全球主要经济体6月PMI终值公布。 上周国际市场风云变幻，伊朗与以色列达成停火协议，市场风险偏好有所改善。美股剑指历史新高，道 指周涨3.82%，纳指周涨4.25%，标普500指数周涨3.44%。欧洲三大股指延续涨势，英国富时100指数周 涨0.28%，德国DAX 30指数周涨2.92%，法国DAX 30指数周涨1.34%。 本周看点颇多，美国月度就业数据将受到关注，因为市场正在权衡美联储是否会在下个月开始降息。在 欧洲，焦点将集中在全球央行行长在葡萄牙辛特拉举行的欧洲央行论坛上的评论，以及欧元区通胀数 据。此外，欧美主要经济体6月PMI终值表现将反映关税压力下各国商业活动潜力。 非农能否决定7月降息 本周，美国6月非农就业数据将受到密切关注，因为就业市场疲软的证据可能会增加外界对美联储可能 很快降息的猜测。 到目前为止，美联储主席鲍威尔一直敦促谨慎降息，因为关税有引发通胀的风险。本周他将亮相葡萄牙 辛特拉，出席欧央行论坛并讲话。荷兰国际集团ING首席国际经济学家奈特利（James Knightley）在一 份报告中表示："美联储可能需要看到更明确的疲软证据，即就业增长放缓和失业率上升，才能尽早采 取行动。" ...

（1）动力煤：动力煤价格边际上涨。月底煤炭产地停产减产增多，供给收 紧，加之夏季用煤高峰开启，补库刚需释放，煤炭销售走强、价格探涨。 （2）螺纹钢：价格跌幅走扩。本周螺纹钢现货价格环比-0.73%。247家钢厂 高炉开工率 83.8%，持平前周。淡季背景下现货供增需弱，钢价延续弱势。 【债券周报】 进入政策等待期 ——每周高频跟踪 20250628 证 券 研 究报 告 （3）铜：铜价边际上涨。现货市场延续淡季成交行情，月末出货积极性提 升，下游补库以刚需为主，铜价弹性持续受限。 投资相关：地产成交成交进入季末冲刺 1、水泥：水泥价格跌幅扩大。水泥价格环比-1.7%、前周环比-0.6%。南方降 水影响、中部洪涝灾害压制需求，水泥价格以下跌为主。 2、地产：（1）30城新房销售延续上行。6月20日-6月26日30城新房成交面 积环比+41.3%，同比-7.1%，降幅收窄。（2）二手房成交季节性抬升。二手 房成交环比+5.3、同比-1.4%，冲刺斜率弱于去年同期。 2、原油：价格明显回落。布伦特原油、WTI原油价格环比-12%、-11.3%， 主因伊以达成停火协议，中东地缘局势快速缓和，市场对霍尔木兹海峡可能 被 ...

Market Performance - The New York stock market opened higher on the 27th, with all three major indices closing up, marking new historical highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite [1] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6173.07 points, up 32.05 points or 0.52%, while the Nasdaq Composite closed at 20273.46 points, also up 105.55 points or 0.52% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 432.43 points to close at 43819.27 points, a gain of 1.00% [1] Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan reported that the U.S. consumer confidence index rose from 52.2 in May to 60.7 in June, a month-over-month increase of 16.3% [2] - This increase in consumer confidence is attributed to a significant drop in inflation expectations, with one-year expectations falling from 5% [2] Economic Indicators - Personal income in the U.S. grew by only 0.4% month-over-month in May, below the expected 0.3% and previous value of 0.8% [2] - Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.1%, not meeting the expected 0.2%, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [2] Inflation Data - The personal consumption expenditures price index rose by 2.3% year-over-year, slightly above the previous value of 2.1% [3] - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.7%, exceeding the expected 2.6%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [3] Individual Stocks - Tesla's stock surged over 8% earlier in the week due to the successful launch of its autonomous taxi service in Austin, Texas, although it later experienced a slight decline [4] - Coinbase was the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 in June, with a 44% increase, reaching its highest level since its IPO in 2021, before dropping 5.77% on the 27th [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market continues to show strong performance, with major indices reaching new historical closing highs despite geopolitical tensions and trade negotiations with Canada [1][2]. Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 432.43 points, or 1.00%, closing at 43819.27 points; the S&P 500 increased by 32.05 points, or 0.52%, to 6173.07 points; and the Nasdaq Composite gained 105.55 points, or 0.52%, ending at 20273.46 points [1]. - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have both confirmed entry into a bull market, with the Nasdaq up over 20% since its low on April 8 [1]. Sector Performance - Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, the consumer discretionary sector led gains, while the energy sector lagged [2]. - Nike's stock surged by 15.2%, significantly contributing to the index's performance, following better-than-expected revenue guidance [2]. Technology Stocks - Major technology stocks performed well, with Google and Amazon rising over 2%, and Nvidia and Meta increasing by more than 1% [3]. - Nvidia reached new highs, while Apple and Intel saw slight increases, and Microsoft and Tesla experienced minor pullbacks [3]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.1% month-over-month and 2.3% year-over-year, with the core PCE index increasing by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3]. - Consumer confidence improved significantly, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rising to 60.7, the highest level in four months, reflecting better economic outlooks and reduced concerns about personal finances [3]. Market Expectations - Financial markets are adjusting expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy, with a 76% probability of a rate cut in September and only a 19% chance for a cut in July [3]. Commodity Market - Gold prices fell by 1.6% to $3287.6 per ounce, while WTI crude oil rose by 0.43% to $65.52 per barrel, and Brent crude increased by 0.16% to $66.80 per barrel [4].

对于何时降息，美联储内部"观望派"与"行动派"的争议公然摆上台面。 美联储主席鲍威尔在国会作证时对于7月降息的可能性有所"松口"，叠加两位美联储官员意外转向鸽 派，令市场嗅到了降息将至的气息。然而，市场的乐观情绪未能延续多久——次日，多位美联储官员就 集体"泼冷水"，强调需要更多数据确保贸易政策不会持续推高通胀。 美联储内部对于经济前景的分歧已然公开化，这与6月点阵图透露的信号不谋而合。从最新一期的美联 储利率"点阵图"来看，在19位官员中，有7位认为美联储今年不应该降息，有8位支持降息两次。从上述 数据来看，支持年内降息两次和不降息的人数几乎持平，可见美联储内部对经济形势判断呈现多元化特 征。 观望仍是主基调 为何美联储内部对于经济走势和政策应对的分歧如此之大？美联储究竟在观望什么？ 业内人士普遍认为，美联储降息的主要掣肘仍在于贸易政策的不确定性，需要等待更为明确的数据，以 判断贸易政策对通胀的"冲击"程度。 业内人士普遍认为，在贸易政策对通胀的"冲击"尚未完全显现之前，美联储仍有理由"静观其变"。多重 因素交织之下，市场押注9月开启降息的可能性逐步上升。 美联储内部"裂痕"加深 继美联储"明星"理事的鸽派 ...

文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析与强 大的理论，我是翁富豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操作建议，投 资有风险，盈亏自负。 黄金昨日呈现冲高回落走势，日线收出十字星形态。尽管此前收出小阳线，但反弹力度不足且缺乏持续性， 未能形成有效上行突破，表明黄金自3452高点以来的调整趋势尚未完结，日内仍存下行空间。当前行情呈现 阴跌特征，不宜期待价格大幅反弹后进场做空——反弹幅度扩大会削弱下行动能。周五亚市早盘金价延续跌 势，逐步逼近3280支撑位，该区域支撑结构密集，直接追空风险较高，目前翁富豪建议维持反弹做空策略， 反弹至3297-3302区域做空，止损在3310，目标看向3290-3270 周五（6月27日）北京时间20:30，美国商务部经济分析局发布5月个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数，该数据作 为美联储核心通胀监测指标，揭示了美国经济在通胀压力与消费动能间的博弈态势。叠加关税政策预期引发 的市场避险情绪，投资者对美联储货币政策路径的预期呈现分化。数据公布后，金融市场即时响应：美元指 数短线回落约10个基点，折射市场对通胀 ...

巴西财长Haddad：通胀正在下降，雷亚尔兑美元汇率正在走强。 ...

卢特尼克补充说，各国将在7月9日被归入"适当的类别"。不过，特朗普也可能延长期限，以便有更多谈 判时间。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特同样向媒体表示，特朗普政府可能会"签署"大约十几项贸易协议，在9月1 日美国劳动节假期前"完成"贸易谈判。但贝森特没有透露可能达成协议的国家。 5月通胀指标超预期 备受美联储青睐的通胀指标——个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数表现略超预期。美国商务部公布数据显 示：美国5月PCE指数同比增长2.3%，预期2.3%；美国5月核心PCE指数同比增长2.68%，预期2.6%，创 2025年2月以来新高。 在多个贸易协议达成的利好刺激下，周五美国开盘后持续上涨。标普500指数和纳斯达克指数创出历史 新高。 与此同时，美国经济前景愈发复杂。备受青睐的通胀指标PCE表现超预期，特朗普政府经济政策带来的 不确定性正日益影响经济增长前景。 多个贸易协议即将达成 美国商务部长卢特尼克（Howard Lutnick）周五表示，白宫即将与十个主要贸易伙伴达成一系列协议。 卢特尼克在接受采访时还表示，特朗普准备在未来两周内敲定一系列贸易协议，以配合他7月9日恢复高 关税的最后期限。特朗普还表示，如果无法及时 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a significant rally, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching all-time highs [1][11] - The S&P 500 index is reported at 6178.3 points, up 0.59%, while the Nasdaq index is at 20294.93 points, up 0.64% [11] - The technology sector is leading the market recovery, with the S&P 500 index rising over 20% since its low on April 8 [11][12] Group 2 - The U.S. economy is facing increasing complexity, with the PCE inflation indicator exceeding expectations [2][6] - The PCE index for May shows a year-over-year increase of 2.3%, while the core PCE index rose by 2.68%, the highest since February 2025 [7][8] - Economists predict that inflation may rise in the coming months as higher import tariffs are passed on to consumers [8] Group 3 - The U.S. Commerce Secretary announced that the White House is close to finalizing trade agreements with ten major trading partners [4][5] - The Trump administration aims to complete these trade negotiations before the Labor Day holiday on September 1 [5] - If agreements are not reached in time, Trump may issue letters to specify trade terms directly [4] Group 4 - Nike's stock surged by 14% after reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings, despite a 12% year-over-year revenue decline [13] - Nike's revenue for the quarter was $11.1 billion, exceeding market expectations of $10.72 billion [13] - The company indicated that the trend of declining annual sales is beginning to ease, suggesting the effectiveness of CEO Elliott Hill's strategic initiatives [13]

周五，美联储青睐的通胀指标出炉。 美国5月核心PCE物价指数高于预期，年通胀率进一步偏离美联储2%目标。 数据公布后，市场反应平淡。周五美股三大股指高开，道指现涨0.87%，标普500指数涨0.6%，纳指涨0.55%。 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标普500指数 | 6177.66 | +36.64 | +0.60% | | .SPX | | | | | 道琼斯指数 | 43764.03 | +377.19 | +0.87% | | .DJI | | | | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 20279.75 | +111.84 | +0.55% | | .IXIC | | | | 美元指数在短线走低后上扬，现涨0.06%报97.354。 | ■ USDindex 分时 多日 日K 周K 月K 季K 年K 1分 3分 5分 10分 15分 30分 1小时 : 1天:1分K 。 显示▽ ② | | --- | | + ピッピット・ | 温和上升 数据显示，5月美国个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数环比上涨0.1%，同比上涨2.3%，符合市场预期。 ...