倒推原因，其实绕不开一个核心问题——全球范围内，目前能够稳定、规模化出口高质量 稀土材料的 主要还是中国。虽然美国这些年不断砸钱搞研发，也试图扶持本国企业，但想短期内实现完全替代，并 不现实。所以，在战略资源上被卡住脖子的焦虑，总是挥之不去。 再往深处看，美国提出要和中国敲定保障性条款，无非就是给自己的供应链加上一层保险。如果未来某 一天发生摩擦，只要有纸面承诺做挡箭牌，美方就可以借机发起舆论攻势，对外甩锅。而且只要自己觉 得哪里吃亏了，随时能搬出合约当理由。这类操作套路并不罕见，但对于拥有实际主导权的一方来说， 该怎么选择主动权，可不是一句威胁能决定的。 值得注意的是，中国出台的是出口管制政策，而非直接禁运。只要采购申请符合条件，大多数时候都能 顺利获批。从这个角度讲，美方如此紧张地追求一份额外协定，更像是担心自身行为越界，被突然断供 打个措手不及。在这种微妙关系下，每一次谈判桌上的表态，都不仅仅关乎经济账单，还涉及双方彼此 间极为敏感的信息博弈。 美财长感恩节前急盼稀土协议，威胁中国不许变卦，美国底气何在？ 美国财政部长贝森特最近动作频频，一边跑到本国新开的 稀土矿物加工中心剪彩，宣称"我们要结束对 中国 ...

Core Points - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, equating to approximately $114,000 per person, including newborns [1][3] - The rapid increase in debt is alarming, with a rise from $36 trillion in December to $37 trillion by July, and an additional $1 trillion in just over two months [3][4] - Michael Peterson warns that this trend signals serious risks to economic stability and raises questions about the sustainability of U.S. finances [3][4] Debt Dynamics - National debt is likened to a large household budget, with the government facing rigid expenditures such as social security, healthcare, and interest on national debt [4][5] - The U.S. government is experiencing a significant increase in mandatory spending, particularly in social security and Medicare, which are projected to consume over one-third of the federal budget [7][9] - Rising interest rates have exacerbated the situation, with annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, nearly double the amount during the pandemic when rates were near zero [7][9] Revenue vs. Expenditure - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts that tax revenue will remain around 17.5% of GDP over the next decade, while expenditures are expected to rise to 23.6% [9][12] - The disparity between spending and revenue is widening, leading to increasing budget deficits and a growing national debt [9][12] Economic Implications - The escalating debt could lead to a "crowding out" effect, where more government revenue is allocated to debt repayment and welfare, reducing investments in education, research, and infrastructure [11][12] - Potential inflation and financial instability could arise if investor confidence in U.S. fiscal management wanes, leading to rising interest rates and a depreciating dollar [14][16] Geopolitical Consequences - The debt issue is eroding U.S. global influence, as a financially constrained nation may be less agile in international affairs and strategic competition [16][18] - The long-term neglect of the debt problem is undermining the U.S.'s institutional advantages, posing risks to its economic foundation [16][18] Political Challenges - Political polarization hampers effective solutions to the debt crisis, with Democrats favoring tax increases and Republicans advocating for spending cuts [18][20] - Previous reform attempts, such as the Simpson-Bowles Commission's mixed approach, have failed due to political resistance, making future reforms unlikely [20][22] - The U.S. faces a critical juncture, with the potential for either strong economic growth to alleviate debt or a market crisis forcing political leaders to confront the issue [20][22] Conclusion - The surpassing of $38 trillion in national debt marks a critical risk zone for U.S. finances, driven by rigid spending, rising interest burdens, and stagnant revenue [22][24] - Without significant political reform, the consequences of continued short-sighted fiscal policies will impact not only American citizens but also the global economy [24]

Core Viewpoint - Greeenme's strategy to address global trade changes involves equity restructuring and forming alliances to mitigate geopolitical risks [2][5][6]. Group 1: Company Strategy - Greeenme's wholly-owned subsidiary in Indonesia, Qingmei Energy, will initiate a capital increase to attract strategic investors, which may lead to the company losing control over Qingmei Energy [2][5]. - The company aims to bind interests together in an alliance to respond to geopolitical influences, ensuring that all investments in Indonesia undergo strict political scrutiny [2][6]. Group 2: Market Position and Financials - Greeenme's battery materials are its largest revenue source, with projected sales of 189,000 tons of ternary precursor materials in 2024, generating revenue of 16.075 billion yuan, capturing 15% of the global market share [4]. - The nickel resource price has doubled since 2020, significantly impacting Greeenme's core business profitability [3]. Group 3: Investment and Resource Integration - The capital increase will involve local Indonesian nickel miners, downstream battery customers, and international investors, with Greeenme's stake in Qingmei Energy dropping from 100% to 29.59% [5][7]. - Qingmei Energy will gain 12,630 tons per year of nickel resource MHP product rights, valued at approximately $109.26 million, which will enhance its operational capacity [7]. Group 4: Operational Challenges - Greeenme's gross margin was 12.48% in the first half of 2025, indicating historical lows, with revenue and profit under pressure due to temporary production halts from adverse weather conditions [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold and silver prices are experiencing significant volatility, influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, with gold prices recently reaching record highs [1][3][5] - On October 9, gold prices fluctuated dramatically, with COMEX December gold futures reaching nearly $4078 before dropping to below $3958, reflecting market reactions to U.S. government budget negotiations and economic data delays [3][4] - The demand for gold as a defensive asset has surged due to economic uncertainty and geopolitical changes, with predictions suggesting gold prices could rise to $4200 per ounce in the coming months [5][6] Group 2 - Silver prices have followed a similar trajectory to gold, with COMEX December silver futures peaking at nearly $50 before experiencing a significant drop, highlighting its sensitivity to dollar movements [6][8] - The industrial demand for silver is increasing, particularly in sectors like electronics and renewable energy, which is expected to support its price [6][7] - Analysts suggest that while silver has potential for upward movement, its smaller market size compared to gold makes it more susceptible to volatility, making gold a more stable investment option [7][9]

Report Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly defined in a comparable way - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly defined in a comparable way - Asphalt: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor) [1] Core Views - The overall international oil prices declined around the National Day holiday. The subsequent market will focus on the pressure of loose supply - demand, and the strategy of combining high - level short positions in SC with out - of - the - money call options should be opportunistically and temporarily closed for profit [2] - The fuel oil market will follow the trend of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil will be affected by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil will face continuous pressure from loose supply - demand [3] - The supply - demand of asphalt remains in a tight balance. With the weakening of the cost side, asphalt is expected to be under limited pressure and its crack spread has upward potential [4] - The short - term LPG is under pressure due to the lack of positive support, and attention should be paid to the improvement of combustion demand after the temperature drops [5] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - International oil prices rebounded after OPEC+ did not significantly increase production as expected. The SC11 contract dropped 1.98% on the first trading day after the holiday. US crude oil inventories increased by 3715000 barrels last week, but the relatively strong refined oil apparent demand in the past four weeks supported the oil price [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market opened lower following the cost side. High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively resistant to decline due to geopolitical risks, but may face supply pressure in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has sufficient overseas supply, weak demand, and the pressure of loose supply - demand remains unchanged [3] Asphalt - The overall commercial inventory decreased compared with that before the holiday. The planned production in October increased by 350000 tons year - on - year and decreased by 400 tons month - on - month. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the asphalt is expected to be under limited pressure [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price of Saudi CP in October was much lower than expected, and the import cost decreased. The market sentiment is cautious, and the short - term LPG is under pressure [5]

Group 1 - The company expects a consolidated net loss attributable to shareholders of approximately HKD 42 million to HKD 46 million for the year ending June 30, 2025, compared to a loss of approximately HKD 12 million for the year ending June 30, 2024 [1] - The anticipated loss is primarily due to geopolitical factors causing shortages in key components for data centers, severely hindering the development of the smart city industry [1] - The company's smart city solutions business has experienced a significant decrease in revenue and operational performance, alongside a notable increase in expected credit losses from accounts receivable due to delayed customer payments [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong government has indicated that the subsidy program for online electricity prices is unlikely to continue after its expiration in 2033, leading to hesitance among investors in renewable energy projects [1] - The company's renewable energy business has also seen a significant reduction in revenue and operational performance [1] - A one-time gain of HKD 32.1 million from the disposal of a hotel in Dongguan during the year ending June 30, 2024, is classified as non-recurring [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall, the report analyzes multiple chemical products, with most showing a bearish or neutral outlook. The main influencing factors include supply - demand fundamentals, cost drivers, and geopolitical events. For crude oil, despite short - term geopolitical support, the medium - term supply surplus is likely, so a bearish view is maintained [1][2]. - For other products like styrene, rubber, and synthetic rubber, factors such as high inventory, weak demand, and cost pressure contribute to their bearish or neutral stances [5][8][11]. 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: After a significant decline last week, a rebound on Friday night was related to geopolitical events. However, considering OPEC+ production increase and seasonal weakening of US demand, a supply surplus is likely in the second half of the year. The strategy is based on the bearish medium - term fundamentals [1][2]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level [2]. Styrene (EB) - Logic: The weekly fundamentals have not improved significantly. High profits, high production, and high inventory persist, and new device production in September - October will add to the supply pressure. The bearish view remains [5]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. After a long - negative break today, the 15 - minute cycle is bearish with a pressure level at 7100. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities at the 15 - minute cycle [5]. Rubber - Logic: Overseas raw material prices have fallen, weakening cost support. Although inventory is decreasing, the year - on - year high pressure remains. The demand is neutral with no major contradictions [8]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. After a long - negative break today, the short - term downward trend is confirmed. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level [8]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The supply - demand of synthetic rubber itself has no major contradictions. The main concern is the cost of butadiene, with increasing port inventory and future supply pressure. The bearish view is based on cost [11]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a new low today, the strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level with a stop - profit at 11730 [14]. PX - Logic: PX profit has recovered, and the operating rate has increased. The demand recovery in the polyester peak season is slower than expected. The main driver is the cost of crude oil [16][18]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The 15 - minute cycle has turned bearish with a pressure level at 6760. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities at the 15 - minute cycle [18]. PTA - Logic: PTA supply has increased, and demand remains high but with weak terminal demand. The main driver is the cost of crude oil [19]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level [19]. PP - Logic: Demand has improved slightly in the peak season, but supply pressure has increased due to new device production. The strategy is to be cautious about short - selling after the price decline [22][23]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The 15 - minute cycle has turned bearish with a pressure level at 6975. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities at the 15 - minute cycle [23]. Methanol - Logic: High operating rate and high imports have led to inventory pressure. Although downstream MTO profit has improved, the bearish view remains [26]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward/oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a new low today, the strategy is to hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level with a stop - profit at 2435 [26]. PVC - Logic: High production and high inventory persist due to high - profit烧碱 and weak domestic demand. The fundamentals are under pressure [29]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a long - negative break today, the strategy is to wait and see at the hourly level [29]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The operating rate of MEG and downstream has little change, and inventory is slightly decreasing. However, future supply pressure from new devices should be noted [30]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a decline today, the strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level with a stop - profit at 4335 [30]. Plastic - Logic: PE operating rate has declined, but new capacity has been put into production. Demand has improved slightly in the peak season but is still below expectations. Further decline depends on the weakening of crude oil [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a decline today, the strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level with a stop - loss at 7270 [33]. Soda Ash - Logic: Supply has increased slightly, and the high - production and high - inventory situation remains. After a price decline, short - selling should be cautious, and there is no upward driver in the short term [37]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an upward structure. After a long - negative break today, the 15 - minute cycle has turned bearish with a pressure level at 1320. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities at the 15 - minute cycle [37]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Supply of liquid chlorine is sufficient, and demand from alumina and other industries has recovered. Inventory has decreased, and the short - term fundamentals have improved. The medium - term focus is on device maintenance and demand improvement [40]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. After a long - negative break today, the strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level with a stop - profit at 2625 [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Polyester Sector**: In the short - term, supply is expected to increase while demand improvement is limited, so the polyester sector will run weakly. In the medium - to - long - term, with unobvious demand peak season features, the polyester sector will fluctuate widely within a range [41][42]. - **Methanol**: In the short - term, although it is the demand peak season, the supply side still has pressure, and methanol will continue to fluctuate within a range. In the medium - to - long - term, there is continuous pressure on the supply side and stable demand support, resulting in a multi - empty game for methanol [60][61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Crude Oil Important News - Israel's strike on Hamas in Qatar has increased Middle East tensions, providing some support for crude oil prices. However, EIA and IEA monthly reports have raised global oil supply growth forecasts, and EIA inventory data shows a seasonal decline in US crude oil demand, making it difficult for oil prices to rise. If the geopolitical situation eases, the pressure for crude oil adjustment will increase [6][7][41]. - OPEC + agreed to increase crude oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, with a lower increase rate compared to previous months. The organization is adhering to the policy of competing for market share, and the new round of production increase in October means starting to lift the 1.66 million barrels per day of agreed production cuts [7]. - The EU is preparing the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, targeting six Russian banks and energy companies, and expanding to payment systems, credit card networks, and cryptocurrency platforms [7]. - The IEA has raised the forecast for global oil supply growth this year and hinted at a possible surplus in 2026. Supply growth is much faster than demand growth [7]. - EIA weekly data shows a decline in US refined oil demand and an increase in inventories, indicating a peak in demand [8]. - The increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the US has verified the weakness of the employment market, which will weaken residents' consumption ability and energy demand expectations, leading to a more pessimistic market expectation for US oil product demand [9]. 3.2 Polyester Sector 3.2.1 Futures and Spot Prices - WTI crude oil continuous decreased by 1.71% week - on - week, while the price of some polyester products such as PX and PTA increased slightly, and the price of EG decreased [11]. - The basis of some products such as PX decreased, while the basis of some products such as ethylene glycol increased [11]. 3.2.2 Supply - **PX**: The 800,000 - ton unit of Fuhai Chuang restarted, and the Asian PX capacity utilization rate increased slightly. Next week, some units will be under maintenance while Fuhai Chuang's unit will release production, so the weekly output of PX is expected to increase slightly [20]. - **PTA**: Some previously shut - down units restarted this week, and the supply increased. Next week, large - scale units such as Fuhai Chuang are planned to restart, and the supply is expected to continue to increase, with the supply - demand situation possibly turning to inventory accumulation [25]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: New units have successfully conducted test runs, increasing the expected domestic supply pressure. The supply decreased slightly this week, and the port inventory decreased slightly. Next week, the port inventory may first accumulate and then decline [28]. 3.2.3 Demand - The polyester end had an average weekly operating rate of 87.9%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56 percentage points. Polyester filament continued to accumulate inventory this week [29][32]. - Terminal seasonal orders were generally average, and downstream demand had not significantly improved. The Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate remained stable, the number of orders from textile enterprises increased slightly, and the inventory of grey fabrics decreased slightly [36][38][39]. 3.3 Methanol Sector 3.3.1 Futures, Spot, and Downstream Prices - The futures price of MA2601 decreased by 1.49% week - on - week, and the basis increased by 29.29%. The price of methanol in Taicang decreased slightly, while the CFR price increased [44]. - Among the downstream products, the prices of formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, and MTBE increased, while the price of dimethyl ether remained unchanged [44]. 3.3.2 Cost and Profit - This week, due to the increase in the methanol spot price, the profits of the three major production processes all improved, with a week - on - week increase. The downstream profits mostly decreased slightly, but the MTO profit was still at a relatively high level in previous years, and the profits of acetic acid and MTBE increased for two consecutive weeks [49][50]. 3.3.3 Supply - As of September 11, the methanol unit capacity utilization rate was 84.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.05 percentage points. China's methanol production was 1.9192 million tons, a decrease of 43,500 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.21%. This week, the number of shut - down units was greater than the number of restarted units. Next week, some units are planned to restart [53]. - As of September 10, China's methanol port inventory was 1.5503 million tons, an increase of 122,600 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 8.59%. The port continued to significantly accumulate inventory, and the supply side was under continuous pressure, with goods flowing back to the inland. The inland inventory was 342,600 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3% [59]. 3.3.4 Demand - Affected by the maintenance of the olefin unit of Qinghai Salt Lake, the olefin operating load decreased slightly this week. With profit restoration and the expectation of some olefin unit restarts, the olefin operating rate still has room to rise. The operating rates of traditional downstream industries fluctuated, with no obvious positive signs [60]. - The restart of Zhejiang Xingxing will provide some support for the demand in the coastal market and may promote port inventory reduction. The subsequent olefin procurement plans and the continuous high import volume need to be continuously monitored [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current main contradictions in the EC market are the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment. It is recommended to continue holding short positions on the 10 - contract and maintain the logic of shorting at high levels [2][30]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 EC Futures Contracts - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2508 had a yesterday's charge price of 2071.0 with a - 0.08% change; EC2510 was at 1436.0 with a 1.10% change; EC2512 was 1760.0 with a - 0.18% change; EC2602 was 1530.4 with a 1.66% change; EC2604 was 1353.0 with a 0.46% change; EC2606 was 1490.5 with a 0.17% change [2][30]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: For example, EC2510 had a yesterday's volume of 56447 and an open interest of 56602 with an increase of 3006 [2][30]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: EC2508 - 2510 spread was - 17.3 compared to the previous day and - 65.5 week - on - week; EC2510 - 2512 spread was 18.8 compared to the previous day and - 68.6 week - on - week; EC2512 - 2602 spread was - 28.2 compared to the previous day and 22.6 week - on - week [2][30]. 3.2 Spot Freight Rate Indexes (European Line) - **SCFI**: Updated every Friday, on 2025/8/8, it was 1961 dollars/TEU, down 4.39% from the previous period and - 1.87% for the next - period change [2][30]. - **CCFI**: On 2025/8/8, it was 1799.05, up 0.53% from the previous period and 0.13% for the next - period change [2][30]. - **NCFI**: Updated weekly, on 2025/8/8, it was 1257.71, down 8.37% from the previous period and - 3.53% for the next - period change [2][30]. 3.3 Recent European Line Quotes - Week33 had an average quote of about 3150 US dollars (equivalent to around 2200 points on the disk). In Week34, quotes from various shipping companies dropped by 200 - 300 US dollars, with an average of 2850 US dollars (2000 points). The PA Alliance was at 2700 US dollars, MSK at 2600 US dollars, and the OA Alliance at 2900 - 3000 US dollars [3][31]. 3.4 Fundamental Situation - In the second week of August (Week33), the cargo - receiving situations of different alliances varied, with MSK performing well, OA being average, and PA being poor. In Week34, cargo - receiving significantly declined. EMC cancelled its independent ship in Week35, and OA added a suspension in Week39. The weekly average capacities in August, September (tentative), and October (tentative) 2025 were 327,000, 321,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively, and 327,000, 300,000, and 287,000 TEU after considering all TBN as suspensions [2][30]. 3.5 Related News - On 8/8, the Israeli security cabinet approved the IDF's plan to take over Gaza City and agreed to the "five major principles" for a cease - fire. On 8/9, sources said that Qatar and the US were formulating a comprehensive cease - fire agreement plan for the Gaza Strip [4][32].

1. Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - For crude oil, the short - term supply is in a tight balance due to reduced exports from Russia and post - war Iran, but political expectations are extremely bearish. Given the current neutral - high valuation, it's advisable to wait patiently for short - selling opportunities [3]. - For methanol, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand. With high spot valuation and limited upside space in the off - season, it's recommended to wait and see [5]. - For urea, the domestic supply - demand situation is acceptable, with price support at the bottom but limited upside due to high supply. It's more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [7]. - For rubber, it's expected to be easier to rise than fall in the second half of the year. Adopt a long - term bullish strategy, and short - term trading can be neutral - bullish, also pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [13]. - For PVC, the supply is strong and demand is weak. Although it may follow the rebound in the black building materials sector in the short term, it will still face pressure later [15]. - For styrene, the BZN spread may repair, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side [17][18]. - For polyethylene, the price is likely to remain volatile as the short - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction [20]. - For polypropylene, the price is expected to be bearish in July under the background of weak supply and demand in the off - season [21]. - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, it is expected to continue to destock in the third quarter. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [23]. - For PTA, there is pressure on processing fees due to expected continuous inventory accumulation, but pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [24]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation is weak, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [25]. 3. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of Friday, WTI crude futures rose $1.88 (2.81%) to $68.75; Brent crude futures rose $1.75 (2.54%) to $70.63; INE crude futures fell 8.60 yuan (1.65%) to 513.9 yuan [2]. - **Data**: European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 0.38 million barrels (4.11%) to 9.53 million barrels; diesel inventory decreased by 0.57 million barrels (4.00%) to 13.77 million barrels; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.37 million barrels (6.04%) to 6.47 million barrels; naphtha inventory increased by 0.71 million barrels (13.60%) to 5.94 million barrels; aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.17 million barrels (2.84%) to 5.93 million barrels; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.71 million barrels (1.73%) to 41.63 million barrels [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 11, the 09 contract fell 28 yuan/ton to 2370 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 22 yuan/ton with a basis of +2 [5]. - **Supply - Demand**: Upstream maintenance increased, and the operating rate declined from a high level. Overseas device operation returned to medium - high levels, and the market's reaction to overseas supply disruptions ended. Port olefin demand decreased, and traditional demand was in the off - season [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 11, the 09 contract fell 4 yuan/ton to 1773 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged with a basis of +57 [7]. - **Supply - Demand**: Domestic production increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.9 tons. The overall corporate profit was at a medium - low level. The demand from compound fertilizer production picked up, and export containerization continued [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Due to the bullish expectation of the real estate market, most industrial products rose, and NR and RU rose significantly [10]. - **Supply - Demand**: Bulls expect production cuts in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, and the price usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears believe that the macro - expectation has worsened, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected. As of July 10, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.54%, up 0.81 percentage points from last week and 5.59 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.55%, up 2.51 percentage points from last week and down 6.36 percentage points from the same period last year. As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, up 0.7 tons (0.6%) [11][12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 60 yuan to 4980 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4860 yuan/ton, the basis was - 120 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 112 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply - Demand**: The overall operating rate was 77%, down 0.5%. The downstream operating rate was 41.1%, down 1.8%. Factory inventory was 38.2 tons (- 0.5 tons), and social inventory was 62.4 tons (+ 3.2 tons). There is an expectation of new device production in the short term, and export is expected to weaken [15]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price rose, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread was at a low level in the same period, with large upward repair space [17]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of pure benzene increased, the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, and the operating rate of styrene continued to rise. The port inventory increased, and the demand of three S products decreased seasonally [17][18]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, the spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation had limited downward space [20]. - **Supply - Demand**: Trade - related inventory was at a high - level shock, and the demand for agricultural film orders was at a low - level shock. There was no new production capacity plan in July [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, the spot price remained unchanged, and the basis strengthened [21]. - **Supply - Demand**: The profit of Shandong refineries rebounded, and the supply of propylene was expected to increase. The downstream operating rate declined seasonally, and the price was expected to be bearish in July [21]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 88 yuan to 6694 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 15 dollars to 837 dollars [23]. - **Supply - Demand**: The Chinese operating rate was 81.3%, up 0.3%, and the Asian operating rate was 73.6%, down 0.5%. After the end of the maintenance season, it is expected to continue to destock in the third quarter due to new PTA device production [23]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 42 yuan to 4700 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 25 yuan to 4710 yuan [24]. - **Supply - Demand**: The operating rate was 79.7%, up 1.5%. The downstream operating rate was 88.8%, down 1.4%. In July, there was less maintenance and new device production, and the inventory was expected to accumulate continuously [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 20 yuan to 4305 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 4384 yuan [25]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - side operating rate was 68.1%, up 1.5%. The downstream operating rate was 88.8%, down 1.4%. The port inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 58 tons. The fundamental situation was weak, and the inventory reduction was expected to slow down [25].