2025 年 6 月 20 日 工业硅、多晶硅：下行周期，需求为锚 张航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 报告导读： 安 期 货 研 究 所 2025 年至今，工业硅、多晶硅盘面价格相较年初已呈现出很大跌幅，但我们认为价格仍未到达底部。目前，双硅均 处于库存高企、成本塌陷以及需求崩塌的格局之下。从 2025 年 4 月份开始，盘面的交易逻辑已更多转向为需求定价， 即需求成色很大程度上决定了盘面的涨跌。此时，成本估值逻辑开始失效，虽上游工厂复产或不减产具备各种各样的原 因，但最直观的解读或许为价格并未跌至真正的成本线位置。站在 6 月中旬的时间点，无论是工业硅还是多晶硅工厂， 均有继续复产的预期，此会给到三季度供应端进一步的边际增量。而此时需求尚未见底，在此情形下出现因短期扰动带 来的反弹将会是很好的做空机会。也即，在需求并未见底的路径之下，价格难言底部，甚至极端行情之中很有可能会击 穿静态现金成本线位置。因此整体来看，在终端需求好转之前，我们对工业硅、多晶硅期货均维持空配的思路。 工业硅供需平衡角度，三季度供需过剩，四季度供需转紧平衡。三季度供需双增，但受限于终端 ...

2025年06月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：联储继续按兵不动 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：继续冲高 | 2 | | 铜：不确定增加，市场谨慎 | 4 | | 锌：上方偏承压 | 6 | | 铅：区间运行 | 7 | | 锡：紧现实弱预期 | 8 | | 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 | 10 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 20 日 黄金：联储继续按兵不动 白银：继续冲高 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵金属基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

行业 沥青日报 日期 2024 年 6 月 20 日 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌幅% | 成交量（万手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BU2509 | 3700 | 3738 | 3745 | 3689 | 1.49 | 29.87 | | BU2508 | 3718 | 3751 | 3760 | 3704 | 1.38 | 1.21 | 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For bonds, expect no trend - driven market and maintain caution [5]. - For stocks, be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and consider going long on stock index futures [7]. - For precious metals, the long - term bullish trend is expected to continue, and consider going long on gold futures [8]. - For steel products like rebar and hot - rolled coils, prices may continue to decline, and consider short - selling on rebounds [10]. - For iron ore, look for buying opportunities at low levels and set stop - loss [12]. - For coking coal and coke, consider short - selling on rebounds [14]. - For ferroalloys, the supply may exceed demand in the short term, and bulls should be cautious [16]. - For crude oil, prices are expected to rise in the short term [19]. - For fuel oil, consider going long on the main contract [22]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [23]. - For natural rubber, look for long - buying opportunities after the market stabilizes [26]. - For PVC, the mid - term low - level oscillation pattern remains unchanged [27]. - For urea, take a bullish view in the short term [30]. - For PX, consider cautious operations at low levels and pay attention to crude oil and the Middle - East situation [31]. - For PTA, consider going long at low levels and focus on the Middle - East situation [33]. - For ethylene glycol, take a cautiously bullish view and monitor port inventory and imports [34]. - For staple fiber, consider short - term long - buying at low levels and expanding processing margins [36]. - For bottle chips, consider cautious participation at low levels and expanding processing margins [37]. - For soda ash, the long - term oversupply situation persists, and avoid over - chasing short - term rebounds [39]. - For glass, the market sentiment is weak, and avoid over - chasing short - term rebounds [40]. - For caustic soda, the overall supply - demand is loose, and long - position holders should control their positions [42]. - For pulp, the market is under pressure, and the domestic chemical pulp market shows a weak upward trend [43]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand surplus persists, and prices are hard to reverse [46]. - For copper, consider going long on the main contract [48]. - For tin, prices are expected to oscillate [48]. - For nickel, prices are expected to oscillate [49]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, be cautious about soybean meal and consider exiting long positions on rallies for soybean oil [51]. - For palm oil, consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [53]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider going long on the oil - meal ratio [55]. - For cotton, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [58]. - For sugar, consider batch - buying [61]. - For apples, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [63]. - For live pigs, consider positive spreads for peak - season contracts [65]. - For eggs, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [66]. - For corn and starch, the corn market has support but faces pressure, and starch follows the corn market; adopt a wait - and - see strategy [68]. - For logs, beware of long - position sentiment disturbances [71]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Bonds - The previous trading day saw most bond futures close down. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is recommended to be cautious [5]. Stocks - Stock index futures showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Stock Exchange introduced an ESG action plan. Despite weak recovery momentum and tariff uncertainties, Chinese equity assets are still favored in the long run, and going long on stock index futures is considered [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver futures declined. Most central banks are expected to increase gold reserves, and the long - term bullish trend is expected to continue. Going long on gold futures is considered [8]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Futures prices showed weak oscillations. The real - estate downturn and over - capacity are suppressing prices. The market is in the off - season, and prices may continue to fall. Hot - rolled coils may follow the same trend [10]. Iron Ore - Futures prices showed weak oscillations. The decline in iron - water production and the increase in imports have weakened the supply - demand pattern. The price is at a relatively high valuation. Buying at low levels and setting stop - loss are recommended [12]. Coking Coal and Coke - Futures prices showed mixed performance. The market is in an oversupply situation. Coke production is decreasing, and prices may continue to decline. Short - selling on rebounds is considered [14]. Ferroalloys - Manganese and silicon ferroalloys rose slightly. Manganese ore shipments increased, and port inventory rebounded. Steel production declined, and ferroalloy supply may exceed demand in the short term [16]. Crude Oil - INE crude oil rose. Fund managers increased net long positions, and the number of oil and gas rigs decreased. Due to geopolitical risks, prices are expected to rise in the short term [18][19]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices rose strongly following crude oil. Affected by the Middle - East conflict, the market is uncertain. Going long on the main contract is considered [20][22]. Synthetic Rubber - The main contract rose. Supply pressure eased slightly, and the cost is expected to rebound, driving the market to stabilize and rebound. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate [23]. Natural Rubber - Futures prices rose slightly. Supply was affected by rain, and demand was weak. After the market stabilizes, look for long - buying opportunities [24][26]. PVC - The main contract rose. Supply increased, demand was weak, and it is in the off - season. The mid - term low - level oscillation pattern remains unchanged [27]. Urea - The main contract declined slightly. Supply is stable, and demand is supported by agricultural needs and overseas supply tightening. A short - term bullish view is taken [28][30]. PX - The main contract rose. Supply decreased slightly, and the cost was supported by rising crude oil prices. Prices may rise but with limited upside. Cautious operations at low levels are recommended [31]. PTA - The main contract rose. Supply decreased, demand increased, and the cost was supported by crude oil. Consider going long at low levels [32][33]. Ethylene Glycol - The main contract rose. Supply was affected by the Middle - East conflict, and inventory decreased slightly. Take a cautiously bullish view and monitor imports [34]. Staple Fiber - The main contract rose. Supply decreased, demand weakened, and the cost was supported. Consider short - term long - buying at low levels and expanding processing margins [35][36]. Bottle Chips - The main contract rose. The cost was supported, supply decreased due to maintenance, and demand improved. Consider cautious participation at low levels and expanding processing margins [37]. Soda Ash - The main contract rose. Supply increased slightly, demand was weak, and inventory increased. The long - term oversupply situation persists, and avoid over - chasing short - term rebounds [38][39]. Glass - The main contract rose. There is no obvious supply - demand driver. The market sentiment is weak, and avoid over - chasing short - term rebounds [40]. Caustic Soda - The main contract declined slightly. Supply may increase, demand is weak, and the overall supply - demand is loose. Long - position holders should control their positions [41][42]. Pulp - The main contract rose. Downstream product production declined, and demand was weak. The domestic chemical pulp market showed a weak upward trend [43]. Lithium Carbonate - The main contract declined slightly. Supply remains high, demand slows down, and the supply - demand surplus persists. Prices are hard to reverse [46]. Copper - Shanghai copper declined. Affected by the Middle - East situation and the Fed's decision, prices oscillated. Although there are some positive factors, the market is cautious. Consider going long on the main contract [47]. Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply from mines is tight, and consumption is good. The price is expected to oscillate between the tight supply and the loose expectation [48]. Nickel - Shanghai nickel declined slightly. The cost support weakened, demand was weak, and the market was in an oversupply situation. Prices are expected to oscillate [49]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Futures prices rose. Soybean crushing increased, and inventory accumulated. Brazilian soybeans had a bumper harvest, and the cost increased. Be cautious about soybean meal and consider exiting long positions on rallies for soybean oil [50][51]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil was nearly flat. Exports increased, but demand from major markets was weak. Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [52][53]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed planting may decrease. Domestic imports increased, and inventory accumulated. Consider going long on the oil - meal ratio [54][55]. Cotton - Domestic cotton oscillated. Global supply - demand is expected to be loose, but oil prices may support cotton. The domestic industry is in the off - season. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [56][58]. Sugar - Domestic sugar oscillated at a low level. Brazilian production is expected to increase, and the conflict in the Middle - East may affect supply. Domestic inventory is low. Consider batch - buying [58][61]. Apples - Apple futures oscillated. The final output will be clear after bagging. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [62][63]. Live Pigs - The price declined slightly. Group - farm sales are increasing, and demand is weak after the holiday. Consider positive spreads for peak - season contracts [63][65]. Eggs - The price rose. Egg production is expected to increase, and it is the off - season. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [66]. Corn and Starch - Corn and starch futures rose slightly. Supply and demand are approaching balance, but there is pressure on the upside. Starch follows the corn market. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [67][68]. Logs - The main contract was flat. The number of incoming ships increased, and inventory changed. The market has no obvious driver. Beware of long - position sentiment disturbances [69][71].

2025 年 6 月 20 日 鸡蛋：现货利空已兑现，逐步交易旺季预期 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2507 | 2,939 | 0.86 | -39,512 | -2,718 | | | 鸡蛋2509 | 3,673 | 0.08 | -17,783 | 1,574 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | 差 价 | 鸡蛋7-8价差 | | -679 | | -663 | | | 鸡蛋7-9价差 | | -734 | | -735 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 3.00 | | 2.90 | | | 河北现货价格 | | 2.62 | | 2.62 | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 2.90 | | 2.80 | | | 湖北现货价格 | | 2.98 | | 2.98 | | | | ...

| | 尿素 | UR2509 | 验证 | 约压力位调整到1780-1800 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | bX | PX2509 | 自身供需偏紧叠加成本端偏强,短期PX走势偏强 | 短期偏强,关注7000以上压力及油价走势;PX- SC价差做缩策略低位减仓。 | | | PTA | TA2509 | 供需逐步转弱但成本端偏强,PTA偏强震荡 | 短期偏强,关注5000附近压力;TA9-1滚动反套 操作 | | 能源 | 短纤 | PF2508 | 工厂减产预期下,加工费存修复预期 | PF单边同PTA:PF盘面加工费低位做扩为主 | | 《工 | 瓶片 | PR2509 | 需求旺季,瓶片存减产预期,加工费或触底反弹,PR跟随成本 波动 | PR单边同PTA: PR主力盘面加工费预计在350- 600元/吨区间波动,关注区间下沿做扩机会 | | | 乙醇 | EG2509 | 伊朗乙二醇装置停车,提振乙二醇上涨 | 短期EG09关注4500-4550压力 | | | 苯乙烯 | EB2507 | 短期能源扰动盘面震荡反复,关注中期矛盾 | 建议暂观望:中期关 ...

2025 年 06 月 20 日 短纤：成本扰动延续，跟随上涨，波动率放大 瓶片：成本扰动延续，跟随上涨，波动率放大 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 短纤2507 | 昨日 | 前日 6732 | 变化 136 | PF07-08 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ୧୫୧୫ | | | | 74 | 46 | | | PF | 短纤2508 | 6794 | 6686 | 108 | PF08-09 | 98 | 224 | -126 | | | 短纤2509 | 6696 | 6462 | 234 | PF基差 | 26 | 89 | -63 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 295810 | 288498 | 7312 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 820 | 6.775 | 45 | | ...

2025 年 6 月 20 日 研 究 焦炭：铁水增量，宽幅震荡 焦煤：铁水增量，宽幅震荡 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2509 | 790.5 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期货价格 | | J2509 | 1374 | -1 | -0. 07% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 780917 | 536104 | -13631 | | | | J2509 | 22325 | 50347 | -1539 | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 昨日价格(元/吨) 1170 | 前日价格(元/吨) 1170 | 涨跌(元/吨) 0 | | | 焦煤 | | | | | | | | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 8୧8 | 8୧8 | ...

2025年06月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限，反套表达 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：警惕地缘缓和带来回调风险 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆休市，连粕震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：低位整理为主 | 8 | | 棉花：关注外部市场影响 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：现货利空已兑现，逐步交易旺季预期 | 11 | | 生猪：等待现货印证，远端成本中枢下移 | 12 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 20 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限，反套表达 豆油：警惕地缘缓和带来回调风险 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 美国农业部(USDA)公布，2025 年美国大豆生产成本预测总计为 639.15 美元/英亩，2026 年美国大豆 生产成本预测总计为 650.34 美元/英亩。 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | ...

周四沪铜收低,伦铜再次测试MA20日均线,若失守价格短线将再回9500美元。国内现铜报78680元,上海升水缩 至145元，周内社库减少1800吨至14.59万吨。隔夜美联储维持利率不变，继续下调经济增速预期。空头持有。 (铝&氧化铝) 今日沪铝小幅回落，华东现货升水收窄10元至180元。今日铝锭社库较周一下降0.9万吨，铝棒增加0.3万吨。近 期低库存状态造成Back结构加深短期有利于多头，指数持仓激增至60万手以上警惕资金转向。下游开工持续走 弱,预计现货价格向上空间有限,关注负反馈能否在库存上兑现以及月差收窄后的盘面洁空机会。铸造铝合金 期货盘面小幅上涨，保太ADC12报价回落100元至19600元，旺季合约出现一定升水。铝和铸造铝合金现货价差扩 大至千元以上，但盘面AL2511与AD2511价差仅在400元左右，如有扩大考虑多AD空AL介入。近期氧化铝现货成交 稀少,各地指数价格持续回落至3200元以下,几内亚矿石在75美元趋稳对应山西成本在3000元附近。行业利润 修复后国内运行产能连续四周回升至9200万吨以上,过剩压力下期货贴水如继续修复考虑反弹治空参与。 【锌】 6月13日当周LME锌投资基金 ...