中辉有色观点 | | 1 11 | 12 2 | 200 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | - | | August And And States of the | 11 100 Lad HA | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 国内假日期间事件复杂：美国关税反复、伊朗局势变化，另外日本政府或给资本市 | | | 多单持有 | 场带来潜在动荡。黄金大涨，今日开盘国内市场将补涨。中长期地缘秩序重塑，不 | | ★ | | 确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银光伏、新能源汽车及 AI 等新兴领域推动其工业需求占比攀升至近 60%，成为需 | | 白银 | 谨慎追高 | 求增长的核心引擎；全球流动性宽松强化了其与黄金联动的避险金融属性。短期参 | | ★ | | 与难度大，关注风险报偿比。 | | 铜 | | 特朗普 10%关税生效，美联储官员放鹰，伊朗局势紧张，国内 LPR 按兵不动，宏观 | | | 回调试多 | 情绪多空交织。随着金三银四消费旺季和国内两会临近，铜整体趋势偏强， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is continuously disturbed by the progress of the US - Iran negotiations, and the price of crude oil is oscillating strongly. The chemical industry has a good start after the Spring Festival. Although there is inventory accumulation, it may continue the oscillating pattern. The overall outlook is that the crude oil will maintain high volatility, and the chemical prices will continue to oscillate and consolidate [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: API crude oil has a large inventory build - up, and the US - Iran geopolitical situation continuously disturbs the market. The supply is expected to be loose this year, but the geopolitical premium is significant. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [2][7]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price rises, and the asphalt futures price goes up. The long - term supply of raw materials is expected to be abundant, and the current price is over - valued. It is expected to oscillate, and the long - term valuation is expected to decline [6][7]. - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price still has a high geopolitical premium. The increase in Venezuelan oil production is expected to put long - term pressure on it. It is expected to oscillate, and short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [8]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate upwards. Although it faces some negative factors, its current valuation is low. It is expected to oscillate and follow the crude oil fluctuations [9]. - **PX**: The cost boost and the warm commodity sentiment resonate, and the price center moves up. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the mid - term logic of buying on dips remains [10]. - **PTA**: Supported by cost and tariff policies, it is necessary to pay attention to the resumption rhythm of the polyester industry. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [11]. - **Pure Benzene**: After the festival, it makes up for the price increase. The fundamentals in Q1 are better than those in Q4, but the inventory pressure is still large. It is expected to oscillate [12][13]. - **Styrene**: After the festival, it makes up for the price increase. The seasonal inventory build - up height in February is adjusted downwards, but the support strength declines. It is expected to oscillate [14][15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price rebound is limited due to supply - demand pressure, and the support below is enhanced. It is expected to maintain range consolidation in the short - term [16][18]. - **Short - fiber**: Supported by cost and tariff reduction, it is beneficial for export. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [18][19]. - **Bottle Chip**: The cost boost is obvious. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the support for processing fees below is enhanced [20]. - **Methanol**: After the festival, the overseas geopolitical disturbance continues, and it oscillates widely. It is necessary to pay attention to the negotiation progress between the US and Iran [22][23]. - **Urea**: Driven by post - festival demand, it oscillates strongly. Although there is upward momentum, the upward space is limited [24]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The geopolitical disturbance boosts the sentiment, and it rebounds slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [28]. - **PP**: The basis is weak, and the futures price follows the crude oil to rebound slightly in the short - term. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [29]. - **PL**: Supported by the spot and the rising oil price, it rebounds. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [30]. - **PVC**: The geopolitical disturbance still exists, and it may oscillate. The high inventory forms a suppression, and the market sentiment is supported by the geopolitical disturbance and the spring inspection expectation [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectation, it oscillates. The high inventory suppresses, but the spring inspection and downstream restocking support it [32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. have different changes, which reflect the market's expectations for different time periods of each variety [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of each variety also have corresponding changes, which can reflect the relationship between the spot and futures prices and the inventory situation to a certain extent [35]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads between different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. have changed, which can help analyze the relative price relationships between different varieties [36]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring Although the report lists various varieties such as methanol, urea, etc., no specific monitoring data and analysis content are provided. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of the commodity index all show different degrees of increase, reflecting the overall upward trend of the market [275][276].

华夏时报记者 何一华 李未来 北京报道 本轮调价为年内第四次调价窗口，2月24日24时调价窗口开启后，国内成品油零售价格达成"三连涨"， 节后公众自驾通勤和出行消费支出进一步增加。 卓创资讯测算，私家车单次加满一箱50L的油后将多花7元，私家车方面，以月跑2000公里，百公里平 均油耗8L的燃油汽车为例，下次调价窗口开启前，单辆车的燃油成本将增加10元左右。物流行业以月 跑10000公里，百公里油耗在38L的重型卡车为例，在下次调价窗口开启前，单辆车的燃油成本将增加 231元左右。 对于下一轮国内成品油价格走势，业内普遍预计将继续上调。 国内成品油迎来春节后首次调价。 2月24日下午，国家发改委发布公告称，近期国际市场油价波动上升，根据2月24日的前10个工作日平均 价格与上次调价前10个工作日平均价格对比情况，按照现行成品油价格机制，自2月24日24时起，国内 汽、柴油价格每吨分别上涨175元和170元。 对于下一轮国内成品油调价预期，金联创成品油分析师徐鹏在接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示，进入 新一轮计价周期，首个工作日变化率将正向开端，幅度预计在3.4%附近，成品油零售价对应上调幅度 180元/吨，零售 ...

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【环球时报驻希腊特约记者 梁曼瑜 环球时报记者 徐嘉彤】 编者的话： 2月23日，美军最大航母"福特"号抵达希腊克里特岛苏达湾，这里设有北约军事基 地，是希腊、美国及北约在东地中海的重要战略设施。至此，美国已在中东部署"双航母"，作为对伊朗施压的最新举措。上周，美国驻希腊大使吉尔福伊尔 宣布美国有望与希腊、韩国签署一项造船协议。她此前还透露，美国总统特朗普计划访问希腊。有欧洲媒体认为，希腊正将自己定位为欧洲进口美国液化天 然气的南部门户。而在全球地缘政治格局深度重组之际，美国正明显强化对希腊所在的东地中海地区的战略关注。 面对俄乌冲突持续、中东局势紧张、欧洲能源结构剧烈调整，美国亟须在东地中海地区打造一个稳定、可控、可靠的战略枢纽，而希腊恰恰具备所需条件。 希腊是北约东南翼的重要门户，连接巴尔干、中东与北非三大板块，是控制爱琴海与地中海航道的关键节点。 美希关系变化的一条重要主线是能源。据英国《金融时报》报道，随着欧盟计划于2027年秋季前全面禁止进口俄罗斯天然气，希腊正将自己定位为美国液化 天然气进入欧洲的南部门户。希腊方面相信，凭借自身地理位置、液化天然气接收能力提升、基础设施升级以及与美国的密切关系，本 ...

今天我们就把这件错综复杂的事儿揉碎了，像朋友聊天一样，从头到尾给大伙儿盘一盘。 掐住命运的咽喉："友谊"管道停摆之谜 就在这几天，乌克兰和它的两个西边邻居——斯洛伐克、匈牙利，彻底撕破了脸。这起纠纷的核心，是 一条名字听起来非常讽刺的输油管道："友谊"管道。 一边是深陷战火、急需电力续命的乌克兰；另一边是极度依赖俄罗斯廉价能源、扬言要拔掉乌克兰电插 头的匈牙利和斯洛伐克。双方互亮底牌，互飙狠话。更有意思的是，作为"大家长"的欧盟在这场风波 里，展现出了堪称教科书级别的"拉偏架"手腕。 事情的导火索要追溯到上个月（2026年1月）。一条连接俄罗斯与中东欧的能源大动脉——"友谊"输油 管道（德鲁日巴管道）南线突然停摆了。 这条管道可大有来头。从冷战时期开始，它就是苏联向东欧阵营输血的血管，日输送能力高达200万 桶，可以说是全球规模最大的石油管网之一。对斯洛伐克和匈牙利这两个没靠海的内陆国家来说，这哪 是输油管，这简直是经济命脉。国内的物价、老百姓的暖气、工厂的机器，全指望这管子里流出来的俄 罗斯低价原油。 结果就在最冷的寒冬，管道没油了。 乌克兰方面的解释很直接：俄罗斯的导弹无眼，炸毁了我们境内的能源基础设施， ...

据多家媒体报道，不久前，美国总统特朗普公开对外表示称，将从2月1日起对来自8个欧洲国家的商品加征10％关税，除非达成"购买格陵兰 岛"的协议，否则6月起关税将提升至25％。此事很快就引起了外界高度关注。 特朗普公开对外宣布，要对欧洲八国加征关税。与此同时，就在这种关键时刻，中方直接送出了两句话。这具体怎么回事？中方又到底送出了 哪两句话？ 此举对跨大西洋关系的破坏具有不可逆性。作为北约盟友，美欧本应在北极安全等议题上形成协同，而特朗普将贸易制裁指向同为北约成员国 的8个欧洲国家，直接动摇了联盟的信任根基。欧洲国家的集体反弹已清晰表明，面对领土主权与经济利益的双重侵犯，妥协退让只会招致更 多胁迫。欧盟酝酿启动反胁迫工具、重启关税反制清单，不仅是为捍卫自身利益，更是对美国单边主义的公开说不，跨大西洋关系从"分歧"走 向"对抗"的风险持续攀升。 有专家分析称，特朗普以关税为筹码胁迫欧洲国家默许其购买格陵兰岛的举动，绝非一时兴起的政治闹剧，而是将贸易工具极端化、地缘野心 公开化的危险尝试，不仅撕裂了跨大西洋盟友关系，更对现有国际秩序构成了潜在冲击。 从表面看，特朗普的关税威胁是对欧洲国家参与格陵兰岛军演的报复，实则是 ...

分析师 1: 各位领导大家下午好，也是非常欢迎大家参加我们长江证券举行的这个新年电话会议。我 因为在假期期间，美国和伊朗的事件也是就是一区，一波三折。然后大家也比较关注相关 的能源价格，也是，比如油价可能也涨得比较多。所以我们今天也有幸邀请到了那个王晋 教授和大家进行交流，那么王教授他是西北大学国际战略研究中心的主任，也是中东问题 的这个专家，那么也多次参加那个央视频道，包括凤凰卫视、东方卫视等。关于这个中东 问题的这个评论员，那么今天的会议环节还是分成两个环节，我们先会邀请王教授对这个 假期期间，这个发生的这个变化，做一个大概的一个汇报。 然后后续如果大家有问题，也非常欢迎大家和王教授进行这个交流，进行问答。王教授， 我们可以开始了。 西北大学国际战略研究中心主任王晋教授: 好的。那各位领导、各位投资者，大家下午好，新年好！今天是还没有出这个，出正月， 一般来说大家都是这个北方的习俗，都是也是一个不出正月都是年然后也很荣幸在这个， 就是在正月里面，也算是跟第一次跟大家来这个互动，然后向大家来汇报一下这两个情况 其实我其实都记得好像应该上一次是 1 月 1 月份吧，我记得那次好像是在当时在上海，然 后那天是当 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights three major global events during the Spring Festival that warrant attention: changes in the Iran situation, fluctuations in U.S. tariff issues, and weak U.S. economic data coupled with strong inflation, which increases uncertainty regarding future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [4][10][11] - The market's reaction indicates that the current global focus remains on geopolitical issues, followed by the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The three potential impacts identified are: increased likelihood of geopolitical conflict due to U.S.-Iran tensions, downward revision of global demand expectations due to weak U.S. economic data, and downward revision of rate cut expectations due to rising U.S. inflation [4][11][12] - Asset price performance during the Spring Festival reflects these dynamics: the downward revision of rate cut expectations has led to a rise in the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, while oil prices have increased despite lower demand expectations, and both gold and oil prices have risen amid heightened geopolitical tensions [4][12] Group 2 - Domestic data during the Spring Festival showed mixed performance, with strong figures in dining and travel but weaker box office results. Notably, the average daily sales of key retail and dining enterprises increased by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025, and cross-regional travel reached a historical high of 35.3 million trips, up 12.3% year-on-year [14] - The report notes that the Chinese yuan exchange rate remained stable, while Hong Kong stocks exhibited weaker performance during the same period [14]

2月24日，周二亚盘时段现货黄金（Gold）走势呈现明显的冲高回落特征。黄金在触及5230美元月度高 点后迅速回调，结束此前连续上涨行情。市场资金开始从短线追涨转向获利了结，导致金价上涨斜率明 显放缓。美国货币政策仍是影响黄金走势的核心变量。美联储近期会议纪要显示，多位官员认为，在通 胀回落趋势未完全稳定前，不应急于推进新一轮宽松周期。 与此同时，美国贸易政策变化也对市场情绪产生影响。美国总统特朗普提出新的全球关税计划，使市场 对全球经济增长前景产生担忧。虽然经济增长放缓通常会提升黄金避险需求，但当前市场交易逻辑更多 受到美元流动性与利率预期主导。地缘政治方面，中东地区局势仍然存在潜在冲突风险，市场持续关注 美伊核谈判进展。潜在军事冲突风险通常会提升避险资产需求，为黄金提供中长期支撑。总体来看，黄 金当前处于宏观不确定性支撑与货币政策压制的双重博弈阶段。 从日线级别观察，黄金整体趋势结构仍然偏多，但短期已进入上涨后的结构性调整周期。价格在5238美 元附近形成阶段性高点后开始回落，显示短期多头动能逐渐衰减。均线系统方面，黄金仍运行在中长期 均线之上，但价格与均线之间出现明显距离。短期均线虽仍维持向上趋势，但价 ...