目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 2025.09.29-09.30 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 2 中线行情分析 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于宽幅震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第38周油厂大豆实际压榨量242.75万吨，开机率为 67.76%；豆粕库存125万吨，较上周增加8.56万吨，增幅7.35%。油厂豆 粕库存处于高位，但假期部分油厂计划停机，有望缓解一定的库存压力。 需求方面，养殖业普遍亏损制约饲料消费，下游采购心态谨慎，不过低 价也刺激了部分节前备货需求，现货市场购销情绪有所转暖。综合来看， 市场缺乏强劲的上涨动力，但在进口成本支撑下，中线趋势预计将维持 宽幅震荡格局。 2 关注中美贸易进展及南美天气。 中线策略建议 3 豆粕期价整体趋势处于横盘阶段,资金方面较为偏多。M2601 预计维持在2900-3200之间震荡。 本周策略建议 为规避十一长假期间外盘波动风险，建议轻仓或空仓过节。 品种诊断情况 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 | 豆粕(m) v く | | --- | | 品种诊断 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Low long [3] - Pig: Range trading [5] - Egg: High short [5] 2. Core Views - **Corn**: Short - term, pay attention to import corn auction rhythm and corn - wheat price difference; mid - term, conduct band trading around new - season corn drivers; long - term, maintain the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost and focus on policy orientation [3] - **Pig**: Short - term, supply exceeds demand, pressuring pig prices; mid - term, supply is expected to increase, limiting price increases; long - term, pig production capacity will continue to materialize if no epidemic occurs [5] - **Egg**: Mid - short - term, holiday stocking weakens, and egg prices may decline if inventory rises; long - term, focus on the extent of chicken culling, and supply pressure may re - emerge in Q4 [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn Important Information - Deep - processing enterprise purchase prices vary: Northeast down 12 yuan/ton to 2155 yuan/ton, North China up 18 yuan/ton to 2370 yuan/ton [3] - Port prices: North weak, South stable. Jinzhou Port down 10 yuan/ton, Shekou Port unchanged [3] - Corn futures warehouse receipts unchanged at 23814 as of September 24 [3] - Wheat - corn price difference in Shandong is + 80 yuan/ton, narrowing by 10 yuan/ton [3] - Corn bidding procurement: 2.15 million tons planned, 1.91 million tons transacted, 89% success rate [3] - August 2025 national industrial feed output is 29.36 million tons, up 3.7% MoM and 3.8% YoY [3] Market Logic - Short - term, support at 2050 - 2150 yuan/ton, pressure from wheat - corn price difference [3] - Mid - term, conduct band trading around new - season corn, with wide - range trading [3] - Long - term, follow import substitution and planting cost pricing, focus on policies [3] Trading Strategy - Mid - long - term, maintain range trading; short - term, look for low - long opportunities. Support for 2511 contract at 2100 - 2130, 2601 contract at 2100 - 2120 [3] Pig Market Review - LH2511 contract closed flat at 12730 yuan/ton yesterday [5] Important Information - National average pig price is 12.51 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg; expected morning prices are weak - stable [5] - July 2025 fertile sow inventory is 40.42 million, 103.64% of normal level; July sow culling up 2.1% MoM [5] - September 24 fattening - standard price difference is 0.2 yuan/jin, narrowing by 0.01 yuan/jin [5] - September 18 weekly average slaughter weight is 124.68 kg, up 0.36 kg [5] - September 24 pig futures warehouse receipts down 59 to 368 [5] - 15,000 tons of central reserve frozen pork will be released on September 28 [5] Market Logic - Short - term, supply exceeds demand, North may stop falling, South remains weak [5] - Mid - term, supply is expected to increase, limiting price increases [5] - Long - term, sow inventory is high, production capacity will continue to materialize [5] Trading Strategy - Near - month contracts follow supply - demand logic, suggest taking profit on short positions; far - month contracts trade on de - capacity expectation difference. Support for 2511 contract at 12300 - 12500, 2601 contract at 12800 - 13000, etc. [5] Egg Market Review - JD2511 contract fell 0.46% to 3056 yuan/500kg yesterday [5] Important Information - Egg prices are mainly stable, main production area unchanged, main sales area down 0.02 yuan/jin [5] - Inventory increased slightly, production link stable, circulation link up 0.02 days [5] - Old hen price is 4.5 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin; September 18 average culling age is 497 days, up 2 days [5] - August in - production laying hen inventory is 1.365 billion, up 0.66% MoM and 5.98% YoY; September estimated at 1.353 billion, down 0.8% MoM [5] Market Logic - Mid - short - term, holiday stocking weakens, egg prices may decline with rising inventory [5] - Long - term, focus on chicken culling, supply pressure may re - emerge in Q4 [5] Trading Strategy - Maintain high - short strategy before large - scale culling. Pressure for 2511 contract at 3090 - 3100, etc. Also, breeding enterprises can consider selling hedging opportunities for 2607 and 2608 contracts [5]

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Price Movements - Since the third quarter, the "anti-involution" policy has boosted bullish sentiment in the commodity market, leading to a significant rebound in stainless steel futures, with the main contract breaking through 13,300 yuan/ton [1] - In mid-August, stainless steel futures prices quickly declined as market bullish sentiment cooled, but by September, prices returned to an upward trend due to strong fundamentals and rising raw material prices [1] Group 2: Raw Material Prices - Nickel ore prices remain firm despite a seasonal increase in imports and a rise in port inventories, with domestic prices influenced by strong pricing intentions from Philippine mines [2] - The domestic market for nickel iron has seen increased competition, with prices stabilizing around 950-960 yuan/nickel point, while Indonesian nickel iron prices are reported at 960 yuan/nickel point [2] - Chrome ore prices have remained stable, with current prices for South African chrome concentrate at approximately 57 yuan/ton, while future prices have increased to 284 USD/ton due to rising shipping costs [2] Group 3: Downstream Demand and Production - The traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" has led to a slight improvement in downstream demand for stainless steel, with August apparent consumption at 2.7529 million tons, a 4.16% month-on-month increase [4] - Social inventory of stainless steel has seen a "four consecutive declines" trend, with a 2.51% decrease to 987,100 tons as of September 18 [4] - Cold-rolled stainless steel production has rebounded, with July production at 1.4625 million tons and August at 1.4829 million tons, while September production is expected to reach 1.5156 million tons [4] Group 4: Price Outlook and Trading Strategy - In the short term, stainless steel futures are expected to continue a range-bound trading pattern, with 13,300 yuan/ton as the upper resistance and 12,750 yuan/ton as the lower support [5] - Factors such as rising raw material prices and steel mills' pricing intentions provide strong support for prices, while limited demand growth may hinder sustained price increases [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both industrial silicon and lithium carbonate futures are currently in a large - range oscillatory operation. For industrial silicon, the 2511 contract is expected to operate between 7,700 and 10,000, and for lithium carbonate, the 2511 contract is expected to operate between 65,000 and 100,000 [6][31][32]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - Mid - term trend: Industrial silicon futures are in large - range oscillatory operation. The spot price increased last week. As of September 19, the 421 price in Xinjiang was 9,000 yuan/ton, in Yunnan 9,800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan 9,900 yuan/ton. The AI report shows the daily price is in a sideways phase, and the main long - position camp has a slight advantage. The 2511 contract is expected to operate between 7,700 and 10,000 [6][7]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week's strategy: Trade by buying at low prices in the large - range operation. - This week's strategy: Trade by buying at low prices in the large - range operation [10][11]. - **Related Data** - As of April 19, 2024, SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 25.73%, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [13][17]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - Mid - term trend: Lithium carbonate futures are in large - range oscillatory operation. The spot price increased last week. As of September 19, the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,250 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade was 71,600 yuan/ton. The AI report shows the futures are in a downward channel, and there is no obvious long - short bias among the main players. The 2511 contract is expected to operate between 65,000 and 100,000 [31][32]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week's strategy: Consider grid trading within the range. - This week's strategy: Consider grid trading within the range [35]. - **Related Data** - As of April 19, 2024, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 66.03%, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [37][38].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Sugar**: International sugar prices face downward pressure due to India's planned resumption of sugar exports in the 2025/26 season and other bearish factors, but the downside of raw sugar is limited. In the domestic market, there is limited room for a rebound after the release of negative factors, and a bearish outlook is maintained in the medium to long term [3]. - **Pulp**: As the peak season approaches, downstream demand is expected to improve, and the demand for wood pulp replenishment may increase. Policy expectations and sentiment have improved, providing some support for pulp at a low valuation, but caution is still needed regarding the upside potential [4]. - **Offset Paper**: There are expectations of improved demand as the peak season approaches, which provides some support for the spot price. However, the upward driving force is not clear, and the price increase may be limited. Consideration can be given to inter - month reverse spreads and medium - term long - pulp short - paper arbitrage [6]. - **Cotton**: Both the international and domestic cotton markets are affected by factors such as the expected Fed rate cut and the balance between old - season supply tightening and new - season supply expectations. Short - term prices may fluctuate repeatedly [7]. - **Apples**: The main logic is the expected difference in the new season. As the new season harvest approaches, the output and high - quality fruit rate will be verified. Short - term prices are expected to remain within a range [8]. - **Jujubes**: The weather trading window is shortening, and the futures premium over the spot has converged. The inventory is being depleted faster, and the market is in a state of seeking direction. Aggressive investors can short at high levels, and cautious investors can consider reverse spreads [10]. Summary by Directory Part I: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2601, adopt a range - trading strategy with a support range of 7500 - 7600 and a pressure range of 8500 - 8600. For Jujube 2601, short at high levels, with a support range of 10500 - 11000 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000 [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, short on rebounds, with a support range of 5480 - 5500 and a pressure range of 5580 - 5600. For Pulp 2511, take a bearish view within the range, with a support range of 4900 - 495 and a pressure range of 5150 - 5200. For Offset Paper 2601, short on rebounds, with a support range of 4100 - 4200 and a pressure range of 4400 - 4500. For Cotton 2601, adopt a range - trading strategy, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 14300 - 14400 [18]. Part II: Market News Changes 1. Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In July, China's fresh apple exports were about 5.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.39%. As of September 10, 2025, the cold - storage inventory in the main apple - producing areas was 20.91 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.44 tons. Different institutions have different estimates of apple production, with one showing a 2.03% decrease and the other a 2.35% increase [19]. - **Spot Market**: The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong production area is stable. The early - maturing variety Red General has entered the market, with significant price differences. The transaction price in the northwest production area is high, and the price in the sales area is stable [20][21]. 2. Jujube Market The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 9321 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.95% and a year - on - year increase of 78.32%. The market is in a state of seeking direction [22]. 3. Sugar Market India plans to start sugar exports in the new season starting in October 2025. The spot sugar price in Guangxi and Kunming has remained relatively stable, with some merchants slightly reducing their quotes [24]. 4. Pulp Market Some suppliers have reduced the price of non - NBSK softwood pulp by $10/ton, while most suppliers intend to keep the price of imported NBSK unchanged. South American hardwood pulp suppliers have raised prices, but Chinese buyers are reluctant to accept the increase [27]. 5. Offset Paper Market The mainstream transaction prices in different regions such as Shandong, Guangdong, Beijing, and Sichuan vary, with some prices decreasing and some remaining stable. The market is in a state of weak demand and more wait - and - see sentiment [28][29]. 6. Cotton Market In August 2025, Brazil exported 7.8 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 30.7%. The 2025/26 annual export volume is expected to reach 310 tons. The new - cotton picking progress in 2025 is 91%, and the processing progress is 31%. The cotton situation in different countries such as Pakistan, Vietnam, and India shows different import and export trends [30][31][32]. Part III: Market Review 1. Futures Market Review The closing prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Apple 2601, Jujube 2601, Sugar 2601, Pulp 2511, and Cotton 2601 are provided, showing different trends [33]. 2. Spot Market Review The spot prices, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and cotton are presented, with different price trends [40]. Part IV: Basis Situation No specific text content is provided, only some related figure information is mentioned [51]. Part V: Inter - month Spread Situation The inter - month spreads of apples, jujubes, sugar, and cotton are in a state of range fluctuations, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [60]. Part VI: Futures Positioning Situation No specific text content is provided, only some related figure information is mentioned [66]. Part VII: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation The current warehouse receipt quantities, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton are given [85]. Part VIII: Option - related Data No specific text content is provided, only some related figure information is mentioned [85].

Group 1 - The main trend of nickel futures is showing a strong fluctuation, with the main contract reaching a peak of 122,900.00 yuan and closing at 122,580.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.15% increase [1] - The market is currently experiencing a short-term range trading strategy, with sufficient raw material guarantees for smelters due to the 2025 RKAB approval quota, despite ongoing policy disturbances [2] - Nickel imports in July remained high, and Indonesia's nickel pig iron supply continued to be robust in August, contributing to a high output of electrolytic nickel [2] Group 2 - The stainless steel production saw a high-level decline in July, with a marginal increase in August, while the demand for sulfate showed signs of improvement [2] - The current inventory of stainless steel is relatively large, indicating a trend towards destocking [2] - The nickel price is viewed as having potential for rebound due to the current low levels, with cost support around 120,000 yuan, and macroeconomic sentiment being relatively positive [3]

Report Overview - This is a weekly report on soybean meal and soybean oil futures from September 1st to September 5th, 2025, covering mid - term market analysis, trading strategies, and relevant data [1][2] 1. Soybean Meal Futures 1.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. The current high soybean crushing volume by oil mills ensures stable supply, while downstream feed enterprises purchase cautiously. High US soybean good - quality rates strengthen the supply - abundant pattern. However, supported by import costs and pre - festival stocking demand, and with uncertainties in fourth - quarter soybean arrivals, the futures are expected to continue the wide - range oscillation trend. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade progress [6] 1.2 Trading Strategies - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices was sideways, with a bullish bias in funds. The M2601 contract might be in an oscillatory trend in the short term, with an expected trading range of 3000 - 3250 [10] - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices remains sideways, with a bullish bias in funds. The M2601 contract may continue the oscillatory trend in the short term, with an expected trading range of 2980 - 3200 [11] 1.3 Relevant Data - The data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department, covering soybean meal weekly production, inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio [19][22][24] 2. Soybean Oil Futures 2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The soybean oil main contract is in an oscillatory consolidation phase. The current soybean oil production is at a high level year - on - year, and the overall supply - abundant pattern persists. Market sentiment is affected by factors such as Sino - US negotiation uncertainties, Fed interest - rate cut expectations, biodiesel policies, and international crude oil and related oil prices. Overall, soybean oil futures prices are expected to mainly oscillate and consolidate. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [29] 2.2 Trading Strategies - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was in an upward channel, with a bullish bias in funds. The Y2601 contract might be in a high - level oscillatory pattern in the short term [32] - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is in a downward channel, with a strongly bullish bias in funds. The Y2601 contract may maintain an oscillatory consolidation pattern in the short term [32] 2.3 Relevant Data - The data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department, covering soybean oil weekly production, inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrivals, inventory, crushing volume, startup rate, port inventory, and Brazilian premium [42][45][47]

Core Insights - The article discusses the life and career of Su Bing, a prominent figure in the futures trading industry, who recently passed away at the age of 40 due to a sudden heart attack. His story reflects both the potential for success in trading and the health risks associated with the high-pressure environment of the industry [2][34]. Group 1: Career Journey - Su Bing started his trading career in 2015 with a capital of 600,000 yuan, but faced significant losses, reducing his capital to 80,000 yuan within three months [4]. - He developed a trading strategy based on understanding market fundamentals and technical analysis, which allowed him to capitalize on market fluctuations effectively [6][8]. - His trading success led to a significant increase in his capital, growing from 80,000 yuan to 3,000,000 yuan over several years, particularly benefiting from the rise in energy and agricultural product prices in 2021 [12][14]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - Su Bing emphasized the importance of risk management, stating that no single loss should exceed 2% of the capital, prioritizing the avoidance of being trapped in losing positions [10]. - He documented his trading insights in a book titled "Short-term Trading Notes," which became a valuable resource for new traders in the industry [17]. - His annualized return was close to 40%, significantly higher than the average annualized return of 12%-15% for domestic futures traders, marking him as a standout in the field [15]. Group 3: Business Operations - Su Bing founded Shandong Hongye Mingyang Investment Co., Ltd., focusing on providing futures asset allocation services to familiar clients, avoiding public fundraising and complex regulatory processes [19][21]. - His approach to client management was characterized by a high level of personal responsibility, often advising clients against high-risk investments based on thorough market analysis [23][25]. Group 4: Health and Industry Impact - Despite his success, Su Bing's dedication to his work led to health issues, including symptoms of heart problems that he neglected to address [26][29]. - His untimely death has raised awareness in the financial community about the importance of health and work-life balance, prompting many to reconsider their own habits and health practices [32][34]. - Su Bing's story serves as a cautionary tale about the potential consequences of overworking in the high-stress environment of futures trading, highlighting the need for a healthier lifestyle [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information was provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, industrial products, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It emphasizes the importance of considering multiple factors such as supply - demand dynamics, seasonal patterns, and policy changes when making investment decisions. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum price rose slightly. Supply capacity increased, and demand showed signs of improvement. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Alumina**: The price increased. Supply capacity continued to rise, and there was an oversupply pressure. It is advisable to sell call options if holding spot [2]. - **Zinc**: The price increased. Supply increased significantly, and demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to sell on rallies [2]. - **Lead**: The price decreased. Supply and demand were both weak, with a slight inventory build - up. Interval trading is suggested [2]. Industrial Products - **Silicon**: The price declined. Supply increased, and demand improved marginally. The market is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price dropped sharply. Supply and demand are expected to be tight from August to October. Due to large - scale outflow of long - speculating funds, the price is volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The price decreased. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to buy on dips [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price rose slightly. Supply and demand are balanced with structural differentiation. It is recommended to take profit on the 10/1 reverse spread and wait and see on the single - side [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price increased. Supply and demand are moderately strong with a weakening margin. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The price increased. Supply and demand are relatively loose with improving fundamentals. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The price changed little. Supply may shrink in the short - term and increase in the long - term. Demand has differences. The domestic price is expected to follow the international cost - end and fluctuate strongly [6]. - **Corn**: The price fluctuated narrowly. Supply increased, and demand was weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. - **Cotton**: The price fluctuated strongly. International production has differences, and domestic demand showed signs of recovery. It is recommended to buy on dips [6][7]. - **Palm Oil**: The price declined. Supply is in the seasonal increase period, and demand improved. The short - term trading is difficult, and the long - term outlook is tight [7]. - **Eggs**: The price fluctuated. Supply was sufficient, and demand may increase seasonally. The futures price is expected to be weak [7]. - **Hogs**: The price was weak. Supply was sufficient, and demand is expected to recover. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price first fell and then rose. Supply increased, and demand improved. In the short - term, it will fluctuate, and in the long - term, it is advisable to short far - month contracts on rallies [8]. - **PTA**: The price was stable. PX supply is at a high level, and PTA supply is at a low level. It is recommended to go long on PX and short PTA processing fees or far - month contracts [8][9]. - **Rubber**: The price first fell and then rose. Supply increased, and demand was for rigid replenishment. It is recommended to buy on dips after a pull - back [9]. - **PP**: The price first fell and then rose. Supply increased, and demand is expected to improve. In the short - term, it will fluctuate weakly, and in the long - term, short far - month contracts on rallies [9]. - **MEG**: The price was stable. Supply and demand were in a tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Styrene**: The price rebounded slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to improve. In the short - term, it will fluctuate, and in the long - term, short far - month contracts on rallies [9][10].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for agricultural products showed a mostly positive trend, with apple futures experiencing a price increase of approximately 1.91%, reaching a high of 8192.00 yuan/ton [1] - The main contract for apples opened at 8100.00 yuan/ton and fluctuated between a low of 8062.00 yuan and a high of 8192.00 yuan, indicating a strong performance in the market [1] - Southwest Futures noted that the main contract represents the new season's purchase price, with a slight increase in national production, contradicting previous reduction expectations [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Futures highlighted that the supply of early-ripening apples has decreased in recent years, leading to a significant price differentiation in the market, with high-quality apples commanding higher prices [2] - The new season's apple bagging quantity is slightly lower than the previous season, and the purchase prices for early-ripening apples in the northwest region are higher than last year, providing some support for late-ripening varieties [2] - The market is advised to consider buying on dips in the short term, focusing on the performance of the new season's apple production [2]