南华煤焦产业风险管理日报 2025/08/04 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 张泫：Z0022723 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 双焦价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 950-1350 | 32.68% | 63.87% | | 焦炭 | 1480-1900 | 25.37% | 49.13% | source： 南华研究,wind 双焦风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 套利 | 月间套利 | 无 | 做空焦煤9-1价差 | jm2509&jm2601 | 卖出 | （-40，-30） | source： 南华研究 黑色仓单日报 | | 单位 | 2025-08-04 | 2025-08-01 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Benefiting from the optimistic expectations and cost support brought by the strength of coke, the price of ferrosilicon manganese rose from a low level. However, the strong expectations were not fully realized, and the market operation logic was likely to switch to the industrial side. Currently, the supply - demand pattern of ferrosilicon manganese was relatively weak, industrial contradictions were likely to accumulate, and there was no positive news from the ore end, so the cost - driven increase was difficult to continue. Under the dominance of the industrial logic, the trend of ferrosilicon manganese was expected to fluctuate and consolidate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the anti - involution policy in the industry [4][64]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Expected Dominance of the Black Market and the Rise of Ferrosilicon Manganese - In July, both the equity and commodity markets rose, benefiting from the positive expectations of the "anti - involution" policy. Industrial products in China increased collectively, and the black metals were also outstanding, with all futures prices rising significantly. The "anti - involution" was the trigger, and there were industrial and macro - level bases for this upward trend. In the off - season, the industrial contradictions in the black industry accumulated less, some varieties fell near the marginal cost, and the "anti - involution" triggered market expectations of supply - side reform, which jointly ignited the market's bullish sentiment, leading to the bottom - up rebound of black metals [8]. - Ferrosilicon manganese also rose. As of July 30, the main futures price of ferrosilicon manganese closed at 6,116 yuan/ton, a rise of 8.40% from the end of last month, and the highest price during the period reached 6,414 yuan/ton, a new high since mid - March. The strong futures price drove up the spot price, but the increase was relatively lower, and the basis weakened. The prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Tianjin increased by 4.50%, 8.89%, and 8.04% respectively. The tender price of mainstream steel mills also increased, and suppliers' willingness to hold prices was still strong. The regional price difference changed significantly during this rise, with the increases in Ningxia and Tianjin being significantly larger than that in Inner Mongolia due to the increase in speculative demand [10]. - In addition to the strong expectations, the increase in cost also promoted the rise of the ferrosilicon manganese price. During the rise of the black market, coking coal and coke performed strongly, providing cost support for ferrosilicon manganese. The average production costs in the northern and southern regions increased by 201.7 yuan and 301.8 yuan respectively compared with the end of last month [11]. - The industry held an "anti - involution" meeting and reached a preliminary consensus on production reduction. Enterprises actively expanded manganese ore reserves to ensure cost stability after production reduction. Overall, the price of ferrosilicon manganese rose from a low level in both futures and spot markets [15]. 3.2 Weak Real - World Pattern and Limited Upward Driving Force - The strong expectations were not fully realized, and the optimistic sentiment was revised. The Politburo meeting on July 30 adjusted the relevant statements, and the market's expectations for the anti - involution policy were repeated. The meeting did not directly mention real estate, weakening the market's expectations of policy relaxation in the real estate sector. The recently announced PMI data was lower than expected, with the value in July being 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level [16]. - Affected by this, the market sentiment of ferrosilicon manganese weakened, and the operation logic was likely to switch to the industrial side. Currently, the inventory of ferrosilicon manganese was decreasing. The inventory in all major links decreased, especially the exchange warehouse receipts. The inventory of steel mills continued to be at a low level, and the inventory of production enterprises decreased from a high level. As of the week of August 1, the total in - plant inventory of ferrosilicon manganese production enterprises was 164,000 tons, which had decreased for four consecutive weeks. The inventory of steel mills also decreased, and the exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 52,700 tons compared with the end of June. However, once the demand weakened, the supply - demand contradiction might intensify, and the inventory was likely to accumulate again [19]. - Since mid - May, ferrosilicon manganese enterprises have actively resumed production, and the output has increased significantly. In July, the output was 819,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. High - frequency data showed that the production of enterprises was stable, and the supply remained relatively high. As of the week of August 1, the operating rate of 187 independent ferrosilicon manganese enterprises was 42.18%, and the daily average output was 27,260 tons. The production in the main producing areas increased, and the output in Yunnan also increased significantly due to the seasonal factor of the wet season. Other regions' production was relatively stable [24][27]. - After the price of ferrosilicon manganese rose, the business situation of enterprises improved significantly, and the supply was expected to remain at a high level. As of July 30, the production costs in the northern and southern regions increased, but the spot price increased more, and the spot profit improved significantly. Ferrosilicon manganese still had an over - supply situation, and there were many new production capacities. In 2024, the total planned production capacity was 7.774 million tons, and in 2025, the planned production capacity was more than 3.5 million tons [34][36]. - Different from the supply situation, the demand for ferrosilicon manganese remained weakly stable. In the traditional off - season of the steel market, the demand for building materials was weak, and the output of rebar decreased, which affected the demand for ferrosilicon manganese. As of the week of August 1, the weekly demand for ferrosilicon manganese was 123,700 tons, a decrease of 1.72% from the end of June. The positive factor was that the tender volume and price of mainstream steel mills increased in July. Although steel mills were profitable and actively producing, the demand for ferrosilicon manganese was unlikely to increase significantly, and attention should be paid to the impact of production restrictions [37][38]. - In conclusion, due to the high - level rigid demand and the release of speculative demand, the inventory of ferrosilicon manganese decreased, but its supply - demand pattern was weak. With the improvement of profitability and the unchanged over - supply situation, the supply continued to increase while the demand remained weakly stable. If the market returned to the industrial logic, the price of ferrosilicon manganese was likely to be under pressure [46]. 3.3 Changing Supply - Demand Pattern of Manganese Ore and Difficult - to - Sustain Cost Support - During the rise of the black market in July, coking coal and coke were the strongest, providing cost support for ferrosilicon manganese. However, the subsequent upward space was limited. The main factors determining the cost of ferrosilicon manganese were the ore end and electricity price. Recently, the price of manganese ore was mostly stable, and the electricity price did not change much, so the increase in the cost of ferrosilicon manganese was limited [47]. - The supply - demand pattern of manganese ore was changing, gradually shifting from a tight supply situation at the beginning of the year to an over - supply situation, as reflected by the continuous increase in port inventory. As of the week of July 25, the total port inventory of manganese ore was 449,500 tons, an increase of 271,000 tons from the end of June. The increase in inventory was mainly due to the increase in supply, with the latest shipment volume reaching 1.1124 million tons, a new high for the single - week shipment volume this year. The increase in supply came from the recovery of the production capacity of South22 in Australia and the high - level shipment from South Africa [51]. - Different from the continuous increase in supply, the demand for manganese ore remained weakly stable. Although the price of ferrosilicon manganese rose and the business situation of production enterprises improved, the raw material procurement was mainly on - demand, and the port clearance volume changed little. As of the week of July 25, the port clearance volume of manganese ore was 516,400 tons, a decrease of 69,600 tons from the end of last month [60]. - In summary, the strength of coke provided support for ferrosilicon manganese, but the main factors determining its cost were the ore end and electricity price. Currently, the electricity price was stable, while the supply of manganese ore was increasing and the demand was weak. The price of manganese ore was likely to be under pressure, and the cost - driven increase was difficult to continue [63]. 3.4 Conclusion - Benefiting from the positive policy expectations of "anti - involution", the black metals rose collectively since July, and the price of ferrosilicon manganese also increased. However, the strong expectations were not fully realized, and the market operation logic was likely to switch to the industrial side. The supply - demand pattern of ferrosilicon manganese was weak, with increasing supply and weakly stable demand. The supply - demand pattern of manganese ore was also changing, and the cost - driven increase was difficult to continue. Under the dominance of the industrial logic, the trend of ferrosilicon manganese was expected to fluctuate and consolidate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the anti - involution policy in the industry [64].

徐浩然—有色分析师 从业资格证号：F03120971 联系电话：0571-28132578 邮箱：xuhaoran@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 商品研究 [Table_ReportType] 工业硅/多晶硅早报 走势评级： 工业硅：震荡 多晶硅：震荡 楼家豪—有色分析师 从业资格证号：F3080463 投资咨询证号：Z0018424 联系电话：0571-28132615 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 双硅大幅回落，供给侧改革情绪衰退 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 8 月 4 日 报告内容摘要: ◆相关咨询： 本次硅煤价格调涨，主要受成本、供给和需求三方面的共同 促动，使价格呈现 30-110 元/吨的小幅反弹，而对工业硅而言，按全煤工艺 计算，预计成本将增加 140-170 元/吨。 ◆基本面： 工业硅：现货价格方面，华东不通氧 553#硅在 9500-9600 元/吨，较上一交 易日持平。供给方面：6 月份工业硅产量再度抬升至 32.6 万吨，较 5 月提高 2w 吨，新疆地 ...

行 华福证券 建筑材料 2025 年 08 月 04 日 业 研 究 建筑材料 城市更新呵护需求，反内卷加快供给出清 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 中共中央政治局 7 月 30 日召开会议，会议指出要落实落细更加积极的 财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，落实好中央城市工作会议精神，高质量 开展城市更新；上海加快推进"两旧一村"改造，今年计划启动 25 个城中 村改造；深圳规划 2026 年前建成深汕通用机场，提升 eVTOL 服务保障能 力；重庆今年滚动实施城中村改造项目 150 个；广州 7 月二手住宅网签 8962 套，同比下降 10.7%；山东将数字家庭纳入"好房子"建设内容，对个人 购置智能家居予以补贴；沈阳 2025 年度住房公积金缴存基数上限调整为 29523 元；哈尔滨发布公积金新政，以旧换新贷款额度，最高上浮 20%； 广州从化推出"以旧换新""房票"等房地产健康发展七项措施；贵州 2025 年计划改造城中村 6268 户，调整土地增值税预征率；成都发布 2025 年城 市更新片区 12 个项目机会清单，涉及城市有机更新、危旧房改造、自主改 造等多个方面，总投资额高达数百亿元。中长期来看：1 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The industrial silicon market has seen a recent rebound in both futures and spot prices, but considering the cooling of sentiment and hedging pressure on the upper side of the market, the market is expected to adjust. However, bullish sentiment may still fluctuate, so caution is needed in operations. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production by silicon enterprises [1]. - The polysilicon market has also seen a continuous upward trend in the futures market since the end of June. Although the recent sentiment has faded, it still fluctuates. The market is volatile, and caution is required in operations. Continuous attention should be paid to the evolution of macro - sentiment and the registration of warehouse receipts [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,550 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 10,150 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped 2.97% to 8,500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, as silicon prices continue to rise, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. In the southwest production area, with the arrival of the wet season, power costs have decreased, and enterprise operations have steadily increased. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, so supply is expected to increase steadily. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut state, but some silicon material plants plan to resume production in July, which will bring some demand increments. For the silicone industry, a major factory has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, resulting in a temporary tightening of supply. With the support of silicon prices on the cost side, silicone prices have continued to rise. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: N - type dense material increased 1.10% to 46 yuan/kg, N - type re - feed material rose 1.08% to 47 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material increased 1.12% to 45 yuan/kg, N - type granular silicon remained flat at 44.5 yuan/kg, and the closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.14% to 49,200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut state, but some may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, production is expected to increase slightly, with July's production approaching 110,000 tons. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market is generally weak, with inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials rising. Recently, due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, downstream silicon wafer prices have followed suit. Enterprises say they will actively respond to policies, and the trading atmosphere has improved, but the terminal market is still weak due to the large over - consumption of demand in the first half of the year [1]. Other Information - The component procurement of the 1350MW solar photovoltaic power station project of Dongying Huiyang Clean Energy Co., Ltd.'s fourth - phase fishery - photovoltaic complementary project has been terminated due to policy adjustments. Another project in Dongying City, Lijin County, with an installed capacity of 975MWp, is planned to be invested about 741 million yuan [1]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued the 2025 special energy - saving supervision task list for the polysilicon industry, requiring local industrial and information technology departments to complete the supervision and submit results by September 30, 2025 [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of "capacity governance" and "technological innovation" in driving economic growth and addressing challenges in China's economy [4] - The meeting highlighted that while the economy shows resilience and progress, it still faces significant risks and challenges [4] - The focus is on deepening reforms and fostering new competitive industries through technological innovation and integration with industrial innovation [4] Group 2 - A new round of supply-side reforms is emerging, benefiting leading companies in the chemical sub-industry as old capacities are phased out [5] - The chemical industry is currently experiencing low capacity utilization and profit margins, with a utilization rate of only 71.9% and a profit margin of 12.95% as of Q2 2025 [5][6] - The peak of new capacity additions in the chemical industry has passed, leading to a decrease in capital expenditure, which is expected to improve industry conditions [6] Group 3 - Technological innovation is crucial for the country's future development, with a focus on "domestic substitution" in materials [7] - The industry has made significant progress in overcoming technological barriers set by foreign manufacturers, particularly in semiconductor materials and high-performance new materials [7] - The emphasis is on investing resources in critical materials that have not yet achieved domestic production to ensure safety and self-sufficiency [7]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 08 03 年 月 日 电力设备 LG 新能源签订铁锂储能大单，发改革深入推进招标投标制度改革 光伏：工信部对硅料启动节能监察，发改革计划推进招投标制度改革。8 月 1 日，工信 部印发 2025 年度多晶硅行业专项节能监察任务清单的通知，计划对 41 家多晶硅企业 启动专项节能监察，有望进一步优化多晶硅料环节的节能推进情况，对落后产能有望进 行有效改革。7 月 31 日，国家发展改革委召开 2025 年上半年发展改革形势通报会。 会议强调要破除" 内卷式"竞争，深入推进招标投标制度改革。随着反内卷行动的持续 推进，硅料价格开始上行，后续有望推动组件价格开始修复，随着后续招投标制度的改 革，降低业主在价格端的敏感度，改善整体价格竞争环境，有望更好推进产业链优胜劣 汰。核心关注三大方向：1）供给侧改革下的产业链涨价机会，核心关注协鑫科技、通 威股份、大全能源、双良节能、晶澳科技、东方日升等；2）新技术背景下带来的中长 期成长性机会，核心关注迈为股份、爱旭股份、聚和材料等。3）钙钛矿 GW 级布局带 来的产业化机会，核心关注金晶科技等。 风电：AR7 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the current market rally may be perceived as a "water buffalo" driven by liquidity, potentially overlooking the crucial theme of profit recovery [3][15][26] - Historical data shows that since 2000, there have been four instances of a trend reversal in ROE for the entire A-share non-financial sector, occurring in 2006 Q2, 2009 Q3, 2016 Q3, and 2020 Q2 [3][15] - The report draws parallels between the current anti-involution policies and the supply-side reforms of 2016, noting that the focus has shifted from traditional industries like steel and coal to emerging manufacturing sectors such as photovoltaics [3][25] Group 2 - The conditions for interest rate cuts in the U.S. are maturing, with recent employment data indicating a weakening economy, although this does not equate to a full-blown recession [4][40] - The report highlights that the recent adjustments in the market reflect a retraction in trading scales rather than a change in the long-term trend of improving corporate profits in China [6][49] - Recommendations for investment include focusing on upstream resource products and capital goods that benefit from both overseas manufacturing recovery and domestic anti-involution policies [6][49] Group 3 - Trade issues between China and the U.S. are identified as potential market disturbances, but their impact is expected to be less severe than in April due to lower tariff rates announced in July [5][46][47] - The report notes that the recent fluctuations in the market are more about the retraction of previous gains rather than a fundamental shift in the long-term outlook for supply clearing [3][26] - The report suggests that the focus of domestic policies will revolve around "people's livelihood," recommending attention to dividend-type consumption sectors such as food and beverages, as well as certain service industries [6][49]

Group 1 - In July 2023, China's capital market experienced extreme volatility, particularly in the commodity market, with the Wenhua Commodity Index rising by 7.2% in the first 19 trading days, followed by a significant pullback [1][4] - Key commodities such as polysilicon surged by 64%, coking coal by 50%, and glass by 34%, but subsequently, many of these commodities saw declines of around 20% [1][6] - The market's initial rally was triggered by the sixth Central Financial Committee meeting, which emphasized the need for legal and regulatory governance of low-price competition and the orderly exit of backward production capacity [5][6] Group 2 - The market's focus on terms like "low price" and "backward capacity exit" led to comparisons with the supply-side reforms initiated in late 2015, particularly affecting polysilicon, which saw significant price increases [6][7] - Following the announcement of a new round of policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, the commodity market entered a phase of aggressive price increases, with coking coal hitting five consecutive daily price limits [6][7] - However, subsequent policy shifts indicated a more targeted approach to capacity governance, leading to a sharp decline in commodity prices, particularly for previously high-flying products [7][8] Group 3 - The A-share market also experienced a strong upward trend in July, with steel stocks rising over 25% and basic chemicals and construction materials increasing by more than 18% [8][9] - The political bureau meeting's adjustments to the anti-involution narrative may pose downward pressure on cyclical sectors, as evidenced by market corrections in early August [9][10] - Potential risks for the A-share market include uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China tariff negotiations and a weakening expectation for macroeconomic policy support [10][11] Group 4 - The U.S. labor market data showed significant downward revisions, raising concerns about the overall economic outlook and potentially impacting global markets [12][13][14] - The credibility of U.S. economic data has come under scrutiny, which could affect global financial markets, including A-shares, especially given their current high valuations [14] - Despite these challenges, the "national team" has historically intervened to stabilize the market, suggesting that while large declines may be mitigated, volatility remains a concern [14][16]

作者 | 独行侠 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 今年 7月，是中国资本市场史诗级的一个月。尤其是大宗商品市场，极致的过山车行情，实属历 史罕见。 前 19个交易日，文华商品指数累计大涨7.2%。其中多晶硅大涨64%，焦煤大涨50%，玻璃大涨 34%。而后短短6个交易日，大盘回吐了一半涨幅，焦煤、玻璃又纷纷重挫20%左右。要知道， 商品往往有10倍或以上的杠杆，赚钱、亏钱都是成比例大幅扩大。 一念天堂，一念地狱。为什么商品市场会如此极端？商品对应的 A股周期股行情又会如何演绎？ 01 从 7月1日开始，不管是大宗商品市场，还是A股市场，均迎来了一波酣畅淋漓的大涨行情。 导火索无它，即 第六次中央财经委员会召开。它的前身是中央财经领导小组， 2018年3月改名 而来，职责是 针对经济领域的顶层设计、总体布局、统筹协调、整体推进、督促落实。 因此，资本市场对此次重磅会议给予了高度关注，并积极定价。尤其是会议中有一句重磅定调： 依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出。 彼时，市场更在意 "低价"、"落后产能""退出"等关键词，开始与2015年底启动的 ...