市场走势 资料来源：最闻 国内市场主要指数 研究早观点 2025 年 12 月 2 日 星期二 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,914.01 | 0.65 | | 深证成指 | | 13,146.72 | 1.25 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,576.49 | 1.10 | | 中小板指 | | 8,008.75 | 1.40 | | 创业板指 | | 3,092.50 | 1.31 | | 科创 | 50 | 1,336.76 | 0.72 | | 资料来源：最闻 | | | | 分析师： 彭皓辰 执业登记编码：S0760525060001 邮箱：penghaochen@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【行业评论】煤炭：煤炭进口数据拆解：25 年 10 月进口环比收缩 【山证纺服】波司登 26 财年中期业绩点评-品牌羽绒服板块引领营收 稳健增长，库存周转速度显著提升 【公司评论】壶化股份(003002.SZ)：深度报告-山西民爆龙头，西部项 目引领发展新征程 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后股 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, and the supply - demand tightness persists. It continues to lead the trend of new energy metals. In the short - term, after the negative impact on investor sentiment, the price stops falling and rebounds. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus is expected to narrow, and the annual supply - demand inflection point may appear earlier [2]. - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak, and the silicon price fluctuates in a range. The supply is affected by the dry season in the southwest and potential environmental protection and power - limit factors in the north, while the demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is weakening [6]. - The policy expectation for polysilicon is rising again, and the price fluctuates at a high level. The supply is shrinking due to the dry season, and the "anti - involution" policy is expected to have an impact. The demand is weakening in November [7][9]. - The supply - demand gap of lithium carbonate is slightly improved, and the lithium price fluctuates at a high level. The supply is expected to remain strong, the demand is better than in previous years, and the inventory is being depleted. The short - term supply - demand is in tight balance [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis**: The spot price is stable, the inventory is under pressure to accumulate, the production in November decreased, the export in October decreased, the photovoltaic new - installed capacity in October increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and the organic silicon industry may enter a production - cut and price - support stage [6]. - **Main Logic**: The supply in the southwest is expected to decline slightly in December, and the demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is weakening. The inventory is high, and attention should be paid to the progress of new warehouse receipt registration [6]. - **Outlook**: If the organic silicon industry cuts production, the demand will further weaken, and the inventory - accumulation pressure may increase. The price is expected to fluctuate [6][7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Information Analysis**: The transaction price of N - type re - feeding materials is stable, the warehouse receipt quantity has increased slightly, the export and import volumes have decreased, the photovoltaic new - installed capacity from January to October increased year - on - year, and the industry association is promoting "anti - involution" work [7]. - **Main Logic**: The policy expectation is rising, the warehouse receipt quantity is low, providing support for near - month contracts. The supply is shrinking in the dry season, and the demand is weakening in November. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [7][9]. - **Outlook**: The "anti - involution" policy can boost the price, but the actual demand is weak, so the price is expected to fluctuate widely [9]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis**: On December 1st, the closing price of the main contract increased, the total position increased, the spot price increased, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased [9][10]. - **Main Logic**: The supply is expected to remain strong, the demand is better than in previous years, and the inventory is being depleted. The short - term supply - demand is in tight balance, and the resumption of production of Jiaxiawo is a key factor [11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in tight balance, but the sentiment has cooled down, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [11]. 3.2 Market Monitoring The report only lists the sub - items of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate in the market monitoring section but does not provide specific content. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, special index, and plate index of CITIC Futures show different degrees of increase. The comprehensive index includes the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index, and PPI commodity index, with increases of 0.76%, 1.09%, 0.74%, and 1.26% respectively. The new energy commodity index has a daily increase of 0.91%, a 5 - day increase of 1.94%, a 1 - month increase of 7.96%, and a year - to - date increase of 11.19% [53][54].

Group 1 - The report indicates that in November, most bond varieties experienced a rise in yields, with all interest rate bonds showing a slight increase in yield [2][6] - Long-term low-grade credit bonds saw a decline in yields, with the 5-year AA- credit bond yield decreasing by 16 basis points [17][18] - The report highlights a rebound in default amounts in November, totaling 7.75 billion yuan, which is an increase from the previous month [27] Group 2 - The overseas economic outlook shows a stabilization in US inflation expectations, while economic conditions in Europe and Japan are improving [40][35] - Domestic economic growth in China showed a significant slowdown in October, with GDP growth dropping to 4.2%, down 1.1 percentage points from September [2][56] - The report notes that the high-frequency macro diffusion index for November indicates that domestic economic growth momentum remains weak [74][79] Group 3 - The monetary policy outlook suggests a low probability of interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, as the central bank has engaged in net absorption in the open market [93][104] - The report emphasizes a shift from "disconnected stock and bond markets" to a scenario where they are more aligned, driven by macroeconomic factors [106][111] - The bond market is expected to experience low-level fluctuations, with a continued decline in government bond financing growth anticipated for the fourth quarter [2][92]

Group 1: U.S. Macro Strategy - The U.S. job market shows signs of stabilization, with initial jobless claims falling to 216,000, below seasonal levels, and continuing claims at 1.96 million, indicating a steady high level [2] - Market optimism regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts is rising, with expectations for a December rate cut supported by recent comments from voting members [2][3] - The dollar is facing downward pressure due to the return of rate cut trading and potential changes in Fed leadership, with expectations that it will remain within the 96-101 range [3] Group 2: Chinese Macro Strategy - The manufacturing PMI for November is at 49.2%, indicating a slight increase, while the non-manufacturing index shows a decline, particularly in the service sector [6] - Real estate transactions continue to decline, with new home sales down 31.7% and second-hand home sales down 14.8% in major cities [6] - Industrial profits have turned negative, with a year-on-year decline of 5.5%, reflecting weak recovery momentum and significant fluctuations in profit growth [8] Group 3: Policy and Market Outlook - A new policy document aimed at enhancing consumer goods supply and demand compatibility has been issued, targeting significant growth in specific sectors by 2027 and 2030 [9] - The central bank is expected to maintain liquidity support through increased MLF and reverse repos, indicating a focus on long-term liquidity [10] - The bond market is experiencing volatility, with a slight increase in 10-year treasury yields, but expectations of a stable interest rate environment due to weak economic data [11][12] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - The A-share market saw a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.4% and the ChiNext Index up 4.5%, driven by renewed Fed rate cut expectations [12] - The Hong Kong stock market also rebounded, with the Hang Seng Index up 2.5%, supported by similar factors as the A-share market [13] - The technology sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, benefiting from liquidity expectations and the ongoing AI wave [13]

基础化工 分析师：顾敏豪 登记编码：S0730512100001 gumh00@ccnew.com 021-50586308 行业逐步进入景气阶段，从供给与需求两 端寻找投资机会 ——基础化工行业年度策略 证券研究报告-行业年度策略 同步大市(维持) 基础化工相对沪深 300 指数表现 相关报告 《基础化工行业深度分析：前三季度盈利增速 提升，行业延续底部复苏 》 2025-11-21 《基础化工行业月报：行业反内卷整治继续深 入，关注相关受益行业》 2025-11-17 《基础化工行业月报：石化化工行业稳增长工 作方案出台，推动行业进一步提质升级》 2025-10-15 联系人：李智 投资要点： | 1. 2025 年化工行业回顾 | 4 | | --- | --- | | 1.1. 行业景气底部运行，盈利能力阶段性回落 4 | | | 1.2. 基础化工行业上市公司财报分析：行业复苏态势延续 5 | | | 1.3. 化工行业二级市场表现：2025 年以来大幅跑赢市场 10 | | | 2. 2026 年化工行业展望 | 11 | | 2.1. 固定资产投资逐步下行，行业供给格局有望修复 11 | | | ...

山西证券主要观点如下： 进口煤量收缩趋势继续放缓，进口价上涨 进口量方面，1-10月累计增速实现-11.0%，累计进口煤量仍然呈现收缩趋势;进口煤当月同比连续8个月 保持负增速，但同比负增速持续边际放缓，其中10月进口煤同比降9.75%、环比降9.26%。分煤种来 看，四大煤种均呈现环比负增，其中动力煤和褐煤环比减量较大。动力煤环比减量主要是因为蒙古和印 尼进口量减少;炼焦煤环比减量主要由蒙古贡献;褐煤环比减量主要由印度尼西亚贡献;无烟煤环比减量主 要来自俄罗斯。价格方面，10月当月全煤种进口价格实现71美元/吨，维持同比回落趋势，10月当月环 比增3.65美元/吨。分煤种看，全煤种进口价格较去年同期均有较大幅度下降，10月当月各煤种价格均 环比增加，其中动力煤和炼焦煤环比涨幅相对更大。 如何理解10月国内煤价超预期上涨但进口煤量却环比下降? 从10月进口结构上看，动力煤和褐煤环比减量较大，而背后主要反映外蒙古和印尼这两个国家的减量， 其中外蒙古的减量也在炼焦煤进口上有所反映。蒙古煤对华出口减少与运输因素和蒙古国内生产问题有 关。一方面，中国国庆期间中蒙口岸闭关7天，直接减少了有效通关天数;另一方面，10月蒙 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to rise, with the Chemical ETF (516020) showing a maximum intraday increase of 1.89% and closing up 0.76% as of the report [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector include phosphorous chemicals, rubber additives, lithium batteries, and coatings, with notable gains from companies like Hebang Biological, Tongcheng New Materials, and Tinci Materials [1][2] - The Chemical ETF has outperformed major indices this year, with a year-to-date increase of 27.76%, compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 16.02% and the CSI 300 Index's 15.04% [1][3] Group 2 - The lithium battery sector is expected to see a threefold increase in shipments from 2025 to 2035, leading to price increases for lithium hexafluorophosphate, projected to exceed 250,000 yuan per ton by 2026 [4] - The current price-to-book ratio of the Chemical ETF is 2.32, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to the past decade, suggesting a favorable long-term investment opportunity [4] - The Chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap stocks, providing exposure to leading companies in various chemical sub-sectors [5] Group 3 - The chemical industry is currently at a valuation and profit bottom, with net profits of 116 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.45% [9] - Demand is expected to improve due to the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts and stabilization of global political conditions, while cost pressures from oil and coal prices are anticipated to weaken [9] - The chemical sector is poised for a turning point driven by anti-involution policies, with a significant decrease in construction projects expected in the first half of 2025 [9]

其实，中国并没有违反协议中的任何规定，依然在按协议执行，毫无问题。因为协议并没有明确要求中 国不可以涨价。而且，美欧一直在批评中国商品价格过低，认为这导致他们自己产品失去竞争力。那 么，中国按照他们的要求，开始涨价，且是大幅度涨价，这样他们就不能再说中国商品便宜了吧？ 然 而，问题就在于，西方企业习惯了中国的低价高质，现在这一变化让他们难以承受。更严重的是，氧化 钇的价格上涨幅度竟然超过了4400%，你以为这就到头了吗？不，可能这只是中国商品价格全面上涨的 开始。 中美在釜山达成关税协议后，美国总统以为自己赢得了胜利，但其实他背后还在暗中搞小动作，尤其是 挑起一场地缘政治矛盾，试图加剧中国周边的紧张局势。然而，他真以为通过这种方式就能顺利拿到稀 土资源吗？ 实际上，中国一直在严格执行中美在吉隆坡达成的双边协议，并按协议要求执行相关条 款。可是，美国的稀土危机真的就这么解决了吗？ 美国人可能永远也理解不了，中国的战略方法就像是你打你的算盘，我照做我的计划。中国确实放开了 稀土的销售，但是美国又遇到新的麻烦。 中国的稀土开始全面涨价了，尤其是氧化钇的价格飙升了44 倍。这让美国企业惊愕地发现，他们的生产成本就像火 ...

报告摘要 核心观点: 股市有风险 入市需谨慎 2025年11月29日 证券研究报告|策略研究|策略点评 重要政策时间窗口前的布局期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 联系地址：北京市朝阳区望京街道望京东园四区2号楼中航产融大厦 中航证券有限公司 公司网址：www.avicsec.com 联系电话: 010-59219558 传真：010-59562637 证券研究报告 中航证券研究所发布 作者 | 董忠云 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | | SAC 执业证书：S0640515120001 | | | 联系电话：010-59562478 | | | 邮箱：dongzy@avicsec.com | | | 刘庆东 | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书：S0640520030001 | | | 联系电话：010-59219572 | | | 邮箱：liuqd@avicsec.com | | | 王警仪 | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书：S0640525100001 | | | 联系电话: | | | 邮箱：wangjybj@avicsec.com | | | 李博伦 | 分析师 | | SAC 执业 ...

每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：生产利润修复乏力但供给收缩不及预期；地产拖累下游深加工订单偏弱，库存同期历 史高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1004元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1053元/吨，基差为-49元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6236.20万重量箱，较前一周减少1.49%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-12-1 影响因素总结 利多： 1、沙河地区"煤改气" ，行业冷修，产量损失。 利空： 1、地产终端需求依然疲弱，玻璃深加工企业订单 ...