注：黄金价格逼近4000美元/盎司 很多人把金价飙升，归因于美国通胀重新抬头。但如果仔细看数据，这个解释并不成立。美国的10年期通胀预期（即TIPS盈亏平衡率）自今年6月以来反而 略有下降，从2.4%降到约2.2%。 真正下降的，是 实际利率 。10年期TIPS收益率从2.2%掉到1.8%，投资者拿着美元债的"真实报酬"，被通胀侵蚀了一 截。按照历史经验，黄金和实际利率之间存在显著负相关： 当实际利率下降时，黄金上涨 。简单来说，当政府债券的利息追不上通胀时，黄金就成了更具 吸引力的"无息资产"。这条逻辑虽然古老，却依然好用【1】。 最近几个月，黄金的表现让人目瞪口呆。价格一度逼近 每盎司4000美元 ，创下有史以来的新高。如果算上过去一年的涨幅，黄金的回报超过了50%。 在过去半个世纪的历史里，只有上世纪七十年代和2008年金融危机时出现过类似的涨势。问题是，这一次并没有战争、也没有通胀失控，股市照样创新 高，经济也没有衰退。那为什么全世界的人，突然又开始抢金条了？ 很多人把黄金称为"避险资产"，但这个词其实挺有意思。所谓"避险"，意味着市场上有可以躲的地方。而当连货币本身都成了风险的一部分时，避险就变 成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising interest in gold as a reserve asset among central banks globally, driven by increasing distrust in the US dollar and the evolving international monetary order [2][6][8]. Group 1: Historical Context - The article outlines the historical evolution of the monetary system, starting from the gold standard established in 1816, transitioning to the Bretton Woods system in 1944, and finally to the dollar standard post-1971 after the Nixon shock [5][6]. - It highlights the unprecedented international cooperation achieved during the Plaza Accord in 1985, where countries recognized the irreplaceable value of the dollar [5]. Group 2: Current Trends in Gold Holdings - Central banks' gold holdings have surged back to levels not seen since the Bretton Woods era, reaching approximately 37,000 tons, with gold now becoming the second-largest reserve asset after the dollar [6]. - Countries like Poland and Indonesia are increasing their gold reserves, with Poland's central bank aiming for gold to constitute 30% of its foreign exchange reserves by 2025 [6]. Group 3: Distrust in the Dollar - There is a growing sentiment of distrust towards the US dollar, even among US citizens, with criticisms aimed at the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policies, which are perceived as leading to inflation and financial instability [7]. - The article notes that the lack of a viable alternative to the dollar is driving investors towards gold, which is seen as a "currency G-zero" in the current financial landscape [8]. Group 4: Future Implications - The article suggests that the current trends indicate a significant transformation in the global monetary order, with gold's rising prominence being just the beginning of this change [8]. - Notable investors predict that substantial financial, economic, and political upheavals are likely to occur in the coming years, further influencing the dynamics of currency and reserve asset preferences [8].

Group 1 - The article discusses the historical significance of the "Buttonwood Agreement" signed in 1792, which laid the foundation for the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and marked the transition from chaotic street trading to a structured financial market [1][4][6] - The agreement was a response to market manipulation and instability, particularly following the financial crisis caused by William Duer's failed attempt to monopolize bank stocks, which led to widespread bankruptcies [4][6] - The NYSE evolved from informal trading among brokers to a formal organization, establishing rules and a membership system that enhanced trading efficiency and credibility [6][8] Group 2 - The establishment of the New York Stock and Exchange Board in 1817 marked a significant step towards institutionalization and regulation of the trading environment, coinciding with the rise of New York as a financial center [9][10] - The NYSE faced challenges such as market manipulation and fraud, exemplified by the actions of Jay Gould and Jim Fisk in the late 1860s, which ultimately led to regulatory reforms [9][10] - The introduction of self-regulatory measures, such as a blacklist for defaulters and IPO review mechanisms, contributed to the NYSE's development and the establishment of a more organized trading environment [10][11] Group 3 - The article highlights the impact of major financial crises, including the Great Depression and the 2008 financial crisis, which prompted significant regulatory reforms and the establishment of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) [13][19] - The evolution of technology in trading, from paper-based systems to electronic trading, has transformed the market landscape, particularly following the "paper crisis" of the 1960s [11][19] - The NYSE's history reflects a continuous cycle of market enthusiasm, panic, and recovery, driven by the pursuit of efficiency and trust among market participants [19]

Group 1: Historical Evolution of the International Monetary System - The international monetary system has evolved through three major phases since 1870: the Gold Standard, the Bretton Woods System, and the Jamaica System[1] - The Gold Standard operated on a government commitment to maintain currency value through gold reserves, while the Bretton Woods System was a quasi-gold standard based on the unique economic position of the United States[2] - The Jamaica System represents a loose and flexible choice under economic diversification, affirming the current state of a multi-currency system[3] Group 2: Monetary Discipline and Current Challenges - The transition from the Gold Standard to the Bretton Woods System and then to the Jamaica System reflects a gradual loosening of monetary discipline, allowing for more flexible monetary policies[4] - In the 21st century, major economies like Japan, the U.S., and the Eurozone have implemented aggressive quantitative easing near zero interest rates, undermining confidence in these reserve currencies[5] - Emerging economies are increasing their gold reserves, indicating a paradox where the freedom from gold constraints leads to a heightened desire for gold reserves[6] Group 3: Capital Flows and Regulatory Needs - International capital flows have grown significantly, revealing the weaknesses of existing monetary systems, with capital acting as a powerful force that can destabilize these systems[7] - The Jamaica System's characteristics of freedom and diversity allow international capital to attack weaker economic regions, necessitating capital control measures to prevent financial crises in emerging markets[8] Group 4: Future of the Monetary System - The future restructuring of the international monetary system will depend on shifts in global economic and trade centers, influenced by technological advancements and industrial competitiveness[9] - The current monetary system faces challenges from structural imbalances among major economies, which could lead to financial crises and increased protectionism, particularly from the U.S.[10]

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing decline in global interest rates and the measures taken by various countries, including China, to balance economic growth and debt risks through adjustments in reserve requirements and reverse repurchase rates [2] - There is a growing public anxiety regarding the devaluation of money, as prices of essential goods like vegetables and fruits continue to rise, leading to a situation where bank interest rates do not keep pace with inflation [3] - The historical context of monetary devaluation is referenced, highlighting economist Irving Fisher's insights from his 1914 work "The Money Illusion," which explains the dynamics of money value fluctuations [3] Group 2 - Fisher's contributions to economics, particularly in monetary theory, are emphasized, including the well-known equation MV=PT, which illustrates the relationship between money supply, velocity, price levels, and transaction volume [8][9] - The distinction between money and wealth is clarified, with wealth defined as tangible assets that provide utility, while money serves as a medium of exchange without intrinsic value [10][11] - The article outlines how the increase in money supply can lead to inflation, particularly during periods of economic expansion when demand outstrips supply [12][13] Group 3 - Common misconceptions about the causes of rising living costs are addressed, such as attributing high prices solely to merchant greed or the influx of imported goods, which Fisher argues can actually enhance market supply [16][17] - The potential negative consequences of these misconceptions on government policy and public decision-making are discussed, emphasizing the importance of accurate economic understanding [17] - The relevance of Fisher's theories in contemporary economic contexts is highlighted, suggesting that they provide valuable insights for navigating current economic challenges [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The book "The Ruble: A Political History (1769-1924)" fills a gap in the understanding of the ruble's historical significance and its political implications in Russia's development over a century and a half [1] Group 1: Historical Context of the Ruble - The first paper currency in Russia was issued in 1769, coinciding with military actions against the Ottoman Empire, and was designed to promote patriotism [2] - The issuance of the ruble sparked debates among Russian officials about the nature of currency and the responsibilities of the monarchy, reflecting the political and financial challenges of the time [3] - The book discusses the evolution of the ruble in relation to Russia's interactions with other nations, including Poland and the Ottoman Empire, and highlights the impact of various reforms on the currency's status [4][5] Group 2: Economic Reforms and Political Implications - The introduction of the gold standard under financial reformer Sergei Witte aimed to stabilize the ruble and attract foreign investment, but it also tied the currency's value closely to Russia's political stability [6] - The book illustrates how the ruble was used as a tool for both domestic reforms and imperial expansion, with significant implications for Russia's financial and political landscape [4][6] - The relationship between currency and political power is emphasized, particularly during periods of reform and conflict, showcasing the ruble's role in Russia's national identity and economic strategy [7][8] Group 3: Contemporary Relevance - The current geopolitical climate, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has renewed interest in the ruble's historical and present-day significance, particularly in the context of international sanctions and economic strategies [8] - The ruble's resilience and attempts at internationalization, such as settlements with Global South countries and the introduction of digital rubles, reflect ongoing efforts to adapt to modern financial challenges [8]

Group 1 - The essence of currency is based on commodities and transactions, with credit currencies like paper money requiring actual transaction support to maintain value [1] - The dominance of the US dollar as a global reserve currency is primarily due to its pricing of commodities like oil and the US's control over international currency exchange systems [1] - The historical context of the gold standard established by Isaac Newton links currency value closely to gold, which has evolved over time, leading to the current challenges faced by the dollar [3] Group 2 - The trend of de-dollarization is accelerating, with countries like Germany, France, and Poland repatriating gold, reflecting deep concerns about the dollar system [5] - Japan and other US allies are increasing investments in Chinese bonds, indicating a challenge to the dollar's global status [5] - The US's excessive money printing to manage debt has led to a decline in the dollar's purchasing power and its global currency status [7] Group 3 - A proposed bill in the US aims to restore the gold standard, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy to curb dollar inflation [7] - The discussion around de-dollarization has become a significant international economic issue, with countries openly seeking alternatives to the dollar [8] - The rising US debt and inflation are prompting a reevaluation of the dollar's global currency status, with some economies considering pegging their currencies to gold or decentralized digital currencies [13] Group 4 - Approximately 40 representative countries, including China, India, Japan, and Russia, are advancing the de-dollarization process through various means [15] - The application of blockchain technology is accelerating the de-dollarization process, influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments [15] - The former Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, suggests that replacing the dollar with a globally recognized digital currency could address significant issues faced by non-US decision-makers [15] Group 5 - Investment figures like Jim Rogers warn that the decline of the dollar is an inevitable historical process, while reports indicate that the Federal Reserve's actions threaten the dollar's reserve currency status [17]

Group 1 - The article discusses the perception of the Japanese yen as a weak currency compared to other developed countries' currencies like the British pound and the US dollar, despite Japan being a developed nation [1][3] - It highlights that the high nominal value of the yen does not equate to its strength, as currency exchange rates fluctuate and are influenced by historical factors [3][4] - The historical context reveals that the yen was once strong, backed by the gold standard in the late 19th century, but has since depreciated due to various economic challenges [4][6] Group 2 - The depreciation of the yen is attributed to inflation, particularly during and after World War II, when Japan faced severe economic hardships and resorted to printing money [7][9] - The article notes that post-war Japan experienced hyperinflation, leading to a drastic increase in prices, which necessitated the introduction of higher denomination banknotes [9][11] - It discusses the complexities and potential challenges of reducing the nominal value of the yen, including public resistance and accounting difficulties [15][16][18]

Core Viewpoint - The end of the silver standard in China in 1935 marked a significant moment in both Chinese and global history, reflecting the complexities of monetary reform and foreign influence on China's currency system [2][5][12]. Group 1: Historical Context - In the late 19th century, China was the last major country to use a silver standard, facing issues such as a chaotic currency system and the dominance of foreign currencies [5][12]. - The influx of foreign silver coins and the lack of a unified standard led to significant confusion in transactions, described as a "battle of wits" [6][7]. Group 2: Attempts at Reform - Various attempts were made to reform the silver currency system, including the introduction of the "Dragon Dollar" by Zhang Zhidong, which ultimately failed due to quality issues [8][9]. - The 1911 revolution and subsequent advocacy for a currency revolution aimed to replace silver with paper currency, aligning with global trends [9][10]. Group 3: International Influence - The international landscape, particularly post-World War I, saw a shift in power dynamics, with the U.S. emerging as a significant influence on China's monetary policy [13][14]. - Foreign banks issued their own currencies in China, complicating the local currency situation and undermining China's monetary sovereignty [12][13]. Group 4: The Decline of Silver - By the early 1930s, despite a theoretical surplus of silver, China faced a severe "money shortage," exacerbated by international pressures and domestic instability [14]. - The final abandonment of the silver standard in 1935 in favor of government-controlled currency marked the end of an era for China's monetary system [14].

Group 1 - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves by 70,000 ounces, marking six consecutive months of gold accumulation, with total reserves reaching 73.77 million ounces, an increase of nearly 1 million ounces over the past six months [3][5] - In the first quarter, global central banks purchased 244 tons of gold, aligning with the normal purchasing levels seen over the past three years, with annual purchases averaging around 1,000 tons [3][4] Group 2 - UBS predicts that central banks will buy approximately 1,000 tons of gold by 2025, driven by rising structural demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4][11] - The World Gold Council's survey indicates that 29% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest level since 2018 [4] Group 3 - The historical context of gold as a monetary standard under the gold standard system highlights its enduring value as a reserve asset, despite the shift to fiat currencies [5][8] - The current global market's uncertainties, including geopolitical conflicts and economic challenges, have made gold a competitive and reliable asset for central banks [8][9] Group 4 - Central banks are accumulating gold as a hedge against risks associated with the dollar system, reflecting a shift in the global monetary landscape towards diversification and reduced reliance on a single currency [11]