Prices of major commodities rose on Wednesday with gold breezing past the $4,000-per-ounce mark for the first time ever. Investors in the oil market shrugged off fears of oversupply with prices risin... ...

今早翻大宗商品行情，差点以为看岔了——一边油价蔫头耷脑跌到五个月来最低，另一边铜价却铆着劲飙到一年多新高，就连前阵子猛涨的黄金，也悄 悄歇了脚。我是帮主郑重，干了20年财经记者，专做中长线投资，这种"冰火两重天"的行情，可不是随便凑的热闹，得把背后的门道跟大伙唠透。 最后说说稍微歇脚的黄金。前阵子黄金连着涨了五回，还创了新高，今年以来都飙了46%，眼看要追1979年的年度涨幅纪录了。但今早为啥跌了？一来是 美元涨了——黄金是以美元计价的，美元贵了，黄金自然显得"贵"，买的人就少；二来是不少投资者见好就收，毕竟涨了这么多，落袋为安没毛病。再加 上美国政府停摆，本该发的经济数据都推迟了，交易员手里没太多新线索，黄金暂时歇口气也正常。 我做了20年财经记者，看大宗商品最忌讳"单看一条线"——油价跌不是单纯的"差"，铜价涨也不是随便的"疯"，黄金回落更不是"凉了"，每一个涨跌背 后，都是供应、需求、政策、预期在掰手腕。对咱们中长线投资者来说，不用被单日的涨跌晃了神，得盯着核心逻辑：OPEC+最终到底增不增产？铜的 供应问题能不能缓解？美联储降息的节奏稳不稳？把这些摸清楚，比盯着屏幕看涨跌有用多了。我是帮主郑重，后面大 ...

2025年前三季度落下帷幕，在这场结构性牛市中，公募基金行业迎来了丰收年，主动权益类基金凭借出 色的表现，打了一场漂亮的"翻身仗"。 Wind数据显示，在AI算力和创新药两大景气赛道的支撑下，截至9月30日，全市场53只基金年内收益率 翻倍，科技成长风格成为最大赢家；同时，以黄金为代表的大宗商品也高歌猛进，黄金ETF年内普遍上 涨超40%。 53只"翻倍基"横空出世 在今年的结构性行情中，主动权益基金表现尤为突出，涌现出一批业绩惊人的"翻倍基"。 Wind数据显示，截至9月30日，年内共有53只基金的收益率超过100%，其中主动权益基金达到了42 只，占比近八成，充分体现了基金经理在科技成长等热门赛道上的精准布局能力。 紧随其后的是张韡管理的汇添富香港优势精选A，年内收益率高达155.09%，该基金也是QDII基金中的 领跑者。二季报显示，该基金重仓港股创新药，前五大重仓股分别为映恩生物、科伦博泰生物、信达生 物、和黄医药、康诺亚。 此外，冯炉丹管理的中欧数字经济A则以140.86%的收益率位列第三，吴海宁管理的恒越优势精选、韩 浩管理的中航机遇领航分别以128.21%、127.17%的收益率排名第四和第五， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights that the AI computing power and innovative pharmaceuticals sectors are driving significant market performance, with 53 funds doubling their annual returns as of September 30 [1] - The technology growth style has emerged as the biggest winner in the market, reflecting strong investor interest and performance in this sector [1] - Commodities, particularly gold, have also seen substantial gains, with gold ETFs generally rising over 40% year-to-date [1]

So, do you agree with that sentiment that the ADP report it has a greater waiting and could be a market mover and a market looking for data about the economy, looking for data about jobs. >> There's no question that uh with the Fed really trying to be data dependent, people are going to look at it. Uh but there's there's a lot of data right now and I think uh we we're coming off a strong earnings season.uh there is going to be more Fed cuts coming we believe whether it's you know this month the market think ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the US inflation remains stable, with the Dow Jones reaching a high of 46,714 points, marking the 28th record close for the S&P 500 this year [9] - The report notes a continuous inflow of capital from mainland China into Hong Kong stocks, increasing from approximately 1,108.8 billion to 1,152.7 billion [9] - The investment strategy favors technology stocks and leading companies with AI application potential [9] - The report recommends structured products linked to AI indices, balancing yield and growth potential [9] - It suggests increasing investments in investment-grade corporate bonds to replace cash and short-term government bonds [9] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,128.20, down 1.35%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 2.89% [14] - The report indicates that the Chinese economy is showing signs of weakening growth momentum, with GDP expected to decline to around 4.5% in Q3 and further to about 4.3% in the second half of the year [12] - The report mentions a "deposit migration" phenomenon in mainland China, where funds are moving from fixed deposits to equity investment products, with only 11% of the total deposits having migrated so far [12] Company Focus - Qingdao Beer Co. reported a net profit of 3.9 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, driven by margin improvements and product upgrades [19] - BYD has adjusted its sales target downwards but anticipates a new growth phase in production and sales in the coming months [12] - The report highlights PACCAR Inc. as benefiting from a new 25% tariff on imported heavy trucks, enhancing its competitive pricing advantage [22] - GlobalFoundries Inc. is expected to benefit from a new regulatory policy encouraging domestic semiconductor production, which may lead to increased local orders and incentives [23]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.9.26」 宏观市场周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 添加客服 作者：廖宏斌 业务咨询 目录 1、本周小结及下周 配置建议 2、重要新闻及事件 3、本周国内外经济 数据 4、下周重要经济指 标及经济大事 「本周小结及下周配置建议」 图1、国内股指期货结算价 图2、国债期货结算价：2、5、10年期 2000.0000 3000.0000 4000.0000 5000.0000 6000.0000 7000.0000 8000.0000 上证50期货 沪深300期货 中证500期货 来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院 来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院 4 98 100 102 104 106 108 110 CFFEX2年期国债期货 CFFEX5年期国债期货 CFFEX10年期国债期货 「本周小结及下周配置建议」 | 股票 | 债券 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪深 300 +1.07% | 10 年国债到期收益率+0.05%/本周变动+0.10BP | | | 沪深 300 股指 ...

本文来自微信公众号：局外人的视界，作者：卡夫卡不忙了，题图来自：视觉中国 老粉丝都应该知道其中的道理，金价其实对应的是美元的含金量。 铜价暴涨，意料之中。 大家有没有思考过一个问题，为什么钱越印越多，还能印出结构性通缩来呢？ 这波因为地产大跌，大家体感强烈，不知道有没有人还记得10年前，2015年那一波大宗商品的暴跌？ 911之后，大宗商品开启了一波大牛市，原油价格从20多一口气涨到140+，次贷危机爆发后，狠砸了一 波，但随着全球集体启动印钞机，很快又反弹起来了。 2014年，美国终结QE，大宗商品开始走熊，一波暴跌，在此之前，华尔街先把黄金的价格给砸下来 了。 2013年中国大妈跟华尔街黄金大空头的对决还上了全球财经头条，结果是孤立无援的大妈被锤，但拉长 周期看，大妈们真的输了吗？当年大妈们抄底黄金均价1400美元/盎司，暴跌之后，金价也扛住了1000 美元的大关，随后一路涨到了如今的3700美元之上。 无非输了时间罢了。 每一次大宗商品大跌，带头的都是黄金，反之亦然！ 一直到现在，美国内部还有很多人认为911是一场阴谋，在巴以冲突爆发之前，我总以为阴谋论者太夸 张了。最近这几年内塔尼亚胡的种种骚操作让大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The conclusion of the "Super Central Bank Week" has led to a shift in macro trading logic, with the Federal Reserve's expected 25 basis point rate cut prompting adjustments in major asset pricing and the emergence of new trading strategies [1] Market Performance - Global stock markets exhibited mixed results, with U.S. stocks initially declining before reaching new highs, while A-shares experienced a pullback after a rally [1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) saw a slight increase, while the VIX index, indicating market volatility, rose significantly [1] - U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index initially fell but later rebounded, showcasing varied performances among non-U.S. currencies [1] Commodity Trends - Commodity price movements were divergent, with gold experiencing profit-taking and high volatility, while copper prices fell sharply, negatively impacting the non-ferrous sector [1] - Oil prices remained weak, contributing to a notable decline in the CRB index for the week [1] - In the domestic market, a "de-involution" trend led to strong gains in black commodities, particularly coking coal and coke, with glass and soda ash also rising [1] Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic bond market showed mixed results, with forward contracts under pressure, and stock indices displaying divergence, particularly with growth stocks showing resilience while value stocks fell sharply [1] - The Wind commodity index recorded a weekly change of -0.19%, with 4 sectors rising and 6 sectors declining [1] - The overall commodity market exhibited a pattern of internal strength and external weakness, with precious metals retreating and non-ferrous metals declining significantly, while coal, coke, steel, and non-metallic building materials surged due to the de-involution trend [1] Future Outlook - As the rate cut process is halfway paused before a potential restart, global macro trading logic is expected to gradually shift [1] - The Federal Reserve's rate cut is anticipated to influence commodities through multiple channels, with overall positive effects but varying impacts across different commodities [1] - Future commodity price trends are likely to diverge, reflecting different pricing and trading logic [1]

Group 1: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have declined for three consecutive days, with WTI crude closing at $62.68 per barrel, influenced by reduced concerns over "secondary tariffs" and contract rollovers [3][5] - The market's initial fear of tariff increases affecting oil demand has eased, leading to a decrease in upward pressure on oil prices [3] - The short-term fluctuations in oil prices are attributed to trading activities rather than a change in long-term trends [5] Group 2: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have increased by 1.06%, closing at $3682.84 per ounce, following the Federal Reserve's announcement of a 25 basis point rate cut [3][5] - Despite a temporary drop after the Fed's announcement, the market is stabilizing and seeking a new support level, with expectations of further rate cuts this year [3] - The long-term support for gold prices is driven by monetary policy easing, which has contributed to a 39% increase in gold prices this year [5] Group 3: Copper Market Outlook - Copper prices have risen by 0.49%, nearing $10,000 per ton, with expectations of a supply shortage and recovery in global manufacturing next year [4] - Citigroup's report indicates that while demand may face pressure in the coming months, copper prices are expected to reach $12,000 per ton next year [4] - The anticipated average copper price for the fourth quarter is projected to be around $10,000 per ton, reflecting a stable market response to future supply-demand dynamics [4]