Core Insights - Brazil's establishment of a tax office in Beijing is a strategic move aimed at reshaping South America's geopolitical landscape and reducing U.S. influence [1][5][12] Group 1: U.S.-Brazil Relations - The U.S. government, under Trump, threatened to increase tariffs on Brazilian goods from 10% to 50%, which is a significant escalation [3][5] - This threat was intended to pressure Brazil, but instead, it strengthened President Lula's resolve to pursue an independent strategy [5][11] Group 2: Economic Strategy - The tax office is part of a broader strategy to attract Chinese investment and facilitate the ambitious "Two Oceans Railway" project, which aims to connect Brazil's Santos port to Peru's Pacific port [7][9] - The railway project is expected to generate over $100 billion in economic benefits annually and significantly alter trade routes in South America [9][12] Group 3: China-Brazil Cooperation - Brazil's trade with China reached $188.1 billion in 2024, compared to $92 billion with the U.S., indicating a shift towards deeper economic ties with China [13] - The establishment of the tax office signals Brazil's readiness to eliminate technical barriers for Chinese investment, enhancing cooperation [10][16] Group 4: Political Implications - The move to establish the tax office and pursue the railway project demonstrates Brazil's ambition to assert its leadership in South America and reduce dependency on U.S. trade routes [12][16] - However, Brazil faces internal political instability and external pressures from the U.S., which could impact the success of these initiatives [13][14]

全球地缘政治剧烈变动，让2025成为宏观对冲基金"大年"——全球最大对冲基金公司桥水的旗舰宏观对冲基金Pure Alpha，在今年上半年收获17% 丰厚回报。另一家知名宏观对冲基金公司EDL Capital的全球机会策略基金，同期回报率更高达26%。 7月24日，美国桥水首席投资官在更新2025二季度市场观点时，在开篇就强调：当前世界正经历的格局转变，是桥水创立以来最具颠覆性的变化。 他还指出，桥水在分析投资者面临的"新常态"时，将"新的地缘政治与宏观经济范式"列为最关键的三组核心变量之一，放在首位。 为了帮大家学会从市场视角读懂地缘政治，我们邀请海外资管机构Clocktower的首席策略师王凯文，担任8月17日在上海举行的Alpha季度闭门私 享课主讲嘉宾。在此次闭门课中，王凯文老师将深入解析地缘政治投资分析的核心方法论与约束限制分析框架，分享他提炼出的五条最关键经验 教训，帮到场的Alpha会员和见闻大师课会员们从全球市场的角度读懂地缘政治，看清地缘政治背后的主导逻辑与关键趋势，前瞻大类资产中长 期走势，助力个人的关键决策。 举行这场以"地缘"为主题的闭门课，源自很多用户的强烈要求：今年以来的市场变化，让 ...

吴洁贞表示，当前地缘政治及贸易保护为工商界带来许多不确定性，作为香港具代表性的商会，香港中 华厂商联合会须进一步提升应变力与前瞻性，协助业界排解忧困、把握新机遇。她将运用过往的经验， 协助深化政策倡议、优化服务与拓展国际网络，助力业界驾驭变革浪潮，为香港及国家高质量发展作出 贡献。 据悉，吴洁贞在加入香港中华厂商联合会前，于香港海关服务近30年，历任多个执法及管理岗位，涵盖 保障税收、缉毒、知识产权保护、进出口管制及反走私执法等领域。期间，她亦曾被借调至香港财经事 务及库务局及保安局，参与多项政府政策研究及制定工作。2019年，吴开始出任助理关长，负责领导情 报及调查处；2020年至2024年，她接掌边境及港口处，着力统筹及推行所有出入境管制站的各项海关管 制及清关便利政策。 厂商会会长卢金荣对吴洁贞的加入表示热烈欢迎："吴女士拥有丰富的跨领域知识、宏观的政策视野与 卓越的领导才能，尤其在贸易政策及跨境协作方面具备深厚的专业经验，必将为厂商会注入崭新的思维 动力，推动会务发展迈向新里程。我深信，在她的带领下，秘书处将更高效地支援会员应对瞬息万变的 贸易环境，进一步强化厂商会作为'赋能者'与'联通桥梁'的角色， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The black varieties in the domestic market have risen significantly, bringing a positive atmosphere to the energy and chemical industry. The "Notice on Promoting the Stable and Orderly Supply of Coal" issued on July 20th has made coal and coal - chemical products favored by the market. The rise in futures prices has led to concentrated replenishment in the industrial chain, and the polyester industry has seen a reduction in inventory pressure and support for near - month contracts of polyester raw materials [1][2]. - The oil market is currently in a stage of coexistence of long and short factors. Crude oil supply is gradually increasing, while the strength of diesel continues. Different energy and chemical products have different trends, with some being affected by cost, some by supply - demand relationships, and others by macro - environment and geopolitical factors [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Overview - The energy and chemical market was boosted by key factors such as "anti - involution" and "stable growth" on Tuesday. Iron ore futures reached a five - month high, and several glass and soda ash varieties hit the daily limit. The US Treasury Secretary will hold the third - round talks with China next week, possibly discussing China's purchase of crude oil from Russia [1]. 2. Sector Logic - The sharp rise of domestic black varieties has brought benefits to the energy and chemical industry. The "Notice on Promoting the Stable and Orderly Supply of Coal" has made coal and coal - chemical products popular. The rise in futures prices has led to replenishment in the polyester industry, with some enterprises having a filament sales - to - production ratio of up to 1000%, reducing inventory pressure and supporting polyester raw material near - month contracts [2]. 3. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - It operates under pressure at high levels, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. The current situation is a balance between strong refinery operations and supply pressure, with oil prices expected to fluctuate. The Brent first - line monthly spread has dropped from a maximum of $1.77/barrel on June 19th to $0.8/barrel [1][8]. LPG - The support from the cost side is weakening, the fundamental situation of supply - demand remains loose, and the PG futures may oscillate weakly [3]. Asphalt - The spot price of major producers has fallen, and the high - valued asphalt futures price has declined following crude oil. The expected increase in heavy - oil supply and the accumulation of Asian crude oil floating storage are putting pressure on asphalt prices. The current asphalt is over - valued compared to other products, and its price is expected to decline [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - There is a large downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices. The expected increase in heavy - oil supply and the decrease in power - generation demand are negative factors [10]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - It follows crude oil and oscillates weakly. The supply is expected to increase and demand to decline, and it is affected by green - fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution [12]. Methanol - Boosted by the coal sector, methanol oscillates and strengthens [3]. Urea - There is a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term sentiment is boosted, and exports support the market. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. Ethylene Glycol - Supported by the macro - environment and the rise of the coal - chemical sector, it is affected by the restart of domestic devices and the concentration of incoming goods [18][19]. PX - Although the cost raw materials are weak, the domestic commodity sentiment is warm. It lacks upward drivers and is expected to oscillate [13]. PTA - It has limited drivers and is affected by cost and macro - sentiment. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening, and processing fees are under pressure [14]. Short - Fiber - There are limited industrial contradictions, and it follows cost fluctuations. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, and the inventory has slightly increased [21]. Bottle Chip - The increase in polymerization cost supports the valuation. It is expected to follow cost fluctuations [22]. PP - Driven by factors such as stable growth, infrastructure expectations, and the rise of coal, it oscillates and rises [3]. Propylene - It had a good first - day performance and may oscillate after a significant increase [3]. Plastic - Supported by factors such as stable growth in the petrochemical industry, infrastructure expectations, and coal, it oscillates and strengthens [3]. Pure Benzene - The balance sheet has improved, but port inventory has started to accumulate again. It is expected to oscillate horizontally [14]. Styrene - It follows the market sentiment and may oscillate strongly in the short term. The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and the port inventory has increased [17][18]. PVC - The expectation of cost increase is strong, and it is cautiously optimistic in the short term. However, the medium - and long - term fundamentals are under pressure [35]. Caustic Soda - Driven by strong expectations but weak in reality, it has a weak rebound. The market sentiment is warm, but the spot price has reached a peak [36][37]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring (1) Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.84 with a change of 0.01, and PX's 1 - 5 - month spread being 40 with a change of - 20 [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has its own basis value, change, and number of warehouse receipts. For example, the basis of asphalt is 236 with a change of 38, and the number of warehouse receipts is 82300 [39]. - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: There are different inter - variety spread values and changes, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 438 with a change of - 84, and the 1 - month TA - EG spread being 331 with a change of - 26 [40].

Group 1 - The CEO of Texas Instruments (TXN.O) stated that tariffs and geopolitical factors are disrupting and reshaping global supply chains [1]

前言 7月21日，美国财长贝森特在一档电视节目中公开喊话，要求中方在即将到来的第三轮中美谈判中答应两件事，否则将面临高达100%的二级关税。 除此之外，贝森特还对欧盟各国施压，要求他们跟随美国一起行动，但换来的却是这些盟友无声的沉默。 那么贝森特要求的这两件事是什么？中方又是如何应对的？ 整个谈判的气氛是积极友好的，双方都希望通过合作来缓解贸易摩擦，为全球经济复苏贡献力量。 这些谈判不仅有助于推动中美关系的稳定，也对全球经济的稳定与发展起到了积极作用，即使双方存在不少分歧，双方也一直致力于通过平等、互利的方式 解决问题。 但现在贝森特的突然发难，无疑是在破坏这种谈判的良好气氛，他在谈判中将一个完全与双边贸易无关的问题——石油进口，提出作为中美谈判的前提条 件，这不仅让人觉得不合时宜，更像是一种不合理的干涉。 俄罗斯和伊朗作为主权国家，他们和中国之间的石油贸易是基于平等互利、相互尊重的原则进行的，完全符合国际法和国际准则，美国没有权利要求中国在 没有任何依据的情况下放弃这种正常的贸易往来。 贝森特的要求 7月21日，美国财政部长贝森特在一档电视节目中提出了两个让人难以理解的要求：要求中国在即将举行的第三轮中美谈 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical market is expected to experience volatile trends, with attention on policy variables and cost - side fluctuations. There is a divergence between crude oil and chemicals, as well as between futures and spot markets, making it difficult for the energy and chemical sector to have a clear - cut trend. [1][4] - Crude oil supply pressure persists, and geopolitical disturbances should be monitored. The strong reality of high refinery operations and the weak expectation of supply pressure are in a state of balance, leading to an oscillating oil price. [8] - Domestic chemical products have shown strong performance, especially coal and coal - chemical products with high self - sufficiency rates. However, the increase in chemical futures prices has not been followed by spot prices, and the basis of chemical products has weakened. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure remains, and geopolitical disturbances should be noted. The high refinery operations in domestic and foreign markets and the supply pressure are in a state of balance, resulting in an oscillating oil price. [8] - **LPG**: The support from the cost side is weakening, and the fundamental situation of ample supply remains unchanged. The PG futures may experience weak oscillations. [3] - **Asphalt**: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely over - valued stage. [3] - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil**: There is significant downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices. [3] - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillating and weakening trend of crude oil. [3] - **Methanol**: The operating load in the inland region remains low, and methanol prices will oscillate. [3] - **Urea**: Supply is strong while demand is weak. Although sentiment is temporarily boosted and exports support the market, urea prices will oscillate in the short term. [3] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventories have decreased, and the expectation of inventory accumulation has been postponed. [3] - **PX**: The downward space is limited, and it will seek a direction during oscillations. [3] - **PTA**: The driving force is limited, and it is affected by cost and macro - sentiment disturbances. [3] - **Short - fiber**: There are limited industrial contradictions. [3] - **Bottle Chip**: The increase in polymerization cost supports the valuation. [3] - **PP**: The expectation of stable growth boosts the market, and PP prices will oscillate. [3] - **Plastic**: The expectation of stable growth in the petrochemical industry provides a slight boost, and plastic prices will oscillate. [3] - **Pure Benzene**: The improvement of the balance sheet and positive commodity sentiment are expected to lead to a weak rebound. [3] - **Styrene**: The stable - growth plan boosts the market, and styrene prices will rise. [3] - **PVC**: Market sentiment has warmed up again, and a cautious and optimistic attitude is recommended. [3] - **Caustic Soda**: There is a strong expectation but weak reality, and caustic soda prices will experience a weak rebound. [3] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.78 with a change of - 0.1, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread being 60 with a change of 8. [36] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities. For example, the basis of asphalt is 198 with a change of 33, and the number of warehouse receipts is 82300. [37] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads also show different values and changes, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 354 with a change of - 62. [39] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The content mainly lists various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in a summarized way in the provided text. [40][52][63]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming third round of US-China trade negotiations will extend beyond economic issues to include China's oil purchases from Russia and Iran, highlighting deeper geopolitical and economic interests [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The US is not in a hurry to reach an agreement, emphasizing the importance of a "quality" deal rather than a rushed outcome, indicating a more cautious stance from the White House [1]. - Recent months have seen a slight easing in US-China relations, particularly in areas like rare earth exports and technology cooperation, but new demands are emerging as negotiations approach [1][3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - The US views China's oil purchases from Iran and Russia as contrary to its strategic interests, aiming to limit these transactions through trade agreements to maintain its global standing [3][5]. - Imposing such restrictions is seen as an infringement on China's sovereignty and a challenge to international trade norms, as China should have the freedom to choose its trading partners [3][5]. Group 3: Economic Considerations - The US's unilateral sanctions are deemed unacceptable under international law and could further deteriorate US-China relations, with domestic industrial interests also influencing these actions [5]. - China must remain calm and strategically firm in negotiations, defending its trade rights and leveraging its significant resources and consumer market as bargaining chips [5][7]. Group 4: Future Negotiation Dynamics - The upcoming negotiations will be a challenging game, with the US's request to limit China's oil imports from Russia and Iran affecting not only economic interests but also the international political landscape [7]. - Both parties need to find a balance that protects their interests while avoiding further conflict, as excessive pressure from the US may provoke a backlash from China [7].

Core Viewpoint - Hungary is taking proactive measures to secure its energy supply by collaborating with Serbia and Russia to construct a new oil pipeline, as EU sanctions on Russian energy have led to skyrocketing energy prices domestically [1][3]. Group 1: Pipeline Project Details - The new pipeline project involves an investment of €325 million for 180 kilometers in Hungary and €157 million for the Serbian section, aiming to transport 5 million tons of oil annually to support Serbia's Pančevo refinery and enhance Hungary's energy security [3]. - The urgency of the project is underscored by Hungary's financial losses of €20 billion over three years due to sanctions, prompting the need for alternative energy sources [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - The collaboration between Hungary and Serbia is seen as a strategic move to bypass EU sanctions, with Hungary asserting its "energy sovereignty" against EU directives [4]. - The project raises concerns among EU members, particularly as it deepens ties between Serbia and Russia, which could lead to further geopolitical tensions within Europe [4]. Group 3: Public Sentiment and Future Outlook - The Hungarian public is primarily concerned with maintaining affordable energy during winter, with assurances from officials that cheaper energy sources will be secured [4]. - The EU has set a deadline for complete abandonment of Russian oil and gas by the end of 2027, raising questions about whether Hungary's pipeline can be operational in time to meet this deadline [4].

就在这个交易即将尘埃落定之际，中远海运如同黑马般出现在谈判桌上，打破了原本看似平静的局面。这家中国最大的航运企业的参与，立刻给交易带来了 新的变量。从某种意义上说，中远的加入不仅是为了保障自身利益，更是一场为国家战略利益而战的行动。毕竟，港口的控制不仅关系到商业利益，更关乎 国家安全和海洋战略。 在全球经济的舞台上，李嘉诚的港口出售事件如同一场精彩的争夺战，几番波折后终于迎来了戏剧性的转折。这场交易牵动着国际资本的神经，也让中国的 航运巨头中远海运走入了聚光灯下。如今，各方博弈如何？让我们深入探讨这一复杂的局面，看看这场交易背后的深意以及可能引发的冲击。 回顾一下事情的起因：李嘉诚决定将43个海外港口出售给美国投资巨头贝莱德集团，出价高达1657亿元人民币。在这一决定被公开时，不少人对李嘉诚的选 择感到困惑，这不仅是商业利益的考量，更关乎国家利益的深层次思考。众所周知，这些港口的控制权显然不是单纯的市场行为，而是涉及到国与国之间的 博弈，尤其是处于中美关系紧张的背景下。 为何李嘉诚在众多中国企业的收购提议中选择了美国的贝莱德？答案或许在于潜在的利益和战略考量。贝莱德身后庞大的资金派系及其与美国政府千丝万缕 的 ...