Group 1: Economic Growth and Trade - China's economic growth target for 2025 is set at around 5% [2] - GDP growth rates for the first three quarters were 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8%, with an average of 5.2% [2] - Domestic fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year from January to September [2] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year-on-year during the same period, indicating steady domestic demand [2] - Exports rose by 6.1% year-on-year from January to September, aided by the easing of US-China trade tensions [2][3] Group 2: US-China Trade Relations - A meeting between the US and Chinese leaders on October 30 resulted in the cancellation of a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and a one-year suspension of a 24% tariff [3] - The easing of trade tensions has alleviated market concerns and increased risk appetite, contributing to a rise in the Shanghai Composite Index above 4000 points [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Market Expectations - The necessity for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut has decreased, with the current RRR at 9% [4] - The likelihood of further RRR cuts this year is low due to the current economic conditions and the easing of trade tensions [4] - The central bank has resumed trading in government bonds, which serves as an alternative to RRR cuts for liquidity management [4] - Increased operations in reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF) indicate a compensatory measure for the market [4] - Overall, the expectation of monetary easing is diminishing, leading to a potential decline in government bond futures prices in the fourth quarter [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term view of TL2512 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias". The overall view is "oscillation" as the short - term interest rate cut expectation decreases while the medium - and long - term loose expectation still exists [1]. - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The PMI data in October showed weakening, and the lack of effective domestic demand remains. In the long run, a loose monetary environment is needed, and the central bank's stance provides support for treasury bond futures. However, the short - term need for an overall interest rate cut is not strong, so the short - term upward momentum is insufficient, and the short - term movement range is limited, mainly in oscillation [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and overall view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias". The core logic is the change in interest rate cut expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The driving factors include the weakening of October's manufacturing PMI data, the problem of insufficient domestic demand, the need for a loose monetary environment in the long run, and the low short - term need for an overall interest rate cut [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Treasury Bond Futures Morning Report - November 3, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Dushufang from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] Group 2: Market Conditions Fundamental Analysis - Bank - inter - bond market sentiment is warm, with long - term bonds performing better. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.42%. The 10 - month PMI data led to higher expectations of policy easing in Q4, boosting bond market buying. There is a certain safety cushion for entering the bond market now. The overnight repo rate of deposit - taking institutions rose slightly and stabilized around 1.31%. The yields of secondary perpetual bonds declined by more than 2bp [3]. - On October 31, the People's Bank of China conducted 355.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. After deducting the 168 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due on that day, the net investment was 187.1 billion yuan [3]. Basis Analysis - TS main basis is - 0.0487, indicating the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. TF main basis is - 0.06167, also bearish. T main basis is 0.1238, indicating the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. TL main basis is - 0.0061, bearish [3]. Inventory Analysis - The deliverable bond balances of TS, TF, and T main contracts are 1359.4 billion, 1493.5 billion, and 2359.9 billion respectively, considered neutral [4]. Disk Analysis - TS, TF, and T main contracts are all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. Main Position Analysis - TS main contract has a net long position with an increase in long positions. TF main contract also has a net long position with an increase in long positions. T main contract has a net long position with a decrease in long positions [5]. Expectation Analysis - The central bank has increased the volume of MLF renewals for 8 consecutive months. The October PMI data is below the boom - bust line. In September, CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and decreased 0.3% year - on - year, while core CPI's year - on - year increase has expanded for 5 consecutive months. New social financing in September was slightly lower than the seasonal level. Affected by the "migration of RMB deposits", the M2 growth rate expanded. LPR remained unchanged as expected. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the October FOMC meeting [5]. Group 3: Market Quotes - T2512.CFE: Price is 108.680, up 0.04%, trading volume is 66178, open interest is 242555, with a daily decrease of 2555, and the CTD bond is 220019.IB [8]. - TF2512.CFE: Price is 106.065, down 0.01%, trading volume is 51145, open interest is 149424, with a daily increase of 155, and the CTD bond is 250003.IB [8]. - TS2512.CFE: Price is 102.544, down 0.02%, trading volume is 30841, open interest is 72375, with a daily decrease of 1166, and the CTD bond is 250012.IB [8]. - TL2512.CFE: Price is 116.68, up 0.42%, trading volume is 103750, open interest is 142750, with a daily decrease of 1328, and the CTD bond is 210005.IB [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The yield of treasury bonds has reached a short - term peak, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield at 1.85% may be the top in the future. Treasury bond futures are likely to fluctuate with a slight upward bias in the short term [6][37]. - The overall economic situation in October shows that the manufacturing PMI is below the boom - bust line, the non - manufacturing business activity index is slightly above the boom - bust line, and the real estate market is still at the bottom, which is generally favorable for the bond market [9][24][32]. 3. Summary by Related Content Treasury Bond Futures Market - This week, treasury bond futures rose continuously throughout the week. After the central bank governor announced the resumption of open - market treasury bond trading on October 27, treasury bond futures jumped significantly higher on Tuesday. The 30 - year treasury bond rose 1.43%, the 10 - year treasury bond rose 0.62%, the 5 - year treasury bond rose 0.43%, and the 2 - year treasury bond rose 0.21% [4]. - The yield curve of treasury bond cash bonds shifted downward in parallel. The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields decreased by 9BP, 5BP, 5BP, and 7BP respectively from October 24 to October 31 [6]. Manufacturing PMI - In October, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the seventh consecutive month. Affected by the double - holiday and external factors, the decline was larger than the seasonal factor. The PMI of large, medium, and small enterprises showed different trends, with large enterprises slightly below the boom - bust line, medium - sized enterprises remaining stable, and small enterprises facing greater pressure [9]. - The production index in October was 49.7%, and the new order index was 48.8%, indicating a slowdown in production and a decline in market demand. However, new - energy - related industries such as equipment manufacturing, high - tech manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing remained in the expansion range [12]. - The new export order index in October was 45.9%, and the import index was 46.8%, both showing a decline. It is expected that the new export order index will rebound significantly in November due to the Sino - US summit [14]. - The purchase price index of major raw materials in October was 52.5%, and the ex - factory price index was 47.5%. It is expected that the PPI in October will decline by about 2.3% year - on - year, the same as in September [17]. - The raw material inventory index in October was 47.3%, and the finished product inventory index was 48.1%. Manufacturing enterprises continued to be cautious about increasing inventory [20]. - The manufacturing employment index in October was 48.3%, and the production and business activity expectation index was 52.8%, showing a slight decline in the expectation of future prosperity [22]. Non - manufacturing Business Activity Index - In October, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%. The construction business activity index was 49.1%, and the service business activity index was 50.2%, showing a mild expansion [24]. - The new order index of the construction industry in October was 45.9%, and the employment index was 39.9%. The business activity expectation index was 56.0%, indicating a slight decline in the construction industry's prosperity [27]. - The new order index of the service industry in October was 46.0%, and the employment index was 46.1%. The business activity expectation index was 56.1%. Some industries such as railway transportation and aviation transportation were in a high - level prosperity range, while industries such as insurance and real estate were below the critical point [29]. Real Estate Market - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in October decreased by 25% year - on - year, and the decline widened. The national commercial housing sales are still at the bottom, and it is expected that the real estate development investment in October will still contract significantly, dragging down the construction industry [32]. Capital Market - This week, the short - term capital interest rate first rose and then fell, and the one - year AAA inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate also declined [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views of the Report - The central bank's resumption of Treasury bond trading is expected to inject stable liquidity into the market, significantly boosting bond market sentiment. The positive progress in the new round of Sino-US trade consultations has significantly alleviated the market's concerns about trade policy uncertainties. Looking ahead, the continuous recovery of the economic fundamentals and the implementation of broad fiscal policies still require a low-interest rate environment. The market generally expects the central bank to focus on medium- and short-term bond purchases, which may lead to a continued decline in short-term interest rates and potentially drive down long-term interest rates. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the potential suppression of long-term interest rates due to the recovery of risk appetite. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [102]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year Treasury bond futures' main contracts (TL2512, T2512, TF2512, TS2512) rose by 1.45%, 0.62%, 0.43%, and 0.21% respectively. The trading volumes were 594,400, 377,500, 330,800, and 190,300 contracts respectively. The prices of the top two CTD bonds of each contract also increased [13]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Market Review**: The main contracts of 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year Treasury bond futures all rose this week. The trading volumes and open interests of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all increased [16][22][30]. 2. News Review and Analysis - **Key News Review**: The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, resume open-market Treasury bond trading, and study various policy measures. Five departments issued a plan to promote the improvement of urban commerce. The results of the Sino-US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur were announced, with the US canceling a 10% tariff and suspending some measures. The National Development and Reform Commission plans to allocate 50 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit. Japan plans to invest $550 billion in the US. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and will end balance sheet reduction in December [33][34]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: The spreads between 10-year and 5-year, 10-year and 1-year Treasury bond yields widened. The spreads between the main contracts of 2-year and 5-year, 5-year and 10-year Treasury bond futures widened. The inter - period spreads of 10-year, 30-year, 5-year, and 2-year Treasury bond futures narrowed [40][49][53]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T Treasury bond futures main contract increased significantly [67]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: The 2 - week and 1 - month Shibor rates declined, while the overnight and 1 - week Shibor rates rose. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded slightly. The yields of Treasury bond cash bonds strengthened, with the 1 - 7Y yields falling by about 5 - 11bp, and the 10Y and 30Y yields falling by about 5 and 6bp to 1.79% and 2.15% respectively. The spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields widened slightly [69][74]. - **Open Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 206.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchases, 90 billion yuan in MLF injections, with 70 billion yuan in MLF maturities and 86.72 billion yuan in reverse repurchase maturities, resulting in a net injection of 140.08 billion yuan. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded slightly [79]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 114.2609 billion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 77.9563 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing of 36.3046 billion yuan [83]. - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0880, up 48 basis points this week. The spread between offshore and onshore RMB narrowed. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield fluctuated upward, and the VIX index remained stable. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield declined, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [87][93][98]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic and Overseas Fundamentals**: In China, the manufacturing PMI declined in October, while the non - manufacturing PMI entered the expansion range. The GDP growth rate was stable but slowed down. The economy shows a pattern of "strong production, weak demand" and "strong external demand, weak domestic demand". In the US, inflation was lower than expected, the labor market recovered moderately, the Fed cut interest rates, and the end of balance sheet reduction was announced [101]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position, considering the potential decline in short - term interest rates and the need for a low - interest rate environment, while being vigilant about the potential suppression of long - term interest rates by the recovery of risk appetite [102].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term and medium - term outlook for Treasury bond futures is mainly characterized by consolidation, with limited upside and downside potential. Short - term expectations of interest rate cuts have decreased, but medium - and long - term expectations of a loose monetary policy remain. The market is supported by the need for a loose monetary environment in the long run due to insufficient domestic effective demand, but short - term upward momentum is lacking as the macro - economic data shows strong resilience and the necessity for a full - scale interest rate cut is low [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "sideways", "sideways", and "sideways with a weak bias" respectively, with an overall view of "sideways". The core logic is that short - term expectations of interest rate cuts have decreased while medium - and long - term expectations of a loose policy remain [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties TL, T, TF, and TS have an intraday view of "sideways with a weak bias" and a medium - term view of "sideways", with a reference view of "sideways". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures consolidated yesterday. After the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents, Sino - US economic and trade issues have been substantially eased, reducing uncertainty risks. Domestically, although there is a need for a loose monetary environment in the long run due to insufficient effective demand, the macro - economic data shows strong resilience, making a full - scale interest rate cut less necessary. Therefore, in the short term, Treasury bond futures have limited upside and downside potential and will mainly consolidate [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile, with an overall view of volatility due to a decline in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of medium - to - long - term easing expectations [1]. - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) in the financial futures stock index sector, the intraday view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile. In the long run, due to insufficient effective domestic demand, a relatively loose monetary environment is needed to stabilize the demand side, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, the internal economic data is resilient, and external uncertainties have eased, so there is no strong need for an immediate full - scale interest rate cut, resulting in limited upward momentum for Treasury bond futures. Overall, the short - term upside and downside of Treasury bond futures are limited, and they will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile. The core logic is that short - term interest rate cut expectations have declined, while medium - to - long - term easing expectations still exist [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile. Yesterday, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and closed higher. Macroscopically, due to persistent insufficient effective domestic demand, a relatively loose monetary environment is needed in the long run to stabilize the demand side, strongly supporting Treasury bond futures. However, the internal economic data is resilient, and external uncertainties have eased, reducing the short - term necessity for a full - scale interest rate cut and limiting the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures. In the short term, the upside and downside of Treasury bond futures are limited, and they will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Report's Core View - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's bond - purchasing operations. With the central bank resuming treasury bond trading operations, the bond market may have further upward momentum, and long - bond holders can partially take profits and keep some positions for potential further gains [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Conditions - On Tuesday, all varieties of treasury bond futures opened higher, fluctuated after a rally, and closed up across the board. The end - of - month capital market remained tight, with DR001 at around 1.47%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 475.3 billion yuan, with a net injection of 315.8 billion yuan [1] - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting announcements influenced the bond market. After the central bank governor announced the resumption of treasury bond trading operations, the spot - bond yields dropped sharply after 5 p.m. yesterday. Today, the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds partially recovered from yesterday's decline, while those of other maturities continued to fall [2] 2. Important News - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that the bond market is operating well, and the central bank will resume open - market treasury bond trading operations, explore a mechanism to provide liquidity to non - banking institutions in specific situations, and is studying a one - time personal credit relief policy [2] - Financial Regulatory Administration Director Li Yunze said at the opening ceremony of the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting that efforts will be made to strengthen the capital supply for major projects and promote the expansion and upgrading of consumption [2] 3. Market Expectations - The market expects this round of bond purchases to be a combination of short - term and medium - to - long - term bonds. The central bank's recent liquidity injection methods and the resumption of treasury bond trading may mean that policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be postponed, but it does not prevent the improvement of market expectations [2] 4. Data Comparison | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 28 | 2025 - 10 - 27 | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.47 | 102.382 | 0.088 | | TF2512 | 105.905 | 105.735 | 0.17 | | T2512 | 108.425 | 108.145 | 0.28 | | TL2512 | 116.14 | 115.33 | 0.81 | | TS Contract Position (lots) | 78077 | 76175 | 1902 | | TF Contract Position (lots) | 162038 | 156966 | 5072 | | T Contract Position (lots) | 274231 | 263730 | 10501 | | TL Contract Position (lots) | 185933 | 179404 | 6529 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0023 | 0.0123 | - 0.0146 | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.085 | - 0.0168 | 0.1018 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.1987 | 0.0235 | 0.1752 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.3712 | 0.2081 | 0.1631 | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 39423 | 29975 | 9448 | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 67869 | 58124 | 9745 | | T Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 75068 | 75942 | - 874 | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 123331 | 113706 | 9625 | [3]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 2: Core Views - The short - term view of TL2512 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak oscillation", with an overall view of "oscillation". The core logic is that short - term interest rate cut expectations have declined, while medium - and long - term easing expectations still exist [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "weak oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that although treasury bond futures closed up in an oscillatory manner yesterday, due to the persistent problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, a moderately loose monetary environment is needed in the medium and long term to stabilize the demand side, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, there is no strong need for a comprehensive interest rate cut. With the easing of external uncertainty risks, the warming of domestic policy benefits, and the increasing risk appetite in the stock market, the demand for treasury bonds is suppressed. Overall, the upside and downside space for treasury bond futures is limited in the short term, and they will mainly be in an oscillatory consolidation state [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term is "oscillation", the medium - term is "oscillation", the intraday is "weak oscillation", with an overall view of "oscillation". The core logic is the change in interest rate cut expectations [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Treasury bond futures closed up in an oscillatory manner yesterday. Due to insufficient effective domestic demand, a moderately loose monetary environment is needed in the medium and long term to support treasury bond futures. In the short term, there is no strong need for a comprehensive interest rate cut, and the increasing risk appetite in the stock market suppresses the demand for treasury bonds. So, the short - term movement of treasury bond futures is oscillatory [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests paying attention to capital market sentiment. After today's rise, the prices of long - term varieties are approaching the upper limit of the oscillation range again, and there may not be enough momentum to break through in the short term. It is recommended to take partial profits tomorrow and keep some long positions for observation [1][3]. 3. Content Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review On Monday, bond futures opened lower and rose in the morning, fluctuated in the afternoon, and closed up across the board. Spot bond yields declined across the board. Due to the end of the month, the capital market was tight, and DR001 rose to around 1.45%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 33.73 billion yuan, and MLF was renewed for 90 billion yuan, with a net injection of 34.83 billion yuan [1]. 3.2. Intraday News - China and the US have reached preliminary consensus on properly resolving multiple important economic and trade issues and will proceed with their respective domestic approval procedures [2]. - China and the US have reached a "very substantial framework", laying the foundation for the upcoming China - US leaders' meeting [2]. 3.3. Market Judgment Optimistic news from the weekend's China - US trade negotiations led to a sharp rise in the A - share market today, with the market index approaching 4000 points. Affected by the improved risk sentiment, bond futures opened lower. However, the news of a marginal interest rate cut in the morning's MLF renewal excited bond market bulls, so the bond market was not affected by the strong stock market. Considering the previous decline in the marginal interest rate of the repurchase, the central bank currently tends to use such tools to reduce institutional financing costs, and interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts will be postponed [3]. 3.4. Bond Futures Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 27 Price | 2025 - 10 - 24 Price | Today's Change | 2025 - 10 - 27 Position | 2025 - 10 - 24 Position | Today's Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.382 | 102.334 | 0.048 | 76,175 | 76,425 | - 250 | | TF2512 | 105.735 | 105.615 | 0.12 | 156,966 | 151,744 | 5,222 | | T2512 | 108.145 | 108.015 | 0.13 | 263,730 | 261,298 | 2,432 | | TL2512 | 115.33 | 115.03 | 0.3 | 179,404 | 176,081 | 3,323 | | TS Basis (CTD) | 0.0123 | - 0.0118 | 0.0241 | - | - | - | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0168 | - 0.0337 | 0.0169 | - | - | - | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0235 | 0.0436 | - 0.0201 | - | - | - | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.2081 | 0.136 | 0.0721 | - | - | - | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume | - | - | - | 29,975 | 26,194 | 3,781 | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume | - | - | - | 58,124 | 46,576 | 11,548 | | T Main Contract Trading Volume | - | - | - | 75,942 | 67,873 | 8,069 | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume | - | - | - | 113,706 | 127,270 | - 13,564 | [4]