Group 1 - The current geopolitical tensions are exacerbated by the policies of the Trump administration, indicating that the U.S. is no longer the sole dominant power globally [1] - The rise of trade protectionism and geopolitical conflicts has led to discussions on achieving stable development and the potential establishment of a new international order at the 2025 Summer Davos Forum [1] - The world is entering a period of unavoidable turmoil, with increasing geopolitical tensions, and the U.S. is facing challenges from rising powers like China and the EU [1] Group 2 - The U.S. has withdrawn from multiple international organizations and global agreements, such as the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organization, which may weaken global multilateral cooperation [1] - Despite the U.S. absence, there is optimism for international cooperation as long as other countries strengthen collaboration based on mutual trust [1] - Countries are encouraged to maximize international cooperation in areas that align with their interests to avoid a crisis similar to that of the 1930s [1]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 螺纹产量回升，表观需求继续下降，体现了近期较好的高炉利润与需求淡 | | | | 季特征。库存小幅下降，供需总体上矛盾不大，部分地区缺规格现象仍然 | | | | 存在。铁水产量仍然处于高位，出口需求仍然较好。外围地缘政治升级有 | | | | 一定的向上拉动作用，在现实基本面未出现明显改善的背景下，短期或偏 | | | | 强，中期仍或区间运行。【2975，3015】 | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 热卷产量小幅下降，表观需求环比回升，库存重新下降。供需总体相对平 | | | | 衡，矛盾不大。地缘政治风险抬高商品整体水平，短期表现或偏强，中期 | | | | 维持区间运行。【3100，3140】 | | 铁矿石 | 区间参与 | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转增，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | | | 供给端发到货双增，港口去库，钢厂增库。整体供需结构环比继续改善， | | | | 矿价偏强运行。短期区间参与，中期逢高布空【695,720】 | | 焦炭 | 区间运行 | 近 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily shipping container transportation report released on June 24, 2025, focusing on market trends and related factors in the shipping industry [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Crude oil prices dropped by 7%, and the market opened high and closed low. The game in the near - term is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [1] - On June 23, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1937.14 points, up 14.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 2083.46 points, down 28.4% from the previous period [1] - On June 20, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1869.59 points, down 218.65 points from the previous period. The SCFI for the European route was 1835 USD/TEU, down 0.49% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 2772 USD/FEU, down 32.86% from the previous period [1] - The Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI was 49.4, the service PMI was 48.9, and the composite PMI was 49.5. The May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 [1] - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [1] - The US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3, the service PMI was 52.3, and the composite PMI was 52.1 [1] Group 3: Market Analysis and Strategies - The European route has strong macro - attributes, and the game is difficult. Some shipping companies have announced price increases, and attention should be paid to the implementation of price support. The Sino - US second - round talks have no substantial progress, and the spot market price range is set. The market is prone to fall and difficult to rise [2] - Short - term strategy: In the absence of an obvious fundamental shift, it is recommended to try short positions on rallies. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try short positions lightly when it rebounds above 2000, and stop losses have been recommended for long positions [2] - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for each contract, and then judge the subsequent direction after waiting for the callback to stabilize [2] Group 4: Geopolitical and Other Factors - The Middle East situation continues to deteriorate. Iran plans to close the Strait of Hormuz. The US - West route freight rate has dropped rapidly, and short - selling sentiment has risen [2] - On June 23, Iran launched the 21st round of the "True Promise - 3" operation against Israel, targeting military targets and military support centers in the north - south direction of the Jordan River West Bank centered on Haifa and Tel Aviv [3] - Goldman Sachs is worried about the possible supply interruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil has risen 20.6% this month to $76.9 per barrel. If the oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz is reduced by half in the first month and remains 10% lower in the next 11 months, the Brent crude oil price may briefly reach a peak of $110 per barrel [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities. It provides short - and long - term outlooks and trading strategies for each market, considering factors such as economic data, geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and cost - price relationships [5][7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined by 0.04%, 0.01%, and 0.01% respectively, while the 5 - year main contract remained flat [5]. - **Economic Data**: The central bank conducted 220.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 23, with an operating rate of 1.40%. Meanwhile, 242 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 100 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits matured on the same day [5]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: With stable macro - data but weak economic recovery momentum, it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Given the relatively low Treasury bond yields, the stable recovery of the Chinese economy, and the uncertainty of the Sino - US trade agreement, it is advisable to be cautious as there is unlikely to be a trending market [5][6]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of CSI 300 (IF), SSE 50 (IH), CSI 500 (IC), and CSI 1000 (IM) rose by 0.68%, 0.74%, 0.64%, and 1.01% respectively [7]. - **Economic Data**: As of the end of May, the total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. Among them, solar and wind power generation capacity increased by 56.9% and 23.1% respectively. From January to May, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased by 132 hours compared to the previous year, while power grid investment increased by 19.8% year - on - year [7][8]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Although the domestic economy is stable, the recovery momentum is weak, and there is a lack of confidence in corporate profits. However, considering the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still promising, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 781.3, up 0.35%, and the night - session closing price was 786.1. The silver main contract closed at 8,770, up 1.22%, with a night - session closing price of 8809 [10]. - **Economic Data**: The preliminary values of the Eurozone's manufacturing, services, and composite PMIs in June were 49.4, 50.0, and 50.2 respectively [10]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the uncertainty of tariffs, and the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue. It is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. Commodities Steel - related - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak fluctuations. The supply - demand relationship in the real estate industry and the entry into the off - season are suppressing prices. However, due to the low valuation, the downside space may be limited. Investors can consider shorting on rebounds and participate with a light position [12][13][14]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures showed weak fluctuations. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, and its valuation is relatively high among black - series varieties. Investors can consider buying at low levels and exit on rebounds, with a stop - loss if the previous low is broken. A light - position participation is recommended [15][16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures showed mixed performance. The market is in a state of oversupply. In the short term, the decline may stop, but the medium - term weakness remains. Investors can consider shorting on rebounds and participate with a light position [17][18][19]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon declined. The supply is still high while the demand is weak. In the short term, the oversupply situation may continue, and the price is under pressure. Investors can consider low - value call options if the spot losses increase significantly [20][21]. Energy - related - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell. The market sentiment has eased after the US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. The US has increased its net long positions in crude oil futures and options. It is advisable to temporarily wait and see [22][23][24]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil, rising and then falling, with a relatively strong trend. The reduction of Singapore's fuel oil inventory and the uncertainty of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are positive factors. It is advisable to temporarily wait and see [25][26][27]. Rubber - related - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber declined. The supply pressure has slightly eased, and the cost is expected to rebound, which may drive the market to stabilize and rebound. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [28][29]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber remained flat, while the 20 - grade rubber main contract declined. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is relatively stable. The market may continue to fluctuate widely. It is advisable to pay attention to opportunities to go long after the market stabilizes [30][32]. Chemical - related - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC declined. The production is expected to decrease, the demand shows no sign of improvement, and the cost support is strengthening. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The market is in a bottom - oscillating state [33][35]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea declined. The large - scale agricultural seasonal demand is basically over, and the industrial demand is weak. However, considering the inventory reduction, it is advisable to take a bullish view [36][37]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX fluctuated and adjusted. The supply - demand may weaken, but the cost is expected to drive the price. It is advisable to operate cautiously at low levels and pay attention to the changes in crude oil prices and the Middle - East situation [38]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA rose. The supply - demand situation has improved, and the cost is strong. It is advisable to participate at low levels and pay attention to the Middle - East situation [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol declined. The supply - demand has weakened, and the inventory has slightly increased. The geopolitical situation may reduce supply, but the upside space is limited. It is advisable to take a cautiously bullish view and pay attention to inventory and import changes [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber rose. The downstream demand has weakened, but the cost is supportive, and the supply has decreased. It is advisable to go long at low levels and pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin [41]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips rose. The raw material cost is strong, and the supply will decrease due to equipment maintenance. The demand is improving. It is advisable to participate cautiously at low levels and pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin [42]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of soda ash declined. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is rising. The long - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. It is not advisable to chase the short - term rebound blindly [43][44]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of glass rose slightly. The actual supply - demand has no obvious driver, and the market lacks positive support. It is not advisable to chase the short - term rebound blindly, and short - position holders should control their positions [45]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of caustic soda rose. The production is expected to increase slightly, and the supply - demand is relatively loose. There are regional differences, and long - position holders should control their positions [46][47]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of pulp rose. The downstream demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The price is expected to be weak, although the domestic mechanical pulp market has a slight upward trend [48]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate declined. The supply remains high, and the demand has slowed down. The oversupply situation has not changed significantly, and the price is difficult to reverse [49]. Agricultural - related - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper showed a weak downward trend. The overseas macro - environment suppresses the price, but the raw material supply and low global inventory provide support. It is advisable to pay attention to opportunities to go long [50][51]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the consumption data is good. The price is expected to fluctuate [52]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The cost support has weakened, and the demand is in the off - season. The market is in an oversupply state, and the price is expected to fluctuate [53]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil declined. The good weather in the US Midwest is beneficial to soybean growth. The inventory of both is increasing. It is advisable to wait and see for soybean meal and consider exiting long positions on rallies for soybean oil [54][56]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil closed up. The domestic inventory is accumulating. It is advisable to consider opportunities to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [57][58]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed futures declined. The domestic inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a high level. It is advisable to consider opportunities to go long on the ratio of oil to meal [59][60]. - **Cotton**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the domestic industry is in the off - season. It is advisable to wait and see [61][62][63]. - **Sugar**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. Brazil's sugar production is increasing, and the domestic inventory is low. It is advisable to go long in batches [64][66][67]. - **Apple**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures declined. The new - year production is uncertain. It is advisable to wait and see [68][69]. - **Pig**: On the previous trading day, the national average price of pigs rose. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to pay attention to the weight - reduction of large - scale farms and consider positive arbitrage opportunities in peak - season contracts [70][72]. - **Egg**: On the previous trading day, the average price of eggs remained flat. The supply is increasing, and it is in the consumption off - season. It is advisable to try shorting on rebounds [73][75][76]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of corn rose slightly, while the main contract of corn starch declined. The domestic supply - demand is approaching balance, and the policy is favorable. It is advisable to wait and see for corn starch, which follows the corn market [76][77][78]. - **Log**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of log rose. The market has no obvious driver, and the spot price is weak. The housing transaction has slightly improved, and it is necessary to be vigilant against bullish sentiment disturbances in the 07 contract [79][80][81].

Geopolitical and Economic Context - The U.S. launched an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to retaliatory actions from Iran, escalating geopolitical tensions. However, market fatigue regarding geopolitical risks has led investors to focus more on Federal Reserve policy and economic data, resulting in gold prices not significantly rising despite the conflict escalation. The uncertainty in geopolitical situations still provides some safe-haven support for gold [2] - Recent U.S. economic data shows signs of weakness, with May retail sales dropping 0.9%, significantly worse than the expected -0.1%, and industrial production unexpectedly declining by 0.2%. This indicates weakening consumer demand and manufacturing momentum, potentially heightening concerns about the difficulty of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, indirectly supporting gold's safe-haven attributes [2] - Hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve pushed the U.S. dollar index to a high of 99.03 on June 19, fluctuating around 98.64 on June 23. A stronger dollar directly suppresses gold priced in dollars, with New York gold futures facing pressure around $3,380. Additionally, the two-year Treasury yield dropped 5 basis points to 3.88%, while the ten-year yield remained above 4.2%. Rising real interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading to short-term pressure on gold prices [2] Technical Analysis of Gold - The spot gold price opened at $3,389.87 per ounce, experiencing significant fluctuations throughout the day, closing at $3,369.04 with a small bearish candle. The daily closing price is near the moving average, indicating potential oscillation around this level, with a downward bias in price structure [5] - Hourly price movements are entangled with moving averages, showing no clear direction. Currently near the previous day's low, it is advisable to wait for the market to choose a direction before taking action. The 15-minute chart indicates a strong downward movement at the previous day's close, suggesting the likelihood of new lows, with a recommendation to sell on rallies [6] Technical Analysis of Silver - Silver opened at $35.9665, showing intraday fluctuations with a slight upward bias, closing at $36.080 with a small doji candle. The closing price is above the 20-day moving average, with multiple retests indicating stabilization, suggesting a bullish outlook and opportunities for long positions [8] - The hourly chart indicates that the pullback is nearly complete, beginning a bottoming oscillation phase, with a mixed directional outlook. It is recommended to wait for the market to establish a clear direction before taking action. The 15-minute chart shows a significant drop at the previous day's close, finding support at the bottom, and currently showing signs of a rebound, likely within a range-bound movement [8]

据CCTV国际时讯援引路透社报道，一名伊朗高级官员向路透社证实，伊朗已接受卡塔尔参与调解、美国提出的与以色列停火方案。就在早些时 候，美国总统特朗普宣布以色列和伊朗将分阶段全面停火。这个消息一出，在全球市场或将激起千层浪，对A股也势必产生深远影响。 2、避险资产也将面临回调压力。黄金、军工等冲突受益板块此前因市场恐慌情绪被推高，随着局势缓和，获利资金或加速离场。投资者需警惕前 期涨幅过高的避险个股出现技术性回调风险； 简单说，如果伊以真的停火，短期或有以下影响： 1、中东作为全球能源核心枢纽，其局势变化直接牵动大宗商品市场与全球供应链神经。若伊以停火落地，最直接的影响将体现在能源领域。霍尔 木兹海峡封锁风险大幅降低，国际油价短期暴涨预期随之消退。对A股而言，航空、交运等成本敏感型行业将率先受益，尤其是燃油成本下降直 接转化为企业利润，有望推动相关板块估值修复； 3、从更宏观的视角看，全球供应链有望迎来修复。此前因地缘冲突引发的运输中断、成本攀升等问题，将逐步得到缓解，A 股出口导向型企业的 经营压力随之减轻。同时，北向资金因避险情绪产生的大幅波动也将趋于平稳，为市场注入稳定性。 据中国基金报消息，美联储理事克 ...

2025年06月24日 | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 | | --- | 观点与策略 | 黄金：地缘政治停火 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：继续冲高 | 3 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝：等待方向选择 | 7 | | 氧化铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铝合金：承压运行 | 7 | | 锌：短期减仓上行 | 9 | | 铅：中期偏强 | 10 | | 锡：紧现实弱预期 | 11 | | 镍：远端镍矿端预期松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢：供需边际双弱，钢价低位震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：偏弱震荡，仓单去化延续 | 15 | | 工业硅：关注仓单变化信息 | 17 | | 多晶硅：逢高空配思路为主 | 17 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：矿端报价坚挺，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：四轮提降落地，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 26 ...

据伊朗媒体，伊朗高级政界消息人士称，伊朗很可能在未来几个小时内袭击美国军事设施。(新浪财经) ...

正信期货聚酯周报 20250623 作者：赵婷 审核：王艳红 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 投资咨询编号：Z0010675 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 内容要点 PTA：地缘冲突加剧，PTA跟随成本波动为主 MEG：中东冲突扰动EG进口，短期偏强运行 数据来源：WIND,隆众 成本端：地缘扰动加剧，国际原油短期上涨为主。PX方面，PX供需基本面向好，维持去库，若原油继续 上涨，PX绝对价格有望继续上扬。 供应端：PTA：下周，福海创有检修计划，PTA产量持续下降。乙二醇：下周来看供应端国产量提升，进 口货微降，总供应预计稳中小增加，但中东局势扰动下，进口担忧明显。 需求端：下周聚酯装置存负荷下滑预期，华润多个基地计划减产2成。纺织服装行业渐入淡季，当前电商 平台仍有零散订单支撑，但坯布市场整体销售明显放缓，工厂库存压力持续加大，需求端持续低迷，部 分企业存在降负预期。订单方面，淡季影响持续深入，品牌订单较前期出现下滑，仅有少量秋冬打样订 单，厂家对于后市预期不尽乐观，后市来看，整体开机率趋弱。 策略：PTA：地缘局势不确定性较强放大油价波动，PTA新投装置投 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in the price of gold ETFs, particularly the Huaan Gold ETF (518880), is driven by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, with a notable year-to-date increase of over 25% [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 23, the Huaan Gold ETF (518880) rose by 0.38%, reaching a latest price of 7.464 yuan, with a trading volume of 27.50 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 4.56% [1]. - The fund's scale has surpassed 602.58 billion yuan, maintaining its position as the largest gold ETF in Asia [1]. - The ETF has shown a 120-day increase of 25.91% and a 250-day increase of 42.52% [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, has heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold [2][3]. - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil trade, poses risks to the commodity and financial markets [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest that while gold has seen significant gains, the upward trend is expected to continue, driven by factors such as the U.S. government deficit and demand for U.S. debt amid a backdrop of de-globalization [3]. - Investors are advised to maintain a gold allocation of 5%-15% in their portfolios as a risk-hedging tool, with recommendations for new investors to consider gradual investment strategies through the Huaan Gold ETF [4].