Market Overview - In February 2026, major asset classes experienced declines due to concerns over the new Fed chair's "balance sheet reduction" policy, geopolitical tensions, and AI-related worries, particularly affecting precious metals[4] - The South Korean stock market outperformed with a gain of 19.5%, followed by Japan's Nikkei 225 at +10.4% and European indices such as the FTSE 100 (+6.7%) and CAC40 (+5.6%) [5] Fund Flows - Global stock and bond markets saw increased net inflows, with emerging markets attracting more capital than developed markets; passive funds were a significant driver of this trend[6] - In February, U.S. stock markets had a net inflow of $13.38 billion, while European stocks saw a substantial increase in net inflows to $36.9 billion, up from $23.06 billion the previous month[12] Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy showed signs of "stagflation" with a Q4 2025 GDP growth rate of 1.4%, significantly below the expected 2.8%[14] - Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8 in February, indicating a recovery, while inflation rates showed a decrease to 1.7%[14] Policy Developments - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled against certain tariffs, leading to a temporary 10% global import tariff imposed by the Trump administration, which may affect trade agreements[15] - The European Central Bank maintained its interest rates, while Japan's monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative despite rising inflation concerns[18] Commodity Trends - Gold prices fluctuated significantly, reaching over $5,300 per ounce due to geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. monetary policy expectations[23] - Brent crude oil prices rose to nearly $80 per barrel amid ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly between the U.S. and Iran[23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current domestic macro - environment in China is generally favorable, serving as the core support for risk assets in Q1. Overseas, the focus is on the Walsh trade, US tariff developments, and Middle East geopolitical tensions. It is recommended to moderately increase risk appetite and enhance offensive positioning within a balanced framework [7][8][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 February Review of Major Assets - Global major asset classes in February shifted towards "structural divergence". In the equity market, A - shares outperformed overall with style differences, mid - cap and small - to - mid cap segments led, while large - cap indices lagged. Hong Kong stocks were weak, tech sector retreats were notable. Developed markets in overseas equities diverged, emerging markets performed better. In the bond market, rate - sensitive assets were stable. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar strengthened, pressuring non - dollar currencies. In the commodity market, it was overall weak but with structural features [14][15][18]. 3.2 Market Focus: The Unfolding of the "Walsh Trade" - The market's perception of Kevin Walsh's trading legacy has evolved. The "Walsh Trade" was initially characterized by a bull flattening of the yield curve. The key contention is the feasibility of "rate cuts + QT". If QT triggers a liquidity crisis, it may invalidate Walsh's policy framework. His policy mix is more supportive of growth - oriented equities but may pressure long - dated bonds [22][24][25]. 3.3 Macro Environment Outlook 3.3.1 Overseas Macro - Global manufacturing PMI edged up in January to 50.9. US macro data in January showed signs of a "Goldilocks" scenario with inflation softening, unemployment rate declining, and employment data improving. Q4 GDP missed expectations but the effects of rate cuts may be materializing. Tariff developments added market uncertainty, and the legal effect of a court decision on tariffs may take effect from mid - March to early April [26][30][33]. 3.3.2 Chinese Domestic Macro - The domestic macroeconomic outlook will remain generally supportive in Q1, with favorable investment environment for risk assets. Policy expectations for a strong start to the 15th Five - Year Plan and anticipated inflation rebound are the core themes, and economic structural transformation and upgrading are long - term drivers [36]. 3.4 Outlook for Major Assets 3.4.1 Stock Index - In March, the domestic equity market is likely to continue its volatile yet upward movement. Policy acceleration, recovering inflation, and economic structural transformation are the driving factors. It is recommended to overweight IC [39]. 3.4.2 Commodities - **Precious Metals**: In March, geopolitical trading and tariff adjustments will drive the market. Precious metals may trend higher with gold receiving stronger impetus from geopolitical factors [44]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Geopolitical factors may support non - ferrous metals. Prices may be volatile but biased higher. Copper, aluminum, and tin may see price centers shift upward [50]. - **Ferrous Metals**: In March, there will be a tug - of - war between inventory trends and policy expectations. Ferrous metals are expected to trade in wide ranges, and iron ore faces significant downside pressure [54]. - **Energy & Chemicals**: Oil prices will enter a validation phase for geopolitical supply disruption concerns. Chemical products have limited downside and merit attention [59]. 3.4.3 Bonds - In March, short - duration bonds are likely to outperform medium - to long - duration bonds, and overall asset payoff is modest. Future rate - cut space appears limited [64]. 3.5 Strategic Asset Allocation Recommendations - In March, moderately increase risk appetite and adopt a more aggressive posture on a balanced allocation framework. Overweight mid - cap style in domestic equity indices (focus on IC), have a neutral stance on government bonds with a standard long position in the short end (focus on TS), overweight non - ferrous metals, have a standard long in the chemical chain, and a standard short in ferrous metals. Overweight gold futures and have a standard position in silver futures [68][69][70].

Group 1 - The global market is experiencing significant divergence at the beginning of 2026, with a focus on asset rotation and industry trends [2] - A series of high-profile guests, including economists and analysts, will provide insights on asset trends, geopolitical analysis, and industry forecasts throughout the first quarter [2] - The A-share market has seen a 18-day rally followed by a pullback, with trading volume nearing 4 trillion, while the US stock market is experiencing a high-level correction [3] Group 2 - The bond market shows a mixed trend, with Chinese bonds exhibiting a bullish flattening yield curve, while US bonds are experiencing a bearish steepening [3] - Commodity markets are divided, with precious and base metals surging after volatility, while energy and black metals are underperforming due to supply-demand imbalances [3] - Upcoming events, such as the March Federal Reserve meeting and major tech conferences, are expected to influence market sentiment and investment strategies [5][3] Group 3 - The Alpha online closed-door private meeting series will host at least 36 sessions throughout 2026, focusing on market hotspots and core issues [7] - Each session will feature insights from leading experts and provide a platform for interactive Q&A, helping participants navigate asset movements [7][5] - The series aims to assist high-net-worth individuals in making informed investment decisions by offering timely market insights [7]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals are currently the focus of market trading, but increased volatility has made trading more challenging. The article aims to analyze the significant fluctuations in precious metals and the potential logical developments that may follow [3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The surge in prices began in early December, driven by factors such as the physical currency logic, the continuous weakening of the US dollar index, and heightened market expectations leading to a "short squeeze" logic [4]. - The decline in prices started on January 29, primarily triggered by the "Walsh trade," with the equity market's downturn exacerbating liquidity feedback, leading to a chain reaction of sell-offs across various asset classes [4][21]. - The current precious metals market is in a period of adjustment following significant volatility, with January's surge reflecting a prelude to the collapse of the US dollar's credit, while February's drop serves as a stress test for tightening liquidity expectations [5][43]. Group 2: Key Drivers of Price Movements - The price surge from December to January was fundamentally linked to the deterioration of US dollar credit, physical currency dynamics, and expectations of liquidity easing. The US dollar index fell from 100 to a low of 95.6 during this period [6]. - The logic of physical currency was driven by the decline in sovereign credit, with rising global bond yields due to inflation and default risks prompting a shift of funds into physical precious metals [7]. - The US federal government debt exceeded $38 trillion by the end of 2025, with a fiscal deficit rate expanding to 5.85%, indicating significant risks in the fiscal situation and leading to a depreciation of dollar credit [10]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Following the volatility in early February, the precious metals market has shifted from speculative frenzy to a more rational state, with implied volatility significantly decreasing from historical highs [28]. - Non-commercial long positions have been significantly reduced, indicating a cleansing of speculative leverage that had accumulated above $100, leading to a healthier market structure [29]. - Silver prices found strong support at the 60-day moving average, indicating robust buying interest from industrial capital, while the US dollar index faced resistance at the 98 level, confirming its role as a mid-term top [32]. Group 4: Future Core Drivers - The future direction of the precious metals market will depend on whether the core logic of physical currency and dollar credit remains unchanged, with three main drivers to watch: the interplay between physical currency and dollar credit, liquidity logic and policy support, and the potential for a silver squeeze [33]. - Observing the 10-year US Treasury yield against the dollar index will be crucial, as a divergence could signal a re-evaluation of dollar credit risk [34]. - The liquidity logic is critical, with the reserve ratio of the Federal Reserve falling to around 11%, indicating potential liquidity risks that could prompt a shift in policy from tightening to easing [39].

Global Wash Trading - The concept of "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction" is central to Wash's philosophy, emphasizing the need to reshape the relationship between monetary policy and fiscal policy, technology, and market dynamics [3][4][6] - The core logic behind rate cuts is based on the belief that the constraints on U.S. economic growth are supply-side rather than demand-side, with AI technology potentially enhancing productivity and efficiency [3] - The rationale for balance sheet reduction is that resource allocation should dynamically adjust according to the private sector's development, allowing the market to efficiently allocate resources when productivity improves [4][6] Impact on U.S. Monetary Policy - In the short term, Wash's ideas may have limited impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy due to the current economic conditions and the need for further verification of AI's productivity claims [7] - In the medium term, if the Fed under Wash's leadership recognizes the potential for low rates and no inflation growth driven by productivity, it may open up more policy space for rate cuts and balance sheet reduction [7] Market Implications - Recent market volatility is not solely attributed to Wash's nomination; rather, it is influenced by broader market trends and the narrative surrounding AI's impact on productivity [8] - Market fluctuations may amplify in 2026 if Wash reduces communication with the market, especially as global monetary policy shifts [8] - The core contradiction in the global market remains the evolution of political order and industrial structure, with the performance of U.S. dollar assets hinging on the realization of AI-driven productivity growth [9] Reflections on Chinese Assets - The global interest rate cycle is nearing its end, which is likely to amplify asset price volatility, necessitating consideration of this backdrop in the Chinese asset market [10] - The narrative of AI prosperity in the U.S. will influence foreign capital inflows into China; if the narrative holds, confidence in dollar assets may persist, delaying significant foreign investment in China [10] - Market focus is expected to shift towards fundamentals, profitability, and dividend support as key economic data and policy directions emerge in 2026 [11] - The pricing logic of gold is fundamentally different from that of silver, copper, and Bitcoin, with gold being viewed as a strategic asset amid global order restructuring [12] Core Insights - The identity of Wash is less important than whether the narrative of AI prosperity can transition into reality; the core constraint on the U.S. economy lies in the supply side, while China's economic constraints are demand-driven [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant fluctuations in gold prices driven by market concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly regarding Iran [1][2] - The Taikang ETF (159163) tracking the CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index (931892) has shown strong performance, with a 3.08% increase in the index and notable gains in constituent stocks such as Tungsten High-Tech (up 8.17%) and Xiamen Tungsten (up 6.59%) [1] - Citic Securities maintains an optimistic outlook for precious and nonferrous metal prices for the year 2026, despite recent volatility in gold prices [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities notes that the current market is characterized by a "Wash trade" environment, leading to low volatility in precious metals, with gold prices exhibiting high volatility [2] - The CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index comprises 40 listed companies with nonferrous metal mineral resources, reflecting the overall performance of the sector [2] - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index account for 53.28% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining and China Aluminum [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 8.51% in the week from February 2 to February 6, ranking last among all primary industries. Precious metals saw a significant drop of 17.38%, while industrial metals fell by 9.49% [1][14] - The market is currently in a low-risk environment characterized by "Wash Trading," leading to continued high volatility in precious metals. The report remains optimistic about gold's upward momentum in the context of expansive monetary policies, while silver's performance will depend on changes in physical asset holdings [1][4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.27%, with the non-ferrous metals sector declining by 8.51%, underperforming the index by 7.24 percentage points [14] - All sub-sectors within non-ferrous metals experienced declines, with precious metals down 17.38%, industrial metals down 9.49%, and energy metals down 3.59% [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices for copper decreased, with LME copper at $13,060 per ton (down 0.08%) and SHFE copper at ¥100,100 per ton (down 3.45%). Increased inventories in Shanghai, New York, and London are pressuring prices [2][31][32] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum prices fell to $3,110 per ton (down 0.81%), and SHFE aluminum prices dropped to ¥23,315 per ton (down 5.07%). The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to further increase inventory levels [3][36][39] - **Zinc**: LME zinc prices rose slightly to $3,383 per ton (up 0.39%), while SHFE zinc prices fell to ¥24,450 per ton (down 5.36%). Inventory levels showed mixed trends [40] - **Tin**: LME tin prices fell to $47,155 per ton (down 6.81%), and SHFE tin prices dropped to ¥357,000 per ton (down 12.71%). Increased supply from traders has led to a more relaxed market [46] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,988.60 per ounce (up 1.65%), while SHFE gold closed at ¥1,090.12 per gram (down 6.14%). Despite weak labor market data in the U.S., the market remains in a low-risk environment, supporting gold's potential for further gains [4][50][51] - **Silver**: The report emphasizes the need to monitor changes in silver holdings to assess the impact of physical asset shortages on the futures market [4][51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 8.51% in the week from February 2 to February 6, ranking last among all primary industries. Precious metals saw a significant drop of 17.38%, while industrial metals fell by 9.49% [1][14] - The market is currently in a low-risk environment characterized by "Wash Trading," with cross-asset sell-offs affecting precious metals, which continue to exhibit high volatility. The report remains optimistic about gold's upward momentum in the context of expansive monetary policies [1][4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.27%, with the non-ferrous metals sector underperforming by 7.24 percentage points [14] - All sub-sectors within non-ferrous metals declined, with precious metals leading the drop [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices for copper decreased, with LME copper at $13,060 per ton (down 0.08%) and SHFE copper at ¥100,100 per ton (down 3.45%). Increased inventories across major markets are pressuring prices [2][31][32] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum prices fell to $3,110 per ton (down 0.81%) and SHFE aluminum to ¥23,315 per ton (down 5.07%). The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to further suppress demand [3][36][39] - **Zinc**: LME zinc prices increased slightly to $3,383 per ton (up 0.39%), while SHFE zinc prices fell to ¥24,450 per ton (down 5.36%) [40] - **Tin**: LME tin prices dropped significantly to $47,155 per ton (down 6.81%), with SHFE tin at ¥357,000 per ton (down 12.71%) due to increased market supply [46] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,988.60 per ounce (up 1.65%), while SHFE gold was at ¥1,090.12 per gram (down 6.14%). Despite weak labor market data in the U.S., the market remains in a low-risk environment, supporting gold's potential for further gains [4][50][51] - **Silver**: The report emphasizes the need to monitor changes in silver positions to assess the impact of physical asset shortages on the futures market [4][51]

Macro Insights - The average weekly working hours for corporate employees decreased to 48.43 hours, lower than in 2023 and 2024, but still above pre-pandemic levels[2] - The reduction in working hours has led to an increase in leisure time, with over 54.5 hours of leisure time available weekly, which is expected to boost consumer spending[2] Strategy Insights - The nomination of Waller as Fed Chair has raised hawkish monetary policy expectations, causing the dollar index to rebound and impacting emerging markets and commodities negatively[4] - Future market stability may depend on the Fed's interest rate decisions and the performance of various asset classes, with a focus on sectors benefiting from the 14th Five-Year Plan[4] Fixed Income Insights - The bond market sentiment index rose to 116.1, indicating a slight recovery in market sentiment[5] - The average duration for funds increased to 1.39 years, while the duration for insurance decreased to 7.56 years, reflecting varying risk appetites across sectors[7] Banking Insights - New regulations on digital currencies were introduced to mitigate risks associated with virtual currencies, emphasizing the illegal status of such currencies compared to legal tender[9] - The new regulations also include management requirements for Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization, aiming to prevent speculative activities in the market[10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, lead prices entered a downward channel under the dual pressure of tightened macro - liquidity and seasonal industrial shutdown. The "Wash trade" led to a strong US dollar index, capping the valuation of non - ferrous metals including lead. Meanwhile, the domestic lead market is in a stage of weak supply and demand before the Spring Festival. The marginal contraction of supply is offset by a more severe consumption slump. The lead market is in a weak reality logic of "supply exceeding demand, rising inventories and falling prices", and the fundamental analysis remains weak [3]. - In the short - term, the market is experiencing a pre - holiday capital risk - aversion wave, with extremely low trading sentiment. The spot is weak, and the Contango structure may expand, so there is a risk of downward correction due to large fluctuations in the external market during the holiday [7]. - Looking at the whole year of 2026, lead prices are still trapped in a wide - range oscillation pattern due to over - capacity and the substitution of recycled lead. Although there is cost support at the mine end, the price ceiling will be suppressed in the long - term due to the lack of new growth points in consumption and strict environmental capacity limits [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro - level: The "Wash trade" caused the US dollar index to be strong, forming a valuation ceiling for lead [3]. - Industry - level: Before the Spring Festival, the domestic lead market is in a stage of weak supply and demand. The开工 rate of recycled lead enterprises has declined seasonally, and the consumption of downstream battery enterprises has come to a standstill. Inventories are rising [3]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Futures unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see. The current price is in a seasonal weak range but close to the cost line, so the risk of short - selling increases. It is recommended to make arrangements after the post - holiday inventory data is clear [10]. - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity of inter - period positive arbitrage. Due to the high inventory - accumulation pressure in February, the far - month contracts may be relatively stronger due to consumption recovery expectations. Observe the reverse arbitrage opportunity after the spread between the 03 - 05 contracts narrows [10]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Inventory management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, it is recommended to short the main Shanghai lead futures contract with a hedging ratio of 75% at an entry range of 17,500 yuan/ton [11]. - Raw material management: For enterprises with low raw - material inventories worried about price increases, it is recommended to long the main Shanghai lead futures contract with a hedging ratio of 50% at an entry range of 16,000 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive drivers**: In February, affected by the Spring Festival holiday and routine maintenance of some enterprises, the production of primary lead is expected to decline month - on - month. The LME lead inventory is at a relatively medium - level historically, limiting the absolute downward space [12]. - **Negative drivers**: Hawkish signals in the "Wash trade", a sharp decline in the operating rate of battery enterprises, and expected increase in social inventories approaching 100,000 tons [13]. - **Spot transaction information**: The daily average price of SMM 1 lead is 16,400 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous day; the weekly average price is 16,805 yuan/ton; the monthly average price is 17,078.75 yuan/ton. The price of domestic lead concentrates is 16,150 yuan/ton, down 0.15%, and the price of imported lead concentrates is 16,483.7 yuan/ton, down 0.3% [15]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Domestic: On February 13th, pay attention to the initial value of the accumulation of social inventories announced by SMM [17]. - International: On February 10th, pay attention to the marginal adjustment of the "balance - sheet reduction" expectation by US inflation - related data [17]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic market**: The lead price closed at 16,510 yuan/ton this week. Currently, profitable positions are mainly short in net positions. The basis and monthly spread structure show that the spot is weak, and the Contango structure may expand [18][20]. - **International market**: As of 15:00 this Friday, LME lead was at $1,948.5/ton. LME lead maintains a C - structure, and the spot is weaker than the futures [23][38]. - **Internal - external price difference tracking**: Relevant charts show the seasonal changes in lead spot import profit and loss and the relationship between the closing prices of Shanghai lead and LME lead [41]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The comparison of primary lead processing fees shows the changes in domestic and imported lead concentrate processing fees [43]. - The relationship between SMM lead concentrate monthly production and domestic lead concentrate processing fees is also presented [43]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - The relationship between lead concentrate import profit and loss and import volume is shown, as well as the monthly import volume and its year - on - year change [45][46]. - Seasonal charts of refined lead import, lead concentrate import, lead battery import and export, and lead ingot net export are provided [47][49][50]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Seasonal charts of domestic lead ingot total supply and monthly actual consumption are presented [54]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The monthly production of lead concentrates, global lead mine production, electrolytic lead production, and recycled refined lead production, as well as their year - on - year changes and seasonality, are shown [56][58]. - The capacity utilization rates of primary lead and recycled lead are presented [63]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Seasonal charts of lead battery operating rates (monthly, weekly, by type, and by region) are provided [65][66]. - Seasonal charts of lead battery import and export volumes, and the finished - product inventory days of lead battery enterprises and dealers are presented [68].