黑色金属专场 - 2026 年年度策略会议 · 恒中有变，观复 顺时 20260114 摘要 2025 年房地产市场疲软，投资、销售和新开工面积大幅下降，对钢材 需求形成拖累，一线城市房价下跌加剧市场情绪冲击。 预计 2026 年房地产政策以稳定为主，但内生动能不足，主要指标延续 下降趋势，房地产用钢需求预计下降 10%左右，但边际影响减小。 2025 年基建投资增速不及预期，今年预计基建投资增速在 5%左右，用 钢需求与去年基本持平，对钢材需求形成一定支撑。 制造业整体表现优于建筑业，两新政策和反内卷政策有望推动 PPI 回升， 改善工业企业利润，预计 2026 年制造业用钢需求增长约 2%。 钢材出口大幅上升，预计全年出口接近 1.2 亿吨，创历史新高，但面临 反倾销调查和贸易摩擦加剧等挑战，2026 年出口增速可能放缓。 2026 年国内粗钢产量预计下降约 1%，供应总体偏宽松，炉料价格中枢 下移，吨钢利润可能边际修复，整体供需格局偏宽松，以震荡筑底为主。 预计 2026 年铁矿石全球供应增量约 4,200 万吨，中国进口增量保持高 位，但国内需求可能下滑，港口库存将继续累积，61 指数均价约 92 美 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still has expectations, providing strong support at the bottom. Although the weekly apparent consumption has slightly declined, it remains strong year-on-year. It is normal for the demand to decline slightly in the off-season. The warming up of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. The total inventory is relatively high, exerting some pressure. The hot-rolled coil futures have briefly fallen below the 5-day moving average, and attention should be paid to the support near the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. It is recommended to adopt a cautiously bullish approach and consider buying on dips. However, note that the oscillation range has not been completely broken yet [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures prices: On Wednesday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased by 8,625 lots, with a trading volume of 309,018 lots, showing a decline compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,297 yuan, and the high was 3,316 yuan. It showed an intraday increase in open interest and oscillated. In terms of the daily moving average, it briefly fell below the 5-day moving average but remained above the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, closing at 3,306 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% [1]. - Spot prices: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The futures-spot basis was -16 yuan, with the futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 8, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 10,000 tons to 3.0551 million tons compared to the previous week. It was 16,200 tons higher year-on-year. The output has rebounded for three consecutive weeks, mainly due to the improvement in steel mill profitability, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of some steel mill hot metal from building materials to plates, and the intensified resumption of production after the end of the annual maintenance of steel mills, driving the supply to recover. The subsequent recovery strength needs to be observed [4]. - Demand: As of January 8, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 24,300 tons to 3.0834 million tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand slightly declined, but it was 72,500 tons higher year-on-year, indicating that the demand still has resilience [4]. - Inventory: As of January 8, the total inventory decreased by 28,300 tons to 3.6813 million tons compared to the previous week (the social inventory increased by 21,700 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 50,000 tons, resulting in a total inventory decrease of 28,300 tons). The total inventory continued to be destocked, but the destocking amplitude narrowed. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years, and the inventory still exerts a suppressing effect on prices [4]. - Policy: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced. In the short term, it will lead to fluctuations in exports, an increase in supply, and price pressure. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Deeply rectifying involution-style competition was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: A decline in supply-side production, the expectation of the start of winter storage demand, the rush to export, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and the strength of iron ore as a furnace charge [5]. - Bearish factors: The resumption of production by steel mills in January exceeded expectations, the seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and the suppression of prices by inventory accumulation [5].

Core Viewpoint - The anti-involution policy is expected to reassess the Chinese chemical industry, leading to a significant slowdown in global chemical capacity expansion [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The Chinese chemical industry has abundant net operating cash flow, and the slowdown in capacity expansion will significantly enhance potential dividend yields, shifting the industry from a capital consumption model to a profit return model [1] - Supply-side optimization is anticipated to drive a rebound in industry prosperity, with chemical stocks exhibiting high elasticity and high dividend advantages [1] - Key areas of focus include petrochemicals, coal chemicals, organic silicon, phosphate chemicals, and glyphosate [1] Group 2: Opportunities and Trends - The industry presents four major opportunities: low-cost expansion, improvement in prosperity, breakthroughs in new materials, and high-dividend stocks [1] - The chromium salt industry is experiencing a value reassessment due to increased power demand from AI data centers and commercial aircraft engine demand, with a projected supply-demand gap of 340,900 tons by 2028, representing a 32% gap ratio [1] Group 3: Investment Index - The chemical leader ETF (516220) tracks the sub-sector chemical index (000813), which selects listed companies focused on the manufacturing of fertilizers, pesticides, and plastic products to reflect the overall performance of related listed companies in the chemical industry [1] - This index features cyclical and growth characteristics, concentrating on investment opportunities within the chemical sub-sectors [1]

Report Information - Report Name: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the market supply has increased, and the supply pressure has not been fully digested. The demand side continues to decline, and the inventory is expected to face accumulation pressure. In the short - term, it may have a short - term rally as a low - valued commodity, but in the long - term, the industry's core contradictions remain unsolved, and the outlook is not optimistic if exports do not expand significantly or backward production capacity is not effectively cleared. It will operate weakly in the short - term [7]. - For glass, the market shipment is good, and prices have been raised due to market sentiment. However, the high - inventory problem restricts the market, and the cancellation of export tax rebates squeezes profit margins. Before substantial benefits such as production capacity clearance appear, the market is expected to rebound and then fall [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Futures Data on January 13**: SA601 opened at 1155, closed at 1136, down 0.61%; SA605 opened at 1242, closed at 1212, down 1.30%. The overall supply increased, demand declined, and the downstream float glass market was weak. The long - term outlook depends on export expansion and production capacity clearance [7]. - **Glass Futures Data on January 13**: FG601 opened at 1082, closed at 978, down 1.41%; FG605 opened at 1143, closed at 1096, down 3.09%. The market shipment was good, and prices rose due to market sentiment. High inventory and the cancellation of export tax rebates are major constraints [7][8]. 2. Data Overview - **Price Trends**: There are figures showing the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass [10][12][14]. - **Soda Ash Production and Inventory**: Figures display the weekly soda ash production and enterprise inventory [17][19]. - **Market Price and Glass Production**: The figures show the central China heavy soda market price and flat glass production [20][21][23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the anti-involution policy will guide the industry from low-price competition to high-quality development, which is beneficial for establishing a healthier and more sustainable profit ecosystem across the entire industry chain [1] - The company believes that this shift will have a positive impact on its business [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that foreign institutions like Goldman Sachs and UBS are optimistic about the Chinese market, focusing on corporate profit growth as the main driver, replacing valuation recovery, with technology innovation and policy benefits seen as dual engines [1] Group 2 - Strong expectations for profit growth in 2026, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 20% increase in the MSCI China Index and a 12% increase in the CSI 300 Index, with a cumulative rise of 38% from 2026 to 2027, where corporate profits contribute 24% [2] - UBS forecasts a profit growth of over 14% for the MSCI China Index, with overall A-share profit growth rising from 6% in 2025 to 8%, driven by the technology sector, which accounts for 50% of the index [2] - Supporting factors include an increase in nominal GDP growth, a narrowing decline in PPI driving revenue growth, and policies optimizing supply-demand structures in industries like photovoltaics and chemicals [2] Group 3 - The MSCI China Index has a forward P/E ratio of only 12 times, significantly lower than the S&P 500 Index (22 times) and the Indian market (21 times), indicating a historical low [3] - Foreign ownership of A-shares is only 3.68%, much lower than the average of 40% in countries like Japan and South Korea, suggesting substantial room for increased allocation [3] - In the first ten months of 2025, foreign capital inflow into A-shares reached $50.6 billion, more than tripling year-on-year [3] Group 4 - Foreign investment is focusing on technology and structural opportunities, particularly in AI and its supply chain, with key areas including computing infrastructure and application scenarios in fintech and healthcare [4] Group 5 - Beneficiary sectors from policy dividends include new energy companies and high-end manufacturing leaders, with companies like CATL and Ganfeng Lithium receiving upgrades from Morgan Stanley [5] - Companies with high overseas revenue ratios in sectors like new energy vehicles and smart hardware are also targeted [5] - Structural opportunities in consumer services, particularly in dining and prepared foods, may see a rebound in the second half of the year due to PPI recovery [5] Group 6 - In the fourth quarter of 2025, northbound capital is expected to increase holdings in resource stocks while also adding to technology and financial sectors [6]

Economic Outlook - The core viewpoint emphasizes that 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," which is crucial for understanding future policies and economic environments. The focus will be on "comprehensive efforts" and "strategic initiative" in various sectors [3][4] - "Comprehensive efforts" suggests an acceleration in policy implementation across development and reform areas, while "strategic initiative" indicates an increase in proactive policy measures, particularly in domestic economic management and international trade [3][4] Policy Framework - The central economic work conference has highlighted an increased frequency of terms like "reform" and "opening up," indicating a shift in focus for 2026. The concept of "cross-cycle" has returned, but this does not imply a reduction in growth stabilization efforts [5][6] - Fiscal policy will remain proactive, ensuring necessary spending and debt levels, while monetary policy will emphasize flexibility and efficiency in using tools like interest rate cuts [6][5] Market Dynamics - The analysis of 2025 reveals three significant shifts: the weakening of post-pandemic scars, reduced impact from tariff conflicts, and the establishment of a coherent new policy framework since late 2024 [7][8][9] - The economic recovery in 2026 is characterized as "atypical," with limited volume elasticity and a focus on price normalization, leading to a nominal GDP recovery from approximately 4% in 2025 to around 5% in 2026 [9] Capital Market Insights - The relationship between the ten-year government bond yield and A-share dividend yield illustrates the emotional cycles in the capital market, which have been disrupted since 2022 due to long-term concerns about the Chinese economy [10][11] - Key events influencing market behavior include a policy shift in late 2024 and the introduction of DeepSeek, which has redirected investment thinking from macro to micro perspectives [12][11] Investment Behavior - The new tariff war initiated by the Trump administration has led to a reevaluation of investment strategies, with non-U.S. funds increasingly seeking opportunities in China as the perception of risk shifts [13] - The "anti-involution" policy has gained attention, indicating a structural approach to restoring corporate profitability and nominal GDP growth, which has initiated a domestic "funds rebalancing" process [13] Future Projections - The nominal GDP recovery is expected to continue driving the "funds rebalancing" process into 2026, with a potential rise in bond market interest rates and support for traditional sectors' profitability and valuation [14] - The RMB is anticipated to enter a period of appreciation, with a projected annual increase of 2-3%, which could attract foreign investment and positively impact the stock market [15]

Core Insights - The Chinese futures market experienced significant growth in 2025, with total trading volume reaching 90.74 billion contracts and total trading value at 766.25 trillion yuan, marking year-on-year increases of 17.4% and 23.74% respectively [1][2][11] Group 1: Market Performance - In December 2025, the national futures market recorded a trading volume of 9.51 billion contracts and a trading value of 90.81 trillion yuan, representing substantial year-on-year growth of 45.17% and 58.55% [1][11] - The trading volume in December 2025 increased by 23.55% compared to November, while the trading value surged by 36.32% [1][11] - The total open interest at the end of December 2025 was 45.24 million contracts, showing a month-on-month decline of 16.3% but a year-on-year increase of 13.7% [1][11] Group 2: Key Growth Drivers - The financial futures and options sector saw a remarkable year-on-year increase in trading volume and value of 94% and 33.66%, respectively, with volumes exceeding 300 million contracts and values surpassing 255 trillion yuan [2][11] - The non-ferrous metals and new energy metals sector experienced a trading volume increase of 64.11% and a value increase of 30.38%, with volumes exceeding 1 billion contracts and values surpassing 93 trillion yuan [4][12] - The precious metals sector, driven by new price highs for gold and silver futures, saw trading volume and value grow by 15.51% and 81.97%, respectively, with volumes exceeding 600 million contracts and values surpassing 146 trillion yuan [5][15] - The energy and chemical sectors exhibited strong trading activity, with energy trading volume increasing by 64.1% and value by 28.5%, while the chemical sector saw volume growth of 27.5% and value growth of 16.1% [9][16] - The black metals and building materials sector benefited from favorable policies, with overall trading volume increasing by nearly 11.2% [9][16] Group 3: Future Outlook - Projections for 2026 indicate that the national futures market is expected to continue its upward trend, with trading volume anticipated to reach between 95 billion and 100 billion contracts and trading value expected to exceed 800 trillion yuan [9][16]

Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to experience a recovery in profitability in 2026, marking a new starting point for supply-demand rebalancing, driven by anti-involution policies and advancements in new productive forces such as AI and robotics [2][5]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The chemical industry faced a downturn in profitability and valuation in 2025, but signs of stabilization and recovery are anticipated in 2026 [2]. - The peak of capital expenditure in the chemical sector has passed, with fixed asset investment turning negative in the second half of 2025, indicating the end of the capacity expansion cycle [5][14]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for chemicals is expected to gradually turn positive in 2026 after a prolonged period of decline [14]. Group 2: Investment Themes - Capital expenditure is decreasing, and leading companies like Wanhua Chemical are expected to see a recovery in profitability as they reduce capital spending and increase their global market share in MDI [5]. - The anti-involution policy is reshaping supply dynamics, with a focus on quality development and the exit of outdated capacities, benefiting companies with innovative capabilities and export advantages [5]. - New materials are driving demand growth in traditional chemicals, with companies like Dinglong Technology and Anji Technology positioned to benefit from domestic substitution in high-end materials [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Chemical prices have been under pressure, with the chemical product price index declining approximately 8.8% in 2025, but stock prices in the sector have rebounded by 33.3% [10][16]. - The operating rates of mainstream chemical products are showing signs of weakness, with inventory levels varying significantly across different products [17][18]. - The supply-demand balance for phosphate rock remains tight, with stable prices for high-grade phosphate rock, while the market for phosphate fertilizers is influenced by policy and demand fluctuations [46][43]. Group 4: Global Trends - The global chemical supply is shifting towards China, which has become the largest chemical producer, while European chemical production faces challenges due to high energy costs [31][33]. - The restructuring of supply chains due to tariff disturbances is prompting companies to adapt, with a focus on overseas expansion for leading chemical firms [26][22]. - The anti-involution policies are expected to enhance industry cash flow and promote sustainable development by curbing disorderly expansion and prioritizing profitability [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first week of 2026, the bond market experienced significant adjustments. The main reasons were that the central bank's open - market bond purchases in December 2025 were only 50 billion yuan, not increasing as expected, and the stock market had a strong start, causing funds to flow from the bond market to the stock market. The "stock - bond seesaw" effect was the more important factor suppressing the bond market. It is expected that the allocation funds in the bond market will be diverted by the stock market. In the next week, the release of December's financial data is expected to have limited impact on the bond market. Short - term interest rates will remain stable, while long - term interest rates are more affected by the stock market, and the yield curve is expected to steepen. When the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches the 1.9% stage high, investors can enter the market at an appropriate time [1][16][17] - Last week, gold in the cross - year market quickly rebounded to the previous high of $4,500 per ounce after a short - term plunge and is about to break through the previous high. The RMB exchange rate also had a short - term correction, but based on the expectation of loose fiscal and monetary policies in major global economies and their higher tendency of fiscal deficit monetization than China, the previous bullish view is continued. Crude oil is marginally bullish in terms of total demand and short - term bullish but long - term bearish in terms of total supply, and is expected to maintain a low - level volatile pattern [2] - In the medium - term thinking framework, the two - sector model of "an overheated technology sector + a cold traditional sector" should be continued. The growth engine shows structural characteristics, with monetary policy supporting the traditional sector and fiscal policy guiding the technology sector. The driving force of investment is greater than that of consumption, and domestic demand is more important than external demand, which is not limited to specific transitional economies [2][20] - The US unemployment rate in December 2026 slightly decreased, but new employment was lower than expected. The number of non - farm payrolls also decreased, and the labor market is gradually entering a low - speed equilibrium stage, which makes the Fed more inclined to maintain the current interest rate level. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is 24.4%, which is relatively low [4][21][26] Summary According to the Directory 1. One - Week Viewpoints - **Analysis of bond market adjustment in the first week of 2026**: From December 31, 2025, to January 9, 2026, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond rose 1.8bp. Through daily analysis, factors such as the relaxation of bond fund redemption fee regulations, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect, the central bank's bond - buying volume, and market expectations all affected the bond market. The main reasons for the bond market adjustment were the central bank's bond - buying volume in December 2025 not meeting expectations and the strong start of the stock market [1][11][16] - **Analysis of future trends**: The release of December's financial data is expected to have limited impact on the bond market. Short - term interest rates will remain stable, long - term interest rates are more affected by the stock market, and the yield curve is expected to steepen. When the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches 1.9%, investors can enter the market [1][16][17] 2. Summary of Domestic and Foreign Data 2.1 Liquidity Tracking - **Open - market operations**: From January 5 to 9, 2026, the net investment in open - market operations showed a large - scale net withdrawal in the early stage and a net investment in the later stage. The total amount of net investment was - 122.14 billion yuan [36] - **Interest rate data**: The money market interest rate decreased last week compared with the previous week. The issuance volume of interest - rate bonds last week was 918.813 billion yuan, and the total repayment amount was 697.556 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 221.257 billion yuan [37][38][41] 2.2 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Commodity price data**: Steel prices generally rose, and the official prices of LME non - ferrous metal futures all increased. The price of rebar rose by 17 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled coils rose by 20 yuan/ton. The prices of zinc, lead, copper, and aluminum futures all increased to varying degrees [55] 3. One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Issuance scale and type**: Last week, 26 local government bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 117.664 billion yuan, including 29.23 billion yuan of refinancing bonds, 87.434 billion yuan of new special bonds, and 1 billion yuan of new general bonds. The net financing amount was 117.664 billion yuan, mainly invested in comprehensive projects [65] - **Issuing regions**: Three provinces and cities issued local government bonds, and two provinces and cities issued local special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts, with a total issuance amount of 29.23 billion yuan. From January 1 to last week, the total amount of local special refinancing special bonds issued nationwide was 2,202.521 billion yuan [69] - **Early redemption of urban investment bonds**: The total early redemption scale of urban investment bonds last week was 1.33 billion yuan, from Zhejiang and Gansu provinces. From November 15, 2024, to last week, the total early redemption scale of urban investment bonds nationwide was 118.207 billion yuan, with Chongqing having the highest redemption scale [75][79] 3.2 Secondary Market Overview - **Transaction volume and turnover rate**: The stock of local government bonds last week was 54.73 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 310.211 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.57%. The top three provinces in terms of trading activity were Shandong, Guangdong, and Jiangsu, and the top three trading - active maturities were 30Y, 10Y, and 7Y [82] - **Yield to maturity**: The yield to maturity of local government bonds decreased across the board last week [87] 3.3 Local Government Bond Issuance Plan for this Month - Not elaborated in detail, only a chart of the issuance plan is provided [88] 4. One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Total issuance and net financing amount**: Last week, 336 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 269.892 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 138.743 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 131.149 billion yuan, an increase of 192.849 billion yuan compared with the previous week [88] - **Issuance by type**: The net financing amount of urban investment bonds was 28.226 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 102.923 billion yuan. By bond type, the net financing amount of short - term financing bills was 38.817 billion yuan, that of medium - term notes was 47.129 billion yuan, that of enterprise bonds was - 2.881 billion yuan, that of corporate bonds was 45.019 billion yuan, and that of private placement notes was 3.065 billion yuan [90][93] 4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The actual issuance interest rates of short - term financing bills decreased by 4.43bp, those of medium - term notes increased by 11.93bp, and those of corporate bonds decreased by 58.69bp [103] 4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - The total trading volume of credit bonds last week was 558.53 billion yuan, with short - term financing bills having a trading volume of 159.816 billion yuan, medium - term notes having a trading volume of 294.315 billion yuan, enterprise bonds having a trading volume of 11.128 billion yuan, corporate bonds having a trading volume of 38.844 billion yuan, and private placement notes having a trading volume of 54.428 billion yuan [103] 4.4 Yield to Maturity - The yield to maturity of state - owned development bonds increased across the board. The yields of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, the yields of enterprise bonds generally increased, and the yields of urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [104][105][106] 4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes narrowed across the board, the credit spreads of enterprise bonds generally showed a differentiated trend, and the credit spreads of urban investment bonds narrowed across the board [108][109][113] 4.6 Grade Spreads - The grade spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, the grade spreads of enterprise bonds showed a differentiated trend, and the grade spreads of urban investment bonds narrowed across the board [115][119][123] 4.7 Trading Activity - The most actively traded credit bonds last week were mainly from large - scale enterprises such as Yili and Huijin. The industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, followed by public utilities, finance, daily consumption, and materials [127] 4.8 Issuer's Rating Changes - Not elaborated in detail, only a table of issuer's rating or outlook improvement is provided [128]