我们面对的是联储的"人造迷雾"，强行制造降息悬念，增加预期弹性；已有数据完全足 以支撑12月再次降息的发生。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人钟天 在10月的FOMC中，鲍威尔将当前环境称之为"迷雾中开车，需小心行驶"，并将市场预期向12月不降 息方向引导。自那之后，联储官员普遍转向鹰派，强调通胀的上行风险并支持12月暂停降息：12月降 息预期一度从完全定价跌至不足30%。 鲍威尔的本意或是引导市场定价预期的回摆，保持预期管理的有效性，但从结果来看有些玩脱了，至少 9月非农的数据指向了12月继续降息的必要性。 由于非官方的ADP小非农以及谘商会等数据在9-10月表现较差，此前市场对于9月非农的新增就业预 期并不高（约5万人左右水平）；与此同时，在"供需双弱"的背景下，市场却并没有对失业率的上行形 成一致预期。换言之，此前6-8月失业率的再度上行并没有得到足够的重视，但这恰恰是9月非农报告 中最"扎眼"的部分。 哪怕9月新增就业再怎么超预期，也仅在11.9万人水平；考虑到6月与8月都是负增长，在如此大的波 动中，更无法得出非农已经"企稳"的结论。更何况，从三个月平均增长水平来看，与今年上半年都有 明显差距。 在劳动力 ...

旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利在最新博客文章中表示，美国经济可能正在经历需求下滑，但关税相关通胀 目前看来得到控制。她强调美联储应以"开放心态"讨论，是否在今年已降息50个基点的基础上继续降 息。 在周一发布的文章中，戴利分析了当前经济形势，认为工资增长放缓指向"负面需求冲击"。她指出， 尽管价格增长仍然较高，但通胀水平总体可控，进口关税并未广泛推高物价水平。 戴利目前不具备联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）投票权，她强调，"制定正确政策需要开放心态，并深 入挖掘辩论双方的证据"。 对于12月是否继续降息，戴利没有发表具体观点。华尔街见闻此前文章提到，美国银行认为，鲍威尔在 10月降息后发表的谨慎言论，意味着启动12月降息的门槛已经提高，需要数据来"证明"其合理性，而 非"反驳"其必要性。 关税通胀影响范围有限 戴利在分析中特别关注了关税对通胀的影响程度。她表示，"迄今为止，关税的影响主要局限于商品领 域，很少蔓延到服务业通胀或通胀预期，后者仍相对良好地锚定在我们的目标附近"。 这一判断为美联储继续宽松政策提供了理论支撑。在贸易政策不确定性增加的背景下，戴利的表态显示 美联储认为关税对整体通胀的威胁相对可控。 历史经验 ...

本报驻美国特约记者 冯亚仁 "尽管在'盲目飞行'，美联储最终宣布再次降息。"英国广播公司30日报道称，美联储当地时间周三宣 布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到3.75%至4%之间。这是美联储继9月17日降息25个基点后 再次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第五次降息。 美联储"在雾中驾驶" 据报道，这是美联储今年第二次下调利率，旨在防止失业率进一步飙升。同时， 这一利率也是近3年来的最低水平。受此影响，美国国债收益率和美元迅速上扬。 在决议公布前，市场普遍预期12月将迎来第三次连续降息。但在美联储主席鲍威尔发言后，投资者迅速 下调了预期。受鲍威尔对12月降息不确定表述的影响，美股当天盘中跳水，收盘仅剩纳指小幅上涨。越 来越多的投资者认为，美联储可能采取更为谨慎的立场，因为经济正显现"轻度滞胀"的迹象——通胀高 企与就业乏力并存。 然而对于这一决议，美联储内部仍存在明显分歧。"这次降息暴露出决策层在'应该多大程度继续刺激经 济'问题上的深刻分歧。"美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）报道称，这一争论使前路更加难以预判。鲍威尔 在记者会上承认，在通胀顽固与就业疲软的双重压力下，19名政策制定者对未来利率路径的意见出 ...

【环球时报驻美国特约记者 冯亚仁】"尽管在'盲目飞行'，美联储最终宣布再次降息。"英国广播公司30 日报道称，美联储当地时间周三宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到3.75%至4%之间。这是 美联储继9月17日降息25个基点后再次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第五次降息。 美联储 " 在雾中驾驶 " 据报道，这是美联储今年第二次下调利率，旨在防止失业率进一步飙升。同时，这一利率也是近3年来 的最低水平。受此影响，美国国债收益率和美元迅速上扬。 在决议公布前，市场普遍预期12月将迎来第三次连续降息。但在美联储主席鲍威尔发言后，投资者迅速 下调了预期。受鲍威尔对12月降息不确定表述的影响，美股当天盘中跳水，收盘仅剩纳指小幅上涨。越 来越多的投资者认为，美联储可能采取更为谨慎的立场，因为经济正显现"轻度滞胀"的迹象——通胀高 企与就业乏力并存。 然而对于这一决议，美联储内部仍存在明显分歧。"这次降息暴露出决策层在'应该多大程度继续刺激经 济'问题上的深刻分歧。"美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）报道称，这一争论使前路更加难以预判。鲍威尔 在记者会上承认，在通胀顽固与就业疲软的双重压力下，19名政策制定者对未来利率 ...

本文字数：2781，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 北京时间10月30日凌晨2点，美联储公布利率决议。 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以10-2的方式决定下调利率区间25个基点至3.75%-4.00%。反对票中，美联 储理事米兰希望降息50个基点，而堪萨斯联储主席施密德倾向于按兵不动。美联储主席鲍威尔承认，委员会内部 分歧较大，12月降息并非已成定局。 受此影响，美股盘中跳水，国际金价走弱。 美联储内部分歧 决议声明称，现有指标表明，经济活动一直以温和的速度扩张。今年就业增长放缓，失业率略有上升，但截至8 月仍处于较低水平；最近的指标与这些情况相符。通货膨胀率自今年早些时候以来有所上升，仍处于略高的水 平。 2025.10. 30 结束量化紧缩 美联储在政策声明中决定于12月1日结束量化紧缩（QT)。委员会同时计划调整投资组合结构——将到期抵押贷 款支持证券（MBS）的本金收益重新投资于短期国债（Treasury bills）。 在新闻发布会伊始，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，政府停摆前获取的数据显示，经济活动增长轨迹可能略强于此前预 期，这主要得益于消费支出的强劲表现。 对于政府停摆的影响，鲍威尔认 ...

Core Points - The Trump administration has recently exempted dozens of products from tariffs and proposed exemptions for hundreds of items in trade negotiations, coinciding with an upcoming Supreme Court hearing on "reciprocal tariffs" [2][3] - If the Trump administration loses the Supreme Court case, the average effective tariff rate in the U.S. could be reduced by at least half from the current 16.3%, potentially leading to the refund of hundreds of billions in tariffs and the overturning of preliminary trade agreements [2][8] Group 1: Tariff Exemptions and Policy Changes - The Trump administration has expanded the scope of tariff exemptions, including a wide range of products from gold to LED lights, reflecting a growing consensus within the government to lower tariffs on non-domestically produced goods [3][4] - A future list of potential tariff exemptions, referred to as "Attachment 3," may include hundreds of products that cannot be produced in the U.S., such as certain agricultural products and non-patented pharmaceutical items [3][4] - The administration is increasing the use of Section 232 tariffs, which are seen as a more solid legal basis compared to "reciprocal tariffs," with recent announcements of new tariffs on trucks and truck parts [4] Group 2: Economic Implications and Business Reactions - The adjustment in tariff policy indicates a softening stance, with previous hardline positions being relaxed, as evidenced by comments from U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick [4] - Despite significant investment commitments from companies to bring jobs back to the U.S., there are concerns about the lack of recognition for these efforts and the uncertainties surrounding new industry tariffs and the Supreme Court's review of the President's unilateral tariff authority [5] - A report from Citigroup indicates that the actual effective tariff rate in the U.S. is around 9%-10%, significantly lower than the theoretical rate of about 18%, primarily due to policy exemptions [5] Group 3: Upcoming Supreme Court Hearing - The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments regarding the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which could have significant implications for international trade [7][8] - If the Supreme Court upholds lower court rulings, it could lead to a substantial reduction in the average effective tariff rate and the potential refund of billions in tariffs [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. automotive industry is set to benefit from an extension of tariff exemptions on imported auto parts, reflecting a trend of mitigating the negative impacts of tariffs imposed under the Trump administration [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Exemption Details - The U.S. Department of Commerce plans to announce a five-year extension of the tariff exemption for auto manufacturers, which was originally set to expire after two years [1]. - This policy allows automakers to offset a portion of the 25% tariff on imported auto parts, with a credit equivalent to 3.75% of the value of vehicles manufactured in the U.S. [4]. - The exemption was a result of months of lobbying by major automakers like Ford and General Motors, who are facing increased costs due to tariffs on imported vehicles and materials [4]. Group 2: Broader Implications of Tariff Policies - The extension of the tariff exemption is indicative of a larger trend where the actual impact of U.S. trade policies is less severe than initially claimed, with exemptions playing a crucial role [5]. - A report from Citigroup noted that the effective tariff rate in the U.S. is around 9%-10%, significantly lower than the theoretical rate of approximately 18%, largely due to policy exemptions [5]. - The report also highlighted that between 2019 and 2021, 957 companies submitted over 163,000 tariff exemption applications, with a high approval rate of 61% [5]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Market Reactions - The lower-than-expected impact of tariffs has contributed to a lack of significant inflation related to tariffs, as companies have managed to mitigate costs through various strategies [6]. - Citigroup's analysis suggests that the current trade environment, characterized by "loud thunder but little rain," is favorable for risk assets and provides the Federal Reserve with room to lower interest rates amid a weak labor market [6]. - However, there are concerns that inventory built to avoid tariffs is nearing depletion, which could lead to increased inflation in the coming months [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Domestic economic situation shows a gap between strong expectations and weak reality, with economic pressure increasing marginally in August, featuring "slow industry, weak investment, and dull consumption," and external tariff pressure rising. The government has introduced policies such as new policy - based financial tools worth 500 billion yuan and 1.1 trillion yuan of repurchase operations to address these issues. Attention should be paid to post - holiday policy expectations and the possible correction of the current off - peak season situation [2]. - Sino - US tariff friction has intensified. With the expiration of the tariff delay on November 10 approaching, the market's concern about the risks brought by tariff friction has risen rapidly. Before the South Korea APEC Summit from October 28 to November 1, the risk impact of tariff escalation on the market should be vigilant [3]. - The US government shutdown has entered its second week, and the market has under - priced the severity of the shutdown. Attention should be paid to the follow - up development of the event. In the commodity market, focus on sectors such as gold and non - ferrous metals, and also pay attention to the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products and the impact of Sino - US negotiations on agricultural products [4]. - In terms of strategy, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals in the commodity and stock index futures markets [5]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Domestic economic data in August showed signs of weakness, with external tariff pressure increasing from the US, Mexico, India, etc. The government has introduced policies to stabilize growth, including new policy - based financial tools and large - scale repurchase operations. Attention should be paid to post - holiday policy expectations and the possible correction of the off - peak season situation [2]. - Sino - US tariff friction has escalated. The US has taken measures such as adding Chinese enterprises to the entity list and increasing tariffs on imported products. China has responded with export controls on rare earths. Before the South Korea APEC Summit, the risk impact of tariff escalation on the market should be vigilant [3]. - The US government shutdown has entered its second week, affecting economic data release. The market has under - priced the severity of the shutdown. In the commodity market, different sectors have different trends, and gold is expected to strengthen [4]. Strategy - In the commodity and stock index futures markets, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals [5]. To - do List - On October 6, Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy - duty trucks starting from November 1, 2025. On September 25, he had announced a 25% tariff on all imported heavy - duty trucks starting from October 1 [6]. - The Fed's attitude towards the economy and inflation is complex. Some officials believe that continued easing may be appropriate this year, but inflation has upward risks, and employment has downward risks [6]. - China's central bank increased its gold reserves for the 11th consecutive month in September, and on October 9, it carried out 1.1 trillion yuan of repurchase operations [6]. - The first - stage Gaza cease - fire agreement came into effect on October 9, and Israel approved the agreement on October 10 [6]. - The US will impose additional port service fees on Chinese - owned or - operated ships starting from October 14, which seriously violates international trade principles and the Sino - US shipping agreement [6]. Macroeconomic Indicators - **US Economic Heat Map**: In September 2025, the GDP growth rate was 2.08%, the Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.00, and the service PMI was 54.20. Investment, employment, inflation, consumption, finance, and net exports all had corresponding data changes [8]. - **European Economic Heat Map**: In September 2025, the GDP growth rate was 1.30%, the manufacturing PMI was 49.80, and the service PMI was 51.30. There were also changes in investment, employment, consumption, inflation, trade, credit, and finance [9]. - **Chinese Economic Heat Map**: In the third quarter of 2025, the GDP growth rate was 5.2%. Trade, investment, consumption, inflation, finance, and other aspects had different trends, such as a 5.9% cumulative year - on - year increase in export volume and a 0.5% cumulative year - on - year increase in fixed - asset investment [10]. Interest Rates - The report provides data on the 10 - year and 2 - year Sino - US Treasury bond spreads [21]. Foreign Exchange - It includes data on the week - on - week change of the US dollar against major currencies and the trend of the US dollar index [24][26].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve faces "serious risks" to its price stability goals, indicating potential challenges in maintaining economic stability [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The labor market is showing increased vulnerability to negative shocks, suggesting a weakening economic environment [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the impact of a potential government shutdown on U.S. economic growth, highlighting concerns about fiscal stability [1] Group 2: Policy Stance - The Federal Reserve should adopt a cautious approach to policy adjustments, reflecting the current economic uncertainties [1] - There is skepticism regarding the effectiveness of the "broadly dismissing tariff-induced inflation" strategy, indicating a need for careful consideration of inflationary pressures [1]

Group 1 - Costco's Q4 earnings exceeded expectations, indicating that consumers prioritize essential goods and seek discounts, with total revenue reaching $86.156 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase [1] - Net profit for Q4 was $2.610 billion, up from $2.354 billion in the same period last year, with diluted earnings per share at $5.87, surpassing market expectations [1] - Membership fee revenue for Q4 was $1.724 billion, compared to $1.512 billion in the same period last year, reflecting strong membership growth [2] Group 2 - Costco's strong sales growth is attributed to its promotional activities, diverse product offerings, and the popularity of its Kirkland brand, which attracts a wealthier and more loyal customer base [2] - The company has indicated that it will keep certain product prices stable and will stop selling items if prices become too high, while also increasing local sourcing of products [2] - Competitor Sam's Club is also performing well, with stable consumer behavior and a focus on maintaining low prices despite tariff-induced price increases [3]