青岛港口库存继续小幅下降 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约13725元/吨，较前一日变动+75元/吨。NR主力合约12050元/吨，较前一日变动+25 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格13700元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13640元/吨， 较前一日变动+40元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1710美元/吨，较前一日变动+10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号 标胶1660美元/吨，较前一日变动+20美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11600元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/ 吨。浙江传化BR9000市场价11450元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 近期市场资讯：QinRex据中国海关总署6月9日公布的数据显示，2025年5月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）合 计60.7万吨，较2024年同期的48.5万吨增加25.2%。2025年1-5月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）共计347.6万吨， 较2024年同期的281.4万吨增加23.5%。 QinRex最新数据显示，2025年前4个月美国进口轮胎共计9719万条，同比增加6.1%。其中，乘用车胎进口同比增3% 至 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In May, the downstream sales of the automotive industry increased, with the domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reaching 1.021 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28.2% and a month-on-month increase of 12.1%. From January to May, the domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles totaled 4.351 million units, a year-on-year increase of 34.1% [1]. - On June 9th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Civil Affairs issued a notice on carrying out pilot projects for intelligent elderly care service robots. The market scale of China's intelligent elderly care robots is expanding rapidly, and Founder Securities expects the market to reach 50 billion yuan in 2025 [1]. - Attention should be paid to the policy promotion in the insurance industry. The General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued an opinion on further ensuring and improving people's livelihood, proposing multiple measures such as canceling household registration restrictions for social insurance participation, and increasing the supply of affordable housing [2]. 3. Summary by Industry Production Industry - **Automotive**: In May, the downstream sales of the automotive industry increased, with significant growth in the sales of new energy passenger vehicles [1]. - **Intelligent Elderly Care**: The market scale of intelligent elderly care robots is expanding rapidly, and relevant pilot projects are being carried out [1]. Service Industry - **Insurance**: Attention should be paid to policy promotion, and relevant policies aim to improve people's livelihood and social security [2]. Upstream Industry - **Energy**: International oil prices rebounded significantly compared to last week [2]. - **Chemical**: The prices of soda ash and urea declined significantly [2]. - **Agriculture**: Egg prices fluctuated [2]. Midstream Industry - **Chemical**: Urea prices are currently at a high level [2]. - **Agriculture**: The operating rate of pig product processing has been at a high level recently [2]. Downstream Industry - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are the same as the same period last year, at a near - three - year low [2]. - **Service**: The number of domestic and international flights has decreased [2]. 4. Industry Data Tracking - **Industry Credit Spreads**: Data on industry credit spreads for various industries such as农牧渔林,采掘, and化工 are provided, showing their changes over different time periods [47]. - **Key Industry Price Indicators**: Price data for various industries including agriculture, energy, and chemical are provided, along with their year - on - year changes and trends in the past 5 days [48].

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the futures price rebounded while the spot price stabilized, with the basis narrowing significantly. The fundamentals changed little, but the overall sentiment improved recently. The price bottom is easily affected by various news, and the near - month contract has high positions, leading to large short - term fluctuations. Upstream enterprises can sell on rallies for hedging [1][2]. - For polysilicon, the futures price declined, and the spot price was weakly stable. The fundamentals are weak. As the number of warehouse receipts increases, the delivery game weakens, and the futures price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the subsequent increase in warehouse receipts [3][5][10]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On June 8, 2025, the main contract 2507 of industrial silicon futures opened at 7,245 yuan/ton and closed at 7,475 yuan/ton, up 2.33% from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2507 was 177,663 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on June 9 was 60,179 lots, a decrease of 394 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon was stable. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 8,000 - 8,300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8,400 - 9,000 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 7,500 - 7,700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7,500 - 7,700 yuan/ton. The prices of individual silicon in Xinjiang and Sichuan continued to decline, while those in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Shanghai, and the northwest remained stable, as did the price of 97 silicon [1]. - The DMC price of silicone was 10,900 - 11,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The weekend quotation of Shandong monomer enterprises decreased by 400 yuan/ton to 11,000 yuan/ton, and the bid - winning price dropped to 10,800 yuan/ton. After the price decline, the transaction center of the DMC market decreased [1]. Polysilicon - On June 8, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures opened at 34,620 yuan/ton and closed at 34,105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.24% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 64,383 lots (65,179 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 123,726 lots [3][7]. - The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 32.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 30.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 29.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 32.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 35.00 - 38.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 33.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg [3][7]. - The polysilicon inventory was 26.90 (a 0.37% month - on - month increase), the silicon wafer inventory was 20.02GW (a 7.80% month - on - month increase), the weekly polysilicon output was 22,000 tons (a 1.85% month - on - month increase), and the silicon wafer output was 13.04GW (a 2.67% month - on - month decrease) [3][4][7]. - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.92 yuan/piece (a decrease of 0.03 yuan/piece), N - type 210mm was 1.28 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.08 yuan/piece [4][7]. - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W (a decrease of 0.01 yuan/W), PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.25 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W [4][8][9]. - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W (an increase of 0.01 yuan/W), and N - type 210mm was 0.70 - 0.70 yuan/W (an increase of 0.01 yuan/W) [4][9]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations, and upstream enterprises can sell on rallies for hedging. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Futures - spot: None. - Options: None [2]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Futures - spot: None. - Options: None [5][8][10].

自糖产业期现日报 反期货 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月10日 刘珂 Z0016336 | 指标 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 白糖2601 | રકેતી ર | રકેવા | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 白糖2509 | 5734 | 5735 | -1 | -0.02% | | | ICE原糖主力 | 16.70 | 16.51 | 0.19 | 1.15% | 美分/磅 | | 白糖1-9价差 | -144 | -145 | 1 | 0.69% | 元/吨 | | 主力合约持仓量 | 341231 | 342408 | -1177 | -0.34% | 글 | | 仓单数量 | 29443 | 29443 | O | 0.00% | ड़ॉर्स | | 有效预报 | 0 | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | | | 现货市场价格 | | | | | | | 指标 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | 南宁 | 6080 | ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价重心继续上移，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘上涨 0.71 美元至 | | | | 65.29 美元/桶，涨幅 1.10%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘上涨 0.57 美元 | | | | 至 67.04 美元/桶，涨幅 0.86%。SC2507 以 479.3 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 5.5 元/桶，涨幅为 1.16%。调查显示，上月欧佩克石油产量为每日 | | | | 2675 万桶，较 4 月总产量增加 15 万桶/日。根据 OPEC+八个成 | | | | 员国关于 5 月产量的协议，其中五个 OPEC 成员国阿尔及利亚、 | | | | 伊拉克、科威特、沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋应将产量提高 31 万桶/日。 | | | 原油 | 这五个国家的实际增产为 18 万桶/日。5 月份我国进口原油 4660 | 震荡 | | | 万吨，环比下降 3.0%，同比下降 0.8%。1-5 月份，中国累计进口 | | | | 原油 2296 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-06-10 需求端表现疲软，双焦震荡运行 钢材：市场情绪放缓，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢主力期货合约收于2981元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3095元/吨，期货交投氛围较淡，现货市场成交情况一 般，昨日全国建材成交10.2万吨。 供需与逻辑：整体来看，钢材整体持续去库，原材料价格偏低使得钢厂利润尚可，但淡季临近，建材消费或将逐 步回落，历史地位的库存对建材价格形成支撑。板材维持韧性，较好的去库表现，支撑着板材价格。国内低价优 势下，出口钢材韧性较强，虽然国内通过出口分流很大程度上抵消了对美出口下滑的影响，但是对美高关税的影 响仍旧不可忽视，钢材价格整体维持稳定。后续关注供给侧政策落地情况，同时关注新一轮中美会谈最新消息。 策略 单边：无 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 跨期：无 期现：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪不佳，铁矿弱势下跌 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格弱势下跌。截至收盘，铁矿石主力2509合约收于703元/吨，跌幅0.71%。现 货方面，主流品种价格小幅下跌，贸易商报价积极性一般，市场交投情绪一 ...

2025年06月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地压力分歧较大，震荡磨底 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：驱动暂时不强，区间震荡 | 2 | | 豆粕：天气正常、美豆收跌，连粕或跟随回调 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面仍震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：低位整理 | 8 | | 棉花：继续受市场情绪影响 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：产业仍存抵抗情绪 | 11 | | 生猪：降重初启动，等待现货印证 | 12 | | 花生：关注现货 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 10 日 棕榈油：产地压力分歧较大，震荡磨底 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,182 | 涨跌幅 0.89% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,166 | 涨跌幅 -0.20% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,766 | 0.36% ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-10 再传减产，EG震荡偏弱 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4256元/吨（较前一交易日变动-5元/吨，幅度-0.12%），EG华东市场现货价4380 元/吨（较前一交易日变动-20元/吨，幅度-0.45%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）115元/吨（环比-8元/吨）。 长丝企业将继续第三轮减产方案，瓶片可能也将进一步减产，产业链价格震荡下跌。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-37美元/吨（环比-3美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为80元/吨（环比-30 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为63.4万吨（环比+1.3万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为59.8万吨（环比+2.1万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数10.1万吨，港口库存平稳略增； 本周华东主港计划到港总数12.8万吨，中性。 整体基本面供需逻辑： 供应端，卫星、恒力等几套大装置检修时间较长，6月国内供应端恢复幅度有限，供需结 构依旧表现良性，但是仓单陆续注销流出后场内可流转现货将得到一定补充；需求端，聚酯减产下需求有所回 ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-06-10 市场短期矛盾有限，盘面震荡运行 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.75%，报2927元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.4%，报3514 元/吨。 原油价格在欧佩克会议后连续反弹，短期基本面尚可，市场存在一定支撑，但中期仍面临平衡表转为过剩的压力， 因此上方存在阻力。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，目前整体市场矛盾有限。高硫燃料油方面，随着夏季临近，中东、埃及等地发电端需 求逐步提升，或提振亚洲高硫油市场氛围，市场短期存在支撑。但中期来看，由于高硫油裂解价差偏高，下游炼 厂端需求受到压制，叠加欧佩克加速增产的计划，在未来发电终端需求回落后市场将开始面临压力，需要裂解价 差下跌来吸引炼厂端的弹性需求。低硫燃料油方面，短期供应压力有限，国内保税港口库存偏低，市场结构持稳 运行。但随着国内炼厂检修季结束，预计低硫燃料油国产量将逐渐回升，市场偏紧的状况或边际缓和。而站在中 期视角，低硫燃料油仍面临船燃端需求份额被替代的趋势。 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产不及预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-06-10 盘面区间震荡，市场支撑仍存 市场分析 1、6月9日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3488元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨10元/吨，涨幅 0.29%；持仓204621手，环比上涨23529手，成交263548手，环比上涨145776手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3800—4091元/吨；山东，3470—3650元/吨；华南，3460—3500元/吨； 华东，3580—3650元/吨。 昨日华北以及华南地区沥青现货价格有所上涨，山东地区沥青现货价格下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格以持稳为主。 盘面则延续区间震荡，呈现下游支撑但向上驱动不足的状态。就沥青自身基本面而言，供需两弱格局延续，终端 需求总体表现欠佳，进入6月份，北方地区气温适宜，部分基建项目进入施工期，但缺乏超季节性的增长动力；而 南方地区进入梅雨季节，频繁降雨天气导致道路施工受阻，抑制沥青终端消费。与此同时，目前市场供应增量有 限，整体开工率与库存均处于低位区间，叠加成本端的支撑，市场压力有限，但需求端改善乏力依然制约了市场 的上行空间。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：逢低多BU2507-25 ...