| | | | | 尿素早评20250430: 需求阶段性放缓 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 单位 4月29日 4月27日 | | | | 変化值 (绝对值) | 变化值 (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 山东 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1712.00 1800.00 | 1742.00 1790.00 | -30.00 10.00 | -1.72% 0.56% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1776.00 | 1788.00 | -12.00 | -0.67% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1735.00 | 1781.00 | -46.00 | -2.58% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1700.00 | 1700.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1820.00 | 1800.00 | 20.00 | 1.11% | | | (小顆粒) | ...

| | | | 甲醇日评20250430:轻仓过节 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | | 单位 | 2025/4/29 | 2025/4/28 | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2341.00 | 2370.00 | (绝对值) -29.00 | (相对值) -1.22% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 2425.00 | 2425.00 | 0.00 | | | | 甲醇期货价格 (收盘价) | MA05 MA09 | 元/吨 | 2355.00 2278.00 | 2389.00 2310.00 | -34.00 -32.00 | -1.42% -1.39% | | 期现价格 及其差 | 甲醇现货价格 | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2445.00 | 2455.00 | -10.00 | 0.00% -0.41% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2475.00 | 2480.00 | -5.00 | -0.20% | | | (日度均价) | 陕西 | 元 ...

2025 年 04 月 30 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：偏弱震荡，规避假期风险 豆一：反弹震荡，规避假期风险 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2507（元/吨） | 4162 | -63（-1.69%） | 4187 | +7（+0.17%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2964 -21 | （-0.70%） | 2957 | -20（-0.67%） | | | CBOT大豆07（美分/蒲） | 1052.5 | -8.75（-0.82%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕07（美元/短吨） | 298.2 +2.2 | （+0.74%） | na | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 3500～3600， 较昨-100或-150； M2509-60/-50/-40/-20 ...

2025 年 04 月 30 日 铝：震荡偏强 氧化铝：大幅下跌 【综合快讯】 1. 阿拉丁（ALD）调研了解，五一长假前倒数几个工作日，考虑到出货周期、回款周期及铝价因素，昨 日铝棒加工费小幅上行，出货商不多，但接货方也有限，接货方压价刚需采购为主，大部分出货商下调加工 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期 货 研 究 期货研究 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtjt.com | 铝、氧化铝基本面数据更新 | | --- | 资料来源：SMM、同花顺 ifind、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 期货研究 国泰君安期货有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）具有中国证监会核准的期货投资咨询业务 资格（证监许可 [2011]1449 号）。 费以利出货，加工费下移，整体成交情况尚可。华南地区铝棒大棒加工费报价 320-370 元/吨，小棒加工费 380-430 元/吨；华东地区铝棒加工费报价 ...

2025 年 04 月 30 日 短纤：短期反弹，节前控制仓位 瓶片：短期反弹，节前控制仓位 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2505 | 6142 | 6126 | 16 | PF05-06 | -42 | -50 | 8 | | PF | 短纤2506 | 6184 | 6176 | 8 | PF06-07 | 48 | 144 | -96 | | | 短纤2507 | 6136 | 6032 | 104 | PF基差 | 161 | 174 | -13 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 251285 | 269613 | -18328 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6, 345 | 6. 350 | -5 | | | 短纤成交量 | ...

2025 年 4 月 30 日 沥青：原油回撤，轻仓过节 资料来源：同花顺，隆众资讯，百川盈孚，国泰君安期货研究 图 1：BU-SC 被动扩张后企稳震荡 图 2：仓单增后持稳 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 BU-SC 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi023726@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | - ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年4月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 2、基差：现货22970，基差+420；偏多。 4月29日期货交易所锌期货行情 3、库存：4月29日LME锌库存较上日减少1775吨至177550吨，4月29日上期 所锌库存仓单较上日减少427吨至2429吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡走势，收20日均线之上,20日均线向下；中性。 5、主力持仓：主力净空头，空增；偏空。 6、预期：LME库存仓单迅速下降；上期所仓单继续下降；沪锌ZN2506：震 荡盘整。 1、基本面：外媒4月16日消息， 世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据 报告显示, 2025年2月, 全球锌板产量为112.45万吨,消费量为110.79万吨, 供应过剩1.66 ...

贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-04-29 | 6206 | 4440 | 4187 | 6184 | 3456 | | 2025-04-28 | 6294 | 4480 | 4190 | 6176 | 3529 | | 2025-04-25 | 6230 | 4400 | 4160 | 6046 | 3477 | | 2025-04-24 | 6166 | 4370 | 4179 | 6028 | 3446 | | 2025-04-23 | 6224 | 4408 | 4250 | 6092 | 3507 | | 日度变化 | -1.4% | -0.9% | -0.1% | 0.1% | -2.1% | | 月 差 | P X（ 5 - 9） | P T A（ 5 - 9） | ...

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250430：重心下移 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 2025/4/30 | 指标 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 元/吨 9,350.00 -1.06% | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 工业硅期现价格 元/吨 8,540.00 -2.95% | 期货主力合约收盘价 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 元/吨 810.00 160.00 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 元/千克 38.00 0.00% | N型多晶硅料 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 多晶硅期现价格 元/吨 37,320.00 -1.22% | 期货主力合约收盘价 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The resumption of production at the Wabang Manxiang tin mine in Myanmar still takes time and the fee standard has increased, there are still disruptions in refined tin production in Malaysia, and the inventories of refined tin at home and abroad are decreasing. These factors may cause the price of Shanghai tin to be cautiously bullish. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously, paying attention to the support levels and pressure levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Tin Futures**: On April 28, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 260,570, down 2,270 from the previous day; trading volume was 48,003 lots, down 24,008 lots; open interest was 12,035 lots, down 5,566 lots; inventory was 8,722 tons, down 192 tons [1]. - **Shanghai Tin Basis and Spreads**: The SMM 1 tin semi - average price was 260,200, down 2,800; the Shanghai tin basis was - 370, down 530; the spread between the near - month and the first - consecutive contract was - 20, up 50; the spread between the first - consecutive and the second - consecutive contract was 80, down 320 [1]. - **London Tin**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month tin futures (electronic trading) on April 25 was 31,975; the LME tin 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 166.99; the LME tin 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 135; the LME global tin inventory was 2,845 tons; the LME registered inventory was 2,415 tons; the cancelled warrants were 430 tons; the Shanghai - London tin price ratio was 8.15, down 0.07 [1]. 3.2 Project Information - **Oropesa Project**: It will make the company the first European vertically - integrated tin producer from mine to metal. The feasibility study outlines a 1.4 - million - ton - per - year open - pit mine, expected to produce an average of 3,405 tons of tin per year over a 12 - year mine life and be processed at a local smelter in Spain. The first ore reserve report shows a reserve of 15.9 million tons, with a tin grade of 0.36% and a metal content of 57,900 tons [1]. 3.3 Industry News - **Wabang Mining**: On April 23, 2025, a symposium on the resumption of production of the Manxiang tin mine was held, clarifying the process of obtaining mining, concentrator, and exploration licenses. The new fee standards are significantly higher than those in 2023, which will increase the cost pressure on low - altitude mines and small - and medium - sized concentrators. The full resumption of normal mining is expected to take about two months, and the resumption of production in Wabang and the restart of the Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) may relieve supply pressure to some extent [1]. 3.4 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The resumption of production in Wabang and Congo (Kinshasa) may affect domestic tin ore production and imports, and domestic tin concentrate processing fees are expected to decline, indicating a tight supply of domestic tin ore. The supply of scrap tin is expected to increase, and the production of recycled tin in China in May may increase. The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Jiangxi and Yunnan have decreased, and the production and inventory of refined tin in China in May may decrease. The export volume of Malaysia's MSC smelting company may increase, and the import volume of refined tin in China in June may increase [1]. - **Demand**: The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased, and the operating rate of tin solder production capacity in China in May may decline. The import volume of solder strips in China in May may decrease, and the export volume may increase. The production volume of tin - plated sheets in China in June may increase, while the import and export volumes may decrease. The operating rate of lead - acid battery production capacity in China has increased [1].