行 业 报 告 行业点评 证券分析师 | 王德安 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060511010006 | | | BQV509 | | | WANGDEAN002@pingan.com.cn | | 王跟海 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060523080001 | | | BVG944 | | | WANGGENHAI964@pingan.com.cn | 2026 年汽车以旧换新政策更加倾向中高端市场 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 汽车 2025 年 12 月 31 日 事项： 国家发展改革委、财政部印发《关于 2026 年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧 换新政策的通知》（以下简称《通知》），明确 2026 年"两新政策"的支持范围、 补贴标准和工作要求。在资金方面，2026 年直接向地方安排的消费品以旧换新 资金继续按照 9：1 的原则实习央地共担，此外国家已于近日向地方提前下达 2026 年第一批 625 亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新资金计划，满足元 旦、春节等旺季消费需求。 平安观点： 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 2026 年汽车补 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Continue to be bullish on equity assets in 2026, maintaining a "slow bull" pattern. However, the narrative of liquidity will weaken marginally, and the expectation of economic rebound remains weak, so the increase in 2026 may be smaller than that in 2025 [3][8] - Structurally, it is more optimistic about the opportunities in technology growth stocks and the profit repair direction of enterprises in the "anti-involution" line. It is more bullish on IM. If incremental policies for real estate and consumption are implemented, low-valued sectors have the dual opportunities of profit and valuation repair, and IF can be allocated [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs External Environment - **Sino-US Relations**: Before the US mid-term elections in 2026, Sino-US frictions will continue, but they are more of a means of game, and the probability of a significant increase in tariffs is small. Sino-US relations will be in a period of phased relaxation. Pay attention to the possible visit of Trump to China in April 2026, which may cause significant market fluctuations [5][16] - **US Interest Rate Policy**: The recent rise in the US unemployment rate to 4.6% and the decline in core CPI to 2.6% in November provide a basis for interest rate cuts. It is expected that there will be 2 - 3 interest rate cuts in 2026, with a space of 50 - 75BP [18] - **Global Capital Flow**: With the continuation of the global interest rate cut process, overseas funds' allocation demand is expected to further spill over to emerging markets. Chinese equity assets are cost-effective, and overseas funds are expected to contribute more marginal increments to the domestic market. However, Japan's interest rate hike to 0.75% may disrupt global capital spillover and weaken the capital spillover effect [23] Domestic Judgment - **Policy Orientation**: Fiscal policy remains positive, and monetary policy is moderately loose. The support at the macro level has not increased. The real estate market is in the deep - water area of stability, and policies to expand consumption are expected. The main lines of new quality productivity and anti - involution remain unchanged. Capital market policies aim to enhance internal market stability, with strict supervision as the norm [28][31] - **Economic Situation**: GDP growth rate will remain relatively stable at around 4.9% in 2026. Economic stability depends on the central government's borrowing. Manufacturing investment and infrastructure construction investment are expected to pick up in 2026, while the real estate market is still in a downturn. Domestic consumption improvement has fallen short of expectations, and exports may still drive GDP growth next year [34][35][38] - **Market Liquidity**: The A - share market will maintain sufficient liquidity in 2026. Incremental funds come from retail investors' new accounts, margin trading funds, index ETFs, dividend reinvestment, foreign capital, and long - term funds (insurance funds). However, attention should be paid to the impact of shareholder reductions and net outflows of southbound funds, as well as the IPO progress [52] Structural Judgment - **Industry Growth**: The economic growth engine is shifting, and structural opportunities still exist in 2026. Traditional industries such as real estate, construction, coal, and food and beverage are still under pressure of negative growth, while industries representing cutting - edge technologies such as computer, electronics, and power equipment maintain growth. Non - ferrous metals also benefit from technologies such as AI [62] - **Growth vs. Value Stocks**: The strength of domestic growth stocks and value stocks is highly correlated with the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond. It is expected that the US will cut interest rates 2 - 3 times in 2026, and the yield of the US Treasury bond has room to decline further, so growth stocks are expected to remain strong [70] - **Index Allocation**: From an absolute valuation perspective, the valuations of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300 are both below 15 times, with allocation value. If incremental policies for real estate and consumption are implemented, low - valued sectors have the dual opportunities of profit and valuation repair, and IF can be allocated. The absolute valuations of the CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext, and STAR 50 have increased significantly, pending verification of profit fundamentals. Among the four major index futures, the CSI 1000 has the highest annualized basis rate, which can provide a safety cushion, and can be allocated when its annualized basis rate is higher than 15% [71][75]

Group 1: Anti-Competition Measures - The core focus of the 2025 economic work report is the comprehensive rectification of "involution-style" competition, emphasizing legal governance of low-price disorderly competition and guiding companies to enhance product quality [1] - The newly revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law and Price Law provide institutional support for the "anti-involution" initiative, which has shown positive results in various sectors including platform economy, automotive, photovoltaic, and power batteries [1][2] - The photovoltaic industry has seen the establishment of a "polysilicon capacity integration acquisition platform," and manufacturers of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials have collectively raised prices [1] Group 2: State-Owned Enterprise Reform - 2025 marks the concluding year of the deepening reform of state-owned enterprises, with significant progress reported by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [2] - The reform has led to a clearer strategic function, more standardized corporate governance, and more scientific and effective state asset supervision [2] Group 3: Private Economy Promotion Law - The "Private Economy Promotion Law," effective from May 20, 2025, is China's first foundational law specifically for the development of the private economy, establishing multiple systems to promote fair competition and protect rights [3] Group 4: Local Government Debt Resolution - The resolution of local government debt risks is progressing rapidly, with a plan to replace 10 trillion yuan of hidden debts over five years, achieving nearly 6 trillion yuan in debt replacement by the end of 2025 [4] - The balance of hidden local government debt is expected to drop from 14.3 trillion yuan at the end of 2023 to below 8 trillion yuan by 2025, with significant savings in interest expenses [4] Group 5: Special Long-Term Bonds - The issuance of special long-term bonds reached 1.3 trillion yuan in 2025, an increase of 300 billion yuan from 2024, with 800 billion yuan allocated to support major projects and 500 billion yuan for expanding consumption policies [5] - The bonds have gained favor among institutions, showcasing their advantages in long-term investment and resource allocation [5] Group 6: Consumption Promotion Initiatives - The "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" launched in March 2025 includes seven major actions aimed at increasing residents' income and improving consumption quality [6][7] - The plan emphasizes stable employment and reasonable growth of wage income, marking a shift towards demand-side policies [6] Group 7: Social Security Regulations - 2025 is a pivotal year for the social security system, with new regulations encouraging flexible employment and ensuring comprehensive coverage for all workers [8] Group 8: A-Share Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4,000 points for the first time in ten years, driven by a recovery in the technology sector and supported by state funds [8][9] - A-share trading volume exceeded 400 trillion yuan for the first time, with total market capitalization surpassing 100 trillion yuan [9] Group 9: Gold Price Surge - Gold prices experienced a historic rise, reaching a peak of 4,550 USD per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 70% [10] - The surge is attributed to macroeconomic factors, geopolitical tensions, and significant purchases by central banks [10] Group 10: Innovation in AI and Robotics - The introduction of the "Innovation Growth Layer" on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has accelerated the IPO process for unprofitable companies, marking a significant step in capital market support for technology innovation [11] - The robotics industry saw a surge in new orders, indicating a shift from concept to practical applications in 2025 [12] Group 11: Changes in the Food Delivery Industry - The food delivery sector underwent significant changes with the entry of new players like JD.com and the upgrade of Ele.me, leading to increased competition and consumer choice [13] Group 12: Challenges in the Animation Industry - The success of "Nezha 2" with a box office of 15.446 billion yuan highlights the rise of Chinese animation, but the industry still faces challenges in global recognition and talent shortages [14][15] Group 13: Regulatory Changes in the Charging Industry - A safety crisis in the charging industry led to the implementation of stringent new regulations, resulting in a significant reshaping of the market [16] Group 14: Automotive Industry Marketing Issues - The automotive market is facing intense competition and marketing irregularities, prompting regulatory responses to restore order and promote healthy industry growth [17]

Market Overview - The market experienced a continuous pre-holiday rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving ten consecutive gains, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index both rose over 0.5% during the session [1][13] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][13] A-share Outlook - Several favorable factors are expected to support the performance of A-shares in the coming year, including a marginal improvement in manufacturing driven by "anti-involution," global liquidity easing, and a low interest rate environment encouraging institutional and individual investors to enter the market [1][13] - Investors are advised to focus on broad-based products like the CSI A500 ETF (159338) that bundle leading companies across various industries, and consider a "barbell" strategy combining technology and dividends as a satellite strategy [1][13] Gold and Precious Metals - The gold ETF (518800) fell by 2.05% due to overnight market fluctuations, although long-term support for gold prices remains strong from factors such as interest rate cuts, de-dollarization, and geopolitical tensions [3][16] - Recent volatility in precious metal prices was influenced by a significant rise in silver prices, which briefly surpassed $84 per ounce, marking a nearly 10% increase from the previous week's closing price [3][16] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised silver futures margins by 25% to address recent volatility, potentially forcing leveraged traders to partially liquidate positions [4][17] Robotics Sector - The robotics sector saw a notable increase, with the Robotics Industry ETF (159551) rising by 3.20% and the Industrial Mother Machine ETF (159667) increasing by 2.23% [6][18] - The growth in this sector is attributed to robotics being the ultimate carrier of AI, with expectations of significant developments in the U.S.-China competition landscape [6][19] - Tesla's upcoming V3 version is anticipated to evolve towards lightweight, compact, and highly integrated designs, with mass production expected to commence in Q1 next year [6][19] Chemical Industry - The chemical sector performed well, with the Chemical Leaders ETF (516220) rising by 1.79% [7][22] - PX prices have been increasing due to tight supply driven by rising demand for upstream toluene/xylene and the impact of downstream polyester filament and BOPET [8][22] - The polyester industry chain shows strong potential for "anti-involution," supported by nearing capacity limits, sustained demand growth, and high market share among leading companies [9][23]

Core Viewpoint - Major foreign financial institutions have expressed a positive outlook for China's stock market, driven by accelerating corporate earnings growth, macro policy coordination, and the appreciation of the RMB [1][3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Foreign institutions believe that the driving force behind the rise of China's stock market is shifting from "valuation correction" in 2025 to "earnings growth" in 2026 [3][4]. - Goldman Sachs predicts a 38% increase in the Chinese stock market by the end of 2027, primarily driven by a 14% and 12% increase in corporate earnings in 2026 and 2027, respectively [4][5]. - UBS has set a target of 7100 points for the Hang Seng Tech Index and 100 points for the MSCI China Index by the end of 2026, indicating significant upside potential [5]. Group 2: Investment Trends - There has been a net inflow of $83.1 billion into Chinese assets through ETFs since the beginning of 2025, with the technology sector receiving the most inflow at $9.5 billion [10][11]. - Active foreign capital is expected to return more rapidly, with some foreign institutions increasing their positions in the Chinese stock market in preparation for 2026 [12][13]. - The investment opportunities are highly structured, with a focus on technology innovation, green energy transition, and high-quality brands benefiting from consumer recovery [7][9]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The technology sector is highlighted as having the greatest profit growth potential, with revenue less affected by trade policies [7]. - Traditional sectors are also attracting foreign interest, with improvements in state-owned enterprise earnings and dividend increases drawing long-term capital [8]. - Under the "anti-involution" framework, sectors like cement, solar energy, and chemicals are expected to receive policy support and have attractive valuations [9].

Economic Overview - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has shown a slight recovery, reaching 5.22% as of December 21, up 0.06 percentage points from the previous week [2] - Real estate sales are improving, with the year-on-year decline in residential property transaction area narrowing to -19% for the week ending December 26, compared to -34% in November [2][3] - Infrastructure construction is seeing improvements, with the operating rate of asphalt plants rising to 31.3%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points from the previous week [2][3] Price Trends - Prices of major commodities have increased, with COMEX gold closing at $4546.2 per ounce (up 4.6%), LME copper at $12218 per ton (up 4.1%), and Brent crude oil at $60.6 per barrel (up 1.4%) [2][34] - The price of second-hand homes has decreased by 0.2% in first-tier cities and nationwide, with a cumulative decline of 6.3% in first-tier cities this year [37] Consumer Demand - Retail sales of passenger cars remain low, with a year-on-year growth rate of -11% in the third week of December, compared to -17% previously [13] - The average land premium rate across 100 cities was 1.6% in December, down from 2.7% in November [13] Production Insights - The operating rates in various industries are weak, with notable declines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines and full-steel tires [15] - The asphalt plant operating rate has improved, indicating a slight recovery in infrastructure [15] Trade Dynamics - Port container throughput has decreased by 5.9% week-on-week as of December 21, with a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [19] - The shipping market is showing positive trends, with the Shanghai export container freight index rising by 6.7% [20] Interest Rates - The yield on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds are reported at 1.2872%, 1.5948%, and 1.8376% respectively, with mixed changes compared to the previous week [47]

Group 1 - The core focus of China's economic work in 2025 is to comprehensively rectify "involution" and disorderly competition, with policies aimed at improving product quality and stabilizing market prices [2] - The reform of state-owned enterprises is nearing completion, with significant progress in strategic functions, governance, and regulatory efficiency [4] - The introduction of the Private Economy Promotion Law marks a significant legal framework for promoting fair competition and protecting the rights of private enterprises [5] Group 2 - The resolution of local government debt risks is progressing rapidly, with a plan to replace 10 trillion yuan of hidden debts, achieving over half of the target by the end of 2025 [6] - The issuance of ultra-long special government bonds reached 1.3 trillion yuan in 2025, with a focus on supporting major projects and expanding consumption [6][7] - A special action plan to boost consumption was launched, emphasizing income growth and improving consumer confidence [8] Group 3 - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index reach 4000 points for the first time in ten years, driven by a recovery in technology stocks and supportive government policies [10] - Gold prices experienced a historic surge, with spot prices rising from $2625 to a peak of $4550 per ounce, driven by macroeconomic factors and central bank purchases [11] - The introduction of the "Science and Technology Innovation Growth Layer" on the STAR Market accelerated the IPO process for unprofitable companies, marking a significant shift in capital market dynamics [12] Group 4 - The deposit interest rates in China underwent a comprehensive decline, with significant adjustments across various banks, impacting personal investment behaviors [12] - The external environment, including the U.S.-China trade tensions and geopolitical factors, influenced the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, leading to interest rate cuts [14] - The rise of DeepSeek as a key player in the AI sector reshaped global competition, emphasizing open-source strategies and high cost-performance [15] Group 5 - The external delivery market saw significant changes with the entry of new players like JD.com and the upgrade of Ele.me, leading to increased competition and consumer choice [18] - The family disputes within Wahaha highlighted the complexities of family governance in business, affecting brand perception and market dynamics [19] - The success of "Nezha 2" at the box office marked a significant milestone for Chinese animation, reflecting the industry's growth and potential for global recognition [21]

Core Insights - The express delivery industry is transitioning from a high-growth phase to a focus on efficiency and service competition, indicating a need for independent thinking and adaptation to new challenges [1] - The industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth rates, with the overall business volume growth dropping to 5% in November, down from 20% earlier in the year, suggesting a shift towards a more mature and stable growth phase [3] Group 1: Industry Trends - The "anti-involution" campaign initiated by the State Post Bureau aims to address the industry's low-price competition, leading to improved profitability for express companies, although some frontline outlets still face challenges due to rising costs [2] - The double eleven shopping festival saw a total of 139.38 billion packages collected, marking a 9% increase from the previous year, but the growth rate is slowing, indicating a potential shift in consumer behavior and market saturation [3] - The introduction of tax reporting requirements for online platforms starting October 1, 2025, will expose fraudulent activities such as order brushing, pushing the industry towards compliance and authenticity [5] Group 2: Company Developments - YTO Express launched its strategic hub, the Dongfang Tiandi Port, with an investment of 12.2 billion yuan, marking a significant step in its internationalization strategy and aiming to enhance its competitive edge in the logistics sector [6] - Shentong Express completed the acquisition of Daniao Logistics for 362 million yuan, enhancing its operational capabilities and positioning itself in the "quality express" market while Alibaba shifts its focus towards core strategic areas [7] - JD Logistics and SF Express are expanding their international operations, with JD launching a new self-operated B2C brand in Saudi Arabia and SF establishing international air routes, indicating a strong push towards global market penetration [14] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The integration of AI technologies in the express delivery sector is transforming operations, with applications in route optimization and operational efficiency, exemplified by YTO's "smart routing" system [9] - The rise of robotics in the industry is being observed, with advancements in sorting and delivery processes, although challenges remain in achieving efficiency comparable to human workers [15] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The frequent switching of return logistics among various express companies highlights the competitive nature of the market, with companies vying for the more profitable return business as opposed to standard deliveries [10] - The emergence of "sheep shearing" tactics among consumers exploiting platform loopholes poses a challenge for express companies, necessitating stricter regulations to protect the integrity of the logistics chain [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for different products are as follows: Threaded steel, hot rolled steel, and iron ore are rated ☆☆☆; coke and coking coal are rated ★☆★; silicon manganese and ferrosilicon are rated ★★☆ [1] Report's Core View - The steel market has minor supply - demand contradictions, with a cautious market sentiment. The short - term steel futures market will mainly fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to macro - policy changes. The iron ore price is expected to be supported in the short term but will mainly fluctuate. The coke and coking coal prices face fundamental pressure after discount repair, and the market has expectations for stimulus policies, leading to intensified capital games. For silicon manganese and ferrosilicon, it is recommended to try to go long on dips [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market fluctuated today. In the off - season, the apparent demand for threaded steel declined, while its production increased slightly and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot rolled steel recovered, with production rising slightly and inventory reduction accelerating, but the pressure still needs to be alleviated. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and the steel mill profits are marginally improving. The decline in blast furnace production has slowed down, and molten iron production has stabilized. The real estate investment decline continued to expand, and the investment growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing continued to decline. Domestic demand is still weak, while steel exports remain high. The market will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - policy changes [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market declined today. The global iron ore shipment increased month - on - month and reached a new high this year, while the domestic arrival volume decreased month - on - month with an expected increase in the future. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the news of a possible increase in stacking costs strengthened the supply release expectation. The steel mill profitability has improved recently, and the molten iron production last week was basically stable. The iron ore supply pressure is still high, but with the sign of molten iron production bottoming out and the expectation of steel mill winter storage replenishment, the short - term price is expected to be supported, and the future trend will mainly be fluctuating [3] Coke - The coke price fluctuated upward today. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has fully landed, the coking profit is average, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The coke inventory has slightly increased. Currently, downstream customers purchase on a small - scale and demand - based basis, and the purchasing willingness of traders is average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream molten iron production is at a seasonal low. The demand for raw materials still has some resilience, but the steel mills still have a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices. The coke futures price is at a premium, and after the discount repair, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. The market has certain expectations for stimulus policies, and the capital game in the futures market has intensified [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuated upward today. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume decreased seasonally. The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly. At the end of the year, some coal mines reduced or stopped production due to factors such as safety production and completion of annual production tasks. The spot auction transactions were okay, and the transaction price increased slightly. The terminal inventory increased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased slightly while the production - end inventory decreased slightly. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream molten iron production is at a seasonal low. The demand for raw materials still has some resilience, but the steel mills still have a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices. The coking coal futures price is at a discount, and after the discount repair, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. The market has certain expectations for stimulus policies, and the capital game in the futures market has intensified [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price fluctuated strongly today. Driven by the futures market rebound, the spot price of manganese ore increased. There is a structural problem in the current manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost - effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore is likely to increase. The semi - carbonate manganese ore price increased last week. The molten iron production decreased seasonally. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price fluctuated strongly today. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, leading to an expected decline in power costs and semi - coke prices. The molten iron production rebounded to a high - level range. The export demand decreased to over 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand still has some resilience. The ferrosilicon supply decreased significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive industry is entering a new development stage, emphasizing "high-quality development" over speed and scale, with a focus on efficiency, order, and long-term capability building [1][2] Group 1: Industry Trends - The term "anti-involution" has become a key focus in industry policy and regulation, shifting the automotive industry's understanding of development [1] - The ongoing price war and competitive tactics that breach reasonable boundaries highlight the need for companies to self-regulate and maintain manufacturing standards [1] Group 2: Company Positioning - Great Wall Motors has taken a proactive stance in addressing market disruptions, particularly regarding "zero-kilometer used cars," emphasizing the potential impact on industry credit and manufacturing foundations [1] - The company's chairman, Wei Jianjun, has publicly called for maintaining industry standards, aligning with national efforts to curb disorderly competition and promote high-quality development [1] Group 3: Product and Technology Focus - Great Wall Motors is committed to delivering technology to users, integrating VLA large model capabilities with Hi4 hybrid systems to enhance product experience in real-world scenarios [2] - The company’s approach emphasizes engineering-driven technology advancements, resulting in positive market feedback and improved sales and reputation [2] Group 4: Globalization Strategy - Unlike previous strategies that relied on export scale, Great Wall Motors is focusing on establishing local manufacturing capabilities and supply chain collaboration in overseas markets [2] - This shift from "selling overseas" to "rooting locally" aims to enhance stability and sustainability in its global operations [2] Group 5: Recognition - Great Wall Motors has been recognized in the "2025 Automotive Industry Influence Yearbook" as a representative company exemplifying high-quality development paths [2]