Report Information - Report Title: "Asphalt Morning Report" [2] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: June 4, 2025 [3] Key Data Summary Futures Contracts - BU主力合约: Price on 6/3 was 3482, with a weekly change of -44 [4] - BU06: Price on 6/3 was 3479, daily change 27, weekly change -60 [4] - BU09: Price on 6/3 was 3456, daily change 42, weekly change -22 [4] - BU12: Price on 6/3 was 3291, daily change 54, weekly change -6 [4] - BU03: Price on 6/3 was 3260, weekly change 2 [4] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Volume: 406179 on 6/3, daily change -173747, weekly change 13911 [4] - Open Interest: 423125 on 6/3, daily change 2661, weekly change 35582 [4] - Inventory: Remained 55160 from 4/30 to 6/3, no change [4] Spot Prices - Shandong Market Low-end Price: 3470 on 6/3, daily and weekly change 20 [4] - East China Market Low-end Price: 3550 on 6/3, daily change 30, weekly change 30 [4] - South China Market Low-end Price: 3360 on 6/3, daily change 80, weekly change -20 [4] - North China Market Low-end Price: 3640 on 6/3, weekly change 60 [4] - Northeast Market Low-end Price: 3780 on 6/3, weekly change 80 [4] Basis and Calendar Spreads - Shandong Basis: -12 on 6/3, daily change -5, weekly change 64 [4] - East China Basis: 68 on 6/3, daily change 5, weekly change 74 [4] - South China Basis: -122 on 6/3, weekly change 24 [4] - 03 - 06 Spread: -219 on 6/3, daily change 32, weekly change 62 [4] - 06 - 09 Spread: 23 on 6/3, daily change -15, weekly change -38 [4] - 09 - 12 Spread: 158 on 6/3, daily change -12, weekly change -16 [4] - 12 - 03 Spread: 31 on 6/3, daily change -5, weekly change -8 [4] - Consecutive Spread: 9 on 6/3, daily change -10, weekly change -10 [4] Crack Spreads and Profits - Asphalt Brent Crack Spread: 73 on 6/3, daily change -25, weekly change -22 [4] - Asphalt Ma Rui Profit: -23 on 6/3, weekly change -20 [4] - Ordinary Refinery Comprehensive Profit: 534 on 6/3 [4] - Ma Rui-type Refinery Comprehensive Profit: Data for 6/3 is N/A [4] - Import Profit (South Korea - East China): -194 on 6/3, daily change -93, weekly change -100 [4] - Import Profit (Singapore - South China): -1031 on 6/3, daily change 63, weekly change -34 [4] Related Prices - Brent Crude Oil: 64.6 on 6/3, daily change 0.7, weekly change 0.5 [4] - Shandong Gasoline Market Price: 7575 on 6/3, daily change 92, weekly change 146 [4] - Shandong Diesel Market Price: 6664 on 6/3, daily change 88, weekly change 132 [4] - Shandong Residue Oil Market Price: 3710 on 6/3, daily change -50, weekly change -82 [4]

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-06-04 一、指数走势 06 月 03 日，上证综指涨跌幅 0.43%，收于 3361.98 点，成交额 4682.93 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 0.16%，收于 10057.17 点，成交额 6731.17 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅 0.72%，成交额 2342.97 亿元，其中开盘价 6009.18，收盘价 6070.04，当日最高价 6086.62，最低价 6008.54； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅 0.42%，成交额 1599.97 亿元，其中开盘价 5653.67，收盘价 5694.84，当日最高价 5710.42，最低价 5653.3； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 0.31%，成交额 2267.83 亿元，其中开盘价 3833.46，收盘价 3852.01，当日最高价 3863.3，最低价 3832.72； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.32%，成交额 590.77 亿元，其中开盘价 2674.77，收盘价 2687.3，当日最高价 2697.39，最低价 2671.34。 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 二、板块涨跌对指数影响 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity atmosphere has improved, but the overseas trade situation is volatile. Different metals show different price trends and influencing factors. For example, copper prices may face resistance in rising, aluminum prices may fluctuate weakly in the short - term, zinc prices have a large downward risk, and tin prices may see a downward shift in the center of gravity [1][3][5][7]. 3. Summary According to Different Metals Copper - **Price Movement**: LME copper rose 0.24% to $9638/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,180 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper main contract is 77,500 - 78,800 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9500 - 9700/ton [1]. - **Industry Situation**: LME inventory decreased by 4600 tons to 143,850 tons, with the cancelled warrant ratio increasing to 51.7%. During the Dragon Boat Festival, domestic social inventory increased by over 10,000 tons. The SHFE copper warrant decreased by 0.3 to 31,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai increased, while in Guangdong, the spot changed from premium to discount. The import loss of domestic copper spot remained around 800 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 1330 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: LME aluminum fell 0.1% to $2470/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 19,990 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 19,850 - 20,150 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2440 - 2500/ton [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The SHFE aluminum weighted contract open interest increased by 0.8 to 523,000 lots, and the futures warrant slightly decreased to 51,000 tons. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 0.8 to 519,000 tons, and the inventory of aluminum rods in the mainstream areas decreased slightly. The spot in East China remained at a premium of 110 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 368,000 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio declined to 12.5% [3]. Lead - **Price Movement**: SHFE lead index rose 99.74% to 16,568 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S rose to $1969.5/ton [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The domestic social inventory increased to 44,900 tons. The demand for lead ingots is weak, the production of primary lead is increasing, while the production of recycled lead is decreasing due to factors such as limited raw material inventory and high finished - product inventory [4]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: SHFE zinc index fell 0.24% to 22,065 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S rose to $2673/ton. Zinc prices still have a large downward risk [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The zinc concentrate processing fee increased again, and it is expected that the domestic refined zinc production in June 2025 will be 590,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons or 7.43%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.13%. The terminal consumption is weak, and the social inventory of zinc ingots is accumulating [5]. Tin - **Price Movement**: Tin prices oscillated. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract this week is 230,000 - 260,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin is $28,000 - 31,000/ton. The tin price center may shift downward [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The mine restart is progressing. The Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) started phased restart in late April, and the first batch of tin concentrates has entered the logistics. The Wa State tin mine restart was approved in late April, and actual production is expected to resume from July to August. The smelting end has a low operating rate due to raw material shortage. The downstream demand has not increased significantly, but there is some demand for replenishment at low prices [6][7]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Nickel prices oscillated weakly. The expected operating range for SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - 16,500/ton. It is recommended to short at high prices [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The refined nickel production is at a historical high. The stainless - steel market is mediocre, and the downstream acceptance of high - price nickel is limited. The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore is stable, the price of Indonesian pyrometallurgical ore is difficult to rise due to demand, and the price of hydrometallurgical ore is stable after a decline [8]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Movement**: The MMLC spot index closed at 60,537 yuan, a decrease of 0.33%. The expected operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's carbonate lithium 2507 contract is 59,200 - 61,200 yuan/ton. Lithium prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [10]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index rose 1.18% to 2992 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2800 - 3300 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short lightly at high prices [11][12]. - **Industry Situation**: The spot prices in some regions increased. The import window is open. The futures inventory decreased. The price of bauxite in Guinea and Australia remained stable [11][12]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43%. The cost support is high, but under the pattern of oversupply, the market is pessimistic [14]. - **Industry Situation**: The spot prices in some markets remained stable. The raw - material prices were mostly stable, and the social inventory decreased to 1.1177 million tons, with a 0.85% month - on - month increase. The 300 - series inventory decreased by 3.42% [14].

6月3日股指期货套利监测日报 金十期货6月3日讯， 2.月差：沪深300IF2506-2507价差为37.2，上证50IH2506-2507价差为30.6，中证500IC2506-2507价差为 70.6，中证1000IM2506-2507价差为88.2。 1.基差：沪深300 IF2506合约贴水27.21，上证50 IH2506合约贴水18.7，中证500 IC2506合约贴水56.44， 中证1000 IM2506合约贴水72.04； ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the LPG market are still weak overall, with expected overall supply growth, some support from Shandong's chemical demand, but weak combustion demand [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price Changes - In the civil gas segment, prices in Shandong increased by 40 to 4550, remained stable in East China at 4505, and decreased by 40 to 4710 in South China; ether - post C4 decreased by 40 to 4640, and the cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4505 [1]. - The PG futures price declined with the drop in oil prices. The basis of the 07 contract is currently 513; the 07 - 08 spread is 84, and the 07 - 09 spread is 150 [1]. - The import cost increased, PP prices rose, and PP production profit decreased. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window opened [1]. Weekly Changes - From Monday to Thursday, the PG futures price fluctuated upwards, and on Friday, it significantly declined due to the drop in oil prices. The basis of the 07 contract strengthened, and the spreads of 07 - 08 and 07 - 09 also strengthened [1]. - In the external market, FEI and MB slightly declined, while CP slightly increased; the oil - gas ratios in North Asia and the US fluctuated, and the oil - gas ratio in the Middle East declined. The official June CP price decreased, with propane and butane at 600/570 (-10/-20) dollars [1]. Fundamentals - Arrivals slightly increased, chemical demand rose, civil gas sales were sluggish, and overall port inventories decreased; refinery inventories generally increased [1]. - Supply increased by 2.46% in terms of commercial volume, and it is expected to continue to rise, while arrivals are expected to decrease [1]. - The PDH operating rate rebounded to 63.26% (+2.11pct), production margins declined, and the processing profits of FEI and CP are similar. It is expected that the PDH operating rate will continue to rise next week [1]. - The alkylation operating rate and commercial volume increased, and profitability rebounded significantly. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to climb next week [1]. - MTBE prices first rose and then fell, production remained basically flat, and the profits of gas - fraction etherification and isomerization etherification increased significantly. It is expected that MTBE supply will increase, and there may be some replenishment demand after the Dragon Boat Festival, which will support C4 demand [1]. - As temperatures rise, combustion demand is expected to decline [1].

甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/05/2 3 801 2302 2303 2460 2600 2460 2630 256 327 70 50 -818 2025/05/2 6 801 2285 2300 2410 2565 2460 2525 256 327 58 40 -843 2025/05/2 7 801 2250 2275 2390 2520 2325 2505 254 327 39 40 -828 2025/05/2 8 801 2255 2275 2355 2520 2300 2500 255 327 29 25 -825 2025/05/2 9 801 2245 2278 2353 2510 2300 2495 255 327 32 15 -836 日度变化 0 -10 3 -2 -10 0 -5 0 0 3 -10 -11 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘面低估值，等待淡季预期交易到位；伊朗降开工，非伊增量，国内供应增 加，总体来说处于利 空兑 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated. The 380 near - end ran strongly, the monthly spread strengthened again, and the basis fluctuated. The low - sulfur crack spread fluctuated, the near - end monthly spread declined, and the basis fluctuated. This week, there was a significant inventory build - up in Singapore on land, a slight inventory build - up at ARA ports, and a drawdown of residual oil in the US. Recently, the low - sulfur valuation has been realized, and there is room for repair in the crack spread and the inter - month spread after the supply recovers. The high - sulfur crack spread is running strongly, with profits higher than the historical average. This year, in China, affected by the consumption tax deduction and tariff adjustment, the refinery feedstock demand for fuel oil has dropped significantly. In terms of marine fuel, the global high - sulfur marine fuel from January to March increased by 2% year - on - year, while that in Singapore remained basically flat, and the total marine fuel was weaker year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs on global trade activities. Recently, Saudi Arabia's net imports have rebounded, and Egypt's purchases have continued, leading to a strong near - end of high - sulfur fuel oil. Attention should be paid to the opportunity for the long - term decline of the high - sulfur crack spread [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From May 23 to May 29, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF Swap M1 decreased by 8.89, Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO Swap M1 decreased by 7.24, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.37, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 decreased by 9.66, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 2.42, LGO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.49, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by 1.65 [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From May 23 to May 29, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased by 9.09, Singapore 180cst M1 decreased by 7.78, Singapore VLSFO M1 increased by 8.82, Singapore GO M1 increased by 1.61, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by 0.07, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased by 3.10 [3][10] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From May 23 to May 29, 2025, the FOB price of Singapore 380cst increased by 6.41, the FOB price of Singapore VLSFO increased by 5.99, the 380 basis increased by 0.45, the high - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased by 1.9, and the low - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased by 1.1 [4] Domestic FU Data - From May 23 to May 29, 2025, the price of FU 01 increased by 62, FU 05 increased by 57, FU 09 increased by 73, FU 01 - 05 increased by 5, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 16, and FU 09 - 01 increased by 11 [4] Domestic LU Data - From May 23 to May 29, 2025, the price of LU 01 increased by 71, LU 05 increased by 56, LU 09 increased by 83, LU 01 - 05 increased by 15, LU 05 - 09 decreased by 27, and LU 09 - 01 increased by 12 [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Expected supply to increase, chemical demand to rise, and combustion demand to be weak, with an overall weak fundamental situation [1] Summary by Relevant Content Price Changes - On Thursday, for civil gas, prices in Shandong increased by 20 to 4510, in East China decreased by 12 to 4505, and in South China decreased by 50 to 4750; etherified C4 decreased by 60 to 4680; the cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4510 [1] - CP import cost slightly increased, PP remained flat, and PP production profit slightly increased; PG futures prices were strong, with the 06 contract basis at -28 (latest 85), the 06 - 07 monthly spread at -8 (latest 87), and the 07 - 09 monthly spread at 3 (latest 156); the US - Far East arbitrage window opened [1] - Civil gas prices significantly declined, etherified C4 rebounded, the cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4480; PG futures prices declined due to weak spot prices; the 06 contract basis was 385 (+139), the 06 - 07 monthly spread was 54 (-27), and the 07 - 08 monthly spread was 61 (-15) [1] - In the external market, FEI and MB declined, CP increased, the oil - gas ratio fluctuated; the internal - external price difference significantly declined, and FEI - MOPJ slightly declined; freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East declined [1] Supply and Demand - Arrivals decreased significantly, exports were sluggish, and overall port inventories decreased; factory inventories were basically flat; the commercial volume slightly increased and was expected to continue increasing; at the same time, expected arrivals were expected to increase [1] - PDH operating rate rebounded to 61.15% (+3.17pct), production gross profit declined, and PDH operation was expected to continue to rebound next week; alkylation operating rate and commercial volume remained flat, profitability significantly declined to -40.5 (-308), and operation was expected to slightly increase next week [1] - MTBE prices generally declined by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, MTBE production was basically flat, profits from gas fractionation etherification and isomerization etherification declined; expected MTBE supply to fluctuate narrowly, gasoline demand difficult to improve, and prices may not fluctuate much [1] - As the temperature rises, combustion demand is expected to decline [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil in Malaysia aims to use B30 bio - fuel in the transport sector by 2030, with a short - term expectation of further oscillatory rebound. In China, Dalian palm oil futures rose sharply due to the increase in Malaysian palm oil, and may further strengthen and test the 8200 resistance. - For US soybean oil, the fundamental situation hasn't changed much. The recent rebound of CBOT soybean oil is mainly driven by the rise in NYMEX crude oil, but the trade frictions between the US and other countries limit its increase. In China, the spot price fluctuates narrowly, the basis quote is mainly stable with a slight decline in some areas. The factory operating rate is expected to rise, and the market is in a traditional demand off - season, which may lead to a decline in the basis quote [1]. 2.2 Meal Industry - US soybean spring sowing is progressing smoothly with a fast overall sowing progress, and there is limited room for dry - weather speculation. Brazil's supply pressure is still being realized, and China has suspended importing soybeans from the US. The domestic soybean arrival in the later period is abundant, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. However, the current low inventory of soybean meal in oil mills and the low basis level suggest that the basis is expected to stabilize. The two meals are expected to maintain an oscillatory structure, and there may be a short - term callback risk for soybean meal after rising above 2950 yuan/ton [2]. 2.3 Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs maintains a slight oscillation. The pig slaughter volume increases, the weight declines steadily, the secondary fattening is rolling out, and the replenishment willingness is limited. The improvement of the supply - demand situation is limited. There is some pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking demand, which supports the pig price, but the supply is abundant, so it's difficult for the price to rise. The current breeding profit exists, but the market capacity expansion is cautious, and the price has no basis for a sharp decline or strong upward drive. Attention should be paid to the support around 13500 on the futures market [5]. 2.4 Corn Industry - The remaining grain in the grassroots has been basically sold out. The market supply and price change with the grain - selling rhythm of traders. Traders are optimistic about the future market and hold back from selling. The price rebounds locally and remains stable overall with strong bottom support. The downstream deep - processing industry has continuous losses and reduces the operating rate, and the inventory declines slightly. The breeding end mainly replenishes inventory as a rigid demand, but the small price difference between corn and wheat and the concentrated listing of wheat limit the increase of corn price. In the long - term, the tightening supply, weakened import and substitution, and increasing breeding demand will support the upward movement of corn price. In the short - term, the market pays more attention to the wheat market, and the overall trading of corn is light with no strong unilateral driving force, maintaining an interval oscillation [7]. 2.5 Sugar Industry - Global weather is favorable for sugar production recovery. The dry weather in Brazil speeds up the harvest, and the wet weather in India and Thailand benefits the growth of sugarcane crops. The 25/26 supply outlook is optimistic, and the raw sugar is expected to oscillate weakly. Considering that a large amount of raw sugar hasn't entered the domestic market, it still supports the sugar price. The market focus is on the future import rhythm. The domestic supply - demand situation is generally loose, and the increasing long - term supply is the strongest inhibitory factor. The sugar price is expected to maintain an oscillatory weak trend [10]. 2.6 Cotton Industry - The downstream of the cotton industry has rigid demand resilience. The current downstream operating rate hasn't decreased significantly, the finished product inventory is not high, and the spot basis of raw - material cotton is firm, providing strong support for the cotton price. However, the long - term demand expectation is not strong, and there is no strong driving force for the price to rise. In the short - term, the domestic cotton price is expected to oscillate within an interval [11]. 2.7 Egg Industry - The national egg supply is relatively sufficient, which has a certain negative impact on the egg price. The demand may first decrease and then increase, which is the main factor affecting the egg price fluctuation. The national egg price is expected to first decline and then rise this week with a small adjustment range [13]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - **Soybean oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu remains unchanged at 8100 yuan, the futures price (Y2509) drops from 7492 to 7478 yuan (-0.19%), the basis (Y2509) increases by 14 yuan (2.30%), and the warehouse receipt decreases by 65 to 17152 (-0.38%). - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong rises from 8600 to 8700 yuan (1.16%), the futures price (P2509) increases from 8000 to 8082 yuan (1.03%), the basis (P2509) rises by 18 yuan (3.00%), the盘面 import cost in Guangzhou Port for September increases by 64 yuan (0.74%), and the盘面 import profit increases by 18 yuan (2.81%). - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu remains unchanged at 9600 yuan, the futures price (O1509) drops from 9073 to 9070 yuan (-0.03%), the basis (O1509) increases by 3 yuan (0.57%), and the warehouse receipt decreases by 412 [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - **Inter - period spreads**: The 09 - 01 spread of soybean oil increases from 18 to 30 yuan (66.67%), the 09 - 01 spread of palm oil increases from 16 to 30 yuan (87.50%), and the 09 - 01 spread of rapeseed oil decreases from 169 to 167 yuan (-1.18%). - **Cross - variety spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spread decreases, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread changes slightly [1]. 3.2 Meal Industry 3.2.1 Price and Basis Changes - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu drops from 2940 to 2930 yuan (-0.34%), the futures price (M2509) rises from 2961 to 2962 yuan (0.03%), the basis decreases, and the warehouse receipt decreases by 110 to 26899 (-0.4%). - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu drops from 2530 to 2520 yuan (-0.40%), the futures price (RM2509) rises from 2604 to 2618 yuan (0.54%), the basis decreases, and the warehouse receipt decreases by 394 to 27615 (-1.41%) [2]. 3.2.2 Import and Spread Information - The盘面 import profit of Brazilian soybeans for July shipment increases by 13 yuan, and the 09 - 01 spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal changes [2]. 3.3 Pig Industry 3.3.1 Futures and Spot Indicators - Futures: The main contract price drops from 970 to 890 yuan/ton (-8.25%), the price of live - hog 2507 drops from 13260 to 13215 yuan (-0.34%), the price of live - hog 2509 rises from 13560 to 13640 yuan (0.59%), and the 7 - 9 spread increases from 300 to 425 yuan (41.67%). The main contract position increases by 1488 to 79448 (1.91%), and the warehouse receipt remains unchanged at 450. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions remain unchanged, the sample - point slaughter volume increases by 4051 to 155211 (2.68%), the weekly white - strip price drops from 20.71 to 20.60 yuan (-0.53%), the weekly piglet price remains unchanged at 28.00 yuan/kg, the weekly sow price remains unchanged at 32.53 yuan/kg, the weekly slaughter weight drops from 129.38 to 129.18 kg (-0.15%), the weekly self - breeding profit drops from 81 to 48 yuan/head (-40.23%), the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit drops from 48 to - 16 yuan/head (-133.32%), and the monthly fertile sow inventory drops from 4039 to 4038 million heads (-0.02%) [5]. 3.4 Corn Industry 3.4.1 Corn - The price of corn 2507 rises from 2325 to 2332 yuan (0.30%), the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price remains unchanged at 2320 yuan, the basis drops from - 5 to - 12 yuan (-140.00%), the 7 - 9 spread increases from - 24 to - 20 yuan (16.67%), the Shekou bulk - grain price drops from 2410 to 2400 yuan (-0.41%), the north - south trade profit drops from 14 to 4 yuan (-71.43%), the CIF price drops from 2063 to 2056 yuan (-0.37%), the import profit drops from 347 to 344 yuan (-0.71%), the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing in the morning drops from 747 to 626 (-16.20%), the position drops from 2025642 to 2010114 (-0.77%), and the warehouse receipt drops from 217099 to 216419 (-0.31%) [7]. 3.4.2 Corn Starch - The price of corn starch 2507 rises from 2663 to 2676 yuan (0.49%), the Changchun spot price and the Weifang spot price remain unchanged. The basis drops from 27 to 14 yuan (-48.15%), the 7 - 9 spread increases from - 60 to - 58 yuan (3.33%), the starch - corn futures spread increases from 338 to 344 yuan (1.78%), the Shandong starch profit rises from - 157 to - 151 yuan (3.82%), the position drops from 324840 to 320150 (-1.44%), and the warehouse receipt remains unchanged at 25252 [7]. 3.5 Sugar Industry 3.5.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The price of sugar 2601 drops from 5674 to 5660 yuan (-0.25%), the price of sugar 2509 drops from 5795 to 5783 yuan (-0.21%), the ICE raw - sugar main contract price drops from 17.25 to 16.91 cents/pound (-1.97%), the 1 - 9 spread drops from - 121 to - 123 yuan (-1.65%). The main contract position increases by 415 to 308960 (0.13%), and the warehouse receipt decreases by 100 to 31481 (-0.32%). - Spot: The Nanning and Kunming spot prices remain unchanged. The Nanning basis increases by 12 yuan (3.33%), the Kunming basis increases by 12 yuan (7.27%). The price of imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) drops from 4696 to 4680 yuan (-0.34%), and the price of imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) drops from 5974 to 5952 yuan (-0.37%) [10]. 3.5.2 Industry Situation - The national sugar production and sales increase, the industrial inventory decreases, and the sugar import increases significantly [10]. 3.6 Cotton Industry 3.6.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The price of cotton 2509 drops from 13330 to 13320 yuan (-0.08%), the price of cotton 2601 rises from 13375 to 13390 yuan (0.11%), the ICE US cotton main contract price drops from 65.33 to 65.03 cents/pound (-0.46%), the 9 - 1 spread drops from - 45 to - 70 yuan (-55.56%). The main contract position decreases by 10069 to 552461 (-1.79%), the warehouse receipt decreases by 52 to 11157 (-0.46%), and the effective forecast increases by 29 to 380 (8.26%). - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B and the CC Index: 3128B rise slightly, the FC Index:M: 1% drops slightly, and the relevant spreads change [11]. 3.6.2 Industry Indicators - The national inventory, industrial inventory, and import volume of cotton decrease, the bonded - area inventory decreases, the textile industry inventory increases year - on - year, the yarn and fabric inventory days increase, the cotton outbound shipment volume increases, the spinning enterprise's immediate processing profit drops, and the clothing and textile retail and export data change [11]. 3.7 Egg Industry - The price of the egg 09 contract rises from 3722 to 3750 yuan/500KG (0.75%), the price of the egg 06 contract rises from 2662 to 2689 yuan/500KG (1.01%), the egg - producing area price remains unchanged at 3.05 yuan/jin, the basis drops from 170 to 134 yuan/500KG (-20.99%), the 9 - 6 spread rises from 1061 to 1060 yuan (0.09%). The egg - chicken chick price remains unchanged, the culled - chicken price drops from 5.22 to 5.12 yuan/jin (-1.92%), the egg - feed ratio rises from 2.51 to 2.53 (0.80%), and the breeding profit rises from - 17.22 to - 15.96 yuan/feather (7.32%) [13].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-5-30 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：4月官方PMI为 49%，较3月下降1.5个百分点，财新PMI录得 50.4%，较3月下降0.8 个百分点，均为近几个月新低。宏观方面，关税博弈成为近期最重要影响因素，短期关税缓和提 振市场情绪，中长期来看最终谈判结果仍存不确定性。原油和煤炭价格均偏弱，成本端支撑减弱。 供需端，农膜淡季，中小工厂停车多，新产能投产压力仍存。当前LL交割品现货价7100（-0）， 基本面整体中性 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差128，升贴水比例1.8%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存58.4万吨（-0），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位 ...