| 《八 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年10月17日 | 操作评级 | | | | 曹凯 首席分析师 | 棉花 | ★★★ | | | F03095462 Z0017365 | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | | | な女女 | 白糖 | 黄维 高级分析师 | 苹果 | | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | 木材 | | | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | 天然橡胶 | | | 女女女 | F0285606 Z0003096 | | | | 20号胶 | な女女 | | | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | | | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅上涨，节后走势偏震荡，棉花现货价格稳中偏弱：目前新棉的成本总体持稳，主流价格在6.1-6.2元/公斤左右， 较高收购价在6.2-6.3元/公斤左右，既给盘面带来一定的支撑，但上涨也会面临套保的压力。截至10月15号，棉花累积检验量 为49.15万吨，同比增加27万吨左右。轧花厂对于籽 ...

盘前市场动向 1. 10月20日(周一)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.14%，标普500指数期货 涨0.27%，纳指期货涨0.35%。 | ■ US 30 | 46,256.60 | 46,397.80 | 46,124.00 | +66.00 | +0.14% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | # US 500 | 6,682.00 | 6,700.40 | 6,657.40 | +18.00 | +0.27% | | 監 US Tech 100 | 24,905.40 | 24,988.50 | 24,790.80 | +87.50 | +0.35% | 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨1.12%，英国富时100指数涨0.38%，法国CAC40指数跌0.17%，欧洲斯托 克50指数涨0.64%。 | ■ 德国DAX30 | 24,113.52 | 24,163.99 | 24,005.70 | +268.11 | +1.12% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 器 英国富时100 ...

Market Review - The overseas AI chip index increased by 2.90% this week, with all constituent stocks showing upward movement, particularly MPS which rose over 10% [1] - The domestic AI chip index fell by 6.1%, influenced by the tense China-U.S. trade relations, with only Cambricon showing a slight increase of less than 1% [1] - The Nvidia mapping index decreased by 8.7% due to U.S. export controls, resulting in Nvidia losing its market share in China's data-centric GPU market, leading to declines in related industry stocks [1] - The server ODM index rose by 1.1%, with significant performance differences among constituent stocks; Wiwynn increased by over 10%, while Wistron fell by nearly 10% [1] - The storage chip index declined by 2.1%, with short-term supply-demand dynamics causing varied stock performance among constituents [1] - The power semiconductor index dropped by 3.2%, and both the Guoyuan A-share and Hong Kong fruit chain indices fell by 10% and 10.1% respectively [1] Industry Data - Global wearable wristband device shipments grew by 13% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with Xiaomi (61% growth) and Huawei (47% growth) leading the market significantly [2] - Global smartphone shipments increased by 4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with Samsung maintaining the top position due to its A series and foldable models, while Apple became the fastest-growing brand among the top five, driven by demand in emerging markets [2] - High-end PC panel and OLED laptop panel shipments are expected to grow by approximately 9% in 2025, with the OLED laptop market projected to enter a high growth phase in 2026, driven by Apple's launch of the OLED MacBook Pro, with an expected annual growth rate of 30% [2] Major Events - Micron plans to cease supplying server chips to Chinese data centers while retaining its automotive and mobile business, creating market opportunities for competitors like Samsung and SK Hynix, and accelerating the replacement process for local Chinese storage chip companies such as Yangtze Memory Technologies [3] - Due to U.S. export controls, Nvidia's CEO confirmed a complete exit from the advanced AI chip market in China, resulting in a market share drop from 95% to zero, which he believes will facilitate the rise of Chinese manufacturers like Huawei and lead to a split in the global AI ecosystem [3] - Apple plans to launch its first touchscreen MacBook Pro in 2026-2027, featuring the M6 chip and an OLED display [3]

Market Overview - The overseas AI chip index increased by 2.90% this week, with all constituent stocks showing upward movement, particularly MPS which rose over 10% [2] - The domestic AI chip index fell by 6.1%, influenced by the tense US-China trade relations, with only Cambricon showing a slight increase of less than 1% [2] - The Nvidia mapping index decreased by 8.7% due to US export controls, resulting in Nvidia losing its market share in China's data-centric GPU market [2] - The server ODM index rose by 1.1%, with significant performance differences among constituent stocks; Wiwynn increased by over 10%, while Wistron fell by nearly 10% [2] - The storage chip index declined by 2.1%, reflecting varied stock performance due to short-term supply-demand dynamics [2] - The power semiconductor index dropped by 3.2%, and both the Guoyuan A-share and Hong Kong fruit chain indices fell by 10% and 10.1% respectively [2] Industry Data - Global wearable wristband device shipments grew by 13% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with Xiaomi (61% growth) and Huawei (47% growth) leading the market [3] - Global smartphone shipments increased by 4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with Samsung maintaining the top position and Apple being the fastest-growing brand, driven by demand in emerging markets [3] - High-end PC panel and OLED laptop panel shipments are expected to grow by approximately 9% in 2025, with a projected annual growth rate of 30% for OLED laptops starting in 2026 [3] Major Events - Micron plans to cease supplying server chips to Chinese data centers while retaining its automotive and mobile business, creating market opportunities for competitors like Samsung and SK Hynix, and accelerating the replacement process for local Chinese storage chip companies [4] - Due to US export controls, Nvidia's CEO confirmed a complete exit from the Chinese advanced AI chip market, reducing its market share from 95% to zero, which may facilitate the rise of Chinese manufacturers like Huawei and lead to a split in the global AI ecosystem [4] - Apple plans to launch its first touchscreen MacBook Pro in 2026-2027, featuring the M6 chip and an OLED display [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - After a high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection phase again. Domestically, the liquidity environment is likely to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. Externally, with the Fed's rate cuts and RMB appreciation, foreign funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In terms of market style, although technology growth has been the core theme in the current upward market trend, considering the potential intensification of Q4 growth - stabilization policies and the possible resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style in Q4 may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to Q3 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4539.60, 4495.80, 4485.20, and 4463.00 respectively, with declines of - 71.60, - 101.00, - 100.60, and - 101.20. The trading volumes were 19019.00, 35560.00, 99982.00, and 14870.00, and the changes in open interest were - 23420.00, 10934.00, 1460.00, and 2001.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 2983.00, 2964.20, 2963.00, and 2963.60 respectively, with declines of - 35.00, - 53.00, - 54.40, and - 53.20. The trading volumes were 7404.00, 17069.00, 56818.00, and 7921.00, and the changes in open interest were - 9009.00, 4742.00, - 2091.00, and 396.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 7064.00, 6922.40, 6863.20, and 6702.00 respectively, with declines of - 148.60, - 189.40, - 183.40, and - 179.60. The trading volumes were 18020.00, 36648.00, 97770.00, and 19962.00, and the changes in open interest were - 23203.00, 13500.00, 2402.00, and 837.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 7230.20, 7100.00, 7020.80, and 6805.00 respectively, with declines of - 163.80, - 176.80, - 169.80, and - 166.40. The trading volumes were 29136.00, 55221.00, 173725.00, and 32831.00, and the changes in open interest were - 33142.00, 23468.00, 14163.00, and 4252.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 43.80, - 18.80, - 141.60, and - 130.20 respectively, compared to previous values of - 14.40, 0.40, - 99.00, and - 110.20 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4514.23, 2967.77, 7016.07, and 7185.48 respectively, with declines of - 2.26%, - 1.70%, - 2.98%, and - 2.92%. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 256.91, 62.68, 200.04, and 254.33, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 5590.86, 1487.49, 3481.14, and 3838.75 [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among the CSI 300 industry indexes, the energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption sectors had declines of - 0.78%, - 1.72%, - 3.37%, and - 2.19%. The major consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology sectors had declines of - 1.48%, - 2.31%, - 1.08%, and - 4.02%. The telecommunications and public utilities sectors had declines of - 1.99% and - 0.51% [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IF contracts (current month - CSI 300, next month - CSI 300, next quarter - CSI 300, and far - quarter - CSI 300) were 25.37, - 18.43, - 29.03, and - 51.23 respectively, compared to previous values of - 4.42, - 18.82, - 28.42, and - 51.62 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IH contracts (current month - SSE 50, next month - SSE 50, next quarter - SSE 50, and far - quarter - SSE 50) were 15.23, - 3.57, - 4.77, and - 4.17 respectively, compared to previous values of 0.00, 0.40, - 0.20, and - 0.20 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IC contracts (current month - CSI 500, next month - CSI 500, next quarter - CSI 500, and far - quarter - CSI 500) were 47.93, - 93.67, - 152.87, and - 314.07 respectively, compared to previous values of - 6.13, - 105.13, - 169.53, and - 336.33 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IM contracts (current month - CSI 1000, next month - CSI 1000, next quarter - CSI 1000, and far - quarter - CSI 1000) were 44.72, - 85.48, - 164.68, and - 380.48 respectively, compared to previous values of 1.56, - 108.64, - 196.84, and - 420.44 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - cap Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3839.76, 12688.94, 7815.57, and 2935.37 respectively, with declines of - 1.95%, - 3.04%, - 2.96%, and - 3.36% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 25247.10, 48277.74, 6664.01, and 23830.99 respectively, with changes of - 2.48%, 1.27%, 0.53%, and - 1.82% [1] 3.5 Macro Information - **US Trade Policy**: US President Trump continued to send conciliatory signals in a recent interview, hinting that the door for negotiation remained open. The Trump administration is quietly relaxing multiple tariff policies, exempting dozens of products from the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" in recent weeks and indicating willingness to exclude more products when other countries reach trade agreements with the US. This move comes before the Supreme Court's hearing on "reciprocal tariffs" in early November [2] - **HK Financial Official's View**: Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo - po stated that at the IMF and World Bank Group annual meetings in Washington, there were many concerns about the economic outlook. Business leaders and think - tanks in the US generally believed that stable Sino - US relations were crucial for both countries and the global economy. Many business friends expressed their hope to use Hong Kong as an entry point and springboard to explore the mainland and Asian markets [2] - **Fund Market**: As of October 19, 2025, the number of newly established funds this year reached 1163, exceeding the 1135 in 2024, indicating a strong recovery in the fund market. Among them, the number of newly established equity funds was 661, with an issuance scale of 339.396 billion yuan, accounting for 37.45% of the total issuance scale, reaching a 15 - year high since 2011. The total issuance scale this year was 906.273 billion yuan [2] - **ETF Market**: As of October 17, the net inflow of funds into the ETF market in October reached 99.161 billion yuan. Equity ETFs contributed 92.457 billion yuan, accounting for over 90% and becoming the core driving force for the inflow of funds into the ETF market. Additionally, the issuance of index funds was also very active, with over 50 index funds (including enhanced index funds and linked funds) planned for issuance this month [2] 3.6 Industry Information - **Silver Market**: The price of silver has been rising continuously this year, with a cumulative increase of nearly 70%. In Yongxing County, Hunan Province, a major silver - producing area in China, most stores are out of stock. A silver enterprise executive said that investment silver bars are in short supply, with the price rising from over 8000 yuan to over 13000 yuan [2] - **Banking Industry**: After the National Day holiday, banks have entered the final stage of the annual battle. Recently, banking financial institutions have held Q4 work meetings to summarize the performance of the first three quarters and plan the key work for Q4 to ensure the achievement of annual performance targets. Some small and medium - sized banks have even launched next year's "good start" campaign two months earlier than usual [2] - **Real - Estate Policy**: The Housing and Urban Renewal Bureau of Wuhan Economic and Technological Development Zone has introduced multiple measures, including purchase subsidies, group - buying incentives, and enterprise rewards. From October 1 to December 31, 2025, families purchasing their first new commercial housing in the Zhuankou, Zhuanyang, Junshan, and Hannan areas of the development zone with commercial loans can enjoy loan interest subsidies of 1%, 1.5%, and 2% of the initial loan amount, with a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan, 30,000 yuan, and 40,000 yuan per household respectively [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the US government continued to shut down, trade concerns were high, and the expectation of interest rate cuts rose again. Gold and silver prices first rose and then fell. The prices of gold and silver expanded their gains again. Shanghai gold closed up 9.94%, COMEX gold closed up 6.69%, Shanghai silver closed up 9.24%, and COMEX silver closed up 7.15%. The US dollar index significantly closed down 0.27%, and the RMB appreciated slightly by 0.29%. On Friday night, affected by optimistic trade news, gold and silver prices tumbled [13]. - The Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party basically reached a consensus on coalition governance. According to Japanese media, this means that Kōshi Kanasugi is almost certain to win the prime - ministerial nomination election on the 21st [13][14]. - On the morning of October 18th, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call and agreed to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [13][14]. - In terms of positions, the net position of Shanghai gold decreased significantly, with more long positions cut and short positions increased. The net position of Shanghai silver decreased slightly, with both long and short positions increasing significantly, but the long positions began to decrease in the second half of the week, which deviated significantly from the price increase. As of September 23rd, the CFTC net long position in gold remained net long and increased slightly, with both long and short positions increasing; the CFTC net long position in silver continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing [13]. - This week, events and data are concentrated. China's Q3 GDP, social retail, real estate development investment and other economic data, and the US CPI and manufacturing PMI will be released. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will be held. The 47th ASEAN Summit will be held in Malaysia, and Trump will attend. The Fed will hold a payment innovation conference. The US 9 - month CPI originally scheduled for October 15th was postponed to October 24th due to the government shutdown, and the US October Markit manufacturing PMI will also be announced on the same day [13]. - This week, attention should be paid to the result of the Japanese prime - ministerial nomination. The appointment of a dovish prime minister in Japan will bring upward momentum in the direction of easing. On the other hand, Sino - US trade concerns have significantly cooled down. These two factors will impact gold and silver prices in opposite directions, but the improvement in risk appetite will also drive gold and silver prices to remain relatively strong. The upward trend remains unchanged, but there may be fluctuations in the near future [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Review - The prices of various gold and silver varieties showed different price movements and fluctuations last week. For example, Shanghai gold 2512 had a previous close of 999, the highest was 1001, and the increase was 94; Shanghai silver 2512 had a previous close of 12249, the highest was 12366, and the increase was 24. The US dollar index closed down 0.27%, and the RMB appreciated 0.29% [4][13]. 2. Weekly Review - The US government continued to shut down last week, trade concerns were high, and gold and silver prices first rose and then fell. The Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party reached a consensus on coalition governance. Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call and agreed to hold new - round consultations. China's September economic data showed that the new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, the M2 - M1 scissors - gap reached a new low of 1.2 percentage points, the year - on - year decline in CPI narrowed to 0.3%, the core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months, and the year - on - year decline in PPI narrowed to 2.3% [13][14][15]. 3. Fundamental Data - China's September economic data: new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, new RMB deposits were 2.21 trillion yuan, the M2 - M1 scissors - gap was 1.2 percentage points. The year - on - year decline in CPI narrowed to 0.3%, the core CPI was 1%, and the year - on - year decline in PPI narrowed to 2.3% [15]. 4. Position Data - Shanghai gold's top 20 long positions decreased by 7.00% to 204,656, short positions increased by 1.25% to 79,553, and the net position decreased by 11.59% to 125,103. Shanghai silver's top 20 long positions increased by 9.91% to 377,410, short positions increased by 14.57% to 285,786, and the net position decreased by 2.46% to 91,624. As of September 23rd, the CFTC net long position in gold remained net long and increased slightly, with both long and short positions increasing; the CFTC net long position in silver continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing [25][27][29]. 5. Summary - This week, attention should be paid to the result of the Japanese prime - ministerial nomination and the release of the US CPI data. The upward trend of gold and silver prices remains unchanged, but there may be fluctuations in the near future [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The mid - term trend of the crude oil market remains under pressure, but short - term downward momentum is weakening, and the market may shift to weak oscillations [2]. - Precious metals have a solid long - term upward logic but extremely high short - term volatility risks, so it is advisable to reduce positions and mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]. - For various non - ferrous metals, different metals have different trends and trading strategies, such as copper and aluminum showing different price characteristics and trading suggestions [4][5]. - Steel products' market is affected by factors such as demand, production, and trade relations, with a complex trend [13]. - The shipping market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the future trend depends on factors such as the implementation of price increases and geopolitical situations [19]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different supply - demand situations and corresponding trading strategies, such as fuel oil and asphalt [20][21]. - Agricultural products' market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and trade relations, and different products show different trends and trading suggestions, such as soybeans and oils [35][36]. - The financial market, including stock indexes and bonds, is affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, economic data, and trade relations, and the market trends are complex [47][48]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices continued to decline. The Brent December contract fell 1.21%. The mid - term trend is under pressure due to increased surplus forecasts and geopolitical easing, but short - term downward momentum is weakening [2]. - **Precious Metals**: On Friday, precious metals finally adjusted. Gold prices dropped by $200, and silver was more volatile. The long - term upward logic is solid, but short - term volatility is high [3]. Metals - **Copper**: Last Friday, LME copper recovered intraday losses, showing resilience in low - level buying interest. The market is paying attention to Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. Shanghai copper shows strong resilience at the 84,000 yuan level [4]. - **Aluminum**: On Friday night, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The inventory has returned to seasonal destocking, and the short - term trend is to test the previous high resistance [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The Baotai spot price is 20,600 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, but the industry inventory is high, and it mainly follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum [6]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity is at a historical high, the inventory has increased significantly, and the supply surplus is obvious. The price is running weakly [7]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc has low inventory supporting high spot premiums, but downstream acceptance of high prices is low. The short - term trend is to be under pressure at the $3,080/ton level [8]. - **Lead**: LME lead has a 0 - 3 - month discount of $41.85/ton. The domestic short - term inventory is low, but the rebound space of Shanghai lead is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,800 - 17,200 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: Last Friday, LME tin's short - term decline reached below $34,500, and it closed above $35,000. Shanghai tin followed the decline. The inventory decreased last week, and short - term support is at 275,000 yuan [10]. Industrial Products - **Polysilicon**: The market is advancing in line with photovoltaic capacity control policies, but the policy implementation rhythm is uncertain. There is a risk of inventory accumulation if production cuts are not realized [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The Xinjiang start - up rate has reached a new high this year, and the downstream demand is stable. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate [12]. - **Steel Products (Thread & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: On Friday night, steel prices rebounded. The demand for thread has increased, and the production has decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coil has also increased, and the inventory accumulation has slowed down [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the iron ore futures price weakened. The supply has increased, and the demand may face pressure in the future. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [14]. - **Coke**: The price is oscillating strongly. The second round of price increases has started. The inventory is decreasing slightly, and the price may be prone to rise [15]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is oscillating strongly. The production has increased slightly, and the inventory has increased slightly. The price may be prone to rise [16]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is oscillating. The demand is stable, and the supply is at a high level. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is oscillating. The demand is fair, and the supply is at a high level. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [18]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The geopolitical situation is still unstable, and the Red Sea resumption of navigation is uncertain. The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the overall trend is expected to oscillate [19]. Energy - Chemical - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil has tightened, but the medium - term supply pressure may increase. The low - sulfur market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Attention can be paid to short - selling high - sulfur cracking spreads and widening high - low sulfur spreads [20]. - **Asphalt**: The current supply - demand is in a tight balance, but there is an expectation of slight inventory accumulation at the end of 2025 [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The US propane export has decreased, and the inventory situation is mixed. The demand is expected to increase in the traditional peak season, but the actual demand has not increased significantly [22]. - **Urea**: The main contract is oscillating at a low level. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is likely to continue to be weak [23]. - **Methanol**: The import supply may be affected by sanctions, and the inventory situation needs attention [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price has declined due to the fall in oil prices. The current fundamentals are okay, but the medium - term trend depends on oil prices and the external market [25]. - **Styrene**: The supply is sufficient, and the terminal demand is under pressure due to trade conflicts [26]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand follow - up is limited, so the price support is weak [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may oscillate weakly, and caustic soda needs to pay attention to the inventory and demand situation [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The supply of PX is temporarily shrinking, and the supply of PTA is expected to increase. The demand is expected to turn weak, and the prices are expected to be weak [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The domestic start - up rate has decreased slightly, and the inventory accumulation expectation has weakened. The short - term trend depends on the raw material market [30]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The sales of new - season US soybeans are slow, and the domestic supply is sufficient in the fourth quarter. If the Sino - US trade relationship deteriorates, the supply may be tight in the first quarter of next year. The market may oscillate downward if the trade relationship does not improve [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The price of US soybeans needs to be tested under export pressure. The oil - meal price difference is widening, and the oil market is more resilient. Palm oil has production reduction expectations in the fourth quarter, and domestic soybean oil has high inventory [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed inventory is low, and the supply is limited in the short term. But the arrival of Australian rapeseed may relieve the supply pressure [37]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The domestic soybean futures price is oscillating after a rebound. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is widening [38]. - **Corn**: The Northeast corn price has rebounded slightly, but the supply is expected to be abundant in the future, and the price may continue to be weak at the bottom [39]. - **Hogs**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is weak. The sow inventory is expected to be reduced, and the mid - term price may remain low [40]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is under pressure, and the spot price has started to decline. There is a risk of further price decline in the medium term [41]. - **Cotton**: US cotton has rebounded slightly, and the demand may be weak. The domestic new cotton cost is around 14,000 yuan, and the demand is general [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to be good [43]. - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating. The new - season cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected, and the price is under pressure [44]. - **Timber**: The futures price is oscillating. The domestic supply may remain low, and the demand is average in the peak season [45]. - **Pulp**: The price has rebounded slightly. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. Attention should be paid to the port inventory [46]. Financial - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the stock market declined, and the futures index also fell. The market is affected by factors such as US bank credit problems, geopolitical situations, and Sino - US economic and trade relations. The market style may rotate [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures price has risen. The domestic interest rate may oscillate widely at a high level, and the bond market is entering a repair stage [48].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the Hang Seng Index recently fell to approximately 25,247 points, influenced by ongoing tensions in US-China trade relations and short-term impacts from tariff news. The medium to long-term outlook is expected to be more affected by fundamental and policy factors [11][12]. - The report highlights that the People's Bank of China maintained the 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.50% and the 1-year LPR at 3.00% in September, reflecting the market's digestion of risks related to recent antitrust laws, policies, regulations, and real estate debt in China [11][12]. - The report notes that the US President announced a 100% additional tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1, which is expected to further impact market sentiment [11]. Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,247 points, down 641 points or 2.48%, with a total market turnover of HKD 314.6 billion. The H-share index fell to 9,011 points, down 247 points or 2.67% [12]. - The report provides a performance overview of major indices, with the Hang Seng Index showing a year-to-date increase of 25.9%, while the H-share index increased by 23.6% [3][4]. - The report lists the best and worst performing stocks within the Hang Seng Index, with Chow Tai Fook (1929) showing a significant year-to-date increase of 151.4%, while BYD Electronics (0285) experienced a decline of 8.5% [3]. Company Analysis: Nongfu Spring (9633.HK) - Nongfu Spring reported a half-year revenue of RMB 25.6 billion for the period ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.6%. Gross profit reached RMB 15.5 billion, up 18.6%, with a gross margin of 60.3%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points [26][27]. - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 7.62 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.2%, with basic earnings per share of RMB 0.677, also up 22.0% [26]. - Nongfu Spring's total assets were approximately RMB 64.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, while total liabilities rose to RMB 33 billion, up 58.2% [27]. - The report notes that the company's current market valuation is lower than its historical average, with a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 41.2, compared to a 5-year average of 53.1 [27]. New Stock Dynamics - The report outlines upcoming IPOs, including Guanghe Technology (638) and Dipu Technology (1384), with expected market interest due to their moderate to large fundraising scales [30][31]. - The report provides details on the expected pricing and market capitalizations for these new listings, indicating a positive market sentiment towards these offerings [30][31].

Group 1 - Asian markets experienced a rise due to conciliatory comments from Donald Trump regarding China-US trade tensions, with Tokyo stocks reaching a record high following a political deal in Japan [1][4] - China's economy grew more than expected in the third quarter, contributing to positive market sentiment, although it was noted to be at its slowest pace in a year [4] - The US and China agreed to hold more trade talks, with both sides expressing a willingness to negotiate further, which helped ease market concerns [3][5] Group 2 - Trump's remarks indicated a softer approach, suggesting that the 100 percent tariff on China was "not sustainable," which led to a significant market rally across Asia [4][5] - The Nikkei 225 index in Tokyo surged by 2.9 percent, while the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rose by 2.2 percent, reflecting investor optimism [7] - The recovery of US regional bank stocks indicated a reduced fear of systemic issues within the banking sector, contributing to overall market stability [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures showed a rebound after a decline. Dalian palm oil futures are expected to break through upwards following the Malaysian palm oil trend and have room to strengthen further [1]. - Soybean oil: Sino - US trade relations may improve, but domestic soybean oil has a pattern of narrow - range shock adjustment due to factors such as sufficient supply and potential release of reserve soybeans [1]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: Currently in the concentrated listing period, the futures market will maintain a weak pattern under the pressure of short - term supply [2]. Sugar - The raw sugar price has limited rebound momentum due to supply expectations. The sugar market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [6][7]. Meal and Soybeans - The supply of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is sufficient. The spot price is expected to remain weak this year, but the downward space is limited. There may be an opportunity for the 1 - 5 positive spread [9]. Cotton - The short - term cotton price will fluctuate within a range, with cost support at low levels and pressure from hedging at higher levels [12]. Live Pigs - In the short - term, the pig price has stabilized and rebounded, but in the medium - to long - term, the supply pressure will continue to be released, and the pig price is not optimistic. The spot price is expected to face pressure until the first half of next year [15]. Eggs - The egg price is expected to rise slightly this week and then stabilize, but it still faces overall pressure due to sufficient supply [18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On October 17, the price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 0.47% to 8,590 yuan/ton; the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton; the price of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.49% [1]. - **Market Trends**: Malaysian palm oil futures showed a rebound, while domestic soybean oil was in a narrow - range adjustment [1]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Price Changes**: The price of corn 2601 decreased by 0.89% to 2,117 yuan/ton; the price of corn starch 2511 decreased by 0.08% to 2,374 yuan/ton [2]. - **Market Conditions**: New - season corn is in the concentrated listing period, with weak prices due to supply pressure. Demand is cautious currently, but there may be an increase in the future [2]. Sugar - **Price Changes**: The price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.07% to 5,412 yuan/ton; the ICE raw sugar主力 decreased by 2.02% to 15.53 cents/pound [6]. - **Market Conditions**: The supply in Brazil is increasing, and the raw sugar price has limited rebound momentum. The domestic sugar market has a neutral - weak sales situation [6][7]. Meal and Soybeans - **Price Changes**: The price of soybean meal M2601 decreased by 1.34% to 2,868 yuan/ton; the price of Canadian canola meal RM2601 decreased by 2.45% to 2,306 yuan/ton [9]. - **Market Conditions**: The supply of domestic soybeans is sufficient, and the price of soybean meal is expected to remain weak [9]. Cotton - **Price Changes**: The price of cotton 2605 increased by 0.11% to 13,390 yuan/ton; the price of ICE US cotton主力 increased by 0.80% to 64.29 cents/pound [12]. - **Market Conditions**: The acquisition price of Xinjiang machine - picked seed cotton is firm. The short - term cotton price will fluctuate within a range [12]. Live Pigs - **Price Changes**: The price of live pig 2511 decreased by 1.03% to 11,050 yuan/ton; the price of live pig 2601 decreased by 1.97% to 11,670 yuan/ton [15]. - **Market Conditions**: Short - term price rebound, but long - term supply pressure persists, and the price is not optimistic [15]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: The price of the egg 11 - contract decreased by 0.46% to 2,805 yuan/500KG; the price of the egg 01 - contract increased by 0.13% to 3,179 yuan/500KG [18]. - **Market Conditions**: Sufficient egg supply, but improved demand may drive the price up slightly, with overall pressure [18].