Group 1: Dollar Credit and Economic Dynamics - The recent high interest rate environment has led to a significant cooling of private credit expansion in the U.S., indicating a fragile balance for the dollar[1] - The correlation between global capital inflow and the dollar index is weak, primarily due to the mirrored relationship between U.S. capital inflow and trade deficits[6] - U.S. residents' net worth is positively correlated with the dollar index, with stock net worth showing a stronger correlation than housing net worth[21] Group 2: Risks and Policy Challenges - There is a notable tail risk of a "debt-recession" spiral if economic policies do not adjust significantly, particularly under the current high interest rates[26] - The U.S. government’s pursuit of trade barriers and a weaker dollar could harm resident welfare and exacerbate the tail risks associated with high bond yields[32] - The ongoing high interest rates and low growth environment raise questions about the sustainability of government debt, potentially leading to a "debt-recession" spiral[34]

报告导读： 随着近期美元信用折价导致的高利率环境持续，美国私人信贷扩张明显降温， 美元来到一个脆弱边界的紧平衡，美国当局需要在远景目标（长期贸易回流）与短期风险 （潜在债务危机）之间重新平衡，一旦政策端对于基本面恶化的响应速度不及时、态度不 彻底，那么美元资产的尾部风险不容忽视。反之亦然。 过去模式：高增长、高利率 — > 强美元 逻辑上，一国汇率强弱理应取决于 全球资本对该国货币的持有意愿（资本净流入） 。 但我们拆解美国的 国际收支平衡表发现，全球资本净流入与美元指数的相关性并不强，本质在于美国的资本净流入与贸易净 流出是镜像关系（孪生赤字）， 很难说资本净流入是由于对于美元资产吸引力更强，还是贸易竞争力更 差； 进一步看结构，我们发现美元指数与 股权直接投资 的净流入相关性最强，最近几年与 债权证券投资 的净 流入相关性更强。说明 美元强弱本质上取决于美国投资回报率预期（高息美元、增长预期） 。 美元信用的内在支撑：私人部门财富扩张 美国经济的本质驱动是 美国私人部门资产负债表的良性扩张，带来净资产的上涨。 而净资产的上涨进一 步抬升增长预期和利率水平，带来全球资本的持续涌入。 因此我们发现，美国居民净 ...

Core Viewpoint - The status of US Treasury bonds as a "pricing anchor" is declining, challenging the effectiveness of traditional investment strategies, leading to a global rebalancing towards non-US and alternative assets [1][18]. Group 1: Concerns Over US Treasury Bonds - The long-term issues with US Treasury bonds stem from concerns about both demand and supply, influenced by changes in dollar credit and expectations of potential bond issuance due to fiscal deficits [3][4]. - The contribution of tariff revenues to US fiscal income is minimal, with tariffs projected to account for only 1.6% of total fiscal revenue in 2024, while net interest expenses have risen significantly [6][9]. - The perception of US Treasury bonds as a safe haven is eroding due to geopolitical tensions and the use of dollar and Treasury bonds as negotiation tools in trade discussions [9][10]. Group 2: Impact of Domestic Policies - The "Big Beautiful Bill" passed by the House raises concerns about increased fiscal deficits, potentially adding $3 trillion over ten years, which could exacerbate the mismatch between supply and demand for Treasury bonds [13][18]. - The Trump administration's spending cuts have fallen short of targets, with only $175 billion cut against a goal of $2 trillion, indicating a lack of commitment to fiscal discipline [15][18]. Group 3: Erosion of Dollar Credibility - The current US administration's departure from traditional values and geopolitical alliances undermines the foundational credibility of the dollar, which relies on trust in US technological and military superiority [16][17]. - Recent challenges to US technological and military dominance could significantly impact the dollar's strength and the sustainability of its fiscal and current account deficits [17][18]. Group 4: Shifts in Asset Allocation - The decline in the status of US Treasury bonds as a pricing anchor has led to a reevaluation of traditional asset allocation strategies, with a notable shift from the typical 60/40 stock-bond portfolio to alternatives like gold and cryptocurrencies [20][24]. - Global funds are increasingly diversifying into non-US assets, with central banks raising their gold reserves significantly, indicating a trend towards alternative asset classes [24][26]. - The performance of alternative assets has outpaced traditional stock-bond combinations, with gold and Bitcoin showing substantial gains in 2025 [26][24].

可以预见的是，大量驱逐非法移民也正冲击美国经济。 美国一场针对非法移民的"搜捕战"，正不断发酵、升级成激烈的街头对峙。 据新华社报道，当地时间8日中午，在洛杉矶市中心联邦执法机构门前的抗议者与部署在该地的国民警 卫队人员发生冲突。国民警卫队人员发射催泪弹和橡皮子弹试图驱散抗议人群，但抗议者越来越多，从 最初数十人增加到1000人以上。 这是一场关于移民问题的三方博弈。据新华社报道，大量加利福尼亚州（以下简称"加州"）民众不满联 邦政府抓捕非法移民，在街头抗议。美国总统特朗普公开称，洛杉矶"被非法移民和犯罪分子侵占"，将 采取一切必要行动"解放"洛杉矶。20余名民主党州长联合发表声明称，特朗普向洛杉矶派遣州国民警卫 队是"令人担忧的权力滥用"，"既无效又危险"。 收紧移民签证、驱逐非法移民，一直是特朗普政府的核心政策议程。然而在美国，合法和非法移民为全 美贡献了近五分之一的劳动力，每年拉动实际GDP增长约0.1个百分点（美国国会预算办公室，即CBO 测算），大肆驱逐移民或将付出惨重的经济代价。 美国经济第一大州成风暴中心 "洛杉矶之乱"的直接导火索，在于美国联邦执法机构在南加州展开严打搜捕非法移民的行动。据央视 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall economic data in the US is weakening, and the conflict between immigrants and authorities in Los Angeles has occurred. The current expectations of the Fed's monetary policy and the impact on the US dollar's credit will support the prices of gold and silver [2] - The non - farm payroll data in the US, although exceeding expectations, shows a significant weakening in overall new employment, which further supports the Fed's entry into a new round of interest - rate cut cycle in the second half of the year [2] - The Los Angeles immigration conflict event intensifies the internal social contradictions in the US, further impacting the US dollar's credit and boosting the gold price [3] - It is recommended to maintain a long - position thinking in the precious metals strategy. Under the background of the marginal loosening of the Fed's monetary policy expectations, the performance of the silver price will be stronger. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 756 - 809 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8545 - 9500 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Content Market Quotes - Shanghai gold (Au) fell 1.09% to 774.18 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver (Ag) rose 0.62% to 8808.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold fell 0.29% to 3336.90 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver rose 0.14% to 36.19 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.51%, and the US dollar index was 99.08 [2] - In the table of price changes, for example, Au(T + D) closed at 779.56 yuan/gram, down 1.43 yuan (- 0.18%) from the previous trading day; Ag(T + D) closed at 8839.00 yuan/kilogram, up 383.00 yuan (4.53%) [4] Non - farm Payroll Data - The number of new non - farm payrolls in the US in May was 139,000, slightly exceeding the expected 130,000 but lower than the previous value of 177,000. The new non - farm payrolls in March and April were revised down by a total of 95,000 [2] Market Outlook - The weakening of overall new employment supports the Fed's entry into a new round of interest - rate cut cycle in the second half of the year [2] - The Los Angeles immigration conflict event impacts the US dollar's credit and boosts the gold price [3] Strategy Suggestion - Maintain a long - position thinking in the precious metals strategy. Silver will perform more strongly under the expected marginal loosening of the Fed's monetary policy. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 756 - 809 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8545 - 9500 yuan/kilogram [3] Data Summary of Gold and Silver - For gold, the closing price, trading volume, open interest, inventory, etc. of COMEX gold, LBMA gold, SHFE gold, and Au(T + D) have different degrees of changes. For example, the trading volume of SHFE gold increased by 39.03% [5] - For silver, the closing price, trading volume, open interest, inventory, etc. of COMEX silver, LBMA silver, SHFE silver, and Ag(T + D) also have different changes. For example, the trading volume of SHFE silver increased by 305.85% [5] Charts - There are multiple charts showing the relationship between gold and silver prices, trading volume, open interest, and other factors, such as the relationship between COMEX gold price and the US dollar index, and the relationship between COMEX gold price and actual interest rate [11]

Group 1: U.S. Soft Power and Global Influence - The U.S. has built its soft power post-World War II through political values, technological innovation, cultural appeal, and legitimate foreign policy, gaining significant influence in creating a new international order [1] - In the last decade, U.S. soft power has been severely impacted by the rise of unilateralism, protectionism, and cultural conservatism, leading to a decline in its international image and trust in its values and policies, particularly during Trump's presidency [1][2] - Trump's "America First" policy has led to a rejection of multilateralism, with the U.S. ranking lowest in support for multilateralism among 193 UN member states, which has resulted in a breakdown of international trade systems and supply chains [3][4] Group 2: Economic and Trade Policies - Trump's administration has adopted a confrontational approach to economic relations, exemplified by increasing tariffs, which has disrupted the multilateral free trade system and caused significant supply chain issues globally [3][4] - A Pew Research Center survey indicated that in 21 relatively affluent countries, 10 experienced a decline in favorable views of the U.S. by 6 percentage points or more, with Australia, Israel, South Africa, and Germany seeing the largest drops [4] - Trump's trade policies, including high tariffs, threaten the global trade system, which could lead to a decrease in demand for the dollar and weaken its value and credit [8][9] Group 3: Financial Stability and Dollar Credit - The U.S. has maintained financial hegemony through the dollar, which has been supported by its historical ties to gold and later oil, but this trust is now at risk due to increasing national debt and fiscal deficits [7][8] - The U.S. national debt has exceeded $36 trillion, with rising interest costs impacting the country's creditworthiness, leading to higher yields on U.S. Treasury bonds [8][9] - Trump's policies have contributed to a weakening dollar, with long-term Treasury yields rising above 4%, indicating market uncertainty and increasing risks to dollar credit [9] Group 4: Impact on Scientific Research and Education - Trump's administration has significantly cut funding for scientific research, with the National Science Foundation's new project funding dropping nearly 50% compared to the previous year, and the NIH's indirect costs being reduced from 40% to 15% [11][12] - The administration's focus on "useful research" has led to a decline in support for basic research, which is crucial for long-term innovation and competitiveness [12][17] - The reduction in federal funding has resulted in layoffs and program cuts at major universities, with institutions like Johns Hopkins and Harvard facing significant financial constraints [16][17] Group 5: Broader Implications for U.S. Soft Power - The ongoing conflict between Trump's administration and academic institutions reflects a broader ideological battle between conservative and progressive values, impacting the U.S.'s ability to attract and retain top talent in science and technology [15][17] - The erosion of support for scientific research and education under Trump's policies threatens the U.S.'s historical leadership in global science and technology, potentially diminishing its soft power [18]

更何况，最近靠着一招反复折腾关税操控资本市场，带着自己的亲朋好友们早早埋伏，没少赚美刀啊。 中美谈的是有90天的缓冲期，且还早着呢，不必着急早早的出结果。 最近这段时间暂停加征关税，可以让美国国内囤一波货，懂王也能缓缓。压力没那么大了，就可以换个 姿势作妖了，东大这边没有放松稀土出口，美国那边也在想办法加筹码，只是我认为不给中国学生签证 其实真的毫无意义，留学生的名声到底要怎么挽回来呢？董大姐私下里对留学生的评价，4+4风波，美 帝还真以为这一招能拿捏谁，那也是错判了行情。 之前懂王就把白宫的华裔幕僚都赶走了，因为他们提供了错误的讯息，这倒不是这帮高华们有意误导， 实在是这帮人无非是各种型号的章家敦。傲慢和偏见让他们根本看不清中国，只是一味地揣摩懂王的心 思，在那里胡说八道，等懂王发现上当了，已经掉坑里了。 现在无非是从一个坑掉另一个坑，凭空造出来的牌没什么作用，只能拖呗。 懂王那边着急的是推自己的大美丽法案。就这个法案，现在引发全美上下一片骚动，法案1000多页，估 计没几个人有耐心看完。不过网上有很多关于法案的解读，我看了半天，核心就四个字：劫贫济富，堵 死穷人占国家便宜的各种路子，让富人缴更少的税，让美 ...

其实绝大多数人对形势的判断都错了。 从加征关税、技术围堵、制裁企业，到不断叫嚣 "脱钩"。 大家都以为是懂王带着美国想要和我们断绝关系。 但最近一件事，揭开了真相。 今年 3 月，东大 大幅抛售了 189 亿美元美国国债，持有规模降至 7654 亿美元。 这是东大自 2000 年跻身美债前两大持有国之后， 25 年来首次退居全球第三，被英国反超。 减持美债，其实是一个很关键的信号，它意味着此刻 —— 不是美国在和东大脱钩，而是东大，正在悄悄与美国脱钩。 3月份，海外资金买入美国国债的单月净流入为1618亿美元，是2月的1.5倍。 但在东大抛售美债的同时，海外资金却在疯狂买入美国国债， 曾经，我们一直是老美最坚定的 "债主"。 时间回到2008年，金融危机席卷 全球，华尔街风雨飘摇，但当时我们选择坚定地支持美国国债—— 持仓规模一度突破1.3万亿美元，规模首次超过日本，跃居全球第一，撑起了美元信用。 但风向，从2015年开始变了。 随着两个大国之间冲突的出现，我们的战略判断在悄悄发生转向： 对美元体系的信任，不再是无条件的； 对外汇储备的构成，也不再是一成不变。 于是，美债持有比例从高点回落，中国开始温和但持续 ...

Key Points - Gold prices experienced a significant rebound last week, with London spot gold closing at $3,358 per ounce, a 4.9% increase, and domestic AU9999 gold at 776 yuan per gram, up 4.0% week-on-week [1] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened risk aversion due to fluctuating US-EU tariff negotiations and geopolitical risks, allowing gold to regain the $3,300 level [1] - The recent tariff easing has led to a correction in the previously overheated gold market, with gold experiencing a maximum pullback of 8-10% from its peak of $3,500 [1] Group 1 - The easing of tariff tensions has been largely priced into gold, suggesting that the market has adjusted to the recent developments [1] - The ongoing inflationary pressures in the US economy, exacerbated by previous tariff disputes, may continue to challenge economic stability despite tariff reductions [2] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts, despite delays, are expected to benefit gold as the market expects three rate cuts within the year [2] Group 2 - The weakening of US dollar credibility due to rising debt levels and high interest costs on government debt is driving central banks to increase gold purchases [2] - Global demand for gold ETFs has surged, with Q1 2025 demand nearly matching the record $111 billion set in Q4 2024, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase [2] - The demand for gold bars and coins remains robust, reaching 325 tons, which is 15% higher than the five-year quarterly average, with China being a key growth driver in this segment [2] Group 3 - Key signals to watch for gold ETFs in the upcoming week include US Q1 GDP and April PCE data, as well as any changes in tariff policies [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the weakening of the US dollar index is primarily due to Trump's tariff policies, which pose significant risks to the global and US economies [1][12] - The US dollar's status as the dominant global currency has been undermined by persistent trade and fiscal deficits, leading to a gradual erosion of its creditworthiness [2][5] - Trump's tariff policies aim to reverse trade deficits and encourage capital repatriation to US manufacturing, but they disrupt global trade and could ultimately harm the dollar's international status [3][4] Group 2 - The US fiscal deficit has reached unprecedented levels, with the federal deficit hitting $1.83 trillion in the last fiscal year and projected to exceed $1 trillion in the first half of the 2025 fiscal year [6][8] - The reliance on debt issuance has led to a vicious cycle of increasing fiscal deficits and rising interest payments, which are projected to surpass $1 trillion for the first time in the 2024 fiscal year [6][7] - The US national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, and projections suggest it could increase by another $20 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about the sustainability of US fiscal policy [7] Group 3 - Inflation risks are exacerbated by Trump's tariff policies, which could lead to increased costs for consumers and further damage the dollar's credibility [8][9] - Goldman Sachs predicts that even a 10% tariff could raise US inflation rates to 3%, indicating a significant impact on the economy [9] - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate cuts reflects concerns about long-term inflation trends, which could further undermine the dollar's value [10][11] Group 4 - The market is adjusting to the potential for economic downturns, with rising yields on US Treasury bonds indicating long-term concerns about the US economy [13][14] - The perception of the dollar as a safe haven is shifting, with investors increasingly viewing it as a risk asset rather than a refuge, leading to a decline in the dollar index [14][15] - The collective shift in investor sentiment reflects a broader loss of confidence in the dollar's creditworthiness, which may be difficult to restore even with policy changes [15]