专题：2026年度投资策略|顶级基金公司、基金经理展望马年投资机会 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 专题：2026年度投资策略|顶级基金公司、基金经理展望马年投资机会 高盛、瑞银、摩根大通等多家机构预测2026年中国资产在盈利增长、创新加速及估值吸引力下具备持续 反弹基础。 高盛、瑞银、摩根大通等多家机构预测2026年中国资产在盈利增长、创新加速及估值吸引力下具备持续 反弹基础。 展望2026年，机构普遍认为，股票市场受AI超级周期推动仍具上行空间，而利率、汇率、信贷与大宗 商品走势将呈现更强分化特征。高盛预测，2026年全球股票的平均价格涨幅约为13%，若将股息计算在 内，则涨幅将接近15%，主要由企业盈利驱动而非估值扩张。 摩根资产管理《2026年全球市场展望》指出，2026年全球经济预计将呈现"先强后弱"的增长态势，全球 不同地区经济增长呈现更多的地域性分散，这种的分化态势或将进一步加剧，或为单一资产投资带来显 著挑战，并强调在这一经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global stock market has experienced a rare uptrend this year, with Chinese assets performing exceptionally well, driven by liquidity easing and growth expectations [2][12]. Group 1: Global Market Performance - Major stock indices across the Americas and Asia have all achieved positive returns this year, with the ChiNext Index up over 51% and the Sci-Tech 50 Index up 37.5%, ranking second and third globally [2]. - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index recorded gains of 28.89% and 24.85%, respectively [2]. - Goldman Sachs predicts a further 38% upside for the Chinese stock market by the end of 2027 [2]. Group 2: Precious Metals Surge - December saw gold prices surpass $4,500 per ounce, marking a historic high, with COMEX gold futures up over 65% for the year, making it the best-performing year since 1979 [2]. - Other precious metals also saw significant increases, with platinum up 141.57%, palladium futures up over 85%, and silver futures up more than 150%, the highest among major assets [2]. Group 3: Foreign Investment in Chinese Assets - Foreign investment in Chinese assets has surged, with a net increase of $10.1 billion in domestic stocks and funds in the first half of the year, and $18.8 billion in May and June alone [8]. - By December 20, 2025, global investment in Chinese asset ETFs had accumulated a net inflow of $83.1 billion, with the technology sector attracting $9.5 billion [8]. - Morgan Stanley reported that foreign long-term funds net bought approximately $10 billion in A-shares and H-shares by November, contrasting sharply with a $17 billion outflow in 2024 [12]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Chinese Market - Analysts expect a "slow bull" market to continue, with a projected 14% growth in corporate earnings in 2026 and a 6% growth in the MSCI China Index [14][15]. - The market is transitioning from a "hope phase" to a "growth phase," with structural opportunities emphasized [14]. - Goldman Sachs and UBS predict that corporate earnings will be the main driver of stock price increases, with a focus on improving profit margins and return on equity [15].

2025年即将落下帷幕，你持有的资产获得了多少投资收益？ 全球股市普涨，中国资产表现亮眼贵金属迎史诗级行情 今年以来，全球股市呈现罕见的普涨格局。21财经·南财快讯记者梳理发现，从美洲到亚洲，从发达市场到新兴市场，主要股指 全数实现正收益。中国资产今年的表现甚是亮眼：截至12月30日，创业板指年内累计涨超51%，科创50指数涨幅达37.5%，在全 球主要股指涨幅排名中分别位列第二、第三。恒生指数、恒生科技指数也分别录得28.89%、24.85%的涨幅。高盛预测，到2027 年底中国股市仍有38%的上涨空间。 值得注意的是，这场由流动性宽松和增长预期驱动的资产价格上涨，并不仅限于权益市场，贵金属领域更是上演了史诗级的行 情。 今年12月，金价一度突破每盎司4500美元的历史新高，COMEX黄金期货年内涨超65%，黄金正经历自1979年以来表现最好的一 年。 中国科技类ETF获外资流入最多多家外资机构看好明年中国股市 2025年年初，DeepSeek R1推理大模型横空出世，中国科技惊艳世界，引发了全球市场对中国资产的广泛重估。 黄金的强势表现也带动了其他贵金属上涨。今年以来，铂金涨幅高达141.57%，钯金期货 ...

Core Insights - The capital market in 2025 experienced structural fluctuations, with non-ferrous metals, TMT, and power equipment being market highlights, while dividend sectors and real estate faced pressure. As 2026 approaches, structural opportunities are emerging supported by policy stabilization, corporate profit recovery, and liquidity influx [4] Group 1: Global Liquidity Improvement - The global macro environment in 2026 is expected to release positive signals, with the U.S. fiscal and monetary policies likely to trend towards easing. The "Great Beautiful Act" could lead to a long-term tax cut, potentially increasing the federal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion over the next decade, and the debt ceiling may rise by $5 trillion (a 12% increase) [5] - A low-interest-rate environment is expected to ease global liquidity constraints, alleviating capital outflow pressures in emerging markets and creating a relatively stable external environment for A-shares [5] Group 2: Domestic Economic Recovery - Domestic policies are aligning with micro signals to create a warming effect. The Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2025 and the 2026 Two Sessions will emphasize "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency" [6] - Industrial enterprises are currently at the bottom of the inventory cycle, with a narrowing decline in PPI indicating an approaching replenishment cycle. The cumulative year-on-year growth of net profit excluding non-recurring gains for all A-shares in Q3 2025 was 3.2%, and asset turnover rates are stabilizing [6] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to drive price recovery, leading to a positive cycle in corporate profits. Institutional investors such as insurance funds and bank wealth management are anticipated to become significant sources of incremental funds in 2026, further solidifying market liquidity [6] Group 3: Key Investment Areas for 2026 - Focus on the AI supercycle, with continued prosperity in domestic and international computing power chains. Attention should be given to new technology iterations and inflation-related sectors, particularly the gaming industry and the gradual development of smart terminals and AI applications [7] - High-end manufacturing going overseas should be monitored, especially in sectors like energy storage-lithium batteries and AI-related high-demand segments. Sustainable growth potential exists in domestic and overseas markets for heavy trucks, passenger vehicles, and construction machinery [8] - Long-term attention should be given to the revaluation of strategic resources, including precious and industrial metals. Energy and lithium carbonate show signs of bottoming out, while the chemical sector's resource products and significantly rebounding blue-chip varieties are also worth investing in [8] - Continuous monitoring of breakthroughs in frontier technologies such as robotics, solid-state batteries, controlled nuclear fusion, aerospace, and quantum computing is recommended [9] - New consumption trends and innovative pharmaceuticals are areas of interest, with solid fundamentals in emotional, service, and technology consumption. The innovative drug sector remains a long-term trend, with improved cost-effectiveness following recent declines [9] Conclusion - The equity market outlook for 2026, while facing challenges, is supported by a "triple support" system of policy stabilization, profit recovery, and liquidity influx, which may solidify the foundation for structural market trends. Investors are encouraged to align with industry trends and core logic while capturing opportunities from a long-term perspective [10]

Core Viewpoint - The market is increasingly focused on investment opportunities for 2026 as the A-share market approaches the end of 2025, with sectors like metals, TMT, and power equipment performing well, while dividend stocks and real estate are under pressure [1] Group 1: Global Economic Environment - The global macroeconomic landscape is expected to show positive changes in 2026, with the U.S. likely to adopt more accommodative fiscal and monetary policies, potentially increasing the federal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion over the next decade [4] - The anticipated fiscal expansion in the U.S. may require a low-interest-rate environment, which could improve global liquidity and stabilize the external environment for the A-share market [4] Group 2: Domestic Economic Policies - The Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2025 has set a policy direction of "seeking progress while maintaining stability," indicating a focus on quality and efficiency improvements [5] - Industrial enterprises are at the bottom of the inventory cycle, with a narrowing decline in PPI suggesting an approaching recovery phase for corporate profits, as evidenced by a 3.2% year-on-year growth in net profit for all A-shares in Q3 2025 [5] Group 3: Investment Opportunities for 2026 - The A-share market is expected to remain structurally driven, with five key areas for investors to focus on: 1. AI Super Cycle: Continued growth in domestic and international computing power chains, with a focus on new technology iterations and the gaming industry [9] 2. High-end Manufacturing Overseas: Attention on sectors like energy storage and lithium batteries, as well as heavy-duty vehicles and engineering machinery that offer growth potential [11] 3. Strategic Resource Revaluation: Long-term focus on precious and industrial metals, with particular attention to energy and lithium carbonate showing signs of stabilization [11] 4. Frontier Technology Breakthroughs: Ongoing interest in industries such as robotics, solid-state batteries, and quantum computing [11] 5. New Consumption and Innovative Pharmaceuticals: Focus on sectors with solid fundamentals in consumer and technology spending, as well as innovative medical devices [11] Group 4: Market Liquidity - The degree of asset allocation migration towards equity markets is still in its early stages, with significant room for growth as indicators remain at historical lows [10] - Institutional investors, including insurance funds and bank wealth management products, are expected to become important sources of marginal capital in 2026, further enhancing market liquidity [10]

近日，地缘宏观专家Marko Papic做客主持人Eric Townsend的一档播客节目。 针对特朗普近期在社交媒体上对委内瑞拉祭出的"禁飞令"，Papic深入剖析了这位"谈判专家"的策略逻 辑。他认为，这并非战争的前奏，而是特朗普典型的"最大压力七步法"——通过看似鲁莽的威胁，逼迫 对手马杜罗在谈判桌上交出更优厚的底牌。 委内瑞拉拥有全球最大的石油储备，但这能否成为特朗普平抑通胀的救命稻草?Papic在访谈中泼了一盆 冷水。他指出，在沙特王储暗示不再为美国"免费打工"的背景下，美国急需新原油来源。然而，由于产 能损耗严重，所谓"入主委内瑞拉即可缓解油价"只是一个短期无法兑现的幻想。他预言，2026年能源市 场的真实压力，将迫使全球政策发生重大转向。 Papic在节目中认为，为了保卫中期选举，特朗普将不得不放弃财政刺激，转而全面压榨美联储。他认 为，一场被政治利益驱动的"货币放水"正在酝酿，而这种对美联储独立性的削弱，虽然对债市是挑战， 却可能为股市开启一段疯狂的"YOLO"时刻。 美联储新任主席的人选传闻不断，凯文·哈塞特成为众矢之的。Papic在访谈中为哈塞特正名，认为其并 非外界眼中的"特朗普傀儡"， ...

"AI超级周期启动，智能经济机会无限。" 正当我们讨论 AI浪潮时，一个被忽视的宏大背景正在展开：AI不仅是一个独立的技术赛道，它正站在一个高达10万亿的基础产业之上。这意味着，我们今 天所见的AI趋势，将是下一轮对现有工种和组织形态进行 "彻底改变"的巨大力量。 百度集团执行副总裁、百度智能云事业群总裁沈抖博士在江阴飞马水城带来了《智能，生成无限可能》的分享，从趋势、原理、场景、基建、变革五方面 带领我们透视智能经济的整个面貌，包括 深入浅出的技术解析与 丰富生动 落地实践分享。 此次分享是一份面向未来的生存指南，帮助创业者抓住这波以大模型为核心的技术浪潮，实现企业的高效、变革与增长。 本文仅为部分内容，打开混沌APP，观看完整版课程《智能，生成无限可能》。 AI 的价值会远超互联网 我们正在 AI超级周期的起点，智能经济带来的机会是无限的。 等 AI进一步发展的时候，不但会使得自身的规模变得更大，而且会把整个产业做得更大。所以，尽管今天AI可触达的市场虽然只有200 亿，但它实际上改 造的会是10万亿的市场。——从注册护士、软件开发师到销售、教师，今天的人工智能会彻底地改变每一个工种，包括为其赋能，或者帮 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's annual outlook report predicts that by 2026, global markets will be profoundly reshaped by three core forces: uneven monetary policy, a surge in AI adoption, and increasing multidimensional market and economic divergence [1] - Despite a complex macro environment, Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook on global equity markets, setting a target price of 7,500 points for the S&P 500 index by the end of 2026, with potential for it to exceed 8,000 points if the Federal Reserve eases policies due to improved inflation [1][3] Group 2: Monetary Policy - Morgan Stanley forecasts that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December this year and January next year, pausing thereafter while maintaining this "asymmetric bias" in the first half of 2026 [3] - This policy path is expected to create significant divergence among developed market central banks, with the Fed and the Bank of England anticipated to cut rates, while others like the Eurozone and Australia are expected to remain unchanged [3][5] Group 3: AI Supercycle and Economic Divergence - The report identifies 2026 as a pivotal year for AI adoption, driving a global capital expenditure boom, with investments expanding across various sectors including banking, healthcare, and logistics [4] - Morgan Stanley describes a "K-shaped economy," where corporate capital expenditure remains strong while household consumption shows significant divergence, indicating a split economic recovery [4] Group 4: Economic Growth Projections - Global GDP growth is projected at 2.5% for 2026, slightly down from 2.7% in 2025, with the U.S. GDP growth expected to hold at 2.0% and the Eurozone declining to 1.3% [4] - The report emphasizes that the global growth outlook remains resilient, supported by loose monetary and fiscal policies and reduced market concerns regarding U.S. policies [4] Group 5: Cross-Asset Strategy - Morgan Stanley has a clear stance on cross-asset allocation, recommending a bearish outlook on oil due to supply-demand imbalances, while maintaining a bullish view on gold, setting a target price of $5,000 per ounce by Q4 2026 [6][8] - The firm anticipates U.S. 10-year Treasury yields to experience a dip followed by a rise, with a mid-year target of 4.25% and an end-of-year target of 4.35% [6] Group 6: Currency Outlook - The firm maintains a bearish outlook on the U.S. dollar, expecting the Federal Reserve's asymmetric policy bias in the first half of 2026 to suppress dollar strength [8] - In emerging markets, Morgan Stanley is optimistic about high-yield currencies such as the Brazilian real, Mexican peso, and South African rand [8]

Group 1 - Gold prices surged, reaching a high of $4,173.31, closing at $4,163.78, with a 0.8% increase [1] - The U.S. stock market experienced a four-day rally, with the Dow Jones up 0.67%, S&P 500 up 0.69%, and Nasdaq up 0.82% [1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to a seven-month low of 216,000, down by 6,000 from the previous week, but continued claims rose to 1.96 million, the highest since November 2021 [1][3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated a further decline in overall consumer spending, although high-end spending remains resilient [3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December have risen to 85%, with JPMorgan changing its stance to predict a rate cut in December [5] - The U.S. extended the exemption period for certain tariffs on China until November 10, 2026, related to technology transfer and intellectual property issues [5] Group 3 - Several Wall Street institutions are optimistic about the U.S. stock market outlook, with Deutsche Bank predicting the S&P 500 could reach 8,000 by the end of 2026, indicating an 18% upside [7] - JPMorgan highlighted the resilience of the U.S. economy and the ongoing AI supercycle as strong fundamental support for the stock market [7] Group 4 - The White House was placed on lockdown following a shooting incident near its vicinity, with President Trump emphasizing that the assailant will face severe consequences [9] - Tensions in the Caribbean region remain high, with Trump indicating a potential dialogue with Venezuelan President Maduro amid concerns of U.S. military action [10] Group 5 - The EU reiterated its commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty and financial needs, proposing a plan to utilize frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine [12]

Core Viewpoint - The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book indicates a stagnating U.S. economy characterized by a weak job market and persistent inflationary pressures [2][12]. Economic Activity - Overall economic activity has shown little change in recent weeks, with most Federal Reserve districts reporting stability, while two districts noted slight declines and one reported slight growth [5]. - Consumer spending has further declined, primarily due to the government shutdown affecting consumer decision-making [3][6]. Employment Market - The job market remains weak, with a slight decrease in employment numbers reported, and about half of the districts indicating soft labor demand [7]. - Many employers are opting for hiring freezes and only replacing departing employees rather than outright layoffs, with some adjusting work hours instead of workforce size [7]. Inflation and Pricing - Tariffs continue to be a major concern, with many companies reporting tightened profit margins and increased financial pressure due to tariffs [7]. - Some businesses have noted price declines due to decreased demand or postponed tariffs, while there is a general expectation of ongoing cost pressures in the future [7]. Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have increased, with an 84.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut [9]. - The probability of cumulative rate cuts by January is 64.7%, with a 24.4% chance of a total cut of 50 basis points [10]. Market Outlook - Wall Street's optimism for the stock market is growing, with Goldman Sachs predicting a third consecutive rate cut in December, supported by easing inflation and a cooling labor market [12]. - Deutsche Bank strategists forecast the S&P 500 index could exceed 8000 points by the end of 2026, indicating an 18% upside potential driven by strong earnings and increasing stock buybacks [16].