Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View - The report suggests paying attention to central bank policy operations, and recommends holding medium - term long positions [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - On Tuesday, bond futures opened higher, rose in the morning, then declined, and maintained a narrow - range oscillation in the afternoon. Only TS slightly declined, while the rest slightly rose [1]. - The money market remained tight, with DR001 rising to 1.51%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 403.8 billion yuan, with a net injection of 286.3 billion yuan [1]. Important News - The State Council General Office issued "Several Measures to Further Promote Private Investment". - The National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium for private enterprises, stating that it would create better development conditions for business entities [2]. Market Judgment - Today's news was light. The A - share market closed lower, and the bond market did not benefit significantly. - The money market remained tight. Despite increased open - market injections, money market rates continued to rise. The short - end yields of cash bonds rose slightly, while the medium - and long - end were less affected. - The market is not worried about liquidity but lacks trading hotspots. It is difficult to change the oscillation pattern in the short term. Pay attention to monetary and credit data tomorrow [2]. Data Comparison | Contract | 2025 - 11 - 11 Price | 2025 - 11 - 10 Price | Today's Change | 2025 - 11 - 11 Position (Hand) | 2025 - 11 - 10 Position (Hand) | Today's Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.46 | 102.466 | - 0.006 | 85266 | 85232 | 34 | | TF2512 | 105.935 | 105.93 | 0.005 | 166730 | 172702 | - 5972 | | T2512 | 108.495 | 108.485 | 0.01 | 288671 | 291294 | - 2623 | | TL2512 | 116.34 | 116.3 | 0.04 | 183726 | 184847 | - 1121 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0211 | - 0.0267 | 0.0056 | TS Main Transaction (Hand) | 28422 | 24929 | 3493 | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0235 | - 0.025 | 0.0015 | TF Main Transaction (Hand) | 48332 | 49109 | - 777 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0202 | 0.0205 | - 0.0003 | T Main Transaction (Hand) | 52193 | 58830 | - 6637 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.1186 | 0.1987 | - 0.0801 | TL Main Transaction (Hand) | 73470 | 96097 | - 22627 | [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the bond futures market has shown a slight upward trend after a period of weak fluctuations, driven primarily by institutional behavior and sentiment rather than fundamental economic factors [1][2][3] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a net purchase of 20 billion yuan in government bonds on November 4, which has positively impacted market expectations and supported the bond market [2] - Economic indicators show a mild recovery, with October CPI rising by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, while PPI has turned positive for the first time this year, indicating a gradual price recovery [2][3] Group 2 - Export data for October shows signs of weakness, with a clear trend of marginal slowdown expected in November and December, necessitating strong policy support for domestic demand [3] - The overall economic growth pressure is manageable, with a GDP growth rate of 5.2% for the first three quarters, leading to expectations of continued policy implementation without the necessity for interest rate cuts [3] - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile trend due to a combination of reasonable liquidity support and the influence of a strong equity market, which may constrain bond market performance [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market may be desensitized to weak foreign trade data, while strong inflation data may boost inflation expectations and suppress bond market performance. In the short - term, the bond market may operate weakly and stably due to lack of incremental positive factors [5]. - It is expected that the bond market will be weak first and then stable next week [5]. - For strategies, in the short - term, a defensive approach with a wait - and - see attitude is recommended for unilateral trading. For arbitrage, try to go long on the current - next quarter inter - period spread and hold short positions on the 30Y - 7Y term spread [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Macroeconomic Data Analysis - **Foreign Trade**: In October, China's export amount decreased by 1.1% year - on - year and import amount increased by 1.0% year - on - year, both falling short of expectations. The negative export growth was related to a high base last year and trade disputes in October [9]. - **Inflation**: In October, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year and month - on - month. Core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, better than expected. PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month, also better than expected [20][25]. - **Market Liquidity**: This week, the central bank net withdrew 15722 billion yuan of short - term liquidity, but the market funds were balanced and loose. Next week, government bond issuance will increase, with a net payment scale of about 3691.83 billion yuan, but the impact on funds is expected to be controllable [31][36]. 3.1.2 Futures Market Analysis - **Valuation**: The next - quarter contracts are generally over - valued compared to the current - quarter contracts, and the T contract IRR is also high compared to market funds. The IRR of TL, T, TF, TS current - quarter contracts are 1.4099%, 1.8770%, 1.6519%, 1.6209% respectively; the next - quarter contracts are 1.6357%, 1.8782%, 1.6831%, 1.7064% respectively [38][42]. - **Position Transfer**: As of Friday, the position transfer progress of TS, TF, T, TL contracts were 17.0%, 18.3%, 18.4%, 27.8% respectively. It is expected to accelerate next week, and may drive the inter - period spread to widen [47]. 3.2 Second Part: Relevant Data Tracking - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Data on the trading volume and open interest of TS, TF, T, TL contracts are provided [52]. - **Contract Spreads**: Data on the spreads between TS, TF, T, TL contracts are provided [55]. - **Yield and Spread**: Data on the yield of treasury bond cash bonds and the term spread of treasury bond yields are provided, as well as data on the US 10 - year treasury bond yield and the Sino - US 10 - year treasury bond spread [57][59]. - **Exchange Rate**: Data on the US dollar index and the offshore US dollar - RMB exchange rate are provided [61].

Market Overview - The overall funding environment was loose last week, with slight increases in bond yields and a decline in government bond futures [1][5] - As of November 7, the 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.81%, up 0.42 basis points from the previous Thursday and up 1.45 basis points from the previous week [1][2] - The market's expectation for bond purchases by the central bank was somewhat overstated, leading to a weaker bond market after the actual implementation [1][2] Bond Market Performance - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield showing mixed performance throughout the week, ending at 1.81% [2][5] - The China Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.86% over the week, with significant trading volume of 3,426 billion yuan [4] - The issuance of local bonds decreased significantly, with a total of 916.07 billion yuan issued, down 1,790.75 billion yuan from the previous week [8] Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted a total of 4,958 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos last week, with a net withdrawal of funds [12][14] - The central bank resumed government bond trading, injecting 200 billion yuan into the banking system, which was lower than market expectations but still significant [13][20] Credit Market Activity - A total of 448 credit bonds were issued last week, with a total scale of 5,079.87 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 1,377.19 billion yuan from the previous week [9] - The issuance of financial bonds amounted to 1,270.70 billion yuan, while corporate bonds and medium-term notes also saw significant issuance [9] International Market Insights - In the U.S., the consumer confidence index fell to 50.3, indicating economic concerns, while the labor market showed mixed signals with job growth slightly above expectations [15][26] - European bond yields generally increased, with the 10-year German bond yield rising by 4.6 basis points over the week [17] - Japanese investors reduced their holdings of overseas bonds while increasing their investments in domestic bonds [19]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Report's Core View - The central bank's 7D OMO net withdrawal this week reached the highest level since February 2024, but the liquidity remained generally loose at the beginning of the month. After the large - scale maturity of the 3M repurchase on Friday, the liquidity tightened marginally, but the DR001 remained stable at slightly above 1.3%. The central bank may increase hedging after such a tightening, and the liquidity is expected to return to stability [3][7]. - The government bond net payment scale will rise to a new high since mid - July next week. The central bank's possible increase in the scale of buying treasury bonds in the open market to replace repurchase operations to supplement medium - and long - term liquidity is worthy of attention [3][18]. - It is estimated that the government bond issuance scale in November will be about 1.84 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 1.15 trillion yuan, an increase of about 620 billion yuan compared with October. The government bond issuance in December is expected to be about 2.37 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 77 billion yuan [3][30]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs I. Money Market 1.1 This Week's Liquidity Review - The central bank's 7D OMO net withdrawal was 1.5722 trillion yuan this week, reaching the highest level since February 2024. The 3M repurchase operation on Wednesday offset the maturity on Friday. The liquidity remained loose at the beginning of the month and tightened marginally on Friday after the 3M repurchase maturity, but the DR001 remained stable at slightly above 1.3% [3][7]. - After the cross - month period, the repurchase market activity increased. The average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase rose by 1.27 trillion yuan to 7.97 trillion yuan compared with last week. The overall scale of pledged repurchase returned above 12 trillion yuan but decreased significantly on Friday [3][14]. - The new - caliber liquidity gap index fluctuated downward to - 838.3 billion on Thursday and rebounded to - 488.7 billion on Friday, still lower than last Friday. The weekly excess reserve ratio dropped to 0.9%, a new low since mid - September [3][14][18]. 1.2 Next Week's Liquidity Outlook - The treasury bond payment scale next week is expected to be 315.9 billion yuan, and the local bond issuance scale in 12 regions is 285.1 billion yuan, with an actual payment scale of 230.5 billion yuan. The government bond net payment scale will rise from 36.8 billion yuan this week to 424.2 billion yuan, a new high since mid - July [20][22]. - The 7 - day reverse repurchase maturity scale next week will decrease from 2.07 trillion yuan to 495.8 billion yuan. The new stock issuance of Nante Technology on the Beijing Stock Exchange may bring some disturbances to the exchange liquidity price from Tuesday to Wednesday. The central bank is expected to increase liquidity injection to stabilize the market [3][38]. II. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The 1Y Shibor rate dropped 1.7BP to 1.65% this week, and the secondary rate of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit rose 0.2BP to 1.63% [3][39]. - The net financing scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit rose by 1.01 billion yuan to 163.8 billion yuan this week. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 23.9 billion yuan, - 57.5 billion yuan, 170.6 billion yuan, and 33.1 billion yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 1Y certificates of deposit decreased to 24%, and the 6M certificates of deposit had the highest issuance proportion at 38% [3][42]. - The issuance success rates of state - owned banks and joint - stock banks decreased this week, while those of city commercial banks and rural commercial banks increased. The issuance spread between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks for 1Y certificates of deposit widened [43]. - The supply - demand relative strength index of certificates of deposit first decreased and then increased this week. The 3M supply - demand index rose, while the other maturity varieties decreased slightly [54]. III. Bill Market - The bill rates rebounded significantly this week but remained at a low level overall. The 3M and 6M national bill rates rose 36BP and 41BP respectively compared with October 31, reaching 0.37% and 0.61% [59]. IV. Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - The bond market adjusted slightly this week, and the credit spread narrowed slightly. The willingness of large banks to increase bond holdings weakened, while the willingness of trading - type institutions to increase bond holdings decreased significantly, and the willingness of allocation - type institutions to increase bond holdings increased [62].

Core Viewpoint - The latest C50 Wind Index indicates that liquidity pressure in November is expected to increase compared to October, with a liquidity gap around 2 trillion yuan, as many market institutions anticipate seasonal pressures due to the maturity of financial instruments [1][2][3]. Liquidity Conditions - In October, the central bank maintained a relatively proactive liquidity injection strategy, with a net injection of 4,000 billion yuan, the largest monthly value since March 2025 [2]. - The central bank's operations included a 1.1 trillion yuan front-loaded reverse repo to ease the liquidity pressure at the beginning of the month [2]. - The liquidity gap for November is projected to be around 2 trillion yuan, with some institutions suggesting it could exceed 3 trillion yuan [3]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank has restarted open market operations for government bonds, which many institutions believe could replace the need for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut [1][7]. - The necessity for an RRR cut in the fourth quarter is perceived to be lower, with 17 out of 20 institutions indicating a reduced likelihood of such a move [7][8]. - Analysts suggest that the resumption of government bond trading may serve as a substitute for RRR cuts, allowing for continued liquidity support without aggressive monetary easing [8][9]. Market Reactions - The bond market is expected to experience renewed downward trends, with the 10-year government bond yield potentially approaching the low of 1.7% seen in August [9]. - The overall sentiment in the market indicates that while the central bank's easing measures may be less aggressive, the need for monetary policy support remains due to ongoing economic challenges [9].

Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 92.8 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on November 6, with a total bid amount of 92.8 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 92.8 billion yuan. On the same day, 342.6 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan [1] Funding Conditions - The interbank funding conditions remained loose, with overnight repurchase rates for deposit-taking institutions hovering around 1.31%. The overnight quotes in the anonymous X-repo system also remained around 1.3%, indicating ample supply. Non-bank institutions' pledging of certificates of deposit and credit bonds for overnight funding maintained quotes around 1.4%. Traders noted that there were few disruptive factors at the beginning of the month, and liquidity remained stable and loose, with no concerns for the future market outlook following the central bank's actions [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major national and joint-stock banks was around 1.63%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [8] Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed a decline, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.28%, the 10-year main contract down by 0.09%, the 5-year main contract down by 0.03%, and the 2-year main contract up by 0.01% [11] Real Estate Sector Financing - In October, the total bond financing in the real estate sector reached 51.24 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 76.9%. Among this, credit bond financing accounted for 32.7 billion yuan, up 50.7% year-on-year, making up 63.8% of the total. The average bond financing interest rate in October was 2.56%, down by 0.42 percentage points year-on-year and 0.13 percentage points month-on-month [13] Global Economic Indicators - South Korea's central bank reported a record high current account surplus of 13.47 billion USD in September, up from 9.15 billion USD the previous month. This marked the largest current account surplus recorded for September and the second-largest monthly surplus overall [15] - The global manufacturing purchasing managers' index for October was reported at 49.7%, remaining stable compared to the previous month and indicating a slow recovery in the global economy [15] Green Finance - Five banks have joined the "trillion club" for green credit, with the total scale of green bonds nearing 2 trillion yuan [16] Debt Restructuring - Country Garden achieved a significant breakthrough in its debt restructuring, with plans to reduce overseas debt by approximately 84 billion yuan. Additionally, Sunac completed a second restructuring of both domestic and overseas debts, reducing debt by nearly 60 billion yuan [16] Bond Market Trends - The global bond issuance boom has led to a record sales figure of 5.94 trillion USD this year [17]

Core Viewpoint - The central focus of the news is on the upcoming expiration of over 20 trillion yuan in reverse repos, alongside other monetary policy tools, which is expected to maintain a stable liquidity environment in November [1][4]. Group 1: Market Operations - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will see 20,680 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing this week, with specific amounts maturing each day from November 3 to 7 [1]. - On November 6, the PBOC conducted a reverse repo operation of 928 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2,498 billion yuan due to the larger amount of maturing repos compared to the operation volume [2]. - The total amount of reverse repos and MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) maturing in November is approximately 10 trillion yuan, which is 1 trillion yuan less than in October [3]. Group 2: Liquidity Outlook - Analysts believe that the liquidity pressure in November will be manageable, with expectations of stable overnight funding rates slightly above the policy rate [4]. - The anticipated decrease in tax payments and the PBOC's resumption of government bond transactions are expected to support liquidity and enhance market confidence [3][4]. - Historical trends suggest that MLF and reverse repos often exhibit a "see-saw" effect, indicating that the PBOC's operations will likely balance out liquidity needs without significant fluctuations in funding rates [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming expiration of over 2 trillion yuan in reverse repos and the implications for the liquidity environment in November, suggesting that the overall funding situation will remain stable due to supportive monetary policies [3][4]. Group 1: Market Operations - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will see 20,680 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing this week, with specific amounts maturing each day from November 3 to 7 [3][4]. - On November 6, the PBOC conducted a reverse repo operation of 928 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2,498 billion yuan due to the larger amount of maturing repos [5][6]. - The PBOC is expected to continue using various policy tools to inject medium- to long-term liquidity into the market, including an anticipated 1 trillion yuan in reverse repos and 900 billion yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) maturing this month [6][7]. Group 2: Liquidity Analysis - Analysts believe that the liquidity pressure in November will be manageable, with a decrease in tax payments and a significant reduction in the scale of maturing certificates of deposit [7][8]. - Historical data indicates that the relationship between MLF and reverse repos often shows a "one rises, the other falls" pattern, suggesting that the PBOC will balance liquidity through these instruments [9][10]. - The overnight Shibor rate was reported at 1.3130%, showing a slight decrease, while the 7-day Shibor was at 1.4210%, also down slightly, indicating stable funding rates despite the net withdrawals [6][10].

Core Viewpoint - The overall liquidity pressure in November is expected to remain low under supportive monetary policy, despite the expiration of over 20 trillion yuan in reverse repos [1][4]. Group 1: Market Operations - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will see 20,680 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing this week, with significant amounts maturing daily [1][2]. - On November 6, the PBOC conducted a reverse repo operation of 928 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2,498 billion yuan due to maturing repos [2][3]. - The PBOC is expected to continue using various policy tools, including reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations, to inject medium- to long-term liquidity into the market [1][3]. Group 2: Liquidity Analysis - Analysts believe that the liquidity pressure in November will decrease by approximately 1,000 billion yuan compared to October, supported by a reduction in tax payment scales [3][4]. - The net issuance of government bonds in October was 20 billion yuan, indicating a stable injection of long-term liquidity into the banking system [3]. - Historical trends suggest that MLF and reverse repos often exhibit a "see-saw" effect, with the PBOC managing liquidity through various instruments based on market conditions [4][5]. Group 3: Interest Rates - The overnight Shibor rate was reported at 1.3130%, showing a slight decline, while the 7-day Shibor rate was at 1.4210%, also down [2]. - Analysts expect the overnight funding rates to remain slightly above the policy rate, with minimal fluctuations expected throughout November [4][5]. - The anticipated stability in funding rates is supported by the PBOC's ongoing operations and the historical performance of liquidity in November [5].