ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/4/30 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/4/28 | 2025/4/29 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 498.0 | 483.6 | -14. 40 | 成交情况: PTA:PTA行情小跌,原油下跌,利空PTA行情,但去库 | | | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 861.0 | 925.6 | 64. 65 | 存预期之下PTA主力供应商报盘基差较强,支撑PTA现 货基差。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2379 | 1. 2634 | 0. 0255 | | | | CFR中国PX | 758 | 756 | -2 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 176 | 178 | 2 | | | | PTA主力期价(元/吨) | 4480 | 4440 | ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/04/30 | 甲 醇 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 动力煤期 | | 江苏现货 华南现货 | 鲁南折盘 | 西南折盘面 | 河北折盘 | 西北折盘 | CFR中国 | CFR东南 | | 进口利润 主力基差 | 盘面MTO | | | 货 | | | 面 | | 面 | 面 | | 亚 | | | 利润 | | 2025/04/2 3 | 801 | 2438 | 2468 | 2745 | 2610 | 2720 | 2855 | 261 | 340 | 184 | 40 | -863 | | 2025/04/2 4 | 801 | 2437 | 2455 | 2740 | 2610 | 2720 | 2840 | 261 | 340 | 164 | 35 | -875 | | 2025/04/2 5 | 801 | 2440 | 2458 | 2740 | 2610 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/4/30 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/4/28 | 2025/4/29 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 498.0 | 483.6 | -14. 40 | 成交情况: PTA:PTA行情小跌,原油下跌,利空PTA行情,但去库 | | | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 861.0 | 925.6 | 64. 65 | 存预期之下PTA主力供应商报盘基差较强,支撑PTA现 货基差。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2379 | 1. 2634 | 0. 0255 | | | | CFR中国PX | 758 | 756 | -2 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 176 | 178 | 2 | | | | PTA主力 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Weak [1] - L: Bearish [1] - PP: Weak [1] - PVC: Weak [1] - PX: Bearish [1] - PTA/PTR: Bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Weak [1] - Soda ash: Sideways [1] - Methanol: Bearish [1] - Urea: Bearish [1] - Asphalt: Bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by factors such as trade policy uncertainty, OPEC+ production expansion, and cost fluctuations, with most varieties showing weak or bearish trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Condition**: Overnight international oil prices fell slightly, with WTI down 2.63%, Brent down 2.33%, and domestic SC down 1.23% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: Trade policy uncertainty and OPEC+ production expansion lead to weak oil prices, but the approaching trading season strengthens short - term support. Supply and demand factors and inventory changes also affect the market [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to factors like the tariff war, new energy impact, and OPEC+ expansion, oil supply is in surplus, and the price fluctuates between $55 - 65. In the short - term, the price is below the 5 - day moving average, and it's recommended to hold light positions or buy options to hedge risks during the May Day holiday. SC focuses on [470 - 485] [5]. LPG - **Market Condition**: On April 29, the PG main contract closed at 4383 yuan/ton, down 0.27% [7]. - **Basic Logic**: Affected by tariff policies, the import cost of propane rises, but the continuous decline in oil prices drags down the cost, resulting in a weak trend. There are changes in factors such as warehouse receipts, cost - profit, supply, demand, and inventory [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the cost support is weak, and the trend mainly follows oil prices. Technically, it's below the 5 - day moving average. It's recommended to wait and see before the holiday. PG focuses on [4350 - 4420] [9]. L - **Market Condition**: The 5 - 9 spread increased by 11 yuan/ton day - on - day [11]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply side has new production capacity, and some import windows are open or about to open. The demand side is at the end of the seasonal peak for agricultural films. The cost of crude oil falls, and the fundamentals are weak. In the long - term, the pressure of new device production and the decline of crude oil make the rebound bearish [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go short on rallies. L focuses on [7030 - 7200] [12]. PP - **Market Condition**: The L - PP09 spread decreased by 1 yuan/ton day - on - day [14]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost support weakens, the warehouse receipts decline, and the supply - demand is weak. In the long - term, the pressure of new device production and the decline of crude oil make the rebound bearish [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short - term and go short on rallies in the medium - term. PP focuses on [7030 - 7150] [15]. PVC - **Market Condition**: The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton week - on - week [17]. - **Basic Logic**: As the delivery month approaches, the main contract shifts positions, and the market sentiment is weak. The supply side has new device production, and the demand side has seasonal changes. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term and go long on pullbacks [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short - term and go long on pullbacks. V focuses on [4880 - 5020] [18]. PX - **Market Condition**: On April 25, the spot price in East China was 6600 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the PX09 contract closed at 6230 yuan/ton (+64) [19]. - **Basic Logic**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, and the demand - side maintenance is high. Affected by tariffs and OPEC+ production expansion, the expected decline in crude oil prices and high inventory lead to a weakening trend [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX focuses on [6150 - 6250] [20]. PTA - **Market Condition**: On April 25, the PTA price in East China was 4490 yuan/ton (+62), and the TA09 contract closed at 4400 yuan/ton (+30) [22]. - **Basic Logic**: The high volume of PTA device maintenance eases supply - side pressure. The downstream polyester load is high but expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving inventory is high. The inventory decreases, and the cost support is limited. It's recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA focuses on [4360 - 4460] [24]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Condition**: On April 25, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4184 yuan/ton (-32), and the EG09 contract closed at 4160 yuan/ton (-19) [25]. - **Basic Logic**: Devices are under planned maintenance, the arrival volume is high, and the import in March exceeded expectations. The demand side is good but expected to weaken, and the inventory is high. The cost support is weak, and it's recommended to go short on rallies [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG focuses on [4160 - 4220] [27]. Glass - **Market Condition**: The spot market price was stable, the futures was weakly volatile, the main contract basis widened, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [29]. - **Basic Logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment is cautious due to the trade war and lack of incremental policies. The supply is stable at a low level, the demand has seasonal improvement but is lower than the same period. The upstream inventory accumulates again, and the short - term rebound is suppressed [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focuses on [1080 - 1120] [30]. Soda Ash - **Market Condition**: The heavy - soda ash spot price was raised, the futures was slightly bullish, the basis narrowed, and the warehouse receipts and valid forecasts increased [31]. - **Basic Logic**: The planned maintenance of soda ash enterprises in May may reduce supply, but the over - capacity remains. The downstream demand changes little, and the inventory is still high. The market sentiment warms up, but the supply - demand drive is limited, and the medium - term upward drive is lacking [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA focuses on [1335 - 1380] [32]. Methanol - **Market Condition**: On April 25, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2413 yuan/ton (+5), and the main 09 contract closed at 2288 yuan/ton (-1) [34]. - **Basic Logic**: Although the device maintenance reduces the load, the overall supply pressure is still large, and the arrival expectation is likely to be fulfilled. The demand is expected to weaken, the social inventory decreases slightly, and the cost support is weak. It's recommended to go short on rallies [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA focuses on [2255 - 2285] [35].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/4/29 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2025/4/25 | 2025/4/28 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 496. 1 | 498. 0 | 1. 90 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情上涨,去库存预期之下,PTA主力供应商 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 794.8 | 861.0 | 66. 19 | 报盘基差继续走强,提振市场。但买方跟涨动力不 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2205 | 1. 2379 | 0. 0174 | 足,盘中现货基差冲高回落。 | | PX | CFR中国PX | 752 | 758 | 6 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 170 | 176 | 6 | | | | P ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Sideways [1] - L: Bearish [1] - PP: Sideways [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Sideways [1] - Soda ash: Sideways [1] - Methanol: Bearish [1] - Urea: Bearish [1] - Asphalt: Bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The trade policy uncertainty and OPEC+ production increase lead to a weak oil price, while the upcoming trade peak season strengthens the short - term downside support [2]. - LPG follows the oil price for consolidation, with short - term cost support but weak strength [7]. - For L, the high - operation of devices, abundant supply, and weakening demand result in a bearish outlook [10]. - PP shows a short - term support due to high parking ratio and weak supply - demand, but a bearish long - term outlook [13]. - PVC has a cost - supported low - level sideways movement, and short - term wait - and - see is recommended [16]. - PX has an improved April fundamental and is currently fluctuating with cost, showing a bullish sideways trend [18]. - PTA has reduced supply pressure, but the downstream polyester is expected to weaken, with a short - term bullish trend and opportunities to short at high levels [22]. - Ethylene glycol has a high arrival volume and expected weakening demand, with limited cost support and a bearish short - term adjustment [24]. - Glass has a stable low - level supply, seasonal demand improvement, but high inventory restricts the short - term rebound [27]. - Soda ash has a short - term warm sideways movement due to reduced supply, but a bearish mid - term outlook due to new capacity [1]. - Methanol has a large supply pressure, weakening demand, and weak cost support, with a bearish short - term outlook [29]. - Urea has a large supply pressure and weak demand, but fast - growing fertilizer exports, with a bearish outlook and opportunities to go long on pullbacks [33]. - Asphalt has a high crack spread and a bearish rebound, with a weak and sideways cost - end oil price [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices declined (WTI down 1.54%, Brent down 1.53%), while domestic SC rose 0.06% [2]. - **Supply**: As of April 25, the number of active US oil rigs increased by 2 to 483. Kazakhstan's March oil production decreased by about 3% to 62.7 barrels per day [2]. - **Demand**: In April, Russia's supply of ESPO blended oil to Indian ports increased to about 400,000 tons (about 100,000 barrels per day) [2]. - **Inventory**: As of April 18, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 2 million barrels to 443.1 million barrels, and strategic crude oil reserve increased by 5 million barrels to 397.5 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy**: Long - term price range is $55 - 65, short - term is weak, and SC focuses on [480 - 500] [3]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: On April 28, the main PG contract closed at 4,395 yuan/ton, down 0.25% [5][6]. - **Supply**: As of April 25, the total LPG commodity volume was 515,500 tons, up 2,300 tons [7]. - **Demand**: As of April 25, the开工 rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil decreased by 3.09pct, 2.18pct, and 0.51pct respectively [7]. - **Inventory**: As of April 25, refinery inventory was 163,200 tons, down 1,000 tons, and port inventory was 2.8402 million tons, up 175,700 tons [7]. - **Strategy**: Long - term cost support is weak, follow the oil price for consolidation, and conduct PG05 - 06 positive spread operation and sell call options. PG focuses on [4350 - 4450] [7]. 3.3 L - **Market Performance**: L09 (main contract) closed at 7,164 yuan/ton, up 0.2% [9]. - **Supply**: New production capacity of 2.08 million tons has been put into operation this year, and the LLDPE, LDPE film, and HDPE film import windows are closed [10]. - **Demand**: The agricultural film season is ending, and demand is gradually weakening [10]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.9% to 530,000 tons [9]. - **Strategy**: Go short at high levels, and L focuses on [7080 - 7200] [10]. 3.4 PP - **Market Performance**: PP09 (main contract) closed at 7,112 yuan/ton, up 0.2% [12]. - **Supply**: Baofeng's 1 million tons/year PP device was successfully put into operation in the first quarter, and attention is paid to the commissioning progress of Zhongjing Petrochemical's 1.5 million tons/year PDH device [13]. - **Demand**: Product exports are under pressure due to tariff disturbances [13]. - **Inventory**: PP enterprise inventory decreased by 2.4% to 600,000 tons [12]. - **Strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see, mid - term short at high levels, and PP focuses on [7050 - 7150] [13]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Performance**: V09 (main contract) closed at 4,989 yuan/ton, up 0.6% [15]. - **Supply**: Xinpu Chemical's 500,000 - ton device was put into operation in January, and the capacity utilization rate is 79% [16]. - **Demand**: The decline in real - estate completion area narrows, and downstream开工率 decreases seasonally [16]. - **Inventory**: PVC仓单 decreased by 0.3% to 29,653 [15]. - **Strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see, go long on pullbacks, and V focuses on [4920 - 5060] [16]. 3.6 PX - **Market Performance**: On April 25, the spot price of PX in East China was 6,600 yuan/ton (flat), and the PX09 contract closed at 6,230 yuan/ton (+64) [17]. - **Supply**: Many domestic and overseas PX devices are under maintenance, with the weekly output of 647,000 tons, down 7,000 tons [18]. - **Demand**: PTA device maintenance is high, and the demand is expected to weaken [18]. - **Inventory**: In March, PX inventory was at a high level in the same period, and the number of warehouse receipts was 1,064, lower than the same period [18]. - **Strategy**: PX focuses on [6220 - 6320] [19]. 3.7 PTA - **Market Performance**: On April 25, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,490 yuan/ton (+62), and the TA09 contract closed at 4,400 yuan/ton (+30) [20][21]. - **Supply**: Many PTA devices are under maintenance, with a weekly output of 1.393 million tons, up 55,000 tons [22]. - **Demand**: The downstream polyester is expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving inventory is high [22]. - **Inventory**: PTA social inventory decreased to 4.804 million tons in March, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [22]. - **Strategy**: TA focuses on [4420 - 4520], and pay attention to shorting at high levels [22]. 3.8 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On April 25, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,184 yuan/ton (-32), and the EG09 contract closed at 4,160 yuan/ton (-19) [23]. - **Supply**: Many domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance, with a high expected arrival volume of 248,000 tons [24]. - **Demand**: The downstream polyester is expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving inventory is high [24]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased slightly, and port inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy**: EG focuses on [4150 - 4220] [25]. 3.9 Glass - **Market Performance**: The spot market quotation is regionally differentiated, the futures is at a low - level sideways movement, the main contract basis narrows, and the number of warehouse receipts decreases [27]. - **Supply**: The glass supply remains stable at a low level, and the cold - repair plan of manufacturers slows down after the cost decreases [27]. - **Demand**: The demand shows a seasonal improvement but is lower than the same period, and the real - estate industry has not stabilized [27]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory increased by 395,000 heavy boxes to 65.473 million heavy boxes, up 0.61% [27]. - **Strategy**: FG focuses on [1100 - 1140] [27]. 3.10 Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The spot market quotation is regionally differentiated, the futures is at a low - level sideways movement [1]. - **Supply**: There are many maintenance plans, and the supply is expected to decrease [1]. - **Demand**: No specific demand - related content mentioned in the provided documents. - **Inventory**: The alkali plant inventory decreases slightly [1]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy content other than the price range in the provided documents. 3.11 Methanol - **Market Performance**: On April 25, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,413 yuan/ton (+5), and the main 09 contract closed at 2,288 yuan/ton (-1) [29]. - **Supply**: Domestic and overseas methanol devices are under maintenance, but the supply pressure is still large, and the import is expected to increase in May [29]. - **Demand**: The demand of MTO devices is expected to weaken, and the traditional downstream demand is in the off - season [29]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of methanol decreases slightly to 773,000 tons [29]. - **Strategy**: MA focuses on [2260 - 2310], and go short on rebounds [29][30]. 3.12 Urea - **Market Performance**: On April 25, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1,830 yuan/ton (flat), and the main contract closed at 1,757 yuan/ton (-1) [32]. - **Supply**: The maintenance devices are gradually restarted, with a high daily output, and the supply pressure is large [33]. - **Demand**: It is the off - season for agricultural fertilization, and the industrial demand is weak, but fertilizer exports are growing fast [33]. - **Inventory**: The inventory accumulates, with the factory inventory at 1.065 million tons and the port inventory at 117,000 tons [33]. - **Strategy**: The price range of UR is [1760 - 1790], and pay attention to going long on pullbacks [33]. 3.13 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: No specific recent market performance content mentioned other than the price range in the provided documents. - **Supply**: No specific supply - related content mentioned in the provided documents. - **Demand**: No specific demand - related content mentioned in the provided documents. - **Inventory**: Both social and factory inventories are increasing [1]. - **Strategy**: The price range of BU is [3400 - 3500], and go short on rebounds [1].

聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 品种 | 4月28日 | 涨跌 | 单位 | 品种 | 4月25日 | 涨跌 | 4月25日 | 涨跌幅 | 4月28日 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -1.01 | -1.5% | POY150/48价格 | 布伦特原油(6月) | 66.87 | 6395 | 6265 | 130 | 2.1% | 65.86 | 美元/桶 | -1.5% | WTI原油(6月) | 63.02 | -0.97 | FDY150/96价格 | 130 | 2.0% | 62.05 | 6580 | 6450 | | | -0.7% | DTY150/48价格 | 85 | CFR日本石脑 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound space of soda ash and glass is limited due to market sentiment disturbances. For soda ash, the futures price has shifted upward due to macro - disturbances and maintenance expectations. Although the high supply currently exerts pressure on prices, there is an expectation of marginal improvement in May. For glass, the sales - to - production ratio has rebounded, but the pessimistic market expectation remains unchanged [1][4][54]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash 3.1.1 Price - **Futures Price**: From April 21 to April 25, 2025, the prices of 2505, 2509, and 2601 contracts increased by 32, 25, and 14 respectively. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 7, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 11. The basis of the main contract increased by 17 [6]. - **Spot Price**: During the same period, the price of heavy - alkali in some regions remained stable, while the price of light - alkali in the central region decreased by 40 [6]. 3.1.2 Supply - The overall capacity utilization rate decreased slightly by 0.06 percentage points to 89.44%. The weekly output decreased by 0.05 million tons to 75.51 million tons, a decrease of 0.07%. The heavy - alkali output decreased by 0.10 million tons to 41.55 million tons, a decrease of 0.24%. Although the light - alkali output increased slightly by 0.05 million tons to 33.96 million tons, an increase of 0.15%, the high supply still exerts pressure on prices. However, there is an expectation of a decrease in production in early May as the number of maintenance enterprises gradually increases [7]. 3.1.3 Demand - The daily output of float glass decreased by 0.07 million tons to 15.78 million tons, a decrease of 0.44%. The daily output of photovoltaic glass increased by 0.08 million tons to 9.73 million tons, an increase of 0.83%. The apparent demand for light - alkali decreased by 1.97 million tons to 33.60 million tons, a decrease of 5.54% [7]. 3.1.4 Inventory - The total inventory decreased by 2.03 million tons to 169.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.19%. The heavy - alkali inventory decreased by 2.39 million tons to 84.05 million tons, a decrease of 2.76%, while the light - alkali inventory increased slightly by 0.36 million tons to 85.05 million tons, an increase of 0.43% [7]. 3.1.5 Profit - The profit of the combined - soda process increased by 101.40 yuan/ton to 255.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 110.13%. The profit of the ammonia - soda process increased by 78.25 yuan/ton to 17.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 121.85% [52]. 3.1.6 Market Outlook - In the short term, the price of soda ash may fluctuate or fluctuate slightly upward as the expectation of inventory accumulation in alkali plants is low. In the long term, high supply and high inventory will still suppress prices [8]. 3.2 Glass 3.2.1 Price - **Futures Price**: From April 21 to April 25, 2025, the prices of 2505, 2509, and 2601 contracts changed by 13, - 9, and - 7 respectively. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 22, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2 [56]. - **Spot Price**: During the same period, the price of 5mm glass in Shahe increased by 4 yuan/ton, while the price in North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the prices in other regions remained stable [56]. 3.2.2 Supply - The capacity utilization rate increased slightly by 0.19 percentage points to 75.85%. The daily output decreased by 0.07 million tons to 15.78 million tons, and the weekly output decreased by 0.35 million tons to 110.58 million tons. The supply remained relatively stable [57]. 3.2.3 Demand - The apparent demand decreased by 2.95 million tons to 108.61 million tons, a decrease of 3%. The orders of processing plants varied, with most orders increasing slightly but not significantly. Most purchases of raw glass were for rigid demand, and the sales - to - production ratio declined significantly in the second half of the week [57]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The total inventory increased by 39.5 million weight - cases to 6547.3 million weight - cases, an increase of 1%. The inventory of traders in Shahe decreased by 44 million weight - cases to 360 million weight - cases, a decrease of 11% [57]. 3.2.5 Profit - The profit of natural - gas - fired glass increased by 13.72 yuan/ton to - 153.13 yuan/ton, an increase of 8%. The profit of coal - gas - fired glass increased by 16.36 yuan/ton to 145.05 yuan/ton, an increase of 13%. The profit of petroleum - coke - fired glass decreased by 34.29 yuan/ton to - 38.35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 845% [57]. 3.2.6 Market Outlook - In the short term, the glass market has no obvious driving force on the fundamental side, and the price will maintain a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the changes in terminal demand after the holiday and the impact of the commodity market sentiment [58].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/4/28 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | 指标 | | 2025/4/24 | 2025/4/25 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 493. 4 | 496. 1 | 2. 70 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情上涨,期货休市,现货市场未闻公开成 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/吨) | 784. 4 | 794.8 | 10. 38 | 交,现货基差参考主力供应商报盘的算术平均值评估 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2188 | 1. 2205 | 0. 0017 | 。PTA去库存利好延续,主力供应商挺市。 | | | CFR中国PX | 744 | 752 | 8 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 155 | 170 | 15 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers individual investment outlooks for different varieties, including "strengthening," "oscillating," "rebounding," "weakening," and "going short at high levels" [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple varieties in the commodity market, including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, bottle chips, glass, soda ash, and methanol. It provides core views, basic logics, and strategy recommendations for each variety, along with price ranges [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Core View**: Strengthening [1] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances, such as the tense relationship between the US and Iran, the unexpected decline in US crude oil production in January, the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, and the continued US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, have led to a rise in oil prices [1][4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium to long - term, there is a strong downward pressure on the oil price center after the third quarter due to the supply - surplus situation. In the short - term, the trend is strong, and short - position holders should be cautious. SC is expected to be in the range of [545 - 560] [5]. LPG - **Core View**: Oscillating [1] - **Basic Logic**: The upward pressure on oil prices has increased after continuous rebounds. The fundamentals of LPG are mixed, with a decrease in commodity volume on the supply side, high port inventories, and a recent decline in downstream profits [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the strengthening of upstream crude oil and no major driving forces in the fundamentals, it is expected to oscillate. Technical indicators show short - term oscillation. Long - position holders should take profits, and bull spread options can be sold. PG is expected to be in the range of [4600 - 4700] [9]. L - **Core View**: Oscillating [1] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil is strong, the parking ratio has decreased significantly, and social inventories have decreased slightly. However, supply exceeds demand, and there is insufficient upward driving force in the fundamentals. In the long - term, the pressure of new device production is high [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go short at high levels. L is expected to be in the range of [7600 - 7740] [12]. PP - **Core View**: Oscillating [1] - **Basic Logic**: The parking ratio remains high. In the short - term, it follows the cost - end and shows strength. In the long - term, the pressure of new device production restricts the upward space [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go short on rebounds. PP is expected to be in the range of [7260 - 7360] [15]. PVC - **Core View**: Oscillating [1] - **Basic Logic**: The basis has strengthened slightly, social inventories have declined from a high level, and the warehouse receipts are being cancelled in March. The market is oscillating at a low level. The regular spring maintenance from April to May is about to start [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on pullbacks. V is expected to be in the range of [5020 - 5140] [18]. PX - **Core View**: Rebounding [1] - **Basic Logic**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, and the overall maintenance volume of downstream PTA is high. The improvement in supply - demand is limited. The crude oil price has stabilized recently but is expected to weaken. The inventory is decreasing but remains high [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. PX is expected to be in the range of [6850 - 7020] [21]. PTA - **Core View**: Rebounding [1] - **Basic Logic**: PTA devices are under planned maintenance, and the pressure on the supply side is expected to ease. The downstream demand is currently good but is expected to weaken. The inventory is slightly high [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks, but the rebound height may be limited. TA is expected to be in the range of [4830 - 4930] [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Core View**: Weakening [1] - **Basic Logic**: The recent increase in device maintenance has not effectively alleviated the supply pressure due to high imports. The demand is good but is expected to weaken. The cost support is weak [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The recent market is oscillating weakly, and range - bound operations are recommended. EG is expected to be in the range of [4440 - 4520] [27]. Bottle Chips - **Core View**: Rebounding [1] - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure has increased due to device capacity expansion. The soft - drink market is in the off - season, but the demand is expected to improve, and the export growth rate is high. The inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cost support is expected to improve in April [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. PR is expected to be in the range of [6010 - 6080] [30]. Glass - **Core View**: Oscillating [1] - **Basic Logic**: Macroeconomic data has improved, the supply has declined from a low level, the terminal demand is weakly recovering, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. The market is undervalued near the coal - based cost, and there is intense capital game [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG is expected to be in the range of [1180 - 1220] [33]. Soda Ash - **Core View**: Weakening [1] - **Basic Logic**: The spring maintenance is nearly over, and the supply is expected to increase. The terminal demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the speculative demand is insufficient. The inventory of soda ash factories has increased from a decline, and the absolute inventory level is high [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA is expected to be in the range of [1370 - 1400] [35]. Methanol - **Core View**: Rebounding [1] - **Basic Logic**: Coal - based methanol devices are entering the spring maintenance stage, but the maintenance volume is lower than expected. The supply pressure remains high. The methanol arrival volume is lower than the same period, but overseas devices are gradually resuming, and the future arrival volume is expected to increase. The demand is continuously improving, but downstream feedback needs attention. The social inventory is decreasing [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, it is oscillating strongly. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels. MA is expected to be in the range of [2470 - 2520] [1]. Urea - **Core View**: Go short at high levels [1] - **Basic Logic**: The restart of maintenance devices will increase the supply pressure, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The inventory is decreasing seasonally but remains slightly high. The cost support is weak [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The current daily production of urea remains high, and the industrial demand is expected to weaken. The agricultural spring fertilization demand is about to end. The supply - demand is still loose, and chasing the rise should be cautious. UR is expected to be in the range of [1840 - 1880] [1].