氧化铝 观点总结 氧化铝价格核心矛盾仍存在于供应端，2025年四季度由于现货价格下跌较慢以及年末为下年长单签订时间， 氧化铝企业迟迟未能减产，期货盘面大幅跌至成本线以下，展望2026年，在国内外氧化铝产能依然有较多计 划新投增量，供过于求的格局或将延续，成本线或成2026年氧化铝价格博弈线，考虑到：1、明年铝土矿还有 下行空间；2、新增产能集中于南方成本较低区域，行业平均成本或将下移，我们认为氧化铝价格重心较今年 将有所下移。 策略推荐 南华期货2026年铝产业链年度展望 ——冰火两重天 揭婷（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022453） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月31日 第一章 核心观点 推荐关注氧化铝企业检修与投产相关消息，基本面未变情况下以空头思路为主 风险提示 矿端突发事件、氧化铝供应端干扰 电解铝 2025年初，市场对几内亚铝土矿供应恢复和国内氧化铝新产能投放已有预期，但实际落地速度超预期。广 西、山西、贵州等地多个大型项目在一季度末至二季度初密集投产，叠加部分企业春节后复产提速，导致供 应快速攀升。与此同时，电解铝运行产能虽维持高位，但受制于4500万吨政策上限，对 ...

最近，美债市场发生了一些大的波动。中国已经连续几个月减持美债，这一举动对美国来说是个不小的打击。根据2024年10月美国财政部的数据显示，中国 减持了119亿美元美债，使得持有的美债总额降至7601亿美元，达到了自2009年以来的最低点。作为全球第二大经济体，中国的这一行为，实际上是在提醒 外界美元信用的风险。回顾过去几年，中国的美债持有量从最高时的约1.3万亿美元一路下降，现在已经降到不到8000亿美元。这背后的原因有几个。一方 面，美国的债务已经超过38万亿美元，利息支出占据了财政预算的大部分，债务滚动的做法越发频繁。另一方面，美国频繁使用金融手段作为武器，通过冻 结他国资产和实施制裁，导致其他国家开始担心继续持有美债的风险。加拿大也跟随其后，在10月减持了567亿美元美债，用这些资金来应对美国的关税威 胁。这一连串的动作，暴露了盟友间的信用危机，也让其他国家开始怀疑美债的安全性。 在美债抛售的背后，信用危机越来越显现。日本原本是美国美债的最大海外持有国，理应帮助美国维稳。然而，2024年10月，日本也减持了206亿美元美 债，使得其持仓量降至1.1万亿美元。英国则减持了184亿美元，将持仓降至7460亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing significant inflows of capital, with over 47 billion yuan invested in "Hong Kong" ETFs since September, particularly in sectors like internet, innovative pharmaceuticals, technology, and gold [1][3]. Fund Inflows - As of September 29, 140 "Hong Kong" ETFs have collectively attracted 471.94 billion yuan in investments, with 13 ETFs receiving over 1 billion yuan each [3][4]. - The Fu Guo Zhong Zheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF reached a record size of 913.17 million units by September 29, increasing by 118.64 million units since the end of August, and has attracted 10.067 billion yuan in investments during September [3][4]. - Other notable ETFs include: - ICBC Credit Suisse National Index Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF: 253.77 million units, 4.495 billion yuan inflow - Yongying Zhong Zheng Hu Shen Hong Kong Gold Industry ETF: 59 million units, 3.749 billion yuan inflow - E Fund Hong Kong Stock Investment Theme ETF: 147.27 million units, 3.741 billion yuan inflow - Huatai-PineBridge National Index Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Pharmaceuticals ETF: 113.71 million units, 2.621 billion yuan inflow [4][5]. Market Outlook - Industry experts express confidence in the Hong Kong stock market's future performance, citing factors such as profit recovery and improved liquidity as key drivers [6]. - The current profit cycle for Hong Kong stocks is beginning to recover from its lowest point, with sectors like healthcare and information technology expected to provide solid support for the market [6]. - The potential for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts is anticipated to boost capital flows into emerging markets, with foreign capital increasingly focusing on investment opportunities in Chinese assets [6]. - There is a positive outlook for leading internet companies in Hong Kong, as well as for innovative pharmaceuticals and AI research firms, which are seen as globally competitive [6].

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a steady increase last week, with London spot gold closing at $3,399 per ounce (up 1.1% week-on-week) and domestic AU9999 gold at 783 yuan per gram (up 2.1% week-on-week) [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the ninth consecutive month, reaching 7,396 million ounces (approximately 2,300.41 tons) by the end of July, with a month-on-month increase of 6,000 ounces (approximately 1.86 tons) [1] - The decline in the international credibility of the US dollar, exacerbated by the "exceptionalism" narrative and the US debt credit crisis, has led to a global trend of central banks increasing gold holdings while reducing dollar assets [1] Group 2 - The impact of tariffs on the US economy is becoming evident, prompting the Federal Reserve to consider resuming interest rate cuts; additionally, August will see a peak in US debt issuance, with high interest costs further burdening the US government [2] - The upcoming week will focus on key signals for gold ETFs, including the US-Russia summit on August 15, the results of the 232 investigation into US semiconductor and pharmaceutical tariffs, and US inflation data for July [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in gold prices is driven by multiple factors, including weak U.S. employment data, internal policy disagreements within the Federal Reserve, and heightened geopolitical and trade risks [1][2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of August 5, spot gold reached $3,380.77 per ounce, continuing an upward trend over several trading days [1]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased significantly, with London gold and COMEX gold showing annual gains of 28.14% and 29.34%, respectively [1]. - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to a cooling market, with volatility and turnover rates decreasing since April [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July showed only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below the expected 110,000, indicating a cooling labor market [2]. - The Federal Reserve's internal policy disagreements have intensified, with some members advocating for immediate rate cuts, breaking a long-standing tradition of unanimous votes [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Trade Risks - The Trump administration's recent imposition of tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on multiple countries has increased global trade uncertainty [2]. - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have further heightened market demand for safe-haven assets like gold [2]. Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - Citigroup has revised its gold price forecast, raising the target price for the next three months from $3,300 to $3,500 per ounce, reflecting a shift in outlook due to worsening economic conditions and inflation concerns [2]. - The World Gold Council reported a 3% year-on-year increase in global gold demand in Q2 2025, driven by strong investment demand, despite a slowdown in central bank purchases [8]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - Central bank gold purchases continue to provide a support base for gold prices, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months [8]. - The People's Bank of China reported a gold reserve of 73.9 million ounces (approximately 2,298.55 tons) as of June 2025, marking a continuous increase over the past eight months [8].

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold stock ETFs on August 4 indicates a strong market response to recent economic data and shifts in investor sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2][4]. Group 1: Gold Stock ETF Performance - On August 4, several gold stock ETFs, including those from Guotai, ICBC Credit Suisse, and Huaxia, saw significant gains, with Guotai Gold Stock ETF leading at 5.04% [2]. - Year-to-date performance shows that multiple gold stock ETFs have increased over 30%, with Guotai Gold Stock ETF up 38.42% and ICBC Credit Suisse Gold Stock ETF up 39.16% [2]. Group 2: International Gold Prices - On August 1, the London gold spot price surpassed $3360 per ounce, marking a daily increase of 2.22%, while COMEX gold also broke the $3400 per ounce mark [3][4]. - As of August 4, the London gold spot price was reported at $3358.32 per ounce, a slight decrease of 0.13%, while COMEX gold was at $3411.2 per ounce, reflecting a 0.34% increase [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the upward potential for gold remains significant, driven by factors such as weakening dollar, inflation expectations, and ongoing geopolitical tensions [4][5]. - The anticipated decline in the dollar's value and the potential for increased gold accumulation by central banks are expected to support long-term gold price increases [5][6].

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Gold prices have declined due to easing tensions in the Middle East, with London spot gold closing at $3,337 per ounce (down 1.9% week-on-week) and domestic AU9999 gold at 772 yuan per gram (down 0.9% week-on-week) [1] - The market is closely monitoring the risk of renewed U.S. tariffs, which could boost safe-haven demand for gold if significantly increased [1] - The U.S. "Great Beautiful" Act has been signed, which will increase federal debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, maintaining a loose fiscal stance [1] Group 2: U.S. Employment Data and Economic Outlook - U.S. unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and previous 4.2%, with non-farm payrolls adding 147,000 jobs, exceeding the forecast of 106,000 [2] - Despite short-term resilience in employment data, the job creation structure is unhealthy, heavily reliant on government and education sectors, while small business hiring remains low [2] - The outlook suggests potential for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, supported by expectations of weakening employment and rising unemployment [2] Group 3: Future Signals for Gold ETFs - Key signals to watch for gold ETFs include trade negotiations and tariff developments, as well as the People's Bank of China's gold purchasing activities [2]

Group 1 - The long-term drivers for gold prices remain supportive, but there is hesitation for upward movement due to high price levels [1] - The recent decline of the US dollar has contributed to a rebound in gold prices, with expectations for further upward movement if US employment data indicates a weaker economy [2] - The ongoing credit crisis in US Treasury bonds and the trend towards de-dollarization support a long-term bullish outlook for gold [2][3] Group 2 - Central bank purchases of gold have significantly increased, with over 1,000 tons bought in the past three years, indicating a shift in market dynamics where gold is viewed as a store of value and diversification tool [3] - The weak US dollar and pressure from the current US administration for interest rate cuts are interrelated factors supporting gold prices [3] - Market focus remains on upcoming US non-farm payroll data, which could influence Federal Reserve monetary policy and subsequently affect gold prices [3]

Group 1 - The recent 20-year U.S. Treasury bond auction was disappointing, with a high bid rate of 5.047%, marking the second instance in history where the winning yield exceeded 5% and the largest tail risk in six months [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio fell from an average of 2.57 to 2.46, indicating reduced demand for U.S. debt amid high fiscal uncertainty and low policy credibility [1] - Concerns over the U.S. high debt levels and the potential expansion of the deficit due to the proposed "Beautiful America Act" are seen as fundamental reasons for the weak auction results and a new wave of selling U.S. dollar assets [1] Group 2 - As of the end of 2024, the total outstanding debt of the U.S. federal government reached $36.2 trillion, with foreign investors holding slightly over $9 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities [3] - The allocation of U.S. debt to foreign investors, including central banks, has dropped to the lowest level since 2019, at only 58.88% during the latest 30-year bond auction, continuing a trend of decline since October of the previous year [3] - Japan and the UK, both facing turmoil in their bond markets, are the top two foreign holders of U.S. debt, with Japan increasing its holdings by $4.9 billion in March 2025, while China reduced its holdings by $18.9 billion, falling to the third-largest holder [3] Group 3 - China has been gradually selling off U.S. Treasury bonds, which is viewed as a warning to the U.S., and has also been increasing its gold reserves, reaching 7.377 million ounces by the end of April 2025 [6] - The increase in gold reserves reflects China's trend towards diversifying its foreign exchange reserves, while its significant U.S. debt holdings are a result of decades of trade surpluses with the U.S. [6] - Japan's Prime Minister expressed a strong desire for the U.S. to reassess various tariff measures, particularly on automobiles, which are crucial for Japan's economy [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced heightened uncertainty last week, primarily due to concerns over tariffs and the U.S. debt crisis, leading to a risk-off sentiment that boosted precious metal prices while industrial metal prices showed mixed performance [1][4][20]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Last week, COMEX gold rose by 4.75%, and silver increased by 3.73%, while SHFE gold and silver saw gains of 3.76% and 2%, respectively [2]. - The overall uncertainty in overseas markets, particularly related to the U.S. debt crisis and tariff threats from Trump, led to a rebound in precious metal prices [4][20]. - The upward trend for gold remains intact in the medium to long term, supported by ongoing uncertainties and the credit logic of the U.S. dollar [50]. Group 2: Copper Market Dynamics - COMEX copper prices showed a strong upward trend, increasing by 5.96%, while SHFE copper experienced a slight decline of 0.45% [2]. - Concerns over a potential 25% tariff on copper led to significant price increases, widening the price gap between regions [3][5]. - The copper market lacked significant drivers, with prices mostly oscillating within a narrow range, reflecting cautious market sentiment [5][6]. Group 3: Inventory and Positioning - COMEX gold inventory decreased by approximately 130,000 ounces, while COMEX silver inventory fell by about 547,000 ounces [35]. - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 3.7 tons to 922 tons, and SLV silver ETF holdings rose by 303 tons to 14,218 tons, indicating a shift in market positioning [40]. - The non-commercial long positions in COMEX gold decreased slightly, while short positions also saw a reduction, suggesting a balanced market sentiment [40].