1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound space of soda ash and glass is limited due to market sentiment disturbances. For soda ash, the futures price has shifted upward due to macro - disturbances and maintenance expectations. Although the high supply currently exerts pressure on prices, there is an expectation of marginal improvement in May. For glass, the sales - to - production ratio has rebounded, but the pessimistic market expectation remains unchanged [1][4][54]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash 3.1.1 Price - **Futures Price**: From April 21 to April 25, 2025, the prices of 2505, 2509, and 2601 contracts increased by 32, 25, and 14 respectively. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 7, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 11. The basis of the main contract increased by 17 [6]. - **Spot Price**: During the same period, the price of heavy - alkali in some regions remained stable, while the price of light - alkali in the central region decreased by 40 [6]. 3.1.2 Supply - The overall capacity utilization rate decreased slightly by 0.06 percentage points to 89.44%. The weekly output decreased by 0.05 million tons to 75.51 million tons, a decrease of 0.07%. The heavy - alkali output decreased by 0.10 million tons to 41.55 million tons, a decrease of 0.24%. Although the light - alkali output increased slightly by 0.05 million tons to 33.96 million tons, an increase of 0.15%, the high supply still exerts pressure on prices. However, there is an expectation of a decrease in production in early May as the number of maintenance enterprises gradually increases [7]. 3.1.3 Demand - The daily output of float glass decreased by 0.07 million tons to 15.78 million tons, a decrease of 0.44%. The daily output of photovoltaic glass increased by 0.08 million tons to 9.73 million tons, an increase of 0.83%. The apparent demand for light - alkali decreased by 1.97 million tons to 33.60 million tons, a decrease of 5.54% [7]. 3.1.4 Inventory - The total inventory decreased by 2.03 million tons to 169.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.19%. The heavy - alkali inventory decreased by 2.39 million tons to 84.05 million tons, a decrease of 2.76%, while the light - alkali inventory increased slightly by 0.36 million tons to 85.05 million tons, an increase of 0.43% [7]. 3.1.5 Profit - The profit of the combined - soda process increased by 101.40 yuan/ton to 255.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 110.13%. The profit of the ammonia - soda process increased by 78.25 yuan/ton to 17.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 121.85% [52]. 3.1.6 Market Outlook - In the short term, the price of soda ash may fluctuate or fluctuate slightly upward as the expectation of inventory accumulation in alkali plants is low. In the long term, high supply and high inventory will still suppress prices [8]. 3.2 Glass 3.2.1 Price - **Futures Price**: From April 21 to April 25, 2025, the prices of 2505, 2509, and 2601 contracts changed by 13, - 9, and - 7 respectively. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 22, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2 [56]. - **Spot Price**: During the same period, the price of 5mm glass in Shahe increased by 4 yuan/ton, while the price in North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the prices in other regions remained stable [56]. 3.2.2 Supply - The capacity utilization rate increased slightly by 0.19 percentage points to 75.85%. The daily output decreased by 0.07 million tons to 15.78 million tons, and the weekly output decreased by 0.35 million tons to 110.58 million tons. The supply remained relatively stable [57]. 3.2.3 Demand - The apparent demand decreased by 2.95 million tons to 108.61 million tons, a decrease of 3%. The orders of processing plants varied, with most orders increasing slightly but not significantly. Most purchases of raw glass were for rigid demand, and the sales - to - production ratio declined significantly in the second half of the week [57]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The total inventory increased by 39.5 million weight - cases to 6547.3 million weight - cases, an increase of 1%. The inventory of traders in Shahe decreased by 44 million weight - cases to 360 million weight - cases, a decrease of 11% [57]. 3.2.5 Profit - The profit of natural - gas - fired glass increased by 13.72 yuan/ton to - 153.13 yuan/ton, an increase of 8%. The profit of coal - gas - fired glass increased by 16.36 yuan/ton to 145.05 yuan/ton, an increase of 13%. The profit of petroleum - coke - fired glass decreased by 34.29 yuan/ton to - 38.35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 845% [57]. 3.2.6 Market Outlook - In the short term, the glass market has no obvious driving force on the fundamental side, and the price will maintain a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the changes in terminal demand after the holiday and the impact of the commodity market sentiment [58].

兴业期货日度策略：2025.04.28 重点策略推荐及操作建议： 商品期货方面：玻璃空头格局明确，工业硅承压，沪镍成本支撑坚挺。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： | 1.地产政策持稳，玻璃厂旺季累库，玻璃 FG509 前空持有； | | --- | | 2.库存继续累积，工业硅 SI2506-C-9000 卖看涨期权持有； | | 3.矿端紧张延续，沪镍卖出看跌期权 NI2506P120000 头寸持有。 | 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 政策预期降温，震荡格局延续 上周 A 股延续横盘整理，科技与红利主题反复轮动，沪深两市 | | | | | | 成交额维持在 1.2 万亿元左右。从行业来看，上周综合金融、汽车、 | | | | | | 电力及新能源板块涨幅居前，食品饮料、消费者服务、房地产跌幅 | | | | | | 居前。 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | 期货市场随现货指数震荡调整，上周五 IF、IH、IC 和 IM 涨跌 | | 张舒绮 | 联 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Coke: This week, coke continued the pattern of increasing supply and demand, with a more obvious increase on the demand side. The short - term fundamentals of coke are acceptable, and the main futures contract maintained a low - level volatile operation. However, current macro - level disturbances are still intense. There were repeated Sino - US trade frictions in April, and there is strong uncertainty about the future of the tariff dispute. China's domestic demand boost policies are imminent. The Political Bureau meeting of the CPC Central Committee on April 25 proposed to implement more proactive macro - policies, make full use of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Overall, the medium - and long - term logic of coke remains unchanged. The cost - side drag caused by the loose supply of coking coal and concerns about terminal demand compress the rebound space of coke futures. But short - term macro - level disturbances and marginal improvements in coke's own fundamentals provide some support for prices. It is expected that the main coke contract will maintain a low - level volatile operation in the near future, and attention should be paid to domestic policy developments [5][34]. - Coking coal: From March to April, there were no major production accidents in Shanxi, and the coal mine safety supervision environment in the region was relatively stable, with output remaining at a high level. In March, the raw coal output in Shanxi increased by 19.1% year - on - year, and since April, the coal output in Shanxi has continued to operate at a high level, and it is expected to record a positive year - on - year growth. Meanwhile, the import volume of Mongolian coal in April improved significantly compared with March. At present, although the price of coking coal has been falling continuously, the situation of loose supply has not been reversed, and the overall fundamentals are still bearish. In the spot market, the latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1,035 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, and the cost of the equivalent futures warehouse receipt is about 1,008 yuan/ton. Overall, the fundamental pressure on coking coal still exists, but recent macro - level disturbances are intense, and the market's long - short game has intensified. The main coking coal contract temporarily maintains a low - level volatile operation. Attention should be paid to whether there will be domestic demand boost policies in the future [6][35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry News - The National Energy Administration reported that in the first quarter, the national energy supply was sufficient, and the overall supply - demand situation was loose. Energy production increased steadily, and the growth rate of coal, oil, gas, and electricity production accelerated in March. In the first quarter, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above designated size was 1.2 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%; in March, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 9.6% year - on - year, with a daily output of more than 14 million tons. The crude oil output of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first quarter was 54.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%, and in March, it increased by 3.5% year - on - year. The natural gas output of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first quarter was 66 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%, and in March, it increased by 5.0% year - on - year. The cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide in the first quarter reached 3.43 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. In March, the growth rate of power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size was 3.1 percentage points higher than that from January to February [8]. - On April 28, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. The ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) was 1,300 yuan/ton, including tax in cash [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1,440 | 0.00% | 3.60% | - 14.79% | - 25.77% | | Coke (Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,350 | 0.75% | - 0.74% | - 16.67% | - 33.50% | | Coking coal (Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port) | 1,035 | 0.00% | - 4.17% | - 12.29% | - 35.31% | | Coking coal (Australian - produced at Jingtang Port) | 1,300 | - 0.76% | - 5.11% | - 12.75% | - 41.96% | | Coking coal (Shanxi - produced at Jingtang Port) | 1,400 | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 8.50% | - 34.88% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,562.0 | - 1.20 | 1,587.0 | 1,553.5 | 23,887 | - 2,703 | 36,957 | 145 | | Coking coal | | 947.0 | - 1.66 | 968.0 | 943.5 | 387,146 | - 63,343 | 339,613 | 2,996 | [13] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to coke and coking coal inventories, including 230 independent coking plants' coke inventory, 247 steel mills' coking plants' coke inventory, port coke total inventory, coke total inventory, mine - mouth coking coal inventory, port coking coal inventory, 247 sample steel mills' coking coal inventory, and other relevant production and consumption - related charts such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production situation, coal washing plant production situation, and coking plant operation situation [14][21][28] Market Outlook - Coke: This week, coke continued the pattern of increasing supply and demand, with a more obvious increase on the demand side. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and the main futures contract maintains a low - level volatile operation. Due to intense macro - level disturbances and the unchanged medium - and long - term logic, it is expected to maintain a low - level volatile operation in the near future, and attention should be paid to domestic policy developments [34] - Coking coal: From March to April, the coal output in Shanxi remained high, and the import volume of Mongolian coal improved in April. The supply is still loose, and the fundamentals are bearish. The main contract temporarily maintains a low - level volatile operation, and attention should be paid to whether there will be domestic demand boost policies [35]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.39%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.59% on April 25[4] - Main capital inflows were noted in the power, software development, and communication equipment sectors, with net inflows of 64.08 billion CNY for Shanghai and 95.24 billion CNY for Shenzhen[5] Policy and Economic Insights - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies, including potential interest rate cuts and increased fiscal measures to support the economy[6] - China's GDP growth rate for Q1 was reported at 5.4%, indicating a stable economic recovery despite global uncertainties[9] Sector Performance - The power, real estate, home appliance, textile, and internet sectors showed significant gains, while traditional energy sectors like precious metals and chemicals experienced declines[2] - A notable 33.62% year-on-year increase in nationwide rail-sea transport of goods was reported, highlighting growth in logistics[12] Investment Strategy - Short-term strategies should focus on defensive sectors and investment opportunities mentioned in the recent political bureau meeting, while long-term investments should align with state-supported industries[2] - Institutional research activity surged to 31,000 instances in one month, reflecting a 49% increase, indicating a strong focus on performance-driven sectors[15]

央行官员表示，将按照中央政治局会议精神，加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足适度宽松的 货币政策，根据国内外经济形势和金融市场运行情况，适时降准降息。 人社部官员表示，将加快推出增量政策，对企业加大扩岗支持，对个人加大就业补贴支持，对受关税影 响较大的企业提高失业保险稳岗返还比例等。 商务部官员表示，将聚焦广大企业需求，及时解决困难问题，以钉钉子精神抓好已经出台的稳外贸政策 落地见效。 每经记者 郑步春 每经编辑 彭水萍 周一A股表现稍弱，各大股指普跌，全市场超4100个股下跌。截至收盘，上证综指跌0.2%至3288.41 点；深综指跌0.93%，创业板综指跌1.01%，科创50指数跌0.17%，北证50指数跌1.78%。全A总成交额 为10768亿元，较上周五的11370亿元略有萎缩。 银行、钢铁、电力等红利股表现较好，PEEK材料、游戏、珠宝首饰、培育钻石等板块表现也相对较 好。旅游酒店、食品饮料、乳业等消费类个股表现较弱，房地产板块也普跌。 周一上午国新办举行新闻发布会，发改委官员表示，更好发挥内需主动力作用，具体思路和方法也非常 明确，就是增加中低收入群体收入、大力提振消费，扩大有效投资，做强国内 ...

216 | 中共中央政治局会议:要加紧实施 习近平:做好 更加积极有为的宏观政策 Financial Weekly 4月28日 每周金融评论 00 Financial Weekly 每周金融评论 | 目录 CONTENTS 热点聚焦 FOCUS ◎ 习近平:做好科技金融文章 MEETINGS ◎ 中共中央政治局会议:要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策 POLICES ◎ 中国人民银行等联合印发《上海国际金融中心进一步 提升跨境金融服务便利化行动方案》 EVENTS ◎ 商务部等六部门: 下调离境退税起退点 ■要数字 DATA ◎ 由降转增! 一季度规模以上下业个业利润同比增长0.8% 刻 深 展 想 前 盯警 Ani a H2 3 清华金融评论 ■ 专注于经济金融政策解读与建言的智库型全媒体平台 5 元/篇 36 电子刊 纸质刊 热点聚 焦 习近平：做好科技金融文章 中共中央政治局4月25日下午就加强人工智能发展和监管进行第二十次集体学习。中共中央总书记习近平在主持学习时强调，面 对新一代人工智能技术快速演进的新形势，要充分发挥新型举国体制优势，坚持自立自强，突出应用导向，推动我国人工智能朝 着有益、安全、公平 ...

点评： 1、一季度国内经济实现"开门红"，二季度将实施更加积极有为的宏观政策 会议对当前经济形势做出研判，指出"我国经济呈现向好态势"，但同时，"经济持续回升向 好的基础还需要进一步稳固，外部冲击影响加大"。从数据来看，2025年一季度GDP增长5.4%， 增速高于市场预期和全年增长目标，国民经济实现良好开局，经济面修复改善。宏观政策方面， 会议强调"要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货 币政策"。财政政策方面，4月财政部启动今年1.3万亿元超长期特别国债和5000亿元中央金融机构 注资特别国债发行，加之会议提出"加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用"，预 计未来一段时间地方政府债券还会保持较快发行节奏。总体看，国内财政政策空间充足。货币政 策方面，由于一季度经济超预期，4月LPR继续保持不变。此外，目前我国经济修复动能呈现增强 趋势，A股市场整体表现较为韧性，人民币汇率短期面临一定压力，所以短期宽货币政策或有所 延后。但与此同时，受外部经贸环境变化影响，宏观政策助力稳增长的必要性上升，4月央行MLF 净投放达到5000亿元，为连续第二个月加量续作，此次会议也延 ...

沪铜产业日报 2025/4/28 | | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 77,580.00 | +140.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,375.00 | +15.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 230.00 | +50.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 165,067.00 | -866.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -11,156.00 | +3471.00↑ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 203,450.00 | +25.00↑ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 116,753.00 | -54858.00↓ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 77,250.00 | +1200.00↑ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日, ...

铝类产业日报 2025/4/28 电解铝观点 总结 美联储开始进入静默期，市场普遍预期，美联储利率决议将连续第三次维持利率不变。国内方面，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议强 调，"适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕，加力支持实体经济"。财长蓝佛安：中国将采取更加积极有为的宏观政策。基本面上，电解铝供给端，国内电解铝厂复产完成， 在运行产能及开工率皆保持高位运行，加之成本端略有下移，整体生产意愿较强，供给稳定。电解铝供给端，冶炼厂利润情况较好，前期部分因亏损而停减产的情况已复 产完成，令国内在运行产能小幅提升，国内供应量相对充足。需求端，在国际贸易环境受阻的背景下，下游铝材加工企业或将更多受益于扩内需政策的作用，由终端消费 行业的发力拉动下游需求增长。库存方面，国内电解铝社会库存降库节奏继续，下游开工及需求回升，库存稳步去化。总体来看，电解铝基本面或将处于供需双增、稳步 去库的阶段。期权方面，购沽比为0.61，环比+0.0163，期权市场情绪偏空，隐含波动率略降。技术上，60分钟MACD，双线位于0轴上方，绿柱收敛。操作建议，轻仓 震荡交易，注意控制节奏及交易风险。 重点关注 数据来源第三 ...

Investment Rating - Strongly Recommended (expected to outperform the market by more than 20% within 6 months) [55] Core Insights - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized responding to external uncertainties with high-quality development, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations while implementing proactive macro policies [4][13] - Strengthened regulation of universal insurance aims to address existing issues and promote healthy market development through a comprehensive regulatory framework [5][16] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission introduced unified regulations for information disclosure exemptions, enhancing transparency and protecting investor rights [6][20] Summary by Sections Political Bureau Meeting - The meeting highlighted the need for high-quality development to counter external uncertainties, with a focus on stabilizing key economic factors and implementing proactive fiscal and monetary policies [4][13] - Emphasis on enhancing consumer spending and supporting struggling enterprises while managing risks in key sectors [13] Universal Insurance Regulation - The National Financial Supervision Administration issued a notice to strengthen the regulation of universal insurance, focusing on product management, account management, and sales practices [5][16] - A one-year transition period is provided for existing policies that do not meet new requirements, ensuring market stability [16] Information Disclosure Regulations - The CSRC's new regulations clarify the types of information that can be exempted from disclosure, balancing the need for confidentiality with investor rights [6][20] - Companies are required to maintain accurate and complete disclosures, with strict internal procedures for managing disclosure exemptions [20] Industry News - The banking sector saw a net injection of 740 billion yuan through open market operations, with SHIBOR rates declining [38][39] - The securities market experienced a weekly average trading volume of 13.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous week [42] - The insurance sector's ten-year government bond yield increased by 0.84 basis points, indicating market trends [50]