前言 7月21日，美国财长贝森特在一档电视节目中公开喊话，要求中方在即将到来的第三轮中美谈判中答应两件事，否则将面临高达100%的二级关税。 除此之外，贝森特还对欧盟各国施压，要求他们跟随美国一起行动，但换来的却是这些盟友无声的沉默。 那么贝森特要求的这两件事是什么？中方又是如何应对的？ 整个谈判的气氛是积极友好的，双方都希望通过合作来缓解贸易摩擦，为全球经济复苏贡献力量。 这些谈判不仅有助于推动中美关系的稳定，也对全球经济的稳定与发展起到了积极作用，即使双方存在不少分歧，双方也一直致力于通过平等、互利的方式 解决问题。 但现在贝森特的突然发难，无疑是在破坏这种谈判的良好气氛，他在谈判中将一个完全与双边贸易无关的问题——石油进口，提出作为中美谈判的前提条 件，这不仅让人觉得不合时宜，更像是一种不合理的干涉。 俄罗斯和伊朗作为主权国家，他们和中国之间的石油贸易是基于平等互利、相互尊重的原则进行的，完全符合国际法和国际准则，美国没有权利要求中国在 没有任何依据的情况下放弃这种正常的贸易往来。 贝森特的要求 7月21日，美国财政部长贝森特在一档电视节目中提出了两个让人难以理解的要求：要求中国在即将举行的第三轮中美谈 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical market is expected to experience volatile trends, with attention on policy variables and cost - side fluctuations. There is a divergence between crude oil and chemicals, as well as between futures and spot markets, making it difficult for the energy and chemical sector to have a clear - cut trend. [1][4] - Crude oil supply pressure persists, and geopolitical disturbances should be monitored. The strong reality of high refinery operations and the weak expectation of supply pressure are in a state of balance, leading to an oscillating oil price. [8] - Domestic chemical products have shown strong performance, especially coal and coal - chemical products with high self - sufficiency rates. However, the increase in chemical futures prices has not been followed by spot prices, and the basis of chemical products has weakened. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure remains, and geopolitical disturbances should be noted. The high refinery operations in domestic and foreign markets and the supply pressure are in a state of balance, resulting in an oscillating oil price. [8] - **LPG**: The support from the cost side is weakening, and the fundamental situation of ample supply remains unchanged. The PG futures may experience weak oscillations. [3] - **Asphalt**: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely over - valued stage. [3] - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil**: There is significant downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices. [3] - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillating and weakening trend of crude oil. [3] - **Methanol**: The operating load in the inland region remains low, and methanol prices will oscillate. [3] - **Urea**: Supply is strong while demand is weak. Although sentiment is temporarily boosted and exports support the market, urea prices will oscillate in the short term. [3] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventories have decreased, and the expectation of inventory accumulation has been postponed. [3] - **PX**: The downward space is limited, and it will seek a direction during oscillations. [3] - **PTA**: The driving force is limited, and it is affected by cost and macro - sentiment disturbances. [3] - **Short - fiber**: There are limited industrial contradictions. [3] - **Bottle Chip**: The increase in polymerization cost supports the valuation. [3] - **PP**: The expectation of stable growth boosts the market, and PP prices will oscillate. [3] - **Plastic**: The expectation of stable growth in the petrochemical industry provides a slight boost, and plastic prices will oscillate. [3] - **Pure Benzene**: The improvement of the balance sheet and positive commodity sentiment are expected to lead to a weak rebound. [3] - **Styrene**: The stable - growth plan boosts the market, and styrene prices will rise. [3] - **PVC**: Market sentiment has warmed up again, and a cautious and optimistic attitude is recommended. [3] - **Caustic Soda**: There is a strong expectation but weak reality, and caustic soda prices will experience a weak rebound. [3] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.78 with a change of - 0.1, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread being 60 with a change of 8. [36] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities. For example, the basis of asphalt is 198 with a change of 33, and the number of warehouse receipts is 82300. [37] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads also show different values and changes, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 354 with a change of - 62. [39] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The content mainly lists various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in a summarized way in the provided text. [40][52][63]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming third round of US-China trade negotiations will extend beyond economic issues to include China's oil purchases from Russia and Iran, highlighting deeper geopolitical and economic interests [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The US is not in a hurry to reach an agreement, emphasizing the importance of a "quality" deal rather than a rushed outcome, indicating a more cautious stance from the White House [1]. - Recent months have seen a slight easing in US-China relations, particularly in areas like rare earth exports and technology cooperation, but new demands are emerging as negotiations approach [1][3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - The US views China's oil purchases from Iran and Russia as contrary to its strategic interests, aiming to limit these transactions through trade agreements to maintain its global standing [3][5]. - Imposing such restrictions is seen as an infringement on China's sovereignty and a challenge to international trade norms, as China should have the freedom to choose its trading partners [3][5]. Group 3: Economic Considerations - The US's unilateral sanctions are deemed unacceptable under international law and could further deteriorate US-China relations, with domestic industrial interests also influencing these actions [5]. - China must remain calm and strategically firm in negotiations, defending its trade rights and leveraging its significant resources and consumer market as bargaining chips [5][7]. Group 4: Future Negotiation Dynamics - The upcoming negotiations will be a challenging game, with the US's request to limit China's oil imports from Russia and Iran affecting not only economic interests but also the international political landscape [7]. - Both parties need to find a balance that protects their interests while avoiding further conflict, as excessive pressure from the US may provoke a backlash from China [7].

Core Viewpoint - Hungary is taking proactive measures to secure its energy supply by collaborating with Serbia and Russia to construct a new oil pipeline, as EU sanctions on Russian energy have led to skyrocketing energy prices domestically [1][3]. Group 1: Pipeline Project Details - The new pipeline project involves an investment of €325 million for 180 kilometers in Hungary and €157 million for the Serbian section, aiming to transport 5 million tons of oil annually to support Serbia's Pančevo refinery and enhance Hungary's energy security [3]. - The urgency of the project is underscored by Hungary's financial losses of €20 billion over three years due to sanctions, prompting the need for alternative energy sources [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - The collaboration between Hungary and Serbia is seen as a strategic move to bypass EU sanctions, with Hungary asserting its "energy sovereignty" against EU directives [4]. - The project raises concerns among EU members, particularly as it deepens ties between Serbia and Russia, which could lead to further geopolitical tensions within Europe [4]. Group 3: Public Sentiment and Future Outlook - The Hungarian public is primarily concerned with maintaining affordable energy during winter, with assurances from officials that cheaper energy sources will be secured [4]. - The EU has set a deadline for complete abandonment of Russian oil and gas by the end of 2027, raising questions about whether Hungary's pipeline can be operational in time to meet this deadline [4].

Group 1 - The core of the transaction involves Li Ka-shing's decision to sell 43 overseas ports to BlackRock for 165.7 billion RMB, which raises questions about both commercial and national interests [1][3] - The involvement of China’s largest shipping company, COSCO Shipping, introduces new dynamics to the negotiation, emphasizing the importance of port control for national security and maritime strategy [3][6] - The transaction highlights the complex interplay between business competition and international politics, particularly regarding the significance of the Panama Canal and its implications for national sovereignty [4][6] Group 2 - BlackRock's acquisition strategy is seen as a means for the U.S. to enhance its influence in the global economy by controlling key port resources, which adds a layer of risk to the deal [3][6] - The negotiations have shifted towards a potential compromise involving COSCO Shipping, suggesting that collaboration may be more viable than confrontation in the current international environment [6][8] - The transaction underscores the blurred lines between national interests and corporate decisions, indicating that business choices can significantly impact diplomatic relations [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Fidelity Enjoy Dividend Preferred Mixed A Fund (020493) reported a profit of 4.8742 million yuan for Q2 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0651 yuan. The fund's net value growth rate was 7.25%, and the fund size reached 49.2887 million yuan by the end of Q2 2025 [3][14]. Fund Performance - As of July 21, the unit net value was 1.133 yuan. The fund's three-month, six-month, and one-year net value growth rates were 19.03%, 17.96%, and 18.19%, respectively, ranking 87/607, 119/607, and 344/602 among comparable funds [3]. - The fund's Sharpe ratio since inception was 0.6855 as of June 27 [7]. - The maximum drawdown since inception was 11.11%, with the largest quarterly drawdown occurring in Q2 2025 at 10.13% [10]. Investment Strategy - The fund management remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of the equity market and plans to closely monitor individual stock fundamentals and earnings as listed companies begin to disclose their semi-annual reports. The management also anticipates short-term market volatility due to increasing geopolitical uncertainties [3]. - The fund's average stock position since inception was 77.96%, compared to the industry average of 85.36%. The fund reached a maximum stock position of 92.19% by the end of 2024 and a minimum of 52.12% by mid-2024 [13]. Top Holdings - As of the end of Q2 2025, the fund's top ten holdings included China Construction Bank, Yutong Bus, Jiangsu Bank, Placo New Materials, Satellite Chemical, Minsheng Bank, Sinopec Crown, China Merchants Bank, China Shenhua, and Milkyway [17].

欧盟最后一退，特朗普加码15%关税！德高官怒吼：要战便战 当欧盟贸易专员谢夫乔维奇结束六赴华盛顿的谈判，带回美国接受10%基准关税的乐观预期时，布鲁塞 尔的官员们以为终于躲过了贸易战的子弹。然而仅仅一周后，白宫传来的新条件如一盆冷水：特朗普要 求欧盟接受15%甚至更高的基准关税，否则8月1日起全面启动30%关税。 "所有选项都摆在桌面上。"一位德国官员面对《华尔街日报》的镜头语气冰冷，"如果他们想要战争， 他们会得偿所愿。" 步步紧逼：10%的妥协如何喂大了特朗普的胃口 四个月来，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩的"谈判策略"已成固定剧本：先强硬表态，再火速让步。7月，她 刚宣称"必将采取一切必要反制"，却在24小时内突然推迟了价值210亿欧元的对美报复性关税，姿态柔 软得令人咋舌。 欧盟的妥协清单曾显得诚意十足： - 承诺采购数百亿美元美国能源与半导体 - 在汽车关税上主动提出"归零方案"（只要美国降至20%，欧盟就取消美国汽车10%关税） - 德国车企甚至设计出复杂的"出口抵进口"机制换取豁免 汽车产业是德国的生死线：2023年欧盟对美汽车出口额高达580亿美元，支撑着1400万个就业岗位。大 众、宝马等巨头已发出 ...

这种沉默并非源于西方媒体的转变或莫迪政府的妥协，而是深刻的双重甚至三重尴尬的体现。 西方沉默背后的双重尴尬：技术实力与能源困局 回顾过往，西方媒体对中国的三峡工程和青藏铁路，曾冠以"生态炸弹"、"人权污点"等诸多负面标签，质疑中国的技术实力，渲染其可能造成的生态破坏。 然而，面对雅鲁藏布江水电工程，美联社、路透社等主流媒体却仅以轻描淡写的口吻报道其规模，对潜在的政治博弈和环境影响只字不提。 这种转变，并非因为西方媒体改变了立场，而是中国水电技术实力的飞速发展，以及西方自身深陷能源危机的窘境所造成的。白鹤滩水电站攻克百万千瓦机 组技术，港珠澳大桥的建成创造了跨海奇迹，而雅鲁藏布江项目的"截弯取直，隧洞引水"方案，更是巧妙地规避了对生态环境的潜在破坏，连瑞士专家都不 得不承认中国在高海拔复杂地质领域的国际领先地位。 与此同时，欧洲正为天然气短缺而焦头烂额，美国页岩油开采的环保问题也持续受到诟病。在全球竞相实现碳中和目标的大背景下，中国水电装机量已占全 球近三成，这使得西方国家难以再以环保为由对中国进行指责。美国在科罗拉多河修建30座大坝，导致墨西哥河床干裂，却从未为此道歉，如今却反过来指 责中国"破坏跨境河流"， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the oil price will show a volatile trend [3]. Core View - Supported by the expectation of the consumption peak season, the oil price will maintain a relatively strong oscillation. Geopolitical factors in the short - term are positive, while macro - financial factors are negative. In the medium - to - long - term, supply and demand still have a loosening trend, and the price center will move down [3]. Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global crude oil production. EIA predicts that the global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 will be 10,460 million barrels per day, an increase of 180 million barrels per day compared to 2024. In June 2025, OPEC's production increased by 21.9 - 42 million barrels per day compared to May, and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production also increased [3]. - **Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different outlooks on demand. EIA expects the global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 to be 10,354 million barrels per day, an increase of 80 million barrels per day compared to 2024. IEA continues to lower the demand growth rate forecast [3]. - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: As of the week ending July 11, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a decline of 0.91%. There were also changes in refined oil and gasoline inventories [3]. - **Oil - Producing Countries' Policies (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: OPEC plans to increase production by 55 million barrels per day in September and then start a new round of production increase of 166 million barrels per day. UAE aims to reach a production capacity of 5 million barrels per day in 2027 [3]. - **Geopolitical Factors (Short - Term)**: The EU has reached an agreement on the 18th sanctions package against Russia, and Trump has put forward requirements for Russia to end the war in Ukraine. These measures may affect Russia's oil exports [3]. - **Macro - Financial Factors (Short - Term)**: Trump is promoting the collection of at least 15% - 20% tariffs in agreements with the EU, which may have a negative impact on the oil market [3]. - **Investment View**: In the short term, supported by the consumption peak - season expectation, the market shows a relatively strong oscillation. In the medium - to - long - term, supply and demand tend to be loose, and the price center will move down [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, sell on rallies. For arbitrage, go long on SC2509 and short on SC2510 [3]. Part Two: Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: Supported by the expectation of the consumption peak season and the impact of sanctions on Russia, international oil prices maintained a relatively strong oscillation. As of July 18, WTI crude oil rose by 2.25 US dollars per barrel (+3.38%), Brent crude oil rose by 2.12 US dollars per barrel (+3.09%), and SC crude oil rose by 10.4 yuan per barrel (+2.07%) [6]. - **Month - Spread and Internal - External Spread**: The month - spread strengthened, while the internal - external spread weakened [8]. - **Forward Curve**: The near - end performance was relatively strong [20]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of gasoline and diesel declined, while the crack spread of aviation kerosene was stable [23][33]. Part Three: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: In June 2025, OPEC's production increased, and non - OPEC countries' production also increased. US weekly crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels per day, with a slight decrease in the week ending July 11 [53][79]. - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, while Cushing inventories increased. Northwest European crude oil inventories rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventories declined [80][89]. - **Demand**: In the US, gasoline implied demand decreased, and refinery operating rates remained high. In China, the capacity utilization rate of independent refineries increased, and the capacity utilization rate of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units rebounded [106][115]. - **Macro - Financial**: The US dollar index rebounded, and US Treasury yields increased [137]. - **CFTC Position**: The speculative long positions in WTI crude oil decreased [147].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is at a strategic crossroads, with its deepening layout in the U.S. potentially altering its governance logic, balancing security and commercial interests as a future challenge [3][4]. Group 1: TSMC's Transformation - TSMC is entering an unprecedented transformation period, marked by its announcement of large-scale manufacturing facilities in the U.S. [4]. - The company's key deployments in wafer manufacturing, packaging testing, and R&D are driving it towards a deeper "Americanization" [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The influence of geopolitical factors on high-end manufacturing is becoming increasingly significant, with TSMC's U.S. layout appearing as a policy-driven collaboration plan [4]. - Amid rising global tech competition and supply chain security becoming a priority for governments, TSMC's expansion in the U.S. may play a crucial role in maintaining the U.S.'s leading position in the global semiconductor industry and reviving its manufacturing sector [4].