证券研究报告 | 2025年09月28日 宏观经济宏观周报 高频指标继续提示经济回暖 主要结论：高频指标继续提示经济回暖。 经济增长方面，本周(9 月 26 日所在周）国信高频宏观扩散指数 A 维持正值， 指数 B 继续明显上升。从分项来看，本周投资、房地产领域景气继续上升， 消费领域景气变化不大，本周投资、房地产领域表现较优。从季节性比较来 看，本周指数 B 标准化后上升 0.43，表现明显强于历史平均水平，指向国内 经济增长动能继续回暖。 基于国信高频宏观扩散指数对资产价格进行预测，显示当前国内利率偏低， 上证综合指数偏高，从均值回归的角度看，预计下周（2025 年 10 月 3 日所 在周）十年期国债利率将上行，上证综合指数将下行。 周度价格高频跟踪方面： （1）本周食品、非食品价格均上涨。预计 9 月 CPI 食品价格环比约为 1.5%， 非食品价格环比约为零，整体 CPI 环比约为 0.3%，CPI 同比回升至-0.1%。 （2）9 月上旬国内流通领域生产资料价格继续下跌且跌幅有所扩大，9 月中 旬延续下跌。预计 9 月 PPI 环比约为-0.1%，低基数背景下 PPI 同比或回升 至-2.4%。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - In August, the price index was under marginal pressure, with both CPI and PPI year-on-year in the negative range. The year-on-year decline of CPI was 0.4%, and the month-on-month was flat. The year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.9%, and the month-on-month turned from decline to flat [1]. - The year-on-year pressure on CPI and flat month-on-month may be affected by the seasonal weakness of food prices and high base. In the future, food prices in September may continue to be under pressure due to high base, while service prices may continue to recover in the second half of the year [1]. - The year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed for the first time in six months. The month-on-month turn to flat was mainly affected by policy-driven supply-demand improvement and imported factors. In the future, the prices of production materials in September may continue to pick up, while the stabilization of living materials may depend on the repair of food PPI [1]. - The downward pressure on the economy may increase in the second half of the year. In August, the year-on-year growth rate of prices was lower than expected, and the manufacturing PMI continued to be below the boom-bust line, indicating growth pressure. Consumption and exports may face certain pressure in the second half of the year [1]. - The short-term bond market may be suppressed by sentiment, and the bond market is bullish in September. It is believed that the downward pressure on the economy may increase in the second half of the year, the capital side will continue to be loose, the central bank may restart Treasury bond purchases, and the self-operated allocation demand of banks will support the decline of bond market interest rates [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content CPI Situation - In August 2025, CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.4%, month-on-month was flat, both down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The year-on-year increase of core CPI continued to expand to 0.9% for the fourth consecutive month, reflecting the improvement trend of domestic demand [1]. - The year-on-year decline of CPI food prices has been negative for seven consecutive months. In August 2025, it decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 2.7 percentage points from the previous month. Food and tobacco had a drag of about -0.74 percentage points on CPI year-on-year. Non-food prices increased by 0.5% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months, mainly driven by industrial consumer goods and service items [1]. - Looking forward, food prices in September may continue to be under pressure due to high base. With relevant policies, service prices may continue to recover in the second half of the year [1]. PPI Situation - In August 2025, the year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.9%, the first narrowing since February this year, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the month-on-month turned from decline to flat, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, ending the continuous decline for eight months [1]. - From the sub-items, the year-on-year decline of production materials narrowed, up 1.1 percentage points from July to -3.2%, and the year-on-year decline of living materials slightly expanded, down 0.1 percentage points from July to -1.7% [1]. - The month-on-month turn to flat of PPI was mainly affected by policy-driven supply-demand improvement and imported factors. In the future, the prices of production materials in September may continue to pick up, while the stabilization of living materials may depend on the repair of food PPI [1]. Economic and Bond Market Situation - In August, the year-on-year growth rate of prices was lower than expected, and the manufacturing PMI continued to be below the boom-bust line, indicating growth pressure. Consumption and exports may face certain pressure in the second half of the year [1]. - The short-term bond market may be suppressed by sentiment, and the bond market is bullish in September. It is expected that the 10Y Treasury bond yield will be between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year, and will return to around 1.65% in the next six months [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the paradox of increasing money supply (M2) without corresponding inflation or asset price increases, raising questions about the flow of this new money and its implications for the economy [1][3]. Group 1: Money Supply and Inflation - M2 balance reached 330.29 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating an increase in the money supply [1]. - CPI rose slightly to 0.1%, while PPI fell to -3.6%, suggesting persistent low inflation despite the increase in money supply [1][3]. Group 2: Allocation of New Money - Approximately 30% of the new money flowed to the government through bond financing, used for debt repayment and infrastructure investments [4]. - About 60% of the new money went to enterprises, primarily for production expansion, leading to potential overproduction and price deflation [5]. Group 3: Export and Currency Dynamics - Trade surplus reached $586.7 billion in the first half of 2025, but foreign currency deposits hit a record high of $824.87 billion, indicating that much of the earnings from exports are not being converted back to RMB [7][8]. - Many export companies are retaining their foreign currency earnings overseas, investing in high-yield assets rather than bringing the funds back to China [10][12]. Group 4: Capital Market Strategy - The article suggests that attracting foreign and repatriated funds to the Hong Kong capital market is crucial for stabilizing the economy and enhancing wealth effects [11][13]. - The push for Hong Kong's capital market is seen as a strategy to create a favorable environment for investment, especially in light of anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and expectations of RMB appreciation [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the paradox of increasing money supply (M2) without corresponding inflation or asset price increases, raising questions about the flow of this new money and its implications for the economy [1][3]. Group 1: Money Supply and Inflation - M2 balance reached 330.29 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating an increase in the money supply [1]. - CPI rose slightly to 0.1%, while PPI fell to -3.6%, suggesting persistent deflationary pressures despite the increase in money supply [1][3]. Group 2: Allocation of New Money - Approximately 30% of the new money has flowed to the government through bond financing, used for debt servicing and infrastructure investments [4]. - About 60% of the new money has gone to enterprises, primarily for production expansion, leading to potential overproduction and price deflation [5]. Group 3: Export and Currency Dynamics - Trade surplus reached 586.7 billion USD in the first half of 2025, while foreign currency deposits hit a record high of 824.87 billion USD, indicating a significant increase in foreign currency holdings by export enterprises [7][8]. - Many export companies are retaining their foreign currency earnings overseas instead of converting them to RMB, which limits domestic liquidity and complicates the inflation situation [10][12]. Group 4: Capital Market Strategies - The article suggests that enhancing the capital market, particularly in Hong Kong, is crucial for attracting foreign and repatriated funds, with measures like allowing mainland investors to buy Hong Kong stocks directly [11]. - The anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and expectations of RMB appreciation may further incentivize capital to flow into Hong Kong's markets [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In July 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) was flat year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 1.6%, non - food prices increased by 0.3%, consumer goods prices decreased by 0.4%, and service prices increased by 0.5%. From January to July, the average CPI decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year [5][51]. - In July 2025, the producer price index for industrial products (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, and the purchasing price index for industrial producers decreased by 4.5%. From January to July, the average PPI decreased by 2.9% compared with the same period last year, and the purchasing price index for industrial producers decreased by 3.2% [5][58]. - As of the end of July 2025, China's gold reserves were 73.96 million ounces, an increase of 60,000 ounces from the end of June 2025, increasing for 9 consecutive months. It is expected that the central bank will continue to increase its gold holdings [6]. - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves were $3.2922 trillion, a decrease of $25.2 billion or 0.76% from the end of June, remaining above $3.2 trillion for 20 consecutive months [6]. - In the first 7 months of this year, China's goods trade showed an upward trend. The total value of imports and exports was 25.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, and the growth rate was 0.6 percentage points faster than that in the first half of the year [6]. - In July 2025, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing industry's prosperity level declined seasonally and generally remained in a downward trend [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs National Economic Accounting - GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rates from Q1 2023 to Q2 2025 are presented. Different industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, industry, construction, and services have their respective growth rate trends [8]. - The contribution rates of different industries to GDP growth from Q1 2023 to Q2 2025 are shown, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, industry, construction, and various service - related industries [13]. Industry Industrial Growth Rate - The year - on - year growth rates of added value of major industries from May to June in the past two years are provided, including coal mining and washing, oil and gas extraction, and manufacturing industries [22]. Major Industrial Output - The output data of major industrial products from June 2024 to June 2025 are listed, including energy products, industrial raw materials, and finished products [24]. Industry Electricity Consumption - The year - on - year growth rates of electricity consumption of major industries from March 2024 to May 2025 are given, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mining, and manufacturing [33]. Industrial Enterprise Profits - From January to June 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises was 3.4365 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The main industry profit situations vary, with some industries showing growth and others decline [36]. - From January to June 2025, the mining industry's profit was 429.41 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 30.3%; the manufacturing industry's profit was 2.59006 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry's profit was 417.04 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [41]. Industrial Enterprise Inventory - As of the end of May 2025, the finished product inventory of large - scale industrial enterprises was 6.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The overall inventory is in a stage from passive replenishment to passive destocking [46]. Price Index CPI - In July 2025, the CPI was flat year - on - year. Food prices decreased, while non - food prices increased. The average CPI from January to July decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year [51]. - The year - on - year and month - on - month data of CPI sub - items from July 2024 to July 2025 are presented, including food, clothing, housing, and other categories [52]. PPI - In July 2025, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, and the purchasing price index for industrial producers decreased by 4.5%. The average PPI from January to July decreased by 2.9% compared with the same period last year [58]. - The year - on - year data of PPI for major industries from July 2024 to July 2025 are provided, including production materials, living materials, and various mining and manufacturing industries [58][61]. - The year - on - year data of industrial producer purchasing prices from July 2024 to July 2025 are given, including fuel power, black metal materials, and other categories [62]. Main City Newly - Built Residential Prices - The year - on - year and month - on - month data of the price index of newly - built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities from June 2015 to June 2025 are shown, including data for first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities [63][64][66].

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China has shown a decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% in May, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6% [1][4] - There is a discrepancy between the CPI statistics and individual consumer perceptions of price changes, which can be attributed to differences in consumption patterns, frequency of purchases, and the comparison of price points [2][3] Group 1: CPI and Consumer Perception - CPI is a comprehensive statistical indicator that reflects the price level changes of various consumer goods and services, covering eight major categories and 268 basic classifications [1] - Individual consumer experiences of price changes can vary significantly based on their consumption structure and regional differences, leading to a "temperature difference" in perception [2] - Consumers are generally more sensitive to price changes in frequently purchased essential goods, while changes in prices of infrequently purchased items may go unnoticed [2] Group 2: Impacts of Price Changes - A moderate decline in prices can lower consumer costs and enhance purchasing power, allowing consumers to allocate more funds to other areas such as cultural and tourism consumption [3][4] - However, sustained price declines can lead to negative economic consequences, including reduced investment, delayed consumer spending, and potential increases in unemployment, creating a feedback loop that further suppresses demand and prices [4] - Maintaining a moderate increase in prices is beneficial for economic stability, and recent policies aimed at boosting effective demand have shown positive results, with retail sales growing by 6.4% year-on-year in May, the highest monthly growth rate in 2024 [4][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that despite an increase in the money supply (M2), there is no corresponding rise in consumer prices (CPI) or asset prices, leading to questions about the flow of this new money [1][3] - M2 increased by 8.3% year-on-year, reaching 330.29 trillion yuan, while CPI rose slightly to 0.1% and PPI fell to -3.6% [1][3] - The majority of the new money is not reaching consumers directly, as only 7% of the M2 increase is reflected in household loans, indicating a disconnect between money supply and consumer spending [4][5] Group 2 - Approximately 30% of the new money is directed towards government financing through bonds, which is used for debt servicing and infrastructure investments [4] - About 60% of the new money flows to enterprises, primarily for production expansion, but this leads to overproduction and price deflation, preventing price increases [5] - The phenomenon of "capital outflow" occurs as export companies do not convert their foreign currency earnings back to RMB, instead investing abroad, which further complicates domestic monetary conditions [9][11] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the need for these funds to return to the domestic market, suggesting that enhancing the capital market, particularly in Hong Kong, could attract these funds back [10][12] - The Hong Kong market is positioned as a key area for attracting both foreign investment and repatriated funds, especially with the anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and expectations of RMB appreciation [10][12] - The article suggests that investors should consider allocating funds to quality assets in the Hong Kong market as a long-term investment strategy [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan has maintained its policy interest rate at 0.5% for four consecutive meetings since the increase in January, while considering further rate hikes based on economic and price improvements [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Bank of Japan decided to keep the uncollateralized overnight call rate target at 0.5% during the monetary policy meeting on July 31, with unanimous approval from all nine policy board members [1] - The market is closely watching for clues regarding the timing of the next interest rate hike, as the Bank of Japan continues to assess the impact of U.S. tariff policies on Japan's economy [1][2] Group 2: Economic and Price Outlook - The outlook report indicates an upward revision of the consumer price index (CPI) growth forecast for fiscal year 2025, from 2.2% to 2.7%, reflecting recent price increases in Japan [1] - The CPI forecasts for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 have been slightly adjusted to 1.8% and 2.0%, respectively, from previous estimates of 1.7% and 1.9% [2] - The forecast for Japan's real GDP growth rate for fiscal year 2025 has been revised from 0.5% to 0.6%, while the projections for 2026 and 2027 remain unchanged at 0.7% and 1.0% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that despite an increase in the money supply (M2) and a slight recovery in CPI, there is no corresponding rise in commodity and asset prices, leading to questions about where the excess money is going [1][2] - M2 increased by 8.3% year-on-year, reaching 330.29 trillion yuan, while CPI rose to 0.1% and PPI fell to -3.6%, indicating a disconnect between money supply and price levels [1][2] - The majority of the new money supply is not reaching households, as only 1.17 trillion yuan in new loans were taken by residents, representing about 7% of the M2 increase [2] Group 2 - Approximately 30% of the new money is directed to the government through bond financing, with some funds used for debt refinancing and infrastructure investments [2] - About 60% of the new money flows to enterprises, which primarily use it to expand production [2][3] - The current phase of production expansion is leading to overcapacity, causing price reductions and hindering price increases in both consumer goods and assets [3] Group 3 - The influx of new money is primarily directed towards production, resulting in supply exceeding demand, which contributes to deflationary pressures [3][4] - Exporting companies are retaining foreign currency earnings overseas instead of converting them to RMB, leading to a significant increase in foreign currency deposits in domestic banks [4] - The trade surplus reached 586.7 billion USD in the first half of the year, while foreign currency deposits increased by 146.3 billion USD, indicating that a substantial amount of foreign currency is not returning to the domestic economy [4] Group 4 - The challenge is to encourage the repatriation of these foreign funds, with past methods like mandatory currency conversion being less viable due to the large trade volume [4] - The strategy now focuses on enhancing the capital market, particularly the Hong Kong stock market, to attract these funds back [4][5] - The rise of digital assets and stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong aims to create a more attractive environment for both foreign and repatriated funds [4] Group 5 - Anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and expectations of RMB appreciation may drive funds away from USD assets towards Hong Kong stocks, particularly quality enterprises [5] - For investors, there is a long-term opportunity in Hong Kong stocks, and it is advised to align asset allocation with market trends rather than against them [5]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China maintains the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for over 5 years, indicating a stable monetary policy amid economic recovery efforts [1] Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The monetary policy is characterized by moderate easing, effectively supporting macroeconomic stability [1] - M2 growth reached 330.29 trillion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year, marking the highest level since March 2024 [2] - M1 increased by 4.6% year-on-year, the highest since May 2025, indicating a recovery in demand for current deposits [2] - The gap between M2 and M1 growth rates narrowed to 3.7%, the lowest since 2022, suggesting a rebound in investment and consumption [2] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains low at 0.1%, and Producer Price Index (PPI) at -3.6%, reflecting cautious expectations among economic entities [2] Social Financing and Government Bonds - Social financing stock grew by 8.9% year-on-year, indicating an improving financing environment for the real economy [3] - Government bonds are the main contributor to the increase in social financing, with a 21.3% year-on-year growth [3] - In June, social financing increased by 900.8 billion yuan year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [3] Loan Structure and Consumer Behavior - Residents show caution in short-term loans, reflecting weak consumer confidence, while long-term loans are supported by policy and real estate market recovery [5] - Corporate loans increased, indicating a willingness to invest in production expansion and technological upgrades [5] - The stability of LPR rates suggests no significant changes in influencing factors, with banks facing high interest margin pressures [5] Future Monetary Policy Directions - The monetary policy should remain moderately loose, with potential for further rate cuts depending on inflation trends [6] - Structural monetary policy tools will be optimized to support key sectors like small enterprises and green development [6] - Coordination between monetary and fiscal policies is essential to create a synergistic effect [7] - Enhanced management of monetary policy expectations and risk monitoring in key areas like real estate and local government debt is necessary [7]