反内卷逻辑

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玻璃纯碱数据日报-20250904
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 05:25
1.3日玻璃纯碱延续偏弱。 2. 近期市场情绪多变,反内卷逻辑长期化。短期基本面偏弱,产业现实依 旧是供需过剩。因此价格上行受阻,特别是09合约交割在即,价格偏弱。 3. 玻璃供给持稳,但需求偏弱,金九银十在即,终端表现恐难改善, 库仔 累积压力犹存。纯碱供给将重回高位,短期直接需求尚可,由于光伏玻璃 日熔量回升,库存压力大,价格承压。 行情分析 交易策略 期现正套,逢高空配。 细做生存 00000 250 8000 200 6000 100 2000 = 2024 = 2025 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性 任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者 需自行判断本报告中的任何意见 或建议是否符合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客, 推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我 将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。1 ITC国贸期货 LL 7500 F 国贸期货有限公i 流的衍生品综合服务商 入 期 市 市 官 方 网 站 需 有 ...
商品日报(8月14日):双焦领跌 多晶硅、鸡蛋跌超3%
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-14 14:01
Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity market experienced widespread declines on August 14, with coking coal dropping over 6% and coke falling over 4% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1435.41 points, down 10.06 points or 0.7% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1987.6 points, down 16.05 points or 0.8% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Coking Coal and Coke Market - Coking coal saw a significant drop, with prices falling over 6% after a brief dip of over 7% during the trading session [2] - Supply-side factors such as coal mine production inspections and the implementation of the 276 work system continue to disrupt market sentiment, limiting capacity release [2] - The daily customs clearance at the Mengkou port has recovered to over 1300 vehicles, alleviating some supply pressure [2] Group 3: Multi-Crystalline Silicon Market - Multi-crystalline silicon futures fell over 3%, with market dynamics expected to alternate between fundamental logic and "anti-involution" logic in the second half of the year [3] - Fluctuations in electricity prices will directly impact production costs, affecting the price center of multi-crystalline silicon [3] - The demand side has seen limited growth expectations due to the early consumption of market demand during the first half of the year [3] Group 4: Alkali and LPG Market - Caustic soda was one of the few industrial products to rise, increasing by 1.69% due to limited supply pressure from maintenance and unstarted production lines [4] - The average utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity decreased by 1 percentage point to 84.1% [4] - LPG prices rose for the fourth consecutive day, supported by a decrease in port arrivals and a recovery in demand from propane deep processing [6]
玻璃纯碱(FG&SA):弱现实延续,价格承压为主
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 07:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Oscillating [3] - Soda Ash: Bearish [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti - involution logic is long - term, but the weak reality persists. The near - term prices are constrained by the weak reality, with the oversupply situation continuing. For glass, demand has some resilience but is hard to improve in the off - season, supply is stable, and inventory accumulates significantly. For soda ash, supply returns to a high level, demand weakens, costs provide support, but near - term inventory is large and faces delivery pressure. It is recommended to focus on long positions in the far - month contracts for glass and cash - and - carry arbitrage for soda ash [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Bearish. The daily output of national float glass is 159,600 tons, remaining stable. The industry start - up rate is 75.34%, up 0.34 percentage points from the 31st, and the capacity utilization rate is 79.78%, remaining unchanged. One production line restarted this week, and it is estimated that next week's output will remain stable [3]. - Demand: Neutral. There is short - term resilience, but overall demand is under pressure in the off - season. Speculative demand fades as prices decline [3]. - Inventory: Bearish. Enterprise inventory is 61.847 million heavy cases, a week - on - week increase of 2.348 million heavy cases, or 3.95%, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.18%. The inventory days are 26.4 days, an increase of 0.9 days from the previous period [3]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis declined, and the 09 - 01 spread decreased [3]. - Valuation: Neutral. Currently, prices are mainly under pressure, and costs provide support [3]. - Macro and Policy: Neutral. The anti - involution logic is long - term, but the weak reality remains, and overall sentiment fluctuates sharply [3]. - Investment View: Oscillating. Weak reality and strong expectations lead to price oscillations [3]. - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions in far - month contracts for unilateral trading; no arbitrage strategy. Pay attention to daily melting volume, production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [3]. Soda Ash - Supply: Bearish. This week's soda ash output is 744,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,900 tons, or 6.41%. Light soda ash output is 321,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,100 tons, and heavy soda ash output is 423,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,800 tons. Supply increases as maintenance enterprises resume production [4]. - Demand: Bearish. Short - term direct demand is weak, and photovoltaic production continues to decline. Speculative demand weakens as prices fall [4]. - Inventory: Bearish. Total manufacturer inventory is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 69,300 tons from last Thursday, or 3.86%. Light soda ash inventory is 717,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,600 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory is 1.1475 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,700 tons [4]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis declined, and the 09 - 01 spread decreased [4]. - Valuation: Neutral. Currently, prices fluctuate significantly, and costs provide support [4]. - Macro and Policy: Neutral. The anti - involution logic continues, mainly affecting far - month contracts, and sentiment fluctuates sharply [4]. - Investment View: Bearish. Weak reality and strong expectations, with high inventory [4]. - Trading Strategy: No unilateral trading strategy; take profit on cash - and - carry arbitrage. Pay attention to soda ash plant production, glass production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Glass: This week, prices declined. The main contract closed at 1063 (- 39), and the Shahe spot price was 1104 (- 80) [6]. - Soda Ash: This week, prices declined. The main contract was transferred to the 01 contract, closing at 1332, and the Shahe spot price was 1257 (+ 10) [11]. - Spread/Basis: For soda ash, the 09 - 01 spread and the basis both decreased significantly. For glass, the 09 - 01 spread and the basis also decreased significantly [20]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Fundamental Data Glass - Supply: Stable. The daily output of national float glass is 159,600 tons, remaining stable. The start - up rate is 75.34%, up 0.34 percentage points from the 31st, and the capacity utilization rate is 79.78%, remaining unchanged. One production line restarted this week, and it is estimated that next week's output will remain stable. Glass production profits decline as spot prices fall [23]. - Demand: Resilient. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.55 days, a week - on - week increase of 2.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.55%. Real - estate mid - and back - end completion data is poor. From January to June, the floor area under construction decreased by 9.1% year - on - year, the newly started area decreased by 20.0%, and the completed area decreased by 14.8% [26][27]. - Inventory: Accumulating. Enterprise inventory is 61.847 million heavy cases, a week - on - week increase of 2.348 million heavy cases, or 3.95%, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.18%. The inventory days are 26.4 days, an increase of 0.9 days from the previous period [28]. Soda Ash - Supply: Output returns to a high level. This week's soda ash output is 744,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,900 tons, or 6.41%. Light soda ash output is 321,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,100 tons, and heavy soda ash output is 423,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,800 tons. Alkali plant profits decline as soda ash prices weaken [31][32]. - Demand: Weakening. Overall demand is weakening, short - term direct demand is weak, and photovoltaic production continues to decline. Speculative demand fades as prices fall. Manufacturer inventory increases significantly [35].
镍日报-20250807
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 01:44
Group 1: Report Overview - Report type: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [2] - Research team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel price trend: On the 6th, Shanghai nickel continued to rise slightly, with the main contract 2509 closing up 0.22% at 121,070. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,386 to 189,989 lots [7] - Market consumption: The overall consumption is still weak, the trading among traders is not active, the average premium of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel remains flat at 2,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium range of domestic mainstream brands of electrowinning nickel is -100 - 300 yuan/ton [7] - Supply and price of nickel ore: The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia is expected to be loose in the future, and the price is under further downward pressure, with the support from the ore end weakening [7] - NPI price: The NPI price continued to rise, with an average of 918 yuan/nickel point on the 6th. Large stainless - steel enterprises are still waiting and have limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials [7] - Nickel salt price: Nickel salt prices are repaired at a low level, and there may be a slight boost in the short term [7] - Market outlook: The current macro - sentiment supports the nickel price to be strong, the industrial chain prices have recovered, but the oversupply pressure remains. After the sentiment fades, the price is likely to continue to be under pressure [7] Group 3: Industry News - Investment in Indonesia's nickel downstream industry: Indonesia's Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry and considering acquiring the GNI smelter. It plans to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan [8][10] - Battery energy storage system in Bulgaria: Bulgaria has officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh [10] - Innovation in solar cells: A research team has developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with significantly reduced silver usage while maintaining high efficiency, which is expected to reduce production costs [10] - Battery energy storage project in the UK: Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, with the approved total storage capacity exceeding 1.6 GW [10]
镍日报-20250805
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 02:00
Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report - Date: August 5, 2025 - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team of CCB Futures 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The nickel market remains in an oversupply situation. After the cooling of macro sentiment, nickel prices will return to the oversupply trading logic and continue to test cost support. Although nickel prices may have a phased rebound under emotional support, the upside is still under pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 4th, Shanghai nickel fluctuated strongly. The main contract opened lower and then continued to rise, closing at 120,630, up 0.54%. The total open interest of the index increased by 2,996 to 196,963 lots [7]. - The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia is expected to be loose, and the price has further downward pressure, weakening the support at the ore end. In the NPI sector, the short - term price of nickel ore is still high, and most Indonesian iron plants are still in a state of cost inversion. Although the nickel - iron price has recovered recently, the sustainability is not strong. The stainless - steel market is still sluggish, and the acceptance of high - priced raw materials is limited. It is expected that the NPI price will mainly operate at the bottom [7]. - The nickel - salt price has recovered due to the rigid replenishment of precursors and the low inventory of nickel - salt plants, but the recovery space may be limited. The macro has not yet substantially boosted demand, and the nickel industry does not directly benefit from the anti - involution logic. It is necessary to pay attention to whether there are production - cut policies in the stainless - steel industry. The nickel market is difficult to have substantial improvement in the short term [7]. 3.2 Industry News - Indonesia's national investment management agency Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry. It is considering acquiring the PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry (GNI) smelter in Central Sulawesi. The acquisition plan is still in the evaluation stage, and the state - owned mining holding company Mind ID is likely to be the main partner. Danantara expects to prepare an investment plan of more than $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan [8][10]. - Bulgaria has officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh [10]. - A research team in Turkey has developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with almost no silver, which can significantly reduce production costs and improve sustainability and scalability [10]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, which will help Scotland achieve its net - zero emissions and renewable - energy consumption goals [10].
铝日报-20250801
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 03:02
Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - With the further cooling of the "anti-involution" logic, aluminum industry chain varieties continued to correct. Shanghai aluminum 2509 closed down 0.53% at 20,510, the total index positions decreased by 18,206 to 591,031 lots, and the 08-09 premium widened 30 to 70; cast aluminum alloy adjusted narrowly following Shanghai aluminum, with the AD-AL negative spread at -505. Alumina fluctuated greatly due to the anti-involution logic, dropping 4.05% intraday to 3,222 [8]. - Fundamentally, the supply of bauxite is gradually tightening, and the impact of the previous rainy season in Guinea and mine rights suspension is expected to gradually appear in August, providing bottom support for ore prices; on the 31st, with the sharp drop in the alumina futures price, the futures-spot arbitrage window was almost closed, and the spot demand for deliverable products may weaken. Coupled with the temporary cooling of anti-involution trading, alumina adjusted at a high level. If there is a high point, appropriate short positions can be taken [8]. - In the cast aluminum sector, it is currently the off-season for the automotive industry. Demand has weakened while the supply of scrap aluminum is in short supply. Under the double weakness of supply and demand, cast aluminum continued to fluctuate in a range following Shanghai aluminum, and the AD-AL maintained a low negative spread structure [8]. - At the electrolytic aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remains at a high level, and the demand side in the off-season continues to be sluggish. The operating rate of the aluminum processing sector remains weak. Considering the high smelting profit of aluminum and the significant inhibitory effect of the absolute high price on terminal consumption after the price increase, the current macro logic dominates the fluctuation of aluminum prices. If there is a rebound, appropriate short positions can be taken [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai aluminum 2509 closed down 0.53% at 20,510, the total index positions decreased by 18,206 to 591,031 lots, and the 08-09 premium widened 30 to 70; cast aluminum alloy adjusted narrowly following Shanghai aluminum, with the AD-AL negative spread at -505. Alumina dropped 4.05% intraday to 3,222 [8]. - Bauxite supply is gradually tightening, and the impact of the previous rainy season in Guinea and mine rights suspension is expected to gradually appear in August, providing bottom support for ore prices [8]. - On the 31st, with the sharp drop in the alumina futures price, the futures-spot arbitrage window was almost closed, and the spot demand for deliverable products may weaken. Coupled with the temporary cooling of anti-involution trading, alumina adjusted at a high level. If there is a high point, appropriate short positions can be taken [8]. - It is currently the off-season for the automotive industry. Demand has weakened while the supply of scrap aluminum is in short supply. Under the double weakness of supply and demand, cast aluminum continued to fluctuate in a range following Shanghai aluminum, and the AD-AL maintained a low negative spread structure [8]. - The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level, and the demand side in the off-season continues to be sluggish. The operating rate of the aluminum processing sector remains weak. Considering the high smelting profit of aluminum and the significant inhibitory effect of the absolute high price on terminal consumption after the price increase, the current macro logic dominates the fluctuation of aluminum prices. If there is a rebound, appropriate short positions can be taken [8]. 2. Industry News - Ghana has canceled a $1.2 billion bauxite agreement with local company Rocksure International and is seeking to cooperate with a large overseas company to develop one of the richest bauxite deposits in West Africa. Potential partners include the United Arab Emirates Global Aluminium Company (EGA) based in Dubai or a Chinese company [9]. - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were approximately 192,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.8% and a year-on-year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative total primary aluminum imports were approximately 1.2499 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were approximately 19,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 39.5% and a year-on-year increase of 179.4%; from January to June, the cumulative total primary aluminum exports were approximately 86,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 206.6%. In June 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.4% and a year-on-year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were approximately 1.1633 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% [10]. - On the evening of July 17, 2025, Guinea's national television announced a ministerial order signed by the Ministry of Mines and Geology, officially revoking the exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. After verification by SMM, the revoked bauxite enterprises all had long-idle mine rights and no actual mining activities. The official said that these mine rights were taken back by the state without compensation. This action was part of a comprehensive rectification of the national mining registration system, aiming to comprehensively improve the transparency and standardization of mineral resource management [10]. - Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to restart in mid-2026, and the expected delay will result in losses of up to $110 million. Due to high electricity prices, the plant's production decreased in 2021. The smelter was originally in the process of restarting, but due to a nationwide power outage in Spain on April 28, both the electrolytic aluminum plant and the adjacent alumina plant were affected, and the restart plan was postponed. The electrolytic aluminum plant has an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 228,000 tons. After evaluating the power outage losses, the joint venture suspended the resumption of production at the smelter until the Spanish government provided detailed information on the cause of the power outage and the measures taken to prevent similar incidents from happening again. On July 14, Alcoa and its joint venture partner Ignis Equity Holdings confirmed that the restart work of the San Ciprián electrolytic aluminum plant in Spain, which was suspended due to the previous nationwide power outage, had restarted. Alcoa expects the smelter to record a net loss of approximately $90 million to $110 million in 2025, and the entire restart process is expected to be completed by mid-2026 [10][11]
玻璃纯碱数据日报-20250731
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 06:15
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On the 30th, the prices of glass and soda ash rose and then fell [2]. - The recent significant price fluctuations of glass and soda ash are the result of intense industry - capital games. The previous upward movement was mainly affected by their own supply disruptions and coal supply disruption expectations. The market has been trading on the anti - involution logic, with strong bullish sentiment in commodities, and the futures prices of glass and soda ash have risen significantly due to supply and cost increases [2]. - In the short term, glass and soda ash are still affected by market sentiment, with intense capital games. The fundamentals are still not ideal, and the near - month contracts may face delivery pressure as their spot attributes increase. However, under strong expectations, the prices are likely to be pushed up by capital. Industrial customers can focus on spot - futures positive arbitrage, and investment customers can focus on long positions in far - month contracts [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price Information | Contract | 1 - month | 5 - month | 9 - month | 1 - month | 5 - month (Soda Ash) | 9 - month (Soda Ash) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Closing Price | 1320 | 1388 | 1191 | 1394 | 1452 | 1311 | | Change | 7 | 20 | 3.04 | - 13 | 5 | - 7 | | Change Percentage | 0.53% | 1.46% | 0.25% | - 0.92% | 0.35% | - 0.53% | | Spread Closing Price (e.g., 5 - 9 month) | - 68 | 197 | - 129 | - 58 | 141 | - 83 | | Spread Change | - 13 | 17 | - 4 | - 18 | 2 | 6 | [1] Spot Price Information | Region | Spot Price (Glass) | Spot Price (Soda Ash) | | --- | --- | --- | | East China | 1250 | 1400 | | South | 1320 | - | | Northwest | 1020 | - | | - | - | 1350 | [1] Basis Information | Region | Glass Basis | Soda Ash Basis | | --- | --- | --- | | - | 59 | 89 | | East China | 119 | 39 | | South | 129 | - | | Northwest | - 291 | - | [1]
玻璃纯碱数据日报-20250730
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 06:16
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the 29th, glass and soda ash prices were weak. The recent significant price fluctuations of glass and soda ash are the result of intense industry and capital games. The previous upward trend was mainly affected by their own supply disturbances and the expected coal supply disturbances. The market has been trading on the anti - involution logic, with strong bullish sentiment for commodities. The futures prices of glass and soda ash have risen significantly driven by supply and cost increases. The limit - down on the 28th was also affected by market sentiment, with intense capital games and multiple varieties hitting the limit - down, including glass and soda ash. [2] - Recently, the fundamentals of glass and soda ash are still not ideal, but under strong expectations, their prices are likely to rise due to capital influence. [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - The fundamentals of glass and soda ash are still not good recently, but due to strong expectations, prices are easily driven up by capital. [2] Group 4: Trading Strategy - Buy call options on dips. [2] Group 5: Futures Data Summary Soda Ash Futures | Contract | 1 - month | 5 - month | 9 - month | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Closing Price | 1313 | 1368 | 1188 | | Change | 13 | 34 | - 35 | | Change Rate | 1.0% | 2.55% | - 2.86% | | 5 - 9 Price Difference Closing | - 55 | | | | 5 - 9 Price Difference Change | - 21 | | | | 1 - 5 Price Difference Closing | 180 | | | | 1 - 5 Price Difference Change | 69 | | | | 9 - 1 Price Difference Closing | - 125 | | | | 9 - 1 Price Difference Change | - 48 | | | | Spot Price (East China) | 1250 | | | | Main Contract Basis | 122 | | | [1] Glass Futures (Not fully presented in the data, only spot price information) | Spot Region | Spot Price | | --- | --- | | East China | 1350 | | South | 1320 | | Northwest | 11020 | [1]
【期货热点追踪】碳酸锂期货价格跳水,是“反内卷”逻辑失效还是另有隐情?
news flash· 2025-07-29 02:22
Core Insights - The sharp decline in lithium carbonate futures prices raises questions about whether this is a failure of the "anti-involution" logic or if there are other underlying factors at play [1] Group 1 - Lithium carbonate futures prices have experienced a significant drop, indicating potential shifts in market dynamics [1] - The article discusses the implications of this price drop on the broader lithium market and its impact on related industries [1] - There is speculation regarding the reasons behind the price decline, including supply-demand imbalances and market sentiment [1]
国债期货日报:情绪有所回落-20250723
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 10:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The trading sentiment in the bond market has declined. Trading desks are advised to temporarily wait and see. Although the market sentiment has recovered in the afternoon, it's hard to say that the market has bottomed out. Trading desks are recommended to be cautious, and if they participate, they need to set stop - losses and conduct quick trades. Allocation desks should seize the opportunities brought by the decline [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Performance - **Futures Prices**: On July 23, 2025, TS2509 was at 102.38 (down 0.034 from the previous day), TF2509 at 105.805 (down 0.08), T2509 at 108.53 (down 0.105), and TL2509 at 119.35 (down 0.17) [5] - **Contract Positions**: TS contract positions decreased by 2168 to 117,449 hands, TF decreased by 786 to 206,013 hands, T decreased by 1759 to 237,147 hands, and TL increased by 1741 to 156,443 hands [5] - **Base Spreads**: TS base spread (CTD) increased by 0.0014 to - 0.0039, TF decreased by 0.0348 to - 0.0126, T decreased by 0.0416 to - 0.0118, and TL decreased by 0.2093 to 0.1316 [5] - **Trading Volumes**: TS main contract trading volume increased by 11,189 to 46,570 hands, TF increased by 28,276 to 87,176 hands, T increased by 41,699 to 115,034 hands, and TL increased by 38,773 to 154,682 hands [5] - **Interest Rates**: DR001 was at 1.3144% (down 0.0465), DR007 at 1.4741% (down 0.016), and DR014 at 1.5422% (down 0.002) [5] - **Interest Rate Trading Volumes**: DR001 trading volume was 28,815.399 billion yuan (up 1427.9833 billion), DR007 was 735.7825 billion yuan (up 24.3853 billion), and DR014 was 142.8005 billion yuan (up 12.521 billion) [5] 3.2. Intraday News - The Supreme People's Court issued the "Interpretation on the Application of Laws in the Trial of Cases Concerning Disputes over Execution Objections," which refines and specifies the protection of the rights and interests of commercial housing consumers and will take effect on July 24, 2025 [3] 3.3. Market Analysis - The bond market was still suppressed by risk assets during the day. In the commodity market, prices fell in the afternoon due to rumors. The anti - involution logic has been the main line of the recent market, but as prices have continued to rise and the market has become extreme, the sentiment needs to be released. In the A - share market, the sentiment also cooled in the afternoon, with sectors such as building materials, construction, and electricity leading the decline [4]