2008年那场全球金融危机，美国几乎到了"命悬一线"的地步，经济接近崩溃边缘。此时，中国挺身而出，以4万亿的经济刺激计划将美国从濒临绝境中拉了 回来。然而，没想到的是，美国在短短几年后就转身对中国挥起了经济制裁的拳头，关税、制裁、围堵，样样不落。 如今，2025年，轮到美国再次遭遇经济困境，似乎又想伸手向中国寻求"合作"。但中国的态度却清晰明确：你要水喝的姿态我看得见，但我并没有递给你水 壶。这不是冷漠，这是"记性"——你曾经得到过帮助，但今天，你该为自己的选择负责。 回顾2008年，美国金融体系的崩塌让全球经济陷入动荡。当时，中国毅然决然地踩下油门，实施大规模的经济刺激计划，向全球注入信心，避免了经济大萧 条的蔓延。中国政府宣布了总额高达4万亿人民币的救市计划，涵盖了基础设施、社会保障、医疗教育、农村建设等多个领域。这不仅仅是口号，而是实打 实的经济救援行动，成为了全球最大规模的单国经济复苏计划。结果，2009年中国GDP增长了9.2%，2010年甚至达到了10.3%。 眼看美国经济再次陷入困境，2025年4月，特朗普政府突然宣布将276项中国商品的加征关税豁免。这一举措直白地反映出美国已无法承受当前的经济 ...

Group 1: Competitive Landscape and Loan Growth - The competition in the banking industry is intensifying, posing greater challenges for rural commercial banks [2] - From 2024, the loan growth rate is expected to slow down, reflecting a cautious adjustment based on macroeconomic conditions and regulatory guidance [2] - The bank emphasizes "quality growth," focusing on optimizing loan structures and managing risks in a stable economic environment [2] Group 2: Manufacturing Loan Structure - Jiangyin Bank maintains a high proportion of manufacturing loans, with a dual focus on upgrading traditional industries and supporting emerging sectors [3] - Key sectors for manufacturing loans include textiles, machinery, high-end equipment, and intelligent manufacturing, which are critical to Jiangyin's economy [3] - The bank is increasing support for advanced manufacturing and new energy sectors, which are seen as new growth drivers for manufacturing loans [3] Group 3: Impact of US-China Trade Relations - The impact of US-China trade tensions is characterized as structural, with traditional export-oriented enterprises facing cost pressures and order fluctuations [3] - Despite challenges, companies are adapting through green transformations and expanding domestic markets, keeping overall risks manageable [3] - Emerging industries like new energy and semiconductors are experiencing growth, serving as important factors for optimizing loan structures and mitigating risks [3]

2025 年 06 月 23 日 供扰需稳，下方有限 ---2025 年豆粕期货半年度行情展望 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 我们的观点：豆粕期货价格下方空间有限。 我们的逻辑：1）供应端存在扰动因素。① 新作全球大豆供需收紧。2025/26 年度全球大豆供应增幅不及需求增 幅，库存消费比下降、供需收紧。② 美豆平衡表偏紧。2025 年美豆产量下降，因为低价驱动种植意愿下降。我 们认为，美豆产量仍有下降空间，因为产区天气不完美、单产有下调空间。美豆需求增加，内需增长抵消出口 下降。低价抑制生产、促进消费是美豆平衡表收紧的核心逻辑。③ 豆粕实际供应存在不确定性。我们暂以季节 性特点预估：年中偏宽松、四季度减少。2）需求稳中有增。2025 年 2～3 季度生猪存栏量和饲料产量预计同比 增加，低价豆粕饲用比例降幅有限。 风险提示：2025 年美豆种植面积同比增加、全球大豆供需重回宽松周期、超预期经济风险。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a favorable investment outlook with potential upside [5][10]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the structural opportunities arising in the semiconductor industry due to increasing demand for advanced computing chips and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) in China, especially following the escalation of US-China trade tensions [5][10]. - The company's current stock price reflects a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 42x for 2025, 33x for 2026, and 24x for 2027, suggesting a certain margin of safety in its valuation [5][10]. - The management's confidence in rapid growth is demonstrated through an ambitious stock incentive plan, targeting significant revenue and profit growth over the next few years [10]. Company Overview - The company operates in the electronics industry, specifically focusing on semiconductor equipment, with a significant market share in thin-film deposition equipment and hybrid bonding technology [5][10]. - As of June 23, 2025, the company's stock price is 151.70, with a market capitalization of 424.35 billion RMB [2]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1,003 million RMB in 2025, 1,306 million RMB in 2026, and 1,736 million RMB in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 45.8%, 30.2%, and 32.9% respectively [7][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 2.37 RMB in 2023 to 6.21 RMB in 2027, indicating strong growth potential [7][10]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading player in hybrid bonding technology, having successfully passed certification with major domestic manufacturers, which positions it well to capitalize on the growing demand for domestic HBM production [10]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is forecasted to reach 41 billion RMB, representing a 52% increase year-on-year, with continued strong growth expected into 2025 [10].

Report Information - Report Date: June 23, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral, with some factors leaning towards the bearish side [4] Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot prices are strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rates are at a high level. Market sentiment dominates, and short - term trading is recommended [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber show a neutral situation overall, with supply increasing, foreign spot being strong, domestic inventories rising, and tire operating rates at a high level. The basis is neutral, the inventory situation is mixed, the market is trading above the 20 - day line but the 20 - day line is downward, the main position is net short with an increase in short positions, and short - term trading is influenced by market sentiment [4] 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, while downstream consumption is at a high level [4][6] - **Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on June 20. The raw material price is strong, and the spot price is resistant to decline [6][8] - **Inventory**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year. Recently, the exchange inventory and Qingdao area inventory have not changed much [4][14][17] - **Basis**: The spot price is 13,950, and the basis is 50, showing a neutral situation. The basis turned positive on June 20 [4][35] 3. Multiple and Short Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely Factors**: Downstream consumption is at a high level, raw material prices are strong, and spot prices are resistant to decline [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Supply is increasing, and the external environment is bearish [6]

Core Viewpoint - Huikang Technology is aiming to become the "first ice machine stock" in China, with significant revenue from its ice machine and home appliance business, but faces risks due to its heavy reliance on the U.S. market and family control issues [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company reported annual revenues of 3 billion yuan, with projected net profit of 450 million yuan for 2024, marking it as a "single champion" in the ice machine sector [3]. - Revenue from 2022 to 2024 is expected to grow from 1.93 billion yuan to 3.20 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.49% in 2024 [5]. - Net profit is projected to increase from 197 million yuan in 2022 to 451 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 33.61% [5]. Product Segmentation - Ice machines are the main revenue driver, with sales expected to rise from 1.36 billion yuan in 2022 to 2.58 billion yuan in 2024, increasing its revenue share from 70.83% to 81% [6]. - The average selling price of ice machines is declining, from 435.22 yuan in 2022 to 385.9 yuan in 2024, due to market demand for smaller products and competitive pricing strategies [7]. Debt and Liabilities - The company's liabilities are projected to reach 1.82 billion yuan in 2024, a 15.96% increase from the previous period, with accounts payable being a significant contributor [8][9]. Market Exposure and Risks - The U.S. market accounts for 60% of the company's revenue, raising concerns about potential risks from U.S.-China trade tensions [9][11]. - The company plans to establish a factory in Thailand to mitigate risks associated with trade disputes and to create a dual supply chain system [14][15]. Ownership and Governance - The company is controlled by the Chen family, with significant family involvement in management and board positions, raising concerns about governance and potential conflicts of interest [16][19]. - Prior to the IPO, the company distributed 209 million yuan in dividends over two years, impacting its cash flow [22][23].

Group 1 - UBS forecasts a 6% year-on-year growth in EPS for the CSI 300 A-shares by 2025, assuming current US-China tariffs remain unchanged [1] - A-shares are expected to experience limited downside with potential upward catalysts from policy changes, long-term capital inflows, and structural reforms [1] - The "national team" may increase holdings to stabilize the market in extreme scenarios [1] Group 2 - UBS analyzed five categories of capital flows and their potential impact on market styles amid macroeconomic uncertainties [2] - Central Huijin, representing the "national team," significantly entered the market during corrections, with 70% of its investments flowing into the CSI 300 ETF in 2024 [2] - Long-term investors and insurance companies favor high-dividend stocks and bank shares, creating a synergistic effect with Central Huijin [2] - Retail and short-term investors, along with quantitative funds, are expected to drive small-cap stocks to outperform large-cap stocks [2] - Public funds are facing sluggish issuance, negatively impacting growth sectors dominated by public funds [2] - Southbound capital is anticipated to continue flowing into new economy sectors, albeit at a slightly slower pace [2] Group 3 - UBS outlines five scenarios for industry preferences and investment themes [3] - Export-oriented industries, domestic consumption, and high-dividend sectors are highlighted across various scenarios, with a focus on technology and AI [6] - Easing trade tensions could benefit export-oriented sectors and boost high-beta industries, while defensive and high-dividend stocks may attract more investor interest under adverse conditions [6] - Strong policy stimulus is expected to benefit the consumption and real estate sectors the most, while moderate policy efforts may lead to inflows into service industries and AI themes [6] Group 4 - A list of recommended stocks includes PetroChina, Yangtze Power, and others, with respective price targets and upside potential [7] - PetroChina has a market cap of 165.08 billion RMB, with a target price of 11.80 RMB, indicating a 31% upside [7] - NAURA Technology shows a significant upside potential of 37% with a target price of 566.50 RMB [7] - Tuopu has the highest upside potential at 75%, with a target price of 81.00 RMB [7]

风险提示： 理财赎回风险；转债转股溢价率压缩风险；转债正股表现不及预期。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 估值蓄力，坚守主线——转债市场点评 报告日期：2025.06.17 报告作者： 顾一格 （分析师），登记编号： S0880522120006 报告导读： 当前转债估值较4月初略有下降，性价比有所提升。建议通过布局自主可 控、内需发力和红利三条主线降低关税影响，提前布局优质底仓替代标的。 5月12日中美日内瓦协议落地以来，权益市场并未大涨，而是维持窄幅波动。 我们认为一方面是因为关税 摩擦缓和预期已经在4月8日-5月12日的反弹中被市场充分定价，另一方面，市场担心2018年中美达成协议 后美方单方面撕毁协议的情况再次发生。事实上，自中美日内瓦经贸会谈以来，美方新增多项对华限制措 施，包括发布AI芯片出口管制指南、停止对华芯片设计软件销售、宣布撤销中国留学生签证等。在刚刚结 束的中美伦敦会谈中，就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原 则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。紧张关系暂时缓和，但结构性矛盾仍未根本性解决。中美 之间的结 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for May indicates a mixed performance, with supply-side growth remaining strong while demand-side indicators show signs of slowing down, particularly in investment and real estate sectors [1][5]. Supply Side: Strong Support - In May, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly above the market expectation of 5.7% [6]. - The manufacturing sector saw a marginal slowdown, with high-tech industries maintaining robust growth rates of 8.6% [6]. - The service sector production index increased by 6.2%, driven by recovering consumer demand and increased holiday travel [9]. Fixed Asset Investment: Real Estate Drag - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 4.1%, with infrastructure and manufacturing growth rates declining [10]. - Real estate investment saw a significant decline of 10.7%, indicating ongoing challenges in the property market [10][14]. - The construction sector is under pressure due to local government debt and slow issuance of special bonds for projects [10][11]. Consumption: Accelerating Beyond Expectations - Social retail sales increased by 6.4%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 4.8%, with both goods and catering consumption reaching new highs for the year [19]. - The increase in consumption is attributed to policy effects, pre-scheduled shopping festivals, and high demand for electronics and home appliances [19][22]. Outlook: Stabilizing with Localized Pressure - The impact of tariff changes on the economy is expected to weaken, with the second quarter growth likely to exceed earlier market expectations [24]. - However, persistent low prices may continue to erode corporate profits and delay improvements in consumer expectations [24].

有外媒称，为确保管制措施落到实处，中方在稀土出口方面"引入了追踪系统"，即要求生产商提供终端 客户等额外信息。另外，中国商务部12日指出，"中国作为负责任大国，充分考虑各国在民营领域的合 理需求与关切，依法依规对稀土相关物项出口许可申请进行审查"。换句话说，中方虽说已同意恢复对 美稀土供应，但需要对买方的申请进行审批并发放许可，以防止美方在囤积足够数量稀土后翻脸不认 人。 据《南方都市报》报道，有外媒称，美国总统日前发文称，中美已达成协议，美国将对华征收55%的关 税，中国将对美征收10%的关税，并且中国将和之前一样向美国出口磁体和稀土材料。对此，商务部发 言人作出回应称，"中美经贸磋商机制首次会议，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展"。 与上次在日内瓦会谈结束后发表联合公报不同，这次中美贸易代表团在伦敦的谈判，没有发表联合公 报，这就意味着双方在这次谈判中，只是谈了一个框架，并没有达成协议，所有问题留待后续谈判再解 决。而美国总统在这时候发出上述消息，无非是向美国选民吹嘘他的"胜利"。毕竟，从他表达的内容来 看，中国的确是"吃亏了"，但事实真的是这样吗？ 事实证明，美国总统就是在吹牛，因为白宫随后做出解释称， ...