期货有限公司 s Company I imited 政策预期升温与仓单集中注销,多晶硅波动加剧 12月1日，多晶硅明货价格快速回升，主力合约最高涨超-5%触及 50200元/吨，突破前期高点并再创阶段新高。近期多最猛价格走强主要受两方面因素驱动：一是随着 12月到宋，年末市场 对党给侧改革可能释放明确政策信号的预期升温；二是 11 月仓单集中注销后、交割仓单变动受到市场关注，广期所多品拒台单已快速降至 1330 手，市场担忧短期仓单注册进度偏慢，从而带动 近月合约出现显著拉涨。 基本面情况 从基本面来看，在光伏终端装机承压的背景下，多晶硅酸体延续弱势，供需呈现"双弱"格局。供给端，11月西南枯水期，水电成本上升导致当地多晶硅产能持续成产。SMM数据显示，11月多 晶高产量11.5万吨，环比-14.5％，同比·2.7％；1-11月多磊硅累计生产119万吨，同比-28.1％。随着枯水锅减产继续链接，12月多晶硅热应预计处于10-11万吨区间，阶段性供给压力有所缓和。 需求端受到新能源电价上网市场化双草的影响，光伏装机收益承压，虽加年末下游戏产进入淡季，需求进一步减弱。电池片和组织排产自10月起持续回落，硅片生产当 ...

期货有限公司 s Company I imited 12月1日，多晶硅明货价格快速回升，主力合约最高涨超-5%触及 50200元/吨，突破前期高点并再创阶段新高。近期多最猛价格走强主要受两方面因素驱动：一是随着 12月到宋，年末市场 对党给侧改革可能释放明确政策信号的预期升温；二是 11 月仓单集中注销后、交割仓单变动受到市场关注，广期所多品拒台单已快速降至 1330 手，市场担忧短期仓单注册进度偏慢，从而带动 近月合约出现显著拉涨。 基本面情况 从基本面来看，在光伏终端装机承压的背景下，多晶硅酸体延续弱势，供需呈现"双弱"格局。供给端，11月西南枯水期，水电成本上升导致当地多晶硅产能持续成产。SMM数据显示，11月多 晶高产量11.5万吨，环比-14.5％，同比·2.7％；1-11月多磊硅累计生产119万吨，同比-28.1％。随着枯水锅减产继续链接，12月多晶硅热应预计处于10-11万吨区间，阶段性供给压力有所缓和。 需求端受到新能源电价上网市场化双草的影响，光伏装机收益承压，虽加年末下游戏产进入淡季，需求进一步减弱。电池片和组织排产自10月起持续回落，硅片生产当前也出现明显下降，SMM 数据11月硅卡产量 ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials industry, emphasizing the potential for growth driven by fire safety demand following recent incidents [4][6]. Group 1: Cement Industry - Cement prices have shown fluctuations, with some regions experiencing price declines while others, particularly in the south, are seeing price increases due to environmental pressures [6]. - The average number of days for staggered production among cement companies in China increased by 15 days year-on-year to 177 days in 2025, indicating a tightening supply [6]. - Long-term demand for cement is expected to stabilize, with a focus on supply-side reforms aimed at capacity control and carbon emission restrictions [6]. - The report highlights significant growth potential in overseas markets, particularly in Africa and Central Asia, where demand is driven by population growth and infrastructure needs [6]. - Companies like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement are recommended for their high dividend yield and potential for overseas revenue growth [6]. Group 2: Consumer Building Materials - The demand for fireproof materials and equipment is anticipated to rise, particularly following fire safety inspections mandated by authorities [6]. - The report outlines the classification of building materials based on combustion performance, with a focus on non-combustible and fire-resistant materials [6]. - Companies in the fire safety sector, such as Qingniao Fire Protection, are expected to benefit from increased demand for equipment upgrades and stricter regulations [6]. - The report notes that the domestic household fire safety market is poised for rapid growth, supported by increasing awareness and regulatory developments [6].

专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"！机构称A股迎全球资本涌入的大牛市 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 11月28日，2025分析师大会举行，摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强主题演讲《中国新篇章： 科技 与再平衡》。 邢自强表示，依托丰富的人才储备，中国处于AI创新前沿，中国大语言模型的性价比较高。AI既能增 益、也能替代劳动力，缓解人工智能对劳动力市场造成的扰动，还需更多政策支持。 邢自强认为，人形机器人5万亿美元全球市场大幕拉开，预测到2050年人形机器人累计应用规模将达到 10亿台，其中约30%来自中国。 附演讲PPT 美降温超预期,但持久性缓和仍难以实现 中美缓和超预期 然而在竞争性对抗格局下，中美缓和仍较为懿弱 | | 货量进口 如果大豆 | 2025 Jan | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一点 在的按照片 | - 10 2 2 10 10 2 2 4 10 10 2 2 10 | | | | | | 全身实质性描述明新芬太原资讯 | Sels | NULL | | | BOTACUL 201202 ...

Summary of Shanxi Coal International Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shanxi Coal International - **Industry**: Coal Production Key Points Production and Sales Forecast - Shanxi Coal International expects coal production to remain between 35-36 million tons in 2025, aligning with production capacity [2][3] - Sales target for 2025 is set at 26-27 million tons, with metallurgical coal sold based on market conditions and thermal coal primarily for supply assurance [2][3] Regulatory Environment - The impact of Shanxi Province's safety and environmental policies on production is expected to diminish starting January 2025, with regulatory intensity anticipated to remain similar to 2024 [2][5] Cost Control - Cost control has been effective, with costs dropping to 230 RMB/ton in Q3 2025, and an expected average cost below 300 RMB/ton for the year, down from 308 RMB/ton in 2024 [2][7] - The company attributes cost reductions to stable sales, passive cost reductions due to declining performance, and strict expense management [7] Price Expectations - Thermal coal prices are projected to fluctuate between 700-800 RMB/ton from December to Q1 2026, with limited demand growth and supply-side reforms influencing this stability [2][8] - For 2026, thermal coal prices are expected to range from 700-900 RMB/ton, with a central tendency around 750-800 RMB/ton [4][12] Inventory Management - Coal inventory was high at over 3 million tons in Q1 2025 but has decreased significantly by Q3, with expectations of returning to a reasonable level of around 300,000 tons by December [10] Import Policies - The company anticipates that if domestic demand weakens, there may be tighter controls on coal imports, which have been increasing but are expected to stabilize [11] Resource Development - Shanxi Coal International is actively monitoring resource release opportunities in Shanxi Province, with plans to pursue new mining rights as they become available [13] Market Dynamics - The company notes that the demand for thermal coal is stable, and the supply-side adjustments over the past two years have limited growth in new production capacity, reducing the likelihood of significant price fluctuations [12] Conclusion - Overall, Shanxi Coal International is positioned to maintain stable production and sales in the coming years, with effective cost management and a favorable regulatory environment contributing to its outlook. The company is also strategically focused on resource acquisition to support future growth.

金属行业 2026 年年度策略展望 20251130 摘要 美联储降息预期升温，叠加新任主席可能采取鸽派政策，流动性宽松预 期推动贵金属价格上涨，预计 12 月会议前市场将持续交易降息预期。 铜价受宏观经济预期转好和供给端扰动影响，2026 年有望继续上涨， 相关股票标的 EPS 有望明显提升，且存在估值修复空间。 铝板块受益于降息预期和宏观情绪偏好，供需紧平衡甚至短缺状态或将 持续至 2026 年，建议关注高分红属性公司及受益铝价上涨的公司。 锡价因供给端扰动和下游电子焊料需求支撑而强势，短期内仍有上行空 间，中长期供需平衡偏紧状态将持续，股票市场仍有上行空间。 锂市场近期经历波动，但基本面显示库存下降，12 月中旬前价格无明显 下行风险，中长期仍看好，一季度即使出现问题，也应积极介入。 稀土市场供给端管控加强，需求端传统领域维持景气，机器人领域快速 发展带动需求增长，预期稀土价格中枢将持续抬升。 钢铁行业四季度为淡季，需求放缓，但明年供给侧改革和限产政策有望 推动板块盈利翻倍，目前钢铁板块估值较低，前景乐观。 Q&A 近期金属行业的波动情况如何？主要原因是什么？ 近期金属行业出现了较大波动，主要原因是美联 ...

Core Insights - China's economy is expected to achieve a growth target of around 5% in 2025, demonstrating resilience amid global uncertainties and domestic challenges [3][4] - The shift towards new economic drivers and quality improvements is a significant trend, with strong performance in high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors [5][6] Economic Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the value added of major equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industries grew by 9.7% and 9.6% respectively, outpacing overall industrial growth [5] - Exports showed a robust growth rate of 6.2% from January to October, indicating strong international competitiveness in sectors like new energy and high-end equipment [5][6] Consumer Trends - Consumer preferences are shifting towards high-quality, smart appliances, with over 50% of smart home appliance sales in major retail channels [6] - Final consumption expenditure contributed 53.5% to economic growth in the first three quarters, reflecting a significant increase from the previous year [6] Policy and Future Outlook - The Chinese government is expected to implement more proactive fiscal and monetary policies to support economic recovery and growth in 2026 [8] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to create new growth opportunities, with a focus on structural reforms and enhancing market vitality [8][7]

Group 1 - The core theme of the article is the K-shaped recovery and recession in the U.S. economy post-global public health events, highlighting the contrasting performance of high-end manufacturing and the real estate sector [1] - The expectation for the U.S. real estate market in the coming year largely hinges on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which historically have a positive impact on real estate investments and sales [9][11] - The current down cycle in the U.S. real estate market has been prolonged, lasting four years since November 2021, with a notable decline in existing home sales but resilience in new home sales and rising home prices [11][14] Group 2 - The complexity of the current real estate cycle is attributed to both cyclical and structural factors, including high mortgage rates and insufficient housing supply since 2008, leading to high prices and cautious behavior from developers [14][16] - A significant portion of existing mortgage loans have low rates, discouraging homeowners from buying or selling, which contributes to a decrease in the supply of existing homes [16][19] - The housing deficit in the U.S. remains historically high, with approximately 4.7 million units needed, while new home construction is expected to be lower than previous years, maintaining upward pressure on prices and rents [22][31] Group 3 - Proposed policy measures to address the real estate challenges include introducing 50-year fixed-rate mortgages to lower monthly payments and various supply-side reforms aimed at increasing housing availability [29][32] - The outlook for the real estate market in the coming year suggests limited improvement in supply, with builders remaining cautious due to high costs and reduced profit margins, while demand is expected to stabilize with potential interest rate cuts [31][32] - The political landscape, particularly the upcoming midterm elections, may influence fiscal policies that could impact the real estate market, with a focus on addressing affordability issues for lower-income households [33]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities indicates that the U.S. economy will experience a shift from strong to weak internal momentum in the first half of the year, with potential for a rebound in real estate demand in the second half due to possible interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] Economic Recovery and Real Estate - The U.S. economy is undergoing a K-shaped recovery post-pandemic, with strong performance in high-end manufacturing driven by AI investments, while the real estate sector remains sluggish [2] - The upcoming elections and policies from the Trump administration are expected to focus on real estate, particularly in light of recent Democratic victories in local elections related to housing affordability [2] Interest Rates and Housing Market Dynamics - Historically, interest rate cuts have positively impacted real estate, with effects typically seen within 1 to 2 years for investment and sales, while home prices tend to rise significantly 6 to 18 months after rate cuts begin [2][3] - The current real estate downturn has been prolonged, lasting four years since November 2021, with new home sales showing unexpected resilience despite a significant drop in existing home sales [2][3] Challenges in the Housing Market - The complexity of the current cycle is attributed to both cyclical and structural factors, including high mortgage rates and a lack of new construction since 2008, leading to high prices and limited supply [3][4] - Over 52% of existing mortgage holders have rates below 4%, making them reluctant to sell or buy, which constrains the supply of existing homes [3][4] Housing Supply and Demand Gap - As of 2023, the U.S. faces a housing gap of approximately 4.7 million units, with demand significantly outpacing supply [4] - The anticipated completion of new homes in 2024 is expected to be lower than previous years, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [4] Future Outlook - The report suggests that without a recession, significant interest rate cuts are unlikely, as historical data shows limited rate reductions in non-recession years [5][6] - The Trump administration's focus on supply-side reforms and potential introduction of longer-term mortgages could help alleviate current housing market pressures, but this will take time [6][7] - For the upcoming year, supply is expected to improve slightly due to interest rate cuts, but builders remain cautious due to high costs and demand uncertainties [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market doubts whether the current valuation of NVIDIA has a bubble. The dovish shift of hawkish officials, mild US inflation, and rising employment risks have increased the expectation of an interest rate cut in December. The broad - monetary cycle provides upward momentum for non - ferrous metals [6]. - The domestic supply of bauxite remains tight, while the overseas supply is expected to be loose. The daily output of alumina in October decreased slightly. The domestic alumina production capacity is stable, and the price may oscillate weakly in the short term [6]. - Due to supply - side reforms and the pressure of global carbon neutrality, the capacity expansion space of electrolytic aluminum is limited. The supply shortage of primary aluminum may continue. The short - term macro environment is favorable for aluminum prices, and Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level [6]. - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain high, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1后市研判 (Market Outlook) - Despite NVIDIA's strong performance and outlook, market doubts about its valuation bubble persist. The shift in the stance of hawkish officials, combined with mild inflation and rising employment risks in the US, has increased the expectation of an interest - rate cut in December, which provides upward momentum for non - ferrous metals [6]. - The domestic bauxite supply is tight, but overseas supply is expected to be loose. The daily output of alumina in October decreased slightly. The domestic alumina production capacity is stable, and its price may oscillate weakly in the short term [6]. - Electrolytic aluminum's capacity expansion is restricted. The supply shortage of primary aluminum may continue. With the decline in aluminum prices, downstream procurement has increased, and social inventories have decreased. The short - term macro environment is favorable for aluminum prices, and Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the December dot - plot on the interest - rate cut expectation for next year [6]. - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain high, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [6]. 3.2行情回顾 (Market Review) - In November, the futures prices of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy showed divergent trends. The alumina futures price continued to be weak, hitting a low of 2,701 yuan/ton. The futures prices of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy rose first and then fell, reaching highs of 22,160 yuan/ton and 21,390 yuan/ton respectively [8][9]. 3.3宏观面 (Macroeconomic Situation) - **US Situation**: The US economic data is mixed. The ISM manufacturing PMI has been in contraction for eight consecutive months, while the ISM services PMI reached an eight - month high. The labor market shows signs of slowdown, and inflation has picked up. The shift in the stance of hawkish officials has increased the expectation of an interest - rate cut in December to 75%. The long - term market pricing implies more than three interest - rate cuts within a year, which is positive for copper prices [14]. - **China Situation**: In October, China's national economy was generally stable. The manufacturing PMI declined, while the non - manufacturing PMI increased slightly. The government has introduced policies to promote "two - major" construction and consumption. Six departments have jointly issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption, aiming to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027 [16][20]. 3.4基本面 (Fundamentals) - **Supply Side** - **Bauxite**: In October, the domestic bauxite output decreased. The supply in Henan has recovered, but that in Shanxi has not fully recovered, and the domestic supply remains tight. China's bauxite imports in October decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. As the rainy season in Guinea ends, the imported bauxite supply is expected to increase [22][25]. - **Alumina**: In October, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina increased year - on - year, but the daily output decreased slightly. The operating capacity is still at a high level, but the weekly operating rate decreased slightly. The production profit of some enterprises has turned negative, and the expectation of production cuts is rising. The alumina price is expected to oscillate at a low level [29]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October, China's electrolytic aluminum output increased slightly year - on - year. The operating capacity remains stable at a high level, but the overall increase is limited due to energy - consumption indicators and capacity - replacement policies. The winter environmental protection restrictions may have a limited impact on production. Overseas, the release of electrolytic aluminum capacity is lower than expected due to various factors [30][34]. - **Demand Side** - **Aluminum Processing Enterprises**: High aluminum prices have put pressure on the开工 rate of aluminum processing enterprises. The开工 rate of aluminum profiles is 62.0%, with different trends in various sub - sectors [38]. - **Real Estate Market**: The Chinese real estate market is still in the adjustment period, which suppresses the demand for aluminum in the real estate sector [43]. - **New Energy Sector**: The new energy sector maintains high prosperity. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to grow, and the demand for aluminum in the photovoltaic and wind - power industries is strong [47]. - **Home Appliance Market**: The home appliance market is under pressure. The output of most home appliances decreased in October, and the sales are expected to remain under pressure in the future [50]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Inventories**: The LME aluminum inventory has increased significantly compared with the end of October and may continue to decline. The SHFE aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level [54]. - **Social Inventories**: As of November 24, the 5 - location electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased compared with the previous week. The low social inventory provides support for aluminum prices [57]. - **Other Aspects** - **Copper - Aluminum Ratio**: The copper - aluminum ratio has exceeded 4.0, which is beneficial for aluminum to replace copper [59]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: The开工 rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry remained stable in November. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the import of un - wrought aluminum alloy decreased significantly in October [62][65]. - **Aluminum Alloy Trade**: In October, the import of un - wrought aluminum alloy decreased significantly, while the export increased. The long - term price inversion has led to a significant reduction in imports [65].