Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported that as of the end of May 2025, the broad money supply (M2) reached 325.78 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 108.91 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, indicating a recovery in short-term trading activities among enterprises [1] - The total social financing stock was 426.16 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, and the incremental social financing for the first five months was 18.63 trillion yuan, exceeding the previous year by 3.83 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - In May, the balance of RMB loans increased by 7.1% year-on-year, with new loans amounting to 620 billion yuan, although the growth rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Analysts suggest that the current economy is at a critical stage of transitioning between old and new growth drivers, requiring a shift in monetary and fiscal policies from "quantity" to "mechanism" integration [2] - It is anticipated that in the third quarter, the implementation of loan interest subsidies for equipment upgrades will marginally improve manufacturing investment, facilitating financial support for the real economy [2]

Summary of Financial Data for May 2025 Industry Overview - The financial data for May 2025 indicates a significant impact from government financing, particularly through special treasury bonds and local government bonds, which have contributed notably to social financing [1][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Government Financing Support**: Government financing remains a primary support for social financing, with special treasury bonds and local government bonds providing strong backing. The fiscal expenditure has been more robust compared to the same period in previous years [3]. 2. **Short-term Loans Increase**: There has been a year-on-year increase in short-term loans for enterprises, likely due to heightened short-term funding needs following tariff relaxations. This trend mirrors data from March 2025 [2][4]. 3. **Corporate Bond Financing Growth**: The issuance of technology innovation bonds has driven an increase in corporate bond financing, indicating a positive trend in this area [2][4]. 4. **Weakness in Medium to Long-term Loans**: Despite the increase in short-term loans, medium to long-term loans for enterprises remain low, reflecting a weak investment sentiment among businesses due to uncertainties surrounding tariff policies [2][4]. 5. **Non-bank Deposit Growth**: Non-bank deposits have continued to show high growth, potentially due to a shift of private sector deposits towards wealth management and other non-bank assets following a reduction in deposit rates [2][5]. 6. **M1 Growth Recovery**: The M1 money supply has seen a rebound in growth, driven by an increase in corporate demand deposits, aligning with the rise in short-term loans [2][5]. 7. **Concerns Over Deposit Trends**: The trend of converting current deposits into fixed-term deposits among government agencies has not shown significant improvement, which may affect future government procurement activities [2][5]. Additional Important Insights - The overall performance of financial data in May 2025 exceeded expectations, with the new social financing scale surpassing forecasts. Although new RMB loans were slightly below expectations, the actual performance, excluding bill financing, was still strong [2][6]. - The sustained high level of fund inflows from non-bank institutions has provided considerable support to the market, contributing to the positive overall financial data for the month [6].

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 社融同比增幅收窄，但金融支持并未减弱 ——2025 年 5 月社融数据点评 研究结论 事件：2025 年 6 月 13 日央行公布最新金融数据，2025 年 5 月社会融资规模增量为 22871 亿元，比上年同期多增 2248 亿元（上个月同比多增 12249 亿元）；社会融资规 模存量为 426.16 万亿元，同比增长 8.7%（前值 8.7%，后同）。 风险提示 ⚫ 贸易战升级背景下经济复苏不及预期的风险；海外货币政策超预期紧缩的风险。 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 16 日 | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | 曹靖楠 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S086052001 ...

Group 1: Social Financing and Credit Data - In May 2025, China's new social financing scale reached 22,894 billion RMB, exceeding the market expectation of 20,505 billion RMB and significantly higher than the previous month's 11,591 billion RMB[6] - New RMB loans in May 2025 amounted to 6,200 billion RMB, below the market expectation of 8,026 billion RMB and higher than the previous month's 2,800 billion RMB[6] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, maintaining a high growth level compared to the previous month[7] - Government bonds were a key support for social financing, with government bond financing in May 2025 reaching 14,633 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2,367 billion RMB[33] Group 2: M1 and M2 Trends - M1 growth in May 2025 was 2.3%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved liquidity in the economy[38] - M2 growth was 7.9%, slightly down from 8.0% in the previous month, reflecting a stable but slightly declining trend[38] - The gap between M1 and M2 growth rates has narrowed, suggesting a shift in deposit structures and liquidity dynamics[38] Group 3: Credit Performance and Structure - Total credit in May 2025 was weak, with new loans of 6,200 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 3,300 billion RMB, indicating cautious lending behavior[10] - Corporate loans showed a significant contraction, with new corporate loans at 5,300 billion RMB, down 2,100 billion RMB year-on-year[16] - Household loans saw mixed performance, with short-term loans decreasing by 208 billion RMB and medium to long-term loans increasing by 746 billion RMB, indicating a slight improvement in household credit conditions[19]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In May 2025, the total social financing increased by 22,894 billion yuan, which is 2,271 billion yuan more than the same period last year[2] - The stock growth rate of social financing recorded 8.7%, remaining unchanged from the previous value[2] - New RMB loans in May amounted to 6,200 billion yuan, which was lower than expected, indicating a need for improved effective financing demand[2] Group 2: Government Financing and Loan Trends - Government bonds increased by 14,633 billion yuan in May, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2,367 billion yuan, supporting social financing expansion[9] - Corporate loans increased by 5,300 billion yuan, but this was a year-on-year decrease of 2,100 billion yuan, influenced by global trade tensions[10] - Resident loans increased by 540 billion yuan, but this also represented a year-on-year decrease of 217 billion yuan, showing weak leverage willingness post-interest rate cuts[10] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Policy Implications - M2 growth rate in May recorded 7.9%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, likely due to slowed credit expansion[14] - M1 growth rate improved by 0.8 percentage points to 2.3%, reflecting the impact of recent financial support policies on market confidence[14] - Future strategies should focus on enhancing fiscal efforts and coordinating monetary policy to stimulate financing willingness in the real economy[19] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks include potential underperformance of policy implementation, slower-than-expected economic recovery, and unexpected developments in US-China trade tensions[21]

Group 1 - Several banks have introduced new service fees to cope with the pressure on net interest margins, including UHQ Bank and Suzhou Bank, as part of a necessary measure to seek "cost reduction and revenue increase" in a low-interest environment [1] - Local regulatory authorities have implemented prohibitive measures against "fancy" deposit solicitation practices, aiming to maintain competitive order in the deposit market and reduce banks' liability costs [1] - The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange have allowed banks in Fujian Province to handle cross-border RMB payment services for Taiwanese residents involved in legal property transactions [1] Group 2 - Qingdao Bank's largest shareholder is set to change as Guoxin Group plans to increase its stake to nearly 19.99%, surpassing Haier Group and Italy's UniCredit, which is expected to positively impact the bank's stock price [3] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has approved the senior management qualifications of Xu Mingjie and Wu Jiong, indicating a focus on the qualifications of senior management in financial institutions [4] - Tianjin Binhai Rural Commercial Bank has appointed a new Party Secretary, with a focus on improving asset quality and addressing a relatively high non-performing loan ratio of 2.61% [4] Group 3 - Xiamen International Bank has appointed Wang Fei as the new Party Secretary and proposed him as the chairman, while the previous leader Wang Xiaojian has stepped down due to work changes [5] - Guangdong Rural Credit Union is undergoing significant reforms, planning to establish a Rural Commercial Bank to enhance capital strength and improve risk management capabilities, with total assets reaching 4.8 trillion yuan [5]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3377 points, down 0.75%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10122.11 points, down 1.1% [1][4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 15040 billion, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1][4] - Among the 30 sectors, only 4 sectors saw gains, with notable increases in oil and petrochemicals, national defense and military, and electric power and utilities, while comprehensive finance, media, and textile and apparel sectors faced significant declines [1][4] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices all closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.79%, the S&P 500 down 1.13%, and the Nasdaq down 1.3% [2][4] - Major technology stocks also fell, with Nvidia dropping over 2% and Facebook down more than 1% [2][4] Financial Data - The People's Bank of China reported that the social financing scale increased by 18.63 trillion yuan in the first five months, which is 3.83 trillion more than the same period last year [9][16] - As of the end of May, the broad money (M2) balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [9][16] Key News - The State Council held a meeting to deploy pilot measures for the China (Shanghai) Free Trade Zone, aiming to replicate and promote these measures to enhance high-level opening-up and deep reforms [14] - The fourth China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo concluded with 176 signed projects amounting to 11.39 billion USD, marking a 45.8% increase in project numbers and a 10.6% increase in project value compared to the previous expo [18]

Group 1: Monetary Supply and Growth - As of the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) reached 325.78 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 108.91 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [1] - The currency in circulation (M0) was 13.13 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.1% [1] - In the first five months, a net cash injection of 306.4 billion yuan was recorded [1] Group 2: Social Financing and Loans - The total social financing scale increased by 18.63 trillion yuan in the first five months, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - The balance of loans to the real economy reached 262.86 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7% [3] - In the first five months, RMB loans increased by 10.68 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 572.4 billion yuan and corporate loans increasing by 9.8 trillion yuan [4] Group 3: Deposits and Financial Market Rates - The total RMB deposits increased by 14.73 trillion yuan in the first five months, with household deposits rising by 8.3 trillion yuan [5] - The weighted average interbank lending rate in May was 1.55%, down 0.3 percentage points from the same period last year [6] - The loan market quotation rate for one-year loans was 3.00%, and for loans over five years, it was 3.50%, both lower by 0.1 percentage points compared to the end of last year [7] Group 4: Currency Exchange Rates - As of the end of May, the CFETS RMB exchange rate index was 95.96, down 5.43% from the end of last year [8] - The RMB to USD exchange rate was 7.1848, appreciating by 0.05% compared to the end of last year, while the RMB depreciated against the Euro and Yen by 7.80% and 7.28% respectively [8]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a reverse repurchase operation of 202.5 billion yuan for a 7-day term at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a total bid amount of 202.5 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 202.5 billion yuan. The net injection for the day was calculated to be 67.5 billion yuan after accounting for 135 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - As the tax period approaches, the overnight pledged repo rate for deposit-taking institutions has risen by nearly 4 basis points to around 1.41%, while the 7-day pledged repo rate has decreased by nearly 4 basis points. In the overseas market, the latest overnight financing rate in the US is 4.28% [3]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.67%, showing little change from the previous day [6]. Group 4: Bond Market - The yields on major interbank bonds have mostly declined, with short-term bonds performing slightly better. The 1-year government bond yield is at 1.40%, down by 0.50 basis points, while the 10-year government bond yield is at 1.6425%, down by 0.35 basis points [8]. Group 5: Treasury Futures - Treasury futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.02%, the 10-year main contract up by 0.02%, the 5-year main contract up by 0.04%, and the 2-year main contract up by 0.03% [11]. Group 6: Social Financing and Monetary Supply - Preliminary statistics from the central bank indicate that the incremental social financing scale for the first five months of 2025 reached 18.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year. The total RMB loans increased by 10.68 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 14.73 trillion yuan. As of the end of May, the broad money (M2) balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [12].

Core Insights - The financial data released by the People's Bank of China indicates a reasonable growth in financial totals for May, with strong support for the real economy [1] Group 1: Financial Data Overview - As of the end of May, the balance of RMB loans increased by 7.1% year-on-year, while the total social financing scale grew by 8.7% [1][2] - The broad money supply (M2) reached 325.78 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9%, which is significantly higher than the first quarter [3] Group 2: Social Financing and Loan Distribution - The total social financing scale stood at 426.16 trillion yuan at the end of May, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, and the increment for the first five months was 18.63 trillion yuan, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - Over 90% of new loans in the first five months were directed towards enterprises, with corporate loans increasing by 9.8 trillion yuan [3] Group 3: Interest Rates and Financing Costs - The average interest rate for new corporate loans in May was approximately 3.2%, down 50 basis points from the previous year, while the average rate for new personal housing loans was about 3.1%, down approximately 55 basis points [2] - The low interest rate environment is encouraging enterprises to increase bond financing, which helps reduce overall financing costs [2] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Economic Support - A series of financial policies have been implemented to support the real economy, including interest rate cuts and increased liquidity supply [5] - The central bank's recent measures are expected to create a favorable monetary environment for sustained economic recovery [6]