Economic Performance - New Zealand's GDP contracted by 0.9% in the second quarter, significantly worse than the expected contraction of 0.3% and following a revised growth of 0.9% in the first quarter [1][5] - The economy is still smaller than its level at the beginning of 2024, indicating a sluggish recovery [3] Monetary Policy Expectations - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is anticipated to lower the official cash rate (OCR) from 3% to 2.5% in upcoming meetings, with a potential 50 basis point cut in October [3][4] - Economists predict further downward risks to the terminal rate of 2.5% due to the significant economic contraction [3] Government Response and Economic Outlook - Prime Minister Christopher Luxon faces pressure to stimulate economic growth ahead of the 2026 elections, with the government attributing economic decline to global events [4] - The unemployment rate has risen to 5.2%, the highest in five years, compounded by reduced immigration and rising living costs, which have suppressed consumer spending [4] Sector Performance - The construction sector saw a 1.8% decline in output, while manufacturing output fell by 3.5%, contributing to the overall economic contraction [5] - Household spending increased by only 0.4% in the second quarter, a significant drop from the 1.4% growth in the first quarter [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage investment rating: On hold [7] - Option investment rating: Short put @ 78,000 yuan/ton [7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's interest rate meeting, the market's interest rate cut expectation was fulfilled, and copper prices declined. However, the TC price of copper remains low, and the demand outlook is not as pessimistic as in the middle of the year. When the price drops below 80,000 yuan/ton, the downstream restocking sentiment may be stimulated [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On September 17, 2025, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 81,010 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 80,560 yuan/ton, a -0.40% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract in the night session was 79,980 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 79,880 yuan/ton, a 0.84% decrease from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot premium of electrolytic copper continued to weaken. The average price of SMM1 copper was 80,410 - 80,790 yuan/ton, with a premium of 60 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan) over the main contract. The market procurement sentiment was low, and holders actively lowered prices to sell [2] Important Information Summary - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%. After the FOMC statement, the market expected a more than 90% chance of a rate cut in October [3] Mining End - Australia's Orion Minerals signed a non - binding term sheet with a Glencore subsidiary to provide $200 million - $250 million in financing for its Prieska copper - zinc project in South Africa. Different countries have introduced different mining regulatory measures [4] Smelting and Import - Canadian miner Highland Copper's Copperwood copper project in the US received a "non - binding interest letter" from the US Export - Import Bank, with a potential financing of up to $250 million [5] Consumption - From January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12.6%. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 37.3% and 36.7% [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,675 tons to 149,775 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 401 tons to 33,291 tons. On September 15, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 154,200 tons, an increase of 9,900 tons from the previous week [6] Table Data - The table shows data on copper prices, premiums, inventories, warehouse receipts, spreads, and arbitrage ratios from different time points (September 18, 2025; September 17, 2025; September 11, 2025; August 19, 2025) [26][27][28]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to be prone to rising and hard to fall in the third and fourth quarters of this year. If short - term bullish factors are realized and the price corrects, mid - term long positions can be considered below 79,500 yuan, or put options below 78,000 yuan can be sold [1]. - For aluminum, short - term fundamentals are acceptable. In a low - inventory situation, hold positions on dips and pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1]. - Zinc shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern that may further differentiate. Short - term single - side positions can be used as a short - side allocation, and internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued to hold [2]. - Nickel has a weak short - term fundamental situation, and geopolitical risks have been alleviated to some extent. Continuous attention should be paid to the situation of the Indonesian forestry department taking over part of the world's largest nickel mine [3][4]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak. The short - term macro - aspect follows the anti - involution expectation, and attention should be paid to the situation of the Indonesian forestry department taking over part of the world's largest nickel mine [6]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan [7]. - Tin's short - term domestic fundamentals maintain a situation of weak supply and demand. Short - term observation is recommended, and long positions can be held near the cost line in the medium - long term [9]. - Industrial silicon is in a tight - balance state in September and October. In the medium - long term, prices are expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom anchored by seasonal marginal costs [12]. - For lithium carbonate, in the context of a seasonal peak season, the monthly balance turns to continuous de - stocking after CATL's production reduction, but the de - stocking amplitude is small. Before the supply - side disturbance is realized, the price has strong downward support in the peak season [14]. Summary by Metal Types Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan and broke through on Thursday and Friday. The fundamentals remained resilient. Domestic social inventories did not accumulate despite increased imported copper arrivals, and downstream production was in the stage of consuming finished - product inventories. The domestic spot premium declined slightly, and the external - internal positive arbitrage had room. Macro - economically, copper benefits from the global fiscal and monetary double - loosening [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increment from January to July. Downstream construction improved, but overseas demand declined significantly. Inventories are expected to decline in September [1]. Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The domestic TC decreased slightly, and the imported TC increased. Smelting production decreased slightly in September due to concentrated maintenance. Overseas mine supply increased more than expected. Domestic demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience, and overseas European demand was average. The domestic social inventory continued to rise, and the overseas LME inventory decreased [2]. Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remained at a high level, the demand was weak overall, and the premium was stable recently. Domestic inventories increased slightly, and overseas warehouse receipts increased. Geopolitical risks in Indonesia have been alleviated, and attention should be paid to the situation of the Indonesian forestry department taking over part of the world's largest nickel mine [3][4]. Stainless Steel - Supply is expected to gradually resume as northern steel mills are affected by the military parade. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. Costs include stable ferronickel prices and slightly rising ferrochrome prices. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan remained stable, and warehouse receipts decreased slightly [6]. Lead - This week, lead prices rose due to macro - factors. Supply was expected to be tight, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000 tons. Demand improved slightly, but inventories were at a high level. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan [7]. Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. The supply of raw materials was tight in the short term, and it is expected to gradually increase after October. The demand for solder was limited, and the domestic inventory fluctuated. The LME inventory rebounded from a low level. It is recommended to observe in the short term and hold long positions near the cost line in the medium - long term [9]. Industrial Silicon - This week, leading enterprises in Xinjiang continued to resume production. Sichuan and Yunnan had stable production. In September and October, supply and demand were in a tight - balance state. In the medium - long term, the industrial silicon capacity was still in significant excess, and prices were expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [12]. Lithium Carbonate - This week, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. Affected by the expectation of CATL's production resumption, the futures market declined significantly in the middle of the week. The contradiction lies in the background of an uncompleted large - scale capacity expansion cycle and a still - surplus static supply - demand pattern, with resource - side compliance disturbances. In the peak season, the monthly balance turns to de - stocking after CATL's production reduction, but the de - stocking amplitude is small [14].

Core Insights - In H1 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 5.57%, while the non-ferrous metals index rose by 17.00%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite by 11.42 percentage points. The steel index increased by 3.09%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite by 2.49 percentage points [2][3] - Commodity prices for precious and industrial metals have been on the rise, while energy metals and steel prices have seen a decline [2][3] - The non-ferrous sector achieved revenue of 1.8197 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 95.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.28% [2][3] Industrial Metals - The industrial metals sector benefited from tariff adjustments and expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to a profit growth of 38% in H1 2025. The sector's total revenue reached 1.3586 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.08%, with a net profit of 69.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38% [2][3] - In Q2 2025, the industrial metals sector generated revenue of 727.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.97% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.4%, with a net profit of 36.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12% [2][3] Precious Metals - The precious metals sector saw revenue of 188.25 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year growth of 27.0%, and a net profit of 9.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 65.6% [3] - In Q2 2025, the sector's revenue was 104.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.6%, with a net profit of 5.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 48.4% [3] Energy Metals - The energy metals sector reported revenue of 81.24 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, and a net profit of 5.31 billion yuan, marking a return to profitability [3][4] - In Q2 2025, the sector's revenue was 43.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.5%, with a net profit of 3.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.9% [3][4] Minor Metals - The minor metals sector experienced a decline in revenue, achieving 137.7 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 37.6%, with a net profit of 7.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.1% [4] - In Q2 2025, the sector's revenue was 73.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.4%, with a net profit of 3.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.6% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.0% [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points this morning, officially restarting the rate - cut cycle, with the weakening employment market as the main basis. The overall interest - rate decision and tone were in line with expectations. The median forecast of the interest rate at the end of 2025 dropped to 3.625%, implying two more rate cuts in October and December this year. The median forecast for 2026 is 3.38%, suggesting one rate cut next year but with a small margin. The median expected interest rates for 2027 and 2028 are both 3.13%. The Fed maintained its balance - sheet reduction, and the market expects QT to pause at the end of the year [8]. - Powell is inclined to emphasize employment risks but is not completely relaxed about inflation. The market's expectation of rate cuts within this year is basically fixed after this FOMC meeting, and attention should be paid to long - term expectations, which are affected by fundamentals, Fed leadership changes, and the Fed's independence [9][10]. - For gold, although the current meeting is in line with expectations, the upside space may be limited after this year's rate cuts. For copper, the price adjustment space is small, and it will maintain a volatile trend. For生猪, after the policy expectations are fulfilled, the weakness of the spot market is difficult to change [12][14][22]. Summaries by Directory Fed Rate - Cut Analysis - **Rate - Cut Decision**: The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, restarting the rate - cut cycle. The median interest - rate forecast at the end of 2025 is 3.625%, and there are expected to be two more rate cuts in October and December. The median forecast for 2026 is 3.38%, with one rate cut expected [8]. - **Economic Forecasts**: The expected real GDP year - on - year growth rates for 2025 - 2027 are 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9% respectively, up from the previous period. The core PCE year - on - year expectations are 3.1%, 2.6%, and 2.1% respectively, also up but with a relatively mild long - term outlook. The unemployment rate expectations are 4.5%, 4.4%, and 4.3% respectively, showing a cautious view on employment this year [8]. - **Powell's Speech**: Powell is concerned about employment risks, as the unemployment rate has slightly increased, new job creation has decreased, and both supply and demand in the labor market are weak. Regarding inflation, the impact of US government policy changes on the economy and inflation remains to be seen [9]. Sector Analysis Gold - **Market Reaction**: After the FOMC meeting, the initial market reaction was positive, with gold rising and the dollar and interest rates falling. However, after Powell's press conference, the trend reversed. The price of gold reaching 3700 was already pricing in three rate cuts this year, and the dot - plot further confirmed this. The long - term rate - cut path for 2026 and 2027 did not change significantly, and there may be a significant rebound in long - term interest rates after this year's rate cuts. The upside space for gold is limited [12]. Copper - **Macro and Fundamental Factors**: The Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut sent a mixed signal. High copper prices have suppressed downstream demand and terminal consumption, but price drops may promote restocking. The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the spot TC remains weak, leading to an expansion of smelting losses. The copper output in September is expected to decline. Overall, the macro and micro factors cannot form a resonance, and the copper price will maintain a volatile trend with limited downward adjustment space [14][30]. Zinc - **Market Conditions**: The zinc market is in a state of consolidation. The closing prices of the Shanghai zinc main contract and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk showed small changes. The inventory and other indicators also had minor fluctuations. The trend intensity is neutral [33]. Lead - **Price Support**: The reduction in lead inventory supports the price to fluctuate. The closing prices of the Shanghai lead main contract and the LME lead 3M electronic disk increased slightly. The inventory of lead decreased, which is conducive to price stability [36]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Trends**: Aluminum is expected to trade in a range, alumina is expected to rebound from the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The relevant indicators such as prices, trading volumes, and inventories of these products have shown different degrees of change. The trend intensity of all three is neutral [44][45]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel**: The contradictions in the nickel smelting end are not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks in the ore end. The prices and relevant indicators of nickel and related products in the industrial chain have changed slightly. The trend intensity is neutral [46]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between short - term and long - term logics, and the steel price may fluctuate. The prices and trading volumes of stainless - steel futures have changed, and the trend intensity is neutral [46]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Situation**: Driven by strong energy - storage demand, the carbonate - lithium market will operate in a volatile manner. The prices and trading volumes of carbonate - lithium futures contracts have changed, and the spot price has increased. The trend intensity is neutral [53][54]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to market - sentiment changes. The price of industrial - silicon futures has increased slightly, and the inventory has changed. The trend intensity is neutral [56][57]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price has increased slightly. The prices and relevant indicators of polysilicon futures and related products in the industrial chain have changed. The trend intensity of polysilicon is 1 (slightly bullish) [57][59]. Iron Ore - **Market Volatility**: The iron - ore market has repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations. The futures price increased slightly, and the spot prices of different types of iron ore remained relatively stable. The trend intensity is neutral [60]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Rebar**: It will trade in a wide range. The futures price increased slightly, and the spot prices in different regions decreased slightly. The basis and spread indicators have changed. The trend intensity is neutral [62][63]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: It will also trade in a wide range. The futures price decreased slightly, and the spot prices in different regions decreased. The basis and spread indicators have changed. The trend intensity is neutral [63]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Trends**: Boosted by macro sentiment, both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese will show a relatively strong and volatile trend. The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased, and the spot prices changed. The trend intensity of both is 1 (slightly bullish) [67][69]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Fluctuations**: Both the coke and coking - coal markets have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations. The futures prices of coke and coking coal decreased slightly, and the spot prices of coking coal increased while the coke price decreased. The basis and spread indicators have changed. The trend intensity of both is neutral [70][71][72]. Logs - **Market Performance**: The log market will fluctuate repeatedly, but no detailed data or analysis is provided in the report [73].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to shift towards low-risk, high-dividend sectors, making the allocation in non-ferrous and steel sectors timely. The operating performance of most sub-sectors in the non-ferrous and steel industry has shown significant improvement in both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter comparisons [15][16] - Copper prices have surpassed $10,000 per ton, with expectations for profitability and dividend rates to gradually increase for copper mining companies. For instance, Zangge Mining reported a mid-term dividend of 1.569 billion yuan, with a dividend rate significantly raised to 87% [15][16] - Aluminum prices have risen, leading to upward revisions in profitability and dividend expectations. The aluminum price has reached 21,000 yuan per ton, and companies like Tianshan Aluminum have increased their dividend rates to 50% [16] - The rare earth sector is anticipated to enter a new phase of price increases due to the resumption of bidding by downstream magnetic material manufacturers, with companies like Jinkeli Yongci reporting a mid-term dividend rate of 81% [16] - Steel companies are expected to enhance their dividend capabilities as profitability improves and capital expenditures decline. For example, Huazhong Steel has seen an increase in shareholding by Xintai Life Insurance, which plans to continue increasing its stake [16] Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous and Steel Industry - The report highlights the positive outlook for low-risk, high-dividend sub-sectors within the non-ferrous and steel industry, driven by improving operating performance and rising commodity prices [15][16] - The copper market is experiencing tight supply, pushing prices above $10,000 per ton, which is expected to enhance profitability and dividends for mining companies [15][16] - The aluminum sector is benefiting from a favorable supply-demand balance, with prices rising and companies increasing their dividend rates [16] - The rare earth market is poised for growth as bidding resumes in downstream sectors, leading to improved profitability and dividend stability [16] - Steel companies are likely to see enhanced profitability and dividend capabilities due to reduced capital expenditures and improved market conditions [16]

当地时间17日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次降息。 消息一出，投资者开始评估美联储利率决定和预测，美股闻风而动。与此同时，美联储能否维持其独立 性再次引发外界担忧。 就业增长放缓 风险平衡变化 美联储降息 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会17日发布声明称，今年上半年美国经济活动增长有所放缓，就业增 长放缓，失业率小幅上升，通货膨胀率上升并在一定程度上保持高位。委员会寻求长期实现就业最大化 和2%的通货膨胀率。而经济前景的不确定性依然很高。委员会注意到了任务所面临的风险，并判断就 业的下行风险已经上升。为支持委员会达成目标，并考虑到风险平衡的转变，委员会决定将联邦基金利 率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。 美联储预测显示，到年底将再降息50个基点，未来两年每年再降息25个基点。此外，美联储17日发布最 新一期经济前景预期，其中的"点阵图"显示，19名美联储官员中有9名预计今年将再进行两次降息，2位 预计再降息一次，6位认为不会进一步降息。 鲍 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by macro - factors and fundamentals. The copper price has corrected due to concerns about the Fed's interest - rate decision, and the supply is tight while the consumption shows a weakening trend [8] - The alumina market has a weakening fundamental trend. The import window has opened narrowly, and the market price reduction may take some time [15] - The electrolytic aluminum market has a tight overseas supply and a marginal recovery in domestic downstream demand. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate and rise after a correction [19][20] - The casting aluminum alloy market is affected by policy changes. The supply is tight, and the alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [27] - The zinc market has a small reduction in domestic refined zinc supply in September, and the overseas market has some support for the zinc price. The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term [34][39] - The lead market has an upward - moving price center due to downstream pre - holiday stocking. However, there are risks of price decline if the import window opens or the production of recycling enterprises resumes [41] - The nickel market has a relatively optimistic macro - atmosphere, but the LME inventory increase indicates an oversupply of refined nickel in China, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [47] - The stainless - steel market is expected to remain high and oscillate due to the approaching Fed's interest - rate cut, positive domestic policies, and the approaching consumption peak season [53] - The tin market is affected by the Fed's interest - rate decision. The supply is tight, and the demand may be postponed. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [60] - The industrial silicon market may turn into a supply - surplus state if the rumored production resumption occurs. The price is at a relatively low valuation with a bottom support, and long positions can be considered at low prices [67] - The polysilicon market has a long - term upward price trend, but there is a short - term weakening due to the slow progress of capacity integration. The price of the 11 - contract may return to the spot price [72] - The lithium carbonate market has an optimistic atmosphere due to the Fed's interest - rate cut. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the price has support from the spot market [77] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 80,560 yuan/ton, down 0.65%, and the open interest of the Shanghai copper index decreased by 11,113 lots to 510,000 lots. The downstream purchasing sentiment was poor, and the spot premiums in different regions showed different trends [2] - **Important Information**: In August, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. Anglo American and Codelco will jointly operate mines in Chile, and Australia's Orion Minerals may get funds for its project. China's copper product output in August reached a multi - year high [3][4][5] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - factors and supply - demand fundamentals affect the copper price. The supply is tight, and the consumption shows a weakening trend [8] - **Trading Strategy**: The copper price has fallen from a high level. Hold long positions in cross - market arbitrage and wait and see for options [13] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2511 contract fell 48 yuan to 2,916 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed a downward trend [10] - **Related Information**: Guinea's Ningba Mining Company may resume production. The industry's average profit in August increased, and the operating capacity and开工 rate of alumina in China changed [11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: The alumina market has a weakening fundamental trend, and the market price reduction may take some time [15] - **Trading Strategy**: After the "anti - involution" sentiment fades, the price will return to a bearish fundamental pattern [16] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2510 contract fell 80 yuan to 20,910 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased [18] - **Related Information**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 75 basis points by the end of the year. The electrolytic aluminum inventory remained unchanged, and some capacity replacement plans were announced [18] - **Trading Logic**: The market is cautious before the Fed's interest - rate meeting. The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic downstream demand is recovering marginally [19] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and long positions can be considered after a correction. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 70 yuan to 20,435 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions were stable, and the import price decreased [24] - **Related Information**: Policy changes have affected the recycling aluminum industry, and the average cost and profit of the casting aluminum alloy industry in August changed. The casting aluminum alloy futures standard - warehouse receipt generation business will start on September 22 [24][25][26] - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes have affected the supply, and the downstream demand is increasing. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [27] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and long positions can be considered after a correction. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2511 contract fell 0.13% to 22,285 yuan/ton. The downstream purchasing sentiment was weak, and the spot premium increase was limited [32] - **Related Information**: The construction of the Zhugongtang lead - zinc mine project in Hezhang County has made breakthroughs [33] - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly in September, and the overseas market has some support for the zinc price. Pay attention to the impact of macro - factors [34] - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [39] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2510 contract rose 0.12% to 17,100 yuan/ton. The market purchasing activity increased, and the supply of recycled refined lead was scarce [37] - **Related Information**: The scrap battery price is expected to remain firm, and the lead ingot inventory increased [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The lead price has moved upward due to downstream pre - holiday stocking, but there are risks of price decline [41] - **Trading Strategy**: The Shanghai lead price may operate within a range in the short term, and beware of the price decline risk [42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai nickel contract NI2511 fell 940 yuan to 121,990 yuan/ton. The spot premiums remained unchanged [43] - **Related Information**: The Tatty nickel mine will restart, and some companies have investment or acquisition plans [44] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - atmosphere is relatively optimistic, but the LME inventory increase indicates an oversupply of refined nickel in China [47] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [48][49][50] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2511 contract fell 120 yuan to 12,935 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [52] - **Important Information**: Taiwan's Yieh United is applying for an anti - dumping investigation, and Japan has launched an anti - dumping investigation on stainless - steel products [53] - **Logic Analysis**: The approaching Fed's interest - rate cut, positive domestic policies, and the approaching consumption peak season support the stainless - steel price [53] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to remain high and oscillate. Wait and see for arbitrage [55] Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 272,540 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton or 0.07%. The spot market atmosphere was average [57] - **Related Information**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates, and the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased in August [58][59] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is tight, and the demand may be postponed. Pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision [60] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate within a range. Wait and see for options [61][62] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main industrial silicon futures contract oscillated strongly and closed at 8,965 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The spot price increased [64][65] - **Related Information**: An important article mentioned measures to promote the construction of a unified national market [66] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The supply and demand situation may change if the rumored production resumption occurs. The price has a bottom support [67] - **Strategy**: Long positions can be considered at low prices [68] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main polysilicon futures contract oscillated narrowly and closed at 53,490 yuan/ton, down 2.09%. The spot price range moved up [69][71] - **Related Information**: The national standard committee has completed the solicitation of opinions on relevant standards [71] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The long - term price trend is upward, but there is a short - term weakening. The 11 - contract price may return to the spot price [72] - **Strategy**: Buy at low prices and set stop - loss and take - profit points. Conduct reverse arbitrage on the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Take profit on selling out - of - the - money put options [73] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract rose 20 yuan to 73,640 yuan/ton. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [74] - **Important Information**: BYD launched a new electric - bus platform, and a new lithium - powder production project was proposed [75] - **Logic Analysis**: The market atmosphere is optimistic due to the Fed's interest - rate cut. The short - term supply and demand are both strong [77] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate and strengthen. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [78][79][80]

特朗普发动关税战以来，美国金融市场屡受重创，象征美国经济标志的美联储正迎来一次关键性的大变革。 9月17日，美联储就要召开联邦公开市场委员会会议了，该会议也被称为FOMC会议。 FOMC隶属于联邦储备系统，主要任务是决定美国货币政策，通过货币调控，达到经济增长，及物价稳定，可以说，这种会议对美国的影响是巨大的。 会议召开前夕，一组来自劳动力市场的数据彻底改变了市场对美联储货币政策的预期调整计划。 美国劳工部于9月12日公布的非农就业年度修正数据显示，2025年3月，基期的非农就业总数被大幅下修91.1万人，是自1979年以来最大的一次年度修正。 配合此前发布的数据，这一数据直接推动市场对美联储9月降息的预期达到了板上钉钉的程度。联邦基金期货市场已定价，9月将降息25个基点，全年来看， 市场押注降息总次数达2.81次（约70.3个基点）。 更重要的是，特朗普派理事加入会议，美联储独立性受到了重创。 事情是这样的，9月10日，美国参议院银行委员会批准了特朗普提名的美联储理事人选米兰，他将于9月16日接受参议院全体投票。由于共和党控制多数席 位，其通过没有任何悬念。 这意味着，米兰或将参与9月17日的FOMC会议， ...

对于铜价走势，金瑞期货表示，降息预期继续支撑，并且近期矿山有扰动，预计短期价格保有一定韧 性，延续高位波动。潜在利空是物流回流，但CL价差仍为正，预计兑现偏慢。 （文华综合） 近期海外铜矿端不时传来干扰，国内铜精矿加工费低位徘徊，原料端偏紧仍然限制冶炼端增量。伴随着 沪铜站稳80000关口，国内精废价差有所扩大，废铜对精铜的消费替代性有所增加，高价对于铜需求的 抑制有所显现，但国内社库累积仍然有限，下方支撑仍然存在。 沪铜早间小幅低开，日内跌幅略有扩大，收盘下跌0.65%。高价对下游需求有一定抑制，美联储议息会 议落地前夕市场情绪谨慎，沪铜略有回落。 由于美联储本月降息预期较强，最近美指持续弱势运行，有色走势受振。目前市场消化本次降息25个基 点的可能性，鲍威尔讲话传递的政策前景成为关注焦点，靴子落地前夕，市场情绪整体谨慎，贵金属行 情回落，铜价也略有下跌。 ...