美联储巴尔：实际利率受到其他因素的显著影响，但美联储的政策确实发挥了作用。 ...

"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos：周五晚上，特朗普表示，他希望看到名义联邦基金利率在1%到2%之 间。假设通胀为2%（这是一个慷慨的假设），那么将产生-1%至0%的实际利率。 ...

策略报告 | 投资策略 海外与大类周报 证券研究报告 中东地缘冲突如何定价？ 伊以冲突触发中东权力格局重构，全球资产反应呈现历史性钝化 以色列 2025 年 6 月 13 日对伊朗核设施实施"斩首式打击"，引发伊朗直接军 事报复。尽管事件导致原油日内涨幅 7.02%（布伦特收盘 74.23 美元/桶）、黄 金冲高 3%（6 月 13 日 COMEX 黄金 3431.2 美元/盎司），但全球权益市场波 动率及美元指数（单日仅涨 0.27%）均未有大幅波动。相较于 1990 年海湾战 争期间原油波动极差 61.5%、标普 500 回撤 20%，本次资产波动强度显著减弱， 反映金融体系对区域性冲突的适应性进化——定价锚点转向供需基本面（原 油）与实际利率（黄金），边际影响系统性衰减。 原油：地缘溢价衰减与供需新平衡 地缘冲击对油价的边际驱动持续弱化，供给侧调控与季节性需求的博弈成为 新主导。尽管霍尔木兹海峡中断风险推升布伦特原油盘中涨幅超 10%，但价 格较俄乌冲突峰值（127.98 美元/桶）低 42%，印证地缘溢价衰减。历史趋势 明确：1990 年海湾战争波动极差 61.5 个百分点，2023 年巴以冲突收窄至 ...

黄金为何未能如预期般"飞升"? 1. "有限冲突"预期压制避险买盘 传统逻辑下,中东战火应推动避险资产走强,黄金理应大涨,但本轮黄金下跌的根本在于市场对"冲突周 期"的重新定价:当前共识是,即便美方介入,也将采取短期、精准打击而非长期军事介入,这种"可控性"的 判断削弱了黄金作为避险工具的吸引力。 2. 美元逆势走强成主压力量 同期美元指数持续攀升,背后既有避险资金"买美元"行为,也有更深层的货币政策分化因素——瑞士和挪 威央行6月内相继降息25个基点,欧央行转向鸽派,而美联储则连续第四次按兵不动,这种政策利差进一步 吸引资本流向美元资产,间接对金价构成压制。 地缘风险未退,通胀风险隐现 黄金短期调整并非趋势终结,若我们将时间维度拉长,就会发现多重风险因素正在同步积累,为黄金带来结 构性机会。 以色列空袭伊朗境内核目标后,伊朗迅速反击,并在隔夜袭击以色列医院与军事设施,双方陷入激烈对抗。 虽然美方尚未直接出手,但特朗普已表态将在"两周内"决定是否军事介入,全球市场正处于一场地缘与宏 观交错的风暴中心,令人意外的是,黄金价格自6月16日触及3452美元高位后持续回调,并跌穿3360关键技 术位;反之,美元却强势 ...

日本央行行长植田和男表示，如果经济和物价如预期般改善，预计将继续加息以应对经济状况。日本的 实际 利率明显偏低。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：日本的实际利率明显偏低。 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-06-19 美联储按兵不动 鲍威尔称通胀或走高 市场要闻与重要数据 今日凌晨，美联储6月议息连续第四次维持利率不变，点阵图显示今年降息两次，但预计今年不降息的官员人数升 至7位，明年的降息预期被削减至1次。鲍威尔继续高呼不确定性，目前的经济情况适合观望。他还预计未来几个 月会有关税驱动的通胀上升。而美国总统一特朗普重申美联储应降息应降200BP，降250BP会非常好。地缘方面， 伊朗总统哈梅内伊称伊朗不会投降，不接受强加的战或和。据悉如果美国干预以色列和伊朗的冲突，俄罗斯威胁 将介入。地缘因素目前仍然相对复杂多变。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-06-18，沪金主力合约开于 785.36元/克，收于 785.42元/克，较前一交易日收盘 0.04%。当日成交量为 164233手，持仓量为 162421手。 2025-06-18，沪银主力合约开于 8932元/千克，收于 9045元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 776804手，持仓量 445981手。 美债收益率与利差监控： 2025-06-18，美国 10 年期国债利率收于4.38%，较前一交易日变化-0.01% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical factors have made precious metal prices strong, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate meeting. The future possibility of interest rate cuts is relatively high due to Trump's pressure on the Fed. The expected change in real interest rates is likely to be downward, which is favorable for gold prices. However, the gold market may be in a volatile pattern, and it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging. Silver prices are strong, and there is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio. Although it is still advisable to buy on dips for hedging, more attention should be paid to position control and strict stop-loss execution [1][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - US retail sales in May were weaker than expected, but consumer spending was supported by steady wage growth. The US dollar index weakened after the data release but quickly reversed its decline. Precious metal prices also strengthened, possibly due to complex geopolitical factors. The market generally believes that the Fed will not adjust interest rates at this meeting, but the possibility of future rate cuts is relatively high due to Trump's pressure [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On June 17, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 792.68 yuan/gram and closed at 785.08 yuan/gram, a decrease of 0.91% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 192,889 lots, and the open interest was 168,935 lots. The night session closed at 787.38 yuan/gram, up 0.04% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened and closed at 8,864 yuan/kilogram, a decrease of 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 457,021 lots, and the open interest was 409,052 lots. The night session closed at 8,988 yuan/kilogram, up 1.71% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On June 17, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.46%, a change of 0.05% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.45%, a decrease of 4 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 55 lots, and the short positions decreased by 28 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract was 382,113 lots, a decrease of 12.21% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, the long positions increased by 816 lots, and the short positions increased by 721 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contract was 752,455 lots, a decrease of 19.76% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 945.94 tons, an increase of 4.01 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,675.36 tons, a decrease of 39.58 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On June 17, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 5.97 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -561.85 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 88.57, a decrease of 0.98% from the previous trading day. The foreign market gold-silver ratio was 93.60, a change of -1.40% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On June 17, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 40,822 kilograms, an increase of 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 284,700 kilograms, a decrease of 48.26% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,652 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 32,520 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging between 780 yuan/gram and 785 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Although it is still advisable to buy on dips for hedging, more attention should be paid to position control and strict stop-loss execution [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of early mortgage repayment in the context of declining loan interest rates and the opportunity costs associated with investment decisions. Group 1: Early Repayment Considerations - Early repayment of mortgages may not be financially beneficial if the borrower has access to higher-yielding investment opportunities that can cover loan interest costs [1][6] - Individuals with limited investment experience may find early repayment more advantageous as they are less likely to achieve returns that exceed mortgage interest rates [6][10] - The actual cost of borrowing can differ significantly from nominal rates, influenced by factors such as inflation and deflation [8][10] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Borrowers with substantial investment experience may choose to keep their funds liquid for higher returns rather than repaying mortgages early [10][12] - If alternative investments yield returns greater than the mortgage interest rate, early repayment is generally not advisable [12][15] - The timing of mortgage repayment is crucial; early repayment is more beneficial within the first third of the loan term, especially under an amortized payment structure [13][15] Group 3: Strategies for Early Repayment - Two primary strategies for early repayment include shortening the loan term or reducing monthly payments, depending on the borrower's financial situation [17] - Borrowers anticipating future deflation may find early repayment to be a wise decision, while those expecting inflation should consider maintaining their investments [15][17]

Group 1 - The situation in the Middle East is escalating, leading to increased risks in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil transport route, which may disrupt global shipping supply chains [1] - The shipping sector is expected to initiate a new round of price increases following the 2024 Red Sea incident, particularly in international oil transportation due to the geopolitical tensions [1] - The impact on container and dry bulk shipping is relatively minor compared to the significant effects on international oil transportation [1] Group 2 - Historical analysis suggests that geopolitical conflicts serve as short-term catalysts for gold price increases, but do not have a long-term impact on gold prices [2] - The primary drivers of gold prices are expected to return to real interest rates and global uncertainty, indicating a bullish outlook for gold prices in the medium to long term [2] - Geopolitical conflicts in oil-producing regions are likely to lead to further increases in oil prices during periods of conflict [2]