乐观消费预期及情绪仍在，碳酸锂再次增仓上涨 市场分析 2025-11-19，碳酸锂主力合约2601开于93800元/吨，收于99300元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化4.97%。当日成 交量为1767428手，持仓量为503132手，前一交易日持仓量484357手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-10880元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单26766手，较上个交易日变化155手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价85400-92400元/吨，较前一交易日变化1500元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价84600-88400元/吨，较前一交易日变化1450元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1200美元/吨，较前一日变化60美元/吨。据SMM 数据，碳酸锂期货价格触及10万元/吨，盘面看涨情绪积极。从影响因素来看，前期行情主要由碳酸锂供需基本面 推动，伴随资金逐步入场；近期则更多体现为资金面对价格的驱动，推动涨势加速。从当日现货市场实际成交情 况来看，下游企业多保持理性谨慎，采购以刚需为主，整体市场成交极少。供应端来看，锂盐厂整体开工率保持 高位运行，其中锂辉石端与盐湖端开工率均维持在60%以上，成为供应主力。预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals shows a mixed performance, with aluminum futures experiencing a slight upward trend, influenced by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in October, but Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks led to a significant decrease in the market's expectations for a rate cut in December [1] - The recent meeting between Chinese and U.S. leaders has positively impacted market sentiment regarding economic cooperation [1] Supply Dynamics - As winter approaches, northern regions are entering a production restriction phase, which is expected to affect the production of electrolytic aluminum, although the actual decline in output will take time to manifest [1] Demand Dynamics - Improved macroeconomic sentiment is boosting consumption expectations, particularly in sectors such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics, which is driving demand for aluminum products [1] Market Outlook - The positive macro sentiment is expected to dominate the aluminum market, although the fundamental support remains limited. Domestic inventory levels are average, and the spot market response is muted [1] - Short-term forecasts suggest that aluminum futures will continue to operate within a strong upward channel, with resistance levels looking towards the high point of November 2024 [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LME lead inventory has decreased from a high level, but the overall inventory is still high. With the news of Citigroup's plan to extract a large amount of lead from Singapore warehouses, the market sentiment has shifted from the weak reality of LME lead oversupply to the strong expectation of inventory reduction. The lead ingot spot import window has opened, and overseas lead ingots can be smoothly transferred to China, alleviating the overseas inventory accumulation pressure, leading to a rebound in LME lead [2]. - After the National Day in China, the downstream consumption of lead has been good. The production reduction of primary and secondary lead smelters has led to a shortage of market supply, and the low lead price has stimulated downstream purchasing. The battery enterprises' inventory has decreased, and their production has recovered after the holiday, with good orders and a slight increase in battery prices. The domestic lead ingot inventory accumulation is less than expected. The cost - side support of lead has strengthened, and the actual resumption of secondary lead production is slower than expected, not exerting much downward pressure on Shanghai lead. The news of environmental inspections in Hebei has further stimulated the entry of long - position funds, breaking the previous stalemate and causing Shanghai lead to break through the previous consolidation range [3]. - In the future, the shift of capital sentiment should be closely monitored. Against the backdrop of the US disrupting the global supply chain and the government shutdown, funds are flowing into precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The news of Citigroup's extraction of lead from Singapore warehouses has opened up upward space for LME lead. The external market may drive the domestic market to rise. Technically, Shanghai lead is expected to break through the previous high of 17,800 yuan/ton. However, due to factors such as the competitiveness of lithium batteries, pre - consumption caused by "trade - in" in China, and the impact of tariffs on battery exports, as well as the expected increase in secondary lead production after the lead price rises, the high - price range of Shanghai lead in the fourth quarter is expected to be 18,300 - 18,500 yuan/ton [4]. 3) Summary by Related Contents News - Citigroup plans to extract a large amount of lead from LME - approved Singapore warehouses as it seeks other rent - sharing transactions [2]. - Hebei will control incoming vehicles, and vehicles of China V emission standard and below are not allowed to enter factories. The transportation of waste materials and lead ingots in local secondary lead enterprises and lead - acid battery enterprises is affected, and the transportation cycle is extended [2]. Market Situation Analysis - As of October 23, 2025, the LME lead inventory has decreased to 239,750 tons, with a high proportion of cancelled warrants (68.1%). The opening of the lead ingot import window has alleviated the overseas inventory pressure [2]. - After the National Day in China, the downstream consumption of lead is good. The reduction in primary and secondary lead production has led to a shortage of supply, and the low lead price has stimulated purchasing. Battery enterprises' production has recovered, and the inventory accumulation of lead ingots is less than expected [3]. - In the primary lead sector, some enterprises have复产 and减产, and the pre - winter storage of some smelters has intensified the shortage of lead concentrates, leading to a decrease in lead concentrate TC and stronger cost - side support [3]. - In the secondary lead sector, the actual resumption of production is slower than expected, and the price difference between refined and scrap lead fluctuates in the range of 50 - 75 yuan/ton, not exerting much downward pressure on Shanghai lead [3]. Future Price Forecast - The shift of capital sentiment is crucial. Funds are flowing into precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The news of Citigroup's lead extraction has opened up upward space for LME lead, and the external market may drive the domestic market to rise [4]. - Technically, Shanghai lead is expected to break through the previous high of 17,800 yuan/ton. However, due to various factors, the high - price range of Shanghai lead in the fourth quarter is expected to be 18,300 - 18,500 yuan/ton [4].

Core Insights - The consumer willingness index in China for Q3 2025 is reported at 120.6, indicating a mild recovery in consumer sentiment, surpassing the critical threshold of 100, with a slight increase of 0.4 points from the previous quarter [1] Group 1: Consumer Sentiment - The report indicates that "stable expectations" and "strengthened guarantees" are key factors in boosting consumer confidence [1] - The survey covers a wide range of areas from first-tier cities to rural regions, with an effective sample size of 5,000, aimed at tracking changes in consumer confidence, behavior, and willingness [1] Group 2: Recommendations for Improving Consumption - Stronger policy measures are recommended to stabilize consumer expectations [2] - Deepening social security system reforms is suggested, focusing on enhancing healthcare effectiveness and alleviating the pension burden on low- to middle-income groups [2] - Creating an "anti-involution" institutional ecosystem to shift competition from price wars to value creation is advised [2] - Emphasizing the silver economy to transform aging challenges into new consumption opportunities [2] - Promoting deep integration of the cultural and tourism industries, moving from mere sightseeing to immersive experiences [2] - Reconstructing a healthy development ecosystem for the catering industry to balance the interests of platforms, enterprises, and consumers [2] - Recognizing the shift in the automotive industry from an "incremental expansion" era to a "stock optimization" era, with a focus on incentivizing differentiated innovation [2]

Core Insights - The Amazon Prime Big Deal Days promotion from October 7 to 8, 2025, has not generated the expected sales boost for sellers, leading to widespread disappointment in the seller community [1][2][3] Group 1: Advertising and Traffic Dynamics - Sellers are facing increased advertising costs with low profit margins, leading to a sentiment of despair among many [2][3] - The auction mechanism for Amazon's internal advertising has become more competitive, with top brands dominating traffic, leaving smaller sellers struggling for visibility and conversion [5][6] - Amazon has resumed limited collaboration with Google Ads in non-U.S. markets, but the overall impact on sales has been minimal, indicating a shift in traffic dynamics [5][6] Group 2: Promotional Timing and Consumer Behavior - The overlap of multiple promotional events, including Prime Day and Back to School, has led to consumer fatigue, making it difficult for the fall promotion to generate significant new purchases [7][8] - Competing promotions from other platforms, such as Temu and Walmart, have further diluted consumer attention during the Amazon fall promotion [7][8] Group 3: Economic Factors and Consumer Sentiment - Economic pressures, including inflation and rising living costs, have led to a decrease in consumer spending expectations, with a projected 5% decline in holiday spending compared to 2024 [10][11] - A significant portion of consumers (84%) plan to reduce overall spending in the coming months, impacting the effectiveness of price promotions during the fall event [10][11] Group 4: Supply and Competition - Chinese sellers now represent over 50% of active sellers on Amazon globally, leading to increased competition and price wars that further compress profit margins [12][14] - The structural competition has transformed the fall promotion into a defensive strategy for many small and medium-sized sellers, focusing on maintaining sales rather than achieving significant growth [14]

Report Summary 1. Market Analysis - On September 15, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2511 opened at 71,260 yuan/ton and closed at 72,680 yuan/ton, with a 2.31% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 482,790 lots, and the open interest was 309,446 lots, compared to 309,402 lots the previous day. The current basis is 50 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 38,963 lots, a change of 338 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the battery - grade lithium carbonate is priced at 71,300 - 73,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate is priced at 69,600 - 7,0800 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 810 US dollars/ton, a change of 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day. Downstream material factories are generally in a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and market transactions have weakened. However, due to the peak demand season and pre - National Day stockpiling needs, their purchasing willingness is strong when prices are relatively low [1]. - In terms of supply, lithium carbonate produced from spodumene accounts for over 60% of the market supply, while that from lepidolite has dropped to 15%. In September, the market shows a situation where both supply and demand increase, but demand grows faster, and a temporary supply shortage is expected this month [1]. - The weekly production increased by 544 tons to 19,963 tons, with small increases in production from spodumene, mica, and salt lakes. The weekly inventory decreased by 1,580 tons to 138,512 tons. Downstream inventory continued to increase, while inventory in the intermediate links and smelters decreased significantly, indicating good downstream restocking willingness [2]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in August, among 623 products of large - scale industries, 319 had year - on - year production growth. For example, steel production was 122.77 million tons, a 9.7% increase; cement was 148.02 million tons, a 6.2% decrease; ten non - ferrous metals were 6.98 million tons, a 3.8% increase; ethylene was 3.14 million tons, a 10.4% increase; automobile production was 2.752 million vehicles, a 10.5% increase, among which new - energy vehicles were 1.333 million vehicles, a 22.7% increase; power generation was 936.3 billion kWh, a 1.6% increase; and crude oil processing volume was 63.46 million tons, a 7.6% increase [2]. 2. Core View - The futures market showed a strong and volatile trend yesterday, mainly affected by leading companies' upward revision of battery cell shipment expectations. With support from the peak consumption season, the short - term supply - demand pattern is good, inventory is continuously decreasing, and the market has some support. It is expected that the market will fluctuate in the short term. After the resumption of mining production and the weakening of consumption, the market may decline [3]. 3. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading, sell - hedging on rallies. - Inter - delivery spread: None. - Cross - product: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Chile has revised its economic growth and inflation forecasts, indicating a more challenging economic environment than previously expected [1] Economic Growth Projections - The upper limit of the economic growth forecast for 2025 has been raised to 2.25%-2.75% [1] - Internal demand expectations have been increased from 3.2% to 4.3% [1] - Investment projections have been adjusted from 3.7% to 5.5%, driven by large projects, favorable financial conditions, and business confidence [1] - Consumption expectations have been raised from 2.6% to 3% [1] - Personal consumption forecasts have been increased from 2.2% to 2.7% [1] Inflation Expectations - The inflation forecast for the end of 2025 has been raised to 4% [1] - The timeline for inflation to reach the target of 3% has been pushed back from the first half of 2026 to the third quarter of 2026 [1] - The delay in reaching the inflation target is attributed to higher-than-expected core inflation, strong private spending, high wage pressures, and a local currency weaker than depreciation expectations [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - sentiment is positive, with the Trump tariff negotiation making progress, the "Great Beauty Act" passed, and the domestic June PMI data rebounding month - on - month. The US dollar continues to be weak, which is beneficial to the lead price. The supply and demand in the fundamentals both increase. The production of electrolytic lead and recycled lead is expected to increase month - on - month as refineries resume production. The impact of the mid - year inventory count and closing is lifted, and with the arrival of the consumption peak season, the purchasing of battery enterprises improves, and the inventory remains at a neutral level. With positive macro and micro factors and capital support, the lead price is rising and is expected to remain strong in the short term. Further improvement in consumption is expected to boost the lead price [3][6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data - From June 27th to July 4th, the SHFE lead price rose from 17,125 yuan/ton to 17,295 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 2,041.5 dollars/ton to 2,057 dollars/ton, an increase of 15.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.39 to 8.41, an increase of 0.02. The SHFE inventory increased by 1,374 tons to 53,303 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 10,150 tons to 263,275 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.09 million tons to 5.69 million tons. The spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 195 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of SHFE lead (PB2508) maintained a strong trend, with the upward momentum slightly slowing down. Affected by positive macro - sentiment, the continuous decline of the US dollar, and the expectation of improved consumption, it finally closed at 17,295 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.99%. On Friday night, it opened high and closed low. The LME lead broke through the 2,050 dollars/ton mark and finally closed at 2,057 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 0.76%. In the spot market, as of July 4th, the lead prices in Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets were at a discount to the SHFE lead 2508 contract. The downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases, mostly through long - term orders, and the spot transactions in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai area were still limited. In terms of inventory, as of July 4th, the LME weekly inventory decreased by 10,150 tons to 263,275 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 1,374 tons to 53,303 tons. As of July 3rd, the SMM five - region social inventory increased by about 900 tons to 5.69 million tons compared with last Thursday. The strong rise of lead futures prices expanded the basis, increasing the willingness of holders to deliver to the warehouse, and the inventory is expected to increase further as the current - month delivery approaches, but the increase is expected to be limited due to supply constraints and improved demand [5][6]. 3.3 Industry News - As of July 4th, the average weekly processing fees for domestic and imported lead concentrates were reported at 550 yuan/metal ton and - 50 dollars/dry ton respectively, remaining unchanged. A recycled lead refinery in the western region with a public capacity of 200,000 tons suspended production in May due to equipment failure and is expected to complete maintenance in late July. If the equipment is调试 smoothly, it is expected to produce lead normally in August. In June, the electrolytic lead production was 328,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.79%. It is expected that the production in July will increase by 4.3% month - on - month and 12.5% year - on - year to 342,600 tons. The recycled refined lead production in June was 226,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. It is expected that the production in July will increase by 12.23% month - on - month and decrease by 0.24% year - on - year to 254,100 tons [8]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventory, 1 lead premium and discount, LME lead premium and discount, price difference between primary lead and recycled refined lead, waste battery price, recycled lead enterprise profit, lead concentrate processing fee, electrolytic lead production, recycled refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [9][11][12].

Group 1 - The consumer price index has not met expectations, currently at -0.1%, making it unlikely to achieve the 2% target set in the report, which is already lower than last year's 3% target [2] - Achieving the 2% target is crucial, especially in 2025, as it will be a significant year due to an unprecedented tariff war that will reshape the economy's reliance on external demand [3] - The macroeconomic strategy involves stimulating domestic consumption to counteract the effects of the tariff war, emphasizing the need for a strong internal market to avoid factory closures and unemployment [3] Group 2 - The challenge lies in boosting consumer spending, with strategies including lowering deposit rates and providing consumption subsidies, but market reactions have been tepid, leading to concerns among scholars [5] - Direct cash distribution to consumers is suggested as a more effective method to stimulate spending, allowing consumers to dictate market resource allocation rather than pushing them to buy surplus products [5][9] - The lack of positive expectations is a significant barrier to consumption and investment, with banks holding vast amounts of deposits due to a pessimistic outlook on the private economy and structural issues in income distribution [7] Group 3 - The most effective consumption stimulus policy is direct cash distribution combined with improving expectations, aiming to reduce household debt and promote consumption upgrades [9] - Addressing insufficient domestic demand is critical, especially in the context of the tariff war, as failure to do so could lead to ongoing economic risks [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and shipping. Different commodities face different supply - demand situations and market factors, leading to diverse trading outlooks [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: Prices oscillated. Supply of copper ore remained tight, and domestic inventories decreased weekly. Short - term trading should adopt an oscillatory approach [1]. - **Zinc**: The 2506 contract price declined. Supply was expected to be in surplus in the long - run, and 5 - month consumption was pessimistic. If domestic demand was insufficient, prices might fall further, but short - term support came from low inventories [1]. - **Lead**: The 2506 contract price rose. Supply was affected by raw material shortages and low production enthusiasm. Demand was weak, and post - holiday inventory accumulation was likely. Buying on dips after price drops was advisable [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 2506 contract price increased. Supply was expected to increase with some restarts, and demand was weak. Short - selling on rebounds was recommended [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2507 contract price rose. Supply decreased, and demand was mixed. Futures prices were expected to oscillate downward, and holding short positions or waiting was recommended [1][2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The PS2506 contract price fluctuated. Bulls and bears were in a tug - of war, and waiting was recommended [2]. - **Tin**: Prices were strong. Market risk preference was boosted, and short - term trading should be based on an oscillatory view [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract price fell. Supply and demand were both weak, and inventory pressure was low due to low production. Short positions should be held [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract price declined. Near - term supply - demand was neutral - strong, but medium - term surplus was expected. Short positions in the 2509 contract could be attempted [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract price decreased. Supply - demand was relatively loose, and waiting was recommended [3][4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans were expected to oscillate, and domestic soybeans were short - term bearish and medium - term followed the international market. Trade policies and sowing areas should be monitored [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract price oscillated. Supply - demand tightened, and prices were expected to rise. Buying on dips was recommended [5]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract price rose. Brazil's new season was expected to be productive, and domestic prices were expected to fall with a smaller margin. A bearish trading approach was recommended [5]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and Zhengzhou cotton prices also declined. Selling on rallies was recommended [5]. - **Log**: The 07 contract price dropped. Supply was strong, demand was weak, and waiting was recommended [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices rose. Supply was seasonally increasing, and demand improved. It was in a seasonal weak phase, and production and policies should be monitored [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2506 contract price oscillated. Supply was high, and prices were expected to decline [6]. - **Pigs**: The 2509 contract price oscillated. Supply was increasing, and prices were expected to decline with resistance [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract price fell. Supply was increasing, and demand was expected to decline. Short - term and long - term short - selling on rallies were recommended [7]. - **PVC**: The V09 contract price declined. Supply was large, and exports cooled. After the contract returned to a high premium, hedging was recommended [7]. - **PTA**: PX supply decreased, and PTA short - term pressure eased. Positive spreads should be held, and short - selling on far - month rebounds was recommended [8]. - **Glass**: The FG09 contract price fell. Supply was increasing, and inventory was accumulating. Prices were expected to continue falling [8]. - **PP**: The main contract price fell. Supply was rising, and demand was expected to weaken due to tariffs. Short - term prices were expected to oscillate downward [8]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure increased, and demand was weak. Short - term waiting was recommended, and cost support should be monitored [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices rebounded. Short - term prices were expected to oscillate, and the Brent price range was $55 - 65 per barrel [8][9]. - **Styrene**: Supply was expected to accumulate slightly, and demand was affected by tariffs. Prices were expected to follow the cost of pure benzene and oscillate downward [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA09 contract price fell. Supply was high, and inventory was difficult to digest. Prices were expected to oscillate, and selling out - of - the - money call options at 1500 was recommended [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The sh09 contract price fell. Inventory decreased, and prices were expected to stop falling and stabilize [9]. Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The main contract price fell. Supply was affected by tariff policies, and demand was mixed. Unilateral trading should wait, and a light - position long spread for 8 - 10 months could be tried [10].