2025.06. 25 本文字数：2087，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 中国人民银行数据显示，今年前5个月，政府债券净融资6.31万亿元，同比多3.81万亿元。 目前官方并未披露今年财政增量储备政策细节，但近些年实践中，财政增量政策思路愈加清晰。 6月24日，财政部部长蓝佛安向十四届全国人大常委会第十六次会议作《国务院关于2024年中央决 算的报告》（下称《报告》）。《报告》介绍2024年中央财政收支决算情况等，并部署下一步财政 重点工作。 据新华社报道，《报告》显示，下一步，财政部门将用好用足更加积极的财政政策，根据形势变化及 时推出增量储备政策，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，全力巩固经济发展和社会稳定的基本 面。 "加快政策落地，强化部门协同，多措并举帮扶困难企业，尽早发行和使用超长期特别国债、专项债 券等，发挥财政资金引导和带动效应，支持做好'两重''两新'等工作，推动促消费、扩投资、稳外 贸、惠民生等政策早见效、多见效。"蓝佛安说。 今年4月底召开的中共中央政治局会议指出，要不断完善稳就业稳经济的政策工具箱，既定政策早出 台早见效，根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策，加强超常规 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, while also preparing for incremental reserve policies based on changing circumstances [1][2]. Fiscal Policy Implementation - The current proactive fiscal policy mainly focuses on accelerating the implementation of existing policies, particularly the issuance of government bonds, without introducing new incremental policies [2][5]. - National general public budget expenditure for this year reached 11.2953 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, significantly higher than the revenue growth rate of -0.3% [2]. - From January to May, government fund budget expenditure was 3.2125 trillion yuan, up 16% year-on-year, also exceeding the revenue growth rate of -6.9% [2]. Government Bond Issuance - The rapid issuance of government bonds has provided necessary funding for fiscal expenditure, with 6.29 trillion yuan in national bonds issued in the first five months, a 38.5% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - Net financing from government bonds reached 6.31 trillion yuan in the first five months, an increase of 3.81 trillion yuan year-on-year [3]. Incremental Fiscal Policies - Although specific details on this year's incremental reserve policies have not been disclosed, the approach has become clearer over recent years, focusing on systematic design and policy integration [4][5]. - Experts suggest that incremental fiscal policies are typically introduced in the second half of the year to meet annual economic development goals, often involving the issuance of additional government bonds and other financial instruments [5][6]. Debt Management and Support Measures - This year, refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 1.63 trillion yuan in the first five months, completing 81.5% of the annual limit of 2 trillion yuan [6]. - Experts recommend considering the early issuance of the 2 trillion yuan debt limit for next year to alleviate local repayment pressures [6]. Real Estate and Investment Support - Recent government meetings have emphasized the need for robust support for real estate development, including policy backing in planning, land, finance, and fiscal aspects [7]. - The Ministry of Finance is working on establishing a childcare subsidy system and aims to finalize the project list for 2025 "two重" construction and central budget investments by the end of June [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes five key perspectives—stock market, real estate, exports, consumption, and technology—as essential indicators for understanding economic signals and market trends. Stock Market - Global capital flows are showing a trend of rebalancing, with funds shifting from the crowded US market to less crowded markets like Europe and Hong Kong, where the German stock market rose by 21% and Hong Kong stocks by 19% from the beginning of the year until May 21 [8] - In the first half of the year, foreign capital saw a net inflow into the Hong Kong market of $7.3 billion, while the mainland market experienced a net outflow of $5 billion [8] - For the next 12 months, major Chinese stock indices are expected to see strong earnings growth, with the Hang Seng Technology Index and Shanghai Composite Index projected to grow over 20% [14] - The recovery in consumer spending, particularly in sectors like tourism and dining, is expected to drive growth in the stock market [15] Real Estate - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a 3.2% year-on-year decline in sales from January to April 2025, which is a significant improvement compared to a 13.9% decline for the entire previous year [21] - Major cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou have seen new and second-hand home prices rise since September 2024, indicating a recovery trend [23] - The government is focusing on high-quality housing, with new regulations aimed at improving residential project standards [31] - Land acquisition efforts have accelerated, with 171 cities announcing land storage plans totaling 391.8 billion yuan, which is expected to reduce inventory pressure [34] Exports - China's exports from January to May 2025 reached $1,484.85 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with significant growth in March and April [39] - Exports to ASEAN countries grew by 12.2%, with Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia showing the highest growth rates [44] - The export of high-tech products accounted for 60% of total exports, with a notable increase in the export of batteries, which grew by 22.1% in the first four months of 2025 [48][49] - The export growth rate is expected to slow down in the second half of the year, with key policy events and US tariff deadlines being critical factors to monitor [50][51] Consumption - Despite concerns about declining consumer sentiment, a McKinsey report indicates that consumer confidence is stabilizing, particularly among rural residents and younger generations [62][64] - Urbanization is contributing to new consumer units, with the urbanization rate projected to increase from 65.2% in 2022 to 67.0% in 2024 [57] - The trend of consumers being willing to spend more of their income is improving, with the proportion of income spent on consumption expected to stabilize [58] - The 618 shopping festival showed strong performance in the 3C and home appliance sectors, indicating a potential rebound in consumer spending [72] Technology - Investment opportunities in technology are focused on sectors with increasing penetration rates, particularly in AI applications and smart driving technologies [76] - The market for humanoid robots and low-altitude economy sectors is expected to see significant growth, supported by favorable policies and reduced manufacturing costs [82] - The semiconductor industry is highlighted as a key area for profitability within the robotics sector, with substantial projected net profits for chip companies [84]

从税收细分项来看，四大税种中，国内增值税、国内消费税和个人所得税处于正增区间，企业所得税增速持续为负，但增速改善。1至5月国内增值税同比增 长2.4%，较前值增幅扩大0.6个百分点，增速改善的主因在于去年低基数效应。1至5月企业所得税同比增速为-2.5%，较前值降幅收窄0.6个百分点，企业所得 税增速落入负增区间，指向企业生产经营端修复进度仍待改善。1至5月国内消费税同比增长1.6%，较前值增幅收窄0.2百分点，增幅收窄主因在于去年基数 相对较高。1至5月个人所得税同比增速为8.2%，增速改善也与去年低基数效应有关。 值得注意的是，国内增值税同比增长2.4%，达30850亿元，个人所得税也保持较快增长。此外，证券交易印花税表现尤为突出，同比大幅增长52.4%至668亿 元，反映出资本市场活跃度显著回升。 联储证券研究院副院长沈夏宜表示，收入端基本面修复加快，一般公共预算收入累计同比增速降幅有所收窄，税收收入虽连续负增但趋势向好，非税收入则 维持中性水平。 今年1至5月土地出让金收入累计同比增速为-11.9%，连续落入负增区间；同时，政府性基金收入负增，新增专项债发行进度偏慢。沈夏宜认为，这印证了房 地产与土地 ...

Group 1 - The market is sensitive to seasonal fluctuations in liquidity during June, with concerns about cross-quarter funding pressures potentially leading to increased interest rate volatility [1] - The central bank's recent operations indicate a clear intention to maintain reasonable liquidity, conducting two reverse repurchase operations this month to alleviate concerns about a "liquidity crunch" [1] - Short- and medium-term bonds have performed well, leading to a decline in long-term interest rates, while bond funds are adopting a strategy of extending duration to lock in higher yields during the interest rate downcycle [1] Group 2 - Future market developments will depend on several factors, including the actual performance of funding rates in the last few trading days of June and early July, which will validate the central bank's supportive measures [2] - The market will also monitor whether institutions continue to extend duration and if the consensus expectations can be sustained [2] - The timing of the central bank's announcement to restart bond purchases is crucial; if short-term benefits do not materialize as expected, the bond market may face a correction similar to the first quarter [2]

在宏观经济的大棋局中，房地产市场始终占据着举足轻重的地位。近年来，随着国内外经济形势的风云变幻，我国房地产市场也经历着深刻的变革与调整。 从政策端的频繁发力，到市场供需结构的悄然转变，再到行业发展模式的积极探索，房地产市场的每一个动向都牵动着各方的神经。 尤其是2025年，房地产将处在一个非常关键的时期，对未来起到起承转合的作用。 自 2025 年以来，从4月的会再到6月13日的会，一系列关于房地产市场的重要决策部署不断出台，释放出强烈的政策信号。政策基调从过去的 "止跌回稳" 逐 步升级为 "持续巩固稳定态势"，这一转变意义深远。 在 "优存量" 方面，各地积极探索优化存量商品房收购政策。纷纷参与到存量商品房的收购行动中，将其转化为保障性住房、租赁住房等多种形式。在一些 城市，通过收购闲置的商业公寓并改造为租赁住房，既盘活了大量的闲置资产，又极大地增加了租赁住房的供给，有效缓解了租赁市场房源紧张的局面。这 一举措不仅消化了库存，完善了住房供应体系，还改善了房地产企业的现金流状况，助力企业轻装上阵应对市场调整。 在金融政策方面，对房地产企业合理融资需求的支持力度持续加大。银行等金融机构积极优化对房地产企业的信 ...

➢ 本周（20250616-20250622）外盘 HVO/SAF 价格环比上涨。本周四， 外盘 SAF 到岸价报 2127.65 美元/吨，环比上周上涨 7.71%；外盘 HVO 离岸价 报 2236.40 元/吨，环比上周上涨 8.69%。欧洲 Ucome 离岸价报 1301.85 欧元 /吨，环比上周四上涨 4.94%，涨跌幅度为+61.31 欧元/吨；中国 Ucome 离岸 价报 1114.50 美元/吨，环比上周上涨 1.36%，涨跌幅度为+15.00 美元/吨；东 南亚生物柴油离岸价报 1104.50 美元/吨，环比上周上涨 4.89%，涨跌幅度为 +51.50 元/吨。从国内价差端来看，若考虑一个月地沟油库存，本周四，国内出 口欧洲生物柴油价差达 3497 元/吨，周度环比变动幅度为+387 元/吨。 生物柴油行业周报（20250616-20250622） SAF 价格周内上涨近 8%，Ucome 多地离岸价上涨 2025 年 06 月 23 日 ➢ 本周（20250616-20250622）国内潲水油与地沟油价格重心上移。本周四， 国内潲水油平均报价为 6810 元/吨，较上周环比变化幅度为+ ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant changes in the e-commerce landscape during the 618 shopping festival, particularly focusing on Tmall's new approach to reporting gross merchandise volume (GMV) by excluding returns, which reflects a deeper transformation in business models [2][3] E-commerce Trends - Tmall's cancellation of "full reduction" promotions and introduction of "official discounts" has simplified the shopping experience, leading to a 10% year-on-year increase in GMV, marking the fastest growth in three years [3][12] - The shift from promotional efficiency to long-term effectiveness is emphasized, with platforms now focusing on understanding market demands and supporting brand growth rather than just driving sales [5][10] Brand Dynamics - New consumer demands are reshaping brand strategies, with brands needing to adapt quickly to fragmented consumption patterns and rising competition from both new and established players [6][9] - Brands like Perfect Diary have experienced rapid growth followed by declines due to high marketing costs and insufficient brand value, highlighting the challenges in sustaining growth post-initial success [7][9] Platform Strategies - E-commerce platforms are evolving to become value creation spaces rather than just transaction venues, focusing on brand innovation and sustainable growth [10][14] - Tmall's strategies include providing data insights to brands, enabling them to respond to consumer trends effectively, as seen with brands like Mammut and Shuangshan [12][14] Consumer Engagement - The article discusses the importance of understanding consumer behavior and preferences, with Tmall implementing strategies to enhance user engagement and retention, achieving an 88% store retention rate [18] - The dual approach of simplifying consumer purchasing processes while enhancing brand support through targeted marketing and data insights is crucial for fostering long-term relationships between brands and consumers [17][18]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：高拓 （13705969808） 5月广义财政收入同比-1.2%，4月同比2.7%；5月广义财政支出同比4%，4月同比12.9%。 报告摘要 一、为什么关注个税？ 1-5 月税收收入降幅收窄（比 1-4 月收窄 0.5 个百分点）， 5 月税收收入分项中， 个人所得税 （下称"个 税"） 增幅领跑，且已连续两月高增，从整体承压的税收收入中"突围"，值得关注 ： 5 月个税同比增长 12.3% 、领跑各税种，此前 4 月也录得 9% 增幅（仅次于耕地占用税）；累计增幅而言， 1-5 月我国四大 税种（增值税、企业所得税、消费税、个税）仅个税为正（ 8.2% ），并大幅高于全年预算安排（ 3.2% ），在今年税收收入整体受国内需求不足，价格水平对以现价计算的财政收入持续产生影响、部分重点税 源行业增长放缓、外贸面临较大不确定性等因素制约下，个税的"突围"迹象值得关注。 二、个税高增能否持续？ 个税高增或非昙花一现，年内或有一定持续性。 从占个税近 8 成的两大构成——工资薪金（ 2023 年占个 税 65.5% ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2025 06 22 年 月 日 固定收益点评 财政支出节奏放缓——5 月财政数据点评 5 月广义财政收入同比再度转负，财政支出力度明显回落。收入端，加总一般公共 预算收入和政府债基金收入，5 月广义财政收入同比-1.2%，收入增速再次转负（4 月同比 2.7%）。支出端，5 月广义财政支出同比增速 4.0%，较前值 12.9%明显回 落。累计看，1-5 月广义财政收入累计同比-1.3%，广义财政支出累计同比 6.6%。 5 月年内税收增速下降，非税同比年内首次转负，一般预算收入增速下滑。2025 年 5 月，一般公共预算收入当月同比 0.1%（（前值 1.9%），税收收入同比 0.6%（（前 值 1.9%），非税收入同比-2.2%（（前值 1.7%），税收收入增速下降，非税同比增速 年内首次转负。分中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算收入当月同比增长 0.4%，地 方一般公共预算本级收入增长-0.1%。 税收方面，个人所得税、国内增值税增速较高，房产相关税收降幅较大。5 月税收 同比 0.56%，四大税种中，国内增值税同比 6.1%（（4 月同比 0.9% ...