2025年11月25日 星期二 股债 市场短期调整,中期趋势依然乐观,高新技术产业持续壮大。国债现券利率盘整,市场趋 势小幅反弹。 黑色 受外蒙一亿的进口目标这个消息影响,叠加供暖季保供会议召开,市场担忧后续供给端有 复产,煤焦高位调整。成材供应无显著减量预期,需求无显著增量预期,关注12月宏观政 策预期对冬储影响。 黄金 9月非农数据意外强劲,但失业率数据超预期上升,市场对美联储12月降息预期不到40% 12月会议面临数据真空,不确定性可能让美联储决策更加谨慎。美联储降息周期、全球央 行购金和地缘政治风险对金价形成坚实的长期支撑。 原木 现货市场价格偏弱运行,辐射松多个规格出现下跌,上周到港量预计环增,供应延续承压 趋势,需求增量预计难以维持,成本支撑减弱,预计原木价格底部震荡为主。 橡胶 主产区降雨影响持续,成本端支撑强。需求端偏弱,下游采购谨慎,R冶约仓单集中注 销,创近年新低,短期内天然橡胶价格延续震荡走势。 油粕 美豆压榨数据再创新高但出口疲软,市场重新衡量大豆需求前景,国内大豆供应充裕,油 厂开机率高位,豆粕供应宽裕,而需求疲软,预计豆粕短期震荡偏弱。 聚酯 俄乌新方案谈判暂无定论,美联储12月降 ...

金融期货早评 有决心有能力捍卫国家领土主权。3）中国将开展太空探源科学卫星计划，探寻宇宙生命起 源。4）美联储主席热门人选、联储理事沃勒：主要担心劳动力市场，主张 12 月降息；以 往紧跟鲍威尔的旧金山联储主席戴利：担心劳动力市场突然恶化，支持 12 月降息。5）特 朗普签署行政令，启动人工智能"创世纪计划"。6）特朗普谈俄乌和谈：可能有好事发生； 乌克兰称美乌敲定新版和平草案，28 点变 19 点，新方案和前版几无相似之处，敏感部分 待美俄总统决定；俄方称欧洲所提方案不具建设性，美国提案原则上可作为和平协议基础。 【核心逻辑】海外方面，美国就业数据呈现显著分化特征，9 月非农新增超预期但前值下 修、失业率创四年新高，后续需 11 月就业数据进一步验证。美联储官员表态再度助长 12 月降息预期，后续关注 11 月就业数据与美联储主席人选落地。国内方面，经济基本面边际 降温，但政策端保持较强定力，市场对政策加码预期升温；政策定力背后既源于对前期政 策效果的观察，也与中长期增速目标规划相衔接，后续需重点跟踪基本面变化、存量政策 人民币汇率：情绪处于分歧之中 落地及决策层表述，以判断复苏动能与政策窗口。 【行情回顾 ...

晨报 铝锭 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周沪铝高位运行。宏观上市场目前押注美联储将在下个月再次 降息。周四推迟公布的美国非农就业报告对劳动力市场的描述喜忧参半， 几乎没有改变美联储在 12 月降息的预期，因为决策者们仍在美国政府停摆 带来的经济迷雾中犹豫不决。 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea futures opened high and closed low with an intraday decline, while spot prices continued to rise, with large - sized urea showing stronger growth than medium and small - sized ones. High daily production suppresses the rebound space of the futures market, but downstream demand has become more active after the price rebound, and the supply - demand situation has relatively improved. Attention should be paid to the order - receiving situation of enterprises after the futures correction. If downstream demand is not sustainable, the futures market will lack upward momentum [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Urea futures opened at 1666 yuan/ton and closed at 1654 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%. The spot price of small - sized urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1580 - 1620 yuan/ton, with a general increase of about 10 yuan/ton. The upstream production capacity is gradually recovering, and the current daily production is around 200,000 tons. The downstream compound fertilizer plant's operating rate increased by 4.29% month - on - month and 2.59% year - on - year, and the melamine operating rate also increased. The inventory has been continuously decreasing [1][2][5] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea contract 2601 opened high and closed low, with a closing price of 1654 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.42%, and a position of 243,246 lots (- 2177 lots). Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 519 lots and short positions increased by 2109 lots. Spot: The spot price continued to rise, with large - sized urea having a stronger increase. The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1580 - 1620 yuan/ton, with a general increase of about 10 yuan/ton [2][5] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The spot price rose while the futures closing price fell. Taking Henan as the benchmark, the basis of the January contract was - 4 yuan/ton (+ 31 yuan/ton) compared with the previous trading day. Supply: On November 21, 2025, the national daily urea production was 207,100 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.34% [8][11]

衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2025-11-21 目录 01 报告摘要 焦煤焦炭周度报告 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 报告摘要 PART 01 本周双焦盘面跌幅较上周有所放大。自11月以来，焦煤盘面逐步走弱，其中11月11日受发改委冬季保供会议的影响，市场供应偏 紧预期已有所松动，当日跌幅较大。之后市场由于缺乏政策预期驱动，现货市场受期货市场情绪影响，成交价格同步走弱，期现 共振，同时随着主力合约临近换月，近月合约面临交割压力，盘面下跌力度逐步增强，空头增仓动能有所增大。短期看，供应存 回升预期叠加钢材产业链盈利不佳下游补库力度有限，盘面支撑减弱，但由于矿山企业前期去库较为明显，自身库存压力不大， 预计盘面下行空间有限，关注盘面企稳情况。焦炭近期随着第四轮提涨的落地以及焦煤价格的回落，焦企利润有所好转，但钢厂 盈利持续受到压制。钢企盈利率的走低会使得钢焦企业博弈加剧，钢厂对焦企提涨的抵触会增强，使得后续再度提涨的可能性减 弱，甚至如果焦煤价格出现回调，不排除钢厂发起提降动作，向焦企要利润的可能。盘面关注焦煤支撑力度，受焦煤走势影响较 为明 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Coke and Semi - finished Products**: The price of coke and semi - finished products is expected to move in a sideways pattern. The price center has shifted downward, and it is running weakly. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic market sentiment, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [1][3]. - **Aluminum Ingot**: The price of aluminum ingots is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. The industry has entered the traditional off - season, with overall weak demand. The market still anticipates a tightening of overseas supply, but the domestic off - season has led to a weakening downstream and fluctuating inventory trends [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coke and Semi - finished Products - **Production Impact**: In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance from mid - January are expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase from the same period last year [3]. - **Market Situation**: Coke and semi - finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation, with pessimistic sentiment, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3]. - **Viewpoint**: It is expected to move in a sideways pattern, and future attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum Ingot - **Bauxite Supply**: During the environmental inspection period, the supply of domestic bauxite in the north remains tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. After the end of the rainy season in Guinea, the shipment of imported bauxite has increased, providing support for future arrivals [3]. - **Aluminum Processing Industry**: The off - season characteristics of the aluminum processing industry have deepened. The primary aluminum alloy maintains a stable supply - demand pattern with a 59.8% operating rate; the aluminum cable has a slight increase in the operating rate to 62.4% due to grid orders. However, most sectors are under downward pressure, with the operating rates of aluminum sheet, aluminum profile, and aluminum foil showing different trends [3]. - **Inventory Situation**: On November 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 621,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from Monday and the same as last Thursday [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is influenced by a mix of long and short sentiments. There are still expectations of a tightening of overseas supply, but the domestic off - season has led to a weakening downstream and fluctuating inventory trends. The price is expected to run at a high level, and future attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend and high - level pressure [4]. - **Viewpoint**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and ore - end news [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is in a volatile state, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81% to 3939.81 points, and over 4100 stocks falling. The 10 - month macro - data shows a decline in industrial growth, consumption, and investment, except for a decrease in the unemployment rate [7]. - For various commodities, different trends and investment suggestions are given, such as steel and ore may be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the medium - to - long - term; coal and coke prices may continue to decline in the short - term; lithium carbonate may see a price correction in Q1 2026 but offers a chance to buy on dips [11][12][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Adopt a volatile mindset and stay on the sidelines for now. A - shares are volatile and declining, with most stocks falling. The 10 - month macro - data shows a decline in industrial growth, consumption, and investment, except for a decrease in the unemployment rate, which may be due to technical factors, export drag, "anti - involution" impact, and the real - estate cycle [7]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy: Although the market's expectation of monetary easing has declined, there is still a possibility of interest - rate cuts. Maintain a bullish view on the bond market due to the decline in fiscal policy. The tax - payment period has tightened the capital market, and the bond market's news is light. The 10 - month macro - data shows a decline in industrial growth, consumption, and investment, except for a decrease in the unemployment rate [8]. Black Commodities Steel and Ore - Future market view: In the short - term, the industry may return to fundamentals after a series of macro - events. In the medium - to - long - term, pay attention to the impact of the Central Political Bureau Meeting in early December and the Central Economic Work Conference in mid - December on the market's macro - expectations. - Fundamental analysis: Demand is weak, supply may decline later, and inventory is high compared to last year. The valuation of iron ore is relatively strong, while coal and coke futures prices are weak. Steel prices are likely to remain weak. - Trend: Steel and ore are expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish on rallies in the medium - to - long - term. - Spot market: Steel and iron ore spot prices show different trends, and the overall trading volume is poor [10][11]. Coal and Coke - View: The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to decline in the short - term. Later, pay attention to the impact of coal - mine production, safety inspections, and changes in downstream hot - metal production. - Fluctuation reason: Coal production has increased slightly but remains low, and coke production is in a loss state. The demand for raw materials from steel mills is still supported in the short - term. - Future outlook: The supply of coking coal may be restricted in the medium - term, but it may increase in the short - term. The weakening demand for steel and the potential negative feedback risk still restrict the prices of coal and coke [12]. Ferroalloys - Market outlook: The volatility of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has increased, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The market is still in a volatile range, and there is no obvious negative feedback [13]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - Short - term: The current fundamentals are good, but there is an expectation of weakening demand in the power sector in Q1 2026. If production resumes at Jiaxiaowo and demand weakens, the price may continue to correct. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips [17]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is in a range - bound state and can be bought on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. - Polysilicon: The industry still has expectations for "anti - involution." The spot price is firm, and the supply - demand contradiction is weak. It will continue to be volatile [18]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Logic and view: The supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. The high cost resists price declines, and it is in a low - level volatile state. - Future outlook: The USDA's November supply - demand report is bearish, and domestic supply is large while demand is weak. The valuation of Zhengzhou cotton futures is lower than the spot price, which limits the decline [21]. Sugar - Logic and view: The domestic sugar supply - demand outlook is bearish. Before the large - scale impact of new sugar, it is advisable to wait and see. There is still supply pressure in the long - term. - Future outlook: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the 2025/26 season. Domestic new sugar production is increasing, and the low cost of imported sugar suppresses the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures [23]. Eggs - View: The spot market is weak, and the futures price has declined to correct the premium. The inventory of laying hens is still high, and the probability of a significant price increase before the Spring Festival is low. It is recommended to gradually close short positions and wait and see [26]. Apples - View: The price is in a volatile state. The acquisition of late - maturing Fuji apples is coming to an end, and the inventory is low while the price is high. The follow - up consumption will affect the future price [28]. Corn - View: Pay attention to the upper pressure on the futures price. The spot price has rebounded, but the supply pressure is still large. The price may correct, but the decline space is limited [29]. Red Dates - View: Temporarily wait and see. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable at a low level and are in a volatile and slightly upward state [30]. Pigs - Overall view: The supply pressure continues, and demand is average. The spot price is likely to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to short near - month contracts on rallies [30]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Fluctuation reason: The market is balancing the impact of supply surplus and geopolitical conflicts. The supply is expected to be in surplus in Q1 2026, and OPEC+ has slowed down production increases, but this has not fundamentally changed the situation. - Outlook: The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and the price is expected to be volatile [33]. Fuel Oil - The price is influenced by geopolitical and macro - factors and will follow the trend of crude - oil prices. The supply is loose, and demand is weak [34]. Plastics - View: Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and are expected to be weak and volatile. However, the high production cost of upstream enterprises may provide some support [35]. Rubber - Strategy: Pay attention to the strategy of expanding the spread between RU and NR. After the price rebounds, appropriately reduce the position of selling out - of - the - money put options. The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [36]. Methanol - View: The market is highly volatile due to factors such as whether Iran restricts gas supply and port inventory changes. The supply pressure is large, and the near - month contracts are expected to be weak and volatile, while the far - month contracts can be slightly long after a rebound [37]. Caustic Soda - The spot price is declining, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. There are factors driving the long - position, such as rising coal prices. It is recommended to seize long - position opportunities [39]. Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase. The future focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [40]. Pulp - The market sentiment has weakened, and the price is in a wide - range volatile state. It is recommended to observe the digestion of old warehouse receipts and spot trading [45]. Logs - The fundamentals are weak and volatile, and the spot price has declined. The inventory is expected to increase, and it is expected to be under pressure [46]. Urea - The spot price is expected to strengthen, and the futures market is also expected to be strong [47]. Synthetic Rubber - The price is in a short - term range - bound state. It is advisable to be cautious when going long and can sell call options after a rebound [48]. Polyester Industry Chain - The downstream demand is insufficient, and the market lacks continuous driving force. It is expected to be in a volatile state in the short - term [42]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Although the short - term fundamentals are favorable, the price has risen significantly, and it is not advisable to chase the rise. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - to - long - term [44].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1][3][4] Group 2: Core Views - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a range - bound consolidation, with the price center of gravity moving down and weak operation, and the market is pessimistic in the context of weak supply and demand, and this year's winter storage is sluggish [1][3] - The view on aluminum ingots is that the price is expected to adjust at a high level in the short term, with the downstream being differentiated in the off - season and the price under pressure for adjustment. The market presents a structurally differentiated trend [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Finished Products - In the Yungui region, short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills has stopped production on January 5, and most of the others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, the price center of gravity moves down, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [3] Aluminum Alumina - The alumina market has a continuous supply - surplus pattern, the decline of spot prices has slowed but not stopped, and the industry profit is shrinking. Some high - cost enterprises in the Jin and Yu regions are facing losses, resulting in a 17,000 - ton week - on - week decrease in production. The total inventory has reached 4.793 million tons, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction [3] Aluminum Water and Downstream - The SMM weekly aluminum water ratio last week was 77.25%, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period. Some sectors are in the transition from peak to off - season, and the aluminum price increase has put pressure on downstream processing fees, leading to production cuts in some processing enterprises [3] - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62% last week. The SMM expects the operating rate of the aluminum downstream processing industry to show a differentiated trend in the short term, with grid orders supporting the slight recovery of aluminum cables, while aluminum sheets, strips, and foils are likely to decline due to environmental protection and the off - season [3] - On November 17, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 646,000 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from last Thursday and 19,000 tons from last Monday [3] Price Outlook - Macro factors have a mixed impact, and the market still expects a tightening of overseas supply. However, with the arrival of the off - season in China, the downstream is weakening, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is increasing. The price is expected to have a short - term correction space [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Steel: Currently, the apparent demand for steel is seasonally weak, and destocking has slowed down. Considering the high steel inventory and winter storage pressure, the iron - making capacity of steel mills in the January contract is likely to decline. The iron ore supply in the January contract is turning loose, and there is a basis for negative feedback in the iron - element chain. It is not recommended to go long. The long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage can continue to be held. For single - side trading, it is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to the support levels of 3000 for rebar and 3200 for hot - rolled coil [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price is strengthening, and the basis is continuing to narrow. If the steel mill losses continue to intensify and the finished product destocking is not as expected, the iron ore price may hit a new low. However, the probability of negative feedback in iron - making capacity is low under the current profit rate and inventory level of steel mills. For the long - coking coal and short - iron ore arbitrage, partial profit - taking can be considered, and then pay attention to this arbitrage again after the coking coal price stabilizes [4]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal futures showed a weak and volatile trend yesterday, with a certain deviation between the futures and spot markets. The coke futures were in a low - level volatile trend. The coke is still expected to raise prices due to cost support. For both coking coal and coke, single - side trading should be viewed as volatile, and 1 - 5 positive arbitrage is recommended, while guarding against the negative feedback risk caused by the decline in steel prices [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East, North, and South China remained unchanged at 3190, 3210, and 3270 yuan/ton respectively. Futures contract prices had small fluctuations, with the 05, 10, and 01 contracts at 3096, 3138, and 3038 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Hot - rolled Coil: Spot prices in East and North China increased by 10 yuan/ton, and remained unchanged in South China. Futures contract prices also rose, with the 05, 10, and 01 contracts at 3267, 3288, and 3255 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - Costs: Steel billet price remained at 2930 yuan/ton, and plate billet price at 3730 yuan/ton. Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar cost decreased by 1 yuan to 3273 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu converter rebar cost decreased by 11 yuan to 3173 yuan/ton [1]. - Profits: Profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions all decreased, with the largest decline in North China hot - rolled coil profit by 14 yuan to - 124 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - Production: Daily average pig iron output decreased by 2.1 to 234.2, a decline of 0.9%. Five - major steel products output decreased by 18.5 to 856.7, a decline of 2.1%. Rebar and hot - rolled coil production also decreased [1]. - Inventory: Five - major steel products inventory decreased by 10.2 to 1503.6, a decline of 0.7%. Rebar inventory decreased by 10.0 to 592.5, a decline of 1.7%, while hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 3.9 to 410.5, an increase of 0.9% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume increased slightly by 0.1 to 9.2, an increase of 0.6%. The apparent demand for five - major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coil all decreased significantly, with the largest decline in rebar apparent demand by 13.7 to 218.5, a decline of 5.9% [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - Warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types increased slightly, with an increase of about 0.4%. The basis of the 01 contract for various iron ore types continued to narrow, with the largest decline in the 01 contract basis of Carajás fines by 23.6% [4]. - The 5 - 9 spread increased by 3.0 to 23.0, an increase of 15.0%, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3.5 to - 49.5, a decline of 7.6%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased slightly by 0.5 to 26.5, an increase of 1.9% [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 477.2 to 2741.2, a decline of 14.8%, and the global shipment volume decreased by 144.8 to 3069.0, a decline of 4.5%. However, the national monthly import volume increased by 1111.6 to 11632.6, an increase of 10.6% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.1 to 234.2, a decline of 0.9%. The 45 - port daily average desilting volume increased slightly by 0.8 to 320.9, an increase of 0.2%. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased by 5.4% and 5.0% respectively [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 229.4 to 15128.19, an increase of 1.5%, the 247 steel mills' imported iron ore inventory increased by 160.1 to 9009.9, an increase of 1.8%, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged at 21 days [4]. Coking Coal and Coke Prices and Spreads - Coke: The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1662 yuan/ton, and the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) increased by 11 to 1700 yuan/ton. Futures contract prices also increased slightly [7]. - Coking Coal: The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1420 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) decreased by 30 to 1301 yuan/ton. Futures contract prices increased slightly [7]. Supply - Coke production: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.0 to 63.6, a decline of 1.5%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 46.1, a decline of 0.3% [7]. - Coking coal production: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 3.4 to 848.4, a decline of 0.4%, and the clean coal output decreased by 2.0 to 433.0, a decline of 0.5% [7]. Demand - Coke demand: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.1 to 234.2, a decline of 0.9% [7]. - Coking coal demand: The coke production of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased [7]. Inventory - Coke inventory: The total coke inventory decreased by 13.0 to 887.1, a decline of 1.4%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports all decreased [7]. - Coking coal inventory: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 0.8 to 80.4, a decline of 0.9%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants and ports increased, while the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased [7].

Report Date - The report is dated November 12, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - Overall, finished steel products are supported by raw material costs but constrained by inventory on the upside, expected to trade in a range. The operating range for rebar may be between 2900-3200, and for hot-rolled coil between 3100-3400. Attention should be paid to the de-stocking speed of steel and downstream consumption [3] - Iron ore prices are expected to continue their weak trend in the short term due to macroeconomic and fundamental pressures [22] - Coal and coke futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure in the short term, but the downside for coking coal spot prices may be limited in the medium to long term [32] - Ferroalloys are expected to trade in a range, supported by cost but facing high inventory and weak demand [47] - Soda ash prices are restricted by high inventory but supported by cost, with limited upside and downside space [57] - Glass prices are under pressure due to weak sales and high inventory, but there is cost support and policy expectations in the long term [82] Steel Section Futures Prices - On November 12, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3038, 3096, and 3138 respectively; the closing prices of hot-rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3255, 3267, and 3288 respectively [4] Spot Prices - On November 12, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3231 yuan/ton; the aggregated hot-rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton [10][12] Price Ratios and Spreads - On November 12, 2025, the 01 roll-to-rebar spread was 217 yuan/ton; the 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4; the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 2 [16][19] Iron Ore Section Futures Prices - On November 12, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 774, 747.5, and 724.5 respectively [23] Spot Prices - On November 12, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 775 yuan/ton; the price of Rizhao Karara fines was 876 yuan/ton; the price of Rizhao Super Special was 670 yuan/ton [23] Fundamental Data - As of November 7, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 234.22 million tons; the 45-port inventory was 14898.83 million tons [26] Coal and Coke Section Futures Prices - On November 11, 2025, the coking coal 09-01 spread was 128; the coke 09-01 spread was 228.5 [35] Spot Prices - On November 11, 2025, the ex-factory price of Anze low-sulfur coking coal was 1660 yuan/ton; the ex-factory price of Linfen quasi-first-grade wet coke was 1430 yuan/ton [36] Profit and Ratios - On November 11, 2025, the on-site coking profit was -121 yuan/ton; the main ore-to-coke ratio was 0.453 [35] Ferroalloy Section Silicon Iron - On November 11, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 42; the silicon iron 01-05 spread was -38 [47] Silicon Manganese - On November 11, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 206; the silicon manganese 01-05 spread was -58 [49] Soda Ash Section Futures Prices - On November 12, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1287, 1354, and 1214 respectively [58] Spot Prices - On November 12, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton; the market price of light soda ash in North China was 1250 yuan/ton [61] Glass Section Futures Prices - On November 12, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1169, 1240, and 1049 respectively [83] Spot Sales - From November 1 to 7, 2025, the sales rate in Shahe area ranged from 100% to 166% [84]