商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 06 日 鸡蛋：调整阶段 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 | （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2512 | 3,217 | 1.93 | | 208,649 | 7,887 | | | 鸡蛋2601 | 3,509 | 1.23 | | 69,827 | 6,222 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋12-1价差 | | -168 | | -193 | | | | 鸡蛋12-5价差 | | -292 | | -348 | | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 2.90 | | 2.90 | | | | 河北现货价格 | | 2.69 | | 2.69 | | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 2.80 | | 2.80 | | | | 湖北现货价格 | ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - The price of Shanghai lead may oscillate and decline due to weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm at high prices, improved supply tightness, and significant upward pressure on lead prices [1]. - Zinc prices lack continuous upward momentum due to weak domestic terminals and hawkish remarks on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. However, in the medium - term, the zinc price may be supported as the mine end tightens in the fourth quarter, and there may be opportunities to go long after a short - term correction [1]. Summary by Directory Information - On November 3, 2025, the Jinpo Lead - Zinc Mine of Puding Derong Mining Co., Ltd., a wholly - owned subsidiary of Yunnan Luoping Zinc & Electricity Co., Ltd., obtained a new "Safety Production License" with a valid period from November 3, 2025, to November 2, 2028, and a permitted lead - zinc underground mining capacity of 200,000 tons/year. The mine has started preparations for resumption of production [1]. - On November 4, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of $24.4 per ton with an open interest of 151,517 lots, an increase of 1,388 lots [1]. - Xingye Yinxi released its Q3 2025 report. From January to September 2025, the company produced 5,651.48 tons of tin ore (a 13.12% year - on - year decrease), 212.16 tons of silver ore (an 18.98% increase), 45,783.81 tons of zinc ore (a 1.92% increase), 13,991.67 tons of lead ore (a 2.61% increase), 1,832.67 tons of copper ore (an 18.83% decrease), 1,109.57 tons of antimony ore (a 9.83% decrease), 215,800 tons of iron ore (a 16.42% decrease), 124.57 tons of bismuth ore (an 18.33% increase), and 0.074 tons of gold ore (a 221.74% increase) [1]. - On November 4, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of $138.78 per ton with an open interest of 227,115 lots, an increase of 3,686 lots [1]. Investment Strategy - For lead, continue to hold previous short positions [1]. - For zinc, wait for opportunities to go long after a correction [1]. Transaction Volume and Open Interest - For lead, the trading volume of the active futures contract was 46,416 lots (a 42.05% increase), the open interest was 65,699 lots (a 0.59% decrease), and the volume - to - open - interest ratio was 0.71 (a 42.90% increase) [1]. - For zinc, the trading volume of the active futures contract was 100,837 lots (a 33.02% decrease), the open interest was 112,477 lots (a 3.80% decrease), and the volume - to - open - interest ratio was 0.90 (a 30.37% decrease) [1]. Inventory - The LME lead inventory was 208,600 tons with no change, and the Shanghai lead warrant inventory was 21,704 tons (a 0.27% increase) [1]. - The LME zinc inventory was 34,000 tons with no change, and the Shanghai zinc warrant inventory was 68,423 tons (a 0.33% increase) [1]. Lead and Zinc Price Analysis - For lead, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,325 yuan/ton (a 0.43% increase), the closing price of the futures main contract was 17,475 yuan/ton (a 0.34% increase), the Shanghai lead basis was - 150 yuan/ton (an increase of 15 yuan/ton), and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.65 (a 0.34% increase) [1]. - For zinc, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,430 yuan/ton (a 0.36% decrease), the closing price of the futures main contract was 22,650 yuan/ton (a 0.09% decrease), the Shanghai zinc basis was - 220 yuan/ton (a decrease of 60 yuan/ton), and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.36 (a 0.09% decrease) [1].

2025 年 11 月 6 日 LPG：需求改善有限，盘面估值偏高 丙烯：上游装置亏损，关注减产操作 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2512 | 4,278 | 0.82% | 4,231 | -1.10% | | 期货价格 | PG2601 | 4,190 | 0.67% | 4,155 | -0.84% | | | PL2601 | 5,945 | -0.93% | 5,893 | -0.87% | | | PL2602 | 5,995 | -0.75% | 5,933 | -1.03% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2512 | 111,556 | 16990 | 102,755 | -3626 | | 持仓&成交 | PG2601 | 25,648 | 10062 | 34,165 | 2548 ...

| 幅) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (30.00) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | % | % | % | % ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber 2601 and synthetic rubber 2601 are expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and weakly oscillatory respectively, and the intraday view also being weakly oscillatory [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Wednesday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory and stable trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.57% to 14,905 yuan/ton, but the continued rise was blocked by the 5 - day moving average [5] - **Driving Logic**: After the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents in Busan, South Korea, the positive progress in economic and trade tariffs was slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - positive sentiment was digested, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and the market showed profit - taking. After the rubber market returned to the market dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, the rubber price was under pressure. It is expected that on Thursday, the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract may maintain a weakly oscillatory trend [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Wednesday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2601 contract showed an oscillatory and stable trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.59% to 10,145 yuan/ton, but the continued rise was blocked by the 5 - day moving average [7] - **Driving Logic**: After the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents in Busan, South Korea, the positive progress in economic and trade tariffs was slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - positive sentiment was digested, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and the market showed profit - taking. The market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated", and investors' sentiment has become cautious. It is expected that on Thursday, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2601 contract may maintain a weakly oscillatory trend [7]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the investment rating of the hot-rolled coil industry in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the HC2601 contract declined weakly. The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the additional tariffs on imported goods originating from the United States. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils continued to increase slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.65%. Terminal demand increased and inventory decreased. Overall, as the macro - level positive factors faded and the decline in furnace materials weakened cost support, the hot-rolled coil market remained sluggish. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were moving downward. Operationally, the market is expected to be oscillating with a downward bias, and attention should be paid to rhythm and risk control [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,253 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the position volume was 1,373,091 lots, down 23,039 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 77,490 lots, up 7,802 lots; the HC1 - 5 contract spread was - 7 yuan/ton, unchanged; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 130,301 tons, unchanged; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 229 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [3]. 2. Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,310 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; in Guangzhou, it was 3,270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Wuhan, it was 3,360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin, it was 3,200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 57 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 90 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 775 yuan/wet ton, down 10 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 145.3924 million tons, up 1.1859 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 374,400 tons, up 700 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.2888 million tons, down 43,900 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets was 1.1957 million tons, down 103,900 tons [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.73%, down 3 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 88.59%, down 1.33 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 3.2356 million tons, up 11,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils was 82.65%, up 0.28 percentage points. The inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 776,600 tons, up 3,100 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 3.2893 million tons, down 86,400 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.92 million tons, up 910,000 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 3.2758 million vehicles, up 460,400 vehicles; the monthly sales volume was 3.2264 million vehicles, up 369,800 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 10.1276 million units, up 674,400 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 11.7849 million units, up 1.653 million units [3]. 6. Industry News - In late October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 19.99 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.817 million tons, a daily - on - daily decrease of 9.8%; 19.18 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.744 million tons, a daily - on - daily decrease of 5.8%; and 21.94 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.995 million tons, a daily - on - daily increase of 0.9%. The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the additional tariffs on imported goods originating from the United States, suspending the implementation of the 24% additional tariff rate on the United States for one year and retaining the 10% additional tariff rate [3]. 7. Key Points of Attention - The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of hot - rolled coils on Thursday [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it offers specific investment suggestions for various futures contracts in different sectors. 2) Core Views - The A-share market is in a repricing adjustment after the quarterly report release, with trading sentiment being cold and the direction unclear [2]. - Bond interest rates are expected to have a lower fluctuation range, and investors can consider appropriate long - positions on 10 - year Treasury bonds on dips [2]. - Precious metals are under pressure from liquidity tightening and a stronger dollar, with gold and silver showing different short - term trends [2]. - The shipping index is expected to be volatile in the short term, and long positions on the 12 - contract are recommended on dips [2]. - The steel and iron ore markets have complex supply - demand situations, with different trading strategies for each contract [2]. - The energy and chemical sector has diverse trends, with some products like MEG expected to decline and others having different trading opportunities [2]. - The agricultural product market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and policy details, with different trading suggestions for each product [2]. - Special and new energy products also have their own price trends and corresponding trading strategies [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the market's upward movement and profit - taking, there is a slight correction. It is recommended to wait and see as the direction is not clear [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank's bond - buying scale is lower than expected. The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. Long positions on dips and positive arbitrage strategies are suggested [2]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold has short - term downward pressure but buying support. It can be bought on dips below 3900 dollars (900 yuan). Silver may fall to the previous low of 45 dollars (11000 yuan), and short - term observation is recommended [2]. Commodity Futures - **Shipping Futures**: The container shipping index (European line) is short - term volatile, and long positions on the 12 - contract are recommended on dips [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore Futures**: For steel, a long - coal and short - coil strategy is recommended for the January 2026 contract. For iron ore, short positions are recommended on rallies for the 2601 contract, with a reference range of 760 - 810, and a 1 - 5 positive arbitrage is also suggested [2]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Different products have different trends. For example, PX and PTA have limited rebound space, and short positions on rallies are recommended; MEG is expected to decline, and holding out - of - the - money call options and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage are suggested [2]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: Products like soybeans, corn, and palm oil have different price trends and trading strategies. For example, long positions in the 2601 soybean contract should be held cautiously, and the palm oil may test the 8500 - yuan support [2]. - **Special and New Energy Futures**: Glass offers short - long opportunities by observing the spot market; industrial silicon and polysilicon have price fluctuation ranges, and lithium carbonate is expected to be weak [2].

Report Overview - Date: November 5, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to experience weak oscillations due to sector sentiment [2][7] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide - range fluctuations influenced by sector sentiment and supply - demand dynamics [2][11] - Coke and coking coal are predicted to fluctuate at high levels [2][14] - Logs are expected to have repeated oscillations [2][16] 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 775.5 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan or 0.89%. The positions increased by 12,824 hands. Spot prices of various iron ore types decreased by 2 yuan/ton, except for domestic ores which remained unchanged. The basis and some spreads changed slightly [4] - **News**: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 [5] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's closing prices of RB2601 and HC2601 futures were 3,044 yuan/ton and 3,265 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan (-1.42%) and 34 yuan (-1.03%) respectively. Spot prices in major cities decreased. The basis increased, and some spreads changed [7] - **News**: In mid - October 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel decreased by 0.9%, pig iron by 1.3%, and steel increased by 0.8%. On October 30, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed certain changes. Five departments supported commercial real estate REITs issuance. The 15th Five - Year Plan proposed directions for the steel industry. In September, China's steel exports increased while imports also rose slightly [8][9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The basis and various spreads changed [11] - **News**: Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the centralized cancellation date of ferrosilicon and urea in February 2026. There were price quotes and electricity price changes in the ferrosilicon and manganese - silicon markets. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities were announced [11][12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of coking coal and coke decreased. Some spot prices of coking coal increased, while others remained unchanged. Coke spot prices were mostly stable. The basis and spreads changed [14] - **News**: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 [15] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [15] Logs - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different log contracts showed different degrees of decline. Trading volumes and positions also changed significantly. Spot prices of most log types were stable, with a small number showing slight decreases [17] - **News**: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 [19] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The methanol market continues to show a weak and volatile trend. The price of methanol is relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefins, and the short - term upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream restocking drive. The inventory turning point may occur around mid - November, and the subsequent driving force may come from possible supply reductions, such as the gas - restriction expectation in Iran. It is recommended to wait before going long on methanol, and the current trading strategy is to stay on the sidelines [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Basis - **Futures Prices**: MA01 dropped from 2180 yuan/ton on October 31st to 2143 yuan/ton on November 3rd, a decrease of 1.70%; MA05 decreased from 2260 yuan/ton to 2239 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.93%; MA09 declined from 2240 yuan/ton to 2228 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Prices in most regions declined, with the largest drop in Taicang, from 2157.50 yuan/ton to 2097.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.78%. Prices in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei remained unchanged [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA decreased from - 22.50 yuan/ton to - 45.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Raw Material Prices - **Coal Prices**: The prices of coal with different calorific values increased. The price of Ordos Q5500 increased by 3.14%, Datong Q5500 by 2.35%, and Yulin Q6000 by 1.59% [1]. - **Natural Gas Prices**: The industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1]. 3.3 Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: The profit of coal - based methanol decreased by 14.24% from 210.70 yuan/ton to 180.70 yuan/ton, while the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained at - 1100 yuan/ton [1]. - **Downstream Profit**: The profit of Northwest MTO decreased by 666.67%, while the profit of East China MTO increased by 12.80%. The profits of most downstream products such as acetic acid, MTBE, formaldehyde, and erquying increased [1]. 3.4 Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2601 weakened, opening at 2182 yuan/ton, closing at 2143 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 1186632 lots and open interest of 1400566, showing increasing volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign**: A 2.3 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country is under maintenance, and the overall methanol plant operating load in this country is maintained at 74.45%. As of November 2nd, about 80,000 tons of methanol are scheduled to be shipped from this country in November [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: The fundamentals of nickel are weak with inventory reduction pressure, but the valuation is at a low level. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate at a low level. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. - Stainless steel: The fundamentals are loose, and the cost support is weak. It is expected that stainless steel will fluctuate weakly. The recommended trading strategy is to hold short positions [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market Data - **Futures Contracts**: On November 3, 2025, for Shanghai nickel futures, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts were 122060.00 yuan/ton, 120590.00 yuan/ton, 121180.00 yuan/ton, and 121360.00 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume of the active contract was 97352.00 hands (-1139), and the open interest was 108671.00 hands (-3846) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 123050.00 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 124300.00 yuan/ton [2]. - **LME Market**: The official spot price of LME 3 - month nickel was 15175.00 dollars/ton (-65), the closing price of the electronic disk was 15250.00 dollars/ton, and the closing price of the physical trading was 15226.00 dollars/ton. The trading volume was 5178.00 hands. The total LME nickel inventory was 251238.00 tons (648) [2]. Stainless Steel Market Data - **Futures Contracts**: On November 3, 2025, for Shanghai stainless steel futures, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts were 12610.00 yuan/ton, 12630.00 yuan/ton, 12685.00 yuan/ton, and 12705.00 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume of the active contract was 107662.00 hands (-12218), and the open interest was 77047.00 hands (-4967) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) was 13450.00 yuan/ton (-50), and the average price of 316L/2B coil (Wuxi) was 25150.00 yuan/ton (-150) [2]. - **Inventory**: The total stainless steel spot inventory was 904700.00 tons, including 2200.00 tons of 200 - series, 613600.00 tons of 300 - series (+900), and 116800.00 tons of 400 - series (-2000) [2]. Industry News - Ambatovy project in Madagascar, operated by Sumitomo Corp, is running smoothly despite recent political unrest. The project aims to produce about 35,000 tons of nickel this fiscal year, with about 15,000 tons produced in the first half - year, similar to the same period last year. Equipment maintenance is planned for November [2]. - In September 2025, the nickel ore export volume of the Philippines was 7.7698 million tons, including 5.57155 million tons to China and 2.19825 million tons to Indonesia [2]. Market Logic - **Nickel**: On November 3, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated within a range. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. On the supply side, nickel ore prices were flat, port inventories decreased, nickel - iron plants' losses deepened, and nickel - iron stocks accumulated. On the demand side, ternary production, stainless steel production, and alloy and electroplating demand increased. Overall, the nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory reduction pressure, but the price is at a low level [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: On November 3, the main contract of stainless steel fluctuated downward. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. The supply increased in October, and the 300 - series production decreased. The terminal demand was weak, and the prices of high - carbon ferrochrome and high - nickel pig iron fell. The fundamentals are loose, and the cost support is weak [2]. Trading Strategies - **Nickel**: The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The recommended trading strategy is to hold short positions [2].