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财政科学研究院院长杨志勇:中国财政政策仍有较大发力空间
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a more proactive fiscal policy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, enhancing macroeconomic regulation to support stable economic growth [2][4][5]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Characteristics - The fiscal macro-control during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is characterized by stronger efforts, a richer toolkit, more precise actions, and greater flexibility in timing [5]. - The average annual growth rate during the "14th Five-Year Plan" has been 5.5%, contributing approximately 30% to global economic growth [4]. Group 2: Economic Cycle Management - The goal of macroeconomic regulation is to smooth out economic cycles, preventing significant fluctuations that could waste resources and impact social welfare [3]. - Cross-cycle regulation is increasingly important to find new growth drivers for medium- to long-term development [3]. Group 3: Coordination of Policies - Fiscal policy and monetary policy must work in tandem to enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic regulation [6]. - The issuance of 500 billion yuan in special government bonds is expected to leverage approximately 6 trillion yuan in credit [6]. Group 4: Fiscal Space and Debt Management - The fiscal deficit rate has increased from 2.7% to 4%, providing more room for fiscal policy [8]. - China's government debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to be 68.7% by the end of 2024, significantly lower than the G20 average of 118.2% and G7 average of 123.2% [8]. Group 5: Future Fiscal Policy Potential - There is considerable potential for further fiscal policy action, supported by a long-term positive economic trend and a large market [9]. - Ongoing reforms in fiscal management aim to enhance the efficiency of resource allocation and increase the fiscal capacity for macroeconomic regulation [9][10]. Group 6: International Coordination - Strengthening international macroeconomic policy coordination is essential to mitigate negative spillover effects from major economies [11]. - China's active participation in global economic governance and cooperation enhances the environment for domestic fiscal macro-control [11].
中国财政政策仍有较大发力空间
杨志勇(中国财政科学研究院院长、研究员) 9月12日,国新办举行新闻发布会,财政部部长蓝佛安介绍"十四五"时期财政改革发展成就。在发布会 上,蓝佛安部长专门就财政宏观调控作了介绍。 去年9月底,增量财政政策的出台极大地提升了市场信心,有力推动经济企稳回升。今年我国实施更加 积极的财政政策,增量财政政策和存量财政政策接续发力,更加积极的财政政策持续发力、更加给 力。"十四五"时期,财政宏观调控更加积极有为,是建立在对财政宏观调控规律的科学认识基础之上 的。财政政策与经济情景的适配性进一步增强。财政政策从积极到更加积极,战略上更加主动、战术上 更加精准,成为支撑经济平稳健康发展的重要力量。 宏观经济存在周期,熨平经济周期是宏观调控的重要目标。经济大起大落不仅会带来资源浪费,而且会 对社会民生造成影响。因此,防止经济大起大落,让经济平稳运行,成为现代国家宏观调控的直接目标 之一。宏观调控要针对经济周期所处的阶段,进行逆周期调节,熨平经济短期波动。传统工业社会的经 济周期相对较为容易确定,8~10年一个周期。随着科技进步,经济社会发展日趋复杂,经济周期不再 局限于既往8~10年的规律,这样,跨周期调节的重要性就与日俱 ...
国家财政实力持续增强(锐财经)
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-09-12 19:48
Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen significant enhancements in national fiscal strength and efficiency, highlighting the role of finance as a fundamental pillar of national governance [1] Fiscal Strength and Revenue Growth - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," national public budget revenue is expected to reach 106 trillion yuan, an increase of 17 trillion yuan or approximately 19% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [2] - Local fiscal strength has steadily grown, with 16 provinces projected to have fiscal revenue growth of over 20% compared to 2020, and 7 provinces exceeding 500 billion yuan, including 2 provinces surpassing 1 trillion yuan [2] Expenditure and Structural Optimization - National public budget expenditure is projected to exceed 136 trillion yuan over five years, an increase of 26 trillion yuan or 24% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [2] - The expenditure structure has been optimized, with more funds directed towards major development and livelihood projects [2] Macroeconomic Regulation - Fiscal macro-control has become more proactive, enhancing adaptability to economic conditions, and has played a crucial role in supporting stable and healthy economic development [3] - The government has implemented counter-cyclical adjustments to smooth short-term fluctuations, with a package of policies introduced in late 2022 to stabilize the economy [3] Social Welfare and Public Services - Total fiscal investment in the livelihood sector during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is nearly 100 trillion yuan, with over 70% of national public budget expenditure allocated to this area [4] - Key social expenditures include 20.5 trillion yuan for education, 19.6 trillion yuan for social security and employment, and 10.6 trillion yuan for health care [4] Education and Healthcare Initiatives - All compulsory education students in urban and rural areas are exempt from miscellaneous fees and receive free textbooks, benefiting approximately 20 million economically disadvantaged students [5] - The government has allocated over 800 billion yuan to support clinical specialty and regional healthcare capacity building [5] Demand Expansion Strategies - The Ministry of Finance has implemented a series of policies to expand domestic demand, including employment subsidies totaling 318.6 billion yuan, a 29% increase from the "13th Five-Year Plan" [7] - The government has invested approximately 420 billion yuan in consumer goods replacement programs, driving sales exceeding 2.9 trillion yuan [7] Infrastructure Investment - Over the past five years, 19.4 trillion yuan in local government special bonds have been allocated to support 150,000 construction projects, alongside 3.33 trillion yuan for central budget investments in infrastructure [8] - The Ministry of Finance aims to stimulate effective investment and consumption through innovative fiscal and tax policy tools, tapping into the vast potential of domestic demand [8]
杨志勇:中国财政政策仍有较大发力空间
杨志勇(中国财政科学研究院院长、研究员) "十四五"时期,财政政策与货币政策等协同作用,宏观调控效果显著。"十四五"已经过去的4年,年均 增速5.5%,为世界经济增长贡献率保持在30%左右。 9月12日,国新办举行新闻发布会,财政部部长蓝佛安介绍"十四五"时期财政改革发展成就。在发布会 上,蓝佛安部长专门就财政宏观调控作了介绍。 蓝佛安部长概括了"十四五"时期财政宏观调控的四个特点,即力度上更加给力、工具上更加丰富、发力 上更加精准、时机上更加灵活。这是对"十四五"财政宏观调控实践的总结。这个总结也显示了各方对财 政宏观调控的规律性认识逐步深化。财政宏观调控总体要稳,同时也要保持针对性灵活性。现实千变万 化,特别是外部因素不确定性增加,如果仅仅固守既有的调控做法,那么宏观调控就可能贻误良机。财 政政策就是要因时因势而动。当前全球科技革命和产业变革加速演进,对世界经济的影响不断加深,经 济运行态势都在发生变化,财政宏观调控也必须有相应的创新。 去年9月底,增量财政政策的出台极大地提升了市场信心,有力推动经济企稳回升。今年我国实施更加 积极的财政政策,增量财政政策和存量财政政策接续发力,更加积极的财政政策持续发力 ...
南财快评|杨志勇:中国财政政策仍有较大发力空间
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a more proactive fiscal policy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period to stabilize and promote economic growth, with a focus on enhancing the adaptability of fiscal policies to economic conditions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Characteristics - The fiscal macro-control during the "14th Five-Year Plan" has four key characteristics: increased strength, richer tools, more precise implementation, and greater flexibility in timing [3]. - The fiscal policy has shifted from being merely proactive to being more actively engaged, which is crucial for supporting stable and healthy economic development [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Cycle Management - The goal of macroeconomic regulation is to smooth out economic cycles, preventing significant fluctuations that could waste resources and impact social welfare [2]. - Cross-cycle regulation is increasingly important for finding new growth drivers for medium- to long-term development, especially in the context of China's evolving economic landscape [2]. Group 3: Coordination of Policies - Effective fiscal macro-control requires the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, which enhances the overall effectiveness of macroeconomic governance [4]. - The issuance of 500 billion yuan in special government bonds is an example of fiscal and monetary policy collaboration, expected to leverage approximately 6 trillion yuan in credit [4]. Group 4: Fiscal Space and Debt Management - China's fiscal policy still has significant room for maneuver, with the fiscal deficit rate increasing from 2.7% to 4% during the "14th Five-Year Plan," allowing for greater fiscal policy space [4]. - The government debt ratio in China is projected to be 68.7% by the end of 2024, significantly lower than the G20 average of 118.2% and the G7 average of 123.2%, indicating potential for further fiscal expansion [4]. Group 5: Long-term Economic Outlook - The long-term positive trend of the Chinese economy remains intact, supported by a vast market, which is expected to lead to increased fiscal revenues and enhanced fiscal strength [5]. - The ability to utilize fiscal policy effectively is improving, with a growing toolbox for macro-control, indicating a more forward-looking and targeted approach to fiscal policy [5][6].
财政部:今年专门发行5000亿元特别国债,预计可撬动信贷投放约6万亿元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-12 08:36
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has maintained an active fiscal policy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on both short-term economic stabilization and long-term development, with significant measures taken to enhance economic resilience and growth potential [2][5]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Characteristics - The fiscal policy has become more forceful, with the deficit rate increasing from 2.7% to 3.8%, and further to 4% this year. Additionally, a new quota of 19.4 trillion yuan for local government special bonds has been arranged, along with over 1 trillion yuan in tax reductions and deferrals [2]. - The tools for fiscal policy have become more diverse, utilizing government bonds, tax incentives, fiscal subsidies, and special funds to enhance the multiplier effect of policies. For instance, the innovative issuance of ultra-long special government bonds supports comprehensive demand expansion [2]. - The fiscal measures have become more precise, targeting economic bottlenecks and challenges, such as a one-time arrangement of 6 trillion yuan for debt replacement to alleviate local debt pressure, thereby freeing up resources for public welfare and development [3]. Group 2: Timing and Flexibility - The timing of policy implementation has become more flexible, with a focus on early and effective execution of measures. The government aims to ensure that policies are timely and impactful, adjusting fiscal macro-control strategies as needed based on changing circumstances [4]. - The government emphasizes the importance of coordinating fiscal policy with monetary policy to create a synergistic effect. For example, the issuance of 500 billion yuan in special government bonds is expected to leverage approximately 6 trillion yuan in credit investment [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The fiscal policy will continue to balance risk prevention and development promotion, with ample room for future fiscal actions. The long-term positive trend of the Chinese economy remains unchanged, providing a solid foundation for fiscal operations [5]. - The government plans to maintain policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, ensuring readiness for future challenges and contributing to high-quality economic and social development [5].
今年 国家财政安排1000亿元发放育儿补贴!
Yang Shi Xin Wen· 2025-09-12 08:25
发布会上,财政部部长蓝佛安介绍,国家财政账本里,分量最重、成色最足的始终是民生。 今天(12日)下午,国务院新闻办公室举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会。 财政部部长蓝佛安介绍,"十四五"时期,财政宏观调控更加积极有为,财政政策进一步增强与经济情景 的适配性,从积极到更加积极,战略上更加主动、战术上更加精准,成为支撑经济平稳健康发展的重要 力量。 "十四五"时期,全国一般公共预算安排教育支出20.5万亿元,社会保障和就业支出19.6万亿元,卫生健 康支出10.6万亿元,住房保障支出4万亿元,加上其他领域支出,财政民生投入近100万亿元。 今年,国家财政安排1000亿元发放育儿补贴、200亿元逐步推行免费学前教育,积极回应人民群众关 切。 财政部:"十四五"以来中央财政对地方转移支付近50万亿元 "十四五"时期,中央财政五年安排对地方转移支付近50万亿元,最大力度下沉财力,兜牢兜实"三保"底 线,地方财政总体运行平稳。 财政部:过去4年我国对世界经济增长贡献率保持在30%左右 一方面,强化逆周期调节,熨平短期波动。另一方面,协调推进跨周期调节,增强中长期发展动能。支 持扩大内需,助力新质生产力发 ...
重磅信号!刚刚,财政部发声!
券商中国· 2025-09-12 08:15
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is committed to maintaining a proactive fiscal policy to support high-quality economic development, with sufficient room for future fiscal policy adjustments [1][4]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - The Minister of Finance, Lan Fo'an, stated that the government's debt level is within a reasonable range, with a total debt of 92.6 trillion yuan and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 68.7% as of the end of last year [1]. - The government plans to issue 5 trillion yuan in special bonds to inject capital into large commercial banks, which is expected to leverage approximately 6 trillion yuan in credit [2]. - Over the past two years, 1.5 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds have been allocated to promote "two重" construction [3]. Group 2: Fiscal Strength and Expenditure - Since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," the fiscal deficit ratio has increased from 2.7% to 4%, with new local government special bond quotas totaling 19.4 trillion yuan and tax reductions exceeding 1 trillion yuan [4]. - The national fiscal strength has significantly increased during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with general public budget revenue expected to reach 106 trillion yuan, a 19% increase from the previous five-year period [6]. - Total public budget expenditure is projected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, marking a 24% increase compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [6]. Group 3: Social Welfare and Public Spending - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," nearly 100 trillion yuan has been allocated for social welfare, with significant investments in education (20.5 trillion yuan), social security (19.6 trillion yuan), healthcare (10.6 trillion yuan), and housing security (4 trillion yuan) [7]. - The government has also allocated 1 billion yuan for childcare subsidies and 200 million yuan for gradually implementing free preschool education [7]. Group 4: Economic Contribution and Stability - Over the past four years, China's contribution to global economic growth has remained around 30%, with an average economic growth rate of 5.5% [8]. - The central government has arranged nearly 50 trillion yuan in transfer payments to local governments during the "14th Five-Year Plan," ensuring stable local fiscal operations [9].
国新办举行新闻发布会,财政部部长蓝佛安重磅发声
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-12 08:12
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the significant achievements in fiscal reform and development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting increased public budget revenues and expenditures [1][2][3] - The national general public budget revenue is expected to reach 106 trillion yuan, an increase of 17 trillion yuan or approximately 19% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [1] - The national general public budget expenditure is projected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, an increase of 26 trillion yuan or 24% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, with more funds directed towards development and people's livelihood [1] Group 2 - The fiscal policy has become more proactive and adaptable, contributing to an average economic growth rate of 5.5% over the past four years, with a contribution rate to global economic growth of around 30% [2] - The fiscal deficit ratio has been raised from 2.7% to 4% this year, with new local government special bond quotas of 19.4 trillion yuan and tax reductions exceeding 1 trillion yuan [3] - Central government transfers to local governments are nearly 50 trillion yuan over the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, ensuring stable local fiscal operations [4] Group 3 - The issuance of 500 billion yuan in special government bonds this year is expected to leverage approximately 6 trillion yuan in credit [5] - The national budget allocates 1 trillion yuan for childcare subsidies and 200 billion yuan for gradually implementing free preschool education, reflecting a strong focus on people's livelihoods [6] - The fiscal department plans to maintain policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to support high-quality economic and social development [7] Group 4 - The Ministry of Finance has developed and is advancing an implementation plan for deepening the fiscal and tax system reform [8][9] - The government's total debt is projected to be 92.6 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 68.7%, indicating that the debt level is within a reasonable range [10] - As of the end of August, the average interest cost of debt replacement has decreased by over 2.5 percentage points, saving more than 450 billion yuan in interest expenses [11] - Over 60% of financing platforms are expected to exit by June 2025, indicating significant progress in the reform and transformation of financing platforms [12]
财政部部长蓝佛安最新发声,未来财政政策空间依然充足
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-12 07:55
记者 辛圆 财政部部长蓝佛安在周五国新办举行的"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会上介绍,"十四五"以来,财政政策力度更加给力。赤字率从2.7%提高 到3.8%,今年进一步提高到4%;安排新增地方政府专项债券额度19.4万亿元;新增减税降费及退税返税超10万亿元。 蓝佛安表示,财政政策统筹考虑防风险和促发展,始终留有后手,未来财政政策发力空间依然充足。 他进一步指出,一是我国经济长期向好的趋势没有变,这决定了财政运行的基本盘始终是坚实稳固的。二是这些年我们积累了越来越多的宏观调控经验,政 策工具不断丰富,跨周期调节能力大大增强。三是随着重点领域风险防范制度机制进一步健全,以及存量风险逐步消化,财政应对未来挑战更有底气、更加 从容。 8月12日,财政部等多部门发布了《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》和《服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策实施方案》,这是中央财政首次对个人消费贷 款进行贴息,两项贴息政策贴息比例为1个百分点,降低相关居民消费和服务业经营主体的信贷成本,从而激发消费潜力稳经济。 报告在部署接下来重点工作时提到,要全力支持稳就业稳外贸;要加快培育壮大发展新动能;进一步保障和改善民生;持续用力防范化 ...