Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term expectation for the pig industry has weakened. The current north - south fat pig price spread is inverted, the sale of group piglets has decreased, and the pen pressure in May has slightly increased. The continuous price exceeding expectations has led to continued inventory accumulation, and the recent pressure of fat pig sales has initially confirmed the inventory accumulation. The official number of piglets confirms the stock, and the far - end expectation has weakened. For the 1 - month contract, due to liquidity issues, although it is a peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, the increase in positions is limited, causing the far - month price spread to deviate from the seasonal reasonable spread at present. One should wait for the opportunity of liquidity transfer, and continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread in the medium - to - long - term, paying attention to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 14,350 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 15,190 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year [3]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of pig 2507 is 13,405 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton year - on - year; the price of pig 2509 is 13,660 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton year - on - year; the price of pig 2511 is 13,420 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of pig 2507 is 5,531 lots, down 4,458 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 27,679 lots, up 95 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of pig 2509 is 28,345 lots, down 12,012 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 79,274 lots, up 1,713 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of pig 2511 is 5,399 lots, down 1,173 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 31,145 lots, up 868 lots from the previous day [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of pig 2507 is 1,445 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of pig 2509 is 1,190 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of pig 2511 is 1,430 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 7 - 9 spread of pigs is - 255 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 9 - 11 spread of pigs is 240 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with the range of values for trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. The classification of strength levels is as follows: weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [4]. 3.3 Market Logic - Currently, the north - south fat pig price spread is inverted, the sale of group piglets has decreased, and the pen pressure in May has slightly increased. The continuous price exceeding expectations has led to continued inventory accumulation, and the recent pressure of fat pig sales has initially confirmed the inventory accumulation. The official number of piglets confirms the stock, and the far - end expectation has weakened. The 1 - month contract is affected by liquidity. Although it is a peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, the increase in positions is limited, causing the far - month price spread to deviate from the seasonal reasonable spread at present. One should wait for the opportunity of liquidity transfer, and continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread in the medium - to - long - term, paying attention to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for corn and corn starch is "Bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the spot price of corn continued to oscillate strongly, while the futures price declined slightly due to weak basis, increased hedging pressure, and stronger auction expectations. The energy demand is expected to recover moderately, which will significantly exceed the decline in deep - processing demand. Corn spot prices are expected to continue to rise, and it is recommended to hold the existing 07 long positions, 7 - 9 positive spreads, and 7 - 11 positive spreads strategies [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Review 3.1.1 Corn - Analyzes the performance of corn's futures and spot prices, basis, spot price trends, and 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 month spreads [13][18][19] 3.1.2 Corn Starch - Examines the futures and spot prices, basis, the spread between starch and corn futures, the spot price spread in Weifang, and the by - product income compensation of corn starch [21][22][28] 3.2 Corn Fundamental Information Weekly Observation 3.2.1 Receipt and Auction of Reserves - Focuses on the corn auction and procurement information on the Sinograin online bidding platform [30][32] 3.2.2 Inventory - Covers the grain inventory, foreign - trade inventory, domestic - trade inventory in southern ports, and the inventory in northern ports of corn, as well as the corn inventory and consumption of major deep - processing enterprises [34][37][43] 3.2.3 Substitutes - Analyzes the price spread between wheat and corn and the theoretical substitution advantage spread of wheat for corn [50][51] 3.2.4 Demand - Considers the profitability of corn - to - ethanol production, the operating rate of corn alcohol, and the average weight of slaughtered pigs [53][54][56] 3.3 Corn Starch Fundamental Information Weekly Observation 3.3.1 Profitability - Analyzes the profitability and profit of corn starch enterprises [59][61] 3.3.2 Supply - Focuses on the operating rate and processing volume of corn starch enterprises [63][64] 3.3.3 Demand - Examines the operating rates of fructose syrup, maltose syrup, corrugated paper, and box - board paper in the starch sugar industry [67][69][70] 3.3.4 Inventory - Covers the available inventory and the seasonal trend of registered warehouse receipts of corn starch enterprises [73][74]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The index has stable support below and significant upward breakthrough pressure. The short - term Treasury bonds may fluctuate, and the precious metals market has entered a volatile phase. The shipping index's upward momentum may slow down, and the steel and coal markets are facing price adjustments. The agricultural products market is affected by various factors such as policies and supply - demand relationships [2][3]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: The index has stable support below and large upward breakthrough pressure. It is recommended to sell put options at the support level to earn premiums or go long on the September IM contract at low prices and sell call options with a strike price of 6400 in September for a covered strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term Treasury bonds may be in a volatile state. It is advisable to wait and see, focusing on the capital market and economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold has formed a "double - top" pattern and entered a volatile phase. Selling out - of - the - money gold call options can be held. Silver follows gold's fluctuations and has support at $32 (8000 yuan) [2]. Commodity Futures - **Shipping Index Futures**: The emotional release is sufficient, and the upward momentum may slow down. Consider positive spreads for 8 - 10 and 6 - 10 contracts and wait and see for unilateral operations [2]. - **Steel Futures**: The spot market is stabilizing, and there are macro - level benefits. It is recommended to consider long - hot - rolled coil and short - coke or short - coking coal strategies [2]. - **Coal Futures**: Coke prices have entered a new round of price cuts, and coking coal prices may be bottom - hunting. It is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coil and short on coke or coking coal [2]. - **Chemical Futures**: Different chemical products have different trends. For example, PX and PTA have strong supply - demand drivers but limited oil price support. Short - fiber prices follow raw materials, and ethylene glycol has strong short - term support [3]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Different agricultural products are affected by different factors. For example, soybeans are affected by biodiesel policies, and sugar is affected by Brazilian data [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Futures**: Different non - ferrous metals have different price ranges and trends. For example, copper has strong upward pressure, and tin rebounds due to improved macro - sentiment [5]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil is affected by the progress of the US - Iran nuclear negotiation, and the short - term market is in a weak and volatile state [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available Group 2: Core View of the Report - It is recommended to wait for a short - selling opportunity after the rebound of methanol MA2509. The reasons are that the bullish macro - sentiment is hard to last, the supply of inland coal - based methanol is recovering quickly, and the relative valuation of methanol is not low [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased from 2425 yuan/ton to 2388 yuan/ton, a 1.53% drop; MA05 fell from 2450 yuan/ton to 2400 yuan/ton, a 2.04% decline; MA09 dropped from 2365 yuan/ton to 2320 yuan/ton, a 1.90% decrease [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in different regions showed various changes. For example, the price in Taicang decreased by 3.70% from 2497.50 yuan/ton to 2405.00 yuan/ton, while the price in Shandong increased by 0.21% from 2375.00 yuan/ton to 2380.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA decreased from 72.50 yuan/ton to 17.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55.50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Coal Spot Prices**: The prices of Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 all decreased, with declines of 0.58%, 1.02%, and 0.99% respectively [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1]. 2. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: The profit of coal - based methanol remained at 504.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained at - 410.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Downstream Profit of Methanol**: The profits of Northwest MTO, East China MTO, and acetic acid increased by 36.14%, 38.96%, and 18.40% respectively. However, the profit of MTBE decreased by 9.44%, and the profit of formaldehyde increased by 4.41% [1]. 3. Information - **Domestic Futures Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 declined, opening at 2363 yuan/ton, closing at 2320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 802,959 lots and an open interest of 734,318 lots, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: Three methanol plants with a total capacity of 5.6 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are operating at a reduced load, and there are plans for other methanol plants in the Middle East to shut down for maintenance in mid - to - late May [1].

张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 123,600 | -1,630 | -30 | -120 | -640 | -950 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,995 | -85 | 290 | 325 | 135 | -165 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 137,729 | 1,166 | -6,749 | 8,515 | -4,620 | 48,085 | | | | 不锈钢主力（成交量） | 128,580 | -14,329 | 4,729 | 6,609 | 10,244 | 71,497 | | | | 1#进口镍 | 125,375 | 250 | 1,525 | 1,250 | 1,200 | 930 | | | | 俄镍升贴水 | 300 ...

Report Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Styrene: None, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - PTA: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Short - fiber: None, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Methanol: None, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Urea: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - PVC: ★☆★, suggesting a bullish drive but poor operability [1] - Caustic soda: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Glass: None, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Soda ash: None, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] Core Views - The chemical market shows different trends. Some products are affected by supply - demand changes, policy factors, and cost fluctuations. Overall, the market is complex, with some products in a weak or volatile state, while others may have short - term upward trends [2][3][7] Summary by Product Methanol - The methanol futures price fell slightly. Domestic device capacity utilization is high, many olefin devices are under maintenance, traditional downstream demand is weak, and production enterprises are destocking. Import volume is decreasing, and port inventory is significantly reduced. The market is expected to be weak and volatile due to increased supply and decreased demand [2] Urea - The urea futures price is oscillating, and the spot price is stable with a slight decline. The market's bullish sentiment has weakened after the self - regulatory export meeting. Production enterprises have significantly reduced inventory, and ports are accumulating inventory. Industrial and agricultural demand has limited impact on the market, and the market is expected to operate within a range under the influence of price - stabilizing policies [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures prices fluctuate narrowly. After a sharp rise, there is a need for technical adjustment. The market hype sentiment for polyethylene remains, and the prices of petrochemical and traders are rising. The willingness of downstream factories to accept high prices has weakened, and middlemen are waiting and watching [4] Styrene - The styrene futures price is consolidating narrowly. The planned shutdown of a cracking unit and early maintenance of styrene devices support the price, but the cost support is weakening after the decline of crude oil and pure benzene prices. The market direction is to be determined after filling the price gap [6] Polyester - Affected by the adjustment of oil prices, PX and PTA prices have fallen. The polyester industry's operating rate is rising, and downstream demand has improved. However, the cash flow of polyester filament enterprises is poor, and there are potential risks. The price of ethylene glycol has fallen, and the future supply is expected to be under pressure. The price of short - fiber has adjusted slightly, and the processing margin is still low. The production of bottle - grade polyester chips is increasing, and attention should be paid to the possibility of production cuts [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC spot prices continue to rise, and futures prices are strong. Tariff policy easing may improve exports, and supply pressure is relieved due to increased maintenance. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term. Caustic soda is oscillating strongly. Supply pressure in Shandong is relieved, and downstream demand is average. The profitability of chlor - alkali enterprises has recovered, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures prices are weak due to inventory accumulation and price reduction in the spot market. Inventory pressure is high, and downstream demand is still weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with costs. Soda ash supply has decreased after maintenance, but the industry is still slightly accumulating inventory. The futures price is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term. In the long term, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after a rebound [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the advantages of the Sina Finance APP for futures investors, highlighting its fast updates, reliable data, practical features, and user-friendly interface [1][2][4]. Group 1: Speed and Data Reliability - The Sina Finance APP provides rapid updates on market conditions, ensuring that investors do not miss critical opportunities [1]. - The data from the APP is directly connected to exchanges, offering precise price fluctuations, which enhances decision-making confidence [2]. Group 2: Practical Features - The APP includes customizable market alerts, allowing users to set notifications for specific price movements, acting like a personal assistant [3]. - It offers in-depth analysis articles from a professional editorial team, helping users understand market dynamics and macroeconomic influences [3]. - Users can personalize their experience by subscribing to specific futures products and creating tailored investment portfolios [3]. Group 3: User Experience - The interface of the Sina Finance APP is designed to be simple and intuitive, making it accessible for beginners [4]. - The APP is compatible with multiple devices, including smartphones, tablets, and computers, allowing users to monitor the market anytime and anywhere [4].

Group 1: Market Impact of Iran Negotiations - The U.S. is engaged in serious negotiations with Iran to achieve long-term peace, with Iran agreeing to some conditions, including a commitment to never develop nuclear weapons and allowing international oversight [1] - The announcement led to a significant drop in international oil prices, as the market anticipates a large influx of Iranian oil, resulting in oversupply [1] Group 2: Features of Sina Finance APP - Sina Finance APP provides ultra-fast market updates, ensuring investors receive the latest information in real-time, which is crucial for making timely investment decisions [2] - The APP is known for its high accuracy in presenting futures market data, with strict verification processes ensuring reliable data sources [3] - The platform offers in-depth analysis and research reports, helping investors understand market trends and make informed decisions based on macroeconomic conditions and policy impacts [4] - Personalized services are available, allowing investors to customize their experience by subscribing to specific futures and setting market alerts [4] - The APP includes intelligent trading alerts, notifying investors when market conditions meet their predefined criteria, thus aiding in decision-making [5] Group 3: Social Interaction and Community - The APP facilitates social interaction among investors, allowing them to share insights, experiences, and seek advice from more experienced traders, enhancing their investment knowledge [7]

| 尿素早评20250515: 逢低做多为主 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位 | 日度 | 5月14日 5月13日 | | | | 变化值 (绝对值) | 变化值 (相对值) | | UR01 UR05 山东 期现价格 山西 | 房素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1814.00 1900.00 1950.00 | 1798.00 1930.00 1970.00 | 16.00 -30.00 -20.00 | 0.89% -1.55% -1.02% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1886.00 | 1897.00 | -11.00 | -0.58% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | 元/吨 | | | | 1890.00 | 1890.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 河南 | | | 元/吨 | 1930.00 | 1930.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 河北 | (小顆粒) | | 元/吨 | 1950.00 | ...

| | | | | 甲醇日评20250515:等待反弹后的沽空机会 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 单位 | 2025/5/14 | 2025/5/13 | 变化值 (绝对值) | 变化值 (相对值) | | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2425.00 | 2354.00 | 71.00 | 3.02% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2450.00 | 2380.00 | 70.00 | 2.94% | | | (收盘价) | | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2365.00 | 2291.00 | 74.00 | 3.23% | | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2497.50 | 2432.50 | 65.00 | 2.67% | | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2375.00 | 2365.00 | 10.00 | 0.42% | | 期现价格 | | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2430.00 | 2385.00 | 45.00 | ...