发布日期：2026 年 3 月 3 日 【行情分析】 焦煤高开高走，日内上涨超 4%。2 月 28 日，伊美冲突爆发，伊朗最高领袖 身亡，目前军事行动依然进行中，伊朗进行军事报复行动后，目前霍尔木兹海 峡封锁。基本面来看，蒙煤三大口岸正常运行，进口煤供应逐渐恢复，国内矿 山逐渐复工状态，本期大幅提升开工负荷达 20%，假期后随着矿山的复产，焦 煤矿山库存增加 6.04 万吨，独立焦企及钢厂春节后连续两周库存去化，冬储补 库支撑结束，节后钢厂小幅复苏，铁水产量增加 2.79 万吨，两会期间钢厂减排 或对短期开工有干扰，临近国内重大会议，市场对政策有观望和预期，上海等 多地陆续出台刺激房地产新政策，终端市场表现仍需关注。地缘冲突之下，能 源化工等大宗商品均呈现不同程度的下行，焦煤虽基本面偏弱，但受情绪外溢 的影响，盘面依然表现为上涨，后续恢复冷静后，受下游拖累下，盘面有回调 风险。 【现货数据】 【冠通期货研究报告】 焦煤日报：化工品上行 基差方面：主力合约期货收盘价 1127 元/吨，山西介休基差 143 元/吨，较 上个交易日-33 元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅 ...

不是我想说币圈人做指标，只是目前来看我们圈子里的人去玩传统的这些大宗商品和股票，信息敏感度和接触信息的广度都是很弱的在获取信息维度，最简单的其实是去传统媒体获得一些信息，这里我分享下我这两天获取信息的一切渠道，比如这两天我在喜马拉雅听的《陆家嘴财经早餐》就是取材自传统的金融终端 Wind再举个例子，早在 2/28 的财经早餐中就提及了中东紧张局势相关的大宗商品情报，美油主力合约收涨 3.19%，所以这两天也跟群友一直在玩原油 $CL （不是高露洁的那个 $CL ），那天根据 Hyperliquid 报价是 67，现在 74群友们自己测试下来感觉龙虾在报价方面的幻觉还是挺大的。如果大家对这块内容感兴趣，我也可以再分享一些普通人就可以简单获取的信息渠道 😂Yuyue (@yuyue_chris):上次白银，圈外人说币圈接盘做指标，我是不信的这次海力士 + 三星，昨天各个群 fomo 今天就回调，我有点害怕了 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 3 / 3 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.， LTD 第三次石油战争爆发，大宗商品元年到来？ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 据央视新闻报道，在美国和以色列2月28日对伊朗发动军事袭击后，伊朗现已宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡航道，多 个油轮船东、交易商已暂停经这一海峡运输原油、燃料及液化天然气。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 据路透社估计，数十艘货船聚集在伊朗、伊拉克、科威特和阿联酋水域，位于霍尔木兹海峡以外;另有数十艘 船只在霍尔木兹海峡外的沿海区域停泊。至少150艘包括原油和成品油船在内的油轮，在跨越霍尔木兹海峡的 中东海湾公海抛锚。此外，至少还有100艘油轮在霍尔木兹海峡外的阿联酋和阿曼海岸附近停泊。 能源类商品预期涨跌影响排序：原油＞燃料油＞低硫燃料油＞LPG＞甲醇＞沥青＞塑料＞聚酯＞丙烯＞PP。 此外，白银的波动影响要超过黄金，但黄金持续的稳定性要好于白银，此外欧线相比于2025年涨幅可能更 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for investment opportunities in commodities driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which may lead to rising prices for oil and precious metals in 2026 [2][5][6] - The A-share market is expected to experience short-term volatility due to geopolitical factors, but will likely refocus on domestic fundamentals and policy expectations in the medium term [3][15] - The report highlights a significant investment in AI applications by major domestic internet companies, indicating a competitive landscape focused on user habit formation and commercial viability [9][12] Market Overview - The report lists a "March Gold Stock Portfolio" featuring companies such as Poly Real Estate Group, CITIC Hanzhong, and Mindray Medical, indicating a focus on sectors like real estate, transportation, and healthcare [1][7] - The A-share market indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4162.88, up 0.39%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.06% [1] - The report notes that the steel industry performed well, with a 3.37% increase, while sectors like construction materials and telecommunications saw declines [1] Commodity Insights - The report anticipates that geopolitical events will significantly impact oil and certain petrochemical product prices, with a focus on the implications of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [5][29] - It is projected that Brent crude oil prices could exceed $80 per barrel due to potential supply disruptions from Iran, with historical comparisons to the 2022 Ukraine conflict [5][29] - The chemical industry is advised to focus on low-valuation leading companies and sectors benefiting from price increases under the "anti-involution" policy [28][33] AI Industry Developments - Major domestic internet companies invested over 4.5 billion yuan in promoting AI applications during the Spring Festival, marking a shift towards practical applications and user engagement [9][12] - The report highlights the rapid evolution of domestic AI models, with significant advancements in performance and market application, indicating a dual development path towards general models and vertical industry applications [10][12] - Concerns about AI replacing human jobs are noted, but the report emphasizes that current AI capabilities are more about enhancement rather than replacement [11][12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the AI sector and those involved in the development of general models and industry-specific AI agents, such as MINIMAX-WP and iFLYTEK [13][12] - It also recommends monitoring traditional chemical leaders that are adapting to new materials and benefiting from improving industry conditions [33]

大宗商品 – 铜：春节后需关注的信号 价格可能是首个信号，但库存或许会成为最及时的基本面指标，无论是反映需求复苏的迹象，还是预示潜在回 调的早期预警信号。 核心要点 自 2025 年 9 月以来，中国铜需求一直表现疲软，高价格对相关活动产生了抑制作用。 春节后未来两个月内，铜库存可能会出现累积。 本周中国因春节假期休市，铜市场正热切期待春节后的相关活跃度及需求数据。 价格可能是首个信号，但库存或许会成为最及时的基本面指标，无论是反映需求复苏的迹象，还是预示潜在回 调的早期预警信号。 核心要点 自 2025 年 9 月以来，中国铜需求一直表现疲软，高价格对相关活动产生了抑制作用。 大宗商品 – 铜：春节后需关注的信号 本周中国因春节假期休市，铜市场正热切期待春节后的相关活跃度及需求数据。 这意味着今年的库存累积可能会持续到 4 月 20 日所在的那一周。 截至目前，由于今年春节较晚（2 月 17 日），年初至今的库存累积速度相对较慢，但我们预计此后库存将稳步 增加。 若市场活跃度改善，那么库存有望随之下降； 若活跃度未改善，这可能成为中国铜需求持续放缓的早期指标。 目前，宏观主题仍将为铜价提供有力支撑，但中国铜 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-11 市场冷清，行情震荡整理 镍品种 市场分析 2026-02-10日沪镍主力合约2603开于134520元/吨，收于133350元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.19%，当日成交量 为281436（-135669）手，持仓量为80242（-3734）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约高开后震荡下行，整体呈窄幅偏弱震荡格局。宏观方面，美元指数低位震荡反弹， 美债收益率上行，压制大宗商品风险偏好。临近春节假期，资金获利了结、主动减仓避险，流动性收紧，放大震 荡。基本面方面，不锈钢、新能源等下游企业陆续停工，刚需收缩，备货进入尾声。上期所仓单持续增加，供应 宽松压制价格。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，日内镍矿市场价格延续涨势，但市场交投清淡，买卖双方心理价差显著。菲律宾矿 山端报价维持坚挺，印尼市场则平稳运行，执行现有价格体系，整体市场缺乏新的重大消息指引。中国市场僵局 持续，面对持续上涨的矿价，下游工厂接受度极低，买卖价差巨大。以1.5%品位为例，卖方报盘高达68美元/湿吨， 而工厂普遍心理价位仅在63美元/湿吨左右。市场偶有基于长协或特定条件的成交，但难以反映广泛 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive performance of the chemical sector, with the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index rising by 2.5%, driven by significant gains in stocks such as Tongkun Co., New Fengming, Hengli Petrochemical, and Rongsheng Petrochemical [1] - The polyester fiber industry is experiencing a widening price gap between upstream and downstream, with increased support from upstream costs boosting market sentiment and leading to rising prices for PX, MEG, and PTA [1] - Analysts predict that the polyester filament industry may see a concentrated resumption of work and inventory replenishment after the Spring Festival, making the traditional price increase window in March and April noteworthy [1] Group 2 - The China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index includes major chemical leaders, with approximately 60% in basic chemicals and 30% in petroleum and petrochemicals, focusing on sub-industries with clear supply and demand improvements [1] - The recent performance of the chemical sector ETF, E Fund (516570), has attracted around 1.5 billion yuan in investments over the past month, benefiting from a low management fee rate of 0.15% per year [2]

阅读原文 （来源：吴说） 吴说获悉，据 @andyandhii 和 @defioasis 数据，RWA Perp DEX 在 TradFi 资产的周交易量已达 200 亿美元，其中 Hyperliquid HIP-3 占比超 80% 接近 170 亿美元；从资产类别来看，大宗商品占了周交易量的超 60%，其次是指数和股票；白银则是 RWA Perp DEX 中交易量最大的资产，连续两周超过 80 亿美元，甚至是黄金的数倍。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the volatility of gold and silver prices, highlighting that despite recent drops, gold has increased by 70% and silver by 160% over the past year [1][2] - Hank Smith, co-CIO of Haverford Trust, warns investors to be cautious with precious metals, suggesting that the recent price movements are driven by momentum investing, which focuses on buying assets that are currently rising [1][2] - Smith argues that investing in income-generating assets, such as dividend stocks, is a wiser choice compared to commodities like gold and oil, which do not provide dividends or interest [2][3] Group 2 - The article discusses the shift in commodity trading, noting that many investors now participate through ETFs rather than holding physical assets, which has made commodity trading more speculative [2][3] - Smith critiques the common belief that gold serves as a store of value against inflation, stating that historically, gold has underperformed compared to stocks, especially when dividends are reinvested [3][4] - Cathie Wood, a prominent fund manager, also warns that the recent surge in gold prices may represent a speculative bubble that is likely to burst, indicating that parabolic price movements often signal a trend reversal [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the varying exposure of different commodities to AI, highlighting that metals like vanadium, copper, lithium, gallium, and aluminum significantly contribute to the value of data centers and electrical grid facilities, while gold serves as a hedge against the AI bubble due to its financial attributes. In contrast, crude oil stands in opposition to the AI narrative due to its inflation-suppressing political implications [2][4][55]. Group 1: Data Centers and Power Systems - AI technology is reshaping global metal demand, with data centers becoming critical infrastructure for national economic security. From 2024 to 2035, global data center capacity is expected to triple, with investments reaching $3-7 trillion by 2030. The electrical grid is projected to require $600 billion in investments by 2030, with a total length of 110 million kilometers by 2035 [7][4]. - Data centers and grid upgrades require substantial amounts of copper and aluminum for conductivity, while energy storage systems need lithium, cobalt, and nickel. High-end motors and transformers also require rare earth materials [7][4]. - Each megawatt (MW) of data center capacity corresponds to 60-75 tons of mineral metals, with cooling systems consuming the largest share (35-45%) of metals, primarily iron, aluminum, and copper [9][10][11]. Group 2: Contribution of Minerals to Data Center Value - The contribution of various minerals to the total value of data centers is significant, with gallium contributing 6.0%, germanium 2.4%, and tin 1.2%. Copper contributes only 0.9%, while iron, aluminum, and carbon contribute between 0.1% and 0.3% [12]. - The expansion of electrical demand from data centers is driving the construction of transmission and distribution (ET&D) infrastructure, which will also increase the demand for minerals and metals [13][18]. Group 3: AI-Related Commodity Rankings - The ranking of metals related to AI investments, based on their contribution to data center and electrical grid facilities, is as follows: vanadium, copper, lithium, gallium, and aluminum [20]. - Vanadium's current demand is primarily driven by the steel industry, but its potential in long-duration energy storage is expected to grow as the market evolves [21]. - Copper is essential for AI computing infrastructure due to its excellent conductivity and thermal properties, with a projected supply deficit expected by 2026 [25][22]. Group 4: Precious Metals and Oil - Gold serves as a hedge against the AI bubble, with significant inflows into gold ETFs indicating a growing demand for safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainty [45]. - Silver, with its industrial applications and financial attributes, has shown strong elasticity in demand, while platinum and palladium also have significant industrial uses [47][48]. - Crude oil currently opposes the AI narrative due to its association with inflation control and the political landscape, with potential for price rebounds if OPEC countries decide to cut production [52][55].