2026年欧洲股市开局势头强劲，推动包括德国基准股指在内的多项主要指数刷新历史高点。 从季节规律来看，1月通常是欧洲股市的向好月份，尽管涨势不算特别强劲。 不过近年来，作为新年首月的1月屡屡出现超乎寻常的大涨行情，部分欧洲个股的表现尤为突出。 据Trading View数据显示，过去20年间，欧元斯托克50指数1月平均涨幅为0.26%，当月收涨的概率达 56%。 各国股指也呈现出相似走势。德国DAX指数1月平均上涨0.44%，收涨概率为57%；法国CAC40指数1月 平均涨幅0.58%，收涨概率同样为57%。 意大利富时MIB指数的表现则略胜一筹，其1月平均涨幅达到1.23%，收涨概率更高，为62%。 相比之下，历史数据显示4月或11月等月份，往往能为欧洲股市带来更强劲且稳定的回报。 但在当前市场周期中，1月的特别之处在于近期涨幅的规模。 2023年1月和2025年1月，成为多项欧洲股指有记录以来表现最佳的1月时段。 欧元斯托克50指数在2023年1月大涨9.75%，时隔两年后的2025年1月又上涨7.98%。 德国DAX指数在2023年1月上涨8.65%，2025年1月涨幅进一步扩大至9.16%，这凸显出年 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：信达证券股份有限公司 核心结论：2025 年12 月下旬上证指数以"11 连阳"收官，主要受益于风险偏好修复（主题表现强）和中 证A500 为主的ETF 放量。元旦假期期间港股走强，背后的原因除了南下资金布局，也有人民币升值、 半导体产业催化密集等逻辑，或有利于元旦后A 股表现。我们认为春节前流动性环境大概率较好，市场 可能继续偏强，但1 月可能会有一些波动。 春季躁动如果只是季节性博弈，一般2 月的胜率赔率更高。市场在Q1较大波动的年份，均能观察到经济 数据较大拐点出现、或居民快速加杠杆或去杠杆现象。这一次春节前市场位置不低，19-21 年和24 年 Q4-25年Q1 的经验来看，交易量下降到低位后恢复初期通常是缓涨。这一次春季行情可能是缓步启 动，后续指数突破需要验证经济数据和居民热情能否继续加速。经济层面，一般来说12 月和1 月经济预 期大多平稳，但2-6 月通常容易出现较大波动。资金层面，当前保险、私募等机构资金仍有较强的补仓 动力，短期在演绎产业趋势强或者催化较多的主题，但主题行情的持续性需要验证实际的订单或业绩。 我 ...

金银在开年首日高开低走，交易员正在评估下周启动的商品基准指数权重调整可能带来的市场冲击。黄金、白银刚刚结束自1979 年以来表现最佳的年度涨势，但即将面临被动型基金的集中抛售压力。 周五（1月2日）交易时段，黄金一度上涨1.9%，但在美国交易时段回吐大部分涨幅，收盘仅上涨0.2%至每盎司4328.35美元。白银 早盘最高涨幅达4%，随后回落至1.3%，报每盎司72.61美元。 据追风交易台消息，摩根大通12月12日发布的研报量化了抛售规模：白银将遭遇最沉重的抛售，卖盘规模约占其期货市场总未平 仓合约的9%，报告特别强调今年白银的抛售压力"比去年更为突出"。黄金的抛售规模预计约占其期货市场总未平仓合约的3%。 分析指出，尽管交易员预期美联储进一步降息和美元走弱将支撑贵金属今年继续上涨，但近期的指数再平衡可能对价格构成压 力。据悉，彭博商品指数的年度权重重置将导致逾60亿美元的黄金期货和超过50亿美元的白银期货在为期五天（1月8日至14日） 的展期窗口内被卖出。 TD Securities高级大宗商品策略师Daniel Ghali警告，未来两周内Comex白银市场将有相当于未平仓合约总量13%的头寸被抛 售，"将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The anticipated strong year-end rally in the U.S. stock market, often referred to as the "Christmas rally," is facing uncertainty due to fluctuating expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and ongoing concerns about an "AI bubble" impacting investor sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - Historically, the S&P 500 index has averaged a 1.5% increase in December since 1945, making it the second-best month after November [1]. - Despite a significant rebound earlier in the week, the S&P 500 index is still projected to decline by 2% this month, marking its first monthly drop since April [2]. - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, is currently above 20, indicating increased selling pressure in the market [2]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Strategies - Investors are showing caution, with demand for options to hedge against declines in major tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft reaching its highest level since August 2024 [2]. - Analysts suggest that while seasonal trends typically favor market gains, they are not guaranteed, and current market conditions are being weighed against historical performance [2][3]. - The sentiment among investors is mixed, with some strategists urging caution due to uncertainties surrounding AI investments and potential upward risks in yields [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts are being closely monitored, with a 70% probability of a cut in the upcoming December meeting [4]. - Concerns about a potential bubble in AI-related investments are growing, particularly following Nvidia's strong earnings report, which led to significant market volatility rather than alleviating fears [4]. - Long-term bullish sentiment remains, with predictions for the S&P 500 index to reach 7400 points by the end of 2026, driven by strong performances from major tech stocks [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley's optimistic forecast suggests the S&P 500 index could rise to 7800 points within the next year, indicating an 18% upside from current levels [6]. - Deutsche Bank is even more bullish, predicting the index could surpass 8000 points by the end of 2026, supported by expected acceleration in U.S. economic growth and broader earnings expansion beyond large-cap tech stocks [6].

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index remains in a solid upward trend as it enters the final weeks of the year, but market breadth deterioration and historical comparisons suggest a potential pullback of up to 10% [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The S&P 500 index is maintaining its upward channel and finding support at the 50-day moving average, currently near 6700 points [1] - If this support holds, favorable seasonal factors in November and December could push the S&P 500 to 7040 points (+3%) or 7115 points (+4%) [1] - A strong year-end pattern similar to 1980 could lead to an increase of approximately 6.5%, potentially nearing 7280 points [1] Group 2: Tactical Positioning - The company maintains a bullish stance after achieving the summer target of 6625 points and continues to recommend hedging profits when the index reaches new highs [1] - Recent volatility in October and early November has reinforced the value of tactical hedging until the breadth of the upward trend expands [1] Group 3: Warning Signals - Despite the S&P 500 reaching new highs, several breadth indicators have shown weakness, with an increase in stocks hitting 52-week lows and a decrease in stocks trading above major moving averages [1] - The market's upward momentum is noticeably narrowing, and a drop below the 50-day moving average could increase the likelihood of a pullback [1] - Key support levels are identified at 6631 points, the 6570-6551 point range, 6360 points, and 6200 points [1] Group 4: Seasonal Patterns and Sector Rotation - Historical seasonal trends support an "upward" movement, particularly in the first year of the presidential cycle, where the index has a 92% probability of rising in November and December if it remains up through October, with an average gain of nearly 5% [2] - To achieve this pattern, leading sectors must rotate into those that typically perform well at year-end, such as consumer discretionary, healthcare, industrials, and materials [2] - The technology sector historically lags in December, with only a 54% probability of rising [2] - The upward trend of the S&P 500 remains intact, but narrow participation and historical references indicate ongoing downside risks [2]

Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury market is expected to show positive trends by the end of the year, driven by historical seasonal patterns rather than Federal Reserve policy expectations [1] - The probability of a rate cut in December has decreased significantly from approximately 90% to 72% following comments from Fed Chair Powell [1] - Historical data indicates that U.S. Treasury prices peak in late autumn and reach their lowest point in spring, which may mitigate investor disappointment regarding Fed policy [1][2] Seasonal Patterns - The seasonal characteristics of the U.S. Treasury market originated in the early 1970s when the Treasury began selling bonds through public auctions [2] - A study published in 2015 noted that prior to the market pricing mechanism, Treasury yields showed little seasonal variation, but the introduction of a predictable auction schedule established a stable seasonal pattern [2] - December's average return for U.S. Treasuries is generally modest, but when combined with November's returns, it surpasses the performance of any other two-month combination throughout the year [2] Risk Aversion Mechanism - Researchers analyzed various hypotheses to explain the seasonal patterns in Treasury yields, ultimately identifying seasonal changes in investor risk aversion as the primary driver [3] - The study concluded that as investor sentiment declines in the autumn, risk aversion increases, leading to higher Treasury prices and thus higher actual yields during this period [4] - Conversely, as investor sentiment improves in the spring, risk aversion decreases, resulting in lower Treasury prices and lower actual yields [4]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector demonstrates resilience amid a declining market, with several banks, including Agricultural Bank of China, reaching historical highs, indicating strong investor interest in bank stocks as a safe haven [1][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - Agricultural Bank of China saw an intraday increase of over 2%, closing up 1.74%, while other banks like Xiamen Bank and Qingdao Bank also rose by more than 2% [1]. - The Bank ETF (512800) experienced a brief intraday surge of nearly 1% before closing down 0.12%, maintaining a seven-day upward trend with a total trading volume of 2.922 billion yuan [1][3]. - The Bank ETF has attracted significant capital inflow, with a net inflow of 4.854 billion yuan over the past seven days, bringing its total size close to 20 billion yuan, setting a new historical high [5]. Group 2: Investment Drivers - The banking sector is benefiting from multiple catalysts, including heightened market risk aversion, leading investors to seek stable, high-dividend bank stocks [7]. - Continued government policies aimed at economic stability are fostering expectations of recovery, which directly benefits the banking sector due to its close ties to economic cycles [7]. - Historical trends suggest that the fourth quarter is typically a favorable period for undervalued, high-dividend large-cap stocks, potentially enhancing the appeal of bank stocks [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the banking sector will become a key focus in the current market phase, with defensive asset allocation driving demand for bank stocks [8]. - The stability of bank dividends and the recent price corrections have improved the attractiveness of bank stocks, likely drawing in risk-averse capital [8]. - The Bank ETF (512800) and its associated funds are effective tools for tracking the overall performance of the banking sector, comprising 42 listed banks in A-shares [8].

Group 1 - The banking sector continues to show strong performance, with Agricultural Bank of China rising over 2% to reach a new historical high, and the top bank ETF (512800) experiencing a seven-day price increase, with real-time trading volume exceeding 800 million yuan [1] - Significant capital inflow into the banking sector is noted, with the bank ETF (512800) attracting 880 million yuan in a single day and over 4.5 billion yuan in the last five days, pushing its total scale close to 20 billion yuan [1] - Analysts attribute the recent rise in bank stocks to multiple factors, including increased market risk aversion, policy expectations, and seasonal trends, with the fourth quarter historically being a favorable period for undervalued, high-dividend large-cap stocks [1] Group 2 - The bank ETF (512800) and its linked fund (240019) passively track the CSI Bank Index, encompassing 42 listed banks in A-shares, making it an efficient investment tool for tracking the overall banking sector [2] - The bank ETF (512800) is the largest and most liquid among the 10 bank ETFs in A-shares, with an average daily trading volume exceeding 600 million yuan this year [2]

Market Overview - The US stock market opened lower on the first trading day of September, with all three major indices declining, indicating increased caution among investors after the summer holiday [1][3] - Gold prices surged by 1.6% to $3,532 per ounce, reflecting strong market risk aversion amid multiple uncertainties, including trade policy changes and rising long-term Treasury yields [1] Index Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 249.07 points, a decrease of 0.55%, closing at 45,295.81 points [3][4] - The S&P 500 index dropped by 0.69%, closing at 6,415.54 points [3][4] - The Nasdaq Composite Index experienced the largest decline, down 0.82% to 21,279.63 points [3][4] Treasury Yields - US Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 2 basis points and the 10-year yield rising by 4 basis points [5] - The 10-year US Treasury yield reached 4.27%, while the 30-year yield briefly surpassed 4.97%, creating significant headwinds for the stock market [7] Sector Analysis - The recent market pullback has primarily affected previously leading technology stocks, with Nvidia down approximately 2%, and Amazon and Apple each declining nearly 1% [7] - Investors are choosing to take profits amid weakening economic data and unclear Federal Reserve interest rate paths, as well as high valuations [7] Legal and Policy Uncertainty - A recent court ruling declared many tariffs imposed during the Trump administration as illegal, prompting concerns about potential refunds of billions in tariff revenue, which could worsen the already strained fiscal situation [7] - This legal uncertainty has led investors to reassess the US government's fiscal capacity and policy stability, contributing to a shift of funds into the bond market [7] Seasonal Trends - Historically, September has been a weak month for the S&P 500, with an average decline of 4.2% over the past five years and over 2% in the last decade [8] - Despite a strong performance in August, where the S&P 500 reached five historical highs, the optimism did not fully carry into September [8] Employment Data and Fed Policy - Investors are closely watching the upcoming non-farm payroll report for August, which will assess the resilience of the US labor market and may influence the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [9] - Current market expectations suggest a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [11][12] Commodity Outlook - Most institutions remain bullish on gold, with forecasts suggesting prices could reach $3,600 per ounce by the end of next year [15] - In contrast, the outlook for oil prices appears limited, with expectations that OPEC+ will maintain current production levels amid concerns of oversupply [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that despite the recent rise in the U.S. stock market, key support forces are showing signs of weakening, leading to potential risks in September [1][21] - Retail investors have been a significant driving force behind the recent rebound in the U.S. stock market, with net buying occurring on 27 out of the last 28 trading days [4][20] - Systematic funds, which have injected over $365 billion into global markets in the past 75 trading days, are nearing their capacity limits, which may reduce their role as stabilizing buyers [9][12] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that retail trading activity typically peaks in June and July, then declines in August, reaching its lowest point in September, suggesting a loss of a key buying force [6][16] - The article warns of a "support vacuum" as retail buying wanes and institutional buying exhausts, particularly in September, which is historically the worst-performing month for the S&P 500 index [2][17] - Despite strong earnings reports, with 85% of companies exceeding expectations, these positive factors may not be enough to counteract the dual pressures from funding and seasonal trends [20][21] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that the market's ability to withstand negative macroeconomic news will be significantly weakened, preparing investors for potential higher volatility [3][21] - The article also notes that volatility control strategies may see a slowdown in buying demand due to recent increases in volatility, while risk parity strategies are returning to historical levels [13][14]