"固收+"机遇占优，三维策略把握机会 基于整体判断，祝松表示，2026年"固收+"将呈现机遇大于挑战的格局：一是权益（含可转债）资产表 现有望优于债券，为产品带来增厚收益空间；二是当前A股整体PB估值处于历史中低水平，较海外市场 具备明显估值优势；三是居民资产配置结构存在优化空间，当前资金仍集中于储蓄存款、纯债类产品， 随着权益市场赚钱效应显现，有望加速流入权益类资产；四是"固收+"产品能够在一定程度上平衡风险 与收益，成为普通投资者参与权益市场的优质工具。 2026年作为"十五五"规划的开局之年，宏观经济与市场走势备受关注。鹏华基金债券投资一部总经理、 拥有18年公募投资经验的基金经理祝松，基于宏观研判与实战积累，对新年市场及"固收+"策略作出深 入分析。他指出，2026年"固收+"领域机遇整体大于挑战，关键在于把握权益资产的结构性机会，重点 关注下行风险有限、上行弹性较足的板块，例如周期领域的金融、建筑、建材、化工，部分消费细分赛 道，以及受益于"反内卷"政策支持的新能源等方向。 消费与投资双轮驱动，关注外部与地产风险 祝松认为，2026年国内宏观经济增长的核心支撑将来自消费增长与投资企稳。消费端，自20 ...

中富通公告，预计2025年度净利润为1900万元至2850万元，上年同期为净亏损1.23亿元。报告期内，公 司进一步整合区域业务资源，优化人力、设备等成本结构，整体资源利用效率显著提升；同时，随着国 家反内卷政策的施行，行业内非理性价格竞争得到有效缓解，市场竞争环境持续改善，推动公司整体毛 利率同比上升。 ...

Group 1: Industry Performance - The chemical industry index increased by 37.80% in 2025, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 by 17.44 and 16.05 percentage points, respectively[12] - The revenue of the chemical industry reached 17,133 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.61%[15] - The net profit for the same period was 1,098 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.36%[15] Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Policy Impact - Capital expenditure in the basic chemical sector was 1597.25 billion yuan in Q3 2025, down 8.07% year-on-year[15] - The "anti-involution" policy has led to a recovery in industry conditions, with the capacity utilization rate for polyester filament reaching 90.86%, a historically high level[44] - The government has implemented measures to regulate market competition, leading to a significant increase in industry concentration, with the top 10 companies in the civil explosives sector holding a market share of 62.5% in 2024[56] Group 3: Sector-Specific Developments - The demand for humanoid robots has driven the rise of the specialty plastics industry, with PEEK materials becoming a core beneficiary, valued at approximately 1,367 to 4,102 yuan per robot[7] - The civil explosives industry is benefiting from the dual drivers of western development and overseas expansion, with significant projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project stimulating demand[57] - The coal industry remains a critical component of the energy system, with coal production reaching a historical peak of 4.78 billion tons in 2024, directly boosting demand for civil explosive products[59]

Core Insights - The article discusses the growing popularity of ETFs due to their trading convenience, transparency, and low fees, leading to a diverse range of products that cater to various asset allocation needs [1] - In 2026, the macroeconomic environment is expected to be favorable for A-share corporate earnings, with a moderate recovery anticipated, presenting mid-term allocation value and structural investment opportunities in the equity market [1] - Key investment themes for 2026 include the resonance of the 14th Five-Year Plan with the AI industry wave and the positive impact of "anti-involution" policies on midstream manufacturing profits [2] Investment Strategies - A balanced allocation between stocks and bonds is suggested as a strategy to navigate market volatility in 2026, with the A-share dividend yield and ten-year government bond yield spread indicating a historical average attractiveness of equities [3] - The recommendation includes a core-satellite approach, focusing on high-quality broad-based assets while dynamically capturing key industry and thematic opportunities to enhance portfolio resilience [3] ETF Business Development - The company has been actively exploring and practicing in the ETF business, creating a comprehensive product line that includes broad-based, bond, industry, thematic, and Smart Beta ETFs [4] - A systematic and dynamic service framework has been established to meet various investment needs, including platforms for institutional empowerment and personal investment services [4] - The use of ETF options to construct diversified alternative strategies aims to reduce volatility and enhance the holding experience for medium to long-term capital allocation [4]

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a "performance verification period," shifting from a liquidity-driven valuation expansion to a focus on companies with real profits and orders [3] - The external environment is changing, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate path stabilizing, making RMB assets an attractive option for global diversification [4] - Long-term industry trends, such as AI development, global technology cycles, and domestic supply-side optimization policies, are forming a solid foundation for the market's mid-term outlook [4] Group 2 - The recommended asset allocation focuses on technology and cyclical sectors, with technology being driven by the ongoing global AI trend and its transition from training to real-world applications [5] - In the cyclical sector, there is a suggestion to consider non-ferrous metals and securities, with expectations of price increases driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and improving fundamentals [5][6] - Three reinforcing logics include the rigid supply of key resources, rising macro hedging demand for precious metals, and the strategic importance of resource security in national policy [6][7][8] Group 3 - For balanced asset allocation, broad-based indices like the CSI A500 and the Growth Enterprise Market Index are recommended, along with defensive assets suitable for long-term holdings [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant divergence in performance among various sectors in the Chinese stock market during Q4 2025, with technology and growth sectors like AI computing and semiconductors outperforming traditional sectors such as real estate and pharmaceuticals [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In Q4 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.22%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.23%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.08%. The Hang Seng Index dropped by 4.56%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 6.72% [1]. Fund Manager Strategies - Star fund managers like Fu Pengbo and Li Xiaoxing achieved significant excess returns, with Fu's Ruiyuan Growth Value Fund and Li's Yinhua Small Cap Select both rising over 60% in 2025, driven by heavy investments in AI computing and semiconductors [1][2]. - Balanced allocation funds, such as Zhu Shaoxing's Fuguo Tianhui Select Growth A, showed stable performance with over 20% annual growth, benefiting from diversified holdings across multiple sectors [2][12]. Technology Growth Focus - Funds focusing on technology growth, like those managed by Fu Pengbo and Xie Zhiyu, saw rewards for their strategies, with increased allocations to data center cooling, storage, and computing-related companies [4][5]. - Li Xiaoxing emphasized AI as a key investment theme, with a strong focus on semiconductor companies, indicating a shift towards domestic advanced processes and military-civilian integration opportunities [6]. Traditional Value Sector - Fund managers like Zhang Kun and Liu Yanhun maintained positions in traditional sectors like consumer goods and pharmaceuticals, facing significant net value pressure in Q4 2025. Liu's fund saw a decline of 5.85% in Q4, while Zhang's fund remained stable but adjusted sector allocations [8][10]. - Despite challenges, the pharmaceutical sector showed signs of improvement due to policy changes and innovation, with opportunities emerging in innovative drug chains and medical devices [9][10]. Consensus Among Fund Managers - Despite differing investment styles, fund managers shared common views on the impact of "anti-involution" policies on corporate fundamentals and the relative attractiveness of equity assets in the current market environment [16][17]. - The importance of stock selection has increased significantly, with a focus on identifying core companies with competitive advantages in both growth and value sectors [17].

万华化学 20260128 摘要 万华化学经历产品价格周期性波动，股价随 MDI、TDI 价格先涨后跌。 2022 年后，受产能过剩和需求疲软影响，股价下跌，中美冲突加剧进 一步施压，2024 年触底。目前公司处于景气度底部，等待反弹，量增 显著，估值和基本面提供较好布局时机。 欧盟竞争对手如巴斯夫、科思创等受俄乌冲突影响，能源成本上升导致 盈利压力增大，化工产能退出约 5%，且短期内难以好转。这对万华化 学构成利好，有助于其提升市场份额和盈利能力。 国内行业投资缩减，资本开支增速转负。"反内卷"政策和"双碳"政 策有望控制产能，提升行业景气度。MDI 需求受益于发展中国家经济增 长和发达国家结构性需求，以及国内家电补贴政策和新兴应用领域。 美国和欧盟降息有望促进房地产市场复苏，从而带动 MDI 需求增长。全 球 MDI 市场寡头垄断，新增产能主要集中在万华化学，公司策略转向利 润获取，供应端管控有望推动 2026 年价格反转。 万华化学 MDI 产能接近 400 万吨，年产量约 300 万吨，MDI 价格向上 弹性大，盈利和市值空间可观。行业准入门槛高，万华 MDA 工艺领先， 若巨 MDA 和纯 MDA ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 2026 年 1 月 29 日 顺周期板块后续表现或仍值得期待 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 当前大宗商品的轮动行情契合"避险资产、工业需求、能源传导、民生终端" 的路径。2025 年至今，贵金属率先开启牛市，成为周期行情的先行者；随后工业 金属接棒，铜价创下历史新高，碳酸锂上演 V 型反转，背后是新能源、AI 算力等 新兴产业的刚性需求与供给端约束的共振。如今有色板块的上涨，正是这一轮动 逻辑的中期演绎，而按照传导顺序，能源化工与煤炭或将承接行情扩散。 在全球流动性宽松预期下，随着反内卷政策持续推进，国内稳增长政策持续 发力，经济供需格局有望改善，复苏预期强化，直接利好对经济敏感的板块，后 续经济数据（如 PPI）若持续改善，将验证复苏逻辑，驱动顺周期板块上行。可 逢低关注稀土、化工、煤炭、有色金属、基建、地产等板块，周期板块后续表现 或仍值得期待。 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 请务必阅读最后一页的免责条款 1 金 点 策 略 晨 报 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 周三晨报提醒，依托上证 50 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by macroeconomic policies and structural changes in supply and demand, with the sector leading among 31 A-share sub-industries [22][6] - The chemical sector also shows significant growth, with the chemical ETF reaching a new high since July 2022, supported by policy constraints on high-energy and high-carbon emission industries [8][22] Market Overview - As of January 28, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index have respective ten-year price-to-earnings ratio percentiles of 99.88%, 93.66%, and 50.51% [1] - The market temperature gauge indicates a bullish sentiment with a 75% threshold [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a significant inflow of capital, totaling 32.53 billion, while the banking and communication sectors also attracted substantial investments [16] - The top-performing sectors on January 28, 2026, included non-ferrous metals (+5.92%), coal (+3.54%), and oil and petrochemicals (+3.42%) [16] ETF Performance - The non-ferrous ETF (159876) surged by 6.95%, marking a historical high, and has attracted over 1.4 billion in net inflows over the past 20 days [22][19] - The chemical ETF (516020) increased by 2.48%, continuing its upward trend [22][8] Future Outlook - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to maintain its strong performance due to emerging demands in AI and renewable energy, alongside domestic policies aimed at regulating industry competition [22][6] - The chemical sector is anticipated to benefit from the expansion of the carbon trading market and the implementation of carbon quota systems, which may reshape cost structures and accelerate the elimination of outdated capacities [8][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including macro - finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals, agriculture, and energy - chemical. It presents trend judgments and trading strategies for different futures products based on fundamental and technical indicators, as well as macro - economic and geopolitical factors. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Based on Fundamental and Technical Indicators 3.1.1 Fundamental Indicators - Trend空头: Eggs, zinc, etc. [4] - Oscillation with a bearish bias: Red dates, Shanghai Composite 50 Index Futures, etc. [4] - Oscillation: PVC, sugar, etc. [4] - Oscillation with a bullish bias: White sugar, five - year treasury bond futures, etc. [4] - Trend bullish: Cotton, ten - year treasury bond futures, etc. [4] 3.1.2 Technical Indicators - Bearish: PTA, soybean meal No.2, etc. [6] - Oscillation: Rebar, coking coal, etc. [6] - Bullish: Manganese silicon, hot - rolled coil, etc. [6] 3.2 Macro - economic News - Trump threatened Iran again, and Iran was on high alert [8]. - The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%, and there was uncertainty in the economic outlook [8]. - There was news about changes in quantitative stock trading rules, but no relevant requirements were received by private equity funds [8]. - By the end of 2025, the total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.89 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power growing significantly [9]. - Some real - estate enterprises were no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators, but troubled enterprises still had reporting obligations [9]. - The Bank of Japan might continue to raise interest rates if the outlook was in line with expectations [9]. - Futures exchanges tightened risk - control measures, such as adjusting margin levels and price limits [9]. 3.3 Macro - finance 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - The upward trend of IC/IM may continue, and trend - following strategies are recommended. The A - share market was volatile, with resource stocks rising and the photovoltaic industry chain adjusting. The market turnover increased, and small - and medium - cap stocks outperformed large - cap stocks [11]. 3.3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market sentiment improved, and the short - term rebound trend may continue. The capital market became looser, and the central bank's medium - term liquidity injection increased, indicating a shift towards a looser monetary policy [12]. 3.4 Black Commodities 3.4.1 Coal and Coking - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate in the short term. Coal mine production increased slightly, and the first round of coke price increase was basically implemented. However, the coking profit shrank, and the supply - demand contradiction may improve during the Spring Festival [13][14]. 3.4.2 Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, there was a small supply gap before the daily production in the main production areas increased significantly, and it was recommended to go long on dips. For manganese silicon, it was recommended to hold short positions from previous highs and not to enter new positions unilaterally [15]. 3.4.3 Soda Ash and Glass - It was recommended to wait and see. The supply of soda ash was at a high level, and there was an expected increase in new capacity. The market expected the glass supply to resume production. The supply - demand contradiction in soda ash was difficult to reverse, and the inventory of glass needed to be digested [16]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.5.1 Zinc - The zinc price was still strong, but it might be affected by the possible decline of precious metals. It was recommended to wait and see or re - enter short positions. The domestic zinc inventory decreased, but the downstream demand was weak [18][19]. 3.5.2 Lead - It was recommended to wait and see and hold previous short positions. The lead inventory increased, and the price continued to decline. The production of secondary lead enterprises decreased, and the downstream demand was limited [19][21]. 3.5.3 Lithium Carbonate - After a short - term correction, the price center of lithium carbonate may still rise, with wide - range oscillations. The demand increased, and the supply was disturbed, but market supervision was strict [22]. 3.5.4 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon may run strongly in the short term but was pressured by the pessimistic outlook. It was recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options after a rebound. Polysilicon was under strict position limits and was expected to oscillate. It was necessary to wait for the guidance of the industry meeting [23]. 3.6 Agricultural Products 3.6.1 Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton entered a high - level and strong consolidation state. It was recommended to conduct short - term trading. The short - term supply was loose, but the long - term supply was expected to shrink. The USDA report was positive, and Brazilian cotton production decreased [25][26]. 3.6.2 Sugar - Domestic sugar was under pressure from supply and weak demand. It was recommended to conduct short - term trading in the low - level range. The global sugar supply surplus was still a concern, and the domestic supply pressure increased during the seasonal production period [27][28]. 3.6.3 Eggs - The spot price of eggs may weaken before the Spring Festival. It was recommended to have a bearish view on the main 03 contract. The egg - laying hen inventory was high, but it was expected to decline. The far - month contracts may be weaker due to increased replenishment [29][30]. 3.6.4 Apples - The apple futures price may run strongly. The apple出库 was slightly lower year - on - year, and the sales area market had stable demand and higher prices. The Spring Festival stocking continued, and the high - quality apple prices remained firm [31][32]. 3.6.5 Corn - The corn futures price was highly controversial. It was recommended to focus on the port collection situation and conduct short - term trading. The spot price was stable, and the price was supported by pre - festival replenishment but was restricted by policy grain release and future import substitution [32]. 3.6.6 Red Dates - It was necessary to closely monitor the market performance during the consumption peak season. The red dates market was expected to oscillate weakly. The new - season red dates had price and quality advantages, but the consumption growth was limited [33]. 3.6.7 Pigs - The supply and demand of pigs both increased, and the spot market had intense competition. It was recommended to pay attention to the impact of weight reduction before the Spring Festival on the spot price and look for opportunities to go short on the near - month contracts [34]. 3.7 Energy - Chemical 3.7.1 Crude Oil - The US pressure on Iran continued, and the supply - surplus problem was still severe. The geopolitical premium was high. The US EIA crude oil inventory decreased, and the international oil price rose [36]. 3.7.2 Fuel Oil - The fuel oil price was mainly affected by the geopolitical situation and the oil price. The supply - demand situation improved marginally, and the price would follow the oil price [37]. 3.7.3 Plastics - Polyolefins had large supply pressure and weak downstream demand. The upstream was in a loss state, and the price may rebound slightly but with limited space. It was necessary to prevent a callback [38]. 3.7.4 Rubber - The rubber price may be supported by pre - festival downstream replenishment and the upcoming off - season in overseas production areas. It was recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on dips and pay attention to the spread between natural and synthetic rubber [39]. 3.7.5 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber may maintain a strong trend due to the expected tight supply of butadiene in the first half of the year. It was recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the narrowing spread with natural rubber [40]. 3.7.6 Methanol - The methanol supply - demand situation improved slightly in the long term, but there was still a risk of inventory accumulation in the short term. The price may decline slightly after the geopolitical situation eased. It was recommended to reduce long positions temporarily [41]. 3.7.7 Caustic Soda - The caustic soda production was at a high level, and the profit of chlor - alkali enterprises was poor. The far - month contracts could be considered from a bullish perspective [42]. 3.7.8 Asphalt - The asphalt price followed the oil price and may oscillate strongly in the short term. It was necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation and the change of raw material premium [43]. 3.7.9 PVC - The recent rise of PVC was due to the expected policy of capacity reduction and increased exports. However, the core supply - demand contradiction remained. It was necessary to prevent a callback [44][45]. 3.7.10 Polyester Industry Chain - The near - end fundamentals of the polyester chain were weak due to the seasonal off - season, but the cost support limited the downward space. It was recommended to go long on dips or conduct positive spreads between May and September contracts [46]. 3.7.11 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The LPG price increased due to the high import cost. It may run strongly in the short term but was recommended to be observed. In the long - term, it was advisable to go short on highs [47]. 3.7.12 Pulp - The pulp market had intense long - short competition, and the price may oscillate. The spot market trading was weak, but the price was supported by the expected stable fundamentals and the high overseas prices [48]. 3.7.13 Logs - The fundamentals of logs were strong, and the spot price was stable. The finished product price increased due to the rising raw material cost. The market was expected to maintain a supply - demand balance [49]. 3.7.14 Urea - The urea futures market was expected to oscillate strongly. The spot price rose, and the futures market was affected by other related futures and geopolitical risks [50][51].