Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The market may still be in a wide - range volatile state. If the geopolitical impact does not significantly worsen and the market cargo volume weakens again in April, leading to pressure on the loading rate, the European line center may still have the risk of weakening and moving downward in a volatile manner. Geopolitical, passage, and spot transportation aspects may still exert certain pressure on the market. The current trading volume and open interest of the European line are relatively low, and the liquidity activity is not high. It is recommended that investors manage their positions and risks well [1][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Freight and Contract Volume - Price Futures Contract Data - EC2604: closed at 1803, settlement price 1786.4, down 6.9098%, trading volume 18169, open interest 12060 [9] - EC2605: closed at 2086, settlement price 2069.1, down 8.2189%, trading volume 1146, open interest 1414 [9] - EC2606: closed at 2364.1, settlement price 2318.6, down 8.7596%, trading volume 12555, open interest 12845 [9] - EC2607: closed at 2475.2, settlement price 2441.4, down 6.3524%, trading volume 421, open interest 891 [9] - EC2608: closed at 2354.2, settlement price 2288.6, down 7.8255%, trading volume 1120, open interest 2720 [9] - EC2609: closed at 1658.1, settlement price 1666.1, down 6.2903%, trading volume 84, open interest 498 [9] - EC2610: closed at 1716.7, settlement price 1532.3, down 5.0678%, trading volume 2222, open interest 7330 [9] - EC2612: closed at 1716.7, settlement price 1713, down 4.8756%, trading volume 143, open interest 503 [9] Spot Freight Data - Comprehensive index: SCFI 1707 [10] - Nordic route: SCFI 1636, SCFIS 1693.26 (+8.8%) [10] - Mediterranean route: SCFI 2784 [10] - US West route: SCFI 2054, SCFIS 1024.11 (-7.7%) [10] - US East route: SCFI 2922 [10] Geopolitical and Strait Passage - As of March 24, the ship traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz was 3 [3] - Iran stated in a letter to members of the International Maritime Organization that "non - hostile ships" can pass through the Strait of Hormuz after coordinating with the Iranian authorities, excluding ships related to the US and Israel [3] - Trump proposed 15 points for US - Iran negotiations and may intend to cease fire for one month [2][3] Shipping Fundamentals - Since March 25, COSCO Shipping Lines has resumed bookings to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq. CMA CGM has previously resumed bookings on the Middle East route, with transshipment required at ports outside the Strait of Hormuz [3] Spot Quotes - No information provided Seasonal Trend of European Line Spot Freight - No information provided

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On March 25, 2026, equity index futures rose while most commodities dropped, with energy leading the decline and precious metals leading the increase [9][11]. - The main contracts of silicon metal, poly - silicon, and lithium carbonate all rose on March 25, with price trends affected by supply - demand fundamentals and macro factors [17][24][30]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On March 25, equity index futures rose (IC rose 2.2%, IM rose 1.7%), and most commodities dropped. Energy led the drop and precious metals led the raise. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were silver (up 7.0% with a 1.5% month - on - month increase in open interest), platinum (up 5.6% with a 0.2% month - on - month increase in open interest), and palladium (up 5.1% with a 4.2% month - on - month increase in open interest). The top three decliners were LPG (down 8.0% with a 1.6% month - on - month increase in open interest), fuel oil (down 6.5% with a 6.0% month - on - month decrease in open interest), and SCFIS(Europe) (down 6.0% with a 21.0% month - on - month decrease in open interest) [9][10][11]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Silicon Metal - On March 25, the main contract of silicon metal rose 1.7% to 8770 yuan/ton (GFEX). It remains in an oversupplied condition. Coal price increases offer cost support, and silicon prices are expected to fluctuate sideways. Geopolitical conflicts affect energy and coal prices, providing cost support. Northwest supply is stable, and Southwest supply is low in the dry season. Demand from polysilicon, organosilicon, and aluminum alloy is weak [17][18][19]. 1.2.2 Poly - Silicon - On March 25, the main poly - silicon futures contract rose 2.8% to 36750 yuan/ton (GFEX). Weak demand drags down prices, but supply is at a low level. In the medium to long term, prices may fluctuate widely as supply contracts and leading enterprises integrate [24][25][26]. 1.2.3 Lithium Carbonate - On March 25, the main lithium carbonate futures contract rose 4.3% to 159120 yuan/ton (GFEX). Short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Supply disruptions persist, demand is divergent, and the market is pricing in the expectation of an extended ore export ban in Zimbabwe [30][31][32]. 2. Important News 2.1 Macro News - Wang Yi held a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi on March 24. Araghchi stated that the Strait of Hormuz is open to all except warring countries [38]. - The US government submitted a 15 - point peace proposal to Iran via Pakistan, and is considering a one - month ceasefire for further negotiations [38]. - Iran refused to negotiate with Witkoff and Kushner, accusing them of "bad faith" [38]. - The Israeli military bombed two naval cruise missile production sites in Tehran on March 25 [38].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is the core variable affecting the prices of various commodities, leading to significant short - term price fluctuations and high uncertainty [1][2]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends, with some being affected by supply - side factors, some by demand - side factors, and some by both [3][7][14]. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The US proposed a conflict - ending plan to Iran, but the negotiation was disrupted. The short - term oil price has large two - way fluctuation risks, and the long - term core variable is the smooth passage of the Strait of Hormuz [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: With the expectation of geopolitical easing, fuel oil prices followed the decline of crude oil. The supply gap of high - sulfur fuel oil cannot be fully hedged, and low - sulfur fuel oil is supported by supply reduction and high cracking spreads [20]. - **Asphalt**: Domestic refineries are worried about future imported raw materials, reducing asphalt supply. The fundamentals have marginal improvement expectations, and the price will follow the oil price with limited downside [21]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals rebounded. Market sentiment fluctuates with news of the US - Iran war, and precious metals maintain high volatility in the short term [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices rebounded near the short - term moving average. Some overseas investment banks lowered the annual average copper price forecast. The copper price may get support at key positions during the peak season [3]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight Shanghai aluminum fluctuated. The spot discounts in some regions decreased, and the inventory and spot market improved slightly. The 23,000 - yuan position is a key support [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rebounded with the non - ferrous metal sector, but there are concerns about tight liquidity. The domestic zinc market is in an oversupply situation, but the cost line provides support. The price is expected to enter a range - bound state [7]. - **Lead**: The lead market is in an oversupply state, with the price running weakly. There is support at 16,200 yuan/ton, but the import of low - cost lead affects the price [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated, and the market trading volume declined. The demand for stainless steel in the peak season was lower than expected. The market is mainly affected by policy and sentiment, with a weak and volatile trend [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fluctuated around the MA5 moving average. The fundamentals of tin itself have changed little. The price may seek support at 300,000 yuan and the medium - and long - term weekly K - line moving average [10]. Chemical Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium showed a strong and volatile trend. The overall inventory reduction speed slowed down, and the inventory structure changed. The lithium market is resistant to decline and is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures were weak. The demand was affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates, and the price continued to decline. Although the medium - term trend is bearish, the short - term downward space is limited [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand, with high social inventory. The silicon price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [13]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC showed a weak and volatile trend at night. The supply decreased, and the inventory declined. The export market is expected to be good. Caustic soda also showed a weak and volatile trend, with a decline in supply pressure [27]. - **PX & PTA**: If the US - Iran situation eases, the risk premium of PX and PTA will decline. The demand recovers slowly, and the industry load decreases [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The load of ethylene glycol decreased, and the inventory declined slightly. The price fell with the decline of oil prices [29]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The US - Iran relationship may ease. Brazilian soybean harvest and export data are important factors. The prices of soybeans and soybean meal are affected by multiple factors and have high uncertainty [34]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton fell slightly. The demand in the peak season in March was good. The import quota was released, and the inventory decreased. The medium - term strategy for Zhengzhou cotton is bullish [40]. - **Sugar**: International attention is on the new - season Brazilian sugar production, which is expected to decline. Domestically, the sugar market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation [41]. - **Apple**: Apple futures prices continued to decline. The trading focus is on the demand side. The poor quality and high price of Shandong apples led to weak demand and a decline in futures prices [42]. Others - **Stock Index**: A - shares rebounded with reduced volume. The futures index contracts rose, with IM leading the increase. The market is affected by geopolitical and liquidity factors. The medium - term configuration should be balanced, and the short - term strategy is to buy on dips for broad - based indexes [45]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 30 - year Treasury bond futures rose, while the 2 - year futures fell slightly. The long - term bonds may continue to fluctuate in the short term and have a rebound opportunity after over - decline [46].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of trends and strategies over specific market points, advocating for the establishment of a personal investment system that utilizes analytical frameworks for market analysis and investment strategies for market response [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The funding environment is balanced and slightly loose, with the central bank conducting a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 78.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 58 billion yuan after 20.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [3] - The interbank funding rates are stable, with DR001 around 1.32% and DR007 around 1.44% [3] - The stock market rose over 1%, recovering above 3900 points, influenced by the easing of geopolitical concerns following the U.S. submission of a ceasefire proposal to Iran [5] Group 2: Interest Rates and Bond Market - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated around 1.82%, indicating a stable sentiment in the bond market [5] - The weighted rates for various repo codes show slight changes, with R001 at 1.40% and R007 at 1.52%, reflecting a mixed trend in the short-term funding market [4] - The government bond yields for different maturities indicate a range of rates, with the 1-year yield at 1.25% and the 10-year yield at 1.82%, showing a general upward trend in longer maturities [10] Group 3: Industry Insights - The regulatory stance on the "takeout war" suggests that it should come to an end, leading to significant stock price increases for Meituan and Alibaba, as indicated by the "takeout index" [6] - There is a debate regarding the impact of the takeout war on consumer price index (CPI) declines, questioning whether it is due to lower prices or weak income expectations and consumer confidence [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is not explicitly stated in the report, but the short - term view is that the rebar main contract will fluctuate weakly, and the long - term view is that it will continue to fluctuate strongly [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term rebar main contract fluctuates weakly due to the easing of the Middle - East situation and the weakening of iron ore and coking coal driven by the decline in crude oil. However, the downside space is limited. In the future, it will mainly follow the spot price to repair the basis. In the long - term, as it enters the peak season, it is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the downstream resumption progress and destocking speed [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Price**: The rebar main contract on Wednesday had a decrease of 56,176 open positions, and the trading volume shrank compared with the previous trading day, with 593,608 lots. The short - term moving average broke below the 5 - day moving average of 3137, and the daily line was above the medium - term 30 - day moving average of 3096 and the 60 - day moving average of 3115. The short - term trend was weak, while the medium - term trend was strong [1] - **Spot Price**: The mainstream area's HRB400E 20mm rebar spot price was 3,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared with the previous trading day [1] - **Basis**: The futures price was at a discount of 98 yuan/ton to the spot price [2] Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Situation** - **Supply**: In the week of March 19, 2026, the rebar production was 2.0333 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 80,300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 228,800 tons. The steel mill's resumption of production was moderate, and the supply - side pressure on prices was limited [3] - **Demand**: In the week of March 19, 2026, the current apparent demand was 2.0809 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 312,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 349,100 tons. Seasonal resumption of work drove the rebound of apparent demand, but the year - on - year performance was still weak. The intensity of demand recovery was the core variable in the future [3] - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 6.5321 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,400 tons; the steel mill inventory was 2.362 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,200 tons; the total inventory was 8.8941 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47,600 tons, entering the weekly destocking for the first time. However, the absolute inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio were still at a high level, suppressing the upward space of prices [3] - **Cost and Profit**: The steel price valuation was at a low level. Geopolitical factors pushed up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [3] - **Macroeconomic Aspect**: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress held on March 5, 2026, released positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The market's expectation of infrastructure and real - estate support increased, and the sentiment received phased support [4] Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Low steel price valuation, geopolitical factors pushing up costs, policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and cost support repair [5] - **Bearish Factors**: Persistent weak terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slow destocking speed, and bearish capital position structure [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined across the board, with the main contract EC2604 dropping 6.04% and the far - month contracts falling between 2 - 8%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1693.26, up 136.77 points from last week, a month - on - month increase of 8.8%. The US proposed an agreement to end the war with 15 points to Iran, improving geopolitical expectations and causing wide - range fluctuations in the freight market. The spot price was affected by the high oil price. The euro - area unemployment rate in January dropped to a record low of 6.1%, and inflation accelerated unexpectedly, with the February CPI rising 1.9% year - on - year, higher than market expectations. The ECB maintained interest rates as expected, but the expectation of tighter policies due to imported inflation concerns increased, and the market fully priced in the ECB's resumption of interest rate hikes in July. Overall, although the geopolitical situation has deteriorated, the detour expectation has gradually materialized. Coupled with the unchanged fundamentals of the shipping industry and limited upward space in March and April, it's difficult for shipping companies' price increase announcements to be implemented. The main logic is the support from news. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track airline quotes and cargo volume data, as well as the persistence of the US - Iran conflict and the progress of the subsequent Iranian regime transition [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1803.000, down 116.0; EC secondary main contract closing price: 2364.1, down 177.10 - EC2604 - EC2608 spread: - 561.10, down 20.80; EC2604 - EC2606 spread: - 551.20, down 39.30 - EC contract basis: - 109.74, up 95.90 - EC main contract open interest: 12060, down 3207 [1] Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1693.26, up 136.77; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 1024.11, down 85.00 - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1706.95, down 3.40; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, unchanged - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1120.61, up 48.45; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1463.75, up 18.88 - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1989.00, up 48.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1839.00, up 49.00 - Average charter price (Panamax ship): unchanged; average charter price (Capesize ship): 23468.00, down 764.00 [1] Industry News - The US government proposed a 15 - condition plan to end the conflict with Iran through Pakistan, including requirements such as dismantling existing nuclear capabilities, promising not to develop nuclear weapons, and allowing full verification by the IAEA - US President Trump said the US was communicating with the "right people", Iran "wanted to reach an agreement", and the US - Iran negotiation "might be quite close to reaching an agreement" - European Central Bank Governing Council members said the ECB must be "highly flexible and vigilant" to control prices due to the approaching stagflation risk caused by the Iran war, and was ready to deal with inflation if energy price increases spread to other sectors [1] Key Points to Watch - Germany's April Gfk consumer confidence index at 15:00 on March 26 - US initial jobless claims (in 10,000 people) for the week ending March 21 at 20:30 on March 26 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillating [1] - Soybean Meal: Rising [1] - Oils: Rising [1] - Eggs: Oscillating [1] - Pigs: Oscillating Weakly [2] 2. Core Views - Corn: The futures price fluctuates with capital. Northeast corn prices are stable, while North China prices are slightly weak. The overall shipping enthusiasm of traders has increased, and the downstream inventory has been replenished. The futures market boosts the spot market, and the supply in the sales area is still tight. The futures price of the main 2605 contract first rises and then falls, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans fell due to technical selling. Brazilian soybean exports in March are expected to be 1587 million tons. The domestic spot price has slightly declined, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The market follows the change of import costs, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Oils: BMD palm oil fell due to the weak trend of competing oils. Crude oil prices limit the decline of palm oil. Indian refineries are reducing purchases. Domestic oils have collectively declined. The inventory of three major vegetable oils has slightly decreased, and demand is weak. Pay attention to the development of the Middle East situation and commodity sentiment, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Eggs: The egg futures have corrected. The spot price is stable with a few increases. The supply is sufficient, and the futures are expected to oscillate. The approaching Tomb - sweeping Festival and increased feed costs support the price, and the lower limit of the oscillation range has risen. Pay attention to supply data and the prices of surrounding commodities [1]. - Pigs: The near - term pig futures stopped falling, and the far - term rose more than the near - term. The spot price continued to decline. The supply is still abundant, and the demand has no obvious improvement. After the previous decline, it has stopped falling in the short term but is likely to remain weak. Pay attention to the impact of feed costs and surrounding commodity prices [2] 3. Market Information - Military actions against Iran will last at least three more weeks, and there are still thousands of targets to be attacked [2] - The Pentagon is considering sending more warships to the Middle East to escort oil tankers [2] - At the end of February, the balance of broad money (M2) was 349.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9% [2] - In 2026, China will strengthen the monitoring and supervision of the linkage between domestic and foreign, futures and spot markets [3] - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China increased by 69.66 million tons, the daily port clearance volume increased by 6.82 million tons, and the number of ships in port decreased by 2 [3] - The rebound of iron ore prices at the end of February was mainly due to sentiment and technical repair, lacking fundamental support [3] - The US Treasury issued a 30 - day license for countries to buy Russian oil and oil products [3] - China will organize the early release of the 2025/2026 national fertilizer commercial reserve [3] - After the US - Israel attack on Iran, the prices of energy and fertilizers soared, and the urea futures price on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rose by more than 20% [3] - Iraq is ready to resume oil exports through the Ceyhan pipeline, with a daily export volume of no more than 300,000 barrels, while the Kurdish region refuses to resume exports [4] - Bahrain Aluminium has started phased production cuts due to the stagnation of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz [4] - As of March 12, the methanol inventory at East China ports decreased by 7.2 million tons compared with March 5 [4] 4. Variety Spreads 4.1 Contract Spreads - The report provides contract spread charts for corn 5 - 9, corn starch 5 - 9, soybeans 5 - 9, soybean meal 5 - 9, soybean oil 5 - 9, palm oil 5 - 9, eggs 5 - 9, and pigs 5 - 9 [6][7][8][11] 4.2 Contract Basis - The report provides contract basis charts for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [13][15][17][23] 5. Research Team Members - Wang Na, Director of Agricultural Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times and led the team to win many awards [25] - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has rich experience and has won many awards [25] - Kong Hailan, a researcher on eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures, has participated in many important projects and is often interviewed by the media [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors remain the core concern of the market. After the Trump administration released more signals of easing the situation, most global equity markets rebounded. The domestic market also showed a shrinking - volume rebound. Attention should be paid to potential positive factors from domestic policies. If the market trading volume effectively increases in the future, it is expected to drive the market to form a trend - upward [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Macro - aspect**: The State Administration for Market Regulation held a symposium on price supervision and anti - unfair competition work, emphasizing efforts in various aspects such as deepening price supervision, rectifying "involution - style" competition, and strengthening anti - unfair competition law enforcement [1]. - **Geopolitical - aspect**: Trump stated that the US had "won" in the action against Iran, and the US proposed a 15 - condition conflict - ending plan to Iran through Pakistan, including requirements on nuclear plans, missile capabilities, and regional issues [1]. 3.2 Index Performance - **Spot Market**: A - share major indices rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.78% to 3881.28 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.5%. Most sector indices rose, with only the petroleum and petrochemical, and coal industries closing down. The environmental protection, textile and apparel, building materials, and non - ferrous metal industries led the gains. The trading volume on that day was 2.1 trillion yuan. As of the end of February, the scale of existing private equity funds reached 22.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 160 billion yuan from the end of the previous month, hitting a new high. Overseas, the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Composite PMI in March dropped to 51.4, a new low in 11 months. The manufacturing and service sectors showed different trends: the manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4, exceeding expectations, while the service PMI dropped to 51.1, also a new low in 11 months. The three major US stock indices closed down, with the Nasdaq falling 0.84% to 21761.89 points [2]. - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, the basis of IF, IH, and IM decreased. In terms of trading volume and open interest, both the trading volume and open interest of index futures decreased [2]. 3.3 Strategy - Geopolitical factors are still the core focus of the market. After the Trump administration released more signals of easing the situation, most global equity markets rebounded. The domestic market showed a shrinking - volume rebound. Attention should be paid to potential positive factors from domestic policies. If the market trading volume effectively increases in the future, it is expected to drive the market to form a trend - upward [3]. 3.4 Chart Information - **Macro - economic Charts**: Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][8][10]. - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: Table 1 shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on March 24, 2026, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc. There are also charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [13]. - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: Table 2 shows the trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM index futures, including the current values and changes. Table 3 shows the basis of index futures (futures - spot). Table 4 shows the inter - period spreads of index futures. There are also multiple charts related to the open interest, net open interest of foreign capital, basis, and inter - period spreads of different index futures contracts [17][39][45].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-3-25 市场情绪保持谨慎，贵⾦属窄幅震荡运 ⾏ 万得数据显⽰，⽇内贵⾦属窄幅震荡、反弹动能暂缓，主要受中东局势持 续紧张及美伊释放的谈判信号⽭盾影响，市场情绪趋于谨慎。据央视新闻 报道，伊朗否认与美国就结束战争进⾏谈判，与特朗普3⽉23⽇称可能很 快达成协议的⾔论相⽭盾；且伊朗新任最⾼领袖军事顾问同⽇强硬表态， 战争仍将持续⾄伊朗获得所遭受损失的"全额赔偿"。美国⽇内最新公布 的3⽉标普全球综合PMI初值51.4，低于前值51.9，显⽰商业活动扩张放 缓。预计短线贵⾦属延续超跌后修复性反弹，但投资者对中东局势仍持谨 慎态度，冲突延续、美元偏强和美债收益率上升或限制贵⾦属上⾏空间， 需密切跟踪地缘政治进展、警惕冲突反复⻛险。 黄金观点：短线延续急跌后修复性反弹，关注地缘进展、警惕冲突反 复风险 逻辑：万得数据显示，日内黄金窄幅震荡，COMEX 金价围绕 4400 美 元/盎司、SHFE 金价围绕980元/克运行，主要受中东局势紧张持续及 美伊释放的谈判信号矛盾影响。据央视新闻报道，伊朗否认与美国就 结束冲突开展谈判，其最高 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The oil price fluctuates repeatedly under the influence of news, with increased amplitude. The fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride markets are all in a state of shock. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical situations on the cost side and downstream demand [1][2][4][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors cause the oil price to fluctuate. The WTI May contract rose by 4.79%, the Brent May contract rose by 4.55%, and the SC2605 fell by 1.56%. The US proposed a cease - fire plan, and Kuwait can increase oil production if the conflict ends. API data shows an increase in US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price of fuel oil futures declined due to the sharp drop in oil prices. The market structure of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil remains strong. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East and Europe is decreasing, and the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is tight [2]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt futures declined due to the drop in oil prices. The cost of refineries is high, and the supply is tight. With the increase in temperature, the demand is expected to rise, and the price is expected to remain high [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of polyester futures such as TA605, EG2605, and PX605 all declined. The downstream production and sales are weak, and the price follows the cost to fluctuate widely [2][4]. - **Rubber**: The price of natural rubber futures is affected by the change in geopolitical situations and the decline in butadiene production. The new rubber production is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is weak. The price difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber may continue to widen [4]. - **Methanol**: The inventory of methanol starts to decline. The Iranian device has the expectation of resuming production, which may suppress the price increase, and the market is volatile [4][5]. - **Polyolefin**: The upstream device maintenance and production reduction are common, and the downstream demand is released. However, the geopolitical risk pushes up the cost, compressing the downstream profit, and the market is in a state of shock [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The price of polyvinyl chloride fluctuates. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based method, and the profit of the calcium - carbide method is strong. The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand will gradually recover [5][6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on March 24, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - Kuwait can quickly increase oil production if the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran ends. A Thai oil tanker has successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz, which is regarded as a positive signal [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle chips [12][13][14][15][17][18][21][22][24][26][28]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report provides the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [30][32][34][36][39][40][41]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [44][46][49][52][55][57]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides the spread and ratio charts of inter - variety of various energy - chemical products, including crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W, fuel oil high - low sulfur, fuel oil/asphalt, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, PP - LLDPE, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber [59][61][63][67]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report provides the production profit and processing fee charts of various energy - chemical products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol [69][71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the research team, including the deputy director of the research institute, the research director of energy and chemical industry, the natural rubber/polyester analyst, and the methanol/propylene/pure benzene PE/PP/PVC analyst, and their professional backgrounds and achievements [74][75][76][77].