来源：华尔街情报圈 ——这不是平静，这是舞台被清空。 昨晚，全球市场出现一场无声的下跌： - 美元跌，黄金和白银跌，美国股市全线下跌，比特币又跌破70000美元。美元的下跌是22:00开始的，而黄金的下跌是23:00开始的。 之所以说是"无声的下跌"，因为波动率骤然降低，尤其是白银市场，其波幅是1月29日大跌以来最低的一天。不是恐慌性的暴跌，而是"集体闭嘴、默默撤 退"。 白银很诚实的资产。既不是纯避险资产，也不是纯工业资产，而是风险情绪放大器。白银不涨、不崩，波动率缩到异常低，意味着全球市场都在"憋气"。 真正该担心的下跌，就是这种没人说话、没人接盘、慢慢往下的。 波动率下降——这五个字尤为重要，它等同于"没有情绪宣泄"。说明卖的人是"冷静的"，不是被吓坏的。 波动率压缩是"下一步"的前奏，为接下来两种情况之一做准备： · 要么，一次情绪性加速（向上或向下）； 特别声明：以上内容仅代表作者本人的观点或立场，不代表新浪财经头条的观点或立场。如因作品内容、版权或其他问题需要与新浪财经头条联系的，请 于上述内容发布后的30天内进行。 之后是联储官员发表"不支持降息"的讲话。克利夫兰联储主席表示，可能"相当长一段时 ...

Group 1 - The bond market has recently shown signs of structural recovery, with the 10-year government bond yield falling below the critical level of 1.8%, attracting market attention [1] - Multiple macro-financial variables have positively changed, supporting the recovery of the bond market, including a significant drop in short-term liquidity rates and stable insurance fund allocations [2] - The bond market's overall performance has remained stable despite fluctuations in other asset classes, indicating a return to its safe-haven asset characteristics [3] Group 2 - There is a growing divergence in opinions regarding the future downward potential of bond yields, with some institutions believing that current yield levels have already priced in rate cut expectations [4] - The support for bond yields has weakened as they approach the 1.8% mark, with the market's focus shifting to whether policy rates will be adjusted downwards [5] - Despite the upcoming holiday and potential market uncertainties, there remains a demand for holding bonds, although caution is advised due to the volatility and supply pressures expected post-holiday [6]

钛媒体App 2月10日消息，美国12月零售销售表现低于预期，美债期货全线攀升至盘中高点。各期限美 债收益率普遍下跌3-5个基点，2s10s和5s30s日内均趋平约2个基点，脱离盘中低点，因数据公布后，曲 线的短端与中段领涨。与美联储会期对应的OIS定价显示，年底前降息预期略有增强，预计到12月总计 降息58个基点，周一收盘时为56个基点。（广角观察） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a shift in market expectations towards potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by weak labor market data and changes in monetary policy outlook [1][3] - The labor market data showed a significant drop in job openings, with December's JOLTS vacancies falling to 6.54 million from 6.93 million in November, marking the lowest level since 2020 [1] - The yield curve has steepened following the nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair, with expectations of a dovish monetary policy stance influencing short-term rates while long-term rates are affected by liquidity concerns [3] Group 2 - Gold prices increased by 1.6% over the week, recovering from previous declines, but the market is expected to take time to rebuild confidence and structure [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve chair's proposal to shorten the average maturity of the Fed's balance sheet may delay the issuance of long-term bonds, providing limited support for gold prices [2] - Chinese demand for precious metals is a key driver, but may weaken temporarily due to the upcoming Lunar New Year, potentially reducing volatility in the global precious metals market [2] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury yields across various maturities declined, with the 30-year UST down 2 basis points to 4.85%, and the 10-year UST down 3 basis points to 4.2% [3] - The usage of overnight reverse repurchase agreements (ONRRP) fell to $3.11 billion, a decrease of $7.31 billion from the previous week [3] - The net short positions in 2-year and 10-year UST futures increased, indicating a bearish sentiment among non-commercial investors [3] Group 4 - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.5% to 97.6, moving in tandem with gold prices, which suggests an increasing correlation between the two [7] - The total holdings of the dollar index decreased, with non-commercial long positions down by 1,335 contracts to 17,000 contracts, while short positions decreased by 4,888 contracts to 17,000 contracts [10] - Offshore dollar liquidity costs have risen, as indicated by the decline in the 3-month Basis Swaps for both the yen and euro [13] Group 5 - The copper-to-gold ratio fell to 2.63, indicating a marginal decline in global demand momentum as copper prices dropped while gold prices rose [16] - The gold-silver ratio increased due to the rise in gold prices and the decline in silver prices, reflecting market dynamics [19] - Gold premiums increased after a price correction, indicating strong domestic buying support [28] Group 6 - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 331,000 ounces to 35.294 million ounces, while silver inventory fell by 1.523 million ounces to 39.0466 million ounces [34] - SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 7.44 tons to 1,079.7 tons, remaining near the lower median of the past decade [39] - COMEX gold total positions fell by 78,769 contracts to 489,000 contracts, with a notable increase in short positions, indicating a growing bearish sentiment [39]

Macro News - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by March is 17.7%, while the probability of maintaining rates is 82.3% [1] - By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 32.4%, with a 63.5% chance of rates remaining unchanged, and a 4% chance of a 50 basis point cut [1] - By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut reaches 50.4% [1] - The White House's Hassett predicts a decline in employment, stating that AI will boost productivity and reduce labor demand [1] Institutional Views - Recent market sentiment has improved, with a V-shaped rebound in U.S. stocks and a weakening dollar, leading to a recovery in gold and silver prices from previous pessimism [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen indicated that the recent drop in gold prices was primarily driven by speculative selling and market rumors about domestic commercial banks potentially reducing their exposure to U.S. Treasuries [1] - These factors have collectively strengthened market confidence in precious metals like gold [1] - The recent price fluctuations are attributed to emotional and risk releases following rapid price increases, while the macroeconomic environment supporting gold and silver's long-term trends remains favorable [1] - This week will see the release of important data, including U.S. retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and CPI, but with the upcoming Chinese New Year, a cautious approach of light positions or staying out of the market is advised [1]

技术结构上，黄金目前仍运行在上升通道框架内，价格围绕5000美元上方震荡，短线关键位非常清晰：上方首先关注阻力位1（5,088附近），该位若被有效 突破并站稳，意味着多头重新掌握节奏，通道上沿的目标将指向阻力位2（5,378附近），届时更可能呈现"阶梯式抬升+回踩确认"的推进方式；若5,088附近 反复受阻且宏观数据触发美元反弹，则金价容易转为"先横盘消化、再回落测试支撑"的路径，下方首要支撑关注支撑位1（4,706附近），一旦市场风险偏好 回升或去杠杆继续加速，不排除进一步回测支撑位2（4,509附近）的可能。综合来看，黄金中期结构仍偏多，但短期处于"基本面托底、资金面压制"的平衡 区间，本周更像是一场等待数据裁决的行情：在关键数据落地前，价格大概率围绕5000关口反复震荡；而数据落地后，5,088能否突破/站稳以及4,706能否守 住，将成为判断黄金进入上行趋势延伸或回撤修正阶段的核心信号。 ATFX：本周黄金的市场主题可以概括为"降息预期提供底部支撑、资金撤离削弱上行动能"，在基本面与资金面相互对冲的环境下，金价更可能以高位震荡 的方式等待关键数据给出方向。回顾上周，黄金在急跌后出现强势修复，反映避险情 ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 辛旋 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月09日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 天然橡胶日度策略报告 摘要 【行情复盘】春节长假节前一周，金属板块多头资金集中调仓，流 动性及杠杆效应引发商品系统性调整，橡胶期价在前高附近剧烈震 荡，上周海外美国1月挑战者企业裁员人数10.8万，为自2009年以 来最高的年初数据；美国12月职位空缺录得654.2万人，为2020年 9月以来新低；数据端开始显示出经济的弱势，市场的降息预期有 所回升。上海全乳胶周均价16030元/吨，周环比-60；青岛市场20 号泰标周均价1950美元/吨，周环比-6；青岛市场20号泰混周均价 15168元/吨，周环比-52/。海外产区进入 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of the TL2603 variety is to fluctuate, the medium - term trend is to fluctuate, and the intraday trend is relatively strong, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation due to the boost of safe - haven sentiment on the investment demand for national bonds [1]. - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, and TS is relatively strong, the medium - term view is to fluctuate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. Due to the weakening of the latest macro - economic indicators, the problem of insufficient effective demand has emerged, increasing the "weak reality" pressure and raising expectations of future interest rate cuts. Near the long holiday, liquidity has tightened, and the safe - haven demand has increased the allocation demand for national bonds, making national bond futures fluctuate strongly. However, the short - term expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has slowed down, and the central bank's monetary easing policy is mainly based on structural interest rate cuts, so the necessity of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is not strong, and the upward space for national bond futures is limited. In general, national bond futures will continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is relatively strong, with a view of oscillatory consolidation, and the core logic is that safe - haven sentiment boosts the investment demand for national bonds [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is relatively strong, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that national bond futures rebounded slightly in an oscillatory manner yesterday. Due to the weakening of the latest macro - economic indicators, the problem of insufficient effective demand has emerged, increasing the "weak reality" pressure and raising expectations of future interest rate cuts. Near the long holiday, liquidity has tightened, and the safe - haven demand has increased the allocation demand for national bonds, making national bond futures fluctuate strongly. However, the short - term expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has slowed down, and the central bank's monetary easing policy is mainly based on structural interest rate cuts, so the necessity of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is not strong, and the upward space for national bond futures is limited. In general, national bond futures will continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [5].

来源：华尔街情报圈 周一看上去像是"美元下跌，一切皆涨"的一个普通交易日： - 美国股市全面上涨，道琼斯指数微涨0.04%，标普500指数涨0.47%，纳斯达克指数涨0.90； 不是某个资产很强，而是美元显得特别弱——这是我们特别需要关心的。美元指数有三个时段出现加速 下跌，分别是北京时间7:00、14:00、21:25，这背后对应三个消息。 7:00，全球市场盘初时段即跌，受周末期间一则消息影响——美国财长贝森特表示，美联储不会急于缩 减资产负债表规模，或许需要长达一年的时间来敲定相关决策（回应市场担心沃什会缩减资产负债表的 传言）。 这句话的杀伤力，不只在内容，而在身份。贝森特代表财政部亲自否认"缩减资产负债表"，要知道上周 金融市场大跌，有一半原因源自"这个猜测"。美元的第一反应是"那我先别那么贵了"，不是瞬间暴跌， 而是有方向、有延续性的走弱。 有一点值得注意，这不是传统意义上的"鸽派利好"。如果是，会出现股市暴涨、风险资产狂欢、波动率 塌陷，现实是股市涨得并不夸张。市场理解的是"不是短期政策松，而是长期约束减弱"。但这对美元的 杀伤力，要比一次降息预期还大。 14:00（欧洲盘前），一则美债相关传闻 ...

Group 1 - Silver prices experienced a significant rebound, with New York silver futures rising by 8% and London spot silver increasing by 4.35% [3][10] - In the domestic market, Shanghai gold futures rose by 3.88% and Shanghai silver futures increased by 8.9%, with a further rise of 5.24% during the night session [4][11] - The increase in precious metal prices is attributed to two main factors: China's gold reserves increased to approximately 2307.6 tons, marking a continuous increase for 15 months, and a record net inflow of $19 billion into global gold ETFs in January [6][13] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the current rise in precious metal prices is a rebound from previous overselling, as indicated by the RSI indicator moving back above 30 [6][13] - The rebound in prices is also driven by a decline in the US dollar index and a rebalancing of long and short positions in the market [6][13] - The outlook for precious metals indicates a likely range-bound movement at high levels, influenced by geopolitical events and upcoming US economic data [7][14]