| | 1、巴西植物油行业协会Abiove预测该国2025/26年度大豆产量将达到创纪录的1.785亿吨，高于 | | --- | --- | | | 去年的1.718亿吨。2、印尼能源部长Bahlil Lahadalia表示，印尼2025年1-9月生物柴油消费量 | | 行业 | 为1057万公升，较去年同期的961万公升增加近10%。3、据马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOA）发布的数 | | 信息 | 据，马来西亚10月1-20日棕榈油产量预估增加10.77%，其中马来半岛增加4.54%，沙巴增加 | | | 21.99%，沙捞越增加16.69%，婆罗洲增加20.45%。 | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕震荡收涨，最新出口检验报告显示，截至2025年10月16日的一周，美国大豆 | | | 出口检验量为1,474,354吨，高于市场预期区间，较一周增长45%。巴西新季大豆播种有序推进， | | | 根据AgRural数据截至上周四，巴西2025/26年度大豆种植率达到24%，高于前一周的14%和去年同 | | | 期的18%。近期市场对于中美贸易关系缓和预期升温，受此提振美豆期价有所回暖。国内方面，市 | | | ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing tension in US-China trade relations, particularly with the US considering broad software export restrictions against China, which may impact market performance [2][4] - The Hong Kong stock market has shown a downward trend, with major indices declining, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid external market pressures [2][3] Group 2: Company Overview - The specific company, Cambridge Technology (6166.HK), focuses on the design, development, and sales of connectivity and data transmission devices, ranking fifth globally in the optical and wireless connectivity device (OWCD) industry with a market share of 4.1% [6][7] - The company's revenue is projected to recover from a decline in 2022 to an expected increase in 2025, with net profit also showing a recovery trend [6][7] Group 3: Industry Status and Outlook - The OWCD industry is expected to grow significantly, with global sales projected to reach USD 54.6 billion in 2024 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.9% from 2020 to 2024, driven by digital transformation and technological upgrades [7][8] - The competitive landscape is characterized by intense competition and a fragmented market, with the main business models being JDM/ODM and CM/co-location production [7] Group 4: Strengths and Opportunities - The company has established significant technological and research barriers, with R&D spending increasing from CNY 270 million to CNY 320 million from 2022 to 2024, and a strong focus on cutting-edge technologies [8] - The company benefits from a global presence, with over 90% of revenue from overseas markets, allowing it to mitigate tariffs on Chinese products [8] Group 5: Weaknesses and Risks - The company faces risks from high customer concentration, with the top five customers accounting for 82.5% of revenue in the first half of 2025, which could impact performance if demand changes [9] - Trade policies and geopolitical risks, particularly regarding US tariffs on Chinese products, could affect overseas sales despite the company's ability to leverage production in Malaysia [10] Group 6: IPO Information and Fund Utilization - The IPO is expected to raise approximately HKD 4.48 billion, with funds allocated for capacity enhancement, R&D, marketing, and overseas strategic investments [11] - The company has secured cornerstone investors for the IPO, indicating strong market interest and confidence in its growth potential [12] Group 7: Investment Recommendation - The report suggests that Cambridge Technology possesses a clear recovery trend in performance and benefits from favorable industry dynamics, recommending subscription to the IPO while being mindful of potential risks [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including agriculture, black metals, non - ferrous metals, etc. Each market has its own supply - demand situation, price trends, and corresponding trading strategies based on macro - environment, policy, and industry - specific factors [17][20][45]. Summary by Related Catalogs Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Status**: The market is in a temporary stable phase, with soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuating. The international soybean market has large supply pressure, and domestic soybean meal may decline due to increased supply pressure [15][17]. - **Strategy**: Suggested to wait and see; M11 - 1 positive spread; sell call options on soybean meal [17]. Sugar - **Market Status**: Brazilian sugar prices are falling, and the overall trend of sugar is weak. The international raw sugar fundamentals are weak, and the domestic sugar market is expected to follow the international market [20]. - **Strategy**: Short - term rebound after a sharp decline, suggest short - selling at high prices; short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar; sell out - of - the - money call options [21]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Market Status**: The market lacks short - term drivers and fluctuates weakly. Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in October, domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory, and rapeseed oil has marginal inventory reduction [22][23]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, consider light - position long when there is a significant correction [24]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Market Status**: New grain supply is increasing, and the market is fluctuating weakly. US corn may fluctuate narrowly, and domestic corn has a short - term decline space [25][27]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long for 12 - contract corn on dips; close 01 - contract long positions; wait for dips to buy 05 and 07 - contract corn [27]. Live Pigs - **Market Status**: Supply pressure persists, and the rebound is blocked. The overall pig inventory is high, and the supply pressure remains [28]. - **Strategy**: Try short - selling in small quantities; LH15 reverse spread; sell call options [29]. Peanuts - **Market Status**: Peanut oil mills have not started large - scale purchases, and peanuts are oscillating at the bottom. The new - season peanuts are strong in some areas, and the market is stable [32][33]. - **Strategy**: Buy 01 and 05 - contract peanuts on dips; sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [33]. Eggs - **Market Status**: Inventory reduction is slow, and egg prices are fluctuating weakly. The laying - hen inventory is high, and the demand is average [34][36]. - **Strategy**: Close previous short positions; wait and see for spreads and options [37]. Apples - **Market Status**: The high - quality fruit rate is low, and apple prices are strong. Some areas have small - sized apples and water - crack problems, and the cost of futures warehouse receipts is high [38][39]. - **Strategy**: Long 11 - contract and short 1 - contract apples; wait and see for options [40]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Status**: New cotton purchase is accelerating, and cotton prices are fluctuating. Xinjiang cotton has a high yield, and the demand in the peak season is not strong [41][43]. - **Strategy**: Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate slightly stronger; short 11 - contract and long 1 - contract cotton; wait and see for options [43]. Black Metals Steel - **Market Status**: Driven by raw materials, steel prices rise, but there is still upward pressure. Construction steel trading volume is improving, but there are inventory and demand problems [45]. - **Strategy**: Maintain range - bound trading; long the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar; wait and see for options [46]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Status**: Supply is disrupted, and prices are supported. Coal mine production is affected by safety and environmental factors, but steel mill demand is not strong [47][48]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips, but be cautious about the upward space; wait and see for spreads and options [48]. Iron Ore - **Market Status**: Take a bearish view in the medium - term. Global iron ore supply has increased, and domestic demand may weaken [50][53]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell in the medium - term; wait and see for spreads and options [52][53]. Ferroalloys - **Market Status**: Low - valuation - driven rebound, but the sustainability is limited. Both silicon iron and manganese silicon have high supply and weak demand [55]. - **Strategy**: Continue range - bound trading; wait and see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [56]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Market Status**: Intense long - short competition, and gold and silver are in adjustment. The market is affected by geopolitical and macro - economic factors [58][61]. - **Strategy**: Enter an adjustment phase in the short - term; wait and see for spreads and options [61]. Copper - **Market Status**: Short - term consolidation, long - term trend unchanged. The macro - environment and supply - demand situation affect copper prices [62]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips, hold long - short positions across markets; wait and see for options [63]. Alumina - **Market Status**: Supply is changing, and prices are bottom - grinding. The market has an oversupply situation, and some producers are reducing production [66][70]. - **Strategy**: Bottom - grinding in the short - term, may rebound if production reduction expands; wait and see for spreads and options [70]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Status**: The medium - term upward trend remains unchanged, driven by macro - sentiment and fundamentals. The inventory is decreasing, and the production of some overseas plants is affected [70][71]. - **Strategy**: Bullish in the medium - term; wait and see for spreads and options [74]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Status**: The price is expected to be strong, with improved macro - sentiment and cost support. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and demand has resilience [75][80]. - **Strategy**: Bullish in the medium - term; wait and see for spreads and options [80]. Zinc - **Market Status**: Suggest waiting and seeing. The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas market has low inventory and high concentration of near - month contracts [81]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see for all strategies [82]. Lead - **Market Status**: Supply is gradually recovering, and prices may fall. With the resumption of production, the supply of lead ingots may increase [86]. - **Strategy**: Hold previous short positions, add short at high prices; wait and see for spreads and options [86]. Nickel - **Market Status**: Inventory accumulation indicates oversupply, and prices are under pressure. The supply of pure nickel is abundant, and demand is weak [89]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell at the upper edge of the shock range; wait and see for spreads; sell 2512 - contract wide - straddle options [90]. Stainless Steel - **Market Status**: The decline in warehouse receipts boosts near - month contracts. The price is lower than the cost, and demand restricts the increase [91]. - **Strategy**: Bullish in the short - term; long ss2512 and short ss2602 [93]. Other Commodities Industrial Silicon - **Market Status**: Narrow - range fluctuation in the short - term. The demand for polysilicon will decrease in November, and there is short - term oversupply [94]. - **Strategy**: Wait for a full correction; no strategy for spreads and options [94]. Polysilicon - **Market Status**: Buy on dips near the previous support level. The supply - demand balance will improve in November, and the short - term decline space is limited [95]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips; exit the previous rebound strategy; adjust the double - buying option strategy [95][97]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Status**: Supported by demand and supply risks, prices are rising. The domestic lithium ore is tightening, and the processing fee is decreasing [98]. - **Strategy**: Bullish; wait and see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money put options [99]. Tin - **Market Status**: The macro - sentiment cools down, and prices fluctuate around the integer level. The market has a wait - and - see attitude, and demand growth is slow [100]. - **Strategy**: Not provided in the text.

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on non - ferrous metals released on October 22, 2025, covering various non - ferrous metals such as copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - For copper, the macro - level risk aversion cools down, the supply - side disturbance of copper mines increases, the production is expected to decline, the terminal consumption is weak, and the strategy is to go long on dips cautiously [4][6]. - For alumina, the supply - demand surplus will become more significant, and the price may rebound after the short - position reduction, with a focus on the implementation of the production - reduction expectation [15][16]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro logic is the main driving factor, overseas production cuts intensify the supply - demand tension, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [22][23]. - For casting aluminum alloy, the macro sentiment improves, the cost support is stable, and the price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation in the short term [31][32]. - For zinc, the overseas low - inventory situation supports the LME price, and the domestic price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see and go short on rallies [37][40]. - For lead, the downstream consumption improves marginally, but the supply may increase, and it is recommended to hold short positions and add short on rallies [44]. - For nickel, the macro environment is volatile, the cost has support, but the supply is abundant and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies to the upper edge of the oscillation range [50][51]. - For stainless steel, the price oscillates strongly but is restricted by demand [57][58]. - For tin, the Sino - US trade tension eases, the mine supply is tight, and the price may oscillate around the integer mark [63][65]. - For industrial silicon, it is weak in the short term, waiting for a full correction [70]. - For polycrystalline silicon, it is recommended to buy on dips, hold the reverse spread of 2511 and 2512 contracts, and adjust the option strategy [75][78]. - For lithium carbonate, the inventory and warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the price oscillates strongly [83][84]. Group 4: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2512 contract closed at 85,420 yuan/ton, down 0.13%, and the index position decreased by 3,950 lots to 532,700 lots. The spot price had different changes in different regions [2][3]. - **Important Information**: European leaders supported a cease - fire, China's import of anode copper decreased in September 2025, and the import of scrap copper ingots increased [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The risk - aversion sentiment cools down, the supply - side disturbance of copper mines increases, the production is expected to decline, and the terminal consumption is weak [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips and be cautious about chasing highs; hold the inter - market positive spread and arrange the inter - period positive spread after the domestic inventory starts to decline; wait and see for options [6][7][8]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract rose 34 yuan to 2,829 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 7,177 lots to 468,900 lots. The spot price decreased in different regions [9]. - **Related Information**: Some electrolytic aluminum enterprises tendered for alumina, some alumina enterprises carried out maintenance or production reduction, and China's alumina import and export data changed in September 2025 [10][11][12]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus will become more significant, and the production - reduction scale is expected to expand in November [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price rebounds from the low due to the supply inflection point in the short term; wait and see for spreads and options [16][17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract rose 115 yuan to 21,045 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 25,548 lots to 517,200 lots. The spot price rose in some regions [19]. - **Related Information**: The Russia - US meeting was in a deadlock, the electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased, and some overseas aluminum plants had production - reduction situations [19][20][21]. - **Trading Logic**: The macro logic is the main driving factor, and overseas production cuts intensify the supply - demand tension [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly; wait and see for spreads and options [23][24][25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2512 contract rose 115 yuan to 20,515 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable in most regions and rose slightly in the southwest [27]. - **Related Information**: The warehouse receipts increased, and the import and export data of un - wrought aluminum alloy changed in September 2025 [28][30]. - **Trading Logic**: The macro sentiment improves, the cost support is stable, and the price is restricted by high social inventory and warehouse - receipt pressure [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips with the aluminum price, and the medium - term strong - oscillation trend remains unchanged; wait and see for spreads and options [32][33]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.18% to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 299 lots to 229,800 lots. The spot trading was weak [35]. - **Related Information**: The LME zinc market had a rare spot shortage on October 21 [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic price is under pressure, the overseas price is supported, and the export window is open [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see; wait and see for spreads and options [40]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 rose 0.03% to 17,175 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 1,744 lots to 88,600 lots. The electrolytic lead supply was scarce [42]. - **Related Information**: Environmental protection measures affected the transportation in Hebei, and a small - scale regenerative lead smelter adjusted its production strategy [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream consumption improves marginally, but the supply may increase [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the short position and add short on rallies; wait and see for spreads and options [44]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2512 fell 130 to 121,380 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 660 lots. The spot premium had different changes [46][47][49]. - **Important Information**: China's nickel - sulfur and wet - process intermediate imports increased in September 2025 [50]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro environment is volatile, the cost has support, but the supply is abundant and the demand is weak [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies to the upper edge of the oscillation range; wait and see for spreads; sell the wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [51][52][53]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless - steel main contract SS2512 rose 45 to 12,710 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 10,286 lots. The spot price had a certain range [55]. - **Important Information**: Some stainless - steel enterprises in Taiwan applied for an anti - dumping investigation on Vietnamese cold - rolled stainless steel [56]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price oscillates strongly but is restricted by demand [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term driven by news; buy ss2512 and sell ss2602 for spreads [58][59]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract Shanghai tin 2511 closed at 281,680 yuan/ton, up 1,050 yuan/ton or 0.37%, and the position increased by 624 lots to 65,148 lots [61]. - **Related Information**: Sino - US and China - EU trade issues were involved, and the US president's remarks on Taiwan were responded to [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Sino - US trade tension eases, the mine supply is tight, and the demand recovers slowly [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may oscillate around the integer mark; wait and see for options [65][66]. Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Some domestic southwest polycrystalline - silicon bases will gradually reduce raw - material input and stop production [68]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for industrial silicon is bearish in November, and the price is under short - term pressure but has support [69]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Weak in the short term, waiting for a full correction; no suggestion for spreads and options [70][71][72]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Important Information**: Some domestic southwest polycrystalline - silicon bases will gradually reduce raw - material input and stop production [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand balance sheet will improve, and the short - term callback space is limited [75]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Buy on dips; hold the reverse spread of 2511 and 2512 contracts with a target range; adjust the option strategy [78][79][80]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 1,240 to 77,120 yuan/ton, the index position increased by 41,864 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 873 to 29,019 tons. The spot price increased [82]. - **Important Information**: CATL's commercial - vehicle battery and energy - storage business grew [83]. - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory and warehouse receipts are decreasing, reflecting strong demand, and the price oscillates strongly [83]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly; wait and see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money put options [84].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the overall trend of rapeseed meal remains bearish. The rapeseed oil market will continue to maintain a de - stocking mode, and its price is supported, but the market is also intertwined with long and short factors. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade policies [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9834 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2307 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; that of ICE rapeseed is 629.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 0.8 Canadian dollars; and that of rapeseed is 5434 yuan/ton, up 103 yuan [2] - Spreads and positions: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is 386 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 8 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil are 8702 lots, down 1206 lots; those of rapeseed meal are - 107102 lots, down 12852 lots [2] - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 7540, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 4702, down 3000 [2] Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10020 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2390 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10113.75 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 7495.07 yuan/ton, up 12.69 yuan [2] - Basis and price differences: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 186 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is 83 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1520 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 920 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 510 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons [2] - Imports and profits: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 11.53 tons, down 13.13 tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit is 766 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan [2] Industry Situation - Inventory and开机率: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 3 tons, down 2 tons. The weekly opening rate of imported rapeseed is 3.2%, down 0.53%. The inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas is 5.2 tons, down 0.8 tons; that of rapeseed meal is 0.78 tons, down 0.37 tons [2] - Import volume: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 14 tons, up 1 ton; that of rapeseed meal is 18.31 tons, down 8.72 tons [2] Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2927.2 tons, up 99.9 tons; that of edible vegetable oil is 450.6 tons, up 30 tons [2] - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4495.7 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2] Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures slightly rose on October 21, with the most actively traded January contract up 0.10 Canadian dollars to 630.10 Canadian dollars per ton. The US Midwest soybean harvest is progressing actively, and the expected high - yield of US soybeans restricts its price. The US government shutdown leads to a lack of data and market caution [2] Rapeseed Meal View Summary - The Sino - Canadian trade negotiation has no substantial progress, and the import of Canadian rapeseed in the fourth quarter is restricted. However, the high - yield of Canadian rapeseed is basically realized, and the demand for rapeseed meal is weak due to the decline of aquaculture demand and the abundant supply of soybeans [2] Rapeseed Oil View Summary - The preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping policy for Canadian rapeseed is out, and the supply of imported rapeseed will be structurally tightened in the fourth quarter. Rapeseed oil will continue to be in a de - stocking mode, but the abundant supply of soybean oil restricts its demand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The strategic role of summit diplomacy is irreplaceable in guiding China-U.S. relations, with both leaders maintaining close communication [1] Group 1 - The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson emphasized the importance of summit diplomacy in shaping China-U.S. relations [1] - The spokesperson noted that there is no current information available regarding the specifics of the trade agreement expected at the upcoming APEC summit [1] - U.S. President Trump expressed optimism about reaching a trade agreement during the APEC summit, although he mentioned that a meeting between the two leaders may not occur [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided reports do not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Financial Derivatives**: The A - share market rebounded due to the potential easing of Sino - US relations. Treasury bond futures showed a fluctuating upward trend, and precious metals faced a significant one - day decline due to profit - taking. The freight index of container shipping to Europe was expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. [2][5][8][12] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper prices were affected by high prices and macro - factors, showing a volatile trend. Alumina prices were under pressure due to oversupply. Aluminum prices maintained a high - level shock, and the prices of other non - ferrous metals also showed different trends based on their supply and demand fundamentals. [13][18][20][24] - **Black Metals**: Steel prices needed to be adjusted through production cuts to ease inventory pressure. Iron ore prices were expected to be weak due to weak demand. The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by supply and demand and inventory changes, with different trading strategies recommended. [44][48][51][54] - **Agricultural Products**: The demand outlook for US soybeans improved, but domestic soybean and soybean meal prices were expected to be weak. Pig prices rebounded in the short term, but the medium - and long - term supply pressure remained. Corn prices showed a slight rebound. [55][59][61] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - **Financial Futures**: - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, the A - share market rose across the board, and the four major stock index futures also increased. The narrowing of the basis spread of the four major stock index futures was in a narrow - range shock. It was recommended to try to sell put options at the support level lightly or construct a bullish call spread with call options. [2][3][4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, and the net investment was 6.85 billion yuan. It was recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy. [5][7] - **Precious Metals**: The US government shutdown and geopolitical issues affected the market. Precious metals experienced a significant one - day decline due to profit - taking. In the short term, gold prices had a callback risk, and silver prices followed gold with a downward adjustment space. [8][9][10] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The freight index of container shipping to Europe showed an upward trend on the futures market. The short - term market was expected to be strongly volatile, and it was recommended to buy the main contract below 1700 points. [12][13] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The social inventory increased during the peak season, and copper prices were volatile. High prices inhibited demand, and the supply of copper ore was tight. It was recommended to focus on the support level of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan. [13][16][18] - **Alumina**: The market continued to be weak, with supply pressure and weak demand. It was expected that the spot price would continue to be under pressure, and the main contract was expected to fluctuate between 2750 - 2950 yuan. [18][20] - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices maintained a high - level shock, with stable supply, resilient demand, and a continuous decline in inventory. The main contract was expected to fluctuate between 20,700 - 21,300 yuan. [22][24] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of ADC12 was expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, with cost support and a slow decline in inventory. The main contract was expected to fluctuate between 20,200 - 20,800 yuan. [24][26] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices were volatile, with supply gradually becoming loose and demand not exceeding expectations. The short - term price was expected to be driven by macro - factors, and the main contract was expected to fluctuate between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan. [27][29] - **Tin**: Tin prices rebounded slightly due to the mitigation of the US shutdown risk. Supply was tight, and demand was weak. It was recommended to wait and see. [29][32] - **Nickel**: The nickel price rose slightly, with high production, stable demand in some fields, and increasing overseas inventory. The main contract was expected to fluctuate between 120,000 - 126,000 yuan. [32][34] - **Stainless Steel**: The price of stainless steel was weakly volatile, with cost support but weak downstream demand. The main contract was expected to fluctuate between 12,400 - 12,800 yuan. [36][38] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures market was in a narrow - range shock, with a supply - demand gap in the peak season and continuous inventory reduction. The main contract was expected to be strongly volatile between 75,000 - 78,000 yuan. [39][43] Black Metals - **Steel**: The supply of steel sheets was excessive, and production cuts were needed to reduce inventory. The demand was expected to be weak, and the cost of carbon elements was supported. It was recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and consider arbitrage operations. [44][45][46] - **Iron Ore**: The supply disturbance of iron ore weakened, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased. The demand was weak, and the price was expected to be weak. It was recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and consider arbitrage. [47][48] - **Coking Coal**: The price of coking coal was strong, with increased supply after the holiday, and the demand for replenishment increased after de - stocking. It was recommended to buy the 2601 contract at low prices and consider arbitrage. [49][51] - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was implemented before the holiday, and the second round was proposed but not yet implemented. The supply was expected to be tight, and the demand was weak. It was recommended to buy the 2601 contract at low prices and consider arbitrage. [52][54] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The demand outlook for US soybeans improved, but domestic soybean and soybean meal prices were expected to be weak. The Brazilian soybean sowing was progressing smoothly, and the supply was expected to increase. It was recommended to pay attention to the arrival rhythm. [55][57][58] - **Pig**: Pig prices rebounded in the short term due to the increase in the fat - lean price difference and the entry of second - round fattening. However, the medium - and long - term supply pressure remained, and it was recommended to hold the LH3 - 7 reverse arbitrage. [59][60] - **Corn**: Corn prices rose slightly, with an increase in port inventory. The short - term price was expected to be strong. [61]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment ratings for industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Financial Market**: After a high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is entering a phase of direction selection. The market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter. The bond market is supported by the expected implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy [11][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The decline in oil prices is due to geopolitical stability and the end of the demand peak. Methanol, rubber, polyolefins, glass, and soda ash markets have their own supply - demand characteristics and are affected by factors such as inventory and international trade [2][14][15]. - **Metals**: Precious metals have experienced a sharp correction after a rapid rise. The copper market is affected by supply shortages, and the zinc market may fluctuate within a range. The lithium carbonate market is currently in a short - term volatile state [20][21][22]. - **Black Metals**: The double - coking market is expected to oscillate at a high level, the iron ore market is expected to be oscillating and bullish, and the steel market is expected to be bullish in the medium term [24][26][27]. - **Agricultural Products**: The protein meal market is expected to oscillate, the oil market is under short - term pressure, the sugar market is expected to oscillate, and the cotton market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [28][29][30]. - **Shipping Index**: The container shipping European line market is expected to have an upward drive, and the far - month contract is slowly recovering [33]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: The net financial assets of EU member states have declined compared to previous periods, indicating a deterioration in the financial situation [6]. - **Domestic News**: The central bank will accelerate the legislation in key and emerging fields to improve the financial legal system [7]. - **Industry News**: As of the end of June 2025, the total asset management scale of the trust industry in China reached 32.43 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 20.11% [8]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The S&P 500 and the European STOXX 50 had little change. The FTSE China A50 futures rose by 1.62%, the US dollar index rose by 0.35%, ICE Brent crude oil rose by 1.18%, London gold fell by 5.31%, and London silver fell by 7.11% [10]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: After a high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is in a phase of direction selection. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and the market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose. The central bank's open - market operations increased liquidity, and the market expects the central bank to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the fourth quarter [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose at night. The decline in oil prices is due to geopolitical stability and the end of the demand peak. The reaction of OPEC in November is crucial [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose at night. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory increased. The market is volatile due to various uncertainties [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber rebounded on Tuesday. Supply pressure may increase in the later stage, and demand support is limited. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures continued to be weak, affected by factors such as crude oil prices and inventory digestion [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures continued to be weak. The market is in the process of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to consumption in autumn and policy changes [18][19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals declined significantly. The market is waiting for the China - US trade talks, and the Fed's monetary policy and the US government shutdown also affect the market [20]. - **Copper**: The copper price closed lower at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap in the long term [21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrates has increased, and the market may fluctuate within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market is in a short - term volatile state. The fundamentals are improving, but there is still a possibility of project resumption [23]. - **Black Metals** - **Double - Coking**: The double - coking market oscillated narrowly at night. The high iron - water output provides support for the price, but the possibility of blast furnace production reduction cannot be ignored [24][25]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is weak. The demand for iron ore is supported by strong steel production, and the global iron ore shipment has decreased recently [26]. - **Steel**: The steel price is stable and rising. The supply pressure is increasing, and the market is expected to be bullish in the medium term [27]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: The protein meal market oscillated downward at night. The US soybean export inspection volume increased, and the Brazilian soybean planting is progressing. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [28]. - **Oils**: The oil market is weak at night. The increase in Malaysian palm oil exports provides some support, but the market is under pressure due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade [29]. - **Sugar**: The sugar market oscillated at night. The global sugar market is in the inventory accumulation stage, and the domestic sugar market is expected to oscillate in the short term [30]. - **Cotton**: The cotton market is oscillating strongly. The US cotton market is affected by the government shutdown, and the domestic cotton market is supported by factors such as the slowdown of machine - picking progress and the rise in seed cotton purchase prices [32]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The container shipping European line market is strong in the morning. Maersk's price increase in November indicates its intention to support prices, and the market is waiting for other shipping companies' actions and the progress of the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiation [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Russia-Ukraine peace talks have hit a snag, and European countries advocate an "immediate ceasefire" at the current front line. The US government shutdown has led to a lack of economic data, and the market is digesting the situation. Domestically, A-shares have risen, but the trading volume is still low. In the short term, the stock market is expected to be volatile and weak, while in the long term, it is cost-effective to buy on dips. The bond market has also recovered [2]. - The silver squeeze has ended, and the Sino-US economic and trade relations are showing signs of easing. The precious metal prices are entering an adjustment phase, and the adjustment slope may be steeper, especially for silver [3][4]. - The copper price has slightly declined due to the rebound of the US dollar index and the weakening of market risk aversion. The supply of copper is increasing, while the demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. The copper price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [6][7]. - The aluminum price is oscillating. The macro - sentiment is stable, and the supply - demand situation is favorable. The aluminum price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [8]. - The alumina price is weakly oscillating. The winter procurement by aluminum plants in the northwest is putting downward pressure on the price. The theoretical loss of northern alumina production capacity is expanding, and the price is expected to have limited further downside [9]. - The zinc market shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. The domestic supply is increasing, while the demand is weak. The LME has a low - inventory and strong - structure. The zinc price is expected to stabilize and oscillate narrowly in the short term [10]. - The lead price is oscillating narrowly. The supply in the domestic market is regionally tight, but the import window has opened, and the supply pressure is expected to increase gradually, causing the lead price to decline [11]. - The tin price is oscillating narrowly. The supply improvement of tin ore is limited, and the downstream procurement is cautious. The tin price is expected to maintain a high - level narrow - range oscillation in the short term [12]. - The industrial silicon price is oscillating narrowly. The supply is stable, and the demand is mixed. The social inventory has increased, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [14][15]. - The lithium carbonate price is oscillating. The supply increase is limited, and the demand is improving marginally. The lithium price may adjust in the short term after the first upward rush is blocked [16][17]. - The nickel price is oscillating. The inventory is increasing, but the price is at the lower end of the range with cost support. The nickel price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [18][19]. - The price difference between soda ash and glass is expected to widen. The soda ash fundamentals are slightly better than those of glass, and both are facing inventory accumulation pressure [20]. - The steel price is under pressure. The terminal demand is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. The steel price is expected to oscillate under pressure [21]. - The iron ore price is oscillating weakly. The port inventory has increased, and the demand is weakening. The iron ore price is expected to adjust in an oscillating manner [22][23]. - The soybean meal price is weakly oscillating. The Brazilian rainy season is expected to return in November, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The soybean meal price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term [24]. - The palm oil price is oscillating widely. The production and demand of palm oil in Malaysia are increasing slightly, and the market driving force is limited. The palm oil price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [25][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas, the Russia - Ukraine peace talks are complicated. The US government shutdown has affected economic data. The market is waiting for the CPI data on the 24th and the APEC Sino - US summit at the end of the month. Domestically, A - shares have risen, the bond market has recovered, and the short - term stock market is expected to be volatile and weak [2]. 3.2 Precious Metals - The silver squeeze has ended, and the Sino - US economic and trade relations are easing. The precious metal prices have fallen sharply, and the adjustment slope may be steeper, especially for silver [3][4]. 3.3 Copper - The copper price has slightly declined. The market risk aversion has weakened, and the supply is increasing. The copper price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - The aluminum price is oscillating. The macro - sentiment is stable, the supply - demand situation is favorable, and the aluminum price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [8]. 3.5 Alumina - The alumina price is weakly oscillating. The winter procurement by aluminum plants in the northwest is putting downward pressure on the price. The theoretical loss of northern alumina production capacity is expanding, and the price is expected to have limited further downside [9]. 3.6 Zinc - The zinc market shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. The domestic supply is increasing, while the demand is weak. The LME has a low - inventory and strong - structure. The zinc price is expected to stabilize and oscillate narrowly in the short term [10]. 3.7 Lead - The lead price is oscillating narrowly. The supply in the domestic market is regionally tight, but the import window has opened, and the supply pressure is expected to increase gradually, causing the lead price to decline [11]. 3.8 Tin - The tin price is oscillating narrowly. The supply improvement of tin ore is limited, and the downstream procurement is cautious. The tin price is expected to maintain a high - level narrow - range oscillation in the short term [12]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon price is oscillating narrowly. The supply is stable, and the demand is mixed. The social inventory has increased, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [14][15]. 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price is oscillating. The supply increase is limited, and the demand is improving marginally. The lithium price may adjust in the short term after the first upward rush is blocked [16][17]. 3.11 Nickel - The nickel price is oscillating. The inventory is increasing, but the price is at the lower end of the range with cost support. The nickel price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [18][19]. 3.12 Soda Ash and Glass - The price difference between soda ash and glass is expected to widen. The soda ash fundamentals are slightly better than those of glass, and both are facing inventory accumulation pressure [20]. 3.13 Steel - The steel price is under pressure. The terminal demand is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. The steel price is expected to oscillate under pressure [21]. 3.14 Iron Ore - The iron ore price is oscillating weakly. The port inventory has increased, and the demand is weakening. The iron ore price is expected to adjust in an oscillating manner [22][23]. 3.15 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal price is weakly oscillating. The Brazilian rainy season is expected to return in November, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The soybean meal price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term [24]. 3.16 Palm Oil - The palm oil price is oscillating widely. The production and demand of palm oil in Malaysia are increasing slightly, and the market driving force is limited. The palm oil price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [25][26].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On October 21, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower due to long - position profit - taking. Market participants are focused on Sino - US trade relations. The market expects China, the world's largest buyer, to buy US soybeans again, which has boosted the recent soybean market. US President Donald Trump expects to reach a fair trade agreement with Chinese leaders and hopes China will buy soybeans before the meeting in South Korea next week. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expects to meet with Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia this week to discuss tariffs [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE Bean 1 2601 closed at 4061 yuan/ton during the day session, up 6 (+0.15%), and 4059 yuan/ton at night, down 14 (-0.34%); DCE Bean Meal 2601 closed at 2889 yuan/ton during the day session, down 5 (-0.17%), and 2861 yuan/ton at night, down 36 (-1.24%); CBOT Soybean 11 closed at 1030.5 cents/bu, down 2.25 (-0.22%); CBOT Bean Meal 12 closed at 286.4 dollars/short ton, up 1.6 (+0.56%) [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 43% bean meal is 2960 - 2970 yuan/ton, with various basis levels remaining flat compared to the previous day; in East China, prices in different regions and for different time periods have some changes such as being up 10 or remaining flat compared to the previous day; in South China, prices in some regions and for some time periods are down 20 compared to the previous day [1] - **Main Industry Data**: The trading volume of bean meal was 9.41 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared to 7.99 million tons per day two trading days ago. The inventory was 104.67 million tons per week two trading days ago, and data for the previous trading day was not available [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of bean meal is - 1, and that of bean one is 0, referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures during the day session on the report day. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]