美国财政部宣布，制裁不仅仅包括俄罗斯石油公司和卢克石油公司，还包括其在俄罗斯的所有子公司以及持股超过50%的相关实体。俄罗斯石油公司是全球 第二大石油生产商，这意味着俄罗斯的四大石油巨头已全部被美国列入黑名单。财政部长贝森特指出，这一措施旨在"削弱克里姆林宫的资金来源"，并暗示 未来可能会有更多制裁措施。 与此同时，欧盟也启动了第19轮制裁，提前将俄罗斯液化天然气进口禁令推至2027年，并加大了对俄外交官活动的限制。这一系列突然出台的制裁措施，不 仅让全球能源市场出现剧烈波动，也使中国成为地缘政治博弈中的焦点。 俄罗斯石油公司和卢克石油公司控制着俄罗斯近一半的原油出口量，其业务覆盖从勘探、生产到运输的全链条。根据彭博社的数据显示，2024年这两家公司 将占俄罗斯原油总产量的63%，而出口收入占俄联邦预算的24%。美国的制裁包括冻结在美国的资产，禁止美国企业和个人与这些公司进行交易，还威胁要 对任何"协助俄罗斯军事工业"的外国金融机构实施二级制裁。意味着全球与这两家企业有业务往来的机构，包括印度炼油厂和中国银行，都可能面临法律风 险。 and STREETS Particolor 8 12 fi g - 20 ...

土耳其这次盯上英国退役的C-130J"超级大力神"运输机，看起来是军备更新的日常操作，其实每一步都踩着地缘政治的敏感线。 这事儿正式官宣是上周，土耳其国防部的阿克图尔克少将亲自站出来对媒体确认：土耳其空军要买英国皇家空军退役的那批C-130J。这不是简单的旧货收 购，飞机退役后先交给英国马歇尔集团，由他们做维护和现代化改造，再交付给土耳其。 麻烦就出在这里。 这些飞机的根源是美制的。美国产的军机，只要二次转卖，无论卖给谁，都得经过美国授权。这意味着，土耳其和英国谈得再好，美国一句"不批准"，整单 生意就得暂停。 从技术上说，马歇尔集团是干过不少类似项目的老手，帮奥地利、孟加拉国，还有美国海军的蓝天使飞行表演队都维护过这类飞机。但这次面对的是土耳 其，而不是美国的盟友集团里的"小跟班"。美方能不能痛快批授权，真正的戏在后边。 英国这边想卖嘛，一方面是C-130J退役要清理库存，另一方面国防装备销售管理局也希望通过改造项目增加吸引力，还要保证性能达到交付标准。他们每年 都审查这些飞机状态，换关键部件，目的很明确，能快点卖出去。 土耳其想买，是有自己的盘算。它的运输机队现在由C-130B、C-130E和A400M混 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Fortune Global Forum will be held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on October 26-27, marking the first time the event takes place in this region [1][2] - The forum will focus on three historical trends reshaping the global business landscape: disruptive breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, geopolitical tensions, and demographic changes [2] - The theme of the forum is "Global Transformation: Integration and Breakthrough," aiming to foster collaboration and transformative dialogue among influential leaders from various sectors [2] Key Topics - The forum will address significant topics including the reshaping of industry landscapes and talent strategies by generative AI, investment in AI infrastructure, and building resilient supply chains for the future [6] - Other discussions will include the alignment of sustainable development goals with business strategies, new paradigms of global trade amid geopolitical changes, and exploring emerging markets for economic growth [6] Guest Lineup - The forum will feature a diverse array of guests, including government officials, business leaders, and thought leaders from around the world [4][5] - Notable attendees include H.E. Fahd bin Abdulmohsan Al-Rashed, H.E. Rachel Reeves, H.E. Khalid A. Al-Falih, and executives from major companies like Qualcomm, Delta Air Lines, and Alphabet [5][6] Global Leaders and Thinkers - Prominent global figures such as Ray Dalio, former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, and Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado will also participate in the forum [10][32]

Report Title - Crude Oil Stops Falling and Rebounds, Styrene Temporarily Stabilizes - Styrene Weekly Report [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - There is an expectation of geopolitical escalation in Venezuela, causing crude oil prices to stop falling and rebound. The BZN spread of pure benzene has decreased, and the profit of non - integrated EB plants has increased, with the overall valuation being moderately low. The supply side of styrene faces significant pressure, while the demand side enters a seasonal peak season, leading to a brief rebound in the downstream 3S开工率. Port inventories are fluctuating at a high level. In the short term, geopolitical factors will push up the crude oil price center, and the seasonal peak season will interfere with the decline of styrene prices. When the seasonal off - season arrives at the end of the fourth quarter, the futures price may continue to decline under the background of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see [11][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Information** - Policy: There is an expectation of geopolitical escalation in Venezuela, causing crude oil prices to stop falling and rebound [11]. - Valuation: The weekly decline of styrene (futures > cost > spot), the basis weakens, the BZN spread decreases, and the profit of non - integrated EB plants increases [11]. - Cost: Last week, the spot price of pure benzene in East China decreased by - 3.08%, the price of the active futures contract of pure benzene decreased by - 0.16%, the pure benzene basis decreased by 166 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene operating rate fluctuated at a high level [11]. - Supply: The utilization rate of EB production capacity was 71.88%, a month - on - month decrease of - 2.35%, a year - on - year increase of 2.10%, and a decrease of - 8.20% compared with the five - year average. According to the production plan, the supply - demand pattern may change in the fourth quarter, and the pressure on the supply side may be slightly relieved. In September, the domestic import volume of pure benzene was 4.3507 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 1.39% and a year - on - year increase of 2.88%, mainly from the Middle East. The import volume of EB in September was 246,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 8.39% and a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. Last week, the port inventory of pure benzene and the inventory of EB in Jiangsu ports continued to accumulate at a high level [11]. - Demand: The weighted operating rate of downstream 3S was 42.92%, a month - on - month increase of 11.38%; the operating rate of PS was 53.80%, a month - on - month decrease of - 1.47% and a year - on - year decrease of - 4.49%; the operating rate of EPS was 62.52%, a month - on - month increase of 53.47% and a year - on - year increase of 4.80%; the operating rate of ABS was 73.10%, a month - on - month increase of 0.83% and a year - on - year increase of 19.25%. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season, downstream demand has slightly improved [12]. - Inventory: The in - plant inventory of EB was 193,200 tons, a month - on - month de - stocking of - 0.11% and a year - on - year stocking of 17.59%; the inventory of EB in Jiangsu ports was 202,500 tons, a month - on - month stocking of 3.05% and a year - on - year stocking of 483.57%. Port inventories continued to accumulate at a high level [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint** - Forecast for this week: The reference oscillation range for pure benzene (BZ2603) is (5800 - 6100); the reference oscillation range for styrene (EB2511) is (6800 - 7100). It is recommended to wait and see [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - The report presents multiple charts related to styrene, including spot price, futures active contract price, basis, open interest, trading volume, registered warehouse receipts, and spreads between different contracts from 2021 - 2025 [16][19][21] 3. Profit and Inventory - **Inventory** - The report shows charts of the inventory of pure benzene ports, styrene ports, and styrene factories from 2021 - 2025 [34][35][37] - **Profit** - The POSM profit of styrene has recovered from the historical low in the same period. The production process of styrene mainly includes ethylbenzene dehydrogenation (85%), PO/SM co - production (12%), and C8 extraction (3%). The top ten styrene producers account for 44% of the total production capacity [41][43][46] 4. Cost Side - **Supply - Side Profit** - The profit of naphtha has rebounded significantly [53] - **Supply - Demand of Pure Benzene** - In 2025, pure benzene will continue to reduce inventory, and the supply - demand gap will increase quarter - on - quarter in the fourth quarter. The total planned production capacity of pure benzene in 2025 is 2.28 million tons, and the total planned production capacity of its downstream products is 3.11 million tons [57][58] - **Price Difference** - The US - South Korea price difference of pure benzene has fluctuated upwards [64] - **Downstream Factory Inventory** - The factory inventory of caprolactam has been fluctuating at a high level [91] 5. Supply Side - **Production Plan** - In 2025, the supply - demand gap of styrene will increase in the fourth quarter. The total planned production capacity of styrene in 2025 is 2.42 million tons, and the total planned production capacity of its downstream products is 4.198 million tons [105][107] - **Production and Import - Export** - The styrene production has declined from the high level in the same period. The report also shows charts of styrene's daily production, export volume, import volume, and weekly operating rate from 2021 - 2025 [113][117][115] 6. Demand Side - **Capacity Forecast** - The report presents the capacity, production, and growth rate charts of PS, EPS, and ABS from 2021 - 2025 [125] - **Operating Rate and Profit** - The operating rate of EPS has seasonally rebounded, the operating rate of ABS has rebounded from a low level, and the report also shows the production profit and inventory charts of PS, EPS, and ABS [128][136][138] - **Downstream Demand Structure** - PS accounts for 35% of the demand for styrene, mainly used in food packaging, daily necessities, and electronic casings; EPS accounts for 21%, mainly used in building insulation materials and shock - proof packaging; ABS accounts for 15%, mainly used in household appliance casings, auto parts, and toys [147] - **Downstream Product Sales** - The report shows the monthly sales volume, production volume, inventory, and year - on - year growth rate charts of household refrigerators and washing machines from 2021 - 2025 [148][152][157]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) has included Chinese companies in its latest sanctions against Russia, marking a significant escalation in geopolitical tensions and potentially harming its own economic interests [1][3][5]. Economic Impact - The EU's sanctions against Chinese firms could severely disrupt the supply chains that European industries, such as solar energy, automotive, and consumer electronics, heavily rely on, with 80% of solar components imported from China [3][5]. - Following the announcement of sanctions, Brent crude oil prices rose by 1.6%, and Shanghai crude oil futures increased by 2.3%, indicating immediate market reactions to the EU's decision [3][5]. - The projected trade volume between China and the EU for 2024 is €840 billion, highlighting the interdependence of both economies [3]. Political Dynamics - The sanctions have damaged the previously cooperative relationship between China and the EU, particularly in areas like climate change and global governance, leading to a breakdown of political trust [3][5]. - The EU's actions appear to be influenced by the United States, which has historically benefited from European sanctions against Russia, raising concerns about Europe's autonomy in foreign policy [5][8]. Energy Supply Chain - The sanctions on Chinese oil refineries could disrupt global energy supply chains, as these refineries are key suppliers of middle distillates, potentially leading to increased energy costs for European consumers [5][6]. - The EU's decision to sanction Chinese energy firms may exacerbate the ongoing energy crisis in Europe, with rising costs for heating and electricity expected as winter approaches [5][6]. Strategic Considerations - The EU's approach is seen as a gamble that could backfire, risking not only economic stability but also public support as citizens face rising costs and economic challenges [8]. - There is a growing sentiment that the EU is becoming increasingly dependent on the U.S. while distancing itself from China, which could have long-term implications for its strategic autonomy [8].

Core Viewpoint - Investors should set reasonable return targets, appropriately assume risks, broaden investment scope, and extend investment horizons in a low-interest-rate environment [1] Group 1: Asset Allocation Principles - Holding risk assets can yield risk premiums, and diversification is the only free lunch in investing [1] - A reasonable allocation of alpha and beta is essential, and global allocation requires managing currency risks [1] Group 2: Future Investment Outlook - The current investment landscape is characterized by greater short-term clarity compared to long-term macro prospects, suggesting a maintenance of risk appetite [1] - Strategic management of macro risks is necessary to navigate macroeconomic fluctuations through active management [1] - Emphasizing disruptive trends, investors should focus on digital innovation, artificial intelligence, geopolitical shifts, and low-carbon transitions as structural changes [1]

Geopolitical Tensions - The U.S. is facing significant geopolitical challenges, particularly in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, which are straining its strategic resources and affecting its initiatives in the Asia-Pacific region [1] - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, along with Iran's activities, poses potential risks for regional stability, further complicating U.S. foreign policy [1] Economic Indicators - Despite showing economic growth, there is increasing skepticism regarding U.S. economic data, as evidenced by the simultaneous rise in the dollar, U.S. stocks, and gold prices, indicating underlying systemic instability [1] - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with interest payments nearing annual military spending, raising concerns about the sustainability of this debt-driven model [1] U.S.-China Relations - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's visit to China in April 2024 highlighted concerns over China's subsidies in electric vehicles and solar panels, which the U.S. believes distort global market competition [1][2] - Secretary of State Antony Blinken's discussions in China included sensitive topics like the Taiwan Strait and energy procurement from Russia, indicating a shift towards more direct U.S. intervention in bilateral relations [2] Legislative Developments - The U.S. Congress is advancing legislation, such as the "Unlimited Act," which could impose economic sanctions on Chinese companies involved with Russian military industries, expanding the scope of previous sanctions [2][3] Financial Isolation Measures - Following Yellen's visit, the U.S. Treasury is planning to isolate Chinese firms linked to Russian military support from the global financial system, reflecting a more systematic approach to sanctions [3] - China's response includes a significant reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings, dropping to $730.7 billion, the lowest since 2009, as a precaution against potential asset freezes [3] Gold Reserves and Strategy - China has been increasing its gold reserves, reaching 2,303 tons by September 2025, with a notable acceleration in purchasing rates compared to previous years [5][7] - The shift in China's reserve management strategy includes moving away from dollar reliance towards local currency trade and direct gold procurement, enhancing supply chain resilience [7] Energy and Material Supply Chains - U.S. pressure extends to energy imports, with calls for China to cease purchasing oil and gas from Russia and Iran, reflecting a broader strategy to limit Chinese access to critical materials [9] - The financial sanctions against Russia are designed to disrupt the flow of funds between Chinese and Russian banks, although the impact on China is mitigated by the high percentage of trade conducted in local currencies [9] Military and Industrial Developments - China's military industrial sector has significantly increased its domestic supply chain capabilities, achieving a 90% localization rate for key components, which enhances resilience against external sanctions [11] - The electric vehicle sector has also seen a complete localization of production, with exports rising dramatically, providing a buffer against international pressures [11] Global Gold Market Dynamics - The global demand for gold has surged, with central banks purchasing a total of 415 tons in the first half of 2025, contributing to rising international gold prices [11] - China's strategic increase in gold reserves and purchases has influenced global market trends, contrasting sharply with the risks associated with U.S. Treasury securities [10][12] Economic Pressures on the U.S. - The U.S. faces mounting economic pressures, with a national debt of $38 trillion and annual interest payments exceeding $1.2 trillion, prompting a cycle of borrowing [13] - China's reduction of U.S. debt holdings and the shift towards gold purchasing are indicative of a broader strategy to enhance financial independence and mitigate risks associated with U.S. economic policies [13]

Core Insights - The meeting between Ukrainian President Zelensky and German Chancellor Merz has brought global attention back to Ukraine's energy crisis, which is critical as winter approaches [1] - Ukraine's energy infrastructure has been severely damaged due to the ongoing conflict, with 60% of natural gas production and electricity facilities destroyed, leading to a gas shortfall of 4.4 billion cubic meters this winter [1] - The humanitarian impact is dire, with reports indicating a 31% increase in civilian casualties in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the previous year [2] Group 1: Ukraine's Energy Crisis - Ukraine's energy crisis is exacerbated by the destruction of energy facilities, with significant financial requirements for repairs estimated at €758 million [1] - The government is delaying the start of the heating season to conserve natural gas and is accelerating the development of renewable energy, aiming for a 27% share in the energy mix by 2030 [5][6] - Ukrainian citizens are facing severe hardships, including lack of heating and water supply due to power outages [2] Group 2: International Response - Germany has committed to providing air defense support and leading efforts in energy equipment and financial aid to help Ukraine rebuild its energy system [4] - Discussions are ongoing regarding the use of frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine, with Germany's support deemed crucial [4] - However, Germany faces its own energy crisis and internal divisions regarding the extent of support for Ukraine, balancing national energy security with international obligations [4] Group 3: Broader Implications - The energy crisis in Ukraine is not just a national issue but a global concern, affecting energy security and international relations [6] - The EU is encouraged to enhance support for Ukraine's energy system reconstruction through funding, technology, and equipment [6] - A call for Russia to cease attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and engage in peaceful negotiations is emphasized, highlighting the need for a collaborative international approach to resolve the crisis [6][7]

Report Information - Report Type: Black Metal Weekly Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Variety Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [4] Investment Strategies Single - Side Strategies - **RB2601 and HC2601**: The rebound rhythm is undetermined. The latest prices are 3046 and 3250 respectively. Geopolitical easing and the improvement of steel terminal demand bring a steel price rebound, but it should be viewed with caution. The recovery path of steel mill profits will determine the price rebound rhythm. If it is through raw material price cuts, the negative feedback will be greater and the steel price increase process will be more tortuous; if it is through a significant improvement in terminal demand, the steel price increase will be smoother [6][7][8] - **J2601**: The latest price is 1757.5. After a phased correction, it may continue to strengthen. Recent coke production of independent coking enterprises and steel production enterprises has declined, coke inventory in ports and independent coking enterprises is generally low, and there is a demand for a second - round price increase in coke spot, but the acceptance process of steel mills is slow [6][9] - **JM2601**: The latest price is 1248.5. After a phased correction, it may continue to strengthen. Cold weather in most of the north, stricter coal mine safety production inspections, and a decline in Mongolian coal customs clearance have led to higher coal prices. The coking coal port inventory is at a low level, and although coking coal imports have recovered, there is still a year - on - year decline of more than 6% from January to September [6][9] Spread Arbitrage Strategies - **I2601**: The latest price is 771. It is expected to operate weakly. The five major steel products' production has recovered and the apparent demand has continued to rise, while the daily average pig iron output has declined for four consecutive weeks, falling below 2.4 million tons. Steel mill profits have been continuously narrowing, suppressing production enthusiasm and affecting raw material demand [6] Core Views - The steel price rebound due to geopolitical easing and improved terminal demand should be treated with caution, and the recovery path of steel mill profits is crucial [7][8] - Coke and coking coal futures are likely to continue to strengthen after a phased correction, supported by news and the spot market [9][10] - The iron ore price is under pressure in the short term due to compressed steel mill profits and weakening demand [11][12] Summary by Directory Steel Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: In the week of October 24, the prices of major rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets rebounded with varying increases. The price of 20mm grade - 3 rebar in major markets increased by 0 - 40 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of 4.75mm hot - rolled coil in major markets increased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [13] - **Blast Furnace and Crude Steel**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide has declined for 4 consecutive weeks since the high in late July (down 0.39 percentage points to 89.94% week - on - week). The average daily crude steel output of key large and medium - sized enterprises in early October has significantly rebounded from the low in early January [13] - **Pig Iron and Electric Furnace**: The national daily average pig iron output has declined for 4 consecutive weeks since the high in late July (down 1.05 million tons or 0.44% to 2.399 million tons week - on - week). The capacity utilization rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills has declined after rising for 2 consecutive weeks (down 0.90 percentage points to 52.30% week - on - week) [17] - **Five - Major Steel Products**: The weekly production of rebar and hot - rolled coil of major steel mills nationwide has rebounded. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil of major steel mills has declined [17] - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities has declined for 2 consecutive weeks, reaching a new low since the end of August. The social inventory of hot - rolled coil in 33 cities has declined from the high since early March [21] - **Downstream Demand**: From January to September, the national real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year (the decline widened by 1.0 percentage point compared with January - August). The national automobile production increased by 10.9% year - on - year (the increase widened by 0.4 percentage point compared with January - August) [21] - **Apparent Consumption and Disk Profit**: The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil has increased for 2 consecutive weeks. The disk profit of the rebar 2601 contract has shown a continuous 3 - week increase in the loss amplitude [25] - **Spot Rebar Gross Profit per Ton**: The gross profit per ton of long - process steel mill rebar calculated by the main spot price has shown a continuous 4 - week increase in the loss amplitude. The gross profit per ton of short - process steel mill rebar (at flat electricity price) has stabilized after a 6 - week decline [29] Conclusions and Suggestions - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The recovery path of steel mill profits will determine the price rebound rhythm. The steel price rebound should be viewed with caution [31] - **Basis**: The rebar basis has narrowed, and it is expected to fluctuate between 110 and 190 yuan/ton in the future. The hot - rolled coil basis has slightly narrowed, and it is expected to fluctuate between 30 and 90 yuan/ton in the future [33][35] Coke and Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: In the week of October 24, the prices of major coke spot markets have been relatively stable for 3 consecutive weeks, and the prices of major coking coal markets have mainly continued to rise [36] - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The daily average coke output of 230 independent coking plants nationwide has declined for 6 consecutive weeks. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants has declined for 6 consecutive weeks. The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises has rebounded from the low in mid - September [36] - **Inventory and Coking Plant Profit**: The coke port inventory has increased for 3 consecutive weeks. The coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises has declined significantly for 3 consecutive weeks. The coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants has declined for 2 consecutive weeks. The average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises has shown a continuous 2 - week loss, and the loss amplitude has increased in the recent week [39] - **Sample Mine Production, Operating Rate, and Inventory**: The daily average clean coal output of 523 sample mines has declined. The operating rate of 523 sample mines has declined. The clean coal and raw coal inventories of 523 sample mines have declined after rising for 2 consecutive weeks [39] - **Coking Coal Import and Inventory**: From January to September, China's coking coal imports decreased by 6.1% year - on - year. The port coking coal inventory has increased. The coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking plants has increased significantly for 2 consecutive weeks, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises has declined [44] - **Raw Coal and Coke Production**: From January to September, China's raw coal production increased by 2.72% year - on - year, and the coke production increased by 3.50% year - on - year [44] Conclusions and Suggestions - Coke and coking coal may have a phased correction, but the overall strengthening trend is difficult to change. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the sustainability of the increase in downstream steel prices driven by costs [48][49] Iron Ore Fundamental Analysis - **Price and Spread**: As of October 23, the 62% Platts iron ore index has slightly declined. As of October 24, the price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port has slightly rebounded. The spreads between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB fines have changed [50] - **Inventory and Unloading Volume**: In the week of October 24, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports has continued to increase, and the daily average unloading volume at 45 ports has continued to decline. The inventory of imported ore for steel mills has decreased, and the sintered powder ore inventory of 64 sample steel mills has declined [55] - **Shipping and Arrival**: In the week of October 17, the iron ore shipping volume from Australia and Brazil has increased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased significantly. It is expected that the arrival volume will gradually increase in the near future [58] - **Domestic Ore Production and Operation**: From January to September 2025, China's domestic iron ore production decreased by 2.55% year - on - year. As of October 24, the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mining enterprises has declined [62] - **Port Transaction Volume and Pig Iron Cost**: As of October 23, the 5 - day moving average of the iron ore transaction volume at major ports has declined. In the week of October 24, the average tax - free pig iron cost of 64 sample steel mills has continued to rise [64] - **Daily Average Pig Iron Output, Blast Furnace Operating Rate, and Capacity Utilization**: As of October 24, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills has declined, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate has declined, the blast furnace operating rate has increased, and the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises has declined [67] - **Five - Major Steel Products Production and Inventory**: In the week of October 24, the actual weekly production of the five major steel products has rebounded, the apparent demand has increased, and the inventory has declined [70] - **Transportation Cost**: As of October 22, the main iron ore freight prices have mainly increased. As of October 23, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and the Capesize Freight Index (BCI) have increased [76] Conclusions and Suggestions - **Iron Ore**: Due to compressed steel mill profits, iron ore demand is under pressure, and the iron ore price is likely to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US negotiation results [80] - **Basis**: As of October 24, the basis between the Qingdao Port iron ore spot price (after moisture adjustment) and the iron ore futures main contract has widened. It is expected to narrow in the future, fluctuating between 30 and 90 yuan/ton [81]

Group 1 - The EU has included Chinese energy companies in its sanctions list against Russia for the first time, naming 12 companies, including a major refinery that processes Russian oil, indicating a strategic move against both Russia and China [1][3][5] - The sanctions aim to disrupt the energy cooperation between China and Russia, as the targeted companies account for 3% of China's total refining capacity and play a crucial role in importing and processing Russian oil [5][9] - The EU's actions are seen as an attempt to redefine global energy and political dynamics, with the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen labeling China as the "primary competitor" and pushing for a transition to clean energy to reduce dependency on China [3][7][9] Group 2 - China's Ministry of Commerce has responded strongly to the EU's sanctions, stating that they violate international law and threaten global energy security, and has indicated potential countermeasures, particularly concerning rare earth exports [9][11] - The sanctions may inadvertently harm the EU's own supply chains, as Brent crude oil prices have surged to $95 per barrel, prompting Chinese companies to shift production capacity to Southeast Asia and the Middle East [15][16] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with Russia continuing to support China by increasing oil imports, which could account for 12% of the EU's targeted oil exports, highlighting the deepening energy ties between China and Russia [9][11][18]