2025年港股市场以五年来最佳年度表现强势收官，核心指数涨幅领跑全球主要资本市场，"估值洼地修 复"行情贯穿全年。 过去一年，港股市场走势呈现"先扬后抑"走势，一季度流动性驱动行情修复，下半年政策与流动性形成 双重支撑，9月美联储超预期降息推动恒指触及年内高点，年末港股进入弱震荡调整期。 南向资金年内净流入超1.41万亿元，创下互联互通机制开通以来的年度新高，成为市场流动性的"压舱 石"。估值洼地修复行情贯穿全年，13只个股涨幅超10倍，硬科技、生物医药、贵金属赛道牛股云集。 IPO市场同样表现强劲，在宁德时代等大型IPO带动下，2025年全年IPO规模达到2863亿港元，重返全球 第一。19家A股公司相继登陆港股，累计募资约1400亿港元，占IPO总募资额的半数左右，成为史上A 股公司赴港上市数量最多的一年。 展望2026年，多家机构对港股走势作出乐观预期。中信证券认为，港股将受益于"十五五"催化以及外部 主要经济体的双宽松政策，随着基本面触底反弹，港股市场将迎来第二轮估值修复以及业绩进一步复苏 的行情。 核心指数全线爆发、南向资金创历史新高 截至12月31日收盘，恒生指数从年初约19600点攀升至2563 ...

Group 1: Global Market Trends - In the context of global central banks initiating a "rate-cutting wave" and releasing ample liquidity, stock markets in multiple countries are expected to continue their upward momentum into 2025, demonstrating resilience amid macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks [1] - The MSCI global index has achieved a cumulative increase of over 20% this year, marking the third consecutive year of gains exceeding 15% [1] Group 2: Asian Market Dynamics - The AI boom has significantly boosted demand for semiconductors, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index rising approximately 28% this year, marking the first time since 2020 that Asian stocks have outperformed US and European benchmarks in a single year [5][6] - Asia accounts for over 75% of global semiconductor manufacturing capacity, with Taiwan and South Korea leading in advanced process nodes, while China is rapidly expanding its mature process capacity [6] Group 3: Japanese and Korean Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index has surpassed 50,000 points, with a year-to-date increase of 30%, driven primarily by technology stocks such as SoftBank Group and Advantest [7][9] - South Korea's KOSPI index has surged over 70% this year, with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics leading the charge due to a supercycle in AI-driven memory chips [12] Group 4: European Market Insights - European stock markets have reached historical highs, supported by improved economic outlooks, lower inflation compared to the US, and significant fiscal stimulus from Germany [38][43] - The DAX index has shown resilience despite Germany's stagnant economic growth, bolstered by a massive fiscal stimulus plan aimed at infrastructure and defense spending [43][44] Group 5: North American Market Developments - Canada's TSX Composite Index has recorded a 30% increase this year, driven by strong performances in the financial, materials, and energy sectors [66][67] - Brazil and Mexico have also benefited from capital inflows due to their low valuation advantages, with both markets experiencing approximately 30% gains this year [74][75] Group 6: Future Outlook - Investors are optimistic about 2026, with expectations of continued stock market growth driven by corporate profit increases, reduced policy resistance, and AI investments [88][89] - Analysts predict that the AI-driven supercycle will lead to record capital expenditures and rapid profit expansion across various sectors, including defense and utilities [94][96]

Group 1 - In 2025, major asset performance showed significant differentiation driven by three forces: financial cycle downturn, global order restructuring, and deepening industrial revolution. Gold prices surged over 60%, A-shares entered a structural bull market, while the bond market faced fluctuations and real estate prices continued to adjust [1][75]. Group 2 - The macro asset allocation framework for 2026 indicates a complex transition period. The strategic layer suggests maintaining a defensive stance due to the ongoing financial cycle downturn. The tactical layer anticipates a combination of economic recovery and financial easing, providing opportunities in commodities and equities [2][76]. Group 3 - The outlook for 2026 suggests that the stock market may experience a profit-driven rally supported by improved economic fundamentals and ample liquidity. Key focus areas include technology sectors like AI and semiconductors, high-quality export sectors, and renewable energy benefiting from anti-involution policies [3][77]. Group 4 - The bond market is expected to see a wide range of fluctuations with a moderate upward trend in yields, projected to be between 1.6% and 2.1%. The key factors influencing this include a rebound in PPI and alleviation of the "asset shortage" issue, with potential trading opportunities arising from small rate cuts early in the year [3][43][77]. Group 5 - In the commodities market, structural differentiation is expected to continue, with basic metals like copper and aluminum benefiting from global fiscal expansion and liquidity easing. Traditional energy sources like oil may perform relatively poorly due to the financial cycle downturn and supply pressures [3][59][77]. Group 6 - Gold is anticipated to enter a phase of high-level consolidation, with long-term support from weakened dollar credit and central bank gold purchases. However, short-term volatility may arise from price corrections and geopolitical factors [3][68][77].

关于报告的所有内容，请于公众『市场分析报告』阅读原文 《十大外资对2026年A股的建议》 兴业证券分析师梳理整合了包括摩根大通、高盛、瑞银等在内的十家国际主流机构对2026年A股的年度展望，旨在呈现外资视角下对中国资产的结构性共识 与配置逻辑，很有参考价值。 一、摩根大通 即将进入2026年，A股市场的变化趋势已逐渐清晰。以摩根大通为代表的外资机构认为，上市公司能否实现实实在在的"盈利"，将成为推动中国资产上涨的 核心动力。市场的关注点正从前期估值的普遍修复，转向企业业绩的兑现能力。 该机构预测，2026年沪深300指数有望达到5200点，这意味着相较于2025年12月的收盘价，存在约13%的上涨空间。对应的市场平均估值约为15.9倍市盈 率，而上市公司整体的每股收益（EPS）预计将增长15%。这一轮盈利复苏具有广泛基础，调查显示，超过三分之一的细分行业已经进入收入增长区间，盈 利前景得到上调的公司数量比例创下2020年以来的新高。 摩根大通将投资机会归纳为四条清晰的主线：抑制过度竞争（反内卷）、人工智能（AI）、全球化拓展（出海）以及国内需求的局部复苏。 抑制过度竞争（反内卷）：政策正直接对"低价倾销"等行 ...

证券研究报告 | 年度策略 2025 12 12 年 月 日 A股2026年策略展望： 牛市从估值驱动到业绩驱动 分析师：杨柳 执业证书编号：S0680524010002 邮箱：yangliu3@gszq.com 分析师：王浩 执业证书编号：S0680524020001 邮箱：wanghao5@gszq.com 核心观点 打造极致专业与效率 2 • 回看2025年，A股市场于4月回踩至全年最低点后一路向上，沪指一举突破10年新高，背后是叙事的变化逐渐吸引增量资金入市，估 值驱动成为行情向上的主导力量：国内基本面预期改善叠加低利率"资产荒"驱动险资加码配置权益；AI发展进入全球共振阶段吸引 基金对AI算力与新能源加码配置、游资跟随买入助推行情；而大国博弈作为地缘方面最重要的叙事，引发了国家资本入市维稳市场以 及对资源品、国产替代投资情绪的高涨。 • 展望2026年，估值可能继续产生正向驱动，但强度边际弱化。海内外货币宽松的基调仍将延续，但外部降息与内部货币扩张的节奏尚 存变数，预计股市流动性的险资增量贡献仍有较强确定性，居民财富入市能否延续、强度如何都难以明确，同时宏观可见度不足，中 美、政策、地产、 AI均面 ...

GUANGDONG - HONG KONG GREATER BAY AREA HOLDINGS LIMITED 粵港灣控股有限公司 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概 不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本 公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔 任何責任。 （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：1396） 自願公告 與華工科技簽訂戰略合作協議 本 公告 乃 由 粵 港灣 控 股有 限 公司 （ 「本 公 司 」 ）自 願 作出 。 本 公司 董 事（「董 事 」）會（「董 事 會 」）欣 然宣 佈 ，本 公司 間 接全 資 附 屬公 司 深圳 天 頓數 據 科技 有 限公 司（「天 頓 數 據 」）於 2025 年 12 月 9 日 與華 工科 技 產業 股 份有 限 公司（ 一 家於 深 圳證 券 交易 所 上市 的 公司 ， 股 份代 碼 ：000988）（「 華 工 科 技 」）簽 訂戰 略 合作 協 議（「戰 略 合 作 協 議 」）。據 此，雙 方將 本 著優 勢 互補 、資 源共 享 、協 同創 新 、合 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts a strong economic growth effect from the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBBA) passed by the Trump administration in 2025, starting in 2026, leading to a "Goldilocks" macroeconomic environment in the U.S. with moderate growth and inflation [1][8]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. stock market has transitioned from a three-year "rolling recession" to a "rolling recovery," characterized by improved cost structures, strong earnings revisions, and released pent-up demand, creating a typical early-cycle environment [2]. - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to initiate a new capital expenditure cycle, with corporate investments, particularly in AI and manufacturing, becoming new growth engines [2]. Market Dynamics - The "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, including Nvidia and Google, will continue to lead earnings revisions in 2025, with expectations spreading to the S&P 493 constituents, particularly in industrial and financial sectors [6]. - Morgan Stanley defines the current situation as a "second phase bull market under rolling recovery," emphasizing a return of market risk appetite and broadening investment opportunities across various sectors [6][15]. Investment Strategy - Morgan Stanley recommends an "overweight" position in cyclical sectors such as financials, industrials, healthcare, and consumer discretionary goods, while suggesting a "low weight" in staples and real estate [13][14]. - The firm anticipates that the S&P 500 index could reach 9,000 points by 2026, driven by strong corporate earnings growth and AI-related capital expenditures [11]. Broader Market Trends - The market is expected to shift focus from defensive to offensive strategies, with AI remaining a key investment theme but not the sole driver of the upcoming bull market [9]. - The anticipated "risk reboot year" in 2026 will see a significant focus on microeconomic factors, with a unique combination of fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies providing a strong boost to risk markets [11][14].

Core Viewpoint - Industrial Fulian (601138) is increasing its investment in the AI computing power industry by injecting 2 billion yuan into its subsidiary, Fulin Cloud Computing (Tianjin) Co., Ltd, to enhance AI infrastructure and R&D efforts, aiming to solidify its leading position in the AI sector and support the high-quality development of China's AI industry chain [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The company adheres to a development strategy of "deepening in mainland China and expanding globally," continuously increasing domestic investment to build a multi-point collaborative AI industry ecosystem [2] - Investments in Tianjin and Hangzhou focus on strengthening AI computing power infrastructure and R&D through new park constructions [2] - In Shenzhen, the company invested 726 million yuan to establish a new R&D center for precision components in next-generation smartphones, enhancing innovation in high-end intelligence and AI terminal fields [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 603.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.49 billion yuan, up 48.52%, nearing last year's total [2] - The cloud computing business saw revenue growth of over 65% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a quarterly growth exceeding 75% in the third quarter [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company maintains an optimistic outlook for AI server cabinet demand by 2026, with ongoing projects involving core cloud service providers and a tight order production schedule [2] - The smooth progress of related projects is expected to provide strong support for overall business growth throughout the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The anticipated strong year-end rally in the U.S. stock market, often referred to as the "Christmas rally," is facing uncertainty due to fluctuating expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and ongoing concerns about an "AI bubble" impacting investor sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - Historically, the S&P 500 index has averaged a 1.5% increase in December since 1945, making it the second-best month after November [1]. - Despite a significant rebound earlier in the week, the S&P 500 index is still projected to decline by 2% this month, marking its first monthly drop since April [2]. - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, is currently above 20, indicating increased selling pressure in the market [2]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Strategies - Investors are showing caution, with demand for options to hedge against declines in major tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft reaching its highest level since August 2024 [2]. - Analysts suggest that while seasonal trends typically favor market gains, they are not guaranteed, and current market conditions are being weighed against historical performance [2][3]. - The sentiment among investors is mixed, with some strategists urging caution due to uncertainties surrounding AI investments and potential upward risks in yields [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts are being closely monitored, with a 70% probability of a cut in the upcoming December meeting [4]. - Concerns about a potential bubble in AI-related investments are growing, particularly following Nvidia's strong earnings report, which led to significant market volatility rather than alleviating fears [4]. - Long-term bullish sentiment remains, with predictions for the S&P 500 index to reach 7400 points by the end of 2026, driven by strong performances from major tech stocks [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley's optimistic forecast suggests the S&P 500 index could rise to 7800 points within the next year, indicating an 18% upside from current levels [6]. - Deutsche Bank is even more bullish, predicting the index could surpass 8000 points by the end of 2026, supported by expected acceleration in U.S. economic growth and broader earnings expansion beyond large-cap tech stocks [6].

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong-Hong Kong Bay Holdings has transformed from a property developer with a debt ratio of 99% to a digital ecosystem operator, achieving a net profit of RMB 970 million after acquiring AI computing power company Wisdom Knight Holdings for HKD 977 million [1][6]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition of Wisdom Knight Holdings Limited marks a significant shift for Guangdong-Hong Kong Bay Holdings, which previously faced a debt crisis but has now pivoted towards the AI computing sector after a successful debt-to-equity swap of USD 440 million [1][4]. - Wisdom Knight Holdings is recognized as a leading operator in intelligent computing construction in China, being one of the earliest to establish A-level third-party data centers [2][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Wisdom Knight's revenue has shown rapid growth, with projections of RMB 50.9 million, RMB 61.6 million, and RMB 230 million for the years 2022 to 2024, respectively, and reaching RMB 174.4 million in Q1 2025 [4]. - Following the debt restructuring, Guangdong-Hong Kong Bay Holdings reduced its interest-bearing debt ratio from 45% to 7%, achieving a remarkable turnaround with a net profit of RMB 970 million in the first half of 2025 [4][6]. Group 3: Strategic Transformation - The acquisition is not merely a business addition but represents a profound restructuring of capital logic, transitioning from heavy asset costs to light asset technology assets [1][6]. - The integration of idle factories and land resources into high-performance computing centers signifies a strategic upgrade from being a "physical space builder" to a "digital ecosystem operator" [1][6]. Group 4: Market Position and Valuation - The AI computing sector is being likened to "new oil" in the digital economy, characterized by high barriers, high margins, and high repurchase rates, making it attractive to capital markets [6][7]. - The valuation of Guangdong-Hong Kong Bay Holdings is undergoing a fundamental transformation, with potential market value growth of 50% based on the projected earnings from the AI computing segment [7][8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The merger is expected to create a dual-driven model of "industrial operation asset securitization + computing operation revenue," similar to the digital infrastructure REITs model in the U.S. [7][8]. - The long-term strategy aligns with the annual growth of 40% in AI computing demand and the digital transformation policies in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [7][8].