Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a strong bullish trend, driven by multiple favorable factors, including U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and supportive domestic policies [3][4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) has seen a price increase of over 1.5% today, currently up 1.3%, and has risen 52.82% since its low on April 8, significantly outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index (23.42%) and CSI 300 (25.92%) [1]. - Key stocks within the ETF include Huayu Mining, which rose over 7%, and Hailiang Co. and Yuyuan New Materials, both up over 6% [1]. Group 2: Economic Drivers - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are pushing up non-ferrous metal prices by devaluing the dollar, making metals cheaper for global buyers, and reducing borrowing costs for companies, which boosts demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [3][4]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's announcement of a growth stabilization plan for key industries, including non-ferrous metals, is seen as a continuation of the supply-side reform initiated in 2015, potentially revitalizing the sector [4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand balance is improving, with stricter regulations on rare earth mining and smelting leading to increased scarcity, while demand from green industries such as electric vehicles and renewable energy is surging [4]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that demand for key metals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel will increase sixfold by 2040, particularly driven by electric vehicle requirements [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Huabao Fund suggests increasing allocation to the non-ferrous sector, as the economic recovery is expected to boost demand for cyclical goods, with recent market performance benefiting from gold price movements and the ongoing dollar interest rate cycle [6]. - CITIC Securities indicates that the ongoing "anti-involution" policies aimed at optimizing production factors will enhance profitability across the supply chain, supporting upward price trends for metals [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Silver, Carbonate Lithium [1] - **Bearish**: Asphalt, PTA, Pure Benzene, Styrene, LPG [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Most other commodities including various metals, agricultural products, and energy - related products [1] Core Viewpoints - The stock index is bullish in the long - term, but there is a low probability of a unilateral upward trend before the National Day holiday, so it is recommended to control positions. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the short - term interest - rate risk warning from the central bank restrains the upward movement [1]. - For most commodities, market sentiment is changeable, and it is necessary to pay attention to domestic and foreign policy changes. The end - of - year demand season and supply - side factors such as production, inventory, and mine quota approvals have a significant impact on prices [1]. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: Long - term bullish, low probability of unilateral upward trend before National Day, control positions [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest - rate risk warning restrains upward movement [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Short - term likely to be strong, but beware of increased volatility before National Day [1] - **Copper**: Price is under pressure after the Fed's rate - cut decision, but expected to stabilize with overseas easing and domestic demand [1] - **Aluminum**: Pressured in the short - term, but limited downside due to the coming consumption season [1] - **Alumina**: Weak fundamentals, but limited downside as the price approaches the cost line [1] - **Zinc**: Social inventory increase pressures the price, back to fundamentals after macro events [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Short - term oscillation may be strong, affected by Indonesian mine quotas and raw material prices, operate short - term and light - position for the holiday [1] - **Tin**: There is an expectation of improvement in the demand peak season, pay attention to low - long opportunities [1] - **TV Silicon and Polysilicon**: Affected by supply resumption, production cut expectations, and market sentiment [1] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Bullish due to the approaching peak season of new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and continuous inventory reduction [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, and Iron Ore**: Valuation returns to neutral, unclear industrial drivers, and warm macro - drivers [1] - **Manganese Silicate and Silicon Iron**: Negative short - term fundamentals, supply recovery, potential demand weakening, and high inventory [1] - **Plate**: Supply surplus pressure persists, marginal improvement in peak - season demand, price under pressure [1] - **Soda Ash**: Supply surplus pressure is large, price under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a sharp callback, the bottom is supported, and the short - term may oscillate, consider reducing long positions [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: Palm oil may be long at low levels in the oscillation range; soybean oil is bullish in the long - term; rapeseed oil shows a de - stocking trend, recommend long and positive spreads between months [1] - **Cotton**: Short - term wide - range oscillation, potential pressure after new cotton is launched [1] - **Raw Sugar**: Bottom - out rebound, limited upside due to supply surplus, consider shorting at high levels [1] - **Corn**: Bearish in the short - term due to increased supply and price pressure from deep - processing plants [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Weak market sentiment in the short - term, be cautious and watch for changes in premium and discount quotes [1] - **Paper Pulp and Logs**: Paper pulp shows an initial bottom range, no significant bullish drivers; logs have stable fundamentals, futures oscillate [1] - **Live Hogs**: Bearish as the supply continues to increase and downstream demand is limited [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: Affected by factors such as US inventory decline, OPEC+ production increase, and Fed rate - cut [1] - **Asphalt**: Bearish as the demand may be falsified in the 14th Five - Year Plan period and supply is sufficient [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU and BR)**: RU may be affected by typhoons and inventory reduction; BR is affected by raw - material supply and market sentiment [1] - **PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, etc.**: PTA is bearish due to supply increase and price decline; ethylene glycol is affected by new device production and inventory; short - fiber is affected by device return and market sentiment [1] - **Pure Benzene, Styrene, and Urea**: Bearish for pure benzene and styrene due to supply increase; urea has limited upside and cost - side support [1] - **LPG**: Bearish due to OPEC production increase, high domestic inventory, and Fed rate - cut [1] Others - **Container Shipping (European Line)**: May rebound from low levels as the price approaches the cost line and enters the contract - changing period [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Silver, Carbonate Lithium, Soybean Oil (medium to long - term), Rapeseed Oil [1] - **Bearish**: Asphalt, PTA, Pure Benzene, Styrene, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] - **Sideways**: Macro - finance (including stocks and bonds), Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Polysilicon, Ribbed Bar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicide, Ferrosilicon, Plate, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, BR Rubber, Urea, PP, PVC, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Views - The stock index is bullish in the long - term, but the probability of a unilateral upward pattern in the market before the National Day holiday is low, and it is recommended to control positions. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward trend [1]. - Gold and silver prices may be strong in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the increased volatility risk before the National Day holiday [1]. - Copper and aluminum prices are under pressure in the short - term, but are expected to stabilize or have limited downside space due to overseas easing cycles and the arrival of the consumption season [1]. - The supply and demand situation of various industrial and agricultural products is complex, with different price trends affected by factors such as production, inventory, policy, and market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Stocks: Long - term bullish, low probability of unilateral rise before the National Day holiday, recommend controlling positions [1]. - Bonds: Favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risk warning from the central bank suppresses the upward trend [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Gold and Silver: Short - term bullish, but need to be cautious about pre - holiday volatility [1]. - Copper: Pressured in the short - term, but expected to stabilize with overseas easing and domestic demand improvement [1]. - Aluminum: Pressured in the short - term, but limited downside space due to the arrival of the consumption season [1]. - Alumina: Fundamentals are weak, but limited downside space as the price approaches the cost line [1]. - Zinc: Social inventory accumulation pressures the price, and attention should be paid to policy changes [1]. - Nickel: Short - term sideways to slightly bullish, with continuous attention to supply and macro changes [1]. - Stainless Steel: Short - term sideways to slightly bullish, with attention to actual production of steel mills [1]. - Tin: There is an expectation of demand improvement in the peak season, and low - long opportunities can be focused on [1]. - Polysilicon: Supply is recovering, with production reduction expectations and market sentiment influenced by rumors [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: Bullish due to the approaching peak season of new energy vehicles and strong energy storage demand [1]. Ferrous Metals - Ribbed Bar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore: Valuation returns to neutral, industrial driving force is unclear, and macro - driving force is positive [1]. - Manganese Silicide and Ferrosilicon: Short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, with supply recovery, possible demand weakening, and high inventory [1]. - Plate and Soda Ash: Supply surplus pressure exists, and prices are under pressure despite marginal improvement in peak - season demand [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After a sharp correction, there is strong bottom support, but the upward space is not open, and the pre - holiday market may be sideways [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Short - term sideways adjustment, consider going long at the lower end of the sideways range [1]. - Soybean Oil: Bullish in the medium to long - term, with attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiations on the market [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: There is a de - stocking trend, and it is recommended to go long and conduct positive spreads between months [1]. - Cotton: Short - term wide - range sideways, and the market may face pressure with the listing of new cotton in the long - term [1]. - Raw Sugar: Starting to rebound, but limited upward space due to supply surplus, and it is recommended to short at high prices [1]. - Corn: Bearish in the short - term due to increased supply and price pressure from deep - processing enterprises [1]. - Soybean Meal: Sideways, with weak short - term market sentiment, and it is recommended to observe carefully [1]. - Pulp: The bottom range is initially showing, but there is no bullish driving force yet, and attention should be paid to the cancellation volume of warehouse receipts after September delivery [1]. - Logs: Fundamentals have no obvious changes, with falling foreign quotes and firm spot prices, and the futures are sideways [1]. - Live Pigs: Bearish as the supply continues to increase and downstream demand is limited [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Sideways, affected by factors such as US inventory, OPEC+ production increase, and Fed interest rate cuts [1]. - Asphalt: Bearish, with the falsification of demand expectations and sufficient supply of raw materials [1]. - Shanghai Rubber: Bullish in the short - term due to typhoon influence and reduced inventory [1]. - BR Rubber: Sideways, with attention to the capital side due to factors such as supply and demand and changes in warehouse receipts [1]. - PTA: Bearish, affected by factors such as production recovery, falling oil prices, and PX device maintenance delays [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Sideways, with a complex situation of supply and demand and the impact of new device production [1]. - Short - fiber: Sideways, affected by factors such as device recovery and changes in market delivery willingness [1]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: Bearish, with increasing supply and import pressure [1]. - Urea: Sideways, with limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand and support from anti -内卷 and cost [1]. - PP: Sideways, with weakening support from maintenance and less - than - expected downstream improvement [1]. - PVC: Sideways, with increased supply pressure and more near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - Caustic Soda: Bearish, with unfulfilled peak - season expectations and inventory accumulation [1]. - LPG: Bearish, affected by OPEC production increase, high domestic oil inventory, and weak chemical demand [1]. Others - Container Shipping to Europe: Sideways, with the possibility of a low - level rebound and expected to stop falling and stabilize [1].

Group 1: Downstream Consumption - The real estate market in major cities continues to improve, with the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increasing by 20.3% year-on-year, and the transaction area in first-tier cities rising by 68.8% [7][8] - Retail sales of passenger cars showed a slight increase of 1.0% year-on-year, with the price war in the car market easing, and air conditioning domestic sales increased by 1.2% year-on-year [9][11] - The service consumption index in Hainan increased by 1.3% month-on-month, and the box office revenue for movies surged by 364.6% month-on-month and 149.0% year-on-year [15][17] Group 2: Midstream Manufacturing - Construction demand has marginally improved, with the prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils increasing by 0.6% and 0.3% respectively, and the operating rate of blast furnaces at 84.0% [18][19] - Manufacturing operating rates have generally improved, with the operating rates for half-steel and full-steel tires at 73.7% and 65.7% respectively, showing a slight increase [28][30] Group 3: Upstream Resources - Coal prices have risen significantly, with the price of Q5500 thermal coal at 704 yuan per ton, up 3.5% week-on-week due to tight supply and increased pre-holiday stocking demand [38][41] - Industrial metal prices are under pressure, with copper and aluminum prices decreasing by 1.4% and 1.5% respectively, influenced by hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials [43][44] Group 4: Logistics and Passenger Flow - Long-distance passenger transport demand has improved, with domestic flight operations increasing by 0.5% week-on-week and 5.0% year-on-year [52][57] - The logistics sector has shown a recovery, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volume increasing by 1.9% and 0.2% respectively [58][59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and the futures market is slightly volatile. The current fundamentals have not changed significantly. The previous increase in the industrial silicon market was mainly due to capital behavior and news, but there is still pressure above. The market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote capacity exit, the market may have room to rise [3]. - The polysilicon supply - demand fundamentals are average. The market is currently affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality. Spot prices still have some support, but policy implementation is in progress, leading to large market fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, if the market corrects significantly, long positions can be considered [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On September 23, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,930 yuan/ton and closed at 8,925 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton (-2.30%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 273,696 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49,963 lots, an increase of 161 lots from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices were stable. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 8,900 - 9,100 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,900 - 9,100 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in various regions were slightly stable [1]. - The price of organic silicon DMC was 10,900 - 11,200 yuan/ton. Some monomer plants' pre - sales have been scheduled until the end of this month and early next month. Monomer plants' willingness to support prices has increased, but price increases face constraints. New orders have decreased, and downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing. The domestic DMC market price will remain stable in the short term [2]. Strategy - Short - term: conduct range operations. Medium - term: the valuation is low, and long positions can be considered for contracts during the dry season [3]. - There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On September 23, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 declined and then fluctuated. It opened at 50,900 yuan/ton and closed at 50,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.74% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 116,091 lots, and the trading volume was 296,108 lots [4]. - Polysilicon spot prices were stable. The price of N - type material was 50.30 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 50.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 20.40 (with a month - on - month change of - 6.80%), and silicon wafer inventory was 16.87GW (with a month - on - month change of 1.93%). Polysilicon weekly output was 31,000 tons (with a month - on - month change of - 0.50%), and silicon wafer output was 13.92GW (with a month - on - month change of 0.29%) [4][5]. - The center of the polysilicon transaction price moved slightly upward. The market was polarized. Resources below 52 yuan were more popular, while downstream acceptance of prices above 53 yuan was limited [5]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [5][6]. Strategy - Short - term: conduct range operations. - There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [9]. - In the medium - to - long - term, if the market corrects significantly, long positions can be considered [7].

Group 1: Market Outlook - The overall macro environment remains robust despite a slowdown in U.S. economic momentum, with limited risk of a significant recession [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut is expected to lead to three additional cuts this year, with short-term inflation pressures anticipated to be temporary [1] - The current environment supports diversified investment strategies while allowing for moderate market risk to prepare for potential global growth recovery next year [1] Group 2: Fixed Income Preferences - The yield curve is likely to steepen due to the Fed's rate cuts, with short-term rates declining while long-term rates may remain volatile due to concerns over the U.S. budget deficit [2] - Investment-grade corporate bonds are preferred due to their risk-return characteristics being similar to government bonds, with a focus on the UK and emerging markets for their attractive yields [2] - High-yield bond spreads are narrowing, necessitating a selective investment strategy despite strong fundamentals and corporate earnings [2] Group 3: Equity Market Insights - U.S. stock valuations are high, but the technology sector continues to show steady earnings growth, with cyclical sectors expected to outperform due to rate cut expectations [3] - European stocks have outperformed U.S. stocks this year, driven by valuation multiple re-evaluations, but may require a rebound in corporate earnings to sustain upward momentum [3] - The UK stock market presents attractive valuations, combining defensive sectors with cyclical sectors sensitive to economic changes [3] Group 4: Chinese Market Dynamics - The Chinese mainland and Hong Kong stock markets have shown strong recent performance, driven by a low interest rate environment encouraging local investors to shift towards equities [4] - Valuations in the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong markets remain attractive compared to global peers, with "anti-involution" policies expected to support corporate profit margins and earnings growth [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - In the second week of September, the butadiene rubber market experienced an overall decline due to intensified supply-demand conflicts and Mexico's tariffs on Chinese automotive products [1] - As of September 17, the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber in East China was 11,650 yuan per ton, a decrease of 70 yuan compared to early September, reflecting a decline of 0.60% [1] Group 2: Production Capacity - From January to August, China's butadiene rubber production exceeded 1.02 million tons, an increase of 210,000 tons year-on-year [2] - New production capacities are expected to be released in the second half of the year, particularly around October, which may increase market supply pressure [2] - Jilin Petrochemical's 50,000 tons/year butadiene rubber facility is scheduled to start production in mid to late October, potentially intensifying supply competition [2] Group 3: Demand Trends - The tire industry, which accounts for over 70% of butadiene rubber consumption, has seen significant profit declines, with some companies reporting profit drops exceeding 50% [4] - As of the end of August, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97%, a decrease of 0.90 percentage points month-on-month and 8.73 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Despite the traditional peak season, the tire industry is not performing well, with many companies maintaining regular production schedules and cautious purchasing behavior [4] Group 4: Cost Dynamics - The domestic butadiene market is expected to face oversupply in 2025, with an anticipated increase in production capacity of 930,000 tons [5] - The price decline of butadiene rubber futures has led to concerns about the pricing of styrene-butadiene rubber, further suppressing butadiene prices [5] - Butadiene accounts for 75% to 80% of the production cost of butadiene rubber, and its price decline significantly weakens cost support for butadiene rubber [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年9月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘反弹，站回20均线以上，20均线上下震荡运行。产业链上，镍矿价格坚挺，海运费受 煤炭价格上升也稳中有升。镍铁价格继续小幅上涨，成本线进一步上移，但总体镍铁企业仍然亏损。不 锈钢库存继续回落，金九银十去库存良好。新能源汽车产销数据良好，三元电池装车仍然呈现下降，对 镍需求提升有限。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货121950，基差1040，偏多 3、库存：LME库存230454，+1554，上交所仓单25464，-72，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向上，中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2511：20均线上下震荡运行。 利空： 1、金九 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-9-24 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润回落，行业冷修高位，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；下游深加工 订单整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1080元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1183元/吨，基差为-103元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6090.80万重量箱，较前一周减少1.10%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向上；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏空运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业存产能出清预期。 利空 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel industry, the "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has a suppressive effect on raw materials and supports steel prices, but it is less than the previous "anti - involution" hype expectations. The overall apparent demand in the consumption season is lower than expected, and the total inventory is still increasing. However, the downstream restocking demand before the National Day holiday may support spot prices [2]. - For the iron ore industry, the "anti - involution" policy has been implemented, which is less than expected and has a negative impact on raw materials. The profitability of sample steel mills has回调 last week. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and the port inventory has not changed significantly, but there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption season. The restocking demand of steel mills before the holiday supports the iron ore demand [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market News**: The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" was jointly issued by relevant departments, which has different impacts on raw materials and steel prices [2]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week, the output of rebar decreased for four consecutive weeks, the apparent demand rebounded, and the total inventory decreased. The total output of the five major varieties decreased by 1.8 tons week - on - week, the factory inventory decreased by 1.1 tons, the social inventory increased by 6.3 tons, and the total inventory increased by 5.2 tons. The apparent demand increased by 7.0 tons week - on - week, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils rose and then fell, indicating obvious resistance above [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and go long after the futures stabilize [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The "anti - involution" policy has been implemented, which is less than expected and has a negative impact on raw materials [4]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The profitability of sample steel mills has回调 last week due to the sharp increase in coke spot prices and the decline in steel prices. The iron ore shipment is at a high level globally, and the port inventory has not changed significantly, but there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption season. The restocking demand of steel mills before the holiday supports the iron ore demand [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: After the 01 contract broke through upwards, it oscillated and fell back. Whether the upward trend can continue remains to be seen [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, patiently wait for a full adjustment, and go long after other varieties stabilize. Be cautious about chasing up [4]. 3.3. Industry News - Indonesia has suspended 190 coal and mining licenses because they failed to fulfill the obligation to repair damaged mine land or comply with production quotas [6]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average daily customs clearance of the three major Mongolian coal ports has changed. The total average daily customs clearance in September is 2258 vehicles, equivalent to an import volume of about 31.26 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.90%. It is estimated that the 7 - day closure of the three major ports during the 2025 double - festival holiday will affect the Mongolian coal import volume by about 187.56 tons [6]. - On September 23, a large steel mill in Tangshan tendered for Mongolian 5 coking coal, with a winning bid price of 1400 yuan/ton to the factory, and all 7000 tons of the tender quantity were sold. The transaction price increased by 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous period on September 11 [7].