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市场消息平静,白糖震荡为主
Xin Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 01:34
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, which may lead to pests and diseases and requires early prevention. Internationally, it is necessary to continue to monitor the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Data Overview 3.1.1 Outer - Market Quotes - US sugar (USD): On July 20, 2025, it was 16.79, and on July 21, 2025, it was 16.36, with a decline of 2.56% [3]. - US cotton (USD): On July 20, 2025, it was 68.76, and on July 21, 2025, it was 68.09, with a decline of 0.97% [3]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning): On July 18, 2025, it was 6050.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 6060.0, with an increase of 0.17% [3]. - Sugar (Kunming): On July 18, 2025, it was 5920.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 5920.0, with no change [3]. - Cotton Index 328: On July 18, 2025, it was 3281, and on July 21, 2025, it was 3280, with a decline of 0.52% [3]. - Cotton (Xinjiang): On July 18, 2025, it was 15300.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 15400.0, with an increase of 0.65% [3]. 3.1.3 Spread Overview - SR01 - 05: On July 20, 2025, it was 59.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 54.0, with a decline of 8.47% [3]. - SR05 - 09: On July 20, 2025, it was - 229.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was - 223.0, with a decline of 2.62% [3]. - SR09 - 01: On July 20, 2025, it was 170.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 169.0, with a decline of 0.59% [3]. - CF01 - 05: On July 20, 2025, it was 50.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 45.0, with a decline of 10.00% [3]. - CF05 - 09: On July 20, 2025, it was - 355.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was - 240.0, with a decline of 32.39% [3]. - CF09 - 01: On July 20, 2025, it was 305.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 195.0, with a decline of 36.07% [3]. - Sugar 01 basis: On July 20, 2025, it was 264.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 250.0, with a decline of 5.30% [3]. - Sugar 05 basis: On July 20, 2025, it was 323.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 304.0, with a decline of 5.88% [3]. - Sugar 09 basis: On July 20, 2025, it was 94.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 81.0, with a decline of 13.83% [3]. - Cotton 01 basis: On July 20, 2025, it was 1543.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 1599.0, with an increase of 3.63% [3]. - Cotton 05 basis: On July 20, 2025, it was 1593.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 1644.0, with an increase of 3.20% [3]. - Cotton 09 basis: On July 20, 2025, it was 1238.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 1404.0, with an increase of 13.41% [3]. 3.1.4 Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA: On July 18, 2025, it was 79.5, and on July 21, 2025, it was 79.5, with no change [3]. 3.1.5 Profit Margins - Sugar import profit: On July 18, 2025, it was 1506.5, and on July 21, 2025, it was 1506.5, with no change [3]. 3.1.6 Options - SR509C5800: Implied volatility is 0.0791, and the futures underlying is SR509 with a historical volatility of 7.02 [3]. - SR509P5800: Implied volatility is 0.0806 [3]. - CF509C14200: Implied volatility is 0.1252, and the futures underlying is CF509 with a historical volatility of 9.03 [3]. - CF509P14200: Implied volatility is 0.1226 [3]. 3.1.7 Warehouse Receipts (sheets) - Sugar: On July 18, 2025, it was 21477.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 21437.0, with a decline of 0.19% [3]. - Cotton: On July 18, 2025, it was 9532.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 9501.0, with a decline of 0.33% [3]. 3. Company Information - The company is CINDA Futures Co., Ltd., a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business, wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has various memberships and observer statuses in multiple exchanges and associations [8].
【期货热点追踪】多头期待已久的炒作机会终于来了?美豆优良率低于市场预期,部分地区出现干旱,业内人士将……点击了解。
news flash· 2025-07-21 23:57
Core Viewpoint - The long-awaited speculative opportunity for bulls has finally arrived due to lower-than-expected quality ratings for U.S. soybeans and drought conditions in certain regions [1] Group 1 - U.S. soybean quality ratings have fallen below market expectations, indicating potential supply issues [1] - Certain areas are experiencing drought, which could further impact soybean yields and prices [1]
白糖日报-20250721
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 10:07
软商品日报 2025/07/21 咨询业务资格:沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者:许亮 Z0002220 审核:唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制,但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期,本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改, 交易者(您)应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正,但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考,交易者(您)并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者(您)依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果,本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可,任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的,需在允许的范围内使用,并注明出处为"东亚期货",且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...
天然与合成橡胶日评:天然橡胶震荡偏强合成橡胶震荡偏强-20250721
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 06:22
天然与合成橡胶日评20250721: 天然橡胶震荡偏强 合成橡胶震荡偏强 | HONGYUAN FUTURES | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变量名称 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | 2025-07-10 | 2025-07-18 | 2025-07-17 | 收盘价 | 14810 | 14405 | 14665 | 145.00 ~ | | | | | 成交量(手) | 69,268.00 VV V | 天然橡胶 | 471429 | 402161 | 461226 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量(手) | 217638 | 219169 | 216558 | -1.531.00 ~ V V ~~~~~ | | | | 注册仓单量 | 186980 | 188740 | -340.00 | 186640 | 天然橡胶基差 | -130 | 15 | -140 | 155.00 -VV | | | | | | ...
【期货热点追踪】一则突发消息提振市场情绪,工业硅早盘逼近涨停!后市会怎么走?点击了解。
news flash· 2025-07-21 03:57
一则突发消息提振市场情绪,工业硅早盘逼近涨停!后市会怎么走?点击了解。 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...
豆粕:关注前高技术压力位,谨防冲高回落,豆一:回落调整
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 02:27
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Concern about the high technical pressure level of soybean meal and guard against a pullback after a spike; soybean No. 1 is in a pullback adjustment [1] - On July 18, CBOT soybean futures rose for the third consecutive trading day, with the benchmark contract up 0.8% to a two - week high due to concerns about high - temperature weather threatening US crops and the expectation that US biofuel policies will boost domestic soybean oil demand [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No. 1 2509 closed at 4189 yuan/ton during the day session, down 5 yuan (-0.12%), and 4176 yuan at night, down 22 yuan (-0.52%); DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3056 yuan/ton during the day session, up 45 yuan (+1.49%), and 3067 yuan at night, up 24 yuan (+0.79%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1035 cents/bushel, up 7.75 cents (+0.75%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 288.8 dollars/short ton, up 5.3 dollars (+1.87%) [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the price of soybean meal was 2910 - 2960 yuan/ton, up 20 - 40 yuan from the previous day; in East China, it was 2830 - 2920 yuan/ton, up 20 or 40 yuan; in South China, it was 2900 - 2960 yuan/ton, up 10 - 50 yuan [1] - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 14.31 million tons/day, down from 16.81 million tons/day in the previous trading day; the inventory was not available, and the previous week's inventory was 84.29 million tons [1] Macro and Industry News - On July 18, CBOT soybean futures rose for three consecutive days. The market was worried that high - temperature weather might threaten US crops, and US biofuel policies would boost domestic soybean oil demand. Traders also focused on the strong expected demand for US soybean oil and closely monitored US weather conditions as August is the critical growth period for soybeans [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1; the trend intensity of soybean No. 1 is 0, referring only to the price fluctuations of the main contract during the day session on the reporting day [3]
纯苯:偏强震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 02:14
纯苯:偏强震荡 2025 年 07 月 21 日 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号:Z008016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BZ2603 | 6164 | 6122 | 42 | BZ2603-EB2508 | -1183 | -1162 | -21 | | BZ2604 | 6126 | 6108 | 18 | BZ2603-EB2509 | -1095 | -1099 | 4 | | BZ2605 | 6130 | 6120 | 10 | BZ2603-EB2603 | -962 | -1010 | 48 | | BZ2603-BZ2604 | 38 | 14 | 24 | BZ2604-EB2604 | -1005 | -1003 | -2 | | BZ2604-BZ2605 | -4 | -12 | 8 | 山东纯苯价格 | 5755 | 5775 | -20 | | 纸货价格:N+1 | 600 ...
【期货热点追踪】COMEX对LME史诗级溢价背后,谁在逼仓?智利紧急开会,会把铜推上1万美元吗?点击了解。
news flash· 2025-07-21 00:18
COMEX对LME史诗级溢价背后,谁在逼仓?智利紧急开会,会把铜推上1万美元吗?点击了解。 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...
国泰君安期货黑色与建材原木周度报告-20250720
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-20 12:39
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The log market maintains a weak supply - demand pattern. The spot prices of mainstream log varieties have generally declined slightly this week. The futures market shows a high - level volatile trend, with the closing price of the main contract rising, and the monthly spread tends to narrow [4][15][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - As of July 13, there were 19 vessels departing from New Zealand in July, among which 17 were bound for the Chinese mainland, and 2 were for Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. It is expected that about 16 vessels will arrive in July and 3 in August, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.63 million cubic meters in July [5][8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - **Daily shipment volume**: As of the week of July 11, the daily shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 19,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 3,100 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 11,000 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 600 cubic meters) [6][12]. - **Port inventory**: The inventory of Lanshan Port was about 1.1808 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 18,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port was about 506,400 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 15,400 cubic meters), Xinminzhou was about 410,300 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 17,000 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port was about 217,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 21,500 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.3147 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 7,100 cubic meters [6][12]. 3.3 Market Trend - The log contract market maintains a weak supply - demand pattern. This week, the monthly spread tends to narrow. The 09 - 11 monthly spread is - 3 yuan per cubic meter, the 09 - 01 monthly spread is - 9.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 11 - 01 monthly spread is - 6.5 yuan per cubic meter [15]. - As of July 18, the closing price of the main contract LG2509 was 828.5 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week increase of 6.0%. This week, the market showed a high - level volatile trend, and the fundamentals remained unchanged [16]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Spot price**: The prices of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan per cubic meter compared with last week; the price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong remained unchanged, and that in Jiangsu also remained unchanged; the price of 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan per cubic meter [4][19]. - **Regional spread**: The report presents the price spreads of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu, such as the spreads of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, etc. [22][23][27] - **Tree species and specification spread**: The report shows the price spreads between different tree species and specifications, like the spreads between 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 40 +, 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 5.9 - meter radiata pine 40 +, etc. [38][40][42] 3.5 Other - **Freight and exchange rate**: As of the week of July 20, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,052 points, a week - on - week increase of 389 points (23.4%); the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 673 points, a week - on - week increase of 4.3%; the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,646.90 points, a week - on - week decrease of 5.0%. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index fluctuated at a low level. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.182, a week - on - week increase of 0.1%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate slightly increased by 0.8% to 1.677 [6][52][53]
短纤:短期震荡市,瓶片:短期震荡,多 PR 空 PF
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 05:33
2025 年 07 月 18 日 短纤:短期震荡市 瓶片:短期震荡,多 PR 空 PF 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅(联系人) 从业资格号:F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 短纤趋势强度:0;瓶片趋势强度:0(仅指报告日的日盘主力合约期价波动情况) 注:趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下:弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强,-2 表示 最看空,2 表示最看多。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2508 | 6514 | 6492 | 22 | PF08-09 | 154 | 136 | 18 | | PF | 短纤2509 | 6360 | 6356 | ব | PF09-10 | -28 | -34 | 6 | | | 短纤2510 | 6388 | 6390 | ...