2026 年 2 月 4 日 生猪：旺季不旺，现货压力扩大 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 | 格 | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | | 12630 | -250 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | | 12000 | -100 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | | 12460 | 0 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 | 格 | 比 同 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | | 11160 | -60 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | | 11600 | -35 | | | | 生猪2607 | 元/吨 | | 12170 | -60 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2026年2月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面： 外媒1月21日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年11月，全球锌板产量为119.7万吨,消费量为116.8万吨,供应过剩 2.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌板产量为1275.61万吨,消费量为1310.65万吨,供应 短缺35.04万吨.11月份,全球锌矿产量为106.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌矿产量为 1214.19万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货25090，基差+130；偏多。 3、库存：2月3日LME锌库存较上日减少125吨至108975吨，2月3日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日增加100吨至28867吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡走势，收20日均线之上,20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term trend of oscillation and an intraday view of being on the strong side [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is strong. The reference view is to run strongly [1][5] - **Core Logic**: Domestic Yunnan and Hainan natural rubber producing areas have entered the off - season, and Southeast Asian producing areas will also enter the low - production season. Downstream domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. After the bearish sentiment in the energy and chemical sector is digested, supported by the optimistic supply - demand fundamentals of the rubber market, the Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and strong trend on Tuesday night, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Wednesday [5] 3.2 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is strong. The reference view is to run strongly [1][7] - **Core Logic**: The supply and demand of butadiene, the core raw material of domestic synthetic rubber, have recently tightened, boosting its price to rise significantly. Butadiene accounts for over 70% of the production cost of synthetic rubber, and the rigid increase in the cost side provides a solid foundation for the futures price. After the bearish sentiment in the energy and chemical sector is digested, supported by the optimistic supply - demand fundamentals of the rubber market, the domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and strong trend on Tuesday night, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Wednesday [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term investment rating of "partial shock" for the coke industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly restricted by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policy orientation. The overall supply - demand is weak during the seasonal inventory accumulation stage with the continued increase of coking coal and coke inventories. The pre - holiday restocking of downstream steel mills is nearing the end, leading to a further decline in coke demand. However, coking is in continuous loss, so coke enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices, and there are still expectations for subsequent policies at the macro - level. Overall, the market is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and a low - buying strategy can be adopted, while attention should be paid to the support near the previous low and the pressure near the previous high [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - As of January 30, the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 133,000 tons to 1.01235 million tons, reaching a 7.5 - month high with a year - on - year decline of 3.44% [1] - The profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 55 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shandong quasi - first - grade coke turned positive to 2 yuan/ton, that of Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is 0 yuan/ton, that of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke is - 41 yuan/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 92 yuan/ton [1] - This week, the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.32% to 79% week - on - week and 1.02% year - on - year. The profit rate decreased by 1.3% to 39.39% week - on - week. The blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate slightly dropped to 85.47%, and the daily average pig - iron output decreased by 12,000 tons to 227,980 tons week - on - week [1] - As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply of upstream coking coal is expected to decline. The coking coal inventory of mines decreased by 72,000 tons to 267,200 tons, and the comprehensive coking coal inventory increased by 460,000 tons to 2.86434 million tons week - on - week, with the year - on - year decline narrowing to 8.57% [1] - Shanghai has launched the work of purchasing second - hand housing for affordable rental housing, and Fujian has implemented phased subsidy policies such as universal housing purchase subsidies, subsidies for multi - child families, and subsidies for commercial and office buildings [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PDH device restarts partially, and supply-demand drivers gradually weaken. The supply of propylene is expected to increase, and the tight supply situation is expected to ease. The downstream demand is supported by rigid demand, but the follow - up of demand may be limited due to cost pressure. The cost - side support for propylene is gradually weakening. The future main drivers lie in the trends of crude oil and propane on the cost side and the maintenance status of major PDH devices [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the Shandong basis of propylene, the spread of propylene 03 - 04 contracts, the spread of PL03 - 05 contracts, and the market prices of propylene in East China, Shandong, and South China [6][12][14] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Figures show the difference between China CFR propylene and Japan CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil main refinery capacity utilization, the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, and propylene import profit [20][23][35] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Figures cover the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][48][53] 4. Propylene Inventory - Figures display the in - plant inventory of propylene and PP powder [64]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the recovery of domestic demand is sluggish. The PVC2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4956 - 5072. It's necessary to continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. [9][13] - There are both positive and negative factors in the PVC market. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - On February 2, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4860 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 154 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is considered bearish. [10] - The factory inventory was 29.0183 tons, a decrease of 5.81% month - on - month. The calcium carbide method factory inventory was 21.1173 tons, a decrease of 5.71% month - on - month, and the ethylene method factory inventory was 7.901 tons, a decrease of 6.09% month - on - month. The social inventory was 58.466 tons, an increase of 1.41% month - on - month. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 4.8 days, a decrease of 5.88% month - on - month, showing a neutral situation. [10] - MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20, which is considered bullish. [10] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data Supply Side - According to Longzhong statistics, the PVC output in December 2025 was 2.137356 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79%. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises this week was 78.93%, with a 0.00 - percentage - point month - on - month increase. The output of calcium carbide method enterprises was 347,160 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.73%, and the output of ethylene method enterprises was 136,110 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.96%. The supply pressure increased this week, and it's expected that the maintenance will decrease next week, with a slight increase in scheduled production. [7] Demand Side - The overall downstream operating rate was 44.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, but higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 31.52%, unchanged month - on - month, and higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 37%, unchanged month - on - month, and higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 65.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35 percentage points, and higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 80.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.09 percentage points, and higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is not competitive. The current demand may remain sluggish. [8] Cost Side - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 744.17 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 6.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was 20.93 yuan/ton, turning from loss to profit with a month - on - month increase of 57.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 1864.73 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit decrease of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may face pressure. [8] Main Position - The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is considered bearish. [9] Expectation - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is strengthening, and the overall cost is strengthening. The supply pressure increased this week, and it's expected that the maintenance will decrease next week, with an increase in scheduled production. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. The current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics, and the PVC2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4956 - 5072. [9] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's market overview data, including prices, price changes, and inventory data of different types of PVC enterprises, monthly spreads, and downstream operating rates. [15][16] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - It includes the analysis of the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, open interest, and spread analysis of the main contract of PVC futures. [18][21][24] 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It analyzes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and production volume of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit of the chlor - alkali industry in the calcium carbide method production process. [27][30][33][36][39] - **PVC Supply Trend**: It analyzes the production capacity utilization rate, profit, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly output of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production. [41][43][44] - **Demand Trend**: It analyzes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and the operating rate of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin). It also analyzes the relationship between the PVC market and the real estate market, social financing scale, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment. [46][49][56] - **Inventory**: It analyzes the inventory data of exchange warrants, calcium carbide method factory warehouses, ethylene method factory warehouses, social inventories, and production enterprise inventory days. [59][60] - **Ethylene Method**: It analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, ethylene method FOB price difference, and vinyl chloride import price difference. [61][62] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly supply - demand data of PVC in 2024 - 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference. [64][65]

Group 1: Report Title and General Situation - The report is titled "Pigs: Pre-holiday Rally Falls Short of Expectations, Pressure Increases" and is dated February 3, 2026 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the given content Group 3: Core View - The pre - holiday rally of pigs is less than expected, and the pressure is expanding [1] Group 4: Fundamental Data Summary - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 12,880 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 200 yuan/ton; Sichuan's is 12,100 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; Guangdong's is 12,460 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 400 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures Prices**: The price of Live Pig 2603 is 11,220 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 55 yuan/ton; Live Pig 2605 is 11,650 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 10 yuan/ton; Live Pig 2607 is 12,345 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 40 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Live Pig 2603 is 69,198 lots with an increase of 13,547 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 101,717 lots with a decrease of 16,937 lots from the previous day; for Live Pig 2605, the trading volume is 37,941 lots with an increase of 8,804 lots, and the open interest is 129,133 lots with an increase of 4,384 lots; for Live Pig 2607, the trading volume is 5,125 lots with an increase of 838 lots, and the open interest is 47,024 lots with an increase of 358 lots [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of Live Pig 2603 is 1,660 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 145 yuan/ton; Live Pig 2605 is 1,230 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 190 yuan/ton; Live Pig 2607 is 535 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 160 yuan/ton. The 3 - 5 spread of live pigs is - 430 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 45 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 7 spread is - 695 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2] Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, with a range of [-2, 2]. -2 means the most bearish, and 2 means the most bullish [3]

尿素：短期横盘整理 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 | | --- | 尿素基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,787 | 1,790 | - 3 -35455 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,789 | 1,798 | - 9 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 161,474 | 196,929 | | | | （05合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 240,285 | 246,294 | -6009 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 11,256 | 12,690 | -1434 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 577,833 | 708,274 | -130441 | | | | 山东地区基差 | | -17 | 0 | -17 | | | 基 差 | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 2 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 | 基本面支撑有限，焦煤低位震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 基本面驱动不足，焦炭区间震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 核心逻辑：根据钢联统计，1 月 30 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 77.1 万吨，周环 比基本持平，小幅增加 0.1 万吨。1 月 20 日~28 日期间，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤合计通关 9728 车， 蒙煤进口量仍维持高 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 2 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 现实格局偏弱，钢价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 商品情绪偏弱，黑色金属承压下行，相应的螺纹钢供需弱势运行，库存增幅扩大，螺纹产量持 续回升并至相对高位，供应压力有所增加，但春节临近短流程钢厂将减产，关注后续变化。与此同 时，螺纹钢需求表现偏弱，高频需求指标 ...