Loan and Credit Analysis - In May, new loans amounted to 620 billion, showing a significant year-on-year decrease of 330 billion due to a low base[3] - The reduction in short-term loans and bill financing totaled 546 billion year-on-year, indicating a cooling in corporate short-term financing behavior[3] - The balance of loans saw a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1 percentage points to 7.1%[3] Government Debt and Social Financing - New social financing in May reached 2.29 trillion, an increase of 224.8 billion year-on-year[4] - New government bonds issued amounted to 1.46 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 236.7 billion, supporting social financing growth[4] - The active issuance of corporate bonds totaled 149.6 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 121.1 billion, driven by lower long-term interest rates[4] Monetary Supply and Economic Indicators - M2 growth slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 7.9%, yet remains at a high level, contrasting with the declining loan growth rate[5] - In May, deposits from residents and enterprises increased by 50 billion and 382.4 billion respectively, while fiscal deposits saw a modest increase of 116.7 billion[5] - M1 experienced a significant year-on-year increase of 0.8 percentage points to 2.3%, marking a near 15-month high[5] Market Outlook and Risks - The current real estate market has not yet established a solid bottom, and the internal credit financing demand is cooling, making it difficult for minor rate cuts to reverse the trend quickly[5] - The potential for further monetary easing remains, with a forecast for a 10 basis point rate cut in June[5] - Risks include the possibility of monetary policy easing being less than expected[6]

6月10日，成都两宗地顺利出让，拍卖过程波澜不兴。 | 锦江则 别名: 锦江赋里明 9.2/10分 查看评分 | | --- | | 在售 普通住宅 合院 政職代活 | | 提盘概况: 3799元/m2 (mst) 775-2554万元/套(总价) | | M 安价摄图 E 查看价格走势 目 贷款计算器 | | 除汇赋3#、16#共50集房源取证,户型区域约213-523㎡,流水均价约37999元/㎡,单价36384- 58199元/㎡,总价约775-2554万元/套,报价时间:2024年06月27日,价格和效期:14天该价格 为参考价格,实际价格以开发商为准 | | 主力户型:三居(1) 四国(3) 五暦(1) 图 全部 | | 项目總址: 佛江三至多石榴街199号 9 查看地图 | | 近期开盘:2025年3月18日 Q 开盘遗址 白 交房时间 @ 我要装修 | | 更多详细值 >> ♡ 数量 ~ 分享 ■ 对比 日报到手机 | 此次华发、锦江统建摘得的这块宗地，之后的开盘价格相差应该不会太大。 两宗地位于成都三圣乡、彭州天彭。落锤之后，三圣乡61亩宗地被锦江统建与华发股份联手收入，竞得 价22000元/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The policy-side positives for the steel market have basically been realized, and the easing of Sino-US trade tensions is also reflected in prices. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower-tier cities is still bottoming out, with new construction area significantly declining and completion and construction areas still showing large year-on-year drops. The market is gradually shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and the weak expectation may not have changed substantially. Technically, steel prices have broken through the recent trading range and are expected to continue the downward trend [1]. - Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production cuts, iron ore demand is expected to decline. On the supply side, global shipments are relatively high and rising seasonally. The slowdown in port inventory decline and the high proportion of trade ore inventory put pressure on futures prices. The iron ore futures price is within the recent trading range and may break downwards driven by the decline in steel prices [3]. Summary by Directory I. Threaded Rods and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Market Situation**: Policy-side positives are realized, real estate in core cities stabilizes while lower-tier cities are bottoming out. Demand is expected to weaken with the arrival of the rainy season and high temperatures. The impact of production cut rumors is limited, and steel mills' initiative to cut production is weak [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: Prices have broken through the recent trading range and are expected to continue the downward trend [1]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions [1]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of threaded rods and hot-rolled coils have declined. For example, the threaded rod futures price dropped by 2.79% compared to last week, and the hot-rolled coil futures price dropped by 3.54% [1]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill threaded rod production decreased by 2.58% week-on-week, while the hot-rolled coil production increased by 4.54% [1]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 2.92% week-on-week, with the threaded rod social inventory dropping by 5.25% and the hot-rolled coil social inventory dropping by 2.08% [1]. II. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mills' iron water production is expected to decline further. The supply is relatively high, and the port inventory decline is slowing down with a high proportion of trade ore inventory [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is within the recent trading range and may break downwards driven by the decline in steel prices [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly [3]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The prices of various iron ore varieties have declined. For example, the price of Mac fines at Qingdao Port dropped by 2.46% compared to last week [3]. - **Shipments**: Australian iron ore shipments increased by 7.41% week-on-week, while Brazilian shipments decreased by 3.40% [3]. - **Inventory**: The total port inventory decreased by 0.87% week-on-week, and the port trade ore inventory decreased by 1.50% [3]. III. Industry News - In May 2025, the coking coal long-term agreement coal-steel linkage floating value decreased by 31.2 yuan/ton month-on-month, a decline of 2.39% [5]. - Mongolia's ER company's coking coal has failed to be sold in 16 consecutive auctions, with a starting price of 750 yuan/ton [6]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased by 122.25 tons week-on-week [7]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.87%, the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.69%, the steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, and the daily average iron water output was 2.4191 million tons [8]. - The Gabonese government announced that it will stop exporting manganese ore raw materials from 2029 as part of its national strategy to promote industrialization and reduce dependence on unprocessed resource exports [9].

Production Insights - Overall production heat has declined, with coke oven capacity utilization down by 0.05 pct and blast furnace operating rate down by 0.46 pct[3] - Rebar production increased by 49,500 tons, while asphalt operating rate fell by 3.6 pct[3][14] - PX and PTA operating rates decreased by 0.81 pct and 0.58 pct respectively[14] Demand Trends - The transaction area of commercial housing decreased, with 30 major cities recording a total of 1.8065 million square meters, down by 36,500 square meters from the previous week[4][22] - The land transaction area increased by 3.3361 million square meters, with the premium rate for residential land dropping by 7.46[4][22] - Domestic shipping indices showed mixed results, with SCFI up by 7.21% and BDI down by 3.46%[4][31] Price Movements - Prices for crude oil, coking coal, rebar, and aluminum have decreased, with Brent crude down by 0.96% to $64.78 per barrel[5][34] - Coking coal futures fell by 5.61% to 815.5 yuan per ton, while LME copper and zinc prices increased by 1.76% and 0.78% respectively[5][34] - Agricultural product prices continued a seasonal decline, with pork prices up by 0.05% and egg prices down by 1.74%[5][37] Logistics and Transportation - Subway passenger volumes in Beijing and Shanghai decreased, with a drop of approximately 128,700 and 112,900 passengers respectively[6][39] - Domestic flight numbers increased by 1.73%, while international flights decreased by 1.27%[6][39][42] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include the possibility of policy effects falling short of expectations and liquidity tightening beyond forecasts[6][45]

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to lower mortgage rates, particularly for first-time homebuyers, stimulating housing demand and easing repayment pressures for existing homeowners [1][3][6]. Summary by Sections LPR Adjustment - On May 20, 2025, the PBOC announced a 10 basis point reduction in both the 1-year and 5-year LPR, bringing them down to 3.00% and 3.50% respectively [1]. - The 5-year LPR serves as the benchmark for mortgage rates, indicating a potential decrease in housing loan rates [1]. Mortgage Rate Impact - The first-time home loan rate has dropped below 3% for the first time, with some cities reporting rates as low as 2.90% [6][7]. - The average mortgage rate for new commercial personal housing loans in Q1 2025 was 3.11%, with first-time home loans averaging around 3.06% [3]. Financial Relief for Homebuyers - A calculation based on a 1 million yuan mortgage over 30 years suggests that the recent LPR adjustment could save homebuyers approximately 56 yuan per month, totaling around 20,162 yuan in interest savings over the loan term [7]. - The adjustment is expected to further reduce the financial burden on existing homeowners as their mortgage rates are also likely to decrease [7]. Economic Context and Rationale - The decision to lower rates aligns with the central government's strategy to support the economy, stabilize employment, and boost market confidence [8]. - The real estate sector is seen as a key driver for economic recovery, necessitating measures to stimulate demand [8][9]. Market Expectations - There is anticipation for additional supportive policies for the real estate market, as recent trends show a decline in new housing sales and investment [9][12]. - Analysts suggest that the current monetary policy will continue to be accommodative, with expectations of further rate cuts in the future [10]. Rental Market Dynamics - Recent adjustments in deposit rates by major banks indicate that rental yields in first-tier cities are now more attractive compared to fixed deposit returns [13][15]. - The rental-to-price ratios in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are reported to be around 1.49% to 1.68%, reflecting a favorable rental market [15].

金融界、东方金诚联合推出《债市早报》栏目，为您提供最全最及时债市信息。 【内容摘要】5月19日，央行公开市场继续净投放，资金面收敛态势有所缓解；债市明显回暖；转债市 场主要指数集体收涨，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率走势分化，主要欧洲经济体10年期国债收 益率走势分化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【4月份经济运行保持总体平稳】国家统计局5月19日发布的数据显示，4月全国规模以上工业增加值同 比增长6.1%，社会消费品零售总额同比增长5.1%。1-4月，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）同比增长 4.0%。国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示，4月份，我国经济运行保持总体平稳。面对外部冲击，我国 经济能够顶住压力稳定增长，既得益于我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，也得益于宏观政策 协同发力、各方面积极应变，更是坚定不移推动高质量发展、加快构建新发展格局的结果。 【4月70大中城市中有22城新建商品住宅价格环比上涨】5月19日，国家统计局公布数据显示，中国4月 70大中城市中有22城新建商品住宅价格环比上涨，3月为24城；其中，上海、大连涨幅0.5%领跑，北上 广深分别涨0.1%、涨0.5%、跌0.2%、跌0. ...

Core Insights - In April, new residential sales prices in first-tier cities remained stable, with Beijing and Shanghai experiencing slight increases of 0.1% and 0.5% respectively, while second-tier cities remained flat and third-tier cities saw a decrease of 0.2% [2][4][6] - From January to April, the total sales area of new residential properties nationwide was approximately 283 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, while sales revenue exceeded 2.7 trillion yuan, down 3.2% year-on-year, indicating a stable trend overall [2][3] - The real estate market is undergoing a phase of adjustment, with core cities showing resilience in demand, and some regions experiencing moderate price increases, suggesting potential opportunities for high-quality development in the sector [3][4] Price Trends - In April, 22 out of 70 cities saw an increase in new residential prices, with Dalian and Shanghai both rising by 0.5%, and cities like Tianjin and Hangzhou increasing by 0.4% [4][6] - Year-on-year, first-tier cities saw a price decline of 2.1%, with only Shanghai showing an increase of 5.9%, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced declines of 5.0%, 6.3%, and 3.0% respectively [7][9] - The second-hand housing market showed a mixed performance, with cities like Shanghai, Chengdu, and Hangzhou demonstrating strong resilience, while the overall number of cities with rising second-hand prices decreased to five in April [9][10] Market Dynamics - The performance of the real estate market is characterized by two types of resilient cities: high-tier cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou, and stable markets that have not experienced significant fluctuations [4][7] - The recent data indicates that the second-hand housing market's recovery needs to be consolidated, with a focus on leveraging various policies to promote price increases in more cities [9][11] - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautiously optimistic, with signs of potential recovery driven by favorable policies and demand upgrades [3][4][7]

Group 1: Real Estate Development Overview - From January to April, the total construction area of real estate development enterprises reached 620,315 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%. The residential construction area was 431,937 million square meters, down 10.1% [2] - The new construction area for buildings was 17,836 million square meters, a decline of 23.8%, with residential new construction area at 13,164 million square meters, down 22.3% [2] - The completed construction area was 15,648 million square meters, down 16.9%, with residential completed area at 11,424 million square meters, down 16.8% [2] Group 2: New Housing Sales and Inventory - From January to April, the sales area of new commercial housing was 28,262 million square meters, a decrease of 2.8%, with residential sales area down 2.1% [3] - The sales revenue from new commercial housing was 27,035 billion yuan, a decline of 3.2%, with residential sales revenue down 1.9% [3] - As of the end of April, the inventory of unsold commercial housing was 78,142 million square meters, a reduction of 522 million square meters from the end of March, with residential unsold area decreasing by 455 million square meters [6] Group 3: Funding Situation for Real Estate Development - From January to April, the total funds available to real estate development enterprises amounted to 32,596 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1% [7] - Domestic loans accounted for 5,619 billion yuan, an increase of 0.8%, while foreign investment reached 16 million yuan, up 82.0% [7] - Self-raised funds were 10,953 billion yuan, down 6.8%, and personal mortgage loans were 4,518 billion yuan, down 8.5% [7] Group 4: Real Estate Development Prosperity Index - The real estate development prosperity index (National Housing Prosperity Index) stood at 93.86 at the end of April [9]

Infrastructure Investment - China's infrastructure development shows significant regional and structural differences, with the central and western regions needing to address gaps in transportation, energy, and new infrastructure like 5G and data centers, while eastern developed areas focus on upgrading traditional infrastructure [2] - The central government emphasizes "precise and effective investment" to avoid blind expansion, prioritizing major projects and new urbanization in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] Consumer Coupons - Consumer coupons have provided immediate boosts to specific sectors such as dining, retail, and tourism, alleviating pressure on small and medium enterprises, with notable sales recovery following their distribution in 2022 [4] - However, reliance on consumer coupons alone cannot address the fundamental issue of consumption decline, which is primarily driven by unstable income expectations [4] Industrial Innovation - Industrial innovation is crucial for China's economic transformation, particularly with the rise of the digital economy and emerging industries like AI, new energy, and biomedicine, which are key drivers of sustained economic growth [5] - The government is accelerating technological innovation through initiatives like "ranking and hanging banners," technology special funds, and industry-academia-research cooperation [6] Urbanization - As of 2023, China's urbanization rate is approximately 66.16%, transitioning from a "high-speed" to a "high-quality" development phase, focusing on coordinated development of urban clusters [8] - Despite claims of many cities becoming towns, data shows over 100 cities still possess strong development potential [8] Real Estate Market - The real estate market exhibits clear differentiation, with some third and fourth-tier cities experiencing price adjustments due to population outflow and inventory buildup, while first-tier and core second-tier cities maintain stable prices [11] - The central government adheres to the "housing is for living, not speculation" policy, promoting measures to support rigid and improved housing demand [11] Stock Market and Economy - The stock market reflects economic conditions, with long-term performance driven by economic fundamentals and corporate earnings, necessitating reforms to enhance market efficiency and direct funds towards innovation and green economy sectors [12] - To achieve sustainable growth similar to the US stock market, China must cultivate globally competitive enterprises, particularly in new energy and high-end manufacturing [12] Industry Upgrading - The growth of enterprises is a natural result of market competition rather than direct government intervention, which should focus on creating a fair competitive environment and supporting innovation [14] - Upgrading the manufacturing sector is essential, requiring technological innovation and digital transformation to increase added value, rather than over-reliance on short-term gains from real estate or financial markets [14]

双降&中美经贸会谈后的债市展望 20250515 摘要 • 传统流动性指标失效，个人投资者资金分布成关键因素。今年理财扩张规 模或相对一般，对应市场为小牛市。央行主导长端利率下行风险缓解，可 关注 5 到 7 年凸性交易机会。 • 中期来看经济下行和低通胀未结束，利率下行趋势未破坏。信用债投资首 要任务是保持流动性，可适当下沉或拉长久期，关注高流动性溢价品种， 谨慎对待低流动性品种。 今年债券市场的核心主线是什么？ 今年债券市场的核心主线是流动性与预期差。预期差既包括基本面的息差，也 包括资金面的预期差。这方面会给证券市场持续带来扰动。我们整体认为今年 的债券市场是一个震荡偏强的市场，预计十年国债运行区间为 1.6 到 1.9，相 对去年利率单边下行，今年可能会有一些波动往复。 对于基本面和流动性的具体判断是什么？ 对于基本面，今年最重要的是关注是否已经见底，而不是好转。过去几年，大 家一直预期基本面单边下行，这与地产下行周期匹配。今年一季度讨论剧烈， 认为地产周期是否见底，但二季度随着逻辑被证伪，大家回到偏下行方向。目 前市场对于基本面的预期大于实际结果，即使关税政策对基本面有长期负面影 响或短期正面刺激， ...