Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2) Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the US soybeans closed lower, and the Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate [1] - The soybean futures showed a rebound after an excessive decline [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Content a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean 2511 closed at 3911 yuan/ton during the day session, down 60 yuan (-0.13%), and up 8 yuan (+0.20%) to 3927 yuan in the night session; DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3066 yuan/ton during the day session, down 10 yuan (-0.33%), and up 12 yuan (+0.39%) to 3076 yuan in the night session; CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1025 cents/bushel, down 5.5 cents (-0.53%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 285.7 dollars/short - ton, down 2.9 dollars (-1.00%) [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the soybean meal (43%) price was 3050 - 3070 yuan/ton, with different premiums and discounts compared to M2601; in East China, it was 3000 yuan/ton (from a factory in Taizhou), with different premiums and discounts compared to M2601; in South China, it was 3020 - 3090 yuan/ton, with different premiums and discounts compared to M2601 [1] - **Industrial Data**: The previous trading day's soybean meal inventory was 106.39 tons/week, compared to 101.49 tons/week two trading days ago; the previous trading week's trading volume was 14.48 tons/day [1] b. Macro and Industry News - On September 10, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. Traders adjusted their positions before the USDA's global supply - demand report on Friday, and there were continuous concerns about Chinese demand [3] - Analysts expect the USDA to lower the US soybean and corn yield forecasts on Friday, but the production is still expected to be high. They guess the US soybean yield may be lowered to 53.3 bushels per acre from 53.6 bushels last month, and the soybean production may be 4.271 billion bushels this year [3] - The US soybean growth condition declined for the second consecutive week, although it was still above the average level [3] - Due to the deadlock in trade negotiations, US soybean exports to China were suspended, and South American competitors filled the gap, causing US farmers to miss billions of dollars in exports to China during the peak sales season [3] c. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and that of soybean is +1, referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the day session of the report day [3]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, profit, inventory, and raw material cost, and also mentions relevant macro and industry news, as well as the trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2511's closing price was 8,665 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 622,948 lots and an open interest of 278,065 lots; PS2511's closing price was 52,885 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 411,979 lots and an open interest of 137,072 lots [1]. - **Basis**: The industrial silicon spot had different premiums or discounts against different benchmarks, and the polysilicon spot had a discount of -1,835 yuan/ton against N - type recycled materials [1]. - **Price**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,500 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 was 9,650 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type recycled materials was 51,550 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profit**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang and Yunnan was -2,636 yuan/ton and -3,436 yuan/ton respectively; the profit of polysilicon enterprises was -14.3 yuan/kg [1]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon's social inventory was 53.7 million tons, enterprise inventory was 17.1 million tons, industry inventory was 70.8 million tons, and futures warehouse receipt inventory was 25.0 million tons; the polysilicon's manufacturer inventory was 21.1 million tons [1]. - **Raw Material Cost**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes in different regions had different changes [1]. - **Polysilicon (Photovoltaic)**: The prices of polysilicon - related products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA had different changes, and the profit of polysilicon enterprises was -14.3 yuan/kg [1]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC was 10,700 yuan/ton, and the profit of DMC enterprises was -1,186 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of ADC12 was 20,850 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises was 100 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On September 9th, Jinko Energy announced that its subsidiary Zhejiang Jinko Energy Co., Ltd. planned to sell 80% of the equity of its subsidiary Zhejiang Jinko New Materials Co., Ltd. to Diker Co., Ltd. for 80 million yuan [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon was 0, and that of polysilicon was 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, where -2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On September 10, 2025, the main contract of soybean oil futures dropped by 1.92% to 8256 yuan/ton. The decline was due to multiple factors including strong expectations of international soybean harvest, increased domestic soybean arrivals, high oil - mill operating rates leading to rising inventories, weak demand in the traditional off - season, enhanced substitution by palm oil, and market sentiment. Investors should monitor international soybean market trends, domestic demand changes, and policy adjustments to seize short - selling opportunities [3]. - For stock index futures, with a doji candlestick on the chart, and considering news such as an 8 - month CPI decline of 0.4% year - on - year, a PPI decline of 2.9% year - on - year, and tightened account - opening conditions for mainland residents by the world's largest online brokerage, the market is expected to remain in high - level oscillations in the short term [6]. - For gold futures, as the US August non - farm payroll data was below expectations and there is a high probability of a Fed rate cut in September, which is positive for gold. With sufficient weekly - line adjustments, the price is expected to continue rising in the short term [11]. - For iron ore futures, with stable supply shipments, signs of steel mills'复产, high - level operation of hot metal, and approaching National Day, steel mills' restocking may support raw materials. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation range, and investors should watch for breakthroughs [14][15]. - For glass futures, daily melting is stable, factory inventories are accumulating, and downstream deep - processing orders' recovery is insufficient. Technically, it continued to adjust today, and a low - buying strategy can be adopted [18][19]. - For palm oil futures, due to large cumulative gains in the recent oil market, increased inventory pressure, and lack of demand support, the market's upward momentum has weakened, and profit - taking pressure has increased. It should be treated with a bearish and oscillatory view [22]. - For pulp futures, the pulp price in Shandong remained stable today, and port inventories started to decline slightly but remained at a medium - to - high level. There are expectations of a boost before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but no improvement has been seen yet. It is expected to remain in low - level oscillations, and short - term long positions are recommended [25]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Soybean Oil - On September 10, 2025, the main contract of soybean oil futures fell 1.92% to 8256 yuan/ton. Supply - side factors include strong international soybean harvest expectations, increased domestic soybean arrivals, and high oil - mill operating rates leading to rising inventories. Demand - side factors include weak demand in the traditional off - season, enhanced substitution by palm oil, and market sentiment. Investors should adjust strategies based on market and policy changes [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The market closed with a doji candlestick. News includes an 8 - month CPI decline of 0.4% year - on - year, a PPI decline of 2.9% year - on - year, and tightened account - opening conditions for mainland residents by the world's largest online brokerage. It is expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold - The US August non - farm payroll data was below expectations, and there is a high probability of a Fed rate cut in September, which is positive for gold. After sufficient weekly - line adjustments, the price is expected to rise in the short term [11]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Supply shipments are stable. Steel mills are showing signs of复产, and hot metal is expected to operate at a high level. With the approaching National Day, steel mills' restocking may support raw materials. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation range, and breakthroughs should be watched [14][15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - Daily melting is stable, factory inventories are accumulating, and downstream deep - processing orders' recovery is insufficient. Technically, it continued to adjust today, and a low - buying strategy can be adopted [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Palm Oil - Due to large cumulative gains in the recent oil market, increased inventory pressure, and lack of demand support, the market's upward momentum has weakened, and profit - taking pressure has increased. It should be treated with a bearish and oscillatory view [22]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong remained stable today, and port inventories started to decline slightly but remained at a medium - to - high level. There are expectations of a boost before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but no improvement has been seen yet. It is expected to remain in low - level oscillations, and short - term long positions are recommended [25].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report provides daily market analysis and trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, suggesting that most commodities will experience wide fluctuations or repeated oscillations [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Forecast**: Wide fluctuations [2][4] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of futures contract 12601 was 805 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of imported and domestic ores remained mostly stable, except for a 1 yuan increase in the price of Super Special ore (56.5%). Some basis and spread values changed slightly [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [4] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Trend Forecast**: Wide fluctuations [2][6][7] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 decreased, with trading volumes and positions changing. The spot prices in most regions declined. Some basis and spread values changed [7] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China exported 951.0 million tons of steel, a 3.3% month-on-month decrease; imports were 50.0 million tons, a 10.6% month-on-month increase. In the week of September 4, the production of rebar and hot-rolled coils decreased, inventories increased, and apparent demand decreased [8][9] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Forecast**: Wide fluctuations affected by market sentiment [2][10] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of some futures contracts increased, with changes in trading volumes and positions. Spot prices and various spreads changed [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 10, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese varied by region. A steel company's procurement price of 75B ferrosilicon decreased. A large steel group increased its tender volume for silicomanganese in September, and the tender price decreased. UMK lowered its manganese ore price for China in October [10][11][12] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Forecast**: Wide fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][14][15] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of JM2601 decreased, while J2601 increased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke changed, and some basis and spread values changed [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an action plan for stabilizing growth in the electronic information manufacturing industry from 2025 - 2026 [15] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [15] Logs - **Trend Forecast**: Repeated oscillations [2][17] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different futures contracts changed, with varying daily and weekly price and volume fluctuations. Spot prices remained mostly stable [18] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [20] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [20]

| | | 甲醇日评20250911: 低位震荡,关注低多机会 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 变化值 指标 单位 2025/9/9 2025/9/10 | | | | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 元/吨 | 2407.00 | 2398.00 | 9.00 | 0.38% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 元/吨 | 2409.00 | 2391.00 | 18.00 | 0.75% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 元/吨 | 2265.00 | 2247.00 | 18.00 | 0.80% | | | | 太仓 元/呼 | 2290.00 | 2275.00 | 15.00 | 0.66% | | | | 山东 元/吨 | 2390.00 | 2360.00 | 30.00 | 1.27% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 元/吨 | 2292.50 | 2275.00 | 17.50 | 0.77% | | 及其差 | 甲醇规赏价格 | 元/吨 ...

2025 年 9 月 11 日 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | EC2510 | 1,267.4 | -0.42% | 15,226 | 47,320 | 114 | 0.32 | 0.48 | | | EC2512 | 1,674.0 | -0.02% | 8,134 | 17,608 | 729 | 0.46 | 0.56 | | | EC2602 | 1,524.0 | 0.14% | 895 | 5,942 | 2 3 | 0.15 | 0.30 | | | EC2510 - EC2512 | -406.6 | | | EC2512 - E ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously Bearish [1] - L: Bearish Consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish Consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish Continuation [1] - PX: Cautiously Bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously Bearish [3] - Glass: Bearish Consolidation [3] - Soda Ash: Bearish Consolidation [3] 2. Core Views - Crude oil: Geopolitical factors slightly boost oil prices, but supply surplus remains the core driver, and oil prices are trending downward. [1][5][6] - LPG: The cost side is weak, and there is pressure on the upside of liquefied gas. [1][9] - L: Social inventory is slightly decreasing, and it is in a bearish consolidation phase. [1][15] - PP: Spot prices have stopped falling and stabilized, and it is in a bearish consolidation phase. [1][20] - PVC: Warehouse receipts continue to increase, and it is in a weak bottom - grinding phase. [1][25] - PX: The expectation of tight supply - demand balance is loosening, and the support from crude oil is weakening, with a cautious bearish view. [1][30] - PTA: The cost support is weakening while the supply - demand is in a tight balance, with a cautious bearish view. [2][33] - Ethylene Glycol: The cost support is weakening while the supply - demand is in a tight balance, with a cautious bearish view. [2][37] - Methanol: Supply - demand is loose, and there is port inventory accumulation. Pay attention to the opportunity to lay out long positions on the 01 contract at low prices. [2][41] - Urea: The fundamentals remain weak, and the Indian tender price is lower than expected. Hold short positions cautiously. [2][44] - Asphalt: High valuation and a weak cost side, maintaining a bearish view. [3] - Glass: In some regions, the sales of original sheets have improved, and spot prices have increased, but terminal demand is insufficient, in a bearish consolidation phase. [3] - Soda Ash: The spot price in Shahe has decreased, and the basis has weakened. It is in a bearish consolidation phase. [3] 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded and adjusted. WTI decreased by 0.32%, Brent increased by 0.56%, and SC increased by 1.51%. [5] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors slightly boosted oil prices, but OPEC+ plans to increase production in October, and the end of the US crude oil consumption season has led to a decrease in demand - side support. [6][7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [470 - 490] for SC. [8] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 9, the PG main contract closed at 4413 yuan/ton, up 0.55% month - on - month. [11] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction of liquefied gas itself is not significant, and its price is mainly pegged to the cost - side oil price. The cost side still has room to decline. [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4350 - 4450] for PG. [13] L - **Market Review**: The L01 contract closed at 7251 yuan/ton, up 0.1%. [16] - **Basic Logic**: North China's spot prices have slightly increased, and the basis has strengthened. Social inventory is slightly decreasing, and the demand side is strengthening. [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support at the integer - level mark and try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [7200 - 7300] for L. [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP01 contract closed at 6965 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. [21] - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices are flat, and the market is fluctuating narrowly. Supply is expected to decrease this week, while demand is increasing. [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long at low prices. Focus on the range of [6900 - 7000] for PP. [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V01 contract closed at 4847 yuan/ton, down 0.9%. [26] - **Basic Logic**: The market is in a contango structure, and inventory accumulation pressure is high. Supply is strong, and demand is weak. [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about chasing short positions due to low - valuation support. Focus on the range of [4750 - 4900] for PVC. [28] PX - **Market Review**: On September 5, the PX spot price was 6781 yuan/ton, down 123 yuan/ton. [31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices are slightly increasing their loads, while demand - side PTA processing fees are low, and the supply - demand tight balance is expected to loosen. [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and sell call options. Focus on the range of [6700 - 6810] for PX511. [32] PTA - **Market Review**: On September 5, the PTA spot price in East China was 4585 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. [34] - **Basic Logic**: Recent device maintenance has led to a significant decline in operating loads. Future new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices will increase supply - side pressure. Demand is showing signs of recovery. [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and pay attention to the opportunity to expand PTA processing fees. Focus on the range of [4660 - 4710] for TA01. [36] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On September 5, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4488 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton. [38] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices are slightly increasing their loads, and overseas devices have little change. Demand is improving, but the cost side is weak. [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and pay attention to the opportunity to go short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4290 - 4340] for EG01. [40] Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 5, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2310 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton. [41] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Cost support is weakening. [42] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to lay out long positions on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of [2370 - 2400] for MA01. [43] Urea - **Market Review**: The URO1 contract closed at 1713 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton. [44] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is expected to be loose, demand is weak domestically and strong overseas. The Indian tender price is lower than expected. [44] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Urea fluctuates within a range. Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on the 01 contract at high prices. [44] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: High valuation and a weak cost side, with an overall bearish view. [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. [3] Glass - **Basic Logic**: In some regions, the sales of original sheets have improved, but terminal demand is insufficient. Supply is under pressure. [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see as the market fluctuates at a low level. [3] Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The spot price in Shahe has decreased, and the basis has weakened. Supply - demand remains loose. [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go short on rebounds as the supply - demand remains in a loose pattern. [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a short - term directional movement but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bias towards a short - term directional movement but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, implying a bias towards a short - term directional movement but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state and the current trading floor has poor operability, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state and the current trading floor has poor operability, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] Core Views - The bearish trend in the crude oil market continues, and a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended, with the previously recommended combination strategy of shorting crude oil and holding out - of - the - money call options to be continued [2] - The FU2601 contract of fuel oil shows a sideways consolidation pattern, and the decline in warehouse receipts provides some support for fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil [3] - The asphalt price has a clear support below, and the long positions laid out at the beginning of the week are advised to be held [4] - The international LPG market remains strong, and the domestic market is mainly in a sideways movement due to the support from import costs and the suppression of high - volume warehouse receipts on the futures market [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose and then fell, with the SC10 contract up 0.58%. The market supply - demand surplus will increase marginally, and the pressure will be concentrated from the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year. The bearish trend continues, and a short - on - rallies strategy is recommended [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The FU2601 contract is in a sideways consolidation range of 2780 - 2795 yuan/ton. The LU2511 contract rose to 3400 yuan/ton and then pulled back. The continuous decline in warehouse receipts provides support for both [3] Asphalt - The asphalt price followed the crude oil to rise slightly at the end of the session. The shipment volume slowed down in the first week of September, but the impact is expected to be short - term. The overall inventory level is flat compared to the previous period, and long positions are advised to be held [4] LPG - The international LPG market is strong due to strong procurement demand in India and East Asia. The domestic market is supported by import costs, but the high - volume warehouse receipts on the futures market limit the upward momentum, and it mainly moves sideways [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Soybean/Meal**: The decline of US soybeans reflects the impact of demand, but the downside space is limited. Brazilian soybeans also have limited deep - decline space. In China, there is still supply pressure and inventory pressure on soybean meal [2][4][6]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the global sugar market is expected to enter a stockpiling stage, and prices are expected to rebound in the short - term after falling to a low level. In the domestic market, although domestic sugar inventory is low, a large amount of imported sugar may put some pressure on prices [11]. - **Oils and Fats**: Overnight, US soybean oil fell, and the domestic oil market followed the weakness. Malaysian palm oil is expected to increase production and stockpile in August, while Indonesian inventory is low. US soybeans have a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Domestic soybean oil is in the process of stockpiling, and rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory [19]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn futures are falling, but there is still room for rebound. In China, the supply of corn is still relatively short, and the spot price of corn may continue to fall [23][28]. - **Pigs**: The overall supply pressure of pigs has decreased, but due to the relatively high inventory and high slaughter weight, there is still some pressure on prices [34]. - **Peanuts**: The supply of peanuts is still small, and the market is stable. The 01 peanut contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term [38]. - **Eggs**: The supply - side pressure has been alleviated, but the over - supply pattern has not changed. The demand is expected to increase slightly before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day [46]. - **Apples**: The 10 - month contract of apples may fall in the short - term, but the decline space is limited. The market may focus on the excellent fruit rate [55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: As new cotton enters the acquisition stage, there will be selling hedging pressure on the market. The peak season demand is expected to have a limited impact on the market [59]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal - **Market Conditions**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.47% to 1048.5 cents/bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.1% to 292 dollars/short ton [2]. - **Related Information**: The estimated US 2025/26 soybean production is 4.271 billion bushels, and the estimated yield is 53.3 bushels/acre. As of September 7, the EU's 2025/26 soybean imports were 2.44 million tons, and soybean meal imports were 3.63 million tons. In Argentina, there may be a new political crisis. As of September 5, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.3039 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.76% [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long positions can be arranged at low prices for distant - month contracts of soybean and rapeseed meal. Expand the MRM05 spread. Buy call options [7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: ICE US raw sugar and London white sugar both rose [8]. - **Related Information**: In the first week of September, Brazil exported 769,000 tons of sugar and molasses. The 2025/26 German beet refined sugar production is expected to decrease by 4.9% to 4.4 million tons. Domestic processing sugar prices are stable with a slight decline [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for arbitrage and options [12][13][15]. Oils and Fats - **Market Conditions**: CBOT US soybean oil and BMD Malaysian palm oil both fell [15]. - **Related Information**: As of August 31, 209,033 oil palm small farmers in Malaysia obtained MSPO certification. The estimated US 2025/26 soybean production is 4.271 billion bushels, and the estimated ending inventory is 288 million bushels. Ukraine's rapeseed exports may be suspended for at least a week. Canada's rapeseed inventory decreased, while exports increased [16][17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the callback and then try to go long in batches. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for arbitrage and options [20][21]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Market Conditions**: CBOT corn futures fell [23]. - **Related Information**: The main reason for the decline is the start of the US corn harvest and traders' position - closing before the USDA monthly report. The US corn main - producing states are expected to have higher - than - normal temperatures and lower - than - normal precipitation in the next 6 - 10 days. As of September 7, the US corn good - to - excellent rate was 68%, and the harvest rate was 4%. The North Port acquisition price is stable, while the North China spot price is falling [24][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on the 12 - month US corn contract on dips. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for the 01 corn contract. Expand the spread between 11 - month corn and starch lightly [29][30]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Pig prices are generally stable to declining, and the prices of piglets and sows are falling [33][34]. - **Related Information**: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" both decreased, and the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 1.2% [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on the near - month contracts on rallies. Reverse - arbitrage the LH15 contract. Buy call options for distant - month contracts [35]. Peanuts - **Market Conditions**: The average price of national peanut kernels is stable with a slight increase, the operating rate of oil mills is low, and the prices of peanut oil and peanut meal are stable [36][37]. - **Related Information**: As of September 4, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises decreased [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 11 - month and 01 - month peanut contracts are expected to fluctuate at the bottom. Try to go long on the 05 - month peanut contract lightly. Sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [39][41]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: The average price of eggs in the main production areas and main sales areas rose. The national mainstream egg prices are stable with some increases [43][44]. - **Related Information**: In August, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.365 billion, an increase of 0.09 billion from the previous month. The egg sales volume in the representative sales areas increased by 3% in the week of August 28. The production and circulation inventories decreased [45][46]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy is provided in the report. Apples - **Market Conditions**: The national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory decreased, and the export volume increased. The spot price is stable [49][50]. - **Related Information**: The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants in Qixia decreased by 0.1 yuan/jin compared with last week [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options [55]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Conditions**: ICE US cotton rose [56]. - **Related Information**: In August, China's textile and clothing exports decreased by 0.1% month - on - month and 5% year - on - year. As of September 8, the ICE deliverable No. 2 cotton contract inventory remained unchanged. As of September 6, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 86.9% [57][58]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that US cotton will fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly weakly. Go short on rallies. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for arbitrage and options [59].

| | | 甲醇日评20250910: 低位震荡,关注低多机会 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/9/9 | 2025/9/8 | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对目) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2398.00 | 2408.00 | -10.00 | -0.42% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2391.00 | 2402.00 | -11.00 | -0.46% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2247.00 | 2248.00 | -1.00 | -0.04% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2275.00 | 2275.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2360.00 | 2345.00 | 15.00 | 0.64% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2275.00 | 2265.00 | 10.00 | ...