2025 年 7 月 11 日，由起点锂电、起点 固态电池 、起点两轮车及换电主办 ， 以 "换电之城 智慧两轮"为主题 的 2025 第五届起点两轮车 换电大会暨轻型动力电池技术高峰论坛 在 深圳宝安登喜路国际酒店正式举办。 本次论坛聚焦两轮车及换电、两轮车锂电、两轮车钠电、高倍率、超快充、新材料、新工艺等前沿技术，进行深度探讨和思维碰撞。论坛 现场 300+ 两轮车换电及电池细分重量级企业， 600+ 企业高层汇聚共论行业发展。 在下午两轮车电摩及电池技术专场， 诺达智慧 产品总监 黄毅彪发表演讲，分享主题 ： 多极耳及半固态电池的技术发展。 以下为演讲实录： 各位领导，尊敬的同行精英们，下午好！ 我给大家分享关于多极耳及半固态电池的技术发展。 经过多年的累积和沉淀，在以圆柱型锂电池为中心的新能源领域基本完成了全产业链的布局，上游延伸到矿产原材料关键环节，下游延伸至备用 电源、户储、两轮车、资源回收等产业，形成了全产业链一体化的事业蓝图。 这是公司的首席科学家和总经理，张瑞波博士是首席科学家、中科院博士，他主要是对新型材料的前端技术研究以及推进，包括诺达智慧半固态 电池的材料相关研究。江国龙总主要是根据张 ...

图源：世研大消费指数 乳制品以靶向性技术破壁健康痛点，颗粒化场景营销重构消费价值 从品牌分布来看，乳制品集群本月以"技术驱动健康升级"与"场景精准渗透"双轨并进，重构春季消费价 值。 季节更迭催生免疫力需求高峰，伊利畅轻借势推广含专利菌株产品，以尖端益生菌科技直击肠道 健康痛点；蒙牛与金典则聚焦乳品本源技术突破——前者以富含乳铁蛋白的鲜奶强化免疫属性，后者凭 借有机A2β-酪蛋白牛奶精准化解乳糖不耐人群的饮用障碍，将生物科技转化为可感知的消费解决方 案。 场景化创新层面，安慕希联名其他品牌推广便携装，将酸奶从餐桌延伸至春游场景，通过产品形态革新 绑定户外轻享时刻。 其他品牌差异化竞争路径同样清晰：金典在高端赛道深化信任壁垒，直播间实时展示有机牧场溯源过 程，使"有机"概念可视化、可验证；德运则作为进口品牌代表，以行业头部奶粉配方切入健康升级赛 道，在传统奶粉品类中拓展脱脂新战场。五大品牌共同印证乳品行业趋势——健康诉求正从泛化概念向 靶向性技术解决方案跃迁，而消费场景的精细化切割正成为品牌增长的核心引擎。 生鲜以保鲜技术供应链迭代重构信任链，场景显性化激活即时消费 本次监测周期内，伊利、怡颗莓和三只松鼠分别以 ...

值得关注的是，当前市场估值结构呈现显著分化。标普500市盈率(TTM)虽达21.5倍，但科技巨头占比33%的权重结 构使其估值水平低于2000年互联网泡沫时期的28倍。瑞银提出的"估值相对论"在美联储政策轨迹中得到印证：2023 年基准利率维持5.25%-5.5%高位，但标普500指数仍实现24%年涨幅，显示利率上行并未抑制科技股估值扩张，这 与1995-1999年期间美联储6次加息但纳指仍暴涨400%的现象形成历史共振。 NDR最新情绪指标显示，当前市场修正周期(下跌20%所需交易日)处于历史低位，标普500指数在不触发熊市阈值 的情况下已连续512个交易日创新高，这一数据超越1990年代牛市后期表现。市场正处在技术革命红利释放与地缘 秩序重构的交汇期，投资者需在战略定力与战术灵活之间寻找平衡点。 瑞银强调的两大核心逻辑已获得多维度数据支撑：其一，生产力跃升方面，人工智能技术突破正复制1990年代互 联网革命的路径。AI通过算力重构、数据要素配置和产业智能化升级，推动全要素生产率提升，这与1987-2000年 期间互联网技术催生纳斯达克指数十年涨超400%的轨迹形成历史呼应。其二，全球安全格局重构层面，IM ...

新消费产业的兴起，与中国民营经济的发展紧密相连。中国拥有1.2亿民营经济市场主体，而真正从事 战略新新产业的不到1%，大部分市场主体在新消费产业革命中尚未找准定位，面临迷茫。改革开放以 来，民营经济在消费产业领域发挥了重要作用，消费产业也高度依赖民营经济。如今，不少地方在发展 前沿产业的同时，却忽视了新消费产业的巨大潜力。实际上，新消费产业涵盖120万个ToC产品品类， 为各地提供了广阔的赛道，像德国的美妆产业、比利时和瑞士的食品产业、美国的食品和服装革命等， 都是新消费产业的典型代表，目前美国、日本、德国在全球新消费产业革命中处于领先地位。 *基于零点有数董事长袁岳在首届新消费产业发展大会上的发言 新消费产业，顾名思义，是融合了新新技术、新新美学、新新产品与服务，服务于新新人群的产业形 态。当前，我们正处于第四次技术革命的关键时期，各领域技术发展日新月异，呈现出快速突破、交叉 融合、持续创新的特点。自2007年以来，全球专利申请量呈现几何级数增长，技术迭代周期之短令人惊 叹，新技术刚出现，几个月后便可能迎来新一代技术的发展，这种高技术密度的新新技术，不仅在其原 领域推动创新，更在其他领域发挥强大的赋能作用， ...

当前国际局势风云变化，全球经济的不稳定因素与日俱增，中美贸易摩擦、美国债务水平逼近临界值…… 每一次金融动荡都在牵动着世界的神经。人们不禁要问，是什么力量在背后操控着国家的经济命运？为何 有些国家深陷债务泥潭，而有些国家却能稳步前行？ 全球知名对冲基金公司桥水创始人瑞·达利欧的新书《国家为什么会破产：大周期》提前为我们揭开了经济 危机的神秘面纱，提供了独特的视角和深刻的洞见，让我们得以窥见下一场债务危机风暴的迹象，以及国 家破产背后权力兴衰的秘密。 01 大债务周期及其演进路径 债务周期是国家经济运行的重要规律。大债务周期，指的是在长时间（即连续的短期债务周期）内积累债 务资产和债务负债，直到其规模最终变得不可控。这会导致大规模的债务重组和债务货币化，从而引发一 段时期的市场和经济动荡。在大债务周期的早期阶段，债务负担较轻，信贷资金尚能投向高回报项目，此 时举债空间较为充裕；而到了周期后期，当债务及偿债成本相对于收入水平及可偿债资产价值显著上升 时，违约风险将显著加剧，国家将面临破产风险。 借贷消费能产生即时快感，若缺乏约束，债务及偿债支 出便会像恶性肿瘤一般持续蚕食实际购买力，逐步挤压正常消费空间——这正是 ...

布莱尔称，理解中国、与中国保持接触，而不是试图孤立中国，这才是正确的政策。 世界应如何与中国深入了解？欧洲为何要发展自身防务力量？新技术革命将改变什么？ 世界经济论坛第十六届新领军者年会（夏季达沃斯论坛）正于6月24-26日在天津举办。在一场与世界经 济论坛总裁兼首席执行官布伦德（Borge Brende）的特别对话中，英国前首相、托尼·布莱尔全球变化研 究所执行主席布莱尔（Tony Blair）对上述国际热点问题发表了见解。 据中国外交部网站消息，2025年6月23日，中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅在京会见布莱尔。布莱 尔表示，当今世界面临诸多挑战，需要加强协调，共同应对。孤立中国注定不会成功，世界应更多了解 中国。 在夏季达沃斯的发言中，布莱尔再次重复了这一观点。他称，中国在过去数十年间的经济发展"可能是 人类历史上最引人注目的变化之一"，中国的文明传承、人口规模、经济和科技实力等都为中国成为世 界大国奠定了坚实基础。 布莱尔表示，中国已成为许多经济体除邻国外最大的贸易伙伴，非洲、亚洲、拉美等地区的许多经济体 并不愿意"选边站"，而是希望与中国保持良好关系。 "理解中国必须从其自身视角出发，而非西方视角 ...

世界经济面临重重挑战 当今世界，百年变局加速演进，全球经济迎来风高浪急的时刻：保护主义和单边主义抬头，贸易壁垒和 技术封锁层出不穷，全球化遭遇严重逆流；地缘政治冲突此起彼伏，地区安全形势不断恶化，全球产业 链供应链受到深度冲击；全球经济复苏艰难，南北差距持续拉大，不平等现象加剧，全球治理体系面临 结构性失衡。 世界银行发布的最新一期《全球经济展望》报告，将2025年全球经济增长预期从今年1月的2.7%下调至 2.3%，近70%经济体增速被下调。同时，联合国贸易和发展会议也发布报告称，2024年全球外国直接投 资下降11%，为连续第二年下降。 "一系列数字的变化，反映出全球经济正处于深层结构性矛盾和多重风险交织当中，这是全球治理体系 长期积弊的集中显现，是全球合作机制被削弱、互信基础被侵蚀的直接后果。"商务部研究院研究员周 密表示，这一系列人为因素带来的挑战，本不应该发生，也可以不发生，如今却严重损害全球经济和相 关各方的利益。 环顾世界，个别国家肆意挥舞关税大棒、胁迫"脱钩断链"、推行"小院高墙"，以牺牲全球市场效率为代 价，谋求一己私利，扭曲了全球市场机制，侵蚀了多边主义的制度根基；南北发展鸿沟越发凸显，许 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese pesticide industry is at a critical transition from scale expansion to quality and efficiency, emphasizing the need for safety and environmental protection while aiming for a green and safe ecosystem [1] Group 1: Industry Transition and Challenges - The pesticide industry is moving from "catching up" to "leading" and must strengthen safety and environmental protection as a foundation for high-quality development [1] - A recent explosion in Shandong has highlighted the severe consequences of safety failures, underscoring the industry's responsibility to address safety issues decisively [1] Group 2: Key Strategic Directions - Three major strategic directions for safety and environmental work were proposed: 1. Promote a technological revolution in processes to establish a foundation for inherent safety, including strict adherence to safety production technology equipment directories and the adoption of advanced safety technologies [2] 2. Build a responsibility care ecosystem to foster collaborative governance within the industry, including a three-tier responsibility network among parks, enterprises, and communities [2] 3. Deepen policy and standard upgrades to lead the green and low-carbon transition, focusing on product quality traceability and advancing technologies related to synthetic biology and low-carbon production [2] Group 3: Safety Management and Risk Control - The need for enhanced safety management was emphasized, with a focus on analyzing safety issues through tools like HAZOP analysis and refining risk control and emergency response strategies [3]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank analysts predict that the softening labor market in the UK will lead the Bank of England to reverse its restrictive monetary policy, with unemployment expected to rise above the central bank's modal forecast [1] - The latest data shows a decrease of 109,000 jobs in May, marking the most significant decline since May 2020, indicating a concerning trend in the labor market [1] - Deutsche Bank forecasts that the Bank of England's interest rate will drop from the current 4.25% to 3.5% by the end of this year, and further to 3.25% in the first quarter of 2026 [1] Group 2 - Nomura Oriental International Securities expects Chinese equity assets to outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year due to strong domestic policy expectations and better liquidity conditions in the Asia-Pacific emerging markets [2] - The firm highlights that the second half of 2025 will be a crucial period for market direction, with increased volatility anticipated [2] - Stable dividend stocks and specific technology growth sectors are expected to be more suitable for the market environment in the latter half of the year, alongside significant potential in domestic consumption and technology sectors [2] Group 3 - A Reuters survey indicates that over 60% of economists predict the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice this year, with many expecting a rate cut as early as September [3] - Economists forecast U.S. economic growth of 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, consistent with previous predictions [3] Group 4 - Morgan Stanley reports that the net long position in U.S. Treasury bonds has reached its highest level since May 5, with a 2 percentage point decrease in short positions [4] Group 5 - Fitch Ratings states that the depreciation of the U.S. dollar has provided some emerging market central banks with the space to accelerate interest rate cuts, alleviating the burden of dollar-denominated debt [5] Group 6 - Fitch also notes that global public finances will continue to face pressure in 2025, particularly in developed markets, due to rising defense spending, interest costs, and demographic trends [6] - The median government debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise slightly from 54.1% at the end of 2024 to 54.5% by the end of 2025 [6] Group 7 - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for Pop Mart to HKD 302, citing the company's IP diversity and operational capabilities as drivers of sustainable growth, suggesting that its long-term scaling potential has not yet been fully priced in [7] Group 8 - Morgan Stanley believes that long-term Japanese government bonds are attractive to foreign investors, although the timing of any adjustments to the bond issuance scale by the Japanese government remains uncertain [8] Group 9 - Goldman Sachs economists predict that tariffs may raise U.S. commodity prices and overall inflation in the coming months, with core CPI inflation expected to reach 3.5% by the end of the year, up from 2.8% in April [9] Group 10 - CITIC Securities anticipates that investor sentiment will remain stable in June, although there may be a cautious outlook among investors following the extreme performance of small-cap and thematic stocks in April and May [10] - Huaxi Securities suggests that the main market theme remains unclear, advocating for a rotational approach to trading in the technology sector [10] Group 11 - CICC reports that the Chinese consumption market is exhibiting characteristics of "consumption stratification" rather than simple "consumption downgrade," with consumers willing to pay for quality at lower prices and justified premiums [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of a stable macroeconomic foundation for structural highlights in the consumption market [11] Group 12 - China Galaxy Securities recommends focusing on stablecoin concept stocks with good growth prospects and reasonable valuations, as regulatory developments are expected to boost investor confidence in the stablecoin market [12] - Haitong Securities highlights the importance of flexibility in asset operations amid increased volatility and suggests looking for structural opportunities in sectors like AI technology and military industry [12]

Market Overview - The three major indices opened higher on June 11, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.14%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.34% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,385.46 points, the Shenzhen Component Index at 10,176.50 points, and the ChiNext Index at 2,044.28 points [2] External Market - U.S. stock indices collectively rose, reaching new highs not seen in at least three months, with the Dow Jones up 0.25% to 42,866.87 points, the S&P 500 up 0.55% to 6,038.81 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.63% to 19,714.99 points [3] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities expects investor sentiment in June to remain stable, with a balanced outlook despite concerns over domestic demand and price signals [4] - Huaxi Securities suggests a rotational strategy to capitalize on the technology sector's rebound, while remaining cautious of potential market volatility [5] - CICC highlights a trend of "consumption stratification" in China, indicating a shift towards quality and value-driven purchases rather than a simple downgrade in consumption [6] Strategic Recommendations - Huatai Securities emphasizes the importance of flexibility in asset operations, focusing on high-odds, low-correlation investments amid a changing global landscape [8] - China Galaxy Securities recommends focusing on stablecoin concept stocks with good growth prospects and reasonable valuations, as regulatory developments boost investor confidence [9] - Guosheng Securities advises two main lines for investment in the beverage sector: quality leaders and high safety margin improvement targets [10]