张尧浠：避险加关税再起忧虑、黄金增强看涨前景预期 上交易日周一(1月19日)：国际黄金受美国总统特朗普在格陵兰岛争端中对多个欧洲国家发出加征关税警告所激发的避险需求推动，高开高走，再度收 阳，维持多头看涨前景，但目前走势触及上升趋势线压力附近，也有短线回落调整的需求，不过，如有回撤调整，下方各短周期均线支撑，也是再度入场 看涨的机会，反之，如继续反弹走强收阳至趋势线阻力上方，则将顺势跟进继续看涨上行。 具体走势上，金价自亚市高开于4615.41美元/盎司，先行录得日内低点4615.08美元，之后反弹拉升，触及日内高点4689.23美元，半小时内即出高低点， 在之后，多头动力有所减弱，并维持基本维持在4655-4677区间内持续盘整，一直到日收盘，收于4671.91美元，相对于上周五收盘价4594.07美元，周振幅 95.16美元，收涨77.84美元，涨幅1.69%。 展望今日周二(1月20日)：国际黄金开盘走势有所偏弱，面临阻力调整需求，和日内短周期的背离形态，以及美元指数早盘的止跌走强压力，但多头仍具 优势和前景。短期如有进一步回撤，下方关注各周期的均线支撑，也都是入场看涨机会。 日内无重点关注数据及事件， ...

Market Overview - US stock futures showed a significant decline with Dow Jones futures down 0.83%, S&P 500 futures down 0.88%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.09% due to the market being closed for a holiday [1] - Major European stock indices also fell, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.72%, FTSE 100 down 0.39%, CAC 40 down 1.78%, DAX 30 down 1.34%, and FTSE MIB down 1.32% [1] Precious Metals - Gold prices reached a historical high, with spot gold rising by 2% to $4690.88 per ounce, currently reported at $4675.76 per ounce [3] - Silver prices also surged over 5%, reaching $94.726 per ounce, currently reported at $94.479 per ounce [4] Economic Concerns - Economists warned that if President Trump quickly advances new tariff threats, the UK could face a recession risk, with GDP projected to decline by 0.3% to 0.75% [6] - The World Bank estimated that if tariffs are raised to 25% starting in June, the UK economy could suffer a loss of £21.6 billion [6] - Current quarterly growth for the UK economy is only 0.2% to 0.3%, and a sudden shock could trigger a recession [6] Federal Reserve Developments - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is set to attend a Supreme Court hearing regarding the potential dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, marking an unusual public statement of support [6] - The Supreme Court is reviewing whether President Trump has the authority to dismiss Cook, who was appointed by former President Biden [6] - According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is 5%, with a 95% chance of maintaining current rates; by March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 20.7% [7]

Report Information - Report Title: Commodities Weekly Report - Report Date: January 19, 2026 - Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Qualification Number: F03090299 [1][5] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the commodity market rose 1.13% overall, with precious metals leading at 9.41%, while black, agricultural products, and energy and chemicals declined by 0.08%, 0.15%, and 0.98% respectively. Short - term geopolitical disturbances are numerous, and the commodity market may fluctuate. [2][6] - The US economic data shows resilience, Fed officials are negative about short - term rate cuts, and it's almost certain that the rate will remain unchanged in January. In China, December's import - export and social financing data are better than expected, indicating continuous and moderate economic improvement. [2] - The nomination of the next Fed Chair may be decided this week. [2] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Market Performance Summary - **Market Index** - Last week, the overall commodity market rose 1.13%. Precious metals led with a 9.41% increase, non - ferrous metals rose slightly by 0.89%, while black, agricultural products, and energy and chemicals declined by 0.08%, 0.15%, and 0.98% respectively. [2][6] - The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with non - ferrous and precious metal sectors having larger fluctuations. [2][6] - Only the precious metal and black sectors had net capital inflows, with 32.5 billion yuan flowing into the precious metal sector. [2][6] - **Top Gainers and Losers** - The top - rising varieties were up 20.03%, 14.95%, and 4.1%. The top - falling varieties were glass, rapeseed meal, and a certain variety, down 3.58%, 3.55%, and 3.39% respectively. [6] 3.2 Outlook for Each Sector - **Precious Metals** - The Iran situation is tense, the US is pressuring Greenland and imposing additional tariffs on many European countries. Trump's challenges to the global order make the upward trend of precious metals unchanged. In the short term, they may fluctuate strongly. [2] - **Non - Ferrous Metals** - Recent domestic and international data are positive, indicating economic recovery. The US dollar index is under pressure, and the macro - environment is neutral to positive. The SHFE inventory continues to accumulate, the LME is in a destocking state, and most spot premiums are weakening. Supply - side contraction risks still exist, supporting the sector's prices. In the short term, the sector may fluctuate. [2] - **Black Metals** - The apparent demand for rebar has rebounded, production has slightly decreased, and the inventory - building pace has slowed. December's steel exports reached a new high. Steel mill profits have marginally recovered, but due to insufficient downstream acceptance, blast furnace复产 has slowed, and hot metal production has decreased. The peak of iron ore's phased supply has passed, port inventories continue to increase, and the structural contradiction still exists but is expected to ease. The coal price may fluctuate weakly due to rising total inventories and high Mongolian coal customs clearance data. In the short term, the sector may fluctuate. [3] - **Energy** - The Iran situation is tense but under control, and the geopolitical risk premium has declined. The market is becoming desensitized to geopolitical issues, and the geopolitical premium space is limited unless a conflict actually occurs. The latest EIA weekly data shows a significant increase in US commercial crude oil inventories. In the first quarter of 2026, global crude oil supply - demand shows significant inventory pressure, and oversupply is the main factor suppressing oil prices. Oil prices may be under pressure in the short term. [3] - **Chemicals** - For polyester varieties, the short - term upward driving force has weakened. For building material varieties, PVC's operating rate has slightly increased, some enterprises' exports have increased, but downstream operating rates have declined, and procurement enthusiasm is low. Attention should be paid to whether export tax rebates will drive export - rushing and create month - spread arbitrage opportunities. In 2026, PVC is expected to reduce production capacity, and the futures price center is expected to rise. Glass production capacity has been continuously reduced to 150100 tons. In the long term, glass supply will decrease, and supply - demand pressure will ease. As the downstream approaches the holiday, seasonal inventory accumulation may occur. [4] - **Agricultural Products** - Brazil's IBGE expects the 2026 soybean output to increase by 2.5% compared to 2025. The impact of La Nina is gradually fading, and the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America has returned as the main trading logic. The US biomass fuel policy's certainty has increased, and the policy is expected to be announced in early March. In the short term, oilseeds and fats may fluctuate. [4] 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs** - Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around 2.85% - 2.90%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 263.587 billion yuan, with a 0.79% increase. The total trading volume was 754.651862 million shares, with a 2.19% increase. [37] - **Other Commodity ETFs** - The energy and chemical ETF had a - 0.96% return, the soybean meal ETF had a - 1.86% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a 3.78% return, and the silver fund had a 23.15% return. The total scale of all commodity ETFs was 279.532 billion yuan, with a 1.85% increase, and the total trading volume was 2288.502384 million shares, with an 8.63% increase. [37][39]

Metal Market - Domestic base metals collectively declined, with most metals falling over 1%, led by Shanghai tin which dropped 5.98% [1] - Shanghai lead fell 2.33%, Shanghai zinc dropped 1.91%, and Shanghai nickel decreased by 1.42% [1] - In the black metal sector, iron ore fell 2.58% and rebar dropped 1.04% [1] - External markets showed mixed results, with London tin rising 1.87% and London nickel increasing by 0.76% [1] Precious Metals - COMEX gold rose 1.88%, reaching a new high of $4698 per ounce, while COMEX silver surged 5.58% to a peak of $94.365 per ounce [1] - Domestic gold increased by 1.54%, with Shanghai gold hitting a record of 1050.4 yuan per gram [1] - Platinum fell 0.48%, while palladium rose 0.64% [1] Industrial Commodities - Lithium carbonate dropped 3.83%, while industrial silicon rose 1.61% and polysilicon increased by 0.63% [1] - Alumina and casting aluminum saw slight declines of 1.19% and 0.11% respectively [1]

【博时市场点评1月19日】A股缩量震荡，两市走势分化 每日观点 今日沪深三大指数走势分化，两市成交较上周五缩量至2.7万亿，资金交易热度有所降温。截至上周 五，两融余额继站上2.7万亿后仍继续放量。美国近日发布了11月消费数据，总体有所回升，主要是因 为11月是传统消费旺季，感恩节、"黑五"与圣诞节都会刺激消费需求，并且关税政策与政府停摆扰动影 响减弱。往后看，25年四季度美国经济增速或在政府停摆的冲击下承压，低基数效应或有利于26年一季 度GDP增速的环比反弹。因此，美联储在降息问题上或将保持谨慎的立场。短期看，市场将聚焦1月29 日美联储议息会议，这将是鲍威尔最后一次主持，届时特朗普或提名新主席人选，受此影响市场波动率 或上升；中期维度，若4–5月通胀持续回落，则6月降息落地概率较高，全球风险资产或有望受到支撑。 消息面 1月19日，国家统计局数据显示，初步核算，2025年国内生产总值1401879亿元，按不变价格计算，比上 年增长5.0%。12月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.2%，环比增长0.49%。社会消费品零售总额 45136亿元，同比增长0.9%。全年全国固定资产投资（不含农户）48518 ...

新华财经北京1月19日电上周（1月12日至16日当周）国际现货黄金震荡走高，当周上涨85.67美元或 1.9%，连续第二周收阳。 分析来看，随着围绕美联储独立性、关税走向及中东局势的不确定性升温，地缘紧张与美国国内政治动 荡交织，金银向上突破，再度刷新历史新高。 展望新的一周，特朗普有关关税和格陵兰岛等地缘局势的表态仍引发市场高度关注。此外，美国PCE数 据公布在即，美联储货币政策的动向也仍是贵金属市场的焦点。 地缘紧张与美国国内动荡，金银再创历史新高 俄乌冲突仍在延宕，美国在1月3日对委内瑞拉发起大规模军事行动之后近期又对伊朗频频发出威胁，加 上格陵兰岛局势，整体地缘局势呈现收紧状态。这推动上周一国际金银跳空高开，并在日内震荡走高。 地缘紧张局势无疑是导致避险资金持续流入贵金属并推高贵金属价格的重要原因。 地缘紧张与美国国内动荡使得贵金属市场获益明显。上周初，金价将历史高位刷新到4642.85美元／盎 司；白银表现更为亮眼，当周高点至93.70美元／盎司，年度累计涨幅达到近30%的水平。 戏剧性的是，上周后半周，地缘局势带来的利多突然发生变化。随着特朗普表态将对伊朗局势"拭目以 待"之后，地缘局势出现明显降 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged significantly, reaching a historical high, driven by geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar, despite reduced bets on future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - As of January 19, gold prices rose to approximately $4669.12 per ounce, supported by the EMA50 moving average and a short-term upward trend line [1]. - The price is expected to continue its upward trajectory, potentially reaching the $4700 mark or higher in the near term [2]. - The recent upward movement in gold prices is attributed to a rebound since the low in late October, indicating a confirmed short-term upward trend [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - President Trump threatened new tariffs on eight European countries opposing his Greenland acquisition plan, raising concerns about a broader transatlantic trade dispute [1]. - This geopolitical risk has triggered a wave of risk aversion among investors, leading them to seek refuge in traditional safe-haven assets like gold [1]. - Concerns over the U.S.-China trade war have also contributed to a crisis of confidence in U.S. assets, causing the dollar to correct from its recent highs [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently supported by the 5-10 day moving averages, with the 15-minute MA20 at 4643.8 and the 30-minute moving average system completing a bullish arrangement near 4616 [2]. - Key support levels have shifted, with 4650 now acting as support, while resistance levels are noted at 4699 and 4718 [2]. - The MACD indicator remains above zero, indicating strengthening bullish momentum, while the RSI is at 69.96, approaching overbought territory, which may limit further gains [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical tensions have intensified due to the Trump administration's threat of military action against Iran, and the expectation of Hassett becoming the Fed Chair has changed, causing precious metal prices to remain strong. The Fed held its December FOMC meeting, cutting interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and initiating a reserve management - style balance - sheet expansion. The US employment situation has slowed down, and Powell stated that changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut rates. With the expected change in Hassett's appointment, the market anticipates fewer rate cuts this year. US economic data has shown a downward trend, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are expected to rise. The lease rates of platinum and palladium remain high, and their prices are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the US November PCE data to be released on Thursday [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Gold: Due to the Trump administration's threat of military action against Iran, geopolitical tensions have risen, and the expectation of Hassett becoming the Fed Chair has changed. Gold prices have shown a strong - side oscillation. As of last Friday, COMEX gold closed at $4,601 per ounce, up 1.8% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4,650, and the lower support level is $4,500 [6]. - Silver: Due to the same factors and the continued shortage of silver spot, silver prices have risen strongly. As of last Friday, the weekly gain was 12.7%, closing at $90 per ounce. The lower support level is $87, and the upper resistance level is $95 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - Precious metal prices will continue to be strong. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December and started balance - sheet expansion. The US employment situation is weakening, and the expected change in Hassett's appointment has led to a decrease in the expected number of rate cuts this year. US economic data is deteriorating, and there are concerns about the fiscal situation and Fed independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain. Silver spot is in short supply, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are expected to rise. Platinum and palladium prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the US November PCE data on Thursday [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - Economic data: The US December CPI annual rate (unadjusted) was 2.7%, in line with expectations and the previous value; the US November PPI annual rate was 3%, higher than the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 2.7%; the US November retail sales monthly rate was 0.6%, higher than the expected 0.4% and the previous value of 0; the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 10 was 1.98 million, lower than the expected 2.15 million and the previous value of 2.08 million [23]. 3.4 Current Week's Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies - Kansas City Fed President Schmid opposed rate cuts, stating that inflation is "overheating" and that Trump's policies will boost economic momentum, putting upward pressure on prices. He saw little reason for further rate cuts and emphasized the Fed's independence. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly decreased last week, possibly due to challenges in seasonal adjustment. The number decreased by 9,000 to 1.98 million, lower than the expected 2.15 million. - President Trump hesitated to nominate Kevin Hassett as the Fed Chair, hoping he would continue as a White House advisor, increasing the uncertainty of finding the next Fed Chair [24]. 3.5 Inventory - Gold: COMEX inventory decreased by 5,474.74 kg to 1,123,953 kg this week, while SHFE inventory increased by 2,400 kg to 100,053 kg. - Silver: COMEX inventory decreased by 329,201.37 kg to 13,348,267.37 kg, while SHFE inventory increased by 6,581 kg to 626,843 kg [13]. 3.6 Fund Holdings - As of January 13, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 230,463 contracts, an increase of 16,720 contracts from last week. - The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 30,625 contracts, an increase of 2,093 contracts from last week [13]. 3.7 This Week's Focus - On Thursday, January 22, at 23:00, the US November PCE price index annual rate will be released. - On Friday, January 23, at 22:45, the preliminary value of the US January SPGI manufacturing PMI will be released [35].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent surge in gold and silver prices, driven by macroeconomic factors such as easing inflation in the U.S. and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which support the long-term upward trend of precious metals [1][3]. Group 1: Gold and Silver Price Movements - On January 19, international gold and silver prices reached new highs, with spot gold peaking at $4690.88 per ounce and COMEX gold at $4698 per ounce, both showing an increase of over 2%. Spot silver reached $94.12 per ounce, with a rise exceeding 4%, while COMEX silver hit $94.365 per ounce, up over 6% [1]. - As international gold prices rise, domestic gold jewelry prices have also significantly increased [2]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - Recent economic data indicates a reduction in inflationary pressures in the U.S., with a weaker job market. The core CPI for December showed a rebound lower than expected, reinforcing expectations for interest rate cuts and a global easing cycle, which supports the rise in precious metals [3]. - The weakening of the U.S. dollar's credibility and ongoing central bank gold purchases provide solid support for gold prices, suggesting a continuation of the long-term upward trend [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Silver and platinum, possessing both financial and industrial attributes, are influenced by macroeconomic factors and additional support from supply-demand gaps. Silver supply remains tight due to limited mining output, while industrial demand, particularly from solar energy, remains robust, stimulating investment demand for silver [3]. - Platinum supply is also constrained, with increasing demand for catalytic converters in hybrid vehicles and hydrogen energy becoming a core growth source, activating investment demand for platinum as prices rise [3].

Core Viewpoint - International gold and silver prices have surged to new historical highs, driven by geopolitical tensions and investor demand for safe-haven assets [2][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On January 19, the London spot gold price reached a peak of $4,690 per ounce, marking an increase of over 2% and setting a new record [2]. - The previous closing price was $4,677.628, with an opening price of $4,595.860, indicating a significant upward movement [3]. Group 2: Silver Price Movement - Concurrently, spot silver prices also rose sharply, surpassing $94 per ounce with an increase of over 4%, achieving a new historical high [2]. - The previous closing price for silver was $93.174, with an opening price of $90.134, reflecting a notable rise [4]. Group 3: Jewelry Prices - Retail gold prices for jewelry remain high, with Chow Tai Fook's gold jewelry priced at 1,436 RMB per gram and Chow Sang Sang at 1,429 RMB per gram, both at recent peaks [6]. Group 4: Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing geopolitical tensions have heightened investor concerns, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6]. - Recent U.S. tariff threats against several countries have further fueled the influx of investment into the gold market, providing strong upward momentum for prices [8]. Group 5: Economic Data Influence - Recent U.S. consumer inflation data has reinforced market expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could support bullish sentiment in the gold market [8].