Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, high imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the market is undervalued. It's in a period of bearish factor realization. With macro - instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine, but due to low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [3]. - For polyethylene, overall inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is +300 in North and East China. Import profit is around -400 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and LD is weakening. In 2025, new devices pose significant pressure, and attention should be paid to their commissioning [8]. - For polypropylene, upstream and mid - stream inventories are accumulating. The basis is +10, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profit is around -500. With few known future maintenance plans, supply is expected to increase slightly. In the context of over - capacity, the 05 contract faces pressure, which can be relieved by export growth or monthly maintenance of 2 million - ton PDH devices [8]. - For PVC, the basis is strengthening. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in June. The current static inventory is decreasing from a high level, and factors like exports, coal prices, and terminal orders should be monitored [12]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,动力煤期货 remained at 801. The daily changes in江苏现货,华南现货,鲁南折盘面,西南折盘面,河北折盘面,西北折盘面, CFR中国, CFR东南亚,进口利润,主力基差, and盘面MTO利润 were 0, 20, 5, - 3, 0, 0, 0, 0, 9, 20, - 13 respectively [2]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,东北亚乙烯 remained at 780. The daily changes in华北LL,华东LL,华东LD,华东HD, LL美金, LL美湾,进口利润,主力期货,基差,两油库存, and仓单 were - 10, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, - 65, 30, - 2, 0 respectively [8]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,山东丙烯 and东北亚丙烯 remained stable in some cases. The daily changes in华东PP,华北PP,山东粉料,华东共聚, PP美金, PP美湾,出口利润,主力期货,基差,两油库存, and仓单 were - 30, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, - 43, 20, - 2, - 133 respectively [8]. PVC - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,西北电石 decreased from 2450 to 2350,山东烧碱 increased from 867 to 885. The daily change in基差(高端交割品) was 10 [11][12].

甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/05/2 3 801 2302 2303 2460 2600 2460 2630 256 327 70 50 -818 2025/05/2 6 801 2285 2300 2410 2565 2460 2525 256 327 58 40 -843 2025/05/2 7 801 2250 2275 2390 2520 2325 2505 254 327 39 40 -828 2025/05/2 8 801 2255 2275 2355 2520 2300 2500 255 327 29 25 -825 2025/05/2 9 801 2245 2278 2353 2510 2300 2495 255 327 32 15 -836 日度变化 0 -10 3 -2 -10 0 -5 0 0 3 -10 -11 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘面低估值，等待淡季预期交易到位；伊朗降开工，非伊增量，国内供应增 加，总体来说处于利 空兑 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PTA market is active due to the suspension of US tariff measures and the support from major PTA suppliers. The supply of PX has started to increase, and the basis of PTA has weakened significantly. There is selling pressure in the market, and the positive spread has weakened. Polyester may experience a slight production cut. [2] - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports remains at over 700,000 tons. The coal - based ethylene glycol device load increase puts pressure on the market, but coal prices have started to rise. The mainstream device load of ethylene glycol is about to be overhauled, and it will enter the de - stocking stage. [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Quotes - INE crude oil price increased from 453.0 yuan/barrel on May 28, 2025, to 467.1 yuan/barrel on May 29, 2025, with an increase of 14.10 yuan/barrel. The PTA price in the East China market rose to 4951 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton. The spot price of PTA increased from 4880 yuan/ton to 4950 yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee increased from 322.5 yuan/ton to 354.8 yuan/ton. [2] - The spot price of ethylene glycol in the Zhangjiagang market rose to 4512 - 4514 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton from the previous working day. [2] Industrial Chain - PX: CFR China PX increased from 836 to 852, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 269 to 290. [2] - PTA: The PTA main futures price increased from 4672 yuan/ton to 4814 yuan/ton. The on - disk processing fee increased from 134.5 yuan/ton to 188.8 yuan/ton. [2] - MEG: The MEG main futures price increased from 4311 yuan/ton to 4359 yuan/ton, and the MEG - naphtha spread changed from (83.63) to (82.82). [2] Product Situation - Polyester filament: The prices of POY, FDY, and DTY had different changes, and the cash flows of POY, FDY, and DTY all decreased. The filament production and sales rate decreased from 72% to 56%. [2] - Polyester staple fiber: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6590 to 6625, and the cash flow decreased from 12 to (9). The short - fiber production and sales rate increased from 52% to 93%. [2] - Polyester chips: The price of semi - bright chips increased from 5850 to 5905, and the chip cash flow decreased from (178) to (179). The chip production and sales rate increased from 36% to 163%. [2] Device Maintenance - Three major polyester filament manufacturers decided to immediately implement production cuts for loss - making products and plan the next - step production cut plan, which will be implemented in the short term. [2]

华东市场苯乙烯市场震荡走高，至收盘现货7570-7900（06合约+450附近），6月下7440-7530（07合约 +310附近），7月下7260-7400（07合约+148附近），单位：元/吨。美金市场整体走稳，内外盘价差维 持顺挂，但美金报盘有限，在装置检修带动下，欧美苯乙烯价格偏坚挺。 【苯乙烯现货】 【纯苯现货】 纯苯市场价格涨幅较明显，截至收盘江苏港口纯苯5下商谈5830/5880元/吨，6月下商谈5870/5920元/ 吨，7月下商谈5900/5950元/吨，8月下商谈5900/5950元/吨。 纯苯市场价格涨幅较明显，因关税风险回落提振商品市场情绪，推动原料价格持续上行的同时，苯乙烯 盘面上涨推动纯苯商谈价格也挺价跟进。苯乙烯方面新一周期港口库存止降累库，但短期库存绝对水平 偏低仍予以盘面向上弹性势能。但现货端市场高价货源压力大。中期看3S在低利润局面下对苯乙烯驱 动不足。建议短期谨慎观望。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 偏弱 | 市场担忧 OPEC+继续加速增产，油价偏弱。周三 OPEC+部长级会议确立 | | | | 继续增产计划，原油远月压力较大，夏季原油消费旺季即将到来，近月下 | | | | 方存支撑，关注 OPEC+周六会议内容。SC【445-460】 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 成本端拖累叠加沙特下调 CP 合同价，液化气短线偏弱。成本端油价受 | | | | OPEC+扩产走弱；仓单回落，近期仓单连续上涨压力下降；丙烷进口成本 | | | | 下降，PDH 开工率有上升预期。PG【4035-4080】 | | | | 基本面格局偏弱，华北基差为 35（环比-93）。停车比例继续降至 13%， 二季度仍有山东新时代、埃克森、裕龙合计 165 万吨新装置投产计划，供 | | L | 震荡 | 给充沛；农膜需求淡季，短期假期临近，下游阶段性逢低补库。策略上， | | | | 盘面持续下跌后震荡运行，中期仍存继续下跌风险，前期空单可继续持有。 | | | | L【6900-7050】 | | | | 华东拉丝基差 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It is in a period of bearish factor realization. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. There is inventory accumulation during holidays in the upstream and coal - chemical sector. The overall inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is +300 in North and East China. Import profit is around - 400 with no further increase. The domestic linear production is increasing month - on - month. New device pressure is high in 2025, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [6]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: There is inventory accumulation in the upstream and mid - stream. The basis is +10, and the non - standard price spread is neutral. Import profit is around - 500. With few known future maintenance plans, supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average, and the finished - product inventory is moderately high. Under the background of over - capacity, the 05 contract is under pressure. Pressure relief requires an increase in exports or monthly maintenance of 2 million - ton PDH devices [6]. - **PVC**: The basis has strengthened. The mid - and upstream inventory is continuously decreasing. Summer seasonal maintenance of Northwest devices is ongoing. Attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in June. The current static inventory is decreasing from a high level, and downstream performance is mediocre. Key factors to watch include exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工 [10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From May 22 to May 28, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2315 to 2255, and the daily change on May 28 was 5. The import profit remained stable, and the daily change of the main - contract basis was - 15 [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From May 22 to May 28, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 780. The North China LL price decreased from 7260 to 6980, with a daily change of - 45 on May 28. The import profit remained at - 224, and the main - contract futures price decreased to 6972, with a daily change of - 35 [6]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From May 22 to May 28, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6530 to 6380, with a daily change of - 60 on May 28. The main - contract futures price decreased to 6893, with a daily change of - 3 [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From May 22 to May 28, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2500 to 2400. The ethylene - based PVC price in East China remained at 5500, and the daily change of the calcium - carbide - based PVC price in East China was - 30 on May 28 [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical market continues to fluctuate, and the market is waiting for a clearer trend. The increase in production by OPEC+ and geopolitical factors are the main factors affecting the market [1][2]. - The prices of chemical products have intensified in recent games. The increase in container shipping volume from China to the United States and the expected increase in production by OPEC+ have become trading points. The market is worried about a decline in crude oil prices in the future, and investors generally view the chemical market with a fluctuating mindset [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Crude oil market continues to fluctuate. Geopolitical factors support oil prices, but the possibility of OPEC+ increasing production limits the increase in oil prices [1]. - Chemical products continue to fluctuate and consolidate. The resumption of device maintenance and production and the improvement of demand have become the focus of the game [2]. 3.2 Variety Viewpoints | Variety | Viewpoint | Mid - term Outlook | | --- | --- | --- | | Crude Oil | Concerns about production increase persist, and oil prices are still under pressure | Oscillating weakly [4] | | LPG | Domestic demand remains weak, and the rebound of PG is limited | Oscillating weakly [6] | | Asphalt | The futures price of asphalt is overestimated and waiting to fall | Oscillating weakly [4] | | High - sulfur Fuel Oil | The overestimated state of high - sulfur fuel oil is waiting to fall | Oscillating weakly [4][5] | | Low - sulfur Fuel Oil | The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil | Oscillating weakly [6] | | Methanol | The inland price has declined slightly, and it fluctuates in the short term | Oscillating [14] | | Urea | The domestic rigid demand and export demand have not been linked, and the futures market fluctuates weakly | Oscillating [14] | | PX | Supply and demand are tightening, and PX prices are rising | Oscillating [8] | | PTA | The market lacks driving force, and PTA maintains an oscillating pattern | Oscillating [8] | | Ethylene Glycol | The reduction in polyester production drags down the demand for EG, but the expectation of inventory reduction still supports the futures price | Oscillating [10][11] | | Short - fiber | The basis strengthens, and the pattern of short - fiber remains healthy | Oscillating [11][12] | | Bottle Chip | Fluctuates and consolidates following raw materials | Oscillating [13] | | PP | Supply and demand are still under pressure, and PP fluctuates weakly | Oscillating weakly [16][17] | | Plastic | The fundamental pressure needs to be alleviated by increased maintenance, and plastic fluctuates | Oscillating [16] | | Styrene | The actual performance is still poor, and styrene fluctuates weakly | Oscillating weakly [8][9] | | PVC | Weak expectations and low valuations, and the futures market fluctuates | Oscillating [19] | | Caustic Soda | Strong current situation and weak expectations, and caustic soda fluctuates | Oscillating weakly [19] | 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as SC (M1 - M2) with a latest value of - 3 and a change of 4, and WTI (M1 - M2) with a latest value of 0.64 and a change of 0.04 [20]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, the basis of asphalt is 109 with a change of 10, and the warehouse receipt is 86510 [21]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also specific values and changes for inter - variety spreads, like 1 - month PP - 3MA with a latest value of 6 and a change of 0 [22]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report mentions basis and spread monitoring for multiple chemical varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided text [23][35][47].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - PTA market: PX supply has increased as PX unit maintenance ended and units returned, and overseas aromatic hydrocarbon units also recovered. PTA basis weakened, and spot selling pressure increased. The positive spread in the market has weakened, and polyester factories' destocking is nearing completion. Polyester may experience a slight production cut [2]. - MEG market: East China ethylene glycol port inventory remains at over 700,000 tons. The load of coal - based ethylene glycol units has recovered, but coal prices have started to rise. With the upcoming maintenance of mainstream ethylene glycol units, it will enter a destocking phase [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price was 452.8 yuan/barrel, with a change of 6.90 yuan compared to the previous period [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX was 834, up 8 from the previous value. PX - naphtha spread was 266 [2]. - **PTA**: PTA main contract futures price was 4,716 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 4,875 yuan/ton. Spot processing fee was - 23.0 yuan/ton, and the basis was 168 [2]. - **MEG**: Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol spot was negotiated at 4,531 - 4,533 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The main contract futures price was 4,403 yuan/ton, and the basis was 100 [2]. - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F price was 6,990, FDY150D/96F was 7,230, DTY150D/48F was 8,220, 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber was 6,660, semi - bright polyester chip was 5,905 [2]. 2.开工情况 - **PX**: PX operating rate was 77.29%, up 1.89% [2]. - **PTA**: PTA operating rate was 78.25%, down 1.03% [2]. - **MEG**: MEG operating rate was 50.00%, down 1.60% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Polyester load was 90.75%, down 0.36% [2]. 3. Sales and Production - **Polyester Filament**: POY sales - to - production ratio was 36%, FDY sales - to - production ratio was not provided, DTY sales - to - production ratio was not provided [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Polyester staple fiber sales - to - production ratio was 45%, down 15% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: Polyester chip sales - to - production ratio was 39%, up 13% [2]. 4. Device Maintenance - Three major polyester filament manufacturers decided to cut production of loss - making products immediately and plan further production cuts in the short term due to the rapid rise in raw material prices [2].

塑 料 日期 东北亚乙 烯 华北LL 华东LL 华东LD 华东HD LL美金 LL美湾 进口利润 主力期货 基差 两油库存 仓单 2025/05/2 0 780 7300 7515 9250 7780 855 917 -31 7222 40 82 5312 2025/05/2 1 780 7260 7525 9200 7780 855 917 -5 7221 30 81 5312 2025/05/2 2 780 7260 7450 9075 7800 855 917 -84 7159 40 80 5312 2025/05/2 3 780 7150 7400 9000 7780 855 917 -84 7085 40 80 5312 2025/05/2 6 780 7100 7375 9000 7780 855 917 -84 7080 60 80 5312 日度变化 0 -50 -25 0 0 0 0 0 -5 20 0 0 观点 聚乙烯，两油库存同比中性，上游过节累库，煤化工累库，下游库存原料中性，成品库存中性。整体库存中性，05基差华北+300， 华东+300，外盘欧美稳，东南亚维稳。进口利润-400附近 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The expected increase in production by OPEC+ has led to a decline in crude oil prices, dragging down the center of gravity of the aromatic hydrocarbon system from the valuation side. The recent rebound of styrene was mainly driven by tariff relaxation and the strengthening of spot goods under low inventory. However, this week, the spot market has shown some weakness, with prices starting to fall. Fundamentally, the high inventory of styrene's downstream 3S products may indicate an unsmooth transmission to the end - market. Coupled with ongoing profit challenges and the lack of a significant increase in orders during the export rush, there is a negative feedback expectation for high - priced styrene in the future. Additionally, the supply - demand situation of pure benzene, a raw material, has not improved significantly. With the return of domestic maintenance and increased supply from South Korea, there is significant pressure to reduce inventory, and the price center of pure benzene may decline. Therefore, styrene is expected to be bearish in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the resistance above 7800 - 7900 for the near - term contract. In terms of arbitrage, opportunities for the widening of the EB - BZ spread can be explored [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pure Benzene - **2025 Production Plan**: Multiple companies in different provinces have plans to put new capacity into production for pure benzene, its downstream products (excluding styrene), styrene, and styrene downstream products in 2025. For example, Yulong Petrochemical in Shandong plans to add 100 tons of pure benzene production capacity from 2024Q4 - 2025 using multiple processes [7]. - **May - July 2025 Device Dynamics**: Many companies' pure benzene - related devices have planned maintenance or production stops during May - July 2025. As of now, it is estimated that the planned new capacity for pure benzene from May - July is 1.33 million tons/year, with about 400,000 tons/year of new downstream capacity. The planned shutdown of pure benzene involves 4.46 million tons/year of capacity, and the downstream shutdown capacity is about 5.89 million tons/year. Overall, the net supply of pure benzene will decrease by about 239,000 tons, and the net demand will decrease by about 341,000 tons, resulting in inventory accumulation [9][10]. - **Catalytic Cracking and Related Spreads**: The toluene disproportionation profit is relatively low, and various spreads such as the ethylene - naphtha spread, pure benzene - naphtha spread, etc., show different trends over time [16]. - **Price and Supply - Demand**: The price of pure benzene in East China and its international quotes show different trends. South Korea's exports of pure benzene to China have remained at a high level. Although there are more maintenance activities, high production and imports have led to inventory accumulation. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene's downstream has recently declined slightly, and except for styrene, the profits of other downstream products are still weak [21][27][32]. Styrene and Its Downstream - **Styrene Futures and Spot**: The styrene spot price and its basis, monthly spreads, and registered warehouse receipts show different trends over time [54]. - **Styrene Supply**: Styrene's monthly and weekly production, operating rate, non - integrated and integrated profits, and the styrene - pure benzene spread are presented. China is gradually changing from a net importer of styrene to a net exporter, and it has maintained export performance from April - May [59][71]. - **Styrene Inventory**: The port inventory of styrene is at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year, while the factory inventory is accelerating inventory reduction but is still high compared to the same period [72]. - **Styrene Downstream**: The 3S products (PS, EPS, ABS) have high production capacity growth rates, which have intensified industry competition. As of May 22, the capacity utilization rates of EPS, PS, and ABS have changed. The estimated weekly consumption of styrene converted from 3S production has slightly decreased. The prices of 3S products have weakened, and their profits are under pressure. High production has led to relatively high inventory, indicating resistance in demand transmission. In the terminal market, exports are likely to be restricted after the implementation of tariffs, and domestic demand depends on subsidy incentives [77][80][90].