Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, indicating a mixed economic outlook with some sectors showing resilience while others face challenges. Group 1: Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for August 2025 is at 46.37, up by 0.61% month-on-month [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in August 2025 is -2.8 percentage points, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4] - The current price of London gold is at $3759 per ounce [4] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Recent price changes include rebar down by 1.22%, cement price index up by 2.51%, rubber up by 0.34%, coking coal up by 2.78%, and iron ore up by 0.25% [5] - National capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tires have changed by +0.51 percentage points, -1.00 percentage points, +7.3 percentage points, and +0.06 percentage points respectively [5] - The average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in mid-September decreased by 0.67% month-on-month [5] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and glass have increased by 0.15% and remained unchanged respectively, with glass profit margins at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide at -1163 yuan/ton [6] - The operating rate for flat glass this week is at 76.01% [6] Group 4: Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel down by 0.25%, copper up by 3.29%, and aluminum down by 0.05%, with corresponding profit margins showing mixed results [7] - The national operating rate for semi-steel tires is at 73.58%, down by 0.08 percentage points [7] Group 5: Subcategories - The price of electrolytic copper has reached a new high since June at 82680 yuan/ton, up by 3.29% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is at 20830 yuan/ton, with estimated profits of 3665 yuan/ton, up by 2.98% [8] - The price of tungsten concentrate is at 269000 yuan/ton, down by 2.00% [8] Group 6: Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of London spot gold to silver has reached a new low for the year at 84 times [9] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is at 4.00, with the price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel at 150 yuan/ton [9] - The price difference between small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) is 130 yuan/ton, up by 18.18% from last week [9] Group 7: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in August 2025 is at 47.20%, up by 0.1 percentage points [10] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is at 1087.41 points, down by 2.93% [10] - The capacity utilization rate for crude steel in the U.S. is at 77.40%, down by 0.50 percentage points [10] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index has increased by 1.07%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being industrial metals at +5.15% [11] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 PB is at 33.74% and 88.92% respectively [11] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector is 0.51, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [11]

何宁（分析师） 郭晓彬（分析师） hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 guoxiaobin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070004 供需：建筑开工分化，工业开工偏强，需求略弱 1.建筑开工：石油沥青装置开工率明显回升。最近两周（9 月 15 日至 9 月 28 日）， 水泥发运率、磨机运转率仍位于同期历史中低位，石油沥青装置开工率回升至历 史中位。基建项目水泥直供量有所回落，房建水泥用量亦有所回落，资金方面， 建筑工地资金到位率同比低于 2024 年同期。 2.工业生产端，整体景气度仍处于历史中高位。最近两周，工业开工整体景气度 仍处于历史中高位。化工链中 PX 开工率维持历史中高位，PTA 开工率维持历史 中低位，汽车半钢胎开工率仅低于 2024 年同期，焦化企业开工率维持历史中高 位。 2025 年 09 月 29 日 9 月出口或仍有强韧性 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济专题 2.二手房：成交量明显转暖。价格方面，截至 9 月 15 日，二手房出售挂牌价指 数环比延续回落；成交量方面，最近两周(9 月 15 日至 9 月 28 日)，北京、上海、 深圳二 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached a historic high of $3,755 per ounce, reflecting a significant increase driven by market expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Gold prices increased by 0.22% today, marking a new all-time high [1] - Over the past 12 months, gold prices fluctuated between $2,500 and $3,700 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 42.8% [1] Group 2: Market Influences - Strong expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have significantly impacted commodity prices, including gold [1] - Weak inflation data, rising unemployment rates, and pressure from the Trump administration contributed to the Federal Reserve's decision to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points last week [1] - The market anticipates additional rate cuts during the Federal Reserve's meetings in October and December [1]

周三（9月24日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报97.35，涨幅0.13%，开盘价为97.23。凯投宏观的气候与 大宗商品经济学家HamadHussain在一份报告中写道，美联储最近的降息似乎并未对大宗商品价格构成 重大影响。 他表示，美国利率下降可能带来的任何价格提振作用，或将被其他因素抵消，并补充称，大宗商品市场 的基本面普遍看来疲软。他指出，由于需求增长放缓以及欧佩克+增加供应，从现在到2026年底，油价 可能会走低。他表示："另一个关键因素是，美联储降息在多大程度上已被市场消化，这可能会限制对 大宗商品价格的任何额外支撑，甚至可能构成阻力。" 美元指数正测试关键技术水平，可能形成看跌收盘反转顶形态。若该形态得到确认，可能引发指数回调 至50%支撑位97.021。上行方面，50日平均线98.070及枢轴阻力位98.238构成强劲阻力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant trends in liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, and industrial sectors, indicating potential investment opportunities and market dynamics in the coming months [4][5][6][7][10][11]. Liquidity - The London gold spot price reached a historical high of $3685 per ounce [4]. - The BCI small enterprise financing environment index for August 2025 was 46.37, with a month-on-month increase of 0.61% [4]. - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -2.8 percentage points in August 2025, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [4]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - In early September, the average daily crude steel output of key enterprises increased by 7.19% month-on-month [5]. - Price changes for key materials included rebar up by 2.18%, cement price index up by 0.62%, and coal prices showing mixed trends [5]. - The national capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tires increased by 0.17 percentage points, 9.20 percentage points, 4.2 percentage points, and 0.07 percentage points respectively [5]. Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass remained stable, with glass gross profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide at -1268 yuan/ton [6]. - The operating rate for flat glass this week was 76.01% [6]. Industrial Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was at a five-year high of 73.66%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.20 percentage points [7]. - Major commodity prices showed varied performance, with cold-rolled steel up by 8.99% and copper down by 1.34% [7]. Subcategories - Iron ore prices reached a six-month high, with graphite electrode prices stable at 18000 yuan/ton [8]. - The price of electrolytic aluminum was 20840 yuan/ton, down by 1.00%, with a calculated profit of 3559 yuan/ton [8]. - The price of molybdenum concentrate was 4445 yuan/ton, down by 1.55%, while tungsten concentrate was 274500 yuan/ton, down by 4.19% [8]. Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.07 this week, with various price differentials noted among different steel products [9]. - The price difference between small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) was 110 yuan/ton, showing a decrease of 8.33% from the previous week [9]. Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in August 2025 was 47.20%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1 percentage points [10]. - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1120.23 points, down by 0.45% [10]. - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate was 79.20%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.10 percentage points [10]. Valuation Percentiles - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index decreased by 0.44%, with the engineering machinery sector performing best at +6.10% [11]. - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel and industrial metals sectors relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 35.56% and 81.90% respectively [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - Iron ore prices have reached a six-month high, indicating strong demand in the market [2][3] - The construction and real estate sectors show signs of recovery, with a notable increase in crude steel production [24][44] - The profitability of certain materials, such as titanium dioxide and flat glass, remains low, reflecting challenges in the real estate completion chain [78] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The London gold spot price has reached a historical high of $3685 per ounce, reflecting strong global liquidity [11] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for August 2025 is at 46.37, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.61% [20] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel production of key enterprises in early September increased by 7.19% month-on-month [24] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is at 90.35%, up by 0.17 percentage points [44] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year high, indicating robust demand in the industrial sector [2] - Major commodity prices show varied performance, with cold-rolled steel prices up by 8.99% and copper down by 1.34% [2] Sub-sectors - The price of iron ore is at 793 yuan per wet ton, reflecting a 0.6% increase week-on-week [10] - The price of graphite electrodes remains stable at 18,000 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease in comprehensive profit margins [10] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.44%, while the engineering machinery sector showed the best performance with a 6.10% increase [4] - The PB ratio of the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.52, indicating potential for recovery [4] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in August 2025 is at 47.20%, reflecting a slight month-on-month increase [3]

Core Insights - The recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have not significantly impacted commodity prices [1] - Any potential price support from the decline in U.S. interest rates may be offset by other factors, indicating a generally weak fundamental outlook for the commodity market [1] - Oil prices are expected to decline from now until the end of 2026 due to slowing demand growth and increased supply from OPEC+ [1] - The extent to which the Fed's rate cuts have been priced in by the market may limit any additional support for commodity prices and could even act as a resistance [1]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant trends in liquidity, construction, real estate, and industrial sectors, indicating fluctuations in prices and production levels across various commodities and industries. Group 1: Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for August 2025 is at 46.37, with a month-on-month increase of 0.61% [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference is at -2.8 percentage points in August 2025, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [4] - The current price of London gold is at $3643 per ounce [4] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - In late August, the average daily production of crude steel from key enterprises decreased by 7.94% month-on-month [5] - Price changes this week include rebar down by 1.53%, cement price index down by 0.57%, rubber down by 1.00%, coke down by 3.40%, coking coal down by 0.93%, and iron ore up by 0.38% [5] - The national blast furnace capacity utilization rate increased by 4.39 percentage points, cement by 8.00 percentage points, while asphalt and full-steel tire operating rates changed by -1.8 percentage points and +5.81 percentage points respectively [5] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass increased by 0.39% and remained unchanged respectively, with flat glass gross profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide at -1277 yuan/ton [6] - The operating rate for flat glass this week is at 76.01% [6] Group 4: Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity price changes this week include cold-rolled steel down by 2.63%, copper up by 1.36%, and aluminum up by 1.79%, with corresponding gross profit changes of -591.05%, a loss of 0.59%, and an increase of 13.04% respectively [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is at 73.46%, with a month-on-month increase of 5.99 percentage points [7] Group 5: Subcategories - The price of electrolytic aluminum reached a year-to-date high at 21,050 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 1.79% and estimated profit at 3,683 yuan/ton (excluding tax) [8] - The price of copper is at 81,140 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 1.36% [8] - The price of molybdenum concentrate is at 4,515 yuan/ton, down by 1.95%, while tungsten concentrate is at 286,500 yuan/ton, down by 0.87% [8] Group 6: Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is at 4.00 this week [9] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 240 yuan/ton, while the price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 290 yuan/ton, down by 40 yuan/ton [9] - The price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) is 120 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 20.00% [9] Group 7: Export Chain - In August 2025, China's PMI new export orders are at 47.20%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1 percentage points [10] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index is at 1,125.30 points this week, down by 2.07% [10] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is at 79.20%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.10 percentage points [10] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.38%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being real estate at +5.98% [11] - The PB ratio of the general steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is currently at 0.53, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [11]

铜价交投在2024年5月以来最高收盘水平下方，交易员正为美联储自特朗普重返白宫后的首次降息做准 备。工业金属本周开局走势强劲，伦敦期铜周一度上涨超1%，年内累计涨幅突破15%。投资者普遍预 期美联储本周将降息25个基点，市场重点关注央行对后续宽松路径的表述。降息通常通过刺激需求和削 弱美元来提振大宗商品价格，使其他货币持有者的购买成本降低。截至目前，伦敦金属交易所期铜价格 跌约0.4%至每吨10,150美元。期铝价格从六个月高点小幅回落，锌价则从年内峰值微跌。 ...

Core Viewpoints - The transmission effect of upstream price increases to downstream is weakening, with PPI showing marginal improvement in August due to significant recovery in commodity prices [2][10][70] - The overall PPI remained at 0% month-on-month, primarily due to low capacity utilization in downstream sectors, which hindered the reflection of upstream price increases [2][10][70] PPI Analysis - In August, PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.9%, an improvement of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with market expectations [2][10][70] - Major commodities like coal and steel continued to rise, contributing positively to PPI, while international oil price declines negatively impacted domestic oil prices [2][10][70] - Downstream sectors are experiencing significant price reductions, with PPI declines in industries such as food and automobiles, which saw respective month-on-month decreases of 0.3% [2][10][70] CPI Analysis - CPI year-on-year fell to -0.4% in August, influenced by a high base from the previous year and weak food prices, with food CPI dropping by 4.3% [3][23][50] - The core CPI is expanding, with core goods CPI rising by 0.1 percentage points to 0.9%, driven by high gold prices and demand from the third batch of national subsidies [3][29][71] - Service CPI showed slight growth, supported by summer travel and healthcare service reforms, while rental prices remained weak due to high youth unemployment [4][33][62] Future Outlook - Commodity prices are expected to continue rising, but excess supply in downstream sectors may limit the transmission of price increases from upstream [4][72] - Year-end PPI is projected to recover to a maximum of -2.1%, while CPI may remain negative in Q3 but could turn positive in Q4 due to policy support for service consumption [4][72]