点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 2020年以来，装配式建筑行业标准趋于完善，为规模化、产业化奠定基础 2020年以来，住建部出台 《装配式住宅设计选型标准》等多份政策文件，涉及预制 PC、装配式钢结构、 装配式装修等领域；官方出台的设计规范文件为装配式建筑的设计、生产、施工、装修等环节提供了参考 标准，有助于推动装配式建筑生产标准化、规模化。未来随着装配式建筑规范化程度日趋完善，规模化带 动建筑预制成本逐步下降，装配式建筑有望推广至更大应用范围，行业空间或持续扩容。 钢铁行业供给侧改革加速，或助力钢结构业务盈利能力回升 3月20日，中信特钢董事长钱刚在该公司业绩说明会上透露，国内钢铁行业正在筹划成立相关基金，建立 落后钢铁产能退出的补偿机制，"从去年下半年开 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, with a current stock price of 24.75 CNY [1][3]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 91.03 billion CNY for 2024, a year-on-year decline of 35.5%, and a net profit of 7.70 billion CNY, down 26.2% from the previous year. A cash dividend of 0.71 CNY per share (including tax) is proposed [3][4]. - The cement industry is expected to recover in the fourth quarter, with improved profitability driven by price increases and production coordination among leading companies [6][7]. - The company plans to increase its capital expenditure to 156.2 billion CNY in 2024, focusing on expanding its aggregate and ready-mixed concrete production capacity [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 91,030 million CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 35.4%. Net profit is expected to be 7,696 million CNY, down 26.2% [5][9]. - The gross margin is forecasted to improve to 21.7% in 2024, with a net margin of 8.5% [9]. Production and Capacity - The company plans to increase its clinker capacity by 2.3 million tons and cement capacity by 8 million tons, alongside significant expansions in aggregate and ready-mixed concrete production [6][7]. Cash Flow and Dividends - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 18.39 billion CNY for 2024, with a cash balance of 70.23 billion CNY at year-end [10]. - A dividend payout of 37.5 billion CNY is planned for 2024, representing 48.68% of net profit [7]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in cement demand post-Spring Festival, with potential price increases in the Yangtze River Delta region [6][7]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the cement industry, with strong cost control and attractive valuation metrics [7].

实际上，在政策鼓励叠加行业高质量发展的背景下，以"湘财股份+大智慧""国泰君安+海通证券"等 为代表的多起券商并购重组案例今年以来不断涌现。 中航证券预计，随着行业并购重组案例逐渐增多，行业集中度也有望随之提升，头尾部券商分化将加 剧，行业"头部券商+中小特色券商"格局逐渐明朗。 01 从"被吞并"到"主动整合" 文/李悦 湘财股份与大智慧的十年并购博弈，在角色反转中迈入新阶段。 3月17日，湘财股份与大智慧双双停牌，双方公告宣布筹划重大资产重组：湘财股份拟通过向大智慧 全体A股股东发行股份的方式，换股吸收合并大智慧。 这是继2015年大智慧收购湘财股份旗下湘财证券未果后，双方时隔十年的又一次绑定尝试。 十年间，未能拿下湘财股份的大智慧，手握流量却错失转型机遇，陷入增长瓶颈；而湘财股份同样未 成功借力互联网，在券商数字化转型浪潮中逐渐被边缘化。 此次"牌照+流量"的联姻，既是十年恩 怨的了结，也被看做两个行业失意者的抱团取暖。 3月16日晚间，湘财股份公告称与大智慧签署了《吸收合并意向协议》，湘财股份拟通过向大智慧全 体A 股换股股东发行A股股票的方式换股吸收合并大智慧，同时拟发行 A 股股票募集配套资金。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report aims to analyze the pressure of supply-side reform quantitatively by constructing a dynamic indicator, the Profit Pressure Index, which can explain the supply-side reform at the end of 2015 and observe various industry conditions [2][4]. Group 1: Indicator Requirements - The indicator must meet two requirements: first, it should be a local peak in 2015, ideally the highest since 2000, or at least since 2011; second, it should reflect significant pressure in industries like coal, steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals in 2015 [4][14]. Group 2: Profit Pressure Index Construction - The Profit Pressure Index for an industry is calculated as the absolute value of the losses of loss-making companies divided by the sum of the absolute losses and profits of all companies in that industry. The index ranges from 0 to 1, with higher values indicating greater pressure [5][16]. Group 3: Indicator Validation - In 2015, the industrial enterprise profit pressure index was 15%, the highest since 2011 and second only to 2008, confirming it as a suitable point for supply-side reform [6][17]. - The analysis of various industries in 2015 showed that the highest profit pressure indices were in black metal smelting, non-ferrous metal smelting, and coal mining, indicating these were the most pressured sectors [7][18]. Group 4: Current Supply-Side Reform Pressure Measurement - The overall profit pressure index for A-share industrial enterprises rose to 6.7% in the first three quarters of 2024, still below the 10.5% recorded in the same period of 2015 [10][20]. - Key industries currently under pressure include power equipment, structural materials, common steel, and coal chemical industries, with the power equipment sector showing the highest profit pressure index since 2000 [11][21].

证 券 研 究 报 告 钢铁行业周报（20250310-20250314） 2025 年持续实施粗钢产量调控，推动钢铁产 推荐（维持） 业减量重组 ❑ 行业观点：需求回升钢价窄幅震荡，悲观预期仍需修正 事件一：截至 3 月 14 日，五大品种螺纹钢、线材、热轧、冷轧、中板价格分 别报收 3402 元/吨、3718 元/吨、3425 元/吨、4103 元/吨、3504 元/吨，周环比 分别变化-0.20%、-0.06%、+1.04%、-0.09%、+0.73%。本周五大品种产量 853.21 万吨，周环比增加 18.93 万吨。247 家钢铁企业日均铁水 230.59 万吨，周环比 增加 0.08 万吨，高炉产能利用率 86.57%，高炉开工率 80.58%，周环比分别增 加 0.03 个百分点和 1.07 个百分点。短流程企业，电炉产能利用率 53.49%，电 炉开工率 69.96%，较上周环比上升 1.4 个百分点和 3.03 个百分点。库存方面， 本周钢材总库存 1829.62 万吨，周环比下降 30.67 万吨。其中社会库存环比下 降 19.63 万吨至 1319.91 万吨；钢厂库存环比下降 11.0 ...

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Investment Rating - The report rates the investment in CICC as favorable due to its current undervaluation and potential for growth in the upcoming IPO market and M&A activities [3][4]. Core Insights - CICC's H-shares have risen approximately 25% since the beginning of the year, yet the price-to-book ratio (PB) remains at 0.76, indicating a discount to net assets [3]. - The brokerage industry has a lower leverage ratio (4-5 times) compared to banks (over 10 times), suggesting lower operational risks and a more transparent balance sheet [3][4]. - The Hong Kong market is experiencing increased investment activity, with a projected 80% year-on-year increase in IPOs in 2025, which will positively impact CICC's performance [4][5]. - Anticipated supply-side reforms and M&A activities are expected to enhance operational efficiency among leading brokerages, including CICC [4][6]. - The domestic IPO market is expected to recover in 2025, with an estimated 150 IPOs and a total scale of around 1 trillion yuan, leading to a 23% increase in underwriting fees and a 3.2% revenue increase for CICC [5][6]. - New regulations will stabilize underwriting fees, supporting the recovery of investment banking revenues for CICC [5]. - The H-share market is expected to expand, with a projected 89% increase in IPOs in 2024, benefiting CICC, which has ranked first in H-share trading for five consecutive years [6]. - CICC's M&A business, which accounts for 33.4% of its revenue, is anticipated to grow further due to favorable regulatory changes [6][7]. Summary by Sections Investment Outlook - CICC is positioned as a left-side investment opportunity due to its low valuation and performance elasticity, benefiting from industry reforms [4]. IPO Market - The expected recovery in the domestic IPO market will enhance CICC's revenue and profit margins, with a projected 5% profit growth [5]. H-share Market and M&A - CICC is set to benefit significantly from the H-share market expansion and the growth of its M&A business, supported by new regulatory frameworks [6][7]. Fee Structure - The report notes that the fee structure for investment banking services is not standardized, with significant variations based on company qualifications, but new regulations are expected to provide a more stable income environment [9].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Chinese economy** and its macroeconomic trends for **2025**. Core Insights and Arguments - **Shift from Demand to Supply**: The macroeconomic trend for 2025 will transition from demand-driven to supply-driven, with key areas of focus being the recovery of consumer supply, expansion of service sector investment, and optimization of real estate inventory policies, which are expected to release pent-up demand and excess savings [3][4][20]. - **Impact of Weak External Demand**: Weak external demand will significantly affect Chinese exports, with developed countries' import growth slowing down. Even if the U.S. economy remains resilient, Chinese exports will face downward pressure [5][20]. - **Manufacturing Investment Risks**: Manufacturing investment is expected to decline in 2025 due to a weakening natural renewal cycle and limited impact from equipment renewal policies, posing a potential drag on the economy [6][20]. - **Real Estate Market Adjustments**: The primary issues in the real estate market stem from supply-side policy adjustments and completion risks, which lead to deferred demand. Optimizing inventory policies and controlling residential increments can stabilize housing prices and release pent-up demand [8][11][20]. - **Service Sector Investment**: The government aims to expand service sector investment to alleviate supply constraints on service consumption, which has been declining. This is a response to the imbalance between goods and services consumption [10][12][20]. - **Fiscal Policy Adjustments**: The fiscal policy for 2025 is expected to be more proactive, focusing on expanding financing to support key areas such as science and technology, debt servicing, and national defense, while also emphasizing consumer and livelihood protection [3][20][28]. Additional Important Content - **Excess Savings**: There is a significant amount of excess savings (approximately 13 trillion yuan) accumulated by residents over the past four years, which is expected to gradually support domestic demand [7][20]. - **Service Consumption Recovery**: Service consumption is showing signs of recovery, with increased fixed asset investment in the accommodation and catering sectors, indicating a potential rebound in service demand [18][20]. - **Regional Consumption Dynamics**: The central and western regions of China are becoming important consumption destinations due to improved infrastructure and rising disposable incomes, which support cross-regional consumption [19][20]. - **Government Support for Vulnerable Groups**: The government has implemented measures to support vulnerable groups, including increased unemployment benefits and social assistance, to prevent further declines in consumer confidence [33][20]. - **Long-term Institutional Reforms**: The government is focusing on long-term reforms to enhance social security and support for the elderly and children, which will have a significant impact on consumption patterns in the future [41][45][20]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the Chinese economy's outlook for 2025, highlighting the transition in macroeconomic drivers, potential risks, and government policy responses.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the Chinese technology sector and its performance in the global market, particularly in relation to the impact of U.S. policies and the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. [1][3][13] Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Performance**: In 2025, U.S. dollar assets have underperformed, while Chinese tech stocks have led global gains, influenced by changes in U.S. policies and the AI technology cycle. [1][3] 2. **U.S. Economic Outlook**: The "Trump 2.0" policy may lead to downward revisions in U.S. economic growth expectations, with tariff risks potentially impacting market sentiment. [1][6] 3. **Technology Cycle Impact**: The technology cycle enhances labor productivity, benefiting tech growth stocks the most. The introduction of the Deep Sick policy has accelerated the Chinese tech industry cycle, contributing to the rise of Chinese tech stocks. [1][4][13] 4. **Valuation and Foreign Investment**: Despite recent gains, Chinese stock market valuations and foreign investment ratios remain low, with significant policy support signals. However, U.S.-China tariff threats could temporarily harm risk appetite. [1][14] 5. **Hong Kong Market Dynamics**: The Hong Kong stock market shows better liquidity and is undervalued before a potential rally, benefiting from a trend of capital flowing southward. The Hang Seng Tech Index represents leading Chinese tech firms and has significant upside potential. [1][17] Additional Important Insights 1. **Global Asset Allocation Logic**: The core logic for global asset allocation in 2025 revolves around the geopolitical changes brought by "Trump 2.0" and the development trends in the AI industry. [2] 2. **Government Policy Focus**: The primary goal of the government in 2025 is to boost consumption and investment, with a focus on domestic demand-driven industries and strategic emerging sectors like AI and low-altitude economy. [4][30] 3. **Future Asset Allocation Recommendations**: Investors are advised to monitor the U.S. dollar's performance, as it is a crucial anchor for asset pricing. The recent decline in the dollar index has led to underperformance of dollar assets compared to non-dollar assets. [5] 4. **Debt Market Outlook**: U.S. Treasury yields reflect recession expectations, with potential for further declines in the short term, although long-term trends may not be downward. [7][8] 5. **Investment Opportunities in AI**: The AI industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with significant investment opportunities in application sectors like humanoid robots and low-altitude related fields. [4][37] 6. **Chinese Stock Market Valuation**: Despite recent increases, the valuation of the Chinese stock market remains relatively low from a global perspective, indicating potential for upward adjustments as domestic economic conditions improve. [14][16] 7. **Sector-Specific Insights**: The healthcare sector is highlighted as being significantly undervalued, with potential for recovery as market conditions stabilize. [44][45] Conclusion The conference call emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments, particularly U.S. policies, and the ongoing evolution of the AI sector as critical factors influencing investment strategies in the Chinese market and beyond. The insights provided suggest a cautious yet optimistic outlook for specific sectors, particularly technology and healthcare, as they navigate the current economic landscape.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily focuses on the **basic materials industry**, particularly **coal, steel, cement, and iron ore** [1][7]. - There is a consensus that the **demand outlook** for basic materials is not expected to change significantly this year, with attention on **supply-side changes** [1]. Key Points on Coal Industry - The coal sector is anticipated to experience a new round of **supply-side reforms**, although the likelihood of significant changes is lower compared to steel and cement [1]. - Historical context from the **2016-2017 supply-side reforms** is referenced, highlighting the weak demand for electricity coal due to declining real estate construction and poor performance in downstream sectors [2]. - The **elasticity of electricity demand** has improved in recent years, driven by emerging industries such as **renewable energy, AI, and big data**, leading to higher coal prices [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In the initial phase of the 2016 reforms, coal production capacity utilization was around **60%**, with total capacity at **5.7 billion tons** and actual production at approximately **3.75 billion tons** [3]. - The coal workforce decreased from **4.4 million** to below **3 million** due to reforms, indicating effective personnel management [3][5]. - Current coal supply is described as **relatively loose**, with recent price declines attributed to local government interventions encouraging increased production after a **3.5% year-on-year drop** in output last year [5][6]. Current Market Conditions - The coal industry is currently facing a **high production capacity utilization rate** of around **86-87%**, but is experiencing a seasonal demand weakness due to a warm winter [6]. - The industry is under pressure to balance **production, cost, and safety**, with concerns that maintaining high output could lead to safety incidents [6][7]. - The expectation is that the coal sector will remain stable in the near term, with potential investment opportunities arising from current low prices [7]. Future Outlook - The potential for further supply-side reforms in the coal industry is limited due to the low levels of new capacity additions in recent years, averaging less than **50 million tons** annually compared to **80 million tons** previously [7]. - The overall sentiment is that the coal industry is in a favorable operational phase, with opportunities for profitability in the coming year [7]. Additional Insights - The team conducted field research in **South America** regarding various minerals, including **copper, iron ore, and lithium**, which will be shared in future discussions [8].