Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and reference views for the TL2509 variety are all "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation weakening". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loosely biased, but the possibility of a short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the financial futures stock index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the domestic macro - economic outlook is positive, with the first - half economic data showing resilience and the second - half pressure on stable growth reduced. There are a large number of central bank reverse repurchases maturing this week, causing market interest rates to rise. Considering the anchoring effect of policy rates, the upward space for market interest rates is limited. A loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, but the short - term possibility is low, and the downward space for interest rates is also limited. So, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation weakening", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loosely biased, but the short - term possibility of an interest rate cut is low [1]. 2. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated and pulled back yesterday, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures having the largest decline. The domestic macro - economic outlook is positive, the first - half economic data shows resilience, and the second - half pressure on stable growth is reduced. There are a large number of central bank reverse repurchases maturing this week, causing market interest rates to rise. Considering the anchoring effect of policy rates, the upward space for market interest rates is limited. A loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, but the short - term possibility is low, and the downward space for interest rates is also limited. So, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate in the short term [5].

2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.01%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约涨0.02%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约涨0.02%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.08%。 国债期货早盘开盘 ...

国债期货日报 2025年7月21日 左侧尝试 观点：交易盘试多，需要带好止损 南华研究院 高翔（Z0016413） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 国债期货跳空低开，T2509低开一毛钱，早盘偏弱震荡，午后小幅上行，跌幅收窄。资金方面，公开市场到 期2262亿，央行新做1707亿，净回笼555亿。流动性有所改善，DR001加权从上周五的1.45%回到1.35%附 近，午后隔夜匿名价格回到1.3%。非银流动性同样充裕，交易所资金价格日内震荡下行，同样回落到1.35% 附近。 日内消息： | TS2509 | 102.416 | 102.434 | -0.018 | 102.378 | TS合约持仓(手） | 122170 | 123247 | -1077 | 34519 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TF2509 | 105.935 | 106.005 | -0.07 | 105.885 | TF合约持仓(手） | 209691 | 206287 | 3404 | 208905 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current core combination of "weak fundamental recovery + low inflation" remains unchanged, and the loose capital situation continues to support the bond market, with limited adjustment space. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of treasury bond futures in the short term and make allocations after stabilization. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices and Volumes**: On July 21, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL主力 contracts decreased by 0.01%, 0.05%, 0.05%, and 0.46% respectively; the trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL主力 contracts were 88,280, 72,060, 31,667, and 118,236 respectively, with increases of 3,602, 700, 91, and 6,587 respectively. [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, and TF09 - T09 showed changes, with TL2512 - 2509 decreasing by 0.05, T2512 - 2509 decreasing by 0.03, and TF09 - T09 remaining unchanged. [2] - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TF, and TL主力 increased by 2,166, 3,892, and 962 respectively, while the position of TS主力 decreased by 1,247. [2] 3.2 CTD Bond Data - The net prices of some CTD bonds such as 220010.IB, 250007.IB, and 240020.IB decreased, with 220010.IB dropping by 0.1004, 250007.IB dropping by 0.0632, and 240020.IB dropping by 0.1193. [2] 3.3 Treasury Bond Active Bond Yields - The yields of 1 - 7Y treasury bonds increased by 0.25 - 1.60bp, while the yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds increased by 1.05bp and 1.50bp respectively, reaching 1.67% and 1.89%. [2] 3.4 Short - term Interest Rates - The silver - pledged overnight rate decreased by 3.99bp to 1.3601%, and the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 9.60bp to 1.3660%. [2] 3.5 Industry News - The central bank is soliciting opinions on canceling the regulation of freezing the collateral for bond repurchase until August 17. [2] - In June, the total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. [2] - The LPR quotes in July remained stable, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR at 3.5%. [2] 3.6 Market Analysis - Domestic: In June, industrial added value and social retail sales slightly rebounded, fixed - asset investment remained stable, and the unemployment rate was flat. Social financing exceeded expectations, credit demand improved marginally, and deposit activation increased. Exports and imports rebounded significantly, but price levels were under pressure. [2] - Overseas: The US core CPI in June was continuously lower than expected, but inflation risks continued to rise. The Fed's internal differences on the impact of tariffs on the inflation path increased, and the possibility of a short - term interest rate cut decreased. [2] 3.7 Key Events to Watch - On July 21 at 22:00, the US June Conference Board Leading Index monthly rate will be released. - On July 23 at 17:15, the Bank of England Governor and other officials will speak at the UK Parliament's Treasury Committee. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of Treasury bond futures generally declined in the previous trading session, with the T2509 contract down 0.09% and little change in open interest. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, presenting no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed movements, and key - term Treasury bond yields also varied. Overseas, US 10Y Treasury bond yields declined, German 10Y yields rose, and Japanese 10Y yields fell. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of Treasury bond futures, but the "anti - involution" policy drives some commodity prices to strengthen, increasing the volatility of Treasury bond futures prices in the short term [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On the previous trading day, for TS2509, the closing price was 102.434, down 0.006 (-0.01%); for TS2512, it was 102.498, down 0.004 (0.00%); for TF2509, 105.990, down 0.055 (-0.05%); for TF2512, 106.050, down 0.065 (-0.06%); for T2509, 108.790, down 0.095 (-0.09%); for T2512, 108.860, down 0.080 (-0.07%); for TL2509, 120.46, down 0.270 (-0.22%); for TL2512, 120.3, down 0.260 (-0.22%) [2] - **Open Interest and Volume**: Open interest for TS2509 was 113080 (down 174), TS2512 was 8999 (down 110), TF2509 was 157810 (up 943), TF2512 was 37446 (up 721), T2509 was 192316 (down 630), T2512 was 37438 (up 270), TL2509 was 115390 (down 1221), TL2512 was 32595 (up 128). Trading volumes were 22678 for TS2509, 1786 for TS2512, 44183 for TF2509, 2983 for TF2512, 51738 for T2509, 5384 for T2512, 72268 for TL2509, and 5564 for TL2512 [2] - **Spread**: The inter - delivery spread for TS was -0.064 (previous value -0.062), TF was -0.060 (previous value -0.070), T was -0.070 (previous value -0.055), and TL was 0.160 (previous value 0.170) [2] - **IRR**: The IRR of active CTD bonds for each contract was between 1.3735% - 1.8005%, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Domestic Treasury Yields**: Yields of key - term domestic Treasury bonds showed mixed movements. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 0.75bp to 1.67%, and the 10 - 2Y yield spread was 26.02bp [2] - **Overseas Treasury Yields**: US 10Y Treasury bond yields fell 3bp, German 10Y yields rose 1bp, and Japanese 10Y yields fell 1.4bp [2] Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On July 18, the central bank conducted 1875 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a rate of 1.4%, with a net injection of 1028 billion yuan. This week, 17268 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, along with 2000 billion yuan of MLF and 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits [3] - **LPR**: The latest LPR will be announced on July 21, and it is widely expected to remain unchanged [3] - **Trade and Policy**: The Ministry of Commerce responded to US and Canadian trade - related measures, emphasizing cooperation and safeguarding Chinese enterprises' rights [3] - **Hydropower Project**: The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project started, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [3] - **Fed**: Fed Governor Waller called for a rate cut in July, and Trump urged the Fed to cut rates. The US July Michigan Consumer Confidence Index reached a five - month high, and the 5 - year inflation expectation hit a five - month low [3] Industry Information - **Money Market Rates**: On July 18, most money market interest rates showed mixed movements, with some rising and some falling [3] - **US Treasury Yields**: US Treasury yields declined across the board, mainly due to Waller's dovish remarks and the decline in inflation expectations [3] Comment and Strategy - The central bank's supportive monetary policy supports Treasury bond futures prices, but the "anti - involution" policy boosts commodity prices, increasing the short - term volatility of Treasury bond futures prices [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, with an overall oscillatory view. The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) in the financial futures stock index sector, the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. Currently, the upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited, in an oscillatory stage. With the central bank's net injection of liquidity and market interest rates close to policy rates, the upside of interest rates is limited. There is an expectation of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, but the short - term possibility is low, so the downside of interest rates is also limited. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly be in an oscillatory arrangement [5]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The time - cycle definition is that short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month. For TL2509, short - term: oscillatory; medium - term: oscillatory; intraday: weakly oscillatory; overall view: oscillatory. The core logic is a loose monetary policy environment with a low short - term possibility of interest rate cuts [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. Last Friday, Treasury bond futures continued to oscillate. The upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. The central bank's net injection of liquidity and market interest rates close to policy rates limit the upside of interest rates. There is an expectation of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, but the short - term possibility is low, limiting the downside of interest rates. Short - term Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of Treasury bond futures is "oscillation." The short - term and medium - term trends of TL2509 are "oscillation," and the intraday trend is "oscillation - weak." For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation - weak," and the medium - term view is "oscillation" [1][5]. - The monetary policy environment is biased towards loosening, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low. In the medium - to - long - term, due to insufficient effective demand in the domestic demand side, a relatively loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. However, due to the overall resilience of the economy in the first half of the year, the policy may be implemented at the end of the third quarter or in the fourth quarter, so the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts is low. With the central bank's net injection of liquidity in the open market and the market interest rate approaching the policy rate, the upward space for interest rates is also limited. Overall, the upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited in the short term, and it is expected to be in an oscillatory consolidation state [1][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2509, the short - term trend is "oscillation," the medium - term trend is "oscillation," the intraday trend is "oscillation - weak," and the overall view is "oscillation." The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is biased towards loosening, but the short - term possibility of interest rate cuts is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation - weak," the medium - term view is "oscillation," and the reference view is "oscillation." The core logic is that Treasury bond futures were in a narrow - range oscillatory consolidation yesterday. In the medium - to - long - term, due to insufficient effective demand in the domestic demand side, a relatively loose monetary environment is needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts. But because of the economic resilience in the first half of the year, the policy implementation node may be at the end of the third quarter or in the fourth quarter, so the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts is low. Meanwhile, with the central bank's net injection of liquidity and the market interest rate approaching the policy rate, the upward space for interest rates is limited. Therefore, the upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited in the short term, and it is expected to be in an oscillatory consolidation state [5].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年7月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230499 投资咨询证号：Z0000990 联系方式：0575-85229759 30年期、10年期、5年期与2年期主力合约行情要素表 | 期货合约 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 日增仓 | CTD券 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T2509 | 108.835 | -0.05% | 5.07万 | 193107 | -2732 | 240013.IB | | TF2509 | 106.000 | -0.01% | 5.08万 | 155563 | -3823 | 240001.IB | | TS2509 | 102.424 | +0.01% | 2.55万 | 113842 | -718 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". Due to recent central bank liquidity injection, the tight liquidity situation has eased. As the bond yield approaches the policy rate, the upward momentum of bond yields is insufficient, limiting the downside of bond futures. With the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, a loose monetary environment is needed in the second half of the year, so there is potential for bond futures to rebound. However, due to the economic resilience in the first half of the year, policy efforts may come in the third or fourth quarter, resulting in low short - term interest rate cut expectations and limited upward momentum for bond futures. Overall, bond futures are expected to oscillate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The central bank's recent net injection of liquidity has alleviated the tight liquidity situation. As the bond yield approaches the policy rate, the upward momentum of bond yields is insufficient, limiting the downside of bond futures. Given the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, a loose monetary environment is needed in the second half of the year, so there is potential for bond futures to rebound. However, due to the economic resilience in the first half of the year, policy efforts may come in the third or fourth quarter, resulting in low short - term interest rate cut expectations and limited upward momentum for bond futures. Overall, bond futures are expected to oscillate in the short term [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current core combination of "weak economic recovery + low inflation" remains unchanged, and the loose liquidity continues, which still provides positive support for the bond market. In the short term, the upside and downside space of yields is limited, and it is expected that Treasury bond futures will continue to fluctuate. Given that there is no directional turn in the policy environment and fundamentals, investors are advised to maintain a certain position [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T, TF, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.05%, 0.01%, and 0.05% respectively, while the TS main contract closing price increased by 0.01%. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts decreased by 1203, 616, 81, and 2014 respectively [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - The spreads of TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509 increased by 0.01, 0.04, and 0.02 respectively, while the spread of TS2512 - 2509 remained unchanged. The spreads of T09 - TL09 remained unchanged, and the spreads of TF09 - T09, TS09 - T09, TS09 - TF09 increased by 0.03, 0.06, and 0.03 respectively [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL decreased by 2732, 3823, 718, and 2238 respectively. Among the top 20 long - positions, T and TS decreased by 1044 and 793 respectively, while TF and TL increased by 603 and 412 respectively. Among the top 20 short - positions, T decreased by 184, TF decreased by 730, TS decreased by 25, and TL increased by 170. The net short - positions of T and TS increased by 860 and 768 respectively, while those of TF and TL decreased by 1333 and 242 respectively [2] 3.4 CTD (Clean Price) - The clean prices of 250007.IB, 240020.IB, 210014.IB decreased by 0.0380, 0.0175, 0.0832 respectively, while the clean prices of 220010.IB, 250006.IB, 240010.IB, 210005.IB increased by 0.0168, 0.0262, 0.0090, 0.0637 respectively [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bond Yields - The yields of 3y, 5y, 7y, 10y decreased by 1.25bp, 1.30bp, 1.65bp, 1.11bp respectively, while the 1y yield remained unchanged [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 17.02bp, while the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 6.90bp. The silver - pledged 7 - day and 14 - day rates decreased by 4.43bp and increased by 2.00bp respectively, and the Shibor 7 - day and 14 - day rates decreased by 4.20bp and 2.00bp respectively [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 520.1 billion yuan and 444.6 billion yuan, and the maturity scale was 75.5 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 - day [2] 3.9 Industry News - In June, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods was 4228.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. In the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 24865.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%, and the fixed - asset investment in June decreased by 0.12% month - on - month. From January to June, the national real estate development investment was 4665.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. In the first half of the year, the total value of China - US imports and exports was 2.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%, among which exports decreased by 9.9% and imports decreased by 7.7%. The China - US trade turned from a year - on - year increase in the first quarter to a year - on - year decrease in the second quarter, with a decline of 20.8% [2] 3.10 Market Performance - On Wednesday, Treasury bond cash bonds showed mixed trends. The yields of 1 - 3Y bonds decreased by about 0.25 - 0.85bp, the yields of 5 - 7Y bonds increased by about 0.50bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds increased by about 0.30bp and 0.50bp respectively. Most Treasury bond futures declined, with the TS main contract rising by 0.01%, and the TF, T, TL main contracts falling by 0.01%, 0.05%, 0.05% respectively [2] 3.11 Domestic Fundamentals - In June, industrial added value and retail sales showed a slight recovery, the scale of fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate remained the same as the previous month. In terms of financial data, social financing increased more than expected, credit demand improved marginally, and the activity of deposits increased. In June, affected by the progress of China - US trade negotiations, imports and exports increased significantly year - on - year. The price level continued to be under pressure, with CPI improving marginally and PPI falling into deflation for 7 consecutive months [2] 3.12 Overseas Situation - In June, the US core CPI was continuously lower than expected, but due to the recent US tariff policy, inflation risks continued to rise. There were greater differences within the Fed regarding the impact of tariffs on the inflation path, but the policy tone remained cautious and wait - and - see, and there was no consensus on the expectation of interest rate cuts [2]