对于当前关税战的情况，美国高盛集团警告所有美国人，到2025年年底，美国消费者可能将承担55%的关税成本。 意料之内的是，特朗普对高盛集团的报告十分愤怒。其已经在社交媒体上发文，称高盛经济师"应该换人"。但事实上，高盛集团的预估，仍旧太过乐观。 玉渊潭天指出，自今年7月起，来自美国的粮食运输船在该码头靠岸艘次已降为0。如果中国在11月中旬之前仍未重返美国市场，美国损失的对华大豆订单可 能高达1600万吨。 要知道，对于美国豆农而言，失去中国，就等于失去半个市场。 数据显示，2024年美国出口大豆金额达245.8亿美元，位居美国农产品出口首位，其中中国购买量超一半，价值126.4亿美元。 然而，随着中美贸易摩擦升级，中国已大幅减少从美国进口大豆，转而从巴西和阿根廷采购。 5月以来，同一码头每月平均有40多艘来自阿根廷、巴西、乌拉圭等南美国家的粮食运输船靠岸，这些船只90%运输的都是大豆。 而这一切的根源，都可以追溯到特朗普发动的关税战。 对于这一现实情况，特朗普已经恼羞成怒。10月14日，特朗普在社交媒体上的一番发言再次引爆了中美贸易这个火药桶。 特朗普直言中国"故意不购买美国的大豆，使美国豆农面临困难"，并将 ...

Economic Overview - The GDP for the first three quarters of 2025 is reported at 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [2] - In September, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.5% year-on-year and 0.64% month-on-month [2] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in September reached 41,971 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.0% [2] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for the first three quarters was 3,715.35 billion yuan, down 0.5% year-on-year, with real estate development investment decreasing by 13.9% [2] Market Performance - The A-share market saw an increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,863.89 points, up 0.63%, and the ChiNext Index rising by 1.98% to 2,993.45 points [5] - The communication, coal, and electric equipment sectors led the gains, with increases of 3.21%, 3.04%, and 1.54% respectively [5] - The market turnover was 17,514.91 billion yuan, showing a decline compared to the previous trading day [6] Real Estate Sector - In September, the housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities showed a mixed trend, with first-tier cities experiencing a month-on-month decline of 0.3% [3][4] - The year-on-year decline in new residential prices in first-tier cities was 0.7%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [3][4] - The real estate market remains under pressure, with buyer sentiment still cautious, although there are signs of price stabilization due to ongoing policy support [4] Monetary Policy - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for one year remains at 3.0% and for five years or more at 3.5%, unchanged since May [2] - The current low interest rates for both corporate and personal loans are expected to support economic stability [3] Future Outlook - The upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session is anticipated to provide insights into the 14th Five-Year Plan, which may influence market sentiment [1] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are expected to impact global trade and China's exports, necessitating continued efforts for economic stability and job security [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Last week, convertible bonds followed the equity market in a volume - shrinking adjustment. High - rated and low - priced convertible bonds outperformed, while high - priced convertible bonds weakened significantly. The net redemption scale of convertible bond ETFs expanded to 2382 million yuan, but convertible bonds showed anti - decline properties compared to the equity market, with the Wind Convertible Bond Weighted Index outperforming the Wind All - A Index by 1.43 pcts. - Currently, the market risk preference is running at a low level. Although Sino - US trade friction is expected to ease gradually, short - term market sentiment depends on the progress of Sino - US game before Trump's new round of tariffs on November 1st. Under uncertainty, the defensive value of convertible bonds in dividend and weighted sectors such as banks, coal, gas, and non - bank finance will be prominent. - Some hard - tech sectors need adjustment to regain cost - effectiveness and open up upward space. The "15th Five - Year Plan" is expected to release positive signals for some sectors, and sectors with outstanding performance advantages are expected to get stronger support during the third - quarter report disclosure period. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Policy Tracking - On October 17, the Ministry of Finance and other three departments issued an announcement to adjust the duty - free shopping policy for Hainan off - island passengers, expanding the scope of duty - free goods from 45 categories to 47 categories, and allowing island residents with off - island records to buy duty - free goods without limit of times under the "buy - and - pick - up - immediately" method. - The same day, the Ministry of Commerce and other five departments released a guidance on improving the overseas comprehensive service system, aiming to build a three - dimensional, full - chain overseas comprehensive service ecosystem, and put forward specific measures in aspects such as optimizing public platforms, integrating local services, extending overseas services, strengthening economic and trade cooperation guarantees, and enhancing the capabilities of overseas - going enterprises. [3][4] Secondary Market - Last week, the main equity market indexes showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell 1.26% and 3.86% respectively. Overseas, the US government shutdown and bank credit risks affected market risk preference, and the market started recession trading. - Domestically, the September price data showed that consumption promotion supported CPI, and the low base narrowed the year - on - year decline of PPI. The September export data was better than expected, mainly due to the base effect and the Mid - Autumn Festival date difference. - Affected by global risk events and Sino - US trade frictions, the risk preference of the domestic equity market further weakened, with obvious volume shrinkage and a significant adjustment in the previous strong technology sectors. Funds flowed to dividend and consumer sectors for risk - aversion. - In the convertible bond market, all major indexes declined. High - rated and low - priced convertible bonds were stronger, while high - priced convertible bonds weakened. The net redemption of convertible bond ETFs increased. The valuation of convertible bonds rebounded, and trading activity declined. [6][7][8] Primary Market - Last week, Funeng Convertible Bond and Jinlang Convertible Bond 2 were issued, and no convertible bonds were listed. Some convertible bonds were delisted due to early redemption or maturity. As of October 17, the convertible bond market's outstanding scale was 59.0529 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.3364 billion yuan from the beginning of the year. - Ten convertible bonds had a conversion ratio of over 5%. Some convertible bonds announced price adjustments, early redemptions, or were expected to trigger early redemption conditions. Two convertible bonds were approved by the CSRC and waiting to be issued, with a total of 2.677 billion yuan, and eight convertible bonds passed the review committee, with a total of 5.306 billion yuan. [30][33][34]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given reports. Core Views of the Report - The core logic of the domestic market is that after the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions last week, the asset reaction this week was weaker than in April. A-shares showed a "high-low switch" feature. Before the APEC meeting, the market was still affected by friction news. Although both sides were likely to negotiate cautiously, an unexpected escalation could trigger risks. Commodity prices were unlikely to show a trend upward. Overseas, the US government shutdown led to a data vacuum, and market concerns about the economy eased but risks remained. The Fed was expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, but the actual impact might be limited due to market pre-pricing [2]. - The RMB exchange rate was expected to remain basically stable within a reasonable range under the policy tone of "stability first", especially before the important meeting at the end of October [4]. - Stock index fluctuations were expected to intensify, but there was support below. The market was likely to be dominated by large-cap stock indices [7]. - Treasury bonds needed to focus on whether risk sentiment would recover. If risk sentiment recovered and the stock market rebounded, the bond market might not rise further. But before the Sino-US negotiation results were finalized, it was generally favorable for the bond market [9]. - The container shipping index (European line) futures were expected to continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. The main contract EC2512 was expected to be supported at 1600 points and resisted near 1750 points [11]. - Precious metals were recommended to be cautious in the short term and bullish in the medium term [16]. - Copper prices were expected to be in a high-level consolidation if the bullish factors did not ferment. For downstream enterprises, a combination strategy of "selling put options + buying futures at low prices" was recommended [19]. - Aluminum was expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina was expected to run weakly; cast aluminum alloy was expected to fluctuate at a high level [21]. - Zinc was expected to fluctuate mainly, with the long and short sides still unclear [22]. - Nickel and stainless steel were expected to fluctuate repeatedly due to prominent inventory accumulation [24]. - Tin was expected to fluctuate narrowly. From a fundamental perspective, the supply was weaker than the demand, and it was still regarded as a long position [25]. - Lead was expected to fluctuate narrowly, with limited upside space [26]. - Steel prices might rebound slightly, but the rebound height was limited due to the weak fundamentals of steel, and the possibility of subsequent decline was relatively large [28]. - Iron ore prices were under short-term pressure, and the focus of the market in the next two weeks might be on the Fourth Plenary Session and possible Sino-US talks [30]. - Coking coal and coke were expected to be treated with a volatile mindset, with coking coal in the range of (1100, 1350) and coke in the range of (1600, 1850) [32]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese were under pressure due to high inventory and weak downstream demand. If there were no unexpected stimulus policies, their prices would still be under pressure [33]. - Crude oil was expected to face downward risks in the short and medium term, with the support at $60 being crucial [37]. - LPG was relatively strong in the domestic market due to restricted arrivals, but the overall situation was still affected by the weak fundamentals of crude oil [39]. - PTA-PX was recommended to be observed in the short term, paying attention to domestic and foreign macro nodes [40]. - MEG was expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, following the macro sentiment. If there was an oversell, selling put options could be considered [46]. - Methanol was expected to fluctuate under pressure, with the price range maintaining at 2250 - 2350 [47]. - PP was under pressure due to the supply-demand imbalance and macro factors. Attention should be paid to macro trends and cost fluctuations [50]. - PE was also under pressure due to the supply-demand imbalance and macro factors. Attention should be paid to macro trends and cost fluctuations [54]. - Pure benzene and styrene were mainly affected by macro factors. Short-term observation was recommended until the macro situation became clear [57]. - Fuel oil's cracking upside space was limited [58]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil's cracking was expected to remain at a low level, with limited upward drive [59]. - Asphalt was expected to decline weakly. Short-term observation was recommended, paying attention to whether there were new demand growth points in the domestic macro meeting [62]. - Rubber and 20 rubber were expected to fluctuate weakly. RU2601 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 14600 - 15300, and NR2511 in the range of 12000 - 12500 [64]. - Urea was expected to fluctuate under pressure. Attention should be paid to new export quotas and macro sentiment [65]. - Soda ash was expected to be volatile due to the increase in supply pressure and inventory. The price was limited by high inventory but supported by cost [66]. - Glass was under pressure due to high inventory and weak demand. Attention should be paid to industrial policies [67]. - Caustic soda was expected to wait for the spot to bottom out to stimulate speculative demand. The long-term production pressure continued [69]. - Pulp was expected to continue the oscillatory pattern, and offset paper was still under pressure [70]. - Logs needed to pay attention to the marginal bullish impact on the far-month contracts under the influence of shipping sanctions [70]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee was held from October 20th to 23rd to study the suggestions for formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan". - He Lifeng had a video call with US Treasury Secretary Bezant and Trade Representative Greer, and both sides agreed to hold a new round of Sino-US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible. - The State Council Executive Meeting proposed to promote logistics cost reduction, improve the green trade policy system, and support market entities to increase grain purchases. - The US imposed tariffs on medium and heavy trucks and buses starting from November 1st, and the Trump administration adjusted its strategy to hedge legal risks. - Japan's ruling coalition was basically reached, but the future of the "Hayashi deal" was uncertain [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1265 at 16:30 on the previous trading day, down 16 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1277 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.0949, up 19 basis points. - The RMB exchange rate was expected to remain stable due to policy guidance and the influence of external factors [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated more due to external factors, but there was support below. The market was likely to be dominated by large-cap stock indices. Attention should be paid to Sino-US trade negotiations, the Fourth Plenary Session, the Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting, and the Fed's interest rate meeting [6][7]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds needed to focus on whether risk sentiment would recover. If risk sentiment recovered and the stock market rebounded, the bond market might not rise further. But before the Sino-US negotiation results were finalized, it was generally favorable for the bond market. Low-position long orders could be held in small quantities, and those with empty positions could wait for the price to fall to build positions [9]. Container Shipping European Line - The container shipping index (European line) futures were expected to continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. The main contract EC2512 was expected to be supported at 1600 points and resisted near 1750 points. Trend traders could try to go long lightly at the support of 1600 points, and arbitrage traders could pay attention to the positive spread opportunity of EC2512 - EC2602 [10][11]. Commodities Precious Metals - Precious metals were recommended to be cautious in the short term and bullish in the medium term. Silver was affected by spot shortages and short squeeze pressure, and the "232 investigation" on silver and palladium in the US also had an impact. The US government shutdown, trade tariff conflicts, and rising banking risks increased economic and financial risks, leading to an increase in the demand for precious metals as a safe-haven asset [13][16]. Copper - Copper prices were expected to be in a high-level consolidation if the bullish factors did not ferment. For downstream enterprises, a combination strategy of "selling put options + buying futures at low prices" was recommended. The downstream enterprises generally resisted high copper prices, and the destocking was the main theme at present [17][19]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum was expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina was expected to run weakly; cast aluminum alloy was expected to fluctuate at a high level. The domestic aluminum market was supported by inventory destocking, while alumina was in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy had strong followability to aluminum [20][21]. Zinc - Zinc was expected to fluctuate mainly, with the long and short sides still unclear. The export window was open, and attention should be paid to the opening of the export window and the possibility of macro upward drive [22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel were expected to fluctuate repeatedly due to prominent inventory accumulation. The supply and demand of nickel and stainless steel were affected by factors such as tariffs, production capacity, and inventory. Attention should be paid to Sino-US tariff issues and the expectation of interest rate cuts [23][24]. Tin - Tin was expected to fluctuate narrowly. From a fundamental perspective, the supply was weaker than the demand, and it was still regarded as a long position. The support was expected to be around 276,000 yuan [25]. Lead - Lead was expected to fluctuate narrowly, with limited upside space. The supply was affected by silver prices and raw material restrictions, and the demand was affected by domestic consumption and export demand. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [26]. Black Metals - Steel prices might rebound slightly, but the rebound height was limited due to the weak fundamentals of steel, and the possibility of subsequent decline was relatively large. Iron ore prices were under short-term pressure, and the focus of the market in the next two weeks might be on the Fourth Plenary Session and possible Sino-US talks. Coking coal and coke were expected to be treated with a volatile mindset, with coking coal in the range of (1100, 1350) and coke in the range of (1600, 1850). Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese were under pressure due to high inventory and weak downstream demand. If there were no unexpected stimulus policies, their prices would still be under pressure [28][30][32]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil was expected to face downward risks in the short and medium term, with the support at $60 being crucial. LPG was relatively strong in the domestic market due to restricted arrivals, but the overall situation was still affected by the weak fundamentals of crude oil. PTA - PX was recommended to be observed in the short term, paying attention to domestic and foreign macro nodes. MEG was expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, following the macro sentiment. If there was an oversell, selling put options could be considered. Methanol was expected to fluctuate under pressure, with the price range maintaining at 2250 - 2350. PP and PE were under pressure due to the supply - demand imbalance and macro factors. Attention should be paid to macro trends and cost fluctuations. Pure benzene and styrene were mainly affected by macro factors. Short - term observation was recommended until the macro situation became clear. Fuel oil's cracking upside space was limited. Low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking was expected to remain at a low level, with limited upward drive. Asphalt was expected to decline weakly. Short - term observation was recommended, paying attention to whether there were new demand growth points in the domestic macro meeting [36][37][39]. Rubber and 20 Rubber - Rubber and 20 rubber were expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply was affected by weather and inventory, and the demand was affected by factors such as tire sales, export, and automobile inventory. RU2601 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 14600 - 15300, and NR2511 in the range of 12000 - 12500 [63][64]. Urea - Urea was expected to fluctuate under pressure. The demand was weak, and the inventory increased. Attention should be paid to new export quotas and macro sentiment [65]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash was expected to be volatile due to the increase in supply pressure and inventory. The price was limited by high inventory but supported by cost. Glass was under pressure due to high inventory and weak demand. Attention should be paid to industrial policies. Caustic soda was expected to wait for the spot to bottom out to stimulate speculative demand. The long - term production pressure continued [66][67][69]. Pulp and Offset Paper - Pulp was expected to continue the oscillatory pattern, and offset paper was still under pressure. Pulp was affected by high inventory and cost support, and offset paper was affected by supply - demand mismatch [70]. Logs - Logs needed to pay attention to the marginal bullish impact on the far - month contracts under the influence of shipping sanctions [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The main futures price of soybean oil has been fluctuating and adjusting this week. China's soybean oil inventory continues to accumulate, with sufficient supply and a weak current situation. In the fourth quarter, which is the traditional consumption peak season for soybean oil, and as it is currently the most cost - effective oil, the inventory is expected to stop increasing and decline, and the futures price center of soybean oil is expected to move up slightly. It is advisable to hold long positions in the main contract of soybean oil, with support levels at 8150 - 8200 yuan/ton and pressure levels at 8400 - 8450 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil futures have been weakening. The market is worried about the possible consultation on the import control policy of Canadian rapeseed between the two countries, which suppresses the rapeseed oil futures price. The policy expectation mainly affects the market sentiment. The basis price in the spot market has risen slightly today, showing a divergence from the futures price. The inventory of rapeseed oil is continuously decreasing, and enterprises are strongly willing to support prices. The basis of rapeseed oil remains stable, and the market is in a stalemate. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the unilateral operation of the 01 contract or buy options to protect existing positions. The support level of the main 01 contract of rapeseed oil is 9800 - 9820 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 10020 - 10050 yuan/ton [4]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract of palm oil has been weakly adjusting this week. The inventory pressure in the palm oil - producing areas in Southeast Asia is not large, and the inventory is expected to enter the November production - reduction season lightly. Coupled with Indonesia's test of B50, the supply - demand of palm oil is expected to narrow in the fourth quarter, and the medium - to - long - term bullish view remains unchanged. Aggressive strategies can consider holding long positions or buying out - of - the - money call options after the price stabilizes. The support level of the main contract of palm oil is 9230 - 9270 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 9650 - 9680 yuan/ton [5]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2**: The main contract of soybean meal futures has broken through the support level and declined. The U.S. soybean crushing volume exceeds market expectations, and Sino - U.S. trade frictions continue. The current weather in the world's major soybean - producing areas is relatively good, which is suitable for the harvest of U.S. soybeans and the sowing of Brazilian soybeans, and the upward driving force of U.S. soybeans is also insufficient. China's domestic inventory of oil - pressing soybeans and soybean meal is relatively sufficient, and the supply remains loose. It is advisable to lightly short the main contract of soybean meal unilaterally or consider selling out - of - the - money call options. For arbitrage, consider going long on the oil - meal ratio of the 01 contract of soybeans. The support level of the main contract of soybean meal is 2800 - 2830 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 2960 - 2970 yuan/ton. The support level of the main contract of Bean No. 2 is 3500 - 3530 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 3675 - 3700 yuan/ton [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The sentiment of rapeseed meal has been weak. The market generally expects that the two countries may consult on the rapeseed trade policy. Rapeseed meal is facing the dual pressures of the seasonal consumption off - season and the squeeze of substitute varieties, and the terminal purchasing willingness is low. The continuous weakness of soybean meal also drags down rapeseed meal. It is necessary to focus on the results of Sino - Canadian trade negotiations and wait and see before the policy is clear. Consider going long on the oil - meal ratio of the 01 contract of rapeseed. The support level of the main contract of rapeseed meal is 2230 - 2250 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 2400 - 2430 yuan/ton [5][6]. - **Bean No. 1**: The futures price of Bean No. 1 has risen this week. The new - season soybeans in the Northeast market have basically completed the harvest, and the grain trading enterprises are actively purchasing. The high - protein soybeans are in short supply and the price is firm, while the low - protein soybeans have a weak price. With the concentrated listing of soybeans in the Northeast and the low valuation of Bean No. 1 and the reluctance of farmers to sell, the domestic soybean price is running strongly. It is advisable to hold long positions in the main contract of Bean No. 1. The pressure level of the 11 contract of Bean No. 1 is in the range of 4050 - 4080 yuan/ton, and the support level is in the range of 3900 - 3930 yuan/ton [6]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price of peanuts has remained stable over the weekend. The probability of purchasing U.S. soybeans has increased due to the new round of Sino - U.S. trade negotiations. The planting area of new - season peanuts has increased this year, and the planting cost has decreased year - on - year. Currently, the area and quantity of peanut listing are gradually increasing, with upward pressure. However, the futures price has reflected the expected increase in production, and the yield per unit in some areas of Henan is not good, so the downward space of the futures price is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the purchasing dynamics of oil - pressing plants and the new - season procurement situation. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The support level of the 01 contract is 7900 - 7550 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 8020 - 8160 yuan/ton [6]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The futures prices of corn and corn starch have shown a low - level oscillating trend this week. In the external market, there is a game between the harvest pressure in the Northern Hemisphere and the good export of U.S. corn, and the sowing in South America has started smoothly, so the overall futures price is expected to remain oscillating at a low level. In the domestic market, the new - season harvest is progressing, and the continuous rainy weather in North China has brought new differences to the market. After the futures price refreshed the low point, the market has entered a new game. Considering that the new - season harvest is still in progress, the listing pressure may not be fully reflected, and the futures price is still in the process of finding the bottom. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or pay attention to the reverse spread of the 1 - 5 spread of corn. For options, consider selling out - of - the - money call options. The support range of the 01 contract of corn is 2000 - 2020 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 2180 - 2200 yuan/ton. The support range of the 11 contract of corn starch is 2340 - 2350 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 2480 - 2500 yuan/ton [7]. - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs has been fluctuating narrowly over the weekend. Recently, the hog price has fallen below the breeding cost, and the hog - grain ratio has quickly fallen below 5:1, with significantly reduced breeding profits. Under the atmosphere of "anti - involution" to limit production capacity, the near - end slaughter of hogs has increased. The futures price of hogs has hit a new annual low. This week, the national average spot price of hogs is about 10.67 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.23 yuan/kg compared with last Friday. Before the festival, the slaughter volume rebounded significantly month - on - month, was at a high level year - on - year, and was higher than that in 2023. The near - end farmers are actively slaughtering, and the supply of standard hogs is loose. The price of 7 - kg piglets has fallen close to the slaughter cost. In terms of the futures price, the Sino - U.S. restart of negotiations is expected to make the agricultural product index oscillate weakly as a whole, and the futures price of hogs is currently at a premium to the spot price. The 01 contract refers to the range of 11000 - 13000 points. Cautious investors can hold the reverse spread of shorting the near - month contract and going long on the far - month contract, and aggressive investors can buy the 2605 contract when the price falls below the breeding cost in the medium - term and sell deep out - of - the - money call options with a strike price above 15000 points to reduce the bottom - fishing cost [8][9]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs has been generally stable with a slight weakness over the weekend. After the seasonal decline, the egg price has stabilized. Since the 10 contract is in the off - season after the Mid - Autumn Festival, the futures price has a weak follow - up to the spot price. Currently, the egg index continues to oscillate at the bottom and has reached a historical low. In October, the terminal consumption is expected to decline month - on - month, the current stocking demand has weakened, and farmers are gradually increasing the culling of laying hens, and the price of culled hens has also declined. The supply - demand pattern has marginally improved. The national spot price over the weekend is about 3.00 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin compared with last Friday. Fundamentally, the current egg price is at a relatively low level, and the inventory of laying hens is at a historical high. It is necessary to wait for farmers to increase the culling of laying hens to drive the reduction of production capacity. Aggressive investors can buy the 2512 contract unilaterally at low prices in the short - term. Since the egg index has approached the historical low level, it is advisable to be cautious about short - selling in speculative trading or buy the positive spread between the 12 - 1 month contracts at low prices [9]. 3. Summaries Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Soybean Oil 01**: The fundamental situation has not changed much, affected by the significant fluctuations of crude oil recently. The current supply is sufficient, and the supply - demand is expected to improve in the fourth quarter. The market is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is advisable to hold long positions lightly [12]. - **Rapeseed Oil 01**: The purchase of rapeseed is relatively small, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in Sino - Canadian trade relations. The market is expected to oscillate within a range, and it is advisable to wait and see [12]. - **Palm 01**: The production of Malaysian palm oil exceeds market expectations, but the inventory pressure in the producing areas is not large. Indonesia plans to promote B50, and the downward space of the palm oil price is limited. The medium - to - long - term bullish view remains unchanged. It is advisable to hold long positions [12]. - **Soybean Meal 01**: The current inventory of oil - pressing soybeans and soybean meal is sufficient, and the feed demand for soybean meal is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, with insufficient bullish driving forces. The bullish expectation lies in the continuous Sino - U.S. trade frictions. The market is expected to oscillate widely, and it is advisable to wait and see [12]. - **Rapeseed Meal 01**: The market is affected by the expected relaxation of trade policies and the weakening of demand. It is necessary to pay attention to Sino - Canadian trade policies. The market is expected to oscillate and adjust, and it is advisable to wait and see [12]. - **Corn 01**: The overall pressure environment remains unchanged, with short - term rhythm disturbances. However, the harvest is still in progress, and the pressure has not been fully released. The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to hold short positions cautiously [12]. - **Starch 11**: The price of corn, the cost end, is expected to face pressure, and the enterprise's inventory accumulation expectation puts pressure on the spot price. The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to hold short positions cautiously [12]. - **Hogs 01**: The feed price has stopped falling and rebounded, and there are policies to reduce production capacity in the industry. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is advisable to mainly wait and see [12]. - **Eggs 12**: Affected by production capacity pressure and the expectation of the consumption peak season, the market is expected to find the bottom through oscillation, and it is advisable to buy at low prices [12]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, basis of the main contracts, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including soybeans, peanuts, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock products [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Fats and Oils - **Daily Data**: The report provides the import cost data of fats and oils, including the arrival premium, CBOT soybean futures price, CNF arrival price, soybean import arrival duty - paid price, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is 0 for different shipping dates of soybeans from Brazil, Argentina, and the U.S. Gulf. It also provides relevant data for rapeseed and palm oil shipping dates [14][16]. - **Weekly Data**: The report provides the weekly data of fats and oils, including the inventory and operating rate of soybeans, rapeseed, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the inventory of related products such as soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil [17]. 3.2.2 Feed The report provides the weekly data of corn and corn starch, including the consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises, the inventory of corn by deep - processing enterprises, the operating rate of starch enterprises, and the inventory of starch enterprises [18]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - **Hogs**: The report provides the key weekly data of the hog market, including the spot price, breeding cost, profit, slaughter data, and other indicators [19]. - **Eggs**: The report provides the key weekly data of the egg market, including supply - side indicators such as the laying rate, the proportion of different sizes of eggs, the age of culled hens, and the supply of culled hens, demand - side indicators such as inventory, and profit - related indicators [20]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Hogs and Eggs)**: The report provides charts of the closing price of the main contract of hogs, the closing price of the main contract of eggs, the spot price of hogs, the price of piglets, the price of white - striped pork, the spot price of eggs, the price of chicken chicks, and the price of culled hens [22][24][25]. - **Fats and Oils**: - **Palm Oil**: The report provides charts of the monthly production, export volume, and ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil, the import parity profit of palm oil, the import volume, domestic inventory, daily trading volume, price spreads, and basis of palm oil [32][33][36]. - **Soybean Oil**: The report provides charts of the U.S. soybean crushing volume, U.S. soybean oil inventory, soybean crushing profit, domestic soybean oil mill operating rate, domestic soybean oil inventory, daily trading volume, price spreads, and basis of soybean oil [39][40][44]. - **Peanuts**: The report provides charts of the arrival and shipment volume of peanuts in domestic wholesale markets, the daily crushing profit of peanuts, the weekly raw material procurement volume of some oil - pressing plants, the weekly operating rate of peanuts, the inventory of peanuts and peanut oil in oil - pressing plants, the monthly import volume of peanuts, price spreads, and basis of peanuts [46][48]. - **Feed**: - **Corn**: The report provides charts of the spot price, closing price, basis, price spreads, port inventory, import volume, consumption by deep - processing enterprises, inventory of deep - processing enterprises, ethanol processing profit, and price difference between corn and wheat of corn [50][52][55]. - **Corn Starch**: The report provides charts of the spot price, closing price, basis, price difference with corn, enterprise operating rate, inventory, price difference with flour, and weekly profit of corn starch [59][61][62]. - **Rapeseed**: The report provides charts of the spot price of rapeseed meal, the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil, basis, inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills, inventory of rapeseed oil, rapeseed crushing volume, domestic rapeseed crushing profit, and the delivery volume of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil in coastal areas [64][66][68]. - **Soybean Meal**: The report provides charts of the flowering rate and pod - setting rate of U.S. soybeans, the inventory of soybeans in national ports, and the inventory of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills [73][75]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Fats and Oils The report provides charts of the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest,

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - factors still have a significant impact on copper prices. Although there is a slight divergence within the Fed on the future interest - rate cut pace, the probability of a rate cut remains high. Geopolitical factors and trade issues increase market risk sentiment. In the short term, macro - risks put pressure on copper prices, but the long - term supply - demand outlook for copper is optimistic. For aluminum, alumina, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate, the prices are affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and inventory, and different trading strategies are recommended accordingly [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Data - **10/13 - 10/19 Economic Data**: China's September exports and imports in US dollars increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively, exceeding expectations. The eurozone's October ZEW economic sentiment index was 22.7. The US September NFIB small - business optimism index was 98.8%. China's September CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year. The US September government budget was 198 billion US dollars [12]. - **10/20 - 10/26 Forecast Data**: Forecasts include China's October LPR, real estate development investment, fixed - asset investment, industrial added value, and consumer retail sales, as well as data from the UK, the US, and the eurozone such as CPI, PMI, and consumer confidence index [21]. 3.2 Metal Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - **Price Trend**: High - level shock adjustment, with the price range of 83,000 - 87,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic smelter maintenance continues, output is at a low level, but recycled copper supply has rebounded. High copper prices suppress domestic consumption, and new orders are limited. Export windows are open, and domestic inventory accumulation is not significant. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions on dips and conduct range - bound trading [2]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: High - level shock, with the price range of 20,700 - 21,200. - **Supply and Demand**: The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore decreased. Alumina production capacity decreased, and inventory increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly. The demand in the peak season was weak, and high aluminum prices restricted the increase in downstream processing. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to build long positions on dips. For alumina, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [2]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory decline, with the price range of 21,500 - 22,500. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic refined zinc production remains at a high level, and overseas LME zinc inventory reduction supports LME zinc prices. Terminal consumption is weak, and inventory has reached a new high this year. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound short - biased trading [2]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Price Trend**: Sideways shock, with the price range of 17,000 - 17,300. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is generally stable, and the consumption of recycled lead is weak. After the holiday, affected by production resumption and positive news, the market sentiment is optimistic, but the rise may be delayed due to Sino - US trade frictions. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips within the range of 16,900 - 17,300 and conduct range - bound trading [2]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Price Trend**: Range - bound shock, with the price range of 118,000 - 122,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Macro - factors such as Sino - US trade frictions affect nickel prices. Nickel is in a surplus pattern, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The downstream stainless steel market is weak, and the cost of nickel sulfate has increased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold short positions on rallies [3]. 3.2.6 Stainless Steel - **Price Trend**: Range - bound decline. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has been restored, and downstream demand is weak. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading [3]. 3.2.7 Tin - **Price Trend**: Overall oscillatory upward, with the price range of 265,000 - 285,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to improve, but downstream consumer electronics and photovoltaic consumption are weak. The short - term tariff increase expectation is negative for tin prices. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. 3.2.8 Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory adjustment, with the price range of 8,200 - 9,300. - **Supply and Demand**: Production and inventory have increased. The production of polycrystalline silicon has increased, and the production of organic silicon intermediates has decreased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading or wait and see [3]. 3.2.9 Polycrystalline Silicon - **Price Trend**: High - level wide - range shock, with the price range of 48,000 - 56,000. - **Supply and Demand**: The production and inventory of polycrystalline silicon have increased. The production of photovoltaic industry chain links has different trends. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading or wait and see [3]. 3.2.10 Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory stabilization, with the lower support at 72,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance. The demand for energy storage terminals is good, and the production schedule of large - scale battery cells and cathode materials has increased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to trade with caution and pay attention to the progress of mining rights in Yichun and the resumption of production of lithium mines [3].

此外，华泰证券表示，针对10月14日生效的中美互征港口费的规定，管理层表示，截至目前，公司未有 25%或以上股权由美国或中国实体或个人直接或间接持有，因为管理层认为中美港口费规定均不适用于 太平洋航运，公司经营情况正常。展望4Q，该行认为中美贸易摩擦及港口费或将影响全球船舶运力部 署和港口挂靠，造成供应链扰动，推升市场运价。预计公司4Q日均收入环比将进一步上涨，维持"买 入"。 消息面上，太平洋航运近日公告，2025年第三季度，集团的核心业务取得小灵便型及超灵便型干散货船 按期租合约对等基准的日均收入分别为11680美元及13410美元，其按年变动分别为减少15%及增加 10%，与上半年的按期租合约对等基准日均收入相比则分别为增加6%及增加10%。汇丰环球研究指，公 司在即期费率上涨时通常落后，基于租船合约与航程执行滞后效应。该行曾对潜在产能过剩持谨慎态 度，但即期费率因小型散货贸易韧性反弹，该贸易在今年首三季按年升4%。供应中断及船速减缓进一 步抵销船队增长影响。公司第四季更高的合约覆盖率，意味下半年盈利将强于上半年。 太平洋航运(02343)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.03%，报2.58港元，成交额2295 ...

此外，华泰证券表示，针对10月14日生效的中美互征港口费的规定，管理层表示，截至目前，公司未有 25%或以上股权由美国或中国实体或个人直接或间接持有，因为管理层认为中美港口费规定均不适用于 太平洋航运，公司经营情况正常。展望4Q，该行认为中美贸易摩擦及港口费或将影响全球船舶运力部 署和港口挂靠，造成供应链扰动，推升市场运价。预计公司4Q日均收入环比将进一步上涨，维持"买 入"。 智通财经APP获悉，太平洋航运(02343)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.03%，报2.58港元，成交额2295.66万港 元。 消息面上，太平洋航运近日公告，2025年第三季度，集团的核心业务取得小灵便型及超灵便型干散货船 按期租合约对等基准的日均收入分别为11680美元及13410美元，其按年变动分别为减少15%及增加 10%，与上半年的按期租合约对等基准日均收入相比则分别为增加6%及增加10%。汇丰环球研究指，公 司在即期费率上涨时通常落后，基于租船合约与航程执行滞后效应。该行曾对潜在产能过剩持谨慎态 度，但即期费率因小型散货贸易韧性反弹，该贸易在今年首三季按年升4%。供应中断及船速减缓进一 步抵销船队增长影响。公司第四季更高的合约 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry has become a focal point of global competition, highlighted by the Dutch government's forced takeover of China's leading semiconductor company, Wentech's subsidiary, Nexperia, which has raised significant concerns about the future of Chinese semiconductor firms and their supply chains [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Companies - Nexperia's Chinese team faced account freezes, disrupting fund flows and prompting Wentech to take emergency measures to ensure supply chain continuity for domestic clients [1]. - Reports indicate that Nexperia has halted salary payments to its Chinese employees, raising alarms about the company's operational stability [1]. - The Dutch government's actions are perceived as a direct threat to Wentech's future and China's innovation progress, reflecting a broader geopolitical struggle [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The incident is viewed as part of the ongoing U.S.-China trade conflict, with the Netherlands acting under U.S. influence to implement stringent measures against Chinese enterprises [3]. - The U.S. had previously pressured the Netherlands to replace Nexperia's Chinese CEO to facilitate exemptions from the "entity list," indicating a strategic alignment between the U.S. and the Netherlands [3]. - The European Automobile Manufacturers Association warned that a lack of chips produced by Nexperia could halt automotive production in Europe and the U.S., highlighting the interconnectedness of the semiconductor supply chain and the automotive industry [5]. Group 3: Response and Future Implications - The EU may exert pressure on the Netherlands to reconsider its hardline stance to protect the automotive sector, which is vital for the European economy [5]. - China has begun to formulate countermeasures, with its Ministry of Commerce and Foreign Affairs emphasizing the protection of Chinese enterprises' rights, suggesting potential retaliatory actions [5]. - The situation underscores the shifting dynamics of global supply chains and the increasing intensity of national protectionism in technology sectors [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Despite the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions last week, the export data in September remained strong. The inflation rate increased year-on-year in September, while the overall financial data continued to face pressure. Coupled with the sharp decline in the A-share market, the bond market rebounded after bottoming out, and the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active. The term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low, while the variety spread widened, and the absolute level was also low [1][3][10]. - Considering the economic situation, the probability of a bond market rebound in October is high. With the release of the third-quarter economic data next Monday, it is expected that the GDP growth rate in the third quarter will be 4.5%. Given the weak economy, the monetary policy is expected to continue to be relaxed, and the bond market rebound will continue. It is expected that the 30 - 10 spread will compress periodically, and the variety spread of 20-year China Development Bank bonds will also compress again in the short term [2][3][11]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra-long Bond Review - Last week, the bond market rebounded after bottoming out due to multiple factors. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, with the term spread narrowing and the variety spread widening [1][10]. Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook - **30-year Treasury Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 38BP, at a historically low level. With the expected bond market rebound, the 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress periodically [2][11]. - **20-year China Development Bank Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and 20-year Treasury bonds was 10BP, at a historically extremely low level. The variety spread of 20-year China Development Bank bonds is expected to compress again in the short term [3][12]. Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - As of September 30, the balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds was 23.7 trillion yuan, accounting for 15.0% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties. In terms of remaining maturity, the 30-year variety has the highest proportion [13]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (October 12 - 17, 2025), the issuance of ultra-long bonds increased slowly, with a total issuance of 577 million yuan. Treasury bonds accounted for 400 million yuan, and local government bonds accounted for 177 million yuan [20]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced ultra-long bond issuance plan for this week totals 1,181 million yuan, all of which are ultra-long local government bonds [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active, with a trading volume of 10,792 billion yuan, accounting for 11.8% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity increased slightly compared with the previous week [29][30]. Yield - Last week, the yields of various types of ultra-long bonds changed. For example, the yields of 15-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year Treasury bonds changed by -1BP, -2BP, -3BP, and -2BP respectively [37]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 38BP, 4BP lower than the previous week [46]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra-long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds and between 20-year railway bonds and Treasury bonds were 10BP and 15BP respectively [52]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30-year Treasury bond futures, TL2512, closed at 115.87 yuan, an increase of 1.67%. The total trading volume and open interest increased significantly compared with the previous week [56].