Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For both short - term and medium - term, the views on both coking coal and coke are "oscillation". The intraday views are "oscillation with a slight upward bias". The overall reference view is an "oscillation approach" [1]. - The coking coal market has a neutral and relatively loose supply - demand pattern, but post - New Year downstream winter storage and resumption expectations provide some support, and the continuous decline of thermal coal may trigger new supply adjustment measures [5]. - The coke market has a weak short - term fundamental situation, but the demand - side expectations have improved, and the market is in a stalemate between bulls and bears, with the futures main contract remaining in low - level oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Production**: As of the week ending December 26, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 740,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 tons and 20,000 tons lower than the same period last year [5]. - **Import**: As of December 20, the cumulative customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the 288 port was 26,498 vehicles, a 23.0% increase from the high base in November, which suppresses domestic coal prices [5]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: Overall supply is stable, demand remains low, the supply - demand pattern is neutral and relatively loose, and coking coal inventories in all industrial chain links have increased [5]. Coke (J) - **Production**: As of the week ending December 26, the combined daily output of coke from all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1,094,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 200 tons; the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2,265,800 tons [6]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: Both supply and demand of coke have stabilized at a low level, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The short - term fundamentals are still weak, but demand - side expectations have improved [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The terminal demand is still weak, and the fundamentals of hot-rolled coils are under pressure. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the bottom range. The willingness for winter storage is weak, and it is difficult to form a concentrated replenishment market. The macro level is still in the policy observation period, and attention should be paid to the "dual carbon" policy and its marginal impact on the steel industry [2]. - The supply of iron ore has decreased in the latest period, the demand has remained stable, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. With the late Spring Festival in 2026, there is some room for replenishment demand. The iron ore price is expected to mainly operate in the shock range [5]. - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has become more positive, but the capital's interest in the black sector has declined. Attention should be paid to the risk of a rebound in the black sector at low levels, especially in the alloy sector. The future market of manganese and silicon ferroalloys is mainly influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost - push and supply - contraction factors [10][11]. - The supply of industrial silicon has slightly increased, and the demand support has weakened, with the possibility of inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate with the market, and attention should be paid to new supply disturbances in the northwest [14][15]. - Due to the strengthening of exchange supervision, the sentiment of the polysilicon futures market has cooled. The production of polysilicon is expected to decrease further. The price of the upstream raw materials is supported by the price increase in the industrial chain, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions [17]. - The glass market is in the traditional off - season, with weak supply and demand. It is expected to remain weak in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. - The supply of soda ash is abundant, and the demand is weak. The supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly alleviated, and the market rebound is expected to be limited [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3118 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton (-0.28%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 1815 tons to 60442 tons. The main contract's open interest decreased by 47415 lots to 1.534424 million lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3160 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 3290 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Last Friday, the overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive, and the prices of finished products continued to fluctuate in the bottom range. This week, the rebar production slightly increased, the apparent demand declined, and the inventory was at a five - year low [2]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3283 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton (0.091%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 104588 tons. The main contract's open interest decreased by 6522 lots to 1.23239 million lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong remained unchanged at 3260 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The production of hot - rolled coils continued to decline, the apparent demand slightly increased, the inventory continued to decrease, and the inventory contradiction was marginally alleviated. The steel price is expected to fluctuate in the bottom range [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 783.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.58% (+4.50). The open interest increased by 13627 lots to 580700 lots. The weighted open interest was 941200 lots. The price of PB fines in Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 63.80 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.53% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume decreased in the latest period. The daily average pig iron output remained stable. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mill's inventory of imported ore increased slightly but remained at a low level in the same period of the past five years. The iron ore price is expected to mainly operate in the shock range [5]. Manganese and Silicon Ferroalloys Manganese Silicon - **Market Quotes**: On December 26, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 0.10% at 5840 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, equivalent to the futures price. The weekly price of the futures weighted index increased by 34 yuan/ton or +0.58% [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, but most factors have been priced in. Future market trends are mainly affected by the black sector's direction and cost - push factors from manganese ore [11]. Silicon Ferro - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of silicon ferro (SF603) closed down 0.35% at 5672 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a premium of 78 yuan/ton over the futures price. The weekly price of the futures weighted index increased by 36 yuan/ton or +0.64% [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The supply - demand structure of silicon ferro remains basically balanced, with marginal improvement. Future market trends are mainly affected by the black sector's direction and supply - contraction factors due to losses [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) was 8880 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.51% (+45). The weighted contract's open interest increased by 6205 lots to 402891 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged, with basis values of 320 yuan/ton and - 30 yuan/ton respectively [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The production in the southwest has reached a low level, while the operating rate in Xinjiang has increased. The demand from polysilicon has weakened, and the demand from organic silicon is relatively stable. The price is expected to fluctuate with the market, and attention should be paid to new supply disturbances in the northwest [14][15]. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) was 58955 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.97% (-1805). The weighted contract's open interest decreased by 19718 lots to 193125 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon and N - type dense material remained unchanged, and the average price of N - type re - feed material increased by 0.05 yuan/kg. The basis was - 6555 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Due to the strengthening of exchange supervision, the market sentiment has cooled. The production is expected to decrease further. The price increase in the industrial chain supports the raw material price, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of glass closed at 1047 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a decrease of 0.10% (-1). The prices of large - sized glass in North China and Central China remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 65000 cases (+0.11%) to 58.623 million cases. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 25732 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 29724 lots [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The market has entered the traditional off - season, with weak supply and demand. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1184 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, unchanged from the previous day. The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe increased by 6 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 60800 tons (-4.06%) to 1.4385 million tons, including a decrease of 68700 tons in heavy - soda inventory and an increase of 7900 tons in light - soda inventory. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 20353 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 23163 lots [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly alleviated, and the market rebound is expected to be limited [22].

目前沥青主力合约已经切换至2602合约，配合前期主力01合约综合来看，近期两周的沥青盘面表现为跌 后弱势震荡格局，震荡区间在2900-3000元/吨之间。现货端来看，同样是跌后弱势震荡，只是震荡区间 更窄，运行在2620-2650之间。可见这段胶着等待冬储的时间内现货市场心态明显企稳。 截至目前冬储的重头戏已经拉开帷幕，现实上周鑫海试探性放价3000元/吨，竟然也有少量接货，再者 就是12月15日山东地方炼厂京博释放的2900-2920元/吨，据反馈市场接货贸易商报盘意愿非常积极。该 冬储的释放成为今年正式冬储的风向标，将可预见的冬储成本框定在了2850-2920元/吨，后续要关注全 部炼厂冬储释放完成后看看总的冬储存量多少，也就能大概率锚定一季度的现货供需环境。 从基差结构上来看，2900元/吨的冬储现货成本对标12月15日BU2604合约的收盘价2995元/吨，最大基差 也就只有-95元/吨。分析后面的基差走势就尤为重要，而基差走势的波动主要看期货端，一般而言冬储 释放后现货价格会呈现阶段支撑，一直到冬储合同提货阶段（1-3月底），这段时间内是缺少现货环境 的，市场交易主要是围绕价格预期展开合同交易，而价 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Petroleum Asphalt Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: December 28, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Wang Hanxi [1] Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week (December 18 - 24, 2025), the capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China increased by 4.0% to 33.1% week - on - week, and that of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises increased by 3.7% to 31.3% week - on - week, mainly due to the increased production of Liaohe Petrochemical and the stable production of some major refineries in Shandong, East China, and South China after resuming production [4]. - From December 17 - 23, 2025, the total sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 40.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.4%. The shipments in South China and Shandong increased significantly [4][24]. - Crude oil prices fluctuated this week, with the Venezuela situation remaining deadlocked. The asphalt fundamentals had stable shipments, and the asphalt price fluctuated within a narrow range. The upside is still limited by the off - season [4]. - The weekly average of domestic asphalt processing theoretical profit was - 339 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/ton. The weekly average price of domestic asphalt was 3049 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The spot price of the asphalt market fluctuated between 3044 - 3056 yuan/ton [4]. - Investment strategy: Sell put options (2800) and sell call options (3200) [4] Summary by Directory 1. Price & Spread - **Cost Structure**: The cost of asphalt is affected by various factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma瑞 crude oil. Different raw materials have different asphalt yields, for example, Ma瑞 crude oil has an asphalt yield of 55% - 60% [7]. - **Futures**: There are data on the disk price, trading volume, and open interest of asphalt futures, and the price trends of Brent, WTI, and SC are presented [11]. - **Spot**: The prices of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions and the price differences between regions are shown, along with the production gross profit of asphalt in Shandong [12]. - **Spread**: Data on the basis and monthly spread of asphalt in different regions are provided, including the basis in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, and the monthly spread between different contract months [15][16] 2. Fundamental Data Demand - **Consumption Distribution**: The demand for asphalt mainly comes from road markets (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproofing markets, ship - fuel markets, coking markets, and export markets. Seasonal factors also have an impact, but the volume of some markets is small and the influence is limited [20]. - **Shipment Volume**: From December 17 - 23, 2025, the total sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 40.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.4%. The shipments in South China and Shandong increased significantly [4][24]. - **Capacity Utilization**: From December 17 - 23, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic sample modified asphalt enterprises was 7.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 0.8% [24]. Supply - **Supply Pattern**: The supply of asphalt comes from domestic refineries (including state - owned and local refineries) and imports (mainly from South Korea and Singapore). Key indicators include inventory, start - up rate, production profit, maintenance plan, and monthly production schedule [26]. - **Production, Maintenance, and Raw Materials**: The total planned asphalt production in China in January 2026 is 2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.8 tons (7.3%) and a year - on - year decrease of 27.6 tons (12.1%). As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of 54 asphalt sample refineries was 62.4 tons, a 3.0% decrease from December 22. The total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 107.1 tons, a 3.0% increase from December 22 [29]. - **Start - up Rate**: There are data on the weekly start - up rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions, including the overall start - up rate and the start - up rates in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, Central China, South China, Southwest China, and Northeast China [32][33][35] - **Inventory**: There are data on the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries and the asphalt market in different regions, including the overall inventory rate and the inventory rates in North China, Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, Northeast China, and South China [40]

Report Overview - Report Title: Petroleum Asphalt Weekly Report - Report Date: December 28, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Hanxi - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0019174 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F3082452 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the winter storage period, the spot price of asphalt remained low and stable. The price of asphalt fluctuated within a narrow range, and the upside was still limited by the off - season [4]. 3) Summary by Directory Overview - **Supply**: From December 18 - 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 33.1%, a 4.0% week - on - week increase. The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 31.3%, a 3.7% week - on - week increase, mainly due to the production increase of Liaohe Petrochemical and the stable production of some major refineries in Shandong, East, and South China after resuming production [4]. - **Demand**: From December 17 - 23, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 40.4 tons, a 15.4% week - on - week increase. Shipments increased significantly in South and Shandong China. In South China, low - price support led to good shipments, while in Shandong, downstream storage demand increased, and refineries fulfilled previous contracts [4]. - **Valuation**: The average weekly theoretical processing profit of domestic asphalt was - 339 yuan/ton, a 16 yuan/ton week - on - week increase. The average weekly price of domestic asphalt was 3049 yuan/ton, a 25 yuan/ton week - on - week decrease. The spot price fluctuated between 3044 - 3056 yuan/ton. Six regions saw price drops of 0.1% - 4.8%, with South China having the highest drop of 4.8%. Only Shandong had a price increase due to reduced available spot resources and good stocking enthusiasm [4]. - **Strategy**: For options, sell put (2800) and sell call (3200) [4]. Price & Spread - **Cost Structure**: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as crude oil indices (Brent, WTI, etc.), imported diluted asphalt, and raw material supply. Different crude oils have different asphalt yields, e.g., the yield of Ma Rui crude oil is 55% - 60% [7]. - **Futures - Disk Price and Trading Positions**: Data on the disk price and trading positions of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oils are presented [11]. - **Spot - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt and Ma Rui Crude Oil**: The prices of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions and the production profit margin in Shandong are shown [12]. - **Spread - Basis and Calendar Spread**: Data on the basis in Shandong and the calendar spread of different futures contracts are provided [17][15]. Fundamental Data - **Demand**: Asphalt demand comes from road construction, maintenance, waterproofing, shipping fuel, coking, and export markets. Seasonal factors have a limited impact. From December 17 - 23, 2025, the shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises increased by 15.4% week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 7.1%, a 0.6% week - on - week decrease and a 0.8% year - on - year increase [20][24]. - **Supply**: - **Production, Maintenance, and Raw Materials**: In January 2026, the total planned asphalt output in China is 2 million tons, a 7.3% month - on - month decrease and a 12.1% year - on - year decrease. As of December 25, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample refineries decreased by 3.0%, and the inventory of 104 social warehouses increased by 3.0% [29]. - **开工率**: Data on the weekly开工率 of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions are presented [31][33][35]. - **Inventory**: Data on the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries and the asphalt market in different regions are provided [40].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The black market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season. The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to fluctuate upwards, and the iron ore 05 contract remains in a wide - range high - level oscillation. It is recommended to hold long positions for mid - term trading [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and demand**: This week, rebar and hot - rolled coil production increased, the total output of five major varieties decreased, and overall inventory continued to decline. Rebar's apparent demand decreased, while hot - rolled coil's increased, but the overall apparent demand of the five major varieties declined. Due to the significant decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak, steel mill production is expected to continue to decline slowly [2] - **Cost support**: Recently, coal and coke prices have rebounded significantly, raising the cost support for the futures market [2] - **Technical analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract briefly fell below the oscillation range and then rebounded quickly. It has not broken out of the recent oscillation range or formed a downward breakthrough [2] - **Operation suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading [2] - **Data details**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices showed different changes; for example, the rebar main contract closing price was 3127 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan (- 0.29%) from the previous day and up 2 yuan (0.06%) from last week [2] - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill rebar production was 181.68 million tons, up 2.90 million tons (1.62%) from last week; hot - rolled coil production was 291.91 million tons, down 16.80 million tons (- 5.44%) [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major varieties was 872.56 million tons, down 33.91 million tons (- 3.74%) from last week [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the overall output and apparent demand of five major steel products continued to decline. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, molten iron production is likely to continue to decline seasonally. Steel mill production cuts suppress raw material prices. The pre - holiday restocking demand will come later this year [3] - **Supply**: Global shipments remain at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventory suppresses the futures price. The market has fully digested the building steel production license system and the inclusion of steel products in export license management [3] - **Technical analysis**: The 05 contract has not broken out of the wide - range high - level oscillation [3] - **Operation suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading [3] - **Data details**: - **Prices**: The DCE iron ore main contract settlement price was 778.5 yuan/dry ton, down 1.0 yuan (- 0.13%) from the previous day and up 1.0 yuan (0.13%) from last week [4] - **Shipments**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1703.9 million tons, down 60.2 million tons (- 3.41%) from last week; Brazilian shipments were 747.6 million tons, down 71.9 million tons (- 8.77%) [4] - **Inventory**: Port inventory totaled 15512.63 million tons, up 81.21 million tons (0.53%) from last week [4] 3. Industry News - Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the daily price limit range of coke and coking coal futures contracts to 10% starting from the settlement on December 30, 2025, while keeping the trading margin level unchanged [6] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need to strengthen coal supply and promote the construction of strategic reserves [6] - Mysteel research shows that the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is - 18 yuan/ton [6] - As of the week of December 25, rebar production increased for two consecutive weeks, factory inventory increased, social inventory decreased for the eleventh consecutive week, and apparent demand decreased [6] - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples decreased by 2.4% to 84.2% this week [7] - As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased by 0.11% month - on - month, and the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased [7] - The chairman of the Japan Iron and Steel Federation believes that China's steel product export license requirements cannot effectively suppress steel exports or boost steel prices [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate within the bottom range. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation. The prices of finished products are under short - term pressure due to export license management policies but are expected to gradually digest policy disturbances. The willingness for winter storage is weak, and the macro level is in a policy observation period [3]. - For iron ore, the recent market environment is relatively mild. The decline in hot metal production has reduced marginal pressure. The late Spring Festival in 2026 has postponed the restocking time, and the low inventory of steel mills provides restocking demand expectations. Iron ore prices are expected to mainly operate within the oscillation range [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the market macro - sentiment fluctuations have temporarily ended, and the black chain index has rebounded. The future market contradictions lie in the direction of the black sector, the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Attention should be paid to the "dual - carbon" policy and possible emergencies in the manganese ore market [8][9]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term price rebounds to fill the gap and fluctuates strongly. The supply decline depends on the production rhythm in the northwest. The demand from polysilicon weakens, and the demand from silicone is relatively stable in the short term. The price is expected to follow the market fluctuations, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [12]. - For polysilicon, the production is expected to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve. Although the upper - middle reaches are raising prices, the futures price is still unstable, and attention should be paid to spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [16]. - For glass, the demand recovery is weak, and the market is in a supply - demand relaxation pattern. In the short term, the market is expected to continue the narrow - range oscillation [19]. - For soda ash, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is weakening. The price decline space is limited due to corporate losses. The market rebound is expected to be limited, and short positions can be considered [21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products a. Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3127 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.28%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2057 tons to 58627 tons, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 15590 lots to 1.581839 million lots. In the spot market, the rebar price in Tianjin was 3170 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Shanghai it was 3310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3280 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (- 0.15%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 295 tons to 104588 tons, and the main - contract open interest increased by 9350 lots to 1.238912 million lots. In the spot market, the hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3260 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Shanghai it was 3280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. b. Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar production increased slightly this week, apparent demand declined, and the inventory level was at a five - year low. For hot - rolled coils, production continued to decline, apparent demand strengthened slightly, inventory continued to decrease, and inventory contradictions were marginally alleviated. Beijing's relaxation of housing purchase policies may have a demonstration effect on other first - tier cities and help digest real - estate inventory. Overall, terminal demand is weak, and steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [3]. Iron Ore a. Market Information - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2605) was 778.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.13% (- 1.00). The open interest increased by 13387 lots to 567100 lots, and the weighted open interest was 932500 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 63.96 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.59% [4]. b. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased in the latest period. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both declined, while those from non - mainstream countries rebounded slightly. The near - end arrivals decreased. In terms of demand, the daily average hot - metal production was stable at 226.58 tons. The profitability of steel mills improved. Port inventories continued to accumulate, and steel mills' imported ore inventories increased but were still at a five - year low. Iron ore prices are expected to mainly operate within the oscillation range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon a. Market Information - On December 25, the manganese silicon main contract (SM603) fluctuated, closing up 0.24% at 5846 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a converted basis of 5910 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium of 64 yuan/ton over the futures. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed up 0.64% at 5692 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium of 8 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. b. Strategy Viewpoints - The macro - sentiment fluctuations have ended, and the black chain index has rebounded. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, but most factors have been priced in. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, and supply has declined due to losses. Future market contradictions lie in the black sector's direction, manganese ore cost - push for manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon supply contraction due to losses [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon a. Market Information - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract (SI2605) was 8835 yuan/ton, down 0.28% (- 25). The weighted open interest decreased by 1468 lots to 396686 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 365 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 15 yuan/ton [11]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract (PS2605) was 60760 yuan/ton, up 4.22% (+ 2460). The weighted open interest increased by 2097 lots to 212843 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were unchanged. The basis was - 8410 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading rules for polysilicon futures contracts from December 29, 2025 [13][14][15]. b. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: The short - term price rebounds to fill the gap and fluctuates strongly. Supply decline depends on the northwest production rhythm, and polysilicon demand support weakens. The price is expected to follow market fluctuations, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [12]. - Polysilicon: Production is expected to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory pressure is difficult to relieve. Although the upper - middle reaches are raising prices, the futures price is unstable, and attention should be paid to spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [16]. Glass and Soda Ash a. Market Information - Glass: The glass main contract closed at 1048 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, up 1.95% (+ 20). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1020 yuan (unchanged), and in Central China it was 1060 yuan, down 20 yuan. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 58.558 million cases, up 0.57% (331000 cases). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 13175 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 13150 short positions [18]. - Soda ash: The soda ash main contract closed at 1184 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, up 0.77% (+ 9). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1137 yuan (unchanged). The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.4993 million tons, up 0.57% (5000 tons), with heavy - soda inventory down 18800 tons and light - soda inventory up 23800 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 11632 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 13318 short positions [20]. b. Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: Demand recovery is weak, and the market is in a supply - demand relaxation pattern. In the short term, the market is expected to continue the narrow - range oscillation [19]. - Soda ash: Downstream demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and cost support is weakening. The price decline space is limited due to corporate losses. The market rebound is expected to be limited, and short positions can be considered [21].

一、行情回顾 昨天日盘，螺纹钢盘面延续窄幅波动，主力2605合约收盘价格为3136元/吨，小幅上涨0.26%。 本周全国建材产量回升4.41万吨至355.78万吨，社库减少34.01万吨至474.89万吨，厂库增加1.93万吨至291.58万吨，建材表需回升7.4万吨至252.66 万吨。 三、机构观点 恒泰期货：供给端，淡季钢材需求疲软叠加钢厂利润不佳等因素限制了钢厂生产积极性，部分钢厂主动选择减产，高炉产能利用率下降，日均铁 水产量续降。需求端，淡季水泥、混凝土发运开工速度趋缓，终端建筑需求回落，螺纹需求边际下滑，供需双降，库存仍呈现去化格局。短期宏 观预期影响减弱，需求端仍受制于疲弱的房地产数据，基建托底效果不明显，制造业板块用钢需求滑落，钢材基本面供需双弱，预计短期钢材继 续交易淡季基本面逻辑，冬储为边际变量。估值来看，盘面价格处于低估值，预计短期钢材交易低估值背景下的震荡整理行情。 铜冠金源期货：宏观面，北京调整住房限购政策，市场反应有限。供应端，受盈利低迷及环保限产影响，铁水与热卷产量明显收缩，螺纹产量偏 低。需求端，季节性走弱压力仍存，螺纹去库尚可，热卷库存压力较大。钢材供需双弱，宏观政策预期与 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished steel products is expected to move downward with a weak trend, and the price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short - term with an oscillatory pattern, paying attention to the upper pressure [1][4] - The finished steel market is expected to be in an oscillatory and consolidating state, and the aluminum market is expected to have short - term high - level oscillations, focusing on macro - guidance [3][4] Group 3: Summary of Different Product Sections Finished Steel - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - The finished steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a pessimistic market sentiment, and the price center has been continuously moving down. The winter storage this year is sluggish and provides little support for prices [3] Aluminum - Macroscopically, both domestic and international sentiment is positive, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased, which is beneficial to aluminum prices and the non - ferrous metal sector [2] - The alumina market has a loose supply - demand pattern, with weak spot prices and cautious market sentiment. After the resumption of production in some enterprises in Guizhou and Guangxi, the production capacity has recovered, but the recovery in Henan is limited due to environmental protection. The weekly output increased by only 0.5 million tons, and the inventory increased by 0.5 million tons [3] - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.5%. The operating rates of different sub - industries vary: the primary aluminum alloy industry remained stable at 60%; the aluminum plate and strip industry remained at 65.0% but was under pressure; the aluminum cable industry decreased slightly by 0.4% to 62%; the aluminum profile industry decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 51.6% [3] - On December 22, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 600,000 tons, a 4,000 - ton increase from the previous Monday. In late December, the supply pressure of aluminum ingots increased, and the demand was affected by environmental protection control and high prices, with the inventory expected to increase slightly [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **成材**: The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center. The view is that it will operate in a volatile and consolidating manner [3][4]. - **碳酸锂**: The main contract of lithium carbonate is in a high - level shock. It is necessary to be cautious and avoid the risk of chasing up. Focus on the marginal changes in supply and demand [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **成材** - **Production Impact**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown schedules, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [3]. - **New House Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [3][4]. - **Market Situation**: The finished products market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a pessimistic market sentiment. The price has reached a new low, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [4]. - **View and Attention Points**: The view is that it will operate in a volatile and consolidating manner. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. **碳酸锂** - **Futures Market**: Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 124,720 yuan/ton, with trading volume increasing to 949,000 lots and positions decreasing to 647,400 lots. The long - short ratio continued to rise, and the net short position of the main contract continued. The registered warehouse receipts increased. The basis of the main contract was - 23,220 yuan/ton (a near - one - year low), and the futures price deviated significantly from the fundamentals due to capital speculation [3]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of electric carbon was 101,500 yuan/ton and continued to rise. Upstream lithium salt factories mainly focused on long - term contracts with few spot orders; downstream material factories were on the sidelines at high prices, mainly for rigid demand procurement and long - term contract supply; traders had light transactions [3]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, raw material prices rose, strengthening cost support. The weekly operating rate and weekly output of lithium carbonate both increased by 0.21% week - on - week, with a steady supply release but a slowdown in growth. On the demand side, short - term demand decreased slightly while long - term resilience remained unchanged. The production of ternary and iron - lithium decreased week - on - week, and inventory continued to decline. The production of power cells decreased slightly week - on - week but increased by 30.34% year - on - year. New energy vehicle sales fluctuated significantly in the short term, with a stable month - on - month penetration rate and a high year - on - year increase [4]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample decreased by 0.9% week - on - week, continuing to decline but at a slower pace. The total inventory days decreased by 1.1% week - on - week. There was a phased inventory build - up in other links, and inventory shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end. Social inventory showed a phased build - up, with a year - on - year decrease of 54.71%. The overall industry inventory remained tight [4]. - **Policy and Market Sentiment**: Regulatory tightening is clear. Measures such as trading limits on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the promotion of the exit of backward production capacity in 2025 will intensify market fluctuations in the short term. The Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference form a coordinated positive, providing support for the long - term supply - demand pattern. The market sentiment forms a "expectation - price - sentiment" cycle, and risks such as insufficient downstream acceptance and over - bought pullbacks need to be vigilant [5]. - **View and Attention Points**: The view is high - level shock. It is necessary to be cautious and avoid chasing up. Focus on marginal changes in supply and demand. Later, attention should be paid to the implementation of macro - policies, the progress of capacity release, the resilience of downstream demand, the slope of sample inventory decline, and capital and sentiment [5].