Q&A 近期家电板块的表现如何？有哪些月份表现较好？ 海信家电 20251118 摘要 家电板块在业绩期前（3-4 月、7 月）通常跑赢大盘，当前市场下行风 险中，建议关注估值低位、增长稳健的公司，把握高切低机会。 2026 年家电行业核心增长点预计在海外市场，欧美需求优于新兴市场， 美国受益于《大美丽法案》和降息周期，地产相关性高，预计下半年经 济和消费将转正。 国内市场面临国补退坡压力，但龙头企业报表韧性强。双十一数据显示 价格竞争缓解，渠道库存周转良好，大规模价格战条件不具备。美的、 海尔等公司股息率较高，具备配置价值。 小家电领域，扫地机器人市场竞争格局改善，石头科技等公司通过产品 迭代（如双圆盘、活水滚筒洗地机）实现收入增长和利润率改善，建议 关注石头科技未来表现。 出口链方面，需关注特朗普关税政策影响，具备海外产能布局弹性的公 司（如海尔、美的）更具优势。今年完成产能铺设但业绩负增长的公司， 明年表现值得关注。 从 2017 年到 2024 年的数据来看，家电板块在某些月份往往表现较好，尤其 是 11 月至 12 月。这段时间机构投资者的风险偏好降低，资金流向稳健增长的 行业，如家电。此外，在业绩 ...

□本报记者 王鹤静 李德辉，上海交通大学生物医学工程博士。拥有13年投研经验、近9年基金管理经验，历任研究员、行 业专家兼基金经理助理、基金经理、高级基金经理，现为资深基金经理。 以成长投资见长的摩根资产管理资深基金经理李德辉，经历了过去几年国内权益市场的逆风期后，在均 衡配置的道路上走得愈发稳健。面对这一轮科技股行情，李德辉一方面把关注度集中在那些有基本面支 撑的品种上，另一方面有意识地关注了部分低估值品种，以保持组合整体估值处于合理区间。 近期A股市场来到阶段性高位，综合政策预判、宏观基本面等多方面因素研判，李德辉认为，当前市场 仍处于相对健康的上行通道，后续市场结构可能会围绕基本面做调整，所以要重点关注有基本面支撑的 优质资产。其中，人工智能大模型公司商业化变现还未被市场充分定价，有色金属、机械等出口链相关 公司仍将受益于海外需求提升，这些都是后续重点关注的方向。 坚定看好科技主线 在这一轮科技股行情中，TMT研究员出身的李德辉较早就参与布局了相关核心标的。 "回过头来看，今年上半年，海外扰动因素虽然对市场有暂时的负面影响，但投资者逐渐发现国内经济 并没有明显承压，再加上人工智能端加速发展，市场的投资热 ...

Industry Overview - The 138th Canton Fair concluded on November 4, attracting over 310,000 foreign buyers from 223 countries and regions, marking a 7.5% increase from the previous session, setting a new historical high [2] - The on-site intended export transactions reached $25.65 billion, reflecting a growth of approximately 2.8%, which is comparable to the 3% growth seen in the spring fair [2] - Notably, buyers from "Belt and Road" countries numbered 214,000, up 9.4%, accounting for 69% of total attendees. Significant increases in buyers from the EU, Middle East, the US, and Brazil were observed, with growth rates of 32.7%, 13.9%, 14%, and 33.2% respectively [2] - The report suggests that the recovery of European and American buyers, combined with the recent reduction of 10% in fentanyl tariffs and a one-year pause in the trade war between China and the US, indicates a likely increase in China's export growth [2] Advanced Manufacturing - Sinopec and LG Chem announced a joint development of sodium-ion battery materials, focusing on energy storage and low-speed vehicles. LG has advantages in cathodes, electrolytes, customer validation, and compliance systems, while Sinopec has strengths in petrochemicals, carbon materials, and B2G resources, creating a complementary advantage [6] - The sodium-ion battery market in China is projected to grow from 10 GWh in 2025 to 292 GWh by 2034, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 45%. By 2030, it is expected that the Chinese market will account for over 90% of global sodium-ion battery production [6] - The report anticipates a significant increase in the market's attractiveness for sodium-ion batteries, driven by the mainline of grid absorption and energy storage configuration [6] Company Analysis - Zhenai Meijia achieved revenue of 724 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.16%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 230 million yuan, a substantial increase of 310.28% [8] - In Q3 alone, the company reported revenue of 334 million yuan, up 10.19% year-on-year, with a net profit of 33 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 48.93%. The significant increase in net profit was primarily due to a one-time gain of approximately 190 million yuan from land acquisition compensation [8] - The company's construction projects increased by 30.69% compared to the beginning of the year, mainly due to ongoing investments in the Suqi factory. The company is actively expanding capacity or upgrading technology to lay a foundation for long-term development [8] - As of the end of Q3, the company's advance payments surged by 98.67% compared to the beginning of the year, primarily due to prepayments for raw material purchases, indicating optimism about future orders and the upcoming sales peak, which may support Q4 performance growth [8]

Market Situation - The A-share market opened slightly higher on Wednesday, fluctuated, and ended with a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.22% to 3912.21 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 2.36%, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 gained 1.48% and 1.36% respectively [1] - A total of 4333 stocks rose (82 hitting the daily limit), while 950 stocks fell (7 hitting the lower limit), with notable gainers including Wantong Hydraulic, Heshun Electric, and ST Diwei Xun, which rose by 21.67%, 20.04%, and 20.0% respectively [1] - In terms of sectors, the export chain showed collective recovery, with precious metals, electric power grid, and engineering machinery rising by 3.26%, 3.18%, and 2.93% respectively [1] Futures Market - All four major index futures contracts rose along with the indices: IF2512 and IH2512 increased by 1.72% and 1.50%, while IC2512 and IM2512 rose by 1.73% and 1.77% respectively [2] - The basis for the four major index futures contracts showed narrow fluctuations, with IF2512 at a discount of 29.89 points and IH2512 at a discount of 3.95 points [2] Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% month-on-month and fell by 0.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of expansion [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] Capital Market - On October 15, the A-share market saw a trading volume decrease of 500 billion, with a total turnover of 2.07 trillion [4] - Northbound capital had a total transaction amount of 296.472 billion [4] - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 43.5 billion at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with no reverse repos maturing on that day, resulting in a net injection of 43.5 billion [4]

Group 1: Profit and Revenue Growth - In August, industrial enterprises' profit growth rebounded to 20.4% year-on-year, with a marginal increase of 21.9 percentage points[3] - From January to August, the total profit of industrial enterprises increased by 0.9% year-on-year[7] - Revenue growth in August was 1.9% year-on-year, with a marginal increase of 1.0 percentage points[3] Group 2: Factors Influencing Profit and Revenue - The increase in profit growth is primarily attributed to the release of profits from state-owned enterprises, which saw a 56.8 percentage point increase to 50.0% in August[3] - The "anti-involution" effect contributed positively to profit growth in sectors like non-ferrous metallurgy and electrical machinery, adding 3.9 percentage points[3] - Export chains and the "anti-involution" sectors remain crucial supports for overall revenue growth, with upstream manufacturing revenue growth rising by 4.7 percentage points to 5.0%[3] Group 3: Inventory and Operational Pressure - As of the end of August, the nominal year-on-year growth rate of finished goods inventory fell by 0.1 percentage points to 2.3%[3] - The average turnover days for finished goods inventory remained stable at 20.5 days, indicating persistent operational pressure on enterprises[3] - The average collection period for accounts receivable increased by 0.3 days to 70.1 days, reflecting ongoing challenges in cash flow management[3] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - Future observations on industrial enterprise profitability will focus on the sustainability of revenue growth in the fourth quarter, especially against last year's high base[3] - Potential limitations on volume growth may reduce the space for profit growth driven by price increases through "anti-involution" strategies[3] - External economic volatility and uncertain policy responses pose risks to future economic stability[34]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of the A-share market in the second quarter of 2025, highlighting various industries and their financial metrics [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Overall Performance**: In Q2 2025, total revenue showed a slight decline of -0.02% year-on-year, but the quarterly growth rate turned positive at 0.3%. Net profit attributable to shareholders increased by approximately 2% year-on-year, although this was a decline from Q1 [1][4]. 2. **Leading Industries**: The industries with the highest revenue growth included defense and military, electronics, agriculture, automotive, and computers. In terms of net profit growth, steel, electronics, power equipment, construction materials, and military industries led the way [1][4]. 3. **Weak Performing Industries**: Real estate, coal, and retail sectors showed weaker performance compared to others [1][4]. 4. **Return on Equity (ROE)**: The overall ROE decreased by 0.1 percentage points, with essential consumer sectors achieving a ROE of 10.2%, and food and beverage reaching 20.3%, significantly higher than other sectors [1][6]. 5. **Gross Margin Trends**: The overall gross margin for non-financial A-shares was 17.6%, down by 0.17 percentage points. Sectors like food and beverage, beauty care, and pharmaceuticals maintained high margins, while transportation, steel, and construction showed weaker performance [1][6]. 6. **Inventory Turnover Rates**: High inventory turnover rates were noted in coal, utilities, social services, telecommunications, and oil and petrochemicals, while lower rates were observed in beauty care, comprehensive sectors, machinery, food and beverage, defense, and real estate [1][7]. 7. **Capital Expenditure**: There was a rebound in corporate expansion intentions, although still negative, with non-financial capital expenditure growth rebounding to -5.3% from -7.5% in Q1. Industries like power equipment, basic chemicals, and defense showed significant positive growth in capital expenditure [1][7]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Profitability Changes**: From June 30 to August 30, 2025, industries with the highest upward revisions in net profit forecasts included steel, non-ferrous metals, beauty care, non-bank financials, and banks. Conversely, coal, oil and petrochemicals, food and beverage, beauty care, and home appliances saw downward revisions [3][8]. 2. **Market Reactions**: Following the earnings announcements, sectors like food and beverage, beauty care, non-bank financials, banks, and transportation frequently exhibited net profit discontinuities. Companies that saw significant stock price increases (over 5%) on the first trading day post-announcement are noteworthy [3][9]. 3. **Inventory Cycle**: Most industries are actively replenishing inventory, particularly agriculture, non-bank financials, and telecommunications, while sectors like home appliances and pharmaceuticals are in a passive destocking phase [5]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the performance and trends within the A-share market for Q2 2025.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the Chinese export sector and its resilience amid trade tensions, particularly with the United States - Discussion on the mechanical industry and specific companies such as Chuangxin Power, Taotao Automotive, and Jiangxin Home Core Points and Arguments - **Chinese Export Resilience**: Despite a 30% decline in exports to the U.S. in August, China maintained a trade surplus of $102.3 billion, an increase of $10 billion year-on-year, indicating that China cannot be easily excluded from global trade [1][3] - **Impact of Tariffs**: The actual average tariff imposed by the U.S. is only 8%, significantly lower than the threatened 20%, and many goods from other countries remain tariff-free, limiting the impact on global inflation and trade liquidity [4][5] - **U.S. Economic Conditions**: Weak non-farm payroll data suggests that conditions for interest rate cuts are developing, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in September and potentially three cuts by the end of the year, contingent on inflation trends [1][9] - **Real Estate and Manufacturing**: The Fed's interest rate cuts are expected to directly impact the U.S. real estate market by lowering mortgage rates, while manufacturing return is more reliant on government policy than on interest rate changes [11][9] - **Mechanical Industry Performance**: Stocks in the mechanical export chain have seen significant fluctuations but have reached new highs, driven by valuation increases rather than EPS growth. Companies like Chuangxin Power and Taotao Automotive have strong pricing power [12][14] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Investment Opportunities and Risks**: While the resilience of Chinese exports presents opportunities, potential risks from U.S.-China trade tensions and global policy changes must be carefully evaluated [6][18] - **Future Outlook for Exports**: The mechanical industry is expected to remain a key area for EPS investment despite political and tariff challenges, with a positive long-term trend anticipated [20] - **Sector-Specific Insights**: Companies in the North American consumer and manufacturing sectors, such as Juxing Technology and Lingxiao Pump Industry, are highlighted as having strong growth potential and global capabilities [19][18] - **Profitability Influences**: Export chain companies' profitability is significantly affected by exchange rates and raw material prices, with rising material costs posing challenges [17] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, focusing on the resilience of Chinese exports, the implications of U.S. economic policies, and the performance of the mechanical industry.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the mechanical equipment industry [2][8]. Core Insights - The mechanical equipment industry is experiencing enhanced profitability and significant cash flow improvements, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 7.45% and a net profit growth of 19.09% in the first half of 2025 [4][22]. - The report highlights two main investment themes: (1) Export chain as a key driver for performance growth, and (2) Technological growth in high-end equipment sectors, which are expected to break through existing bottlenecks with strong government support [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - As of August 31, 2025, the SW mechanical equipment sector has seen a 45.48% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 24.41 percentage points [15]. 2. Mechanical Equipment Sector: Profitability and Cash Flow - The mechanical equipment sector's revenue for the first half of 2025 was CNY 998.76 billion, with a net profit of CNY 750.32 billion [22]. - In Q2 2025, revenue reached CNY 544.75 billion, marking a 5.21% year-on-year increase and a 19.05% quarter-on-quarter increase [4][22]. - The sector's gross margin and net margin improved, with gross margins at 23.46% and net margins at 8.27% in Q2 2025 [28][51]. 3. Subsector Performance: Engineering Machinery & Automation Equipment Revenue - In the first half of 2025, the revenue growth rates for subsectors were led by rail transit equipment (+18.95%), followed by automation equipment (+12.51%) and engineering machinery (+8.70%) [33]. - In Q2 2025, rail transit equipment II showed a revenue growth of 15.67%, while automation equipment grew by 12.46% [34]. Profit - The net profit growth rates for the first half of 2025 were highest in rail transit equipment II (+44.66%) and engineering machinery (+22.85%) [40]. - In Q2 2025, rail transit equipment II also led with a net profit growth of 30.04% [41]. Profitability - The gross margin for the mechanical equipment sector was 23.17% in the first half of 2025, with a slight increase in Q2 to 23.46% [47]. - The net margin for the sector improved to 8.27% in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.73 percentage points [51].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the divergence in industrial production, the continued recovery in infrastructure construction, and the weakness in real estate transactions, indicating mixed signals in the economy [2][4][29]. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production shows divergence, with the blast furnace operating rate increasing by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year to 6.8%, while the apparent consumption continues to weaken, down 1.9 percentage points to 0% [2][4]. - The chemical sector shows significant declines, with soda ash and PTA operating rates down 4.1 percentage points to 1.7% and 5.5 percentage points to 12.1%, respectively [11]. - The automotive sector also experiences weakness, with the semi-steel tire operating rate down 0.3 percentage points to 6.2% [11]. Group 2: Construction and Infrastructure - Infrastructure construction continues to recover, with the asphalt operating rate increasing by 0.1 percentage points to 9.2% [2][23]. - Cement production and demand show a decline, with the national grinding operating rate and cement shipment rate down 3.3 percentage points to 9% and 1.3 percentage points to 4.2%, respectively [17]. Group 3: Real Estate and Demand - Real estate transactions remain weak, with the average daily transaction area for new homes showing a year-on-year increase of 9.6% but still at a low level [2][29]. - The migration scale index shows a year-on-year decline of 7.6% to 12.8%, indicating reduced movement intensity [2][40]. Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are declining, with pork, eggs, and fruit prices down by 0.2%, 0.2%, and 0.5% respectively, while vegetable prices have increased by 1.7% [56]. - Industrial product prices are rebounding, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index up by 0.2%, and the metal price index also increasing by 0.2% [62].

Demand - External demand is expected to be better than internal demand in the short term, with August exports projected to maintain resilience at around 5.1% despite some downward pressure due to "transshipment tariffs" and "reciprocal tariffs" [2][11][100] - Internal demand shows signs of weakness, primarily due to limited use of subsidy funds, with retail sales expected to grow by 4.4% year-on-year in August [2][26][100] - Service consumption and investment are performing relatively well, driven by high travel activity and increased private investment in the service sector, with overall investment growth expected to remain stable at 1.6% [3][11][100] Supply - Production remains robust, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.4% in August, indicating continued high production levels, particularly in export-oriented sectors [4][43][100] - Industries with high external demand dependency, such as textiles and specialized equipment, are experiencing significant production index increases, while sectors like agriculture and automotive are lagging [4][50][100] - Industrial output is projected to grow by 5.8% year-on-year in August, supported by strong performance in the "export chain" [5][55][100] Inflation - PPI is expected to show improvement due to rising commodity prices and low base effects, with the main raw material purchase price index increasing by 1.8% to 53.3% [6][64][100] - CPI is anticipated to decline further, influenced by weak food prices and low downstream PPI, with an expected year-on-year drop of 0.4% in August [8][80][100] Outlook - The economic narrative for August centers around "resilient external demand and weak internal demand," with a focus on the effectiveness of incremental policies and the recovery of internal demand [9][91][100] - Overall, nominal GDP is projected to grow by 3.6% and real GDP by 4.8% year-on-year in August [9][91][100]