Group 1: Policy Background and Market Dynamics - The central government emphasizes the importance of anti-involution policies to eliminate low-price and disorderly competition among enterprises, aiming to enhance the international influence of high-end manufacturing [1] - The shift from a liquidity-driven bull market to a physical re-inflation and anti-involution bull market indicates a change in market dynamics, with future PPI potentially rising, suggesting a focus on corporate profits and inflation recovery [1] Group 2: Market Stability and Investment Trends - Stabilizing the stock and real estate markets is crucial for improving residents' asset-liability balance, with a noticeable trend of residents converting savings into financial and physical investments as the stock market stabilizes [2] - Improved corporate cash flow and the activation of M1 provide liquidity support, laying the foundation for price recovery [2] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Sector Focus - In an environment of rising inflation expectations, the anti-leverage allocation strategy becomes increasingly important, favoring large-cap stocks over small-cap stocks and growth stocks over value stocks [3] - Cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and consumer goods are benefiting significantly from the implementation of anti-involution policies, with notable increases in ETF holdings in these areas [3] - Investors should focus on cyclical industries like non-ferrous metals, steel, chemicals, and consumer goods, which are expected to benefit from improved supply-demand relationships under the anti-involution policy [4] - The technology sector, particularly in AI breakthroughs and US-China tech competition, presents significant investment opportunities, especially in consumer electronics and optical electronics with strong global competitive advantages [4]

Group 1 - The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China has been operating at a low level this year, with a core CPI increase of 0.9% year-on-year in August, driven by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting reasonable price recovery [1] - The report emphasizes the need for a coordinated macro policy system to achieve price stability, suggesting a combination of fiscal, monetary, industrial, and regulatory policies [2] - The report recommends setting a long-term average inflation target of 2% for CPI growth, aligning with global standards for price stability and reflecting China's transition from an industrial to a consumer economy [1][2] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy has shown initial effectiveness, becoming a key measure for structural adjustment in the Chinese economy, with expectations for policy continuity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2] - Structural reforms in income distribution, social security, and the establishment of a unified market are proposed to release institutional dividends and enhance consumer expectations [3] - The report highlights the importance of aligning macro policies with reform plans to create a cohesive policy framework that supports market and price stability [3]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery prices in Shanghai are set to increase starting September 22, 2025, as part of a broader industry effort to combat "involution" and stabilize market conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Major express companies including "Shunfeng, YTO, ZTO, and JD" have announced price increases in Shanghai, following similar trends in Guangdong and Zhejiang [1]. - The price increase in Shanghai is expected to be modest, with previous adjustments in Guangdong seeing increases of 0.4 to 0.5 yuan, raising the average price to over 1.4 yuan [1][3]. - The adjustments are primarily aimed at low-priced e-commerce shipments, with minimal impact on personal delivery services [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Context - The express delivery industry has been experiencing intense price wars, leading to increased workloads for frontline staff without corresponding wage increases [2][6]. - The ongoing price competition has resulted in a disconnect between prices and costs, prompting regulatory bodies to intervene and promote price stabilization [4][6]. - The "反内卷" (anti-involution) policy has been emphasized by the State Post Bureau to curb unhealthy competition and improve service quality [4][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Companies are optimistic about the potential for price recovery and improved profitability as the anti-involution measures take effect across more regions [5][6]. - The industry is expected to shift towards value competition rather than price competition, with a focus on service upgrades and operational efficiency [6][7]. - Experts suggest that if price competition continues to escalate, it may lead to industry-wide interventions to ensure sustainability [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the positive outlook for Asian markets, particularly China, driven by expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a favorable liquidity environment, which supports stock market performance [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs' chief strategists emphasize that the recent Federal Reserve rate cuts and the depreciation of the US dollar are beneficial for stock markets, especially in Asia [4][5]. - The firm has overweight positions in Chinese, Korean, and Japanese markets, focusing on technology and cyclical sectors [4][5]. - The current market sentiment in China is improving but has not reached the speculative levels seen in 2015 and 2021, indicating further potential for growth [4][6][8]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Goldman Sachs expects global funds to flow into Asian markets, particularly China, due to the anticipated rate cuts and a favorable economic environment [5][6]. - The firm maintains a balanced asset allocation strategy globally, favoring stocks over cash in the long term while recommending a short-term overweight in cash to manage potential market pullbacks [5][6]. - The firm highlights the importance of diversification across asset classes and regions in investment strategies [5]. Group 3: Chinese Market Analysis - The health of the current rally in the Chinese stock market is deemed better than historical levels, with a more balanced participation from institutional investors [7][8]. - Current valuations in the Chinese market are not overheated, with the MSCI China index median P/E ratio around 17 times, slightly above historical averages [7][8]. - Concerns about retail speculation are mitigated by the observation that the current margin balance, while higher than in 2015, is proportionally lower relative to the total market capitalization [7][8]. Group 4: International Investor Interest - There is a notable increase in interest from overseas long-term investors in non-US markets, particularly China, driven by high valuations in the US market [9][10]. - The emergence of innovative companies and supportive policies in China has significantly improved the fundamental outlook for Chinese tech firms, attracting more foreign investment [10]. - The focus of international investors is shifting from blue-chip stocks in Hong Kong to opportunities in A-shares, especially in sectors like robotics and AI [10].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "anti-involution" policy by the government is expected to improve the supply-demand dynamics in the paper industry, leading to price stabilization and enhanced profitability for companies in the sector [1][4]. Industry Summary - The paper industry is currently facing challenges such as overcapacity, price wars, and shrinking profits. However, the "anti-involution" policy aims to guide the industry towards better practices, as highlighted by the Guangdong Paper Association's initiative to resist chaotic low-price competition and optimize capacity structure [1][2]. - The supply of corrugated paper is expected to see a slight increase in the first half of 2025, with over 2 million tons of new boxboard paper capacity anticipated to be released in the second half, maintaining pressure on the supply side [2]. Company Summary - As of September 19, 2025, the company's stock price is 1.92 yuan, down 1.54% from the previous week, with a total market capitalization of 10.505 billion yuan, ranking 3rd in the paper sector [1]. - The company reported a comprehensive gross margin of 9.50% for the first half of 2025, an increase of 0.81 percentage points from 8.69% in the same period last year. The gross margin for the paper segment rose from 6.74% to 8.05%, attributed to lean production and cost reduction efforts [3][4]. - The company will not distribute profits or increase share capital due to a negative net profit for 2024. However, it plans to adhere to a shareholder return plan that mandates a cash dividend of no less than 30% of the annual net profit in the future [3][4]. - As of June 30, 2025, the company holds a total of 1,352 patents, including 148 invention patents, covering various fields such as paper making, environmental protection, and electrical control [3][4].

A-Share Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a volatile trend, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.34% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.14%, while the Shanghai Composite Index and the SSE 50 Index declined overall [5][6] - The average daily trading volume reached 2.52 trillion, reflecting an increase of 8.23% week-on-week [5] - The market's overall risk appetite remains high, driven by expectations surrounding the upcoming talks between Chinese and U.S. leaders, which are anticipated to enhance bilateral relations and economic cooperation [5][6] Hong Kong Market Analysis - The Hong Kong market showed an overall upward trend, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 5.09%, the Hang Seng Index increasing by 1.15%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 0.59% [7] - The consumer discretionary and information technology sectors performed well, while the financial sector faced declines [7] - The market is expected to continue its structural upward trend, supported by improving sentiment in the A-share market and ongoing discussions between Chinese and U.S. leaders [7]

9月19日，在高盛举办的媒体交流会上，高盛亚太区首席股票策略师慕天辉 （Timothy Moe）及首席中国股票策略师刘 劲津（Kinger Lau）阐述最新观点。 慕天辉认为，美联储降息及美元贬值的环境总体上对股市有利，尤其将支持亚洲市场表现。高盛超配中、韩、日三大市 场，侧重科技及周期性板块。 刘劲津则认为，从流动性驱动结构而言，本轮中国股票市场上涨的健康度优于历史水平，估值也仍未过高。当前市场情 绪虽改善，但远未达到2021年及2015年的投机水平。若经济增长及其他基本面因素持续改善，市场情绪仍有提升空间。 刘劲津还表示，当前，海外中长期投资者对非美市场兴趣浓厚，而中国凭借流动性优势和主题投资机会，在全球各市场 中排名靠前，尤其是机器人等领域国内生态体系全面完整，在欧美市场难以找到细分领域的优质标的。 全球资金有望进一步流入亚洲市场，超配中国股市 慕天辉表示，美联储近日降息25个基点符合预期，预计美联储将在今年十月和十二月会议上再各降息一次，并于明年三 月和六月分别进一步降息，最终使利率水平降至3%至3.25%。 "这一预期与市场共识基本一致。美联储降息及美元贬值的环境总体上对股市有利，尤其将支持亚洲市场 ...

Group 1 - The market's pricing expectations for "anti-involution" have strengthened since mid-September, leading to some recovery in the bond market, but significant adjustment pressure remains due to macro factors and limited buying power [1] - The current bond market adjustment since July differs from the one in the first quarter, as the central bank's liquidity tightening in Q1 forced financial institutions to reduce leverage, causing significant pressure on large banks' liabilities [3] - The yield curve of government bonds has shown a pronounced bear steepening characteristic in the current adjustment, with long bonds, especially ultra-long bonds, experiencing larger adjustments compared to the relatively stable performance of medium and short-term bonds [3] Group 2 - Since the third quarter, there has been a marginal improvement in the domestic economy, with easing U.S.-China trade tensions and a reduction in market risk aversion, but the "anti-involution" policy has created three negative effects on the bond market: supply contraction, rising prices, and increased risk appetite [5] - Recent trading pressures from funds have been significant, with a focus on selling ultra-long government bonds while buying short-term bonds, leading to a rapid decline in the duration of bond funds [5] - The performance of major institutions indicates a potential return of institutional buying power around the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields, but the sustainability of this trend remains to be observed [8]

邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 19 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 强预期支撑，煤焦高位震荡 核心观点 焦炭：截至 9 月 19 日当周，样本焦化厂和钢厂焦炭日均产量合计 113.37 万吨，周环比基本持平；全国 247 家钢厂铁水日均产量 241.02 万吨，周 环比小幅增加 0.47 万吨。库存方面，周内焦炭库存向下游转移，独立焦 化厂库存 66.41 万吨，周环比降 1.43 万吨；钢厂焦化厂焦炭库存 644.67 万吨，周环比增 11.38 万吨；总库存 915.18 万吨，周环比 8.94 万吨。 随着国庆长 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures prices of soda ash and glass both rose. Soda ash futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling. In the first half of the week, influenced by the news of soda ash production cuts, there was a significant upward movement. Subsequently, due to the digestion of the positive impact of the Fed's interest rate cut, market sentiment declined, and the futures price dropped. The trend of glass futures was the same as that of soda ash, with similar influencing factors [6]. - For soda ash, in the supply - side, the domestic soda ash operating rate and production decreased. In the long - term, with the "anti - involution" policy, some backward production capacities may be phased out, while the more environmentally friendly natural soda ash production capacity is rising steadily, with no obvious overall change in capacity. In the demand - side, the cold repair number of glass production lines remained unchanged, with overall production at a low level, showing obvious signs of rigid - demand production. The profit increased due to the rising spot price, and it is expected to remain at a low level next week. The demand from photovoltaic glass remained unchanged this week, but with the "anti - involution" process, the demand is expected to weaken. The inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises increased slightly this week, and the replenishment by traders continued but with reduced intensity. Overall, soda ash supply is expected to be loose, demand to decline slightly, and prices to remain under pressure, but there may be variables with "anti - involution" speculation. - For glass, in the supply - side, the situation is similar to that of soda ash's demand for glass, with production at a low level and profit increasing due to rising spot prices, expected to remain low next week. In the demand - side, the current real - estate situation is not optimistic. If the central bank cuts interest rates, it will support real - estate demand; otherwise, it will continue to drag down glass demand. The downstream deep - processing orders increased slightly, with purchases mainly for rigid demand. Although the inventory has started to accumulate again, the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged. If the central bank cuts interest rates next Monday, the market may grow again [6]. - The SA2601 contract is recommended to be traded in the range of 1,280 - 1,360, with stop - loss in the range of 1,240 - 1,380. The FG2601 contract is recommended to be operated in the range of 1,150 - 1,240, with stop - loss in the range of 1,130 - 1,260. Attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risks [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: This week, soda ash futures rose 2.17%, and glass futures rose 3.05%. Soda ash futures first rose and then fell. The first half - week increase was due to production cut news, and the subsequent decline was due to the digestion of the Fed's interest - rate cut positive. Glass futures had the same trend [6]. - **Market Outlook**: For soda ash, supply is expected to be loose, demand to decline slightly, and prices to remain under pressure but may change with "anti - involution" speculation. For glass, if the central bank cuts interest rates, it will support real - estate demand; otherwise, it will continue to drag down glass demand. The market may grow again if there is an interest - rate cut next Monday [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Trade SA2601 in the 1,280 - 1,360 range with a 1,240 - 1,380 stop - loss, and operate FG2601 in the 1,150 - 1,240 range with a 1,130 - 1,260 stop - loss [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: This week, soda ash and glass futures prices both rose [8]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot price of soda ash increased, and the basis strengthened. The spot price of glass also strengthened, and the basis increased, expected to further strengthen in the future. The soda ash - glass price difference weakened this week and is expected to strengthen next week [12][16][20]. - **Specific Data**: As of September 18, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1,215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12.5 yuan/ton, and the soda ash basis was - 89.5 yuan/ton. The price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1,084 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12 yuan/ton, and the glass basis was - 124 yuan/ton. The glass - soda ash price difference was 98 yuan/ton [14][18][22]. 3. Industry Chain Analysis - **Production and Operating Rate**: This week, the domestic soda ash operating rate and production decreased. As of September 18, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 85.78%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.35%, and the national weekly soda ash production was 74.57 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2%. The cold - repair number of glass production lines remained unchanged, and the overall production remained at a low level, with a slight expected increase next week [24][29][36]. - **Profit and Cost**: As of September 18, 2025, the theoretical profit of China's dual - ton soda ash by the combined - soda process was - 73 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost was 1,739 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 57 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of China's ammonia - soda process soda ash was - 80 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost was 1,320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 44 yuan/ton. The profit of glass enterprises increased mainly due to the strengthening of spot prices. It is expected that the soda ash production capacity will decline next week, and the glass production capacity will remain at a low level [31][34]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises increased slightly this week, and the replenishment by traders continued but with reduced intensity. The glass enterprise inventory decreased, and the de - stocking is expected to slow down next week. As of September 18, 2025, the soda ash enterprise inventory was 175.56 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.48%, and the total glass enterprise inventory was 60.908 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 1.09% [47][51]. - **Downstream Demand**: The deep - processing orders of domestic glass downstream increased slightly, but the demand remained low. As of September 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 10.5 days [53][55].