Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In the short - term, market liquidity tightening may increase the selling pressure in the precious metals market, but the escalating situation between the US and Iran may drive the safe - haven buying demand in the precious metals market, and there is strong support below. In the medium to long - term, the structural logic of deepening geopolitical rifts and weakening US dollar credit remains unchanged, and gold still has appeal as a preferred hedge asset. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 1,153.06 yuan/gram, down 28.9 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 21,854 yuan/kilogram, up 209 yuan. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 126,419 lots, down 13,351 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver are 5,406 lots, down 668 lots. - The main contract trading volume of Shanghai Gold is 418,498 lots, up 25,719 lots; the main contract trading volume of Shanghai Silver is 482,764 lots, down 115,387 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold is 105,033 kilograms, down 27 kilograms; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Silver is 294,823 kilograms, down 12,661 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 1,153.18 yuan, down 28.82 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No. 1 silver is 20,939 yuan, down 1,748 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 0.12 yuan/gram, up 0.12 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 915 yuan/gram, down 1,957 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings are 1,099.04 tons, down 2.29 tons; the SLV Silver ETF holdings are 15,981.38 tons, up 79.14 tons. - The non - commercial net long position of gold in CFTC is 159,177 contracts, down 738 contracts; the non - commercial net long position of silver in CFTC is 22,260 contracts, down 1,743 contracts. - The total quarterly supply of gold is 1,302.8 tons, down 0.19 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 32,056 tons, up 482 tons. - The total quarterly demand for gold is 1,345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; the total annual demand for silver is 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index is 99.27, up 0.72; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.77, up 0.01. - The VIX volatility index is 23.57, up 2.13; the CBOE gold volatility indicator is 38.77, up 3.94. - The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price is 1.35, up 0.06; the gold - silver ratio is 61.91, up 5.75 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump vowed to "spare no expense" on the Iran issue, triggering a new round of stock selling, rising energy prices, and reigniting market inflation concerns. Traders' bets on the Fed's second interest rate cut within the year dropped to 50%. - The conflict in the Middle East continues to spread. Iran is counter - attacking while being bombed, claiming to have hit multiple US military targets in the Middle East. Israel launched a "massive strike" on Tehran, claiming to have destroyed many Iranian ballistic missile - related facilities. - Kevin Warsh, the nominee for Fed Chairman, will slowly advance the Fed's balance - sheet reduction, aiming to restore the Fed's balance - sheet size to the level before the 2008 crisis. - Fed's Williams said that if inflation continues to fall after the impact of tariffs fades, the Fed will have reason to further cut interest rates. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said that if inflation cools, one or two interest rate cuts later this year may be appropriate, but the Middle East war may lead to a situation where the Fed pauses action for a longer time [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - On March 5th at 20:30, the US January trade balance data will be released. - On March 4th at 21:15, the US ADP private employment report was announced; at 23:00, the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI was announced. - On March 5th at 20:30, the number of US Challenger corporate layoffs in February will be released [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Today, Treasury bond futures continued to trade in a narrow range. The main market logic has shifted from the risk - aversion sentiment caused by the geopolitical crisis to macro - concerns about the soaring global inflation triggered by the tight global energy supply. The manufacturing PMI in February 2026 was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating insufficient effective domestic demand. The future monetary and credit environment is expected to be loose, and there are still expectations for interest rate cuts, but they will likely be structural policies, and the possibility of an across - the - board interest rate cut in the short term is low. Therefore, the upward momentum and downward space of Treasury bond futures are both limited, and they will mainly trade in a narrow range in the short term [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry News and Related Charts - On March 4, the central bank conducted 40.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%, a bid volume of 40.5 billion yuan, and a winning bid volume of 40.5 billion yuan. Wind data showed that 409.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 369 billion yuan [5] - On March 4, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that in February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, showing an improvement in the non - manufacturing prosperity level [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - For the Middle East geopolitical conflict, it is necessary to use the "risk preference shock" framework for analysis. The current conflict has not shaken the underlying framework of the five major global market macro narratives, but has strengthened the trading priority of the long - term geopolitical narrative. The impact depth of this conflict on the market mainly depends on the disruption degree and duration of the Strait of Hormuz. Attention should be paid to the intensity of the conflict and two core signals to determine the peak of the conflict intensity. There is a risk of the risk preference shock evolving into a liquidity crisis [2]. - The Middle East conflict has hit the global market risk preference, and the A - share market has also been affected. The geopolitical risk is high, and the market volatility has increased. It is recommended to appropriately reduce positions [4]. - In the bond market, short - term bonds perform slightly better due to loose liquidity, while medium - and long - term bonds show a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to hold a small number of medium - term long positions in T2606 and temporarily wait and see in the short term [5]. - In the commodity market, the prices of various commodities are affected by the Middle East situation. For different varieties, corresponding investment strategies are proposed, such as focusing on structural long - making opportunities for lithium carbonate after the correction, and taking a long - position layout on dips for industrial silicon in the medium term [7][9]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Continue to focus on the Middle East situation. The statements of Fed officials show uncertainty about interest rate cuts in 2026 due to the war situation. The Iran situation is tense, with various events such as the destruction of US missile defense systems by Iran, and the consideration of military actions by some countries. The US Senate will vote on the "war powers resolution" [1]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The RMB depreciated against the US dollar. The strength of the US dollar is supported by Trump's tough stance on the Iran issue and relevant news about the Fed Chairman nominee. The subsequent impact on the US dollar index and the USD/CNY exchange rate depends on whether the conflict is a blitzkrieg or a protracted war. Short - term export enterprises are recommended to lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.93, and import enterprises are recommended to adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 6.82 [2][3]. - **Stock Index**: The escalation of the Middle East conflict has reduced market risk preference, causing the stock index to fall. The uncertainty of geopolitical risks is high, and it is recommended to reduce positions to avoid risks [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market did not get a boost from the sharp decline in the A - share market. Short - term bonds perform slightly better due to loose liquidity. It is recommended to hold a small number of medium - term long positions in T2606 and temporarily wait and see in the short term [5]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price of lithium carbonate has dropped significantly. Affected by the Middle East situation, the market risk - aversion sentiment has increased, leading to a phased tightening of liquidity. It is recommended to focus on structural long - making opportunities after the correction and downstream enterprises can replenish inventory at low prices [7]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures have fallen. The short - term price of industrial silicon is affected by the macro sentiment and its own weak fundamentals, but there is strong bottom support in the medium and long term. It is recommended to take a long - position layout on dips. The photovoltaic industry needs to wait for capacity clearance and the improvement of the supply - demand pattern [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The escalation of the US - Iran situation may affect the import and export of the Middle East aluminum industry chain and increase the cost of electrolytic aluminum. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options for Shanghai aluminum. The spot price of alumina has rebounded, and it is recommended to sell deep out - of - the - money put options. For cast aluminum alloy, it is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [12][13]. - **Copper**: The copper price has weakened. The market speculation degree has decreased, and the copper price has fallen below the important support range. It is recommended that non - position holders wait and see or consider buying out - of - the - money call options, and industrial customers can consider replenishing inventory [13][16]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is weak in the short term due to liquidity issues and the overall pressure of the sector. It is expected to be strong in the medium term [17]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel have fallen. The supply - shortage logic has been broken, but the actual industrial impact remains to be seen. The demand is expected to be boosted in the peak season, and the inventory of stainless steel has accumulated recently [18]. - **Tin**: The tin price has dropped sharply and is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply is tight, and the demand has started to resume work [18][19]. - **Lead**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate. The current supply - demand pattern is weak, and there is a pressure of inventory accumulation and cost support [20]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The external market of US soybeans has risen, and the domestic market has oscillated. The supply pressure is expected to return in the second quarter. It is recommended to widen the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [21]. - **Oils**: The oil market is strong due to the geopolitical conflict. The international palm oil supply and demand situation is complex, and the domestic oil supply is sufficient. It is expected that the oil price will remain strong in the short term [21][22][23]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: The Middle East conflict has led to concerns about the tightening of the Asian fuel oil supply, supporting the Singapore fuel oil market [25]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price is driven by the cost of crude oil. The current terminal demand is low, and the supply is expected to increase. The price will follow the change of crude oil in the future [26]. Precious Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The price of precious metals has fallen sharply due to the delay of interest rate cut expectations and liquidity pressure. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish stance on precious metals and be cautious about short - term adjustment risks. It is advisable to buy on dips and replenish positions step by step [28][29]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price is close to the previous low, and the offset paper price is close to the previous high. The pulp inventory pressure is large, and the offset paper supply - demand situation has improved. It is recommended to conduct range trading for pulp in the short term and try a long - position strategy at low prices in the medium term. For offset paper, it is recommended to try a short - position strategy at high prices [30][31][32]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have risen. The cost support has been enhanced due to the Middle East conflict, and attention should be paid to the refinery start - up changes and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz [32][33]. - **LPG**: The LPG market is affected by the US - Iran situation. The market is concerned about the supply from the Middle East, and it is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent development of the situation [33][35]. - **Methanol**: The geopolitical conflict has a significant impact on methanol. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the conflict will affect the main methanol production areas, gas fields, and ports in Iran [35][36]. - **Plastic PP**: The prices of plastic and polypropylene have risen. The rise is driven by cost increase and the improvement of the fundamental supply - demand expectation. It is necessary to be cautious about the market correction risk if the conflict eases [36][38][39]. - **Rubber**: The natural rubber price is under pressure, and the synthetic rubber price is affected by the geopolitical conflict. The macro sentiment dominates, and the natural rubber price is expected to oscillate. The butadiene rubber cost is supported, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [39][44][45]. - **Urea**: The US - Iran war has an impact on the urea market, causing a "collapse of global supply" and an "explosion of domestic sentiment". It is expected to drive a price increase in the domestic market [47][48]. - **Glass Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash may be affected by the expected overhaul, and the glass demand has not recovered yet. The supply return expectation and high inventory in the middle stream limit the price increase of glass [48][49]. - **Propylene**: The propylene price is affected by the cost and supply - demand. The cost is the dominant factor in the short term. The propane price has risen, and there is an expectation of production reduction in some olefin enterprises [49][50]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil are weak. The market has expectations for infrastructure and real estate policies, but the fundamental pressure of the finished steel still exists. The short - term policy expectations support the market, but the weak fundamentals limit the price increase space [51]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market shows a supply - demand game pattern. The supply pressure persists, and the demand is affected by seasonal restrictions and pessimistic expectations. The price has limited downward space but lacks upward drive [53]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke have risen. The risk assets may fluctuate more violently. The coking enterprises' operating rate is expected to rise slightly, and the coke may face a price cut risk in the future [53][54]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese have risen. The short - term sentiment is strong, but the black metal fundamentals are weak. The silicon manganese is affected by high inventory, and the silicon iron has a better fundamental situation [54][55]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The hog futures price has continued to decline. The piglet market is weak, and it is recommended to sell call options on the main hog futures contract [57][58]. - **Cotton**: The cotton futures price has fallen slightly. The domestic cotton supply - demand situation is expected to be tight this year. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips and pay attention to the international situation and the US foreign trade policy [58][59][60]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar futures price has basically stood above the 5300 mark. The fundamental situation is favorable, but the international raw sugar price is under pressure. The upward space is expected to be limited [61][62]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures price has declined. The egg market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and it is recommended to sell call options on the main egg futures contract [62]. - **Apples**: The apple futures price has risen. The market is affected by the fundamentals and delivery issues. The price is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and attention should be paid to the pressure level around 10,000 [69][70]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube futures price has risen slightly. The domestic jujube supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [71][72]. - **Logs**: The log futures price is approaching the previous high. The inventory has increased significantly, and the demand has not recovered significantly. It is recommended to shift from a long - position strategy to a range - trading strategy [73].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view on TL2606 is a shock, the medium - term view is a shock, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of shock consolidation. The short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is a shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. Due to the geopolitical crisis and the market's shift in focus, the short - term upward drive of bond futures is insufficient, but there is still a strong support due to future interest rate cut expectations. Overall, bond futures will be in shock consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2606 variety, the short - term is a shock, the medium - term is a shock, the intraday is weak, with a view of shock consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is a shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that bond futures were in narrow - range shock consolidation yesterday. The market logic has shifted from the risk - aversion sentiment caused by the geopolitical crisis to concerns about global crude oil supply. The short - term upward drive of bond futures is insufficient because the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low. However, due to the problem of insufficient domestic effective demand, the future monetary and credit environment is expected to be loose, and there are still expectations of an interest rate cut, providing strong support for bond futures [5].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: March 4, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a volatile adjustment. For CF2605, the opening price was 15,260 yuan/ton, the closing price was 15,252 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.03%. The trading volume was 396,239 lots, and the open interest was 778,613 lots, a decrease of 15,900 lots. For CF2609, the opening price was 15,305 yuan/ton, the closing price was 15,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.03%. The trading volume was 108,742 lots, and the open interest was 203,837 lots, an increase of 143 lots. For CF2701, the opening price was 15,650 yuan/ton, the closing price was 15,640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.10%. The trading volume was 3,324 lots, and the open interest was 10,848 lots, an increase of 788 lots [7]. - The latest cotton price index for grade 328 was 16,591 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the 2025/26 season, the machine - picked cotton of grade 31 with double 29 and impurity within 3 in southern Xinjiang's Kashgar had many quotes at CF05 + 1,100 or above, and a small amount was lower than this price. In northern Xinjiang, the higher quotes were above 1,400, and the mainstream lower quotes were between 1,200 - 1,400, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [7]. Industry Conditions - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market was weak, with unclear downstream orders. The market mainly fulfilled previous orders, inventory decreased, and manufacturers were cautious and mainly in a wait - and - see mode. The overall trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market recovered moderately, and there was no significant improvement. The price of all - cotton grey fabric increased by 0.2 - 0.3 yuan/meter compared with before the festival, but the transaction was difficult to follow up [8]. - Macroeconomically, the escalation of the Middle East situation led to a sharp rise in oil prices, causing inflation concerns and weakening the expectation of interest rate cuts. The cotton market had a strong risk - aversion sentiment and showed a volatile adjustment. Internationally, as of the week ending February 28, the cotton planting rate in Brazil for the 2025/26 season had reached 100%. Domestically, as of March 2, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of cotton nationwide was 7.4843 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%, among which the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 7.3835 million tons. As of mid - February, the domestic commercial cotton inventory was 5.5037 million tons, which had entered a downward trend with good consumption support, a year - on - year decrease of 177,400 tons. The downstream market had not fully started, the overall new orders in the pure cotton yarn market were insufficient, and the actual transaction amount was significantly lower than the quoted price [8]. Operational Suggestions - The short - term trend of the cotton market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, pending the performance of post - festival peak - season demand, the cotton planting intention report, and the target price policy guidance [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to Mysteel research, as of February 26, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports was 538,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.75%. Among them, the inventory at ports and surrounding warehouses in Shandong (Qingdao, Jinan) was 471,000 tons, the inventory at Zhangjiagang Port and surrounding warehouses in Jiangsu was about 37,300 tons, and the inventory at other ports was about 29,800 tons [9]. - As of February 27, 2026, the total commercial cotton inventory was 5.2676 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 87,800 tons, a decrease of 1.64%. Among them, the commercial cotton inventory in Xinjiang was 4.1005 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 112,600 tons, a decrease of 2.67% [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, CF1 - 5 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][18][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets, leading to increased market volatility and inflation expectations [7][12][13] - Different industries and commodities show various trends and investment opportunities under the influence of geopolitical factors, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes Summary by Directory Macro Information - The 2026 National Two Sessions are about to start. The 4th Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held from March 4th to 11th [7] - US President Trump made tough statements on multiple issues during his meeting with German Chancellor Merz, and announced insurance for maritime crude oil transportation and potential naval escort [7] - Tensions in the Middle East have led to a sharp decline in the traffic volume of the Strait of Hormuz, and the logistics of dry bulk and containers in the region has come to a standstill [7] - The conflict between the US and Iran has continued to spread, with the destruction of Iran's Natanz nuclear facility and threats from both sides. The election of Iran's new supreme leader is in the final stage [7] - Trump's actions have led to a new wave of stock selling and rising energy prices, increasing inflation concerns. The probability of the Fed's second interest - rate cut this year has dropped to 50% [7] - In February, the central bank's MLF net investment was 300 billion yuan, SLF net investment was 0 yuan, and other structural monetary policy tools had a net investment of - 7.6 billion yuan. In open - market operations, the net investment of national debt trading was 50 billion yuan, 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net investment of - 120.5 billion yuan, and other - term reverse repurchase had a net investment of 600 billion yuan [8] - Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a guidance on promoting the comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic modules [8] - The National Energy Administration emphasized the importance of power supply guarantee, energy transformation, and the construction of a unified national power market [8] - Alibaba's desktop Agent QoderWork is fully open, providing Mac and Windows versions [8] - Trump submitted a notice under the War Powers Act to Congress regarding the military operation against Iran on February 28th. Congress will vote on a bill to limit the president's war - making power this week [9] - India has 25 - day inventories of crude oil and refined fuels and is looking for alternative sources of imports [9] - Qatar's LNG export facilities were attacked and shut down, and the company suspended the production of multiple products. Goldman Sachs raised its natural gas price forecast [10] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The short - term strategy is mainly for risk defense. After the market sentiment stabilizes, IM/IC may continue to outperform the weighted stocks. Geopolitical risks have reduced risk appetite and pushed up inflation expectations, suppressing the performance of the equity market [12] Bond Futures - Geopolitical risks have reduced risk appetite and pushed up inflation expectations, which may suppress the performance of the equity market. Bond yields may decline [13] Black Commodities Steel and Iron Ore - The current order - receiving situation of steel is generally okay, but some steel mills face pressure. The downstream galvanized and cold - rolled processing fees are still inverted, and the inventory of steel, especially coils, is high, which suppresses steel prices [14] - The real - estate new - house sales data is still weak year - on - year, and the new construction starts have a large decline. Infrastructure projects have limited starts, but the funds in place have improved year - on - year. The demand for coils from downstream industries is okay [14] - The supply side has low - level profits for steel mills, and the iron - water output has increased slightly. The raw material prices of iron ore and coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate. The overall steel market is expected to fluctuate. For iron ore, short - term high - position short orders can take profits, and long - term partial short orders can be held lightly [15] Coking Coal and Coke - The short - term price of coking coal and coke may fluctuate. After the Spring Festival, the supply has recovered significantly, while the demand from steel mills has a rigid support but is restricted by the uncertain recovery of terminal steel demand. International energy price increases may support the price [18] Ferroalloys - The current double - silicon market may be driven by off - industry forces. The silicon - iron market is in a tight - balance pattern before large - scale resumption of production in Qinghai, and the demand from magnesium for silicon - iron is strong. Manganese - silicon has an oversupply situation, and the cost is relatively strong. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions in silicon - iron when the price surges and to wait and see for manganese - silicon [19] Soda Ash and Glass - The market has strong expectations for the future maintenance of soda - ash plants and potential cold - repair plans for glass production lines. The supply of soda ash remains high, and some enterprises have maintenance plans. The supply of glass has both cold - repair and ignition plans. It is recommended to wait and see for now [20] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Copper - Under the influence of geopolitical conflicts, the short - term interest - rate cut expectation has cooled, and the potential balance - sheet reduction may put pressure on copper prices. The short - term copper price will fluctuate widely. The long - term supply of global copper mines is tight, which supports the copper price [22] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market has a situation of strong expectations but weak reality. In the short term, supply increases and demand may weaken due to the Israel - Iran war. In the medium term, the supply may be restricted, and the demand is expected to increase, so the price is expected to fluctuate widely [24] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of low - valuation repair. Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate widely. The supply - demand contradiction of industrial silicon is not significant, and the polysilicon market is under pressure due to shipping blockages [26] Agricultural Products Cotton - The domestic cotton market should focus on the actual demand for resumption of production and the impact of external conflicts. The short - term trend will turn into a shock. The cotton market is affected by the surrounding market and the macro - environment. The domestic cotton inventory is in the de - stocking stage, and the cotton price is expected to rise in the long term [30] Sugar - The sugar market has a situation of phased supply surplus, and the sugar price is under pressure. The global sugar surplus has been adjusted, and the production in some countries has been reduced. The Brazilian sugar production may be affected by the rise in oil prices. The domestic sugar has seasonal production pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate and rebound [31] Eggs - The spot price of eggs in March is expected to rise, but the space is limited. The second - quarter futures contracts are supported by the expected rise in the spot price, but the premium is large, so the upper pressure is high. The far - month contracts are under pressure due to good replenishment data [34] Apples - High - quality apple products are expected to continue a strong trend, and the futures price may be strong. The prices of high - quality apples in some western regions are rising, while the prices in Shandong are stable [36] Corn - It is recommended to choose the 5 - 7 reverse spread. The domestic corn spot price is strong, and the futures price fluctuates. The corn faces phased pressure, but the low inventory supports the price [37] Red Dates - The red - date market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The price in the Cangzhou market is stable, and the consumption during the Spring Festival is generally flat. The market will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, and it is necessary to pay attention to the sales rhythm and the mentality of purchasers [37] Pigs - In March, the pig market is expected to be in a stage of strong supply and weak demand, and the spot price is likely to be weak. It is not recommended to short the near - month futures contracts in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the entry of secondary fattening and frozen - product storage [39] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The crude - oil price has risen and then fallen, and the extreme panic has eased. The geopolitical situation is still the main trading factor. The US - Iran conflict has a significant impact on global crude - oil supply. If the Strait of Hormuz is completely blocked, the global crude - oil price will soar. The OPEC+ may increase production to make up for the potential supply shortage [42] Fuel Oil - The short - term trading of fuel oil is mainly affected by the geopolitical - led oil price. The supply risk has not been eliminated, and the Strait of Hormuz is still the biggest risk factor for the oil price [44] Plastics - The unstable situation in the Middle East may support the polyolefin price. The polyolefin supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak, but the war in Iran has led to an increase in the oil price and a reduction in plastic production, making the market atmosphere strong [45] Rubber - The conflict may affect tire exports, and it is recommended to be cautious in going long in the short term. It is possible to continue to pay attention to narrowing the RU - NR spread and shorting the RU - BR spread. The overseas raw - material price is strong, and the domestic production area has a good opening - cut expectation [46] Synthetic Rubber - Based on the good fundamentals of butadiene in the first half of the year, it is recommended to go long on synthetic rubber at low prices, but be cautious about the rapid decline in energy prices and high inventory. The price of synthetic rubber is rising due to cost - push factors [48] Methanol - The actual supply - demand situation of methanol has improved slightly, but the Middle - East situation is still uncertain. The local war in Iran may lead to a reduction in methanol supply. It is recommended to have a bullish - shock thinking, but a shutdown of downstream MTO plants may cause a price callback [49] Caustic Soda - The chlor - alkali industry is gradually resuming production. The caustic - soda price is relatively weak due to the impact of warehouse receipts. It is recommended to have a wide - range shock thinking for caustic - soda futures [50] Asphalt - Asphalt follows the oil - price fluctuation, and the amplitude is expected to be smaller than that of crude oil. It is necessary to pay attention to the post - winter - storage replenishment demand in March [51] PVC - The previous rise of PVC was due to the expectation of future capacity - reduction policies and the improvement of the fundamental situation caused by recent export rush. The short - term trend may be bullish - shock. The rise in the oil price will increase the cost of ethylene - based PVC. It is recommended to be cautious and use an interval - shock thinking [52] Polyester Industry Chain - The short - term trend of the polyester industry chain is dominated by the oil price and market sentiment, and it will continue to be strong. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of device maintenance and the substantial recovery of polyester demand in the medium and long term [53] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Iran is an important LPG supplier to China. The future LPG supply is abundant, and the price is difficult to stay high. The demand is restricted. The short - term geopolitical situation has increased volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see [54] Pulp - The pulp market has a conflict between weak reality and macro factors, resulting in unstable multi - empty games. The port inventory has reached a new high, and the downstream has not started replenishing inventory. The price has support from the supply - side disturbance and foreign - market price increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory and price - increase implementation [56] Logs - The demand in the Rizhao area is gradually recovering, and the forward - spot price is difficult to fall under cost support. The inventory data after the Spring Festival is good. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the US - Iran conflict and the new delivery rules [57] Urea - The urea - futures market is highly emotional, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies. The spot - market price is basically stable, and the futures price is supported by the rise in the overseas oil price but is also restricted by the policy guidance price [58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - The overall market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, central bank policies, and supply - demand relationships. Geopolitical tensions, especially the situation in the Middle East, have a significant impact on the prices of commodities like precious metals, energy, and some chemicals. Central bank policies, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, also influence market expectations. Supply - demand imbalances in different industries drive price trends, with some industries facing supply shortages or excess, and demand either growing or remaining weak [1][2][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The international gold price denominated in London Gold fell 4.39% to $5087 per ounce, and the international silver price denominated in London Silver dropped 8.18% to $81.98 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Tensions in the Middle East, changes in Fed interest - rate cut expectations, and inventory changes in different regions and ETFs. For example, domestic gold inflow was 2.1 tons, and some inventories decreased, while India's silver import demand continued to improve [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold and reduce long positions in silver and wait and see [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated weakly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Delayed interest - rate cut expectations due to rising oil prices, supply - side copper ore shortage but high refined copper production, and weak demand in the off - season [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a range - bound trading strategy in the short term [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 2.29% to 23905 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: High - load production on the supply side and a slight increase in the weekly aluminum product start - up rate on the demand side [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate strongly due to geopolitical conflicts and improving downstream demand [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 1.23% to 2807 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in operating capacity on the supply side and high - load production of electrolytic aluminum plants on the demand side [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate strongly in the short term, but new production capacity may suppress the price in the future [2][3]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: On March 3, the zinc and lead main contracts closed at 24370 yuan/ton and 16840 yuan/ton respectively, with price drops [3]. - **Fundamentals**: For zinc, large accumulation of social inventory, slow resumption of downstream enterprises, but low overseas LME inventory provides some support; for lead, increasing social inventory, some refineries delaying resumption due to high costs, and weak spot trading [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hedge zinc at high prices and trade lead within a range [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.20% from the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in the number of open furnaces on the supply side, slight inventory accumulation, and recovery in demand from downstream industries such as polysilicon and organic silicon [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate between 8200 - 8600 yuan. Consider short - selling lightly at high prices if the large - scale production cut is short - lived [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 150,860 yuan/ton, with a limit - down [3]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in the price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate, an increase in production, and changes in demand and inventory. For example, SMM expects a 8.7% increase in March production compared to January [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may oscillate with high volatility around 140,000 - 150,000 yuan in the short term. Wait and see the new - energy vehicle consumption in March to judge the future price trend [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 43700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.74% from the previous trading day [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Stable weekly production, an increase in industry inventory, and a recovery in downstream production scheduling [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate weakly between 43000 - 53000 yuan in the short term [4]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices dropped significantly [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Delayed interest - rate cut expectations and a tight supply of tin ore, with active trading at lower prices [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a buying opportunity after the implied volatility decreases [4]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3067 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Seasonal inventory accumulation, a significant difference in supply - demand between building materials and hot - rolled coils, and relatively low rebar futures valuation [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in rebar and wait and see. The reference range for RB05 is 3040 - 3100 yuan [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 746.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil, a decrease in arrivals, and low port inventory [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 730 - 760 yuan [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1117 yuan/ton, up 32.5 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in molten iron production, the implementation of the first round of coke price increase, and high - level port clearance [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in coking coal and wait and see. The reference range for JM05 is 1090 - 1150 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: A丰产 expectation in South America, strong US soybean crushing and export expectations [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are strong. Pay attention to US soybean exports and South American production realization. The domestic market may oscillate strongly in the short term but lacks upward momentum in the medium term [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices fell, while spot prices continued to rise [6]. - **Fundamentals**: More than 60% of grain sales completed, low port and downstream inventory, and losses in downstream industries [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the futures price to oscillate strongly due to limited supply and downstream restocking [6]. Edible Oils - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose, driven by the increase in crude oil prices [6]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in February production and exports in Malaysia, and an expected decrease in end - February inventory [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The edible oil market is in a weak cycle but may rebound in the short term due to rising crude oil prices. Pay attention to crude oil prices and production in the producing areas [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: ICE US cotton futures prices continued to fall, while Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated narrowly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Smooth cotton sowing in Brazil, stable domestic cotton prices, and an increase in cotton yarn prices [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at low prices. The reference price range is 15000 - 15600 yuan/ton [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices were weak, and spot prices slightly decreased [6]. - **Fundamentals**: It is the traditional off - season for egg demand, and supply is sufficient [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the futures price to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices were weak, and spot prices continued to fall [6]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in the number of pigs for slaughter after the Spring Festival and a seasonal off - season for demand [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the futures price to oscillate weakly [6]. Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract continued to rise significantly. The basis strengthened, and market trading was good [7]. - **Fundamentals**: No new device production in the first half of the year, a slowdown in domestic supply pressure, and an improvement in downstream demand [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term, with the upside limited by the import window. Short at high prices in the medium term [7]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract closed at 4939 yuan/ton, up 2.4% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Affected by rising oil prices, high social inventory, and weak demand [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see due to balanced supply and weak demand and low valuation [7]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PXCFR China price was $1019/ton, and PTA East China spot price was 5525 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: High - level supply of PX, restart of some PTA devices, and PTA inventory accumulation [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Keep waiting and see in the PTA inventory - accumulation pattern [7]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The fg05 contract closed at 1053 yuan/ton, up 0.6% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in supply, weak demand, and high inventory [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy glass and sell soda ash [7]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main PP contract continued to rise significantly. The basis strengthened, and market trading was good [8]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in new device production in the short term, a reduction in supply pressure, and an improvement in downstream demand [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term, with the upside limited by the import window. Short at high prices in the medium term [8]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The East China spot price of MEG was 3894 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Potential supply shortages due to geopolitical conflicts, and expected inventory reduction in March [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: SC crude oil had three consecutive daily limit - up, and the delivery cost had a high premium compared to Brent [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, especially the situation in Iran, may affect the supply of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Participate in trading through options to control risks [8]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract continued to rise significantly. The market trading atmosphere was good [9]. - **Fundamentals**: An improvement in the pure - benzene supply - demand pattern, inventory reduction of styrene, and an improvement in downstream start - up rate but increased losses [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term, following the cost (crude oil) fluctuations. Go long on styrene at low prices in the second quarter [9]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 contract closed at 1219 yuan/ton, up 2.2% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Rising prices due to increased overseas costs, large supply, and inventory accumulation [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see due to increased supply and weak demand and low valuation [9].

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a rare reaction where traditional safe-haven assets collectively faltered, with U.S. Treasury yields rising, gold plummeting by approximately 4%, and both the yen and Swiss franc declining, while oil surged over 8% as the only "safe haven" [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The combination of rising oil prices, increasing inflation expectations, and reduced rate cut expectations led to a rise in bond yields and a decline in the bond market [6][8]. - This scenario is rare; since 1983, there have only been 16 instances where Brent crude oil rose over 7% while gold fell and bond yields increased [4]. Group 2: Asset Performance - Gold, typically a beneficiary of inflation concerns, fell by about 4% despite a strong afternoon rebound in the stock market [9]. - Analysts noted that gold faced a "double whammy" due to a stronger dollar and prior significant price increases, making it a target for liquidation during market stress [11][12]. Group 3: Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar index rose by about 1%, but the driving logic behind this increase differed from typical safe-haven behavior, as the Swiss franc and yen both declined against the dollar [13]. - The Norwegian krone strengthened against the dollar, contrasting with the performance of currencies from oil-importing countries [14]. Group 4: Geopolitical Impact - The market's volatility was predicated on the assumption that the conflict would continue, with Iran capable of significantly disrupting oil transport or production [16]. - A statement from former President Trump regarding U.S. naval protection for oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz complicated market sentiment, leading to a reversal in oil prices and a rebound in the stock market [18][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Carbonate Lithium, Fuel Oil, LPG, PTA, 2-Butene [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum, Palladium, Industrial Silicon, Threaded Steel, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Vegetable Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, White Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Coniferous Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Bitumen, BR Rubber, Styrene, Urea, Methanol, PVC, Caustic Soda, Container Shipping on the European Line [1] - **Wait-and-See**: Polysilicon, Threaded Steel, Hot Rolled Coil [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle East conflict. If the conflict ends quickly, the market sentiment will recover rapidly after the shock adjustment of the stock index, and an upward trend will be opened. The approaching of China's "Two Sessions" provides support for the stock index. If the Middle East situation does not deteriorate further, the short - term adjustment of the stock index will bring a good long - position layout opportunity [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest - rate risks in the short term, and attention should be paid to the interest - rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1]. - Overseas macro factors are favorable for copper prices, but the continuous accumulation of global copper inventories suppresses prices. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is disturbed, and the domestic alumina production capacity is decreasing, but the inventory is increasing. The supply of zinc ore from Iran is a concern, and the supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is tight. The prices of these metals are expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - Geopolitical conflicts support the prices of precious metals, but rising oil prices increase inflation risks and weaken the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Once the geopolitical situation eases, precious metal prices may decline. Platinum and palladium are expected to enter a range - bound oscillation after rising [1]. - For industrial silicon, the production in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December is decreasing. The demand for carbonate lithium is strong, but the spot market has not fully recovered [1]. - The black - metal market is in a slack season before the "Two Sessions", and the market is looking forward to the peak season after the "Two Sessions". In the long term, the market is pessimistic about coking coal 05 [1]. - The rise in crude oil prices is expected to drive up vegetable oil prices in the short term, but the supply of raw materials may increase in the medium term [1]. - The cotton market is currently supported but lacks driving forces. The global white - sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply is increasing. The corn market is supported by replenishment demand but needs to be cautious about high - price feedback. The soybean - meal market is expected to oscillate within a range [1]. - The prices of fuel oil and LPG are affected by the Middle East situation. The prices of various energy - chemical products are affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors [1]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term oscillation adjustment space is limited. If the Middle East situation does not worsen, the short - term adjustment brings a long - position layout opportunity [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but there are short - term interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Overseas macro factors are favorable, but inventory accumulation suppresses prices, and short - term oscillation is expected [1]. - **Aluminum**: Supply is disturbed, and the price oscillates [1]. - **Alumina**: Domestic production capacity is decreasing, but inventory is increasing, and short - term oscillation is expected [1]. - **Zinc**: The supply of Iranian zinc ore is a concern, which may boost the price in the short term. Attention should be paid to downstream resumption of work after the festival [1]. - **Nickel**: Supply in Indonesia is tight, and the price may oscillate at a high level in the short term. In the long term, high global inventory may have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to go long at low prices [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Raw material prices have risen after the festival, and the supply side in Indonesia is frequently disturbed. The futures price oscillates strongly. Attention should be paid to post - festival demand recovery, and it is recommended to go long in the short term [1]. - **Tin**: The Middle East situation is favorable, and the price is expected to continue to strengthen. Attention should be paid to risk management in the short - term high - volatility situation [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical conflicts support prices, but rising oil prices increase inflation risks. Once the situation eases, prices may decline. Short - term oscillation is expected [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Geopolitical factors are favorable, but the strong US dollar and mixed fundamentals lead to a range - bound oscillation after the price increase [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production in the northwest is increasing, while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December is decreasing [1]. - **Polysilicon**: It is recommended to wait and see due to liquidity risks [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Demand is strong, but the spot market has not fully recovered. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Threaded Steel and Hot Rolled Coil**: The spot market has not fully recovered. It is recommended to wait and see, and look for profit - taking opportunities for the basis positions [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is obvious upward pressure, and it is not recommended to chase the rise [1]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Short - term supply and demand are weak, but policy support and cost factors are favorable [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Short - term supply and demand are weak, and the supply is expected to decrease. Soda ash follows glass, and the medium - term supply is more abundant, putting pressure on prices [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is in a slack season before the "Two Sessions", and the market is looking forward to the peak season after the "Two Sessions". In the long term, the market is pessimistic about coking coal 05. It is recommended to establish long - short arbitrage positions [1]. Agricultural Products - **Vegetable Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The rise in crude oil prices is expected to drive up prices in the short term, but the supply of raw materials may increase in the medium term. It is recommended to be bullish in the short term and wait and see in the medium term [1]. - **Cotton**: The market is supported but lacks driving forces. Attention should be paid to relevant policies, planting intentions, and seasonal demand [1]. - **White Sugar**: The global market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply is increasing. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces, and attention should be paid to the capital situation [1]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure is limited, and the demand for replenishment supports the price, but attention should be paid to the negative feedback of high prices [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The market has rebounded, but the rebound is limited under the pressure of large global supply. It is expected to oscillate within a range [1]. - **Coniferous Pulp**: It is expected to oscillate between 5200 - 5400 in the short term, and attention should be paid to post - festival port inventory [1]. - **Logs**: The spot price has risen, and the arrival volume in February has decreased. The price has an upward driving force [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price is stable, and the production capacity needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the market sentiment is bullish [1]. - **Bitumen**: The cost is supported, the market sentiment is positive, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering [1]. - **BR Rubber**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the short - term price is expected to oscillate widely, and there is an upward expectation in the long term [1]. - **PTA**: The supply is expected to tighten in the future, and the price is expected to rise [1]. - **2 - Butene**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price is expected to rise [1]. - **Styrene**: The production economy is stable, and the demand is expected to recover gradually [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased, and the upward space is limited, but there is support at the bottom [1]. - **Methanol**: The import is expected to decrease, but the downstream feedback is obvious, and the situation is mixed [1]. - **PVC**: The future is expected to be optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals are weak, but the price has a small increase [1]. - **LPG**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price is strong, but the demand is short - term bearish, and the internal and external markets show different trends [1]. Others - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The price increase is generally stable, and shipping companies are cautious about resuming flights. They have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off - season in March [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between the US and Iran continues to ferment, leading to a significant increase in geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which has a wide - ranging impact on the global financial and commodity markets. The market's risk - aversion sentiment is high, and the expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cuts are adjusted. Different commodities show different trends under the influence of geopolitical factors and their own fundamentals [2][4][6]. According to the Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran is intensifying, with continuous air strikes. The Strait of Hormuz is closed, and Iran threatens to attack passing ships. The US manufacturing industry in February continued to expand, but inflationary pressures are rising, and the market's expectations for interest - rate cuts have converged. The US stock market opened lower and closed higher, the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield rose to 4.04%, the US dollar index rose to 98.5, oil prices rose by more than 6%, gold prices reached above $5400 and then fell, and copper prices fell by 2% [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market opened lower and closed higher on Monday. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4182 points, approaching the previous high. Funds flowed into the dividend - paying sectors, and the technology sector performed weakly. The trading volume in the two markets reached 3.05 trillion yuan, a new high since February, and more than 4200 stocks closed down. The short - term upward momentum of the index still exists, and the focus will shift to the economic performance at the beginning of the year and the economic targets and policies of the Two Sessions in early March [3]. Precious Metals - The prices of gold and silver rose and then fell. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East increased, driving gold prices to break through the $5400 mark, but then some funds took profits, and gold prices corrected. COMEX gold futures closed up 1.68% at $5335.90 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures closed down 3.95% at $89.61 per ounce. It is expected that the short - term gold - silver ratio will continue to correct upwards [4][5]. Copper - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts in June has declined, and copper prices have adjusted. The main contract of Shanghai copper weakened, and LME copper adjusted to around $13000. The spot market trading was light, and the inventory increased. Geopolitical factors and inflation concerns led to a reduction in the expectation of interest - rate cuts. The supply of mines was tight, and the inventory accumulation rate in China slowed down. It is expected that copper prices will remain volatile in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices continued to be strong with increased volatility. The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 24465 yuan/ton, up 3.21%. The geopolitical conflict led to an increase in energy costs and inflation expectations, and concerns about the normal production of Iranian aluminum plants supported aluminum prices. However, the inventory in China continued to accumulate, and the downstream consumption recovered slowly [8][9]. Alumina - Alumina prices fluctuated widely. The main contract of alumina futures closed at 2773 yuan/ton, up 0.58%. The long - term closure of the Strait of Hormuz may lead to a shortage of alumina supply in the Middle East and disrupt the overseas supply - demand balance. The domestic alumina price rose due to regional supply imbalance, and the market was in a state of long - short game [10]. Cast Aluminum - Cast aluminum prices were strong. The main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 23180 yuan/ton, up 2.66%. Geopolitical factors drove up aluminum prices, and the cost of scrap aluminum increased. The supply capacity recovered after the festival, and the market supply - demand was temporarily balanced, with prices mainly driven by cost and emergencies [11]. Zinc - The price of zinc was supported by geopolitical premiums and was expected to fluctuate at a high level. The main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated strongly during the day and then gave back the gains at night. The European natural gas price soared, increasing the cost of zinc smelters in Europe. The domestic inventory increased, and the downstream resumed work slowly. The short - term trend of zinc prices was driven by the geopolitical situation [12][13]. Lead - The lead price center moved up. The main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated with an upward center during the day and traded sideways at night. The supply and demand of lead both increased, and the social inventory showed an inflection point. The lead price was expected to be slightly strong in the short term, but the upside space was limited [14]. Tin - Tin prices were consolidating at a high level. The main contract of Shanghai tin rebounded after reaching the bottom during the day and weakened at night. The resumption of tin mining in Myanmar was expected to accelerate, which alleviated the supply concerns. However, tin has strong strategic attributes, and the supply - demand fundamentals are relatively stable, limiting the adjustment space of tin prices [15][16]. Steel and Iron - **Screw and Coil**: Steel futures fluctuated. The impact of the US - Iran conflict on the black market was limited. During the Two Sessions, the supply was low, and the post - festival construction industry had tight funds. The inventory continued to accumulate, and it was expected that the steel price would fluctuate and stabilize [17][18]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore futures fluctuated. The overseas shipment increased slightly, and the arrival decreased. The inventory pressure was still large, and the demand recovery was limited. It was expected that the iron ore price would fluctuate and stabilize [19]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. The supply of coal increased, and the downstream demand was limited. The coking enterprises' inventory accumulated, and it was expected that the coking coal and coke prices would fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the improvement of steel mill profits and policy support [20]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The funds reduced their positions, and the soybean meal futures fluctuated and fell. Market institutions slightly lowered the forecast of Brazil's soybean production, and the domestic soybean inventory increased while the soybean meal inventory decreased. It was expected that the soybean meal futures would fluctuate in the short term [21][22]. - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil prices fluctuated and rose. The geopolitical conflict led to a sharp rise in oil prices, which boosted the oil market. The high - frequency data showed that the supply and demand of Malaysian palm oil decreased in February, and the domestic palm oil inventory increased. It was expected that the palm oil price would fluctuate [23][24].